Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [9]. Core Insights - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of $198 million, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, and a net profit of $12 million, benefiting from a decrease in foreign exchange losses, thus turning from a loss to a profit [2][6]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the international Chinese dining market, leveraging its unique service model, strong brand power, and rapid localization capabilities [2][6]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of $44.06 million, $55.15 million, and $63.41 million from 2025 to 2027, indicating strong growth potential in the hot pot industry internationally [2][6]. Revenue and Profitability - The company's revenue from its main business segments in Q1 2025 showed steady growth: Haidilao restaurant operations increased by 4.5%, takeaway business by 37.9%, and other businesses by 22.7% [6]. - The average daily sales per restaurant reached $17,800, a year-on-year increase of 1.71%, while same-store sales grew by 0.34% [6]. - The overall customer spending per visit decreased by 2.8% to $24.20, attributed to the company's pricing adjustments and menu changes [6]. Store Expansion and Network - The company opened 4 new Haidilao restaurants in Q1 2025, while closing 3 underperforming locations, bringing the total number of stores to 123 [6]. - The company continues to expand its presence in Southeast Asia, East Asia, North America, and other regions, with a net increase of 1 store in each of these areas compared to the same period in 2024 [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Haidilao (06862.HK) [1] Core Views - The company is focusing on steady progress and active advancement, with expectations for revenue growth and profit improvement through various strategic initiatives [8] - The "Red Pomegranate" plan has shown positive results, with the company successfully incubating new brands and expanding its store network [8] - The company is enhancing its operational model through a bottom-up site selection mechanism and strict control over franchisee standards [8] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to grow from 41,622 million RMB in 2023 to 47,244 million RMB by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 3.62% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 4,499 million RMB in 2023 to 5,269 million RMB in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of about 4.77% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 0.81 RMB in 2023 to 0.95 RMB in 2027 [1] Operational Strategies - The company is implementing a dual management model and exclusive customer manager system to optimize its management practices [8] - A strict selection mechanism for franchisees is in place, ensuring quality and operational capability [8] - Digital upgrades and supply chain optimization are being pursued through the use of big data and AI technologies [8]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a positive financial performance for Q1 2025, with a revenue increase and a significant turnaround from losses to profits [1][2] Financial Performance - Revenue for Q1 2025 reached $19.8 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.4% [1] - Shareholders' profit amounted to $11.938 million, a recovery from a loss of $4.457 million in the same period last year [1] - Basic earnings per share were $0.02 [1] Operational Adjustments - The company opened 4 new Haidilao restaurants while closing 3 underperforming ones, resulting in a total of 123 restaurants as of March 31, 2025 [1] - The overall average table turnover rate was 3.9 times per day, with same-store turnover at 4.0 times per day, both unchanged from the previous year [1] - Total customer traffic exceeded 7.8 million, a 6.8% increase compared to 7.3 million in the same period last year [1] Strategic Focus - The CEO emphasized a proactive adjustment of business strategies, including better pricing, more affordable portions, and enhanced dining experiences to increase customer loyalty [2] - The company is committed to long-term investments in employee welfare and team building, despite short-term pressures on operating margins [2] - Future plans include further enhancing the "different Haidilao" experience through product, decor, and operational upgrades, as well as advancing the "Pomegranate Plan" to diversify product offerings and expand market share [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strategic expansion of Haidilao into the bakery sector through its new brand "拾㧚耍· SCHWASUA," highlighting the challenges and opportunities in the retail landscape, particularly in the context of the company's "Red Pomegranate Plan" aimed at overcoming growth bottlenecks in its core hotpot business [4][7][18]. Group 1: Market Context and Brand Launch - During the May Day holiday, Haidilao launched its bakery brand "拾㧚耍· SCHWASUA" in a prime location in Hangzhou, offering high-quality products at competitive prices, which quickly attracted consumer attention [4][6]. - The bakery's pricing strategy features over 60% of products priced below 10 yuan, with the most expensive item not exceeding 30 yuan, significantly lower than similar brands [6][8]. Group 2: Strategic Rationale for Expansion - The Chinese baking market is projected to grow from 561.4 billion yuan in 2023 to over 850 billion yuan by 2029, with an annual growth rate exceeding 9%, making it an attractive sector for Haidilao's diversification [7]. - The "Red Pomegranate Plan" is seen as a strategic extension to address the declining table turnover rate and falling customer spending in Haidilao's core business, allowing the company to reach a broader customer base through multiple brands [7][11]. Group 3: Competitive Advantages - Haidilao's strong supply chain integration allows for cost optimization across the entire production process, ensuring high-quality products at lower prices compared to traditional bakeries [8][12]. - The company leverages its existing customer base and membership system to drive traffic to its new bakery brand, enhancing customer retention and engagement [7][11]. Group 4: Performance and Challenges - Since the launch of the "Red Pomegranate Plan," Haidilao has opened 74 stores across various food categories, generating a total revenue of 4.83 billion yuan, indicating a mix of successes and challenges in brand performance [11][12]. - Despite some brands achieving market recognition, the rapid expansion poses risks of resource dilution and management challenges, particularly as some sub-brands struggle to achieve profitability [14][18]. Group 5: Industry Trends and Future Outlook - The multi-brand strategy is becoming a key approach for leading companies in the restaurant industry to overcome growth challenges, with Haidilao's efforts reflecting broader trends in the sector [16][18]. - The future competition among restaurant giants will focus not only on the number of outlets but also on supply chain resilience, organizational vitality, and strategic consistency [18].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses a recent incident involving a customer at Haidilao who reported an electric shock while dining, leading to ongoing medical treatment and a claim for compensation. The company has responded by emphasizing its commitment to safety and ongoing checks of its equipment, while also indicating that the incident may not be solely their responsibility. Group 1: Incident Response - Haidilao took the incident seriously, arranging for the customer to receive medical attention immediately after the report of the electric shock [1][2] - The restaurant conducted multiple safety checks on the equipment involved, including the use of electrical testing tools, and found no abnormalities [1][2] - A specialized service team has been set up to communicate with the customer, and local authorities have been involved in mediation efforts [1][2] Group 2: Financial Performance - In 2024, Haidilao reported revenue of 42.75 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.70 billion RMB, up 4.7% [5][8] - The company experienced a decline in revenue in the second half of 2024, with a 5.8% year-on-year drop, although net profit increased by 19.3% [8][9] Group 3: Business Strategy - Haidilao is adopting a more cautious approach to expansion, focusing on the quality of new stores rather than the quantity, with plans to open fewer but higher-quality locations [9][10] - The company closed 70 underperforming stores in 2024 while opening 59 new self-operated locations [9] - Haidilao is exploring new brand opportunities through its "Red Pomegranate Plan," which aims to incubate new restaurant concepts [11]

Market Overview - As of March 31, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.46%, the CSI 300 decreased by 0.71%, the STAR 50 dropped by 0.66%, the CSI 1000 declined by 0.66%, the ChiNext Index decreased by 1.15%, and the Hang Seng Index fell by 1.31% [4] - The best-performing sectors on March 31 were telecommunications (+0.58%), home appliances (+0.37%), banking (+0.35%), utilities (+0.15%), while the worst-performing sectors included electric equipment (-1.94%), defense and military (-1.81%), real estate (-1.8%), construction decoration (-1.65%), and media (-1.61%) [4] - The total trading volume for the entire A-share market on March 31 was 12,433 billion, with a net inflow of 2.914 billion HKD from southbound funds [4] Company Analysis: Haidilao (06862) - Haidilao reported a revenue of 42.8 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 4.7 billion, up by 5% year-on-year. The core operating profit reached 6.2 billion, reflecting a 19% year-on-year growth, driven by an increase in table turnover rate [5][6] - The company maintained a dividend payout ratio of approximately 95% for 2024, surpassing the previous year's ratio, marking the highest since its listing. The current annualized dividend yield exceeds 5%, indicating substantial shareholder returns [5] - Haidilao is recognized as the leading brand in China's direct-operated dining sector, with significant growth potential in store openings. The internal management improvements are showing early results, with expectations for table turnover rate, average spending per customer, store openings, and profitability to rise in tandem [5] - Forecasts for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 are 5.2 billion, 5.9 billion, and 6.5 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 11%, 13%, and 10%. The corresponding PE ratios are projected to be 18, 16, and 14 times [5]