此外， 现货铂金 、 现货钯金 纷纷走高，涨超2% 。 | COMEX自银 | 72.810 | 3.13% | | --- | --- | --- | | SI.CMX | | | | 伦敦银现 | 73.434 | 2.59% | | SPTAGUSDOZ.IDC | | | | 现货铂金(美元/盎司) | 2109.20 | 2.39% | | SPTPTUSDOZ.IDC | | | | NYMEX铝 | 1688.50 | 2.25% | | PA NYM | | | | 现货把金(美元/盎司) | 1639.02 | 2.09% | | SPTPDUSDOZ.IDC | | | | 伦敦金现 | 4373.060 | 1.27% | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | COMEX黄金 | 4384.4 | 1.00% | | GC.CMX | | | 国信证券分析认为， 近期白银价格暴涨，远超历史水平，主要原因可能系工业属性弹性凸 显，背后是经济预期的走高，基本面的支撑；国内白银库存处于历史低位，而中国是制造大 国，下游制品的供给也占比很大；12月是白银期货的交割月；叠加近期白银暴涨 ...

黄金风波：M国的金库究竟藏着什么秘密？ 目前，关于黄金的争议正悄然在全球范围内蔓延。许多国家纷纷提出要求，要么检查，要么将存放在M 国的黄金储备运回，但都被美方拒绝了。这究竟是怎么一回事？M国的金库里到底藏着什么不可告人的 秘密呢？ 美联储的黄金堡垒 提到M国的黄金储备，首先要说的是位于纽约曼哈顿下城区的美联储金库。这个地方被称为黄金堡垒， 可并非普通的金库。它位于地下五层，安全性堪称一流。据说，金库的主门重达90吨，厚度达到24英 寸。想象一下，要是把手夹在这门里，恐怕连骨头都保不住吧。 不过，再牢固的金库也阻挡不了各国对自己黄金的担忧。最近，德国和印度相继提出要求，想要检查或 运回存在美联储的黄金。可M国以安全隐患和意图不明为由，拒绝了这些请求。此举引发了轩然大波， 世界各国纷纷关注。 那么，为什么各国对自己黄金储备的去向如此关注呢？这与历史背景密切相关。二战结束后，布雷顿森 林体系建立，美元成为了全球货币。为了方便国际交易，各国纷纷将黄金存放在M国。然而，谁曾想 到，这一存就持续了几十年。 黄金储备大挪移：为何各国如此紧张？ 如今，德国央行提出每年从美联储运回50吨黄金进行检查，而印度也要求运回100吨 ...

行业点评 市场表现截至 2025.12.31 -30.00% -20.00% -10.00% 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00% 70.00% 有色金属指数 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，国新证券整理 国际金价：12 月 30 日伦敦金现跌至 4514 美元/盎司，较 12 月 24 日 历史高点 4526 美元小幅回落，但全年累计涨幅仍达 65%-70%，创 1979 年以来最大年度涨幅。 核心驱动因素分析：多空力量再平衡 短期技术性回调原因： 地缘风险缓和：特朗普与泽连斯基会面引发俄乌停火预期，削弱避险 需求。 市场研究部 2025 年 12 月 31 日 获利了结压力：全年大涨后部分资金选择年末兑现收益，叠加交易所 保证金上调（如 COMEX）引发杠杆多头平仓。 货币政策内部分歧：点阵图显示 2026 年仅降息 1 次（25BP），但市场 押注 2-3 次（50-75BP），政策预期差成波动源头。 白银短期暴跌的牵连：白银工业属性强，但同样是贵金属。近期白银 高波动会传染波动。 部分海外基金再平衡或税收优惠考虑的交易性风险担忧。贵金属暴涨， ...

市场研究部 2025 年 12 月 31 日 贵金属周度观察 周度有色指数表现 上周贵金属板块涨跌幅为 3.8%。有色金属分板块看，上周涨跌幅表现 最好的是锂(中信)11.4%；稀土及磁性材料表现最差3%，黄金3.8%。 贵金属相关指标周度跟踪 贵金属主要是黄金和白银，价格方面：上周 SHFE 黄金区间涨跌幅为 1.5%，SHFE 白银涨跌幅为 13%。 宏观数据方面：美国 11 月 CPI 同比 2.7%，比前值降低，核心 CPI 最 新 9 月为 2.8%环比略高。目前最新美国国债到期收益率(以通胀为标 的)5 年为 1.43%有所降低，美国债期现利差（10y-1y）为 0.67%，边 际提升，经济预期走好；美元指数最新 12 月 30 日为 98.2 持续下降； 美国 11 月 PMI 服务业为 52.6%有所提升，制造业 PMI 为 48.2%有所 下降；美国新增非农就业人数 11月 6.4万人，失业率 4.6%韧性较强； 目前美联储总资产 6.6 万亿美元，其中美国债 4.20 万亿美元。10 月中 国 PMI 为 50.1%，且有所提升，经济预期走好。 贵金属特有比值指标：目前最新 12 月 30 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the "triple whammy" of stock, bond, and currency markets in the U.S. since 2025, driven by rising recession expectations and the spillover effects on global markets through financial, trade, and policy channels [1][2][3] - It highlights the significant differences in resilience among various economies, suggesting that diversified asset allocation and risk hedging are essential strategies for ordinary investors [1][3] Group 1: U.S. Market Movements - On November 13, 2025, the U.S. market experienced a notable "triple whammy" with declines in major indices: Nasdaq down 2.29%, S&P 500 down 1.66%, and Dow Jones down 1.65% [2] - The year 2024 saw increased volatility, with the S&P 500 ending at 5881.63 points, a 0.43% decline for the year, and a significant single-day drop of 2.95% on December 18 [2] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose from 3.95% at the beginning of 2024 to 4.58% by year-end, indicating a substantial increase in market volatility [2] Group 2: Economic Recession Signals - The expectation of an economic recession is supported by multiple data signals, including a potential 2 percentage point reduction in GDP growth due to a 43-day government shutdown [3] - The IMF has revised its fourth-quarter growth forecast for 2024 to below 1.9%, reflecting concerns over private investment and employment [3] - The unemployment rate is projected to rise to 4.4% in 2024, with core PCE inflation expected at 2.6%, indicating a risk of stagflation [3] Group 3: Causes of Market Movements - The "triple whammy" is attributed to a combination of factors: unexpected tightening of Federal Reserve policies, lack of economic data due to the government shutdown, and political instability [4][5] - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance has led to a "data blindness" situation, complicating accurate assessments of inflation and employment [4] - The shutdown is estimated to have caused an economic loss of $1.5 trillion, leading to increased market volatility and uncertainty [5] Group 4: Global Market Transmission - U.S. market movements affect global markets through three main channels: financial, trade, and policy [11] - The tightening of U.S. monetary policy has led to capital outflows from emerging markets, with significant impacts on bond and equity markets [11] - The U.S. recession expectations are likely to reduce global export growth, particularly affecting export-oriented economies [13] Group 5: Impact on Developed Economies - The Eurozone is expected to experience a GDP growth rate of only 1.3% in 2025, significantly lower than the U.S. [15] - The correlation between the DAX index and the S&P 500 is high, indicating that U.S. market adjustments directly impact European stock markets [15] - Japan faces challenges with a depreciating yen and rising import costs, complicating its economic recovery [16] Group 6: Impact on Emerging Markets - Emerging markets are experiencing widespread currency depreciation, with significant declines in currencies like the Brazilian real and Argentine peso [18] - Capital outflows from emerging markets reached $89 billion in 2024, with Asian markets particularly affected [18] - The rising U.S. debt yields are increasing debt servicing costs for emerging markets, leading to heightened default risks [19] Group 7: China's Market Response - China's exports to the U.S. grew by 5.9% in 2024, but future growth is expected to slow due to U.S. recession fears [20] - The Chinese yuan experienced a 2% depreciation against the dollar in 2024, reflecting the impact of U.S. market movements [21] - China is maintaining a proactive monetary policy, with two reserve requirement ratio cuts in 2024 to support economic growth [22]

Group 1 - The article discusses the historical context of gold price surges, highlighting that gold has experienced three significant rallies, with the first two resulting in substantial losses for investors due to high-level entrapment [1][3] - The first major surge occurred from 1978 to 1980, where gold prices increased from $244 to $850, marking a 248% rise amid geopolitical tensions and domestic economic issues in the U.S. [3] - The second surge took place from 2008 to 2011, with gold rising from approximately $700 to $1905, a 171% increase, driven by the global financial crisis and the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing policies [3] Group 2 - Recent warnings from financial institutions indicate that nearly half of U.S. states are facing economic recession, with Moody's reporting that over 22 states are in economic contraction [6] - The economic downturn is exacerbated in Washington D.C. due to significant federal layoffs and budget cuts, with the recession spreading across the entire U.S. [6] - The ongoing global geopolitical instability and the trend of de-dollarization have led to increased demand for gold, as countries seek to build independent banking systems and accumulate gold reserves [6] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that gold has entered a new phase of significant price increases even before the U.S. economy officially enters a recession, with expectations of gold prices potentially exceeding $4500 in the next three months [7]

Core Viewpoint - The gold and silver markets have reached historical highs driven by risk aversion, with London gold rising from a low of $3947 to a peak of $4179, marking a cumulative increase of approximately 5.8% [1] - London silver has also shown strength, surpassing its previous historical high of $49.79, driven by a crisis of confidence in the US dollar due to aggressive policies from the Trump administration [3] Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - London gold has experienced a significant price increase, with expectations of breaking the $4200 mark [1] - The upward trend in gold prices is attributed to a loss of confidence in the US dollar, exacerbated by high tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which have negatively impacted global economic potential [3] Group 2: Silver Market Analysis - London silver has consistently closed higher from October 8 to 13, reaching a peak of $53.48, thus achieving a new historical high alongside gold [3] - The current performance of silver indicates a strong market sentiment, reflecting a broader trend of investors seeking safe-haven assets amid economic uncertainty [3] Group 3: US Dollar and Economic Indicators - The US dollar index is currently at 99.36, showing signs of recovery after a decline earlier in the year, but the overall economic outlook remains challenging due to poor non-farm employment data [5] - The Federal Reserve's decision to restart interest rate cuts, with a 25 basis point reduction in September, is a response to a weak labor market, while inflation remains high, creating a complex economic environment [5] Group 4: Technical Analysis - London gold is in a strong upward trend, with the 10-day moving average serving as a key indicator of market strength; a drop below this average could signal a potential correction [7] - Given the significant prior gains, there is a possibility of profit-taking, which may lead to a deeper market correction [7]

Core Insights - Central banks around the world have shown a lack of trust in the US dollar by increasing their gold reserves while reducing their holdings of US Treasury bonds [1] - The article raises questions about the attitude of central banks towards the Chinese yuan and whether the internationalization of the yuan has progressed amid the dollar's declining trust [1] Summary by Categories - **Central Bank Actions** - Central banks are continuously increasing their gold holdings [1] - There is a notable reduction in the holdings of US Treasury bonds by these banks [1] - **Chinese Yuan Internationalization** - The article suggests that the internationalization of the yuan may have advanced, especially in the context of the dollar losing credibility [1] - A specific news item from September is mentioned as potentially revealing insights into the yuan's status [1]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) continues to increase its gold reserves despite high international gold prices, indicating a strategic long-term approach rather than short-term speculation [1][12] - As of September 2025, China's gold reserves reached 74.06 million ounces, marking the 11th consecutive month of accumulation, although the latest increase was modest at 40,000 ounces [3][12] - China's gold reserves account for only 7.7% of its official international reserve assets, significantly lower than the global average of around 15% and much less than countries like Germany and France, which exceed 70% [3][12] Strategic Rationale - The primary motivation for increasing gold reserves is to diversify the foreign exchange reserve portfolio, as gold has a low correlation with major currencies like the US dollar and euro, providing a hedge against currency fluctuations [5][12] - The current geopolitical climate, characterized by uncertainties such as trade tensions and rising national debt, has led to decreased trust in the US dollar, prompting central banks globally to increase their gold holdings [5][7] - Gold is viewed as a universally accepted "last means of payment," making it a critical asset for national financial security, especially in extreme situations [7][12] Global Context - In Q2 2025, global central banks collectively increased their gold reserves by 166 tons, with notable purchases from Poland, Turkey, and Qatar, reflecting a broader trend of central banks seeking to bolster their gold holdings [7][12] - The PBOC's actions signal a commitment to supporting the internationalization of the renminbi, as gold backing enhances the currency's credibility [7][9] - The shift in global reserve dynamics is evident, with the US dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves declining to historical lows, while gold and other assets are expected to gain prominence [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has reached a historical high of $3,550, driven by multiple factors including a crisis of confidence in the US dollar, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks [1][5][9]. Group 1: Factors Driving Gold Prices - The first major factor is the crisis of confidence in the US dollar, with the debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 124% and expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, leading to a decline in real yields on 10-year US Treasury bonds from 1.8% to below 1.2% [5][11]. - The second factor is the surge in central bank gold purchases, with global central banks net buying 256 tons of gold in the first four months of the year, including a continuous increase in China's gold reserves [7][9]. - The third factor is the geopolitical risk premium, with ongoing conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war and tensions in the Middle East pushing investors towards gold as a safe haven [9][14]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Predictions - The investment community is observing whether the three driving forces behind gold's price surge can continue, particularly in light of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and other central banks, which could enhance liquidity and support gold prices [11][18]. - Geopolitical uncertainties remain a significant catalyst for gold prices, with predictions indicating a possible 10% increase if conflicts escalate, while a return to peace could lead to a price correction of 12% to 17% [14][16]. - Supply and demand dynamics are also crucial, with stable gold production but fluctuating demand; jewelry consumption has decreased by 26.68% due to high prices, while investment demand is rising [16][18].