Core Viewpoint - The strong performance of the Australian and New Zealand dollars is attributed to a global asset reallocation triggered by Trump's criticism of the Federal Reserve, leading to a significant withdrawal of funds from dollar assets [1][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Trump's ultimatum to the Federal Reserve, threatening to fire Chairman Powell if interest rates are not cut, has raised doubts about the Fed's independence [4]. - The US dollar index has fallen to a three-year low, and the yield curve for US Treasury bonds has steepened [4]. - Hedge funds have begun to sell off dollar assets following the White House's acknowledgment of the option to dismiss the Fed chairman [4]. Group 2: Currency Performance - The Australian dollar reached a high of 0.6438 against the US dollar, breaking through a key resistance level of 0.6409, while the New Zealand dollar rose to 0.6028, marking its highest point since November 7 of the previous year [5]. - Analysts suggest that if the Australian dollar stabilizes above the 200-day moving average of 0.6474, it could confirm a V-shaped reversal pattern, targeting the 0.68 - 0.69 range [5]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Expectations - The market anticipates a 100% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia in May, with a 20% chance of a 50 basis point cut, projecting a total reduction of 125 basis points for the year [5]. - For the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, there is a 100% probability of a 25 basis point cut to 3.25% in May, with expectations of a year-end rate of 2.75% [6]. Group 4: Economic Outlook - The Australian dollar to New Zealand dollar exchange rate touched a low of 1.0672, reflecting a relatively pessimistic outlook on the Australian economy [6]. - The ongoing conflict between the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve is prompting a global reassessment of asset allocations, potentially benefiting Australian and New Zealand currencies amid a crisis of confidence in the US dollar [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current market has witnessed significant selling of US Treasuries, mainly by global central banks and hedge funds. China and Japan have been reducing their US Treasury holdings, while the UK has been increasing its holdings. The short - term sharp decline in US Treasuries is mainly due to the liquidation and selling by basis - trading related institutions. Hedge fund liquidation can trigger a spiral decline. [3][7] - In 2025, the US has a large debt repayment pressure in the second quarter. The total unpaid debt in 2025 has increased by 4.68% ($1.61 trillion) compared to 2024, with about $6 trillion of debt maturing from April to June, increasing debt risks. [4][21] - In the short term, US Treasury yields may remain high, and liquidity risks need to be vigilant. In the long term, as the impact of tariffs on the economy becomes more apparent, the US economy faces a risk of recession, and with the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, US Treasuries are expected to strengthen. The 10Y US Treasury yield is expected to fluctuate between 4% - 5% in the short term and may decline to below 4% in the long term. [4][31] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Recent Sellers of US Treasuries - In the past week (April 4 - 11), US Treasuries fell significantly, and yields climbed. The 10Y US Treasury yield rose by a maximum of 47bp to 4.48% within the week, while the 2Y/1Y yields rose by a maximum of 28/18bp. [8] - Among the major US Treasury - holding countries, China and Japan have been reducing their holdings since 2018 and 2021 respectively. In 2024, China and Japan reduced their holdings by $572.9 billion and $554.4 billion respectively. The UK has been increasing its holdings since 2016 and is about to overtake China as the second - largest holder. In 2024, the UK increased its holdings by $342.0 billion. Some financial institutions, such as Japan's Norinchukin Financial Group, sold US Treasuries due to liquidity problems. [9] - The short - term sharp decline in US Treasuries is mainly due to the liquidation and selling by basis - trading related institutions. Hedge funds hold US Treasury spot in basis trading. When US Treasury yields rise sharply in the short term, losses in spot positions can trigger margin calls, leading to further selling of US Treasuries and a spiral decline. [3][14] 3.2 Another Risk Point of US Treasuries - In 2025, the total unpaid debt in the US has increased by 4.68% ($1.61 trillion) compared to 2024. As of April 3, 2025, the total national debt was $36.22 trillion, with about $6 trillion maturing from April to June. The average interest rate on US debt has risen significantly since 2021, increasing the proportion of debt - repayment expenditures. [4][21] - The US Treasury term structure is mainly mid - term notes (2 - 10 years). As of March 2025, mid - term notes accounted for 51.22% ($14.81 trillion) of the total outstanding public debt. [27] 3.3 US Treasury Outlook - In the short term, US Treasury yields may remain high because US hedge funds hold a large number of long positions in basis trading, and there is a negative feedback mechanism between basis trading and rising US Treasury yields. Short - term liquidity risks need to be vigilant, as high yields for a long time may lead to extreme situations such as an increase in loan default rates, a collapse of the high - yield bond market, and a crisis among small and medium - sized banks. [4][31] - In the long term, as the impact of tariffs on the economy becomes more obvious, global economic activities and trade slow down, and the US economy faces a risk of recession. Coupled with the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, US Treasuries are expected to strengthen. The 10Y US Treasury yield is expected to fluctuate between 4% - 5% in the short term and may decline to below 4% in the long term. [4][31]

北京时间，周四晚间，美股三大指数集体低开，截至发稿，道指跌2.1%，纳指跌2.93%，标普500指数跌2.55%。 "冷静点！一切都会好起来的，" 美东时间周三上午，就在美股开盘几分钟后，特朗普在其自创的社媒平台Truth Social上发帖称。"美国将比以往任何时候 都更强大、更强大！" 他随后补充道："现在是买入的好时机！！！DJT。" 特朗普在社交媒体上发帖称，将对一些国家暂停实施其新关税，在90天内"对等关税"降至10%，立即生效。随后，美股大幅拉升，道指、纳指、标普500指 数分别收涨7.87%、12.16%、9.52%。 在此之后，一众高官开始为特朗普唱起了赞歌。 对此，特朗普的贸易和制造业高级顾问彼得·纳瓦罗发文表示这是贸易谈判史上最伟大的日子，美国历史上的最大股市涨幅，相信特朗普。 美国商务部长卢特尼克则发文表示，特朗普签署了其任期内最不可思议的文件，世界已经准备好与特朗普合作解决全球贸易问题。 不过，从数据来看，目前美股似乎还没有到开香槟的时刻。虽然美股经历了大反弹，但美股科技板块距离4月2日的市值水平仍差约1.9万亿美元。 值得一提的是，特朗普如同儿戏般的关税政策也迎来专家的嘲讽。《纽约时 ...