Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for President Trump to dismiss current Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and the implications this could have on the independence of the Federal Reserve and its monetary policy direction [3][4][8]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Leadership and Independence - Trump has expressed ongoing interest in potentially firing Powell, citing "serious incompetence" related to a Federal Reserve overhaul, and has indicated he has a preferred successor in mind, to be announced in January [4][5]. - The current market has not reacted strongly to threats against the Federal Reserve's independence, but investors are preparing for a more divided and potentially weaker Federal Reserve under new leadership [8][9]. - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is composed of 12 members, and Trump currently has appointed three members, with potential opportunities to influence more appointments in the future [9][10]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Implications - Concerns have been raised among bond investors regarding the potential nomination of Kevin Hassett as the next Fed Chair, fearing it could lead to aggressive rate cuts that might destabilize the market and increase inflation risks [5][10]. - The article notes that the sensitivity of central banks to economic shocks has increased, potentially leading to conflicts between monetary and fiscal policies, which could further complicate the economic landscape [6][11]. - Despite political pressures, some investors anticipate that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates again early next year, which could support stock market performance [11].

美国总统特朗普当地时间29日再次表示，还是有可能解雇现任美联储主席鲍威尔，并重申已有下一任美联储主席 人选，将在1月某个时候宣布。 当前，市场并未对美联储独立性受威胁进行交易，但投资者确实预计，美联储将迎来内部分歧更加显著、主席更 加弱势以及更容易发生激进变革的时期。 宏利投资管理（Manulife Investment Management）的美国利率交易主管洛里齐奥（Michael Lorizio）称："如果新 任美联储主席在沟通方式上深思熟虑，不仅有助于他们将共识引向其观点，而且还能创造稳定，避免做出任何可 能损害美联储对经济的影响力的举动。" 仍威胁解雇鲍威尔 特朗普29日表示，他仍然在考虑就鲍威尔在美联储一项翻修工程中的"严重无能"，对后者提起诉讼。特朗普称， 鲍威尔"应该立即辞职"，并且"我很想解雇他"。今年7月，鲍威尔险些被特朗普罢免，但美国市场立即作出负面反 应，市场人士抨击这可能威胁美联储的独立性，从而扰乱市场。这番警告令特朗普态度转变。但此次，特朗普表 示，"也许我仍然可能会（这么做）。" 鲍威尔的任期将于2026年5月结束，但他在美联储理事会的任期需要到2028年才正式到期。鲍威尔尚未就 ...

最近几周，短期和长期美债收益率利差已经扩大，这表明投资者对美联储的独立性越来越担心。 美国总统特朗普当地时间29日再次表示，还是有可能解雇现任美联储主席鲍威尔，并重申已有下一任美联储主席 人选，将在1月某个时候宣布。 当前，市场并未对美联储独立性受威胁进行交易，但投资者确实预计，美联储将迎来内部分歧更加显著、主席更 加弱势以及更容易发生激进变革的时期。 宏利投资管理（Manulife Investment Management）的美国利率交易主管洛里齐奥（Michael Lorizio）称："如果新 任美联储主席在沟通方式上深思熟虑，不仅有助于他们将共识引向其观点，而且还能创造稳定，避免做出任何可 能损害美联储对经济的影响力的举动。" 仍威胁解雇鲍威尔 特朗普29日表示，他仍然在考虑就鲍威尔在美联储一项翻修工程中的"严重无能"，对后者提起诉讼。特朗普称， 鲍威尔"应该立即辞职"，并且"我很想解雇他"。今年7月，鲍威尔险些被特朗普罢免，但美国市场立即作出负面反 应，市场人士抨击这可能威胁美联储的独立性，从而扰乱市场。这番警告令特朗普态度转变。但此次，特朗普表 示，"也许我仍然可能会（这么做）。" 鲍威尔的任期将 ...

中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，2025年12月30日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为：1美 元对人民币7.0348元，1欧元对人民币8.2681元，100日元对人民币4.4969元，1港元对人民币0.90447元， 1英镑对人民币9.4836元，1澳大利亚元对人民币4.6986元，1新西兰元对人民币4.0741元，1新加坡元对 人民币5.4630元，1瑞士法郎对人民币8.8995元，1加拿大元对人民币5.1284元，人民币1元对1.1393澳门 元，人民币1元对0.57745马来西亚林吉特，人民币1元对11.1719俄罗斯卢布，人民币1元对2.3755南非兰 特，人民币1元对204.52韩元，人民币1元对0.52322阿联酋迪拉姆，人民币1元对0.53419沙特里亚尔，人 民币1元对46.7392匈牙利福林，人民币1元对0.51131波兰兹罗提，人民币1元对0.9035丹麦克朗，人民币 1元对1.3075瑞典克朗，人民币1元对1.4304挪威克朗，人民币1元对6.11529土耳其里拉，人民币1元对 2.5588墨西哥比索，人民币1元对4.5050泰铢。 (责任编辑：马欣) 中国经济网北京12月30日讯 ...

在假期交易清淡、缺乏新催化剂的背景下，美元对一篮子货币汇率持稳。本周经济日程表事件稀少，多 地市场因新年休市。随着月末和年末临近，美元仓位可能出现调整。美元指数持平于98.025点。伦交所 数据显示，年内迄今该指数已下跌近10%，特朗普政府的贸易政策与美联储降息周期共同导致美元走 弱。 责任编辑：王许宁 在假期交易清淡、缺乏新催化剂的背景下，美元对一篮子货币汇率持稳。本周经济日程表事件稀少，多 地市场因新年休市。随着月末和年末临近，美元仓位可能出现调整。美元指数持平于98.025点。伦交所 数据显示，年内迄今该指数已下跌近10%，特朗普政府的贸易政策与美联储降息周期共同导致美元走 弱。 责任编辑：王许宁 ...

(责任编辑：关婧) 中国经济网北京12月29日讯 来自中国外汇交易中心的数据显示，今日人民币对美元汇率中间价报 7.0331，较前一交易日调升27个基点。 中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，2025年12月29日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为： 1美元对人民币7.0331元，1欧元对人民币8.2630元，100日元对人民币4.4833元，1港元对人民币0.90494 元，1英镑对人民币9.4661元，1澳大利亚元对人民币4.7061元，1新西兰元对人民币4.0819元，1新加坡 元对人民币5.4633元，1瑞士法郎对人民币8.8904元，1加拿大元对人民币5.1305元，人民币1元对1.1387 澳门元，人民币1元对0.57609马来西亚林吉特，人民币1元对11.0260俄罗斯卢布，人民币1元对2.3747南 非兰特，人民币1元对205.28韩元，人民币1元对0.52388阿联酋迪拉姆，人民币1元对0.53490沙特里亚 尔，人民币1元对46.8764匈牙利福林，人民币1元对0.51013波兰兹罗提，人民币1元对0.9045丹麦克朗， 人民币1元对1.3055瑞典克朗，人民币1元对1.4272挪威克朗， ...

三、下一次调价展望与影响因素 油价又降了！12月92号汽油跌至6.7元/升，山东6元多，加满一箱省35元，新年首调周期国际油价回升，3天预估涨近100元/吨，WTI原油58美元。全年25次 调整"12跌7涨"，年末三连降后，1月6日或变脸，车主叹：刚省的钱，怕是要"飞"了。 一、年末调价概况与当前油价 本周一晚间进行了2025年最后一次成品油调价，整体呈现小幅下行，此次调整后，95号汽油多数地区降至约7.18元/升，92号普遍低于6.70元/升，0号柴油接 近6.38元/升。 调价结果已在各地加油站和官方价目表中更新，便于车主参考，新一轮计价周期已开启，短期内油价有可能重新走高，消费者不宜过分乐观。 二、短期国际走势对国内的传导 本轮国内价格实现回落，国际原油价格在随后的统计期内持续上扬，导致国内口径下出现连续上涨的信号。 按照现行的调价规则，近期国际油价变化已将调价弹性推高至约95元/吨，换算到零售端相当于每升涨幅约0.07—0.09元，即便个别时点如WTI和布伦特出现 微跌，整体三日上行的态势使得下一次国内调整偏向上行。 新一轮窗口位于2026年1月6日24时，目前仅计入了部分工作日的数据，若未来几日国际 ...

中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，2025年12月19日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为： 1美元对人民币7.0550元，1欧元对人民币8.2616元，100日元对人民币4.5274元，1港元对人民币0.90675 元，1英镑对人民币9.4267元，1澳大利亚元对人民币4.6578元，1新西兰元对人民币4.0655元，1新加坡 元对人民币5.4639元，1瑞士法郎对人民币8.8700元，1加拿大元对人民币5.1131元，人民币1元对1.1365 澳门元，人民币1元对0.57946马来西亚林吉特，人民币1元对11.3508俄罗斯卢布，人民币1元对2.3739南 非兰特，人民币1元对209.46韩元，人民币1元对0.52147阿联酋迪拉姆，人民币1元对0.53250沙特里亚 尔，人民币1元对46.9184匈牙利福林，人民币1元对0.50874波兰兹罗提，人民币1元对0.9047丹麦克朗， 人民币1元对1.3174瑞典克朗，人民币1元对1.4419挪威克朗，人民币1元对6.07374土耳其里拉，人民币1 元对2.5529墨西哥比索，人民币1元对4.4624泰铢。 (责任编辑：华青剑) 中国经济网北京12月19日 ...

Core Viewpoint - The focus of policies is expected to shift from external trade competition to domestic economic development in 2026, which could positively impact the stock market if economic performance is stable [4][8][9]. Policy Shift - The upcoming year is the first year of the five-year plan, indicating a high probability of significant policy announcements and support for economic growth [8]. - Monetary policy is expected to remain moderately loose, with increased fiscal efforts to support domestic economic construction [8]. AI Market Analysis - Current valuations in the U.S. AI market are at historical highs, but conditions for a bubble burst, such as weakened liquidity and high leverage, have not yet been observed, making it premature to discuss a bubble collapse [10][12]. - Despite high valuations, major tech companies continue to show strong cash flow and growth rates, indicating that while a bubble exists, its timing for a potential burst is uncertain [11][12]. Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to allocate 50% of their portfolio to non-U.S. markets due to the peak performance of U.S. stocks and anticipated depreciation of the U.S. dollar [13][15]. - The upcoming change in the U.S. Federal Reserve leadership may lead to more accommodative monetary policies, increasing pressure on the dollar's value [15]. Currency Outlook - The Chinese yuan is considered severely undervalued, with recent strengthening indicating the beginning of an appreciation trend, potentially reaching 7.05 against the dollar [16][17]. - The actual exchange rate of the yuan has depreciated by over 25% in recent years, despite strong export performance, suggesting significant room for appreciation [17]. AI Sector Investment - Continued investment in leading Chinese AI companies is recommended, as the technological gap between China and the U.S. is narrowing [18][19]. - The trend of large tech companies transitioning to AI-focused operations is expected to become more pronounced [19]. Commodity Market Outlook - The demand for commodities is anticipated to remain strong due to the resource needs driven by AI development and the economic cycle entering its mid-to-late phase [21][23]. - The performance of precious metals and industrial metals is expected to continue to strengthen, supported by the capital-intensive nature of AI technologies [22][23].

Core Insights - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release non-farm employment data for October and November, with the report expected to influence interest rate trends and potentially cause fluctuations in the dollar exchange rate [1] - The report will include data from two months, with October's figures primarily based on business surveys, and November's expected to show an increase of approximately 40,000 jobs [1] - The unemployment rate is anticipated to remain steady at 4.4%, with a slight increase to 4.5% expected for November [2] Employment Data Expectations - Analysts predict a rebound in employment numbers for November, while October's data may show a decline, particularly influenced by government sector employment [2] - Average hourly earnings are expected to increase by 0.3% month-over-month in November, following a year-over-year increase of 3.8% in September [2] Market Reactions - Recent economic indicators show an increase in initial jobless claims and limited improvement in the services sector, with unexpected declines in private sector employment [2] - The upcoming non-farm data is crucial for market expectations regarding future interest rate adjustments, with potential implications for the dollar's strength against the euro [2][4] Technical Analysis - The euro to dollar exchange rate is currently consolidating near recent highs, with technical indicators suggesting potential upward movement [5] - If the exchange rate continues to rise, it may test levels of 1.1800 and 1.1850, with further resistance around 1.1919 [5] - In case of a pullback, initial support may be found around 1.1644, with further attention on the 1.1610 area [5]