Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The market sentiment changes rapidly. Near the Spring Festival, funds have a need for risk aversion. This week, there was a slight inventory reduction at the Jiangsu port for pure benzene, and the demand side showed a stable performance. The export of downstream styrene was good, and the inventory of Shandong refineries was at a low level, while the downstream inventory was at a medium level. Pure benzene was in a high - level wide - range shock, and the reference range for the 03 contract was 6060 - 6350 yuan/ton. The recommended trading strategy was to wait and see [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Market Review - On Thursday night, the price of the BZ2603 main - contract futures fell by 47 yuan to 6135 yuan/ton. The spot price in the mainstream area of East China was 6150 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 30 yuan), and the spot price in Shandong was 6165 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 13 yuan). In terms of positions, the long positions decreased by 1608 lots to 20,600 lots, and the short positions decreased by 1717 lots to 21,800 lots [2] 2. Important Information - **Supply**: In January, the domestic pure benzene production was 1.915 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.8%. In December, the pure benzene import volume was 537,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.8% [2] - **Inventory**: As of February 2, 2026, the total commercial inventory of the pure benzene port samples in Jiangsu was 296,000 tons, a decrease of 9,000 tons compared with the previous inventory of 305,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.95%; compared with the inventory of 155,000 tons in the same period last year, the inventory increased by 141,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 90.97%. From January 26 to February 1, the incomplete statistics showed that the arrival volume was 0 tons and the pick - up volume was about 9,000 tons. During the period, among the statistical storage areas, 3 storage areas decreased and 4 remained stable [2] - **Demand**: The styrene operating rate was 69.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.35%; the phenol operating rate was 88%, unchanged from the previous month; the caprolactam operating rate was 73.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.5%; the aniline operating rate was 88.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.9%; the adipic acid operating rate was 68.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6%. The statistical price of pure benzene in Shandong yesterday was around 2100, with the low end at 6150 and the high end at 6180 [2] - **International Oil Price**: The US and Iran officially confirmed that they would hold talks, the market's concern about geopolitical risks eased, and the US dollar exchange rate strengthened, leading to a decline in international oil prices. The NYMEX crude oil futures 03 contract fell 1.85 dollars/barrel to 63.29 dollars/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of 2.84%; the ICE Brent crude oil futures 04 contract fell 1.91 dollars/barrel to 67.55 dollars/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of 2.75%. The China INE crude oil futures 2604 contract rose 5.2 to 467.4 yuan/barrel, and fell 3.5 to 463.9 yuan/barrel at night [2] 3. Market Logic - The market sentiment changes rapidly. Near the Spring Festival, funds have a need for risk aversion. This week, there was a slight inventory reduction at the Jiangsu port for pure benzene, and the demand side showed a stable performance. The export of downstream styrene was good, and the inventory of Shandong refineries was at a low level, while the downstream inventory was at a medium level. Pure benzene was in a high - level wide - range shock, and the reference range for the 03 contract was 6060 - 6350 yuan/ton [2] 4. Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy was to wait and see [2]

Group 1 - The global economy is transitioning from "high volatility" to "new equilibrium," facing new uncertainties and challenges while instability and imbalance are somewhat reduced [2][4] - In 2026, a series of positive factors are expected to drive global economic recovery, including expansionary fiscal policies, loose monetary policies, and an AI investment boom [4][5] - Global GDP growth is projected to be between 2.9% and 3.1% in 2026, slightly lower than in 2025, with developed economies growing below 2% and emerging markets, especially in Asia, continuing to be the main growth drivers [5] Group 2 - The global trade environment shows signs of partial recovery, with the U.S. likely to pragmatically adjust aggressive trade protection measures and deepen multilateral cooperation [8][9] - However, new protectionist forces may emerge, particularly in developed economies like Europe, which may impose "rules-based" barriers to trade [9] Group 3 - Inflation pressures remain in developed economies, with service prices showing stickiness and tariff impacts having delayed effects [13][10] - Global inflation is expected to decrease from 4.2% in 2025 to between 3.2% and 3.6% in 2026, with most developed economies approaching a 2% target [11] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut uncertainty is increasing, with potential further cuts in 2026 depending on economic conditions and inflation expectations [14][15] - The political landscape and economic data may influence the Fed's decisions on interest rates, with pressures from the Trump administration complicating the situation [15] Group 5 - Many countries are expected to increase fiscal policy efforts in 2026 to counter economic downturn risks, with significant public investment planned in various sectors [17][18] - However, some countries face constraints on fiscal expansion due to high debt levels and external pressures [18] Group 6 - U.S.-China economic relations may experience a phase of easing, with the U.S. adjusting its stance towards China and seeking selective cooperation in non-sensitive areas [21][22] - This shift is driven by economic interdependence and political considerations ahead of the 2026 midterm elections [22] Group 7 - Countries are increasingly prioritizing supply chain "self-sufficiency" due to geopolitical risks and technological competition, leading to a restructuring of supply chains in strategic sectors [24][25] Group 8 - Global stock markets are expected to experience cautious optimism, with potential for upward movement driven by interest rate cuts and AI investments, but structural differentiation may increase [26][27] - Emerging markets are likely to attract more investment due to favorable conditions, while U.S. markets may face volatility and risks associated with high valuations [28] Group 9 - The U.S. dollar is anticipated to remain weak, influenced by lower interest rates and various economic factors, with fluctuations expected within a range [29][30] Group 10 - Gold prices are projected to remain strong amid geopolitical risks and a weakening dollar, although there may be short-term corrections due to various market factors [33][34]

Core Viewpoint - The central point of the news is the depreciation of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar, with the exchange rate reported at 6.9570 yuan per dollar, a decrease of 37 basis points from the previous trading day [1]. Exchange Rate Summary - The People's Bank of China announced the mid-point exchange rates for various currencies, with 1 US dollar equating to 6.9570 yuan, 1 euro to 8.2036 yuan, and 100 Japanese yen to 4.4328 yuan [2]. - Additional exchange rates include: - 1 Hong Kong dollar to 0.89062 yuan - 1 British pound to 9.4843 yuan - 1 Australian dollar to 4.8637 yuan - 1 New Zealand dollar to 4.1714 yuan - 1 Singapore dollar to 5.4621 yuan - 1 Swiss franc to 8.9439 yuan - 1 Canadian dollar to 5.0851 yuan - 1 Malaysian ringgit to 0.56576 yuan - 1 Russian ruble to 11.0198 yuan - 1 South African rand to 2.3128 yuan - 1 South Korean won to 210.26 yuan - 1 UAE dirham to 0.52844 yuan - 1 Saudi riyal to 0.53957 yuan - 1 Hungarian forint to 46.2608 yuan - 1 Polish zloty to 0.51403 yuan - 1 Danish krone to 0.9103 yuan - 1 Swedish krona to 1.2932 yuan - 1 Norwegian krone to 1.3912 yuan - 1 Turkish lira to 6.26195 yuan - 1 Mexican peso to 2.4918 yuan - 1 Thai baht to 4.5629 yuan [2].

Core Viewpoint - A sudden announcement from Washington regarding Kevin Walsh's nomination as Federal Reserve Chair led to a significant drop in gold and silver prices, erasing billions in market value and catching investors off guard [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Gold and silver prices had been on an upward trend for months, but the announcement caused gold to experience its worst sell-off since 2013 and silver its largest single-day drop since 1980 [2]. - The volatility in the market has raised concerns about future fluctuations, as investors are closely monitoring policy signals from Washington and potential changes from the Federal Reserve [2]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Walsh is viewed as a proponent of free markets and inflation hawkishness, differing from the current Federal Reserve leadership, which has focused on maintaining low borrowing costs [1]. - His past record suggests a more stringent approach to inflation and monetary policy, potentially requiring tighter monetary policy measures, including interest rate hikes, which could strengthen the dollar and reduce the appeal of gold and silver as safe-haven assets [1]. Group 3: Long-term Demand - Despite the recent volatility, ongoing purchases by foreign central banks, including China, continue to support long-term demand for gold, as geopolitical tensions drive efforts to diversify foreign exchange reserves and reduce reliance on the dollar [3].

Group 1 - The USD/CAD exchange rate continues to rise, trading around 1.3660, supported by a combination of factors including a decline in oil prices and a stronger USD [2] - The Canadian dollar's performance is closely linked to oil prices, as Canada is the largest oil exporter to the US, making its economy and currency sensitive to fluctuations in oil prices [2] - Recent declines in West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices, which have fallen over 5% in the last four trading days to around $62.00 per barrel, have weakened the support for the Canadian dollar, facilitating the rise of the USD/CAD exchange rate [2] Group 2 - Uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's policy outlook and recent statements have bolstered the USD, with the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair raising expectations for a potential shift towards a more cautious monetary policy [3] - Fed officials have indicated a preference for maintaining current interest rates, with St. Louis Fed President Alberto M. stating that the 3.50%-3.75% policy rate range is neutral, balancing economic growth and inflation pressures [3] - Progress in US fiscal policy, including an agreement in the Senate on government funding, has alleviated risks of a government shutdown, improving market sentiment and further supporting the USD [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent significant decline in gold prices, with London spot gold dropping over $1000 per ounce from its January 29 high, indicates a period of high volatility, and experts suggest that investors should refrain from bottom-fishing until market fluctuations stabilize [1][4][5]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Analysts believe that gold will experience substantial short-term fluctuations, and it is advisable for investors to wait for reduced volatility before considering investments in gold ETFs, which are viewed as more stable compared to gold mining stocks [1][4][5]. - The important support level for gold prices is estimated to be between $4300 and $4500 per ounce, and the fundamental factors supporting gold prices, such as a weak dollar and declining trust in U.S. Treasury and dollar assets, remain intact [5][6]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy should focus on gold ETFs as a more reliable option compared to gold mining stocks, especially in the current environment of extreme volatility where gold is exhibiting characteristics of a risk asset [3][7]. - The upcoming appointment of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chairman may lead to shifts in monetary policy that could impact gold pricing and long-term asset allocation strategies [3][7]. Group 3: Price Predictions - Short-term predictions suggest that gold prices may fluctuate around a central point of $5000 per ounce, with potential movements within a $1000 range, driven primarily by ongoing demand for safe-haven assets [6].

(责任编辑：马欣) 中国经济网北京2月2日讯 来自中国外汇交易中心的数据显示，今日人民币对美元汇率中间价报6.9695， 较前一交易日下调17个基点。 中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，2026年2月2日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为：1美元 对人民币6.9695元，1欧元对人民币8.2651元，100日元对人民币4.4926元，1港元对人民币0.89249元，1 英镑对人民币9.5385元，1澳大利亚元对人民币4.8430元，1新西兰元对人民币4.1916元，1新加坡元对人 民币5.4759元，1瑞士法郎对人民币9.0099元，1加拿大元对人民币5.1098元，人民币1元对1.1546澳门 元，人民币1元对0.56557马来西亚林吉特，人民币1元对10.9237俄罗斯卢布，人民币1元对2.3227南非兰 特，人民币1元对208.04韩元，人民币1元对0.52681阿联酋迪拉姆，人民币1元对0.53803沙特里亚尔，人 民币1元对46.0801匈牙利福林，人民币1元对0.50968波兰兹罗提，人民币1元对0.9035丹麦克朗，人民币 1元对1.2784瑞典克朗，人民币1元对1.3836挪威克朗，人民币1 ...

因有报道称特朗普政府拟提名凯文・沃什出任美联储主席，推动美元汇率走高，黄金与白银在周五遭遇 重挫，此前一路刷新纪录的涨势就此降温。 白银价格暴跌超 16%，至每盎司 96 美元附近；黄金价格大跌超 7%，跌破 5000 美元关口，贵金属市场 的剧烈震荡进一步加剧，此番波动终结了此前持续走高、令技术指标超买的创纪录涨势。美元指数一度 上涨 0.5%，推高了多数买家购入贵金属的成本，白银与铂金价格均暴跌超 10%。 特朗普政府对全球秩序的颠覆之举，是此番贵金属价格大涨的主要推手，其中包括扣押委内瑞拉国家元 首，以及威胁吞并格陵兰、对盟友加征关祱等一系列行动。近期，特朗普还多次警示或对伊朗发动军事 打击，并表示将对所有向古巴供应石油的国家征收关祱。 与此同时，特朗普与参议院民主党人达成临时协议，美国政府再度避免了停摆危机。目前白宫正继续与 民主党磋商，试图为引发全国哗然的移民突击检查制定新的限制措施。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：郭明煜 因有报道称特朗普政府拟提名凯文・沃什出任美联储主席，推动美元汇率走高，黄金与白银在周五遭遇 重挫，此前一路刷新纪录的涨势就此降温。 白银价格暴跌超 16%，至 ...

中辉有色观点 | | | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 美国政府关门风险陡增、联储主席候选人未知，伊朗局势紧张，欧美地缘问题反复， | | | 长线持有 | 多基金撤离美元资产，流动性风险偏好尚可。中长期地缘秩序重塑，不确定性持续 | | ★★ | | 存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | | | 白银短期波动率较大，分析来看白银自身逻辑让位于黄金带来的避险属性，全年来 | | 白银 | 长期持有 | 看交割交易等持续，注意节奏控制。长期降息、供需缺口连续 5 年，全球大财政均 | | ★★ | | 对白银长期有利，长期滚动做多逻辑不变。 | | | | 美联储如期不降息，黄金创新高带动有色飘红。铜矿供应紧张，海外冶炼厂长协谈 | | 铜 | 长线持有 | 判承压，强预期和弱现实博弈激烈，铜高位区间盘整，建议铜多单移动止盈落袋， | | ★ | | 中长期对铜依旧看好。 | | | | 锌锭淡季去库超预期，投机热钱涌入，短期锌震荡偏强，建议前期多单持有，逐渐 | | 锌 | 反弹 | 逢高止盈。企业卖出套保积极布局，锁定库存 ...

上海期货交易所指定交割仓库期货1月28日仓单日报显示，白银期货总计508368千克，今日仓单较上一 日下跌35876千克。 沪银主力维持震荡格局，今日白银期货开盘报28601元/千克，最高触及29502元/千克，最低触及27018 元/千克，截止收盘报29219元/千克，上涨2.92%。 | 地区 | 仓库 | 期货 | 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上海 | 中储吴淞 | 66834 | -2713 | | | 外运华东虹桥 | 48260 | -7642 | | | 中工美供应链 | 358478 | -20525 | | | 合计 | 473572 | -30880 | | 广东 | 深圳威豹 | 34796 | -4996 | | 总计 | | 508368 | -35876 | 【基本面消息】 美国总统特朗普表示，他认为美元贬值幅度并不大，称美元"表现良好"，并预计货币价值会有波动。 当记者问他是否担心美元贬值，特朗普称："不，我认为美元表现很好。我希望回归自身应有的水平， 这是合理的做法。" 特朗普还暗示他可以操控美元汇率，他说："我可以让它像悠悠球一样涨跌。" ...