1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including basic metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It presents market performance, fundamental factors, and trading strategies for each commodity. Overall, the market conditions are complex and diverse, with different commodities facing different supply - demand situations and price trends. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Basic Metals - **Copper**: Market price continued to weaken significantly yesterday. The supply of copper ore remains tight, and the downstream demand needs to be boosted. The recommended strategy is to wait for opportunities to buy on dips [1]. - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract decreased by 0.62% compared to the previous trading day. The smelters maintain high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product start - up rate decreased slightly [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the main contract decreased by 0.68% compared to the previous trading day. Affected by pollution warnings, some northern plants stopped production. The market is expected to be in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile [1]. - **Zinc**: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc 2511 contract increased by 0.44% compared to the previous trading day. The zinc concentrate processing fee increased significantly, but the import ore loss expanded. The consumption is in the off - season, and the recommended strategy is to sell on rallies [1]. - **Lead**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead 2511 contract remained unchanged compared to the previous trading day. The supply side is marginally loose, and the demand side has mixed factors. The lead price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and the recommended strategy is to operate within a range [1][2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main 01 contract price decreased by 2.79%. The supply side is gradually reducing production, and the demand side is relatively balanced. The price is expected to operate in the range of 8600 - 9400, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The LC2601 contract price decreased by 4.52%. The supply is expected to decrease slightly in November, and the demand is strong. The price is expected to have short - term correction pressure but is supported by demand, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see [2]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The main 01 contract price decreased by 4.19%. The supply is expected to decline in November, and the downstream demand is weak. The recommended strategy is to try to buy on dips or consider selling put options [2]. - **Tin**: The price oscillated weakly. The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the domestic demand needs to be boosted. The recommended strategy is to wait for opportunities to buy on dips [2][3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main 2601 contract price decreased. The building material inventory decreased, and the supply - demand contradiction is limited. The recommended strategy is to wait and see, with the RB01 reference range of 2980 - 3050 [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The main 2601 contract price decreased. The supply - demand situation is neutral and deteriorating. The recommended strategy is to hold short positions, with the I01 reference range of 750 - 780 [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The main 2601 contract price decreased. The steel mill profit has deteriorated, and the supply - side inventory is differentiated. The recommended strategy is to wait and see, with the JM01 reference range of 1230 - 1280 [4]. Agricultural Products Market - **Soybean Meal**: The overnight CBOT soybean price fell. The supply side has a slight reduction in US soybeans and an expected increase in South American soybeans. The demand side has improved export expectations. The US soybeans may enter an oscillation phase, and the domestic market is also expected to be volatile [5][6]. - **Corn**: The futures price oscillated narrowly, and the spot price mostly rose. The new crop is expected to increase in production, and the price is expected to be weak. The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. - **Oils and Fats**: The Malaysian palm oil market rebounded slightly. The supply in Malaysia is higher than expected, and the export is expected to increase. The oils and fats market is weak and differentiated, and the recommended strategy is to focus on reverse spreads [6]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract price decreased. The international market is expected to increase in production, and the domestic market has a short - term rebound. The recommended strategy is to sell short in the futures market and sell call options [6]. - **Cotton**: The overnight US cotton price fell. The international and domestic cotton markets have different situations. The recommended strategy is to sell short on rallies, with the strategy range of 13400 - 13700 [6]. - **Eggs**: The futures price oscillated narrowly, and the spot price was stable. The supply pressure is relieved, and the demand is seasonally increasing. The egg price is expected to oscillate strongly, and the futures price is expected to oscillate within a range [6]. - **Pigs**: The futures price was weak, and the spot price fell. The supply is increasing, and the demand is seasonally increasing. The price is expected to be weak, and the futures price is also expected to be weak [6][7]. - **Apples**: The main contract price decreased. The cold - storage situation in Gansu is not optimistic, and the apple disease in Shaanxi affects the market. The trading in Shandong is active. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [7]. Energy Chemical - **LLDPE**: The main contract price continued to decline slightly. The supply pressure is increasing but at a slower pace, and the demand is weakening. The short - term price is expected to be weak and volatile, and the medium - long - term strategy is to sell short on rallies or do reverse spreads [8]. - **PTA**: The PX price is at a high level, and the PTA supply pressure is large in the long - term. The recommended strategy is to take profit on long PX positions and sell short the PTA processing fee on rallies in the far - month contracts [8]. - **Rubber**: The RU2601 contract price decreased. The rainy season in Thailand is about to end, and the inventory is expected to increase. The price is under short - term pressure [8][9]. - **PP**: The main contract price continued to decline slightly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The short - term price is expected to be weak and volatile, and the medium - long - term strategy is to sell short on rallies or do reverse spreads [9]. - **MEG**: The supply pressure is large in the long - term, and the inventory is accumulating. The recommended strategy is to sell short on rallies for the 01 contract [9]. - **Crude Oil**: The price is oscillating. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is seasonally weakening. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and if the Russian oil reduction is less than 500,000 barrels per day, it can be sold short on rallies [9]. - **Styrene**: The main contract price continued to decline slightly. The supply - demand contradiction is large, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term. The medium - long - term strategy is to sell short on rallies or do reverse spreads [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - The current interest rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve may not replicate the decisive and aggressive policy execution seen in previous cycles due to the conflicting dual mandate of maintaining price stability and full employment [3][11]. Economic Conditions - The labor market data is missing due to the government shutdown, and the economy is facing slowing pressures. Tariff policies are expected to accelerate inflation transmission, pushing core inflation to 3.5% in the second half of the year [4][8]. - The global economy is experiencing significant slowdown, with the U.S. economic growth expected to drop from nearly 3% in 2023 and 2024 to between 1.5% and 2% this year [13]. Federal Reserve's Challenges - The lack of reliable economic data due to the government shutdown complicates the Federal Reserve's policy decisions, leading to a "blind flying" situation without crucial labor market indicators [6][10]. - The Fed's cautious approach to rate cuts is influenced by the current economic conditions, with expectations of only one more rate cut this year as they await better information [10][11]. Inflation and Tariff Impact - The transmission of tariffs to inflation has been slower than expected, but it is anticipated to accelerate, with core inflation projected to rise to 3.5% by year-end [8][12]. - The current high tariff rates, around 16%-17%, are expected to further complicate the Fed's dual mandate of managing inflation and labor market conditions [8][12]. Global Economic Outlook - The global growth rate is projected to be around 2.4% this year, significantly below the historical trend of 2.7%-2.8% [13]. - Emerging markets have shown relative resilience, with smaller-than-expected impacts from tariffs and progress in controlling inflation, but there are concerns about potential negative trade data in the second half of the year [14][15][16]. Future Risks - The inflation shock from U.S. tariffs may pose a significant downside risk to the global economy in 2026, potentially leading to a reassessment of market expectations regarding the Fed's policy path [17].

Group 1 - The atmosphere surrounding the U.S. government shutdown has shifted as key deadlines approach, injecting urgency into bipartisan discussions that have been stagnant for weeks [1] - Senate Majority Leader Schumer indicated that there is increasing pressure on Republicans to negotiate, especially with the looming threat of food benefit interruptions and delays in air travel [1] - A growing number of Democratic lawmakers, including prominent progressives, are expressing support for independent legislation to mitigate the impacts of the government shutdown [1] Group 2 - Republican leaders are quietly intensifying internal discussions about the next steps, considering various versions of a new temporary funding bill, with options to delay funding issues until January 21 or even March [2] - There is a division among Republicans regarding the funding delay, with some hardliners favoring a longer postponement until December 2026, while defense hawks oppose this idea [2] - Senate Majority Leader Thune stated that any temporary funding bill expiring before the end of the year is unfeasible, emphasizing that a resolution is unlikely before December [3]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is facing a dilemma due to the lack of macroeconomic data, which undermines its confidence in decision-making [1][4] - Fitch Ratings predicts at least one interest rate cut by the end of the year, with a significant inflation pressure expected to push core inflation to 3.5% [2][6] - The ongoing government shutdown is disrupting key economic indicators, complicating the Federal Reserve's policy decisions [3][4] Group 2 - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to accelerate, with predictions of core inflation rising to 3.5% by year-end [6][7] - The U.S. economy is projected to grow between 1.5% and 2% this year, a significant slowdown from previous growth rates [10] - Emerging markets have shown resilience, with less-than-expected impacts from tariffs and progress in controlling inflation [11] Group 3 - The bond market is likely to face upward pressure on yields due to ongoing fiscal deficits, with 10-year Treasury yields expected to be around 4.4% to 4.5% in the coming years [9] - The global economic outlook remains challenging, with a projected growth rate of approximately 2.4% for the year, below historical trends [10][12] - There is a concern that the current positive sentiment may be overly optimistic, with potential negative trade data expected in the second half of the year [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Since 2025, the cumulative increases of the London Gold and Shanghai Gold indices were 57.25% and 51.89% respectively, but last week they decreased by 2.94% and 6.17% [4][21]. - The long - term bullish logic for gold remains intact, including a weakening US dollar and central bank gold purchases due to global political and economic instability [6]. - Short - term advice is to take profits on long gold positions, and for options, take profits on purchased call options [1][6]. Summary by Directory Fundamental Viewpoints - **Price Trends**: Since 2025, the London Gold and Shanghai Gold indices had significant increases, but declined last week [4][21]. - **Inflation**: CPI reached a peak of 9.1% in June 2022 and then declined. Since February 2024, CPI rebounded, and core inflation showed signs of slowing decline or rising. In September 2025, CPI slightly increased, while core CPI slightly decreased [4][24]. - **Interest Rates**: US medium - term Treasury yields declined from mid - October 2023 to January 2025, rebounded since February 2024, and fell below the 2024 low since September [4][28]. - **Supply and Demand**: When the gold market is in a tight supply - demand balance, it is conducive to price increases. In 2024, the global gold supply - demand situation became less loose, mainly due to increased investment demand. The domestic gold market remained in a tight balance in 2024 and 2025, with significant increases in investment demand and central bank gold purchases [4][41]. - **US Economy**: In August 2025, US non - farm employment data was much weaker than expected, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.3%. The average hourly wage of non - farm employees increased by 0.4% [4][37]. Strategy Viewpoints and Outlook - **Outlook**: Gold prices opened high and closed low last Friday, with a slight decline. After a significant increase due to risk - aversion sentiment, gold prices dropped on the evening of October 21st, mainly due to a decline in risk - aversion sentiment and profit - taking from overbought technical conditions. However, the long - term upward trend of gold remains [6]. - **Strategy**: For long gold positions, consider reducing positions in the medium term and setting stop - profit levels. For call options, take profits [6]. Gold Supply and Demand - **Global and Domestic Supply - Demand Tables**: When the gold market is in a tight supply - demand balance, it is beneficial for price increases. In 2024, the global gold supply - demand situation became less loose, and the domestic market remained in a tight balance [38][41]. - **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: In the second quarter of 2025, global central bank gold purchases continued to decline. The Chinese central bank has been purchasing gold since 2022, with different purchase volumes in each quarter of 2025 [45]. - **ETF Demand**: In 2023 and 2024, gold holdings in ETFs decreased. As of October 24, 2025, gold holdings in ETFs increased by 265.07 tons, but last week there was a reduction of 3.91 tons [46]. Other Market Indicators - **Exchange Rates and Dollar Index**: The report presents trends in the RMB exchange rate, the US dollar index, and exchange rates between the US dollar and other major currencies [53]. - **Gold Price Differences**: The price difference between domestic and international gold markets fluctuated significantly [69][70]. - **Precious Metal and Oil Ratios**: The report shows trends in the gold - silver ratio and the gold - oil ratio [72].

Core Insights - The core consumer price index (CPI) in the U.S. rose by 0.2% in September, marking the slowest increase in three months, which supports the Federal Reserve's path towards interest rate cuts [2][3] - The report indicates that housing costs have recorded the smallest increase since early 2021, contributing to the lower-than-expected inflation readings [2][3] - The market has fully priced in two 25 basis point rate cuts by the end of the year, with expectations for further cuts in December [5][6] Economic Data Summary - The month-over-month CPI increased by 0.3%, while the core CPI rose by 0.2%, both lower than estimates of 0.4% and 0.3% respectively [3] - Year-over-year CPI and core CPI both stood at 3.0%, slightly below the expected 3.1% [3] - The report's release was delayed due to the federal government shutdown, which has also impacted data collection for future reports [3][7] Market Reactions - Following the data release, U.S. stock markets surged, while bond yields and the dollar declined, indicating increased investor confidence in potential rate cuts [5] - Analysts believe the CPI report will keep the Federal Reserve on track for rate cuts, as it aligns with the central bank's focus on softening employment data [8] Inflation Concerns - Despite concerns about tariffs impacting inflation, the actual effects have been less severe than previously feared, with some companies warning of potential price increases due to tariffs [6] - The Federal Reserve's latest Beige Book indicated that businesses across the country reported rising input costs due to tariffs, but the impact on consumers has been uneven [6]

Core Insights - The U.S. government shutdown has led to a suspension of most official economic data releases, with the only significant hard data expected from the Federal Reserve being the September CPI, which will be released on October 24 [1] - The CPI data is anticipated to be a key anchor for market and policy expectations, with a monthly increase rate close to 0.2% potentially reinforcing "soft landing" expectations and boosting Bitcoin performance [1] - Gold has experienced a significant pullback due to a stronger dollar and profit-taking from recent highs, while Bitcoin briefly rose to approximately $114,000 before retreating to the $108,000 range, indicating high market volatility ahead of the CPI release [1]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market experienced a significant downturn after a period of record highs, with gold and silver prices plummeting to their largest daily declines in years, raising concerns among investors about future price movements [1][4][7]. Price Movements - Gold reached a historical intraday high before falling approximately 6.3% to around $4,082, marking its largest daily drop since April 2013, with a closing price of $4,130.41 per ounce [1]. - Silver also saw a dramatic decline, dropping nearly 8.7% to below $47.90, the largest intraday drop since February 2021, with a closing price of $48.7050 per ounce [4]. Market Influences - Multiple factors contributed to the pressure on precious metal prices, including expectations of easing trade tensions, a strengthening dollar, and overbought technical indicators, which diminished the safe-haven demand for these metals [7][10]. - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has led to a lack of critical positioning data, increasing uncertainty in the market and potentially allowing speculative long positions to accumulate excessively [10][12]. Technical Analysis - The relative strength index for gold indicated that prices had entered an overbought territory, prompting concerns about potential corrections and profit-taking among traders [8][11]. - Analysts noted that the absence of significant media catalysts on the day of the price drop suggested that the market was due for a correction due to extreme overbought conditions [11][12]. Investor Sentiment - Despite the sharp declines, some analysts believe that the fundamental factors supporting precious metals have not changed, and potential buying interest may limit the extent of any corrections [7][13]. - The recent lack of significant physical demand from India and the absence of key buyers in the Shanghai Gold Exchange were highlighted as notable factors contributing to the market's weakness [12][16]. Future Outlook - Analysts from various firms expressed differing views on the future of gold and silver prices, with some maintaining a bullish outlook while acknowledging the potential for a consolidation phase [10][13]. - The global largest gold ETF, GLD, saw unprecedented trading volumes, indicating heightened interest and activity in the market despite the recent downturn [14].

Key Insights - The article discusses the recent U.S. government shutdown, its unique aspects, and potential impacts on the U.S. economy and markets [8] - It highlights the historical context of government shutdowns, detailing previous instances and their durations, with the latest shutdown starting on October 1, 2025, and ongoing [8] - The article also provides insights into economic indicators, including profit growth in August and the September PMI, indicating a shift from traditional to new economic drivers [10][11] Group 1: Hot Topics - The U.S. government experienced a shutdown due to the failure to pass temporary funding, marking the first such event in nearly seven years [8] - The shutdown is characterized by a focus on extending ACA premium tax credits and disputes over healthcare funding, with both parties at an impasse [8] - Historical data on past government shutdowns is presented, showing various durations and political contexts, emphasizing the recurring nature of budgetary conflicts [8] Group 2: Economic Data Insights - August profit growth is attributed to a low base effect and other financial factors, despite ongoing cost pressures [10] - The September PMI data indicates a notable recovery in new economic drivers, suggesting a need to monitor the effectiveness of growth stabilization policies in key industries [11] - Consumer behavior during the National Day holiday is analyzed, revealing trends such as a decrease in traditional tourist site popularity and an increase in cross-border travel [13]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion revolves around the impact of the U.S. government shutdown on various sectors, including employment, economic indicators, and financial markets. Core Points and Arguments - **Government Shutdown Causes**: The shutdown is primarily due to the failure of bipartisan agreement on temporary spending bills or the budget for fiscal year 2026, leading to a halt in non-essential government operations [3][4][5] - **Impact on Employment**: Federal employees will face temporary furloughs, which may distort employment data. Temporary workers contracted by private companies may also face layoffs, increasing unemployment rates [8][9] - **Effect on Economic Indicators**: The shutdown could exert short-term pressure on GDP and PMI indicators. Historical data shows that economic losses from shutdowns are often recoverable, but not all losses are fully compensated [14] - **Federal Employee Wages**: Wages for federal employees will be paused during the shutdown but will be compensated later. This delay may negatively impact consumer spending and overall economic activity [6][7] - **Debt Obligations**: U.S. Treasury bonds will not default due to the shutdown, as interest payments are classified as necessary expenditures. The risk of a debt crisis remains low [9][10] - **Data Release Delays**: The shutdown may delay the release of key economic data, such as manufacturing PMI and non-farm payroll figures, particularly if the departments responsible are affected by the shutdown [10][11][12] - **Differences Between Shutdown and Debt Ceiling**: The government shutdown is distinct from debt ceiling issues, which involve the inability to issue new debt once the limit is reached. The former does not typically lead to long-term market disruptions [13] - **Market Reactions**: Risk assets tend to perform poorly before a shutdown but may rebound afterward. The current market sentiment is cautiously optimistic regarding the resolution of the shutdown [14][16][19] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Political Dynamics**: The current political landscape is marked by significant divisions, particularly regarding healthcare spending, which complicates negotiations [14][15] - **Trump's Influence**: Former President Trump's personal agenda may uniquely affect the situation, potentially leading to unprecedented market reactions [15][18] - **Market Outlook**: If the shutdown persists, particularly influenced by Trump's actions, it could lead to a reevaluation of the dollar and Treasury bonds, with potential benefits for gold [17][18]