Core Viewpoint - The recent reduction in USD deposit rates by multiple banks is primarily influenced by the Federal Reserve's shift in monetary policy and changes in market liquidity, leading to a competitive adjustment in deposit rates [4][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - On September 17, the Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, marking its first rate cut since December 2024 [2]. - This decision prompted immediate responses from banks, with HSBC announcing a reduction in USD fixed deposit rates on the same day [2]. Group 2: Bank Responses - HSBC adjusted its USD deposit rates for 1-month and 6-month terms to 3.5%, down by 10 and 20 basis points respectively, while the 1-month and 6-month rates for deposits starting at $50,000 were set at 3.6% [2]. - Standard Chartered Bank lowered its USD deposit rates for 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year terms to 3.8%, with 1-month to 1-year rates at 3.6% and 2-year rates at 3.0% [3]. - Huashang Bank reduced its USD deposit rates by 25 basis points across various terms, with rates now at 3.75%, 3.85%, and 3.90% for 1-month, 3-month, and 6-month deposits respectively [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The decline in USD deposit rates is attributed to the dual impact of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shift and the strengthening of the RMB, which encourages investors to allocate more to RMB assets [4]. - Banks are proactively reducing costs in anticipation of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which diminishes the incentive for high-interest deposit acquisition [4]. - The previous high USD deposit rates led to significant growth in foreign currency deposits, increasing pressure on banks regarding the utilization of foreign currency funds, especially as yields on USD assets decline [5].

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed the 3900-point mark, with a surge in precious metals and gold stocks, leading to multiple stocks hitting the daily limit up [1] - The recent gold price rally is attributed to the international gold price breaking historical levels, expectations of a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and continuous gold purchases by the domestic central bank [1] - During the National Day holiday, gold prices reached new highs, with COMEX gold briefly exceeding $4060 per ounce, resulting in a cumulative increase of 4.45% during the holiday [1] Group 2 - The performance of individual stocks is supported by corporate earnings and resource control, with Western Gold achieving a revenue of 5.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 69.01%, and a net profit of 154 million yuan, up 131.94% [2] - Western Gold has completed 60% of its annual mining target by mid-year and acquired 100% of Xinjiang Meisheng, expected to start production in the second half of 2025, with a production capacity of 4000 tons per day [2] - Sichuan Gold also reported strong performance, with a revenue of 442 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.92%, and a net profit of 209 million yuan, up 48.41% [2]

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent surge in gold prices, with spot gold trading around $4020 per ounce and reaching a record high of $4059.07 per ounce due to geopolitical and economic uncertainties, as well as expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][4] - The article highlights the impact of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shift, with traders betting on an over 80% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming meeting [1] - The analysis also covers the technical aspects of gold and oil prices, suggesting a bullish outlook for gold and a mixed outlook for oil, with specific support and resistance levels provided for trading strategies [3][5] Gold Market Analysis - Spot gold prices have recently surpassed the $4000 mark, marking a significant milestone in the market [1] - The surge in gold prices is attributed to increased demand for safe-haven assets amid rising geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty [1] - Technical analysis indicates that gold remains in a strong bullish trend, with key support levels identified between $4000 and $3990, and resistance levels between $4048 and $4058 [3] Oil Market Analysis - West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is trading around $62 per barrel, with recent price increases driven by expectations of continued sanctions on Russia and strong U.S. oil consumption [4] - The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a significant increase in crude oil inventories, which contrasts with declines in gasoline and distillate inventories, indicating a supply-demand mismatch in the energy market [4] - Technical analysis suggests a mixed outlook for oil prices, with short-term support levels identified between $61.0 and $60.0, and resistance levels between $63.5 and $64.5 [5]

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The price of spot gold has reached a historic high, surpassing $4000 per ounce, with a peak at $4036.98 [1] - The Federal Reserve's shift in monetary policy is a significant driver behind the surge in gold prices, with market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut this month and another in December [1] - Traders are increasingly optimistic about gold reaching the $5000 mark, driven by expectations of continued monetary easing [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - The current strategy for trading gold focuses on identifying entry points rather than predicting price peaks, maintaining a bullish outlook [3] - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3983 and $3975, while resistance is noted at $4060-4070 [3] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - U.S. crude oil prices are rebounding, supported by the American Petroleum Institute's inventory report, which showed a significant increase in crude oil stocks [4] - The report indicates a mismatch in supply and demand, with strong consumption of gasoline and distillates, providing support for oil prices [4] - The oil market is expected to remain volatile, influenced by upcoming EIA data and fluctuations in the U.S. dollar [4] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - The medium-term trend for oil prices is downward, with current trading showing a lack of strength in bullish movements [5] - Short-term trading strategies suggest focusing on buying on dips, with resistance levels at $63.5-64.5 and support at $61.0-60.0 [5]

Group 1: Gold Market - The spot gold price has surpassed $4000 per ounce for the first time, reaching a high of $4036.98 before trading around $4032.16 [1] - The Federal Reserve's shift in monetary policy is a significant driver behind this surge, with market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut this month and another in December exceeding 80% [1] - Traders are now focusing on the next psychological level of $5000, indicating strong bullish sentiment in the gold market [1] Group 2: Silver Market - The current strategy for silver involves waiting for a pullback to support levels around $47 or $46.5 to initiate long positions, as the market has not yet reached these levels [3] - There is speculation on whether silver can rally and reach new highs following gold's recent performance, with support maintained around $47 [3] Group 3: Crude Oil Market - International crude oil has shown mixed performance, with a recent high of $62.2, but overall demand for a rebound is evident despite some fluctuations [4] - The strategy for crude oil remains bullish as long as prices hold above the $60 support level, with potential for further gains if prices stabilize above $62.5 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market is experiencing strong upward momentum driven by the potential U.S. government shutdown and a weakening U.S. dollar, with gold prices reaching historical highs [1][3]. Gold Market - Spot gold prices reached a peak of $3833.94 per ounce, closing at $3833.71, marking a daily increase of 1.89% [1]. - In the Asian market, gold opened at $3833.12 per ounce, fluctuated between $3825.50 and $3851.74, and remained around $3847 per ounce during analysis [3]. - The overall bullish trend in gold is supported by a declining U.S. dollar index, which closed at 97.94, down 0.26% [3]. Silver Market - Spot silver also saw significant gains, closing at $46.908 per ounce with a rise of 1.93% [1]. Energy Market - The energy market showed mixed results, with WTI crude oil prices falling to $62.73 per barrel, down 2.97%, while U.S. natural gas prices increased to $3.275 per million British thermal units, up 3.085% [3]. Stock Market - U.S. stock indices showed slight gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.15%, the S&P 500 up 0.26%, and the Nasdaq Composite up 0.48% [4]. European Stock Market - European stock indices mostly rose, with the DAX30 up 0.07%, FTSE 100 up 0.14%, and CAC40 up 0.13%, while the IBEX35 and FTSE MIB saw slight declines [5]. Economic Data - Recent economic data from the Eurozone and the U.S. showed mixed results, with the Eurozone economic sentiment improving slightly, while U.S. housing market indicators exceeded expectations [7]. - The Dallas Fed's business activity index fell short of expectations, indicating pressure on some U.S. regions [7]. Federal Reserve Commentary - Divergent views emerged among Federal Reserve officials regarding future interest rate cuts, with some advocating for caution due to potential economic data shortages from a government shutdown [8][9]. Geopolitical Developments - The geopolitical landscape remains tense, particularly regarding U.S.-Israel relations and the ongoing situation in Gaza, which could impact market stability [10]. Technical Analysis - Technical indicators for gold suggest a strong upward trend, with prices consistently above short-term moving averages and increasing momentum [10][11].

（原标题：高盛分析师警告：美国经济可能重新加速 小心美联储货币政策转向） 智通财经APP获悉，9月28日，高盛分析师 Cosimo Codacci-Pisanelli 和 Rikin Shah 在最新报告中称，美 国经济面临重新加速的可能性正在上升，这一预期建立在劳动力市场韧性、财政刺激预期以及宽松金融 环境等多重利好因素基础之上。 报告称，这一经济重新加速的前景将对美联储货币政策路径产生重要影响，特别是在美联储选出新主席 人选的背景下。高盛指出，关键问题在于美联储是否会在经济健康运行时仍将利率降至中性水平以下， 以及是否能够在特朗普任期内实施加息政策。 Part.01 多重顺风助推经济 "重新加速" 高盛的分析显示，美国经济在多项关键指标上展现出强劲表现。 据高盛称,其美国宏观经济意外指数 (US MAP surprise index) 近期大幅飙升，本周的初请失业金人数也令 人鼓舞。该行全球投资研究部 (GIR) 预计，美国第三季度 GDP 环比年化增长率将达到 2.6%的健康水 平。 风险资产的良好表现、美联储未来的降息预期以及美元走弱，共同营造了宽松的金融环境。 财政与投资 报告列举了推动这一风险的关 ...

9月28日，高盛分析师 Cosimo Codacci-Pisanelli 和 Rikin Shah 在最新报告中称，美国经济面临重新加速 的可能性正在上升，这一预期建立在劳动力市场韧性、财政刺激预期以及宽松金融环境等多重利好因素 基础之上。 02 财政与投资 报告称，这一经济重新加速的前景将对美联储货币政策路径产生重要影响，特别是在美联储选出新主席 人选的背景下。高盛指出，关键问题在于美联储是否会在经济健康运行时仍将利率降至中性水平以下， 以及是否能够在特朗普任期内实施加息政策。 Part.01 多重顺风助推经济 "重新加速" 高盛的分析显示，美国经济在多项关键指标上展现出强劲表现。 据高盛称,其美国宏观经济意外指数 (US MAP surprise index) 近期大幅飙升，本周的初请失业金人数也令 人鼓舞。该行全球投资研究部 (GIR) 预计，美国第三季度 GDP 环比年化增长率将达到 2.6%的健康水 平。 报告列举了推动这一风险的关键因素： 01 宽松的金融条件 风险资产的良好表现、美联储未来的降息预期以及美元走弱，共同营造了宽松的金融环境。 预计明年上半年将迎来积极的财政政策脉冲，同时人工智能领域 ...

Market Overview - Domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance with the main contracts mostly declining, while silver rose over 4% and gold increased by over 1% [1] - The commodities that experienced significant declines included coking coal and glass, both dropping over 3%, while coking and paper pulp fell over 2% [1] Futures Contract Performance - The latest data indicates that the coking coal contract decreased by 3.95%, while glass and coking contracts fell by 3.18% and 2.82% respectively [2] - In contrast, silver and gold contracts showed positive movement, with silver increasing by 4.03% and gold by 1.07% [2] Economic Context - The gold market is influenced by ongoing geopolitical tensions and the potential government shutdown in the U.S., which may lead to increased volatility during the upcoming holiday period [3] - The core PCE price index data for August showed a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, aligning with expectations, and consumer spending has risen for three consecutive months [3]

美元或将出现持续且广泛的抛售，这是来自大摩的最新判断，且认为政府关门是美元的"潜在利空"因素。 9月23日，据追风交易台消息，摩根士丹利在最新研报中称， 美元已进入"熊市机制"，预计这一状态将持续更长时间，带来广泛的美元卖压。 大摩策略师David S. Adams认为，美联储在鲍威尔杰克逊霍尔讲话后明确转向优先保护就业市场，即便以容忍高于目标的通胀为代价， 这一政策立场的转变 为美元熊市提供了持续动力 。 美联储政策转向触发美元熊市机制 摩根士丹利在年中展望中曾预测美元将持续走弱，但当时预期最可能的市场机制是"防御机制"，即实际利率和盈亏平衡点同时下降。 然而，自5月以来的实际情况有所不同： 实际利率确实下降了，但盈亏平衡点有所扩大。这种动态正是该行四机制框架所显示的"美元熊市机制"。 大摩指出， 关键的是，市场定价显示美元的利差优势将在未来12个月内下降近100个基点，这将显著降低做空美元的成本。 美国政府关门风险正在上升， 摩根士丹利认为这对美元构成潜在利空 。Polymarket市场数据显示，政府关门概率近期明显上升，这可能进一步 增加美元的风 险溢价 。 研报称，美联储货币政策委员会反应函数的明显转 ...