上证报中国证券网讯（记者 张骄）北京时间12月2日凌晨，伦敦现货白银价格首次突破58美元/盎司， 续写新高纪录，盘中最大涨幅超4%。至此，现货白银年内累计涨幅已超100%，成为本年度名副其实的 贵金属"领涨王"。 美联储货币政策转向是此轮贵金属定价的关键变量。12月2日，据CME"美联储观 察"，美联储12月降息25个基点的概率升至87.6%。这一明确的宽松信号，正在重塑白银的金融属性。 此外，分析报告显示，纽约COMEX白银期货进入交割期，白银供应趋紧。这一市场预期也为白银的火 爆再添"一把柴"。 降息预期升温催化"超级行情" 在美联储货币政策宽松预期与全球供应趋紧的双重推 动下，白银掀起"主升浪"。 五矿期货研究中心贵金属研究员钟俊轩告诉上海证券报记者，现任美联储 主席鲍威尔的任期将于2026年5月结束，而他的继任者将对美联储后续数年的货币政策倾向产生显著影 响。 美联储官员近期的鸽派言论强化了上述预期。近日，美联储理事米兰、沃勒均表态支持降息。此 外，美联储"三把手"、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯日前也表示，美联储"近期"仍可能降息，而不会危及其通 胀目标。 从年内行情轨迹看，白银"牛市"追随黄金，但爆发力更强 ...

百利好APP是百利好旗下一款结合先进金融科技的流动应用程式，为投资者提供各类产品报价、行情分析资讯、交易平台及推 送信息等功能服务，务求令客户运筹帷幄，占尽投资先机。 【免责声明】以上内容由百利好提供，仅供参考，不构成任何操作建议。据此操作，风险自担。 美联储已于本周进入12月政策会议前的例行静默期。根据日程，主席鲍威尔将于美东时间周一晚间发表讲话，但由于处于会前 沟通限制阶段，市场普遍预期其言论将避免涉及货币政策具体走向。 在此背景下，贵金属市场持续走强。12月1日亚洲早盘，现货黄金持稳于4220美元/盎司上方；现货白银则大幅上涨，盘中首次 触及57美元/盎司关口。国内方面，上海期货交易所白银主力合约单日涨幅显著，月线已实现连续八个月上扬。今年以来白银表 现尤为突出，自9月初突破40美元后涨势延续，近期更一度升至57.86美元高位。 本周市场关注点将转向多项关键经济数据的发布。周一将公布美国11月制造业PMI终值；周三的ADP就业报告因非农数据推迟发 布而更受关注；周四的裁员报告亦将提供就业市场线索。尤其值得关注的是将于周五发布的9月个人消费支出（PCE）价格指 数，该指标被视为美联储评估通胀趋势的重要依据 ...

来源：中国黄金网 临近年末，黄金市场正迎来短期积极信号共振，在美联储货币政策转向预期、美元汇率调整与全球资金 配置再平衡的共同作用下，国际金价有望在12月开局走出强势行情，甚至向4300美元/盎司关口发起冲 击，成为年末资产配置中的一大亮点。 国际金价这波反弹行情的启动，核心驱动力源于美联储货币政策风向的微妙转变。11月下旬，美联 储"三巨头"之一的威廉斯公开释放降息信号，明确表示短期内适度降息既能缓解就业市场压力，又不会 引发通胀反弹，这一表态打破了此前市场对货币政策延续紧缩的预期。 随后，多位美联储官员相继跟进支持12月降息，使得市场对该节点降息的概率预期从30％上升至80％以 上。在市场看来，威廉斯作为核心决策层成员，其言论必然与美联储主席鲍威尔形成共识，这标志着美 联储货币政策已进入"转向视窗期"。 而近期传出的美联储主席人事变动传闻，进一步强化了市场对降息力度升级的预期，原本今明两年3次 降息的预判被上修至4-5次，终端利率有望降至2.75％，这种宽松预期直接提升了黄金作为非收益资产 的配置价值。 与此同时，日元汇率的潜在反弹也在间接加剧美元调整压力。日本政局变动引发市场对安倍经济学延续 性的担忧， ...

Core Viewpoint - Emerging market assets are expected to continue strong performance until 2026, driven by a weaker dollar and explosive growth in AI investments [1][2]. Group 1: Dollar Weakness - The expectation of rising emerging market assets is largely based on the Federal Reserve's shift in monetary policy and a weaker dollar [2]. - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will exert downward pressure on the dollar, creating a favorable environment for emerging markets [3]. - The depreciation of the dollar has already shown positive effects on emerging market currencies this year, with a Bloomberg index indicating that returns from eight emerging market arbitrage trades funded by shorting the dollar have surged over 12%, marking the strongest performance since the global financial crisis [4]. Group 2: AI Investment Surge - In addition to favorable macroeconomic conditions, significant capital expenditures in the AI sector are seen as a strong support for emerging markets. JPMorgan predicts that U.S. capital expenditures related to AI will reach $628 billion by 2028, impacting emerging markets through increased tech product exports and rising metal prices [6]. - JPMorgan maintains a bullish stance on emerging market currencies and local currency bonds, expecting inflows of $40 to $50 billion into emerging market bond funds next year [6]. - Improved market sentiment and structural underweighting of emerging market assets by investors are expected to drive capital inflows [7]. Group 3: Institutional Optimism - Major institutions like Bank of America and Goldman Sachs predict further dollar weakness, with Bank of America’s baseline scenario anticipating a weaker dollar, declining interest rates, low oil prices, and moderate stock market gains [5]. - However, Bank of America also cautions that volatility may be higher than in the past six months, noting that historical trends indicate risk premiums typically do not remain at low levels for extended periods [5].

【黄金期货行情表现】 11月25日，沪金主力暂报946.50元/克，涨幅达1.48%，今日沪金主力开盘价935.60元/克，截至目前最高 949.78元/克，最低933.38元/克。 SPDR黄金信托基金报告称，截至11月24日，其持仓量增加0.03%，即0.29吨，至1040.86吨。 【宏观消息】 【机构观点】 美联储官员近期释放的货币政策信号对贵金属市场产生重要影响。旧金山联储主席戴利表示支持12月降 息，认为就业市场突然恶化的风险比通胀上升更大，这一鸽派表态增强了市场对美联储即将放松货币政 策的预期。与此同时，美联储理事沃勒指出关税对通胀的影响有限，只是一次性的，这缓解了市场对通 胀压力的担忧。这些言论共同推动了市场对美联储政策转向的预期，为黄金等避险资产提供了支撑。 逻辑：美联储内部支持降息的声音增加，美国经济数据发布推迟，地缘政治风险及央行增持黄金也对金 价形成支撑。数据：国际金价收 4134.63 美元 / 盎司，涨幅 1.72%，金价维持在 4000-4150 美元区间震 荡。观点：中长期贵金属牛市行情延续，若突破阻力金价或涨至 4200 美元上方。 泰国央行计划收紧黄金交易的报告规定，此前黄 ...

1. Macroeconomic Data Overview - GDP growth rate in Q3 2025 was 4.8% year-on-year, down from 5.2% in the previous quarter but up from 4.6% in the same period last year [1] - In October 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down from 49.8% in the previous month and 50.1% in the same period last year [1] - The non-manufacturing PMI for business activities in October 2025 was 50.1%, up from 50.0% in the previous month but down from 50.2% in the same period last year [1] - The incremental social financing scale in October 2025 was 816.1 billion yuan, down from 3.5299 trillion yuan in the previous month and 1.412 trillion yuan in the same period last year [1] - In October 2025, the year-on-year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 were 10.6%, 6.2%, and 8.2% respectively, showing a downward trend compared to the previous month [1] - New RMB loans in October 2025 were 220 billion yuan, down from 1.29 trillion yuan in the previous month and 500 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] - In October 2025, the year-on-year growth rates of CPI and PPI were 0.2% and -2.1% respectively [1] - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) from January to October 2025 was -1.7%, showing a decline [1] - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods from January to October 2025 was 4.28%, slightly down from the previous month but up from the same period last year [1] - In October 2025, the year-on-year growth rates of export and import values were -1.1% and 1.0% respectively, showing a significant change compared to the previous month [1] 2. Commodity Investment Reference Comprehensive - On the evening of November 24th, Chinese President Xi Jinping had a phone call with US President Trump, emphasizing the importance of Sino-US cooperation and clarifying China's stance on the Taiwan issue [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on the special management measures for central budgetary investment in rural revitalization, with different investment amounts allocated according to the rural population of each county [3] - Li Muchun, a member of the Party Committee and Deputy General Manager of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, announced three key development directions, including enriching the variety system, strengthening market services and training, and promoting high-level opening-up [3] - On November 24th, 43 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, while 24 had negative basis. Among them, Shanghai nickel, Zhengzhou cotton, and cast aluminum alloy had the largest basis, while butadiene rubber, apples, and strong wheat had the smallest [4][5] - San Francisco Fed President Daly supported a rate cut in December, and Fed Governor Waller's remarks alleviated market concerns about inflation, jointly boosting market expectations of a Fed policy shift [5] Metals - The Shenzhen Financial Commission warned the public about illegal gold investment activities [6] - On November 24th, international precious metal futures generally closed higher due to the Fed's monetary policy signals [6] - The Thai central bank plans to tighten gold trading reporting regulations [6] - According to LME inventory data on November 21st, lead and copper inventories increased, while aluminum, nickel, and tin inventories decreased [7][8] - Bank of America predicted that the gold price could reach $5000 per ounce by 2026 [8] - As of November 24th, the holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust increased by 0.03% [8] Coking Coal, Steel, and Minerals - As of mid-November, the prices of coke and coking coal increased month-on-month [9] - The fourth round of coke price hikes was implemented, squeezing steel mills' profits. Coke prices may face downward pressure at the end of the month or early December [9] - The US Commerce Secretary demanded that the EU change digital regulations to reduce steel and aluminum tariffs, but the EU refused [9] - From April to October, India's finished steel imports decreased year-on-year, and steel prices faced downward pressure in October [9] - BHP's acquisition offer for Anglo American Resources indicates intensifying competition in the global copper mining market [9] Energy and Chemicals - From November 10th to 21st, international oil prices fluctuated downward, and domestic gasoline and diesel prices were lowered on November 24th [10][11] - As of the end of October 2025, the cumulative proven geological reserves of coalbed methane in China exceeded 700 billion cubic meters [11] - As of the end of October, China's total installed power generation capacity was 3.75 billion kilowatts, with significant growth in solar and wind power [11] - Goldman Sachs predicted a decline in Dutch TTF natural gas prices from 2026 to 2027 and recommended shorting the Q3 2027 futures [11] - JPMorgan maintained its 2026 oil price forecast, with a target of $58 for Brent crude and $54 for WTI crude [11] Agricultural Products - In 2025, the domestic pig market was sluggish, with prices declining and supply increasing due to higher sow存栏 and production efficiency. Terminal demand was weak, and secondary fattening decreased [12] - From January to October, Russia's corn exports to China increased significantly, and in September, Russian corn accounted for about 34% of China's total corn imports [12] 3. Financial News Compilation Open Market - On November 24th, the central bank conducted 338.7 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 55.7 billion yuan [14] - The central bank announced a 1 trillion yuan MLF operation on November 25th, with a net investment of 100 billion yuan for the month [14] - The central bank issued 45 billion yuan of RMB central bank bills in Hong Kong [14] - The Ministry of Finance and the central bank conducted treasury cash management commercial bank time deposit tenders, with a total winning amount of 200 billion yuan [15] Key News - President Xi Jinping emphasized the importance of Sino-US cooperation in a phone call with US President Trump [16] - China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded to Japan's proposal for a China-Japan-South Korea leaders' meeting, citing issues with the current conditions [16][17] - Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng held a video call with French Minister of Economy, Finance, Industry, Energy, and Digital Sovereignty, expressing willingness to deepen economic and financial cooperation [17] - The National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on central budgetary investment in rural revitalization [17] - In the first three quarters of this year, China's total foreign direct investment increased by 4.4% year-on-year, with investment in 151 countries and regions [18] - In October, China's new productive forces continued to grow, with high-tech industries showing double-digit growth [18] - As of the end of October, China's total installed power generation capacity increased by 17.3% year-on-year [18] - The Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region plans to resolve hidden debts and other risks [19] - The issuance of interbank science and technology innovation bonds exceeded 530 billion yuan, with increased participation from private enterprises [20] - The use of risk-sharing tools for science and technology innovation bonds is expanding, and new bonds are about to be issued [20] - The Shanghai Bill Exchange's comprehensive service platform was launched, and the first bill discounting business was completed [20] - Four private equity investment institutions plan to issue 930 million yuan of science and technology innovation bonds [21] - Inner Mongolia will issue 10.4 billion yuan of refinancing bonds on December 1st [21] - Fed Governor Waller and San Francisco Fed President Daly supported a rate cut in December [21] - Several companies had major bond events, including overdue debts, management changes, and regulatory measures [21][22] - Moody's and Fitch issued credit ratings for multiple companies [22] Bond Market Summary - China's bond market fluctuated narrowly, with bond futures rising and the money market easing [23] - Some bonds in the exchange market rose, while others fell. The real estate bond and high-yield urban investment bond indices increased slightly [23] - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose by 0.22%, and some convertible bonds had significant price changes [24][25] - Money market interest rates showed mixed trends, with some rising and some falling [25] - Treasury bond and financial bond auctions had different winning yields and multiples [26] - European and US bond yields generally declined [27][28] Foreign Exchange Market - The onshore RMB against the US dollar rose by 47 points, and the central parity rate was raised by 28 points [29] - The US dollar index rose slightly, and most non-US currencies had mixed performance [29] Research Report Highlights - Yangtze River Fixed Income believed that the bond market may decline due to "fixed income +" fund redemptions but could rebound with rate cut expectations [30] - Xingzheng Fixed Income suggested focusing on credit bond liquidity and medium-term credit bonds [30] - Xingzheng Fixed Income analyzed the situation of treasury bond futures and provided trading strategies [30] - Huatai Fixed Income attributed the weak bond market to multiple factors and recommended trading strategies [31][32] - Huatai Fixed Income was cautious about convertible bonds in the short term and had a positive outlook in the medium term [32] - CITIC Securities analyzed the reasons for the simultaneous decline of stocks and bonds and predicted the range of the 10-year treasury bond yield [32] - CICC believed that the trend of household deposits moving to the market would support the A-share market [33] Today's Reminders - On November 25th, 220 bonds will be listed, 179 bonds will be issued, 108 bonds will be paid, and 242 bonds will have principal and interest repaid [34] 4. Stock Market News - The A-share market rose slightly, with military, AI, and other concepts performing well, while lithium mines declined. The trading volume reached 1.74 trillion yuan [35] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose by 1.97%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index soared by 2.78%. Southbound funds had a net purchase of 8.571 billion Hong Kong dollars [35] - As of November 24th, 800 listed companies received significant shareholder increases, with a total increase of 115.821 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44.69% [35]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market experienced volatility, with major indices rebounding after a dip, while Chinese concept stocks, particularly Alibaba, faced significant declines due to a false rumor impacting market sentiment [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Alibaba's stock initially rose by 1.6% but later plummeted by 3.78%, closing at $153.80, influenced by a false rumor [2][3]. - The trading volume for Alibaba reached 33.99 million shares, with a total transaction value of $5.286 billion [2]. Group 2: Rumor and Response - A false claim circulated that the U.S. White House accused Alibaba of providing user data to the Chinese military, which was later debunked as lacking factual basis [3][5]. - Alibaba officially denied the allegations, labeling them as malicious and unfounded [5][7]. Group 3: Broader Implications - The incident reflects a pattern of market manipulation through misinformation, similar to past occurrences with other companies like Tencent [5]. - The market's reaction to the rumor indicates a growing resilience among rational investors, as evidenced by a recovery in Alibaba's stock price during after-hours trading [7]. Group 4: Macro Economic Context - Recent shifts in expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy have created uncertainty, with the probability of a rate cut dropping below 50% [9]. - The potential tightening of liquidity could adversely affect global stock markets, particularly emerging markets and technology sectors [9][11].

转自：期货日报 近期，黄金与白银价格在短暂调整后重拾强势，特别是周四白银表现亮眼：沪银价格创下上市新高，外 盘银价也一度逼近前期高点。记者了解到，这是宏观经济预期与品种自身基本面因素共振的结果。 据金瑞期货研究所贵金属研究员吴梓杰介绍，贵金属强势上行最核心的驱动力，源于市场对美联储货币 政策即将转向的强烈预期。近期披露的一些非官方经济数据，例如降温的劳动力市场和持续疲软的消费 者信心指数，被市场普遍解读为美国经济活力放缓的明确信号，这极大地强化了投资者对美联储将在不 久后降息以应对潜在衰退风险的判断。 吴梓杰表示，在此背景下，美国政府"停摆"的终结成为了一个关键的催化剂，其利好效应体现在多个层 面：首先，政府恢复正常运作后，积压的官方经济数据（尤其是就业数据）将得以发布，市场普遍预期 这些数据会进一步证实经济走弱的趋势，从而为美联储在12月降息提供更坚实的数据支持；其次，政府 重新"开门"意味着财政支出有望重回扩张轨道，并且可能伴随着财政部一般账户（TGA）流动性的重新 释放，这将共同为市场注入更多流动性；最后，亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克即将退休的消息，也被市场 解读为美联储内部可能进一步"转鸽"的信号，进一步 ...

近期，黄金与白银价格在短暂调整后重拾强势，特别是周四白银表现亮眼：沪银价格创下上市新高，外 盘银价也一度逼近前期高点。期货日报记者了解到，这是宏观经济预期与品种自身基本面因素共振的结 果。 据金瑞期货研究所贵金属研究员吴梓杰介绍，贵金属强势上行最核心的驱动力，源于市场对美联储货币 政策即将转向的强烈预期。近期披露的一些非官方经济数据，例如降温的劳动力市场和持续疲软的消费 者信心指数，被市场普遍解读为美国经济活力放缓的明确信号，这极大地强化了投资者对美联储将在不 久后降息以应对潜在衰退风险的判断。 吴梓杰表示，在此背景下，美国政府"停摆"的终结成为了一个关键的催化剂，其利好效应体现在多个层 面：首先，政府恢复正常运作后，积压的官方经济数据（尤其是就业数据）将得以发布，市场普遍预期 这些数据会进一步证实经济走弱的趋势，从而为美联储在12月降息提供更坚实的数据支持；其次，政府 重新"开门"意味着财政支出有望重回扩张轨道，并且可能伴随着财政部一般账户（TGA）流动性的重新 释放，这将共同为市场注入更多流动性；最后，亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克即将退休的消息，也被市场 解读为美联储内部可能进一步"转鸽"的信号，进一步巩固了 ...

Core Viewpoint - The acceleration of global central banks' "de-dollarization" is leading to a structural change in the international monetary system, with an increasing share of gold in foreign exchange reserves over the past 15 years [1][2]. Group 1: Central Bank Actions - Global central banks are significantly increasing their gold reserves, providing strong structural support for gold prices. By the second quarter of 2025, the share of the US dollar in global foreign exchange reserves is expected to drop to 56.32%, the lowest since 1995 [1][2]. - One-third of the 75 central banks managing $5 trillion in assets plan to increase their gold reserves in the next 1-2 years, marking a five-year high [1][2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The recent surge in gold prices is not solely driven by market sentiment but is a result of long-term adjustments in monetary reserve structures by global central banks [2]. - The demand for gold from central banks has exceeded 1,000 tons for two consecutive years, providing a structural floor for gold prices [2]. Group 3: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and the US's internal "de-globalization" trends are reshaping the pricing logic of gold, transitioning from market-driven pricing to a focus on national sovereign reserve currency pricing [3][4]. - The decline in the US dollar index, which has dropped nearly 10% since 2025, is correlated with the rise in gold prices, as the weakening dollar makes gold more attractive to holders of other currencies [4]. Group 4: Investment Trends - Institutional investors are increasingly accumulating gold, with North American and European markets leading in gold ETFs [4]. - The expectation of a new round of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, with a 98.3% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October, is lowering the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, further driving investment into the gold market [4]. Group 5: Currency Reallocation - The rise of the renminbi as a potential asset class is highlighted, with 30% of global central banks planning to increase their allocation to renminbi assets, which may rise to 6% in foreign exchange reserves [6]. - The structural transformation of the renminbi's exchange rate is supported by improvements in China's manufacturing sector, particularly in high-value-added industries [6].