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塑料日报:震荡下行-20251111
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-11-11 10:47
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - On November 11, the plastic operating rate remained at around 88%, in a neutral level The PE downstream operating rate dropped 0.52 percentage points to 44.85% month - on - month, still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral - to - high level compared to the same period in recent years The crude oil price fluctuated narrowly New production capacities were put into operation, and the plastic operating rate decreased slightly The peak season of agricultural film was not as good as expected, and the downstream purchasing willingness was insufficient Traders were cautious about the future market and actively sold goods at reduced prices There was no actual anti - involution policy in the plastic industry It is expected that plastics will continue to fluctuate weakly in the near future [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - On November 11, the plastic operating rate was around 88%, a neutral level The PE downstream operating rate decreased 0.52 percentage points to 44.85% month - on - month The agricultural film was in the peak season with increasing orders and stable raw material inventory, but the packaging film orders decreased slightly The petrochemical inventory was at a neutral - to - high level compared to the same period in recent years The crude oil price fluctuated narrowly due to factors such as Russia's oil sanctions and OPEC+ production decisions New production capacities were put into operation, and the plastic operating rate decreased slightly The peak season of agricultural film was not as expected, and the downstream purchasing willingness was insufficient Traders were cautious and sold goods at reduced prices There was no anti - involution policy in the plastic industry, which would affect the subsequent market It is expected that plastics will fluctuate weakly in the near future [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions 3.2.1 Futures - The plastic 2601 contract decreased in position, fluctuated downward, with a minimum price of 6758 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6815 yuan/ton, and closed at 6760 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.41% The position decreased by 1974 lots to 584333 lots [2] 3.2.2 Spot - The PE spot market showed mixed trends, with price changes ranging from - 50 to + 50 yuan/ton LLDPE was reported at 6740 - 7270 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8770 - 9580 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7010 - 8090 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On November 11, the plastic operating rate remained at around 88%, a neutral level - Demand: As of the week of November 7, the PE downstream operating rate decreased 0.52 percentage points to 44.85% month - on - month The agricultural film was in the peak season with increasing orders and stable raw material inventory, but the packaging film orders decreased slightly The overall PE downstream operating rate was at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years - Petrochemical inventory: On Tuesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 1000 tons to 71000 tons, 1000 tons higher than the same period last year It was at a neutral - to - high level compared to the same period in recent years - Raw material: The Brent crude oil 01 contract fluctuated around $64/barrel The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $730/ton month - on - month, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $740/ton month - on - month [4]
PP日报:震荡下行-20251111
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-11-11 10:39
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The PP industry is expected to experience weak and volatile trends in the near future due to factors such as limited downstream order follow - up, insufficient stock - up demand during Double Eleven, and the lack of large - scale centralized procurement [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - PP downstream开工率 increased by 0.52 percentage points to 53.14% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. Among them, the plastic weaving开工率 rose by 0.26 percentage points to 44.46%, with a slight increase in orders but slightly lower than last year [1][4] - On November 11, new maintenance devices such as Hainan Ethylene were added, causing the PP enterprise开工率 to drop to around 83%, and the production ratio of standard grade drawstring dropped to around 24% [1] - At the beginning of the month, petrochemical inventory accumulated significantly, and currently it is at a moderately high level compared to the same period in recent years [1][4] - In terms of cost, the market has digested the news of Russian oil sanctions, the meeting between Chinese and US leaders was in line with market expectations, OPEC + decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December but suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year, and crude oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range [1] - In terms of supply, PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical with a new production capacity of 400,000 tons per year was put into operation in mid - October, and the number of maintenance devices has increased recently [1] Futures and Spot Market - In the futures market, the PP2601 contract decreased in price with increasing positions, closing at 6464 yuan/ton, up 0.19%. The position increased by 2552 lots to 655,336 lots [2] - In the spot market, PP spot prices in different regions showed mixed trends, with drawstring priced at 6260 - 6570 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, on November 7, maintenance devices such as the new second line of CNOOC Daxie restarted, and the PP enterprise开工率 rose to around 83.5%, at a moderately low level [4] - On the demand side, as of the week of November 7, the PP downstream开工率 increased by 0.52 percentage points to 53.14% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years [4] - On Tuesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 710,000 tons week - on - week, 10,000 tons higher than the same period last year [4] - For raw material crude oil, the Brent crude oil 01 contract fluctuated around $64 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China decreased by $20 per ton to $710 per ton week - on - week [4]
塑料日报:震荡运行-20251107
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 11:16
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - It is expected that plastics will continue to show a weak and volatile trend in the near future. The supply has increased due to new capacity and rising plastic operating rates, while the downstream demand has declined as the off - peak season for packaging films and the less - than - expected peak season for agricultural films have led to reduced downstream operating rates and weak purchasing willingness. Also, the macro - policy of anti - involution and old device elimination to address over - capacity will impact subsequent market trends [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - On November 7, the number of maintenance devices changed little, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 89.5%, at a neutral level. The PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.52 percentage points to 44.85% on a month - on - month basis. Although the agricultural film is in the peak season with increasing orders and stable raw material inventory, the packaging film orders decreased slightly, and the overall PE downstream operating rate is at a relatively low level in recent years. The petrochemical inventory is currently at a neutral level in recent years. The crude oil price fluctuated narrowly. New capacity came on - stream, and the plastic operating rate increased. The downstream purchasing willingness was insufficient, and traders were cautious about the future market [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The plastic 2601 contract increased in position and fluctuated. It closed at 6802 yuan/ton, with a low of 6791 yuan/ton and a high of 6835 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, and a gain of 0.27%. The position increased by 7205 lots to 585377 lots [2] - **Spot**: Most PE spot markets declined, with price changes ranging from - 50 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6740 - 7270 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8870 - 9730 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7020 - 7990 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On November 7, the number of maintenance devices changed little, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 89.5%, at a neutral level [1][4] - **Demand**: As of the week of November 7, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.52 percentage points to 44.85% on a month - on - month basis. The agricultural film was in the peak season, but the overall PE downstream operating rate was at a relatively low level in recent years [1][4] - **Inventory**: On Friday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 2.5 tons to 66.5 tons, 1 ton higher than the same period last year, and currently at a neutral level in recent years [4] - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 01 contract fell to 64 dollars/barrel, the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at 730 dollars/ton on a month - on - month basis, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at 740 dollars/ton on a month - on - month basis [4]
塑料日报:震荡下行-20251105
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 09:37
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The report predicts that plastics will likely experience weak and volatile trends in the near term. The increase in plastic production due to the restart of maintenance - related devices and new capacity, combined with the lackluster downstream demand and inventory at a neutral level, as well as the fluctuating cost of crude oil, contribute to this outlook. The absence of practical anti - involution policies also affects the market trend [1]. 3) Summary According to the Catalog **行情分析** - On November 5, the restart of maintenance devices such as Zhenhai Refining & Chemical's HDPE 3 - line increased the plastic operating rate to about 89.5%, which is at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.38 percentage points to 45.37%. Although the agricultural film is in the peak season, the overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. The petrochemical inventory is currently at a neutral level compared to the same period in previous years. The crude oil price fluctuates slightly, and new plastic production capacity has been added. The downstream procurement willingness is insufficient, and there are no practical anti - involution policies. [1] **期现行情** - **Futures**: The plastic 2601 contract showed an increasing - position and volatile operation, closing at 6814 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.97%. The trading volume increased by 20,008 lots to 553,147 lots [2]. - **Spot**: Most PE spot markets declined, with price changes ranging from - 100 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6790 - 7370 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8970 - 9780 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7060 - 8090 yuan/ton [3]. **基本面跟踪** - **Supply**: On November 5, the restart of maintenance devices increased the plastic operating rate to about 89.5% [4]. - **Demand**: As of the week ending October 31, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.38 percentage points to 45.37%. The agricultural film is in the peak season, but the overall downstream operating rate of PE is at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years [4]. - **Inventory**: On Wednesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 25,000 tons to 710,000 tons, 30,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Currently, the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level compared to the same period in previous years [4]. - **Raw Material**: Brent crude oil's 01 contract fluctuated around $65/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained unchanged at $730/ton, and that of Southeast Asian ethylene remained unchanged at $740/ton [4].
塑料日报:震荡运行-20251104
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-11-04 11:25
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report predicts that plastics will continue to oscillate weakly in the near term. Currently, the plastics industry has not seen the implementation of actual anti - involution policies, and the anti - involution and elimination of old devices, which aim to solve the problem of petrochemical over - capacity, are still macro - policies that will affect future market trends. Although the agricultural film is in the peak season and demand is expected to increase, the current peak season is under - performing, and downstream enterprises' purchasing willingness is insufficient [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - On November 4th, the number of overhauled devices changed little, and the plastics operating rate remained at around 89%, at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.38 percentage points to 45.37% on a month - on - month basis. The agricultural film is in the peak season, with orders and raw material inventories increasing to a neutral level in recent years, but packaging film orders have slightly decreased, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years. Petrochemical inventory is currently at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years. The crude oil price is fluctuating slightly. New production capacities have been put into operation, and the plastics operating rate has increased [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The plastics 2601 contract increased in positions and oscillated. The lowest price was 6,852 yuan/ton, the highest was 6,912 yuan/ton, and it closed at 6,879 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.48%. The position volume increased by 554 lots to 533,139 lots [2]. - **Spot**: Most prices in the PE spot market declined, with price changes ranging from - 50 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,840 - 7,370 yuan/ton, LDPE at 9,000 - 9,780 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7,070 - 8,090 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On November 4th, the number of overhauled devices changed little, and the plastics operating rate remained at around 89%, at a neutral level [4]. - **Demand**: As of the week ending October 31st, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.38 percentage points to 45.37% on a month - on - month basis. The agricultural film is in the peak season, but the overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years [4]. - **Inventory**: On Tuesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 25,000 tons to 735,000 tons, 25,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Currently, petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level compared to the same period in recent years [4]. - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 01 contract oscillated around $65 per barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $730 per ton on a month - on - month basis, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $740 per ton on a month - on - month basis [4].
塑料日报:震荡下行-20251031
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 12:20
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoint of the Report - The plastic industry is expected to remain in a weak and volatile state. Although the cost increase and macro - warming have pushed the plastic price to rebound, the plastic itself lacks upward momentum. The anti - involution policy has not been implemented, and the current peak season is not as good as expected, with weak downstream purchasing willingness [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On October 31, the restart of overhauled devices such as Lianyungang Petrochemical's HDPE Phase I increased the plastic operating rate to around 85%, which is at a neutral level. The PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.38 percentage points to 45.37%. The agricultural film is in the peak season, but the packaging film orders decreased slightly. The overall PE downstream operating rate is at a relatively low level in recent years. The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level, and the destocking has accelerated slightly at the end of the month. The cost of crude oil is oscillating. New production capacities have been put into trial operation or production. Although the demand for agricultural film is expected to increase, the current peak season is not satisfactory, and the downstream purchasing willingness is weak [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The plastic 2601 contract decreased by 1.41% to close at 6899 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average. The trading volume increased by 15,690 lots to 524,390 lots [2] - **Spot**: The PE spot market mostly declined, with the price range from - 50 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6890 - 7370 yuan/ton, LDPE at 9050 - 9880 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7160 - 8090 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On October 31, the restart of overhauled devices increased the plastic operating rate to around 85%, which is at a neutral level [4] - **Demand**: As of the week of October 31, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.38 percentage points to 45.37%. The agricultural film is in the peak season, but the overall PE downstream operating rate is at a relatively low level in recent years [4] - **Inventory**: The petrochemical early - morning inventory on Friday decreased by 20,000 tons to 675,000 tons, 45,000 tons lower than the same period last year. The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level [4] - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 01 contract dropped to $64/barrel, and the ethylene prices in Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia remained flat at $755/ton and $765/ton respectively [4]
PP日报:震荡下行-20251031
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 12:20
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - PP downstream demand is in the off - season, and the market lacks large - scale centralized procurement. Although cost increases and macro - warming have promoted a short - term rebound in PP, its upward momentum is insufficient, and it is expected to show a weak and volatile trend [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.24 percentage points to 52.61% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. However, the plastic weaving operating rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 44.2% week - on - week, with slightly fewer orders and slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - On October 31st, new maintenance devices were added, causing the PP enterprise operating rate to drop to around 80%, a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring dropped to around 29% [1][4] - Near the end of the month, petrochemical inventory reduction accelerated slightly, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [1][4] - In terms of cost, the market digested the news of Russian oil sanctions. OPEC + eight countries may further increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December. The meeting between Chinese and US leaders basically met market expectations, and the relationship between the two countries did not change fundamentally. Crude oil prices fluctuated [1] - In terms of supply, a new production capacity of 400,000 tons per year from PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October, and the number of maintenance devices increased recently [1] - The weather has improved, and downstream industries are gradually entering the peak season. Although most PP downstream industries are expected to continue to rise, the peak - season demand is currently lower than expected, and there is a lack of large - scale centralized procurement in the market. The stocking demand after the National Day has weakened, and traders generally offer discounts to stimulate transactions [1] - There is no actual anti - involution policy in the PP industry yet. Anti - involution and the elimination of old devices to solve the problem of petrochemical over - capacity are still macro - policies that will affect future market trends [1] Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The PP2601 contract increased in positions and fluctuated downward, with a minimum price of 6,582 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,669 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,590 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 1.21%. The position increased by 11,355 lots to 624,690 lots [2] - Spot: Most PP spot prices in various regions declined. The drawstring was quoted at 6,390 - 6,670 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On October 31st, new maintenance devices were added, causing the PP enterprise operating rate to drop to around 80%, a moderately low level [1][4] - Demand: As of the week of October 31st, the PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.24 percentage points to 52.61% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. However, the plastic weaving operating rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 44.2% week - on - week, with slightly fewer orders and slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - Inventory: Petrochemical inventory in the early morning of Friday decreased by 20,000 tons to 675,000 tons week - on - week, 45,000 tons lower than the same period last year. Near the end of the month, petrochemical inventory reduction accelerated slightly, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [4] Raw Material End - Brent crude oil contract 01 dropped to $64 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $745 per ton week - on - week [5]
每日核心期货品种分析-20251031
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 12:18
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - As of the close on October 31, most domestic futures main contracts declined, with polysilicon and precious metals rising, and lithium carbonate and some industrial products falling. The capital flow shows significant inflows into polysilicon and soybean meal, and large outflows from copper and gold futures. Different varieties have different market conditions due to factors such as supply - demand, cost, and macro - policies [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Performance and Market Overview - As of October 31, domestic futures main contracts mostly fell. Polysilicon rose over 2%, and silver, soybean meal, and gold futures rose over 1%. Lithium carbonate fell over 3%, and many other commodities like 20 - rubber and methanol fell over 2%. In stock index futures, IF, IH, and IC declined, while IM rose slightly. In bond futures, 2 - year and 5 - year contracts fell slightly, and 10 - year and 30 - year contracts rose [6][7]. - In terms of capital flow, polysilicon 2601, soybean meal 2601, and PVC2601 had capital inflows, while copper 2512, gold 2512, and CSI 1000 2512 had large outflows [7]. 3.2 Market Analysis of Specific Varieties - **Copper**: The Fed's reduced probability of a December rate cut and a stronger dollar suppress copper prices. Although the supply of copper concentrates is tight due to overseas mine accidents, high copper prices have curbed downstream demand. In the long - term, copper prices remain strong due to tight supply - demand [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate decreased during the day. The cost of lithium ore supports the price, and both supply and demand are strong. However, today's market was affected by news, and attention should be paid to the authenticity of the news [11]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC + plans to increase production, the demand peak season has ended, and the market is worried about demand. Although the US sanctions on Russian oil companies may limit exports, the overall supply is still in excess, and the price is expected to fluctuate [12][14]. - **Asphalt**: The supply is expected to decrease in November. The downstream demand has increased, and the inventory is at a low level. Considering the impact of crude oil price fluctuations, it is recommended to observe the asphalt futures price cautiously [15]. - **PP**: The downstream and enterprise operating rates are at a low level. The cost is affected by crude oil, and the demand is less than expected. PP is expected to fluctuate weakly [16][17]. - **Plastic**: The operating rate has increased slightly, and the downstream demand is in the peak season but less than expected. The cost is affected by crude oil, and plastic is expected to fluctuate weakly [18]. - **PVC**: The supply and downstream operating rates have increased. Exports are expected to weaken, and the inventory is still high. The real - estate market is still adjusting, and PVC is expected to fluctuate [20]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply is tight, and the inventory is being transferred downward. Although the downstream demand has decreased, the winter - storage demand will be released, and coking coal remains strong [21][22]. - **Urea**: The supply is high, and the cost is supported by coal prices. The demand has improved slightly, but the supply - demand pattern is still loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate narrowly [23].
PP日报:高开后震荡下行-20251024
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-10-24 10:23
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The recent cost increase has driven the rebound of PP, but PP itself lacks upward momentum, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - PP downstream operating rate increased by 0.52 percentage points to 52.37% week-on-week, remaining at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving increased by 0.14 percentage points to 44.4% week-on-week, with a slight increase in orders, slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - On October 24th, there were few changes in maintenance devices, and the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 80%, at a moderately low level. The production ratio of standard-grade drawstring dropped to around 24% [1][4] - The inventory accumulation during the National Day this year was similar to previous years, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [1][4] - Cost-wise, the crude oil price has rebounded significantly from a low level. The recent cost increase has driven the rebound of PP, but PP itself lacks upward momentum [1] - The demand in the peak season is lower than expected, and the post - National Day stocking demand has weakened. Traders generally offer discounts to stimulate sales. Concerns about economic growth have intensified, and there are no actual anti - involution policies in the PP industry [1] Group 2: Futures and Spot Market Futures - The PP2601 contract opened higher, then reduced positions and oscillated downward, closing at 6662 yuan/ton with a 0.00% increase. The position volume decreased by 10384 lots to 608100 lots [2] Spot - The spot prices of PP in most regions are stable. The drawstring is quoted at 6390 - 6630 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Fundamental Tracking Supply - On October 24th, there were few changes in maintenance devices, and the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 80%, at a moderately low level [1][4] Demand - As of the week of October 24th, the downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.52 percentage points to 52.37% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of plastic weaving increased by 0.14 percentage points to 44.4% week - on - week, with a slight increase in orders, slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] Inventory - The petrochemical inventory increased by 270,000 tons during the National Day holiday and decreased by 40,000 tons to 720,000 tons on Friday, 5,000 tons lower than the same period last year. The current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [4] Raw Materials - The Brent crude oil 01 contract rose to $65 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $760 per ton [5]
塑料日报:高开后震荡下行-20251024
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-10-24 10:22
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The recent cost increase has driven the rebound of plastics, but the plastics themselves lack upward momentum. It is expected that plastics will mainly fluctuate weakly [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - On October 24, the number of maintenance devices changed little, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 86.5%, which is currently at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.83 percentage points to 45.75% month - on - month. The agricultural film has entered the peak season, but the peak season is not as good as expected. After the National Day, the stocking demand weakened periodically, and downstream enterprises were not willing to purchase. The cost of crude oil has rebounded significantly at a low level, and new production capacity has been put into operation. There is no actual anti - involution policy in the plastics industry, which will affect the subsequent market [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions 3.2.1 Futures - The plastic 2601 contract opened higher, then reduced positions and oscillated downward. The lowest price was 6957 yuan/ton, the highest price was 7017 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6969 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.07%. The open interest decreased by 2302 lots to 529187 lots [2] 3.2.2 Spot - The PE spot market showed mixed trends, with price changes ranging from - 50 to + 50 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6910 - 7470 yuan/ton, LDPE at 9070 - 9930 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7260 - 8090 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On October 24, the number of maintenance devices changed little, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 86.5%, at a neutral level [4] - Demand: As of the week of October 24, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.83 percentage points to 45.75% month - on - month. The agricultural film has entered the peak season, and orders and raw material inventories have increased, but are still lower than in previous years. Packaging film orders have increased slightly, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [4] - Inventory: During the National Day holiday, the petrochemical inventory increased by 270,000 tons month - on - month. On Friday, it decreased by 40,000 tons to 720,000 tons, 5,000 tons lower than the same period last year. The inventory accumulation during the National Day this year was similar to previous years, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [4] - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 01 contract rose to $65/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $770/ton month - on - month, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $780/ton month - on - month [4]