Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - PTA prices rebounded slightly as crude oil prices recovered. The PTA supply side contracted due to low processing fees, and the polyester industry's profit was affected by over - capacity. However, the upward trend of crude oil prices supported PTA. The downstream polyester load remained above 87%, and the demand was slightly better than expected. The market is concerned about the impact of Sino - US negotiations on textile and clothing demand, and sanctions on some domestic refineries may affect PX supply [2]. - The inventory of ethylene glycol in East China ports remained low, and the arrival volume was limited. Overseas imports were expected to decline, but domestic plant production pressured the price. With the end of the polyester peak season and the downward trend of the crude oil fundamentals, polyester is expected to operate weakly [2]. 3) Summary Based on Related Catalogs a. Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price rose from 459.7 yuan/barrel on October 23, 2025, to 464.9 yuan/barrel on October 24, 2025, an increase of 5.2 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PTA**: The PTA - SC spread decreased by 27.79 yuan/ton, the PTA/SC ratio decreased by 0.0121. The PTA主力期价 rose by 10 yuan/ton, the spot price rose by 25 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee decreased by 7 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee decreased by 12 yuan/ton. The PTA仓单数量 remained unchanged [2]. - **PX**: CFR China PX price increased by 4, and the PX - naphtha spread decreased by 26 [2]. - **MEG**: The MEG主力期价 decreased by 18 yuan/ton, the MEG - naphtha spread decreased by 1.2 yuan/ton, and the MEG inner - market price increased by 14 yuan/ton [2]. - **Polyester Products**: POY150D/48F price increased by 40 yuan/ton, FDY150D/96F price increased by 35 yuan/ton, DTY150D/48F price decreased by 15 yuan/ton. 1.4D straight - spun polyester staple fiber price increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the semi - gloss chip price remained unchanged [2]. b. Industry Chain Operating Conditions - **PX**: The PX operating rate remained at 84.62% [2]. - **PTA**: The PTA operating rate increased from 76.95% to 79.46%, an increase of 2.51% [2]. - **MEG**: The MEG operating rate remained at 61.89% [2]. - **Polyester**: The polyester load remained at 89.38% [2]. c. Product Cash Flow and Sales - **Polyester Filament**: POY cash flow increased by 14, FDY cash flow increased by 9, DTY cash flow decreased by 41, and the filament sales rate remained at 101% [2]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: The polyester staple fiber cash flow decreased by 16, and the short - fiber sales rate remained at 68% [2]. - **Polyester Chip**: The chip cash flow decreased by 26, and the chip sales rate remained at 54% [2]. d. Device Maintenance An East China 2.2 - million - ton PTA device slightly reduced its load, and the recovery time is to be tracked [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX: Last week, PXN was slightly compressed. Due to weak fundamentals and limited by PTA processing fees, the overall valuation was difficult to expand. The price rose passively following crude oil. Currently, PX load remains high, with many PTA downstream overhauls and a low overall load center. The expectation of new PTA device production suppresses PTA processing fees, making it difficult to continuously reduce PX inventory. There is currently no driving force, and PXN is difficult to expand actively due to PTA processing fees. The valuation is at a neutral level, mainly following crude oil fluctuations. There is a risk of negative feedback under the reality of low PTA processing fees. Short - term observation is recommended [11]. - PTA: Last week, PTA processing fees continued to be compressed in a weak pattern. Even though terminal data improved significantly, it was essentially due to the difficult - to - relieve pressure expectation on the supply side. Therefore, this week's rebound was mainly a passive rebound following costs. In the future, the short - term supply - side overhaul volume will decrease, turning to slight inventory accumulation. Due to the weak long - term pattern expectation, processing fees are difficult to expand. On the demand side, the inventory and profit pressure of polyester chemical fibers are low, and the load is expected to remain high. However, due to inventory pressure and the off - season of downstream bottle chips, the bottle chip load is difficult to increase, and the probability of further boosting the polyester load is small. The improved terminal data is difficult to be reflected in the already high polyester chemical fiber load. In terms of valuation, PXN is continuously suppressed by continuous PTA overhauls under low processing fees. There is even a risk of negative feedback under the reality of low PTA processing fees. Short - term observation is recommended [12]. - MEG: In terms of industrial fundamentals, the load of domestic and overseas devices is at a high level, the domestic supply is high, and the import volume has rebounded, with ports turning to inventory accumulation. In the medium term, as imports arrive in a concentrated manner and the domestic load is expected to remain high, coupled with the gradual commissioning of new devices, inventory accumulation is expected to continue in the fourth quarter. The current valuation is still relatively high compared to the same period, and there is pressure for continuous compression in the weak pattern. It is recommended to short on rallies [13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **PX** - **Price performance**: Last week, it rebounded significantly. The 01 contract rose 230 yuan in a single week, reporting 6522 yuan. The spot - end CFR China rose 32 dollars, reporting 815 dollars. The spot - converted basis rose 30 yuan, reaching 141 yuan as of October 24. The 1 - 3 spread rose 2 yuan, reaching - 8 yuan as of October 24 [11]. - **Supply side**: Last week, the Chinese load was 85.9%, a 1% increase month - on - month; the Asian load was 78.5%, a 0.5% increase month - on - month. In terms of devices, there were few overall changes in China. Overseas, a 540,000 - ton device of Thailand's PTTG was under overhaul, and the Saudi overhaul was postponed. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 256,000 tons of PX to China in the first and middle ten - days of October, a year - on - year increase of 19,000 tons. Overall, the subsequent domestic overhaul volume is still small, and the load remains high [11]. - **Demand side**: The PTA load was 78.8%, a 2.8% increase month - on - month. In terms of devices, Yisheng Ningbo slightly reduced its load, and the load of individual devices recovered. The PTA overhaul volume in October decreased slightly, and the overall load was low under low processing fees [11]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory at the end of August was 3.918 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 19,000 tons. According to the balance sheet, there was a slight inventory increase in September. Due to the slight decrease in PTA overhaul volume in October, a slight inventory reduction is expected [11]. - **Valuation cost side**: As of October 23, last week's PXN was 239 dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1 dollar; the naphtha spread decreased by 9 dollars, reaching 90 dollars as of October 23, and crude oil rebounded significantly. In terms of aromatic hydrocarbon blending for oil, last week, the US gasoline spread remained stable, the Asian gasoline spread was relatively strong, the US - South Korea aromatic hydrocarbon spread increased, and the relative value of blending for oil increased [11]. - **PTA** - **Price performance**: Last week, it rebounded significantly. The 01 contract rose 116 yuan in a single week, reporting 4518 yuan. The spot - end East China price rose 110 yuan, reporting 4450 yuan. The spot basis rose 2 yuan, reaching - 83 yuan as of October 24. The 1 - 5 spread decreased by 8 yuan, reaching - 66 yuan as of October 24 [12]. - **Supply side**: The PTA load was 78.8%, a 2.8% increase month - on - month. In terms of devices, Yisheng Ningbo slightly reduced its load, and the load of individual devices recovered. The PTA overhaul volume in October decreased slightly, and the overall load was low under low processing fees [12]. - **Demand side**: Last week, the polyester load was 91.4%, remaining flat month - on - month. Among them, the filament load was 92.4%, a 0.4% decrease month - on - month; the staple fiber load was 94.3%, remaining flat month - on - month; the bottle chip load was 73.2%, a 0.8% increase month - on - month. In terms of devices, there were few overall changes. In terms of polyester, profits improved, and short - term inventory pressure decreased significantly. The load is expected to remain high; bottle chips are restricted by inventory pressure and the downstream off - season, and the load will remain stable in the short term. At the terminal, finished product inventory decreased, orders increased, the texturing load was 84%, a 4% increase month - on - month; the loom load was 75%, a 6% increase month - on - month; the polyester yarn load was 66%, remaining flat month - on - month. In September, domestic textile and clothing retail sales increased by 4.7% year - on - year, and exports decreased by 8.3% year - on - year [12]. - **Inventory**: As of October 17, the overall PTA social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 2.176 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,000 tons, with a slight inventory increase. The downstream load remains high, but the PTA overhaul volume in October has decreased slightly, and slight inventory accumulation is expected [12]. - **Profit side**: Last week, the spot processing fee decreased by 60 yuan, reaching 79 yuan/ton as of October 24; the disk processing fee decreased by 35 yuan, reaching 240 yuan/ton as of October 24 [12]. - **MEG** - **Price performance**: Last week, it rebounded significantly. The 01 contract rose 74 yuan in a single week, reporting 4077 yuan. The spot - end East China price rose 72 yuan, reporting 4187 yuan. The basis rose 19 yuan, reaching 93 yuan as of October 24. The 1 - 5 spread rose 6 yuan, reaching - 76 yuan as of October 24 [13]. - **Supply side**: Last week, the EG load was 73.3%, a 3.7% decrease month - on - month. Among them, the synthetic gas - based load was 82.2%, a 0.8% increase month - on - month; the ethylene - based load was 68.2%, a 6.3% decrease month - on - month. In terms of synthetic gas - based devices, there were few device changes; in terms of petrochemicals, Fulein and Shenghong were under overhaul, CNOOC Shell restarted, and Sinopec Zhongke Refining had a short - term shutdown; overseas, Shell in the United States restarted. Overall, there are few subsequent overhaul devices, the load will remain high, and there is pressure for further increase. In terms of arrivals, last week's arrival forecast was 53,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 49,000 tons. In September, imports were 620,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 tons [13]. - **Demand side**: Last week, the polyester load was 91.4%, remaining flat month - on - month. Among them, the filament load was 92.4%, a 0.4% decrease month - on - month; the staple fiber load was 94.3%, remaining flat month - on - month; the bottle chip load was 73.2%, a 0.8% increase month - on - month. In terms of devices, there were few overall changes. In terms of polyester, profits improved, and short - term inventory pressure decreased significantly. The load is expected to remain high; bottle chips are restricted by inventory pressure and the downstream off - season, and the load will remain stable in the short term. At the terminal, finished product inventory decreased, orders increased, the texturing load was 84%, a 4% increase month - on - month; the loom load was 75%, a 6% increase month - on - month; the polyester yarn load was 66%, remaining flat month - on - month. In September, domestic textile and clothing retail sales increased by 4.7% year - on - year, and exports decreased by 8.3% year - on - year [13]. - **Inventory**: As of October 20, the port inventory was 579,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 38,000 tons; the downstream factory inventory days were 13.4 days, a 0.2 - day increase month - on - month. In the short term, the arrival volume was moderately low last week, the departure volume increased, and the port inventory is expected to decrease slightly. With a high domestic load and an increase in overseas arrivals, ethylene glycol has entered an inventory accumulation cycle [13]. - **Valuation cost side**: The naphtha - based profit decreased by 123 yuan to - 611 yuan/ton, the domestic ethylene - based profit increased by 80 yuan to - 646 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit decreased by 475 yuan to 253 yuan/ton. The cost of ethylene was 780 dollars/ton, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines was 660 yuan/ton. The cost of coal rebounded, and ethylene prices fell. Currently, the overall valuation is relatively high [13]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - **PX**: The basis strengthened, and the monthly spread fluctuated weakly [32]. - **PTA**: The basis was at a low level, and the monthly spread weakened. The trading volume and open interest were at low levels [44][47]. - **MEG**: The basis strengthened, and the monthly spread was weak. The trading volume and open interest were at low levels [56][63]. 3.3. PX Fundamentals - **Capacity and load**: In 2025, Yantai Yulongdao in Shandong is expected to add 3 million tons of new PX capacity in the second half of the year. Last week, the Chinese PX load was 85.9%, a 1% increase month - on - month; the Asian load was 78.5%, a 0.5% increase month - on - month [77][11]. - **Imports**: In September, the PX import volume remained stable [83]. - **Inventory**: In August, the inventory remained stable [91]. - **Cost - profit**: PXN contracted, the short - process spread increased, and the naphtha spread decreased [95]. - **Aromatic hydrocarbon blending for oil**: Asian gasoline performed strongly, the US - South Korea aromatic hydrocarbon spread increased, and the relative value of blending for oil increased [102][110][112]. 3.4. PTA Fundamentals - **Capacity and load**: In 2025, Honggang Petrochemical (Phase III), Hailun Petrochemical 3, and Dushan Energy 4 are expected to add new PTA capacities. Last week, the PTA load was 78.8%, a 2.8% increase month - on - month [134][12]. - **Exports**: Relevant data on PTA exports are provided, including exports to India, Turkey, and Vietnam [139]. - **Inventory**: The inventory remains at a low level [140]. - **Profit**: The spot and disk processing fees decreased last week [12]. 3.5. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) Fundamentals - **Capacity and load**: In 2025, Yulong Petrochemical 1 and Yichang (Kunpeng Phase I) are expected to add new MEG capacities. Last week, the EG load was 73.3%, a 3.7% decrease month - on - month. The synthetic gas - based device load was at a historical high [145][13][148]. - **Imports**: Data on MEG imports from Canada, Saudi Arabia, and the United States are provided [150]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased slightly this week, and the inventory of upstream and downstream factories increased [152]. - **Cost**: Coal prices rebounded, and ethylene was weak [162]. - **Profit**: The naphtha - based profit remained continuously high, and the coal - based profit was compressed [165]. 3.6. Polyester and Terminal - **Polyester** - **New device production**: There are new polyester filament and bottle chip devices going into production [180]. - **Basis**: The staple fiber basis strengthened, and the bottle chip basis fluctuated [184]. - **Supply**: The operating rate remained at a high level [187]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of polyester products such as filaments, staple fibers, and bottle chips is presented [193][195]. - **Profit**: The filament profit decreased [201]. - **Terminal** - **Textile enterprise orders and inventory**: Orders increased, inventory decreased, and raw material inventory preparation increased [207]. - **Textile and clothing and soft drinks**: Domestic textile and clothing consumption growth recovered, and exports were weak [212]. - **US clothing inventory**: The wholesale inventory is below the pre - pandemic high, and the inventory is increasing marginally [214].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2) Core Viewpoints - PTA: The game intensifies, with sentiment and fundamentals resonating. The PTA supply side is shrinking, and its processing fee remains low. Industry profits are still constrained by over - capacity due to new device launches. Although the polyester downstream load remains above 90%, there are concerns about subsequent textile and clothing demand after the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The PTA operating rate may decline further, and it's difficult for PTA to have an independent market due to crude oil price trends [2]. - Ethylene glycol: The inventory of ethylene glycol ports in East China is still at a low level, with limited port arrivals this week and expected decline in overseas imports. Domestic device launches are pressuring the price. Coal - based ethylene glycol devices are resuming. The overall polyester inventory is in good condition, and the downstream weaving load is maintained. However, as the polyester peak season is ending and the crude oil fundamentals are weakening, the polyester is expected to run weakly [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - **Crude oil and PTA - related**: INE crude rose from 447.2 yuan/barrel on October 22, 2025, to 459.7 yuan/barrel on October 23, 2025. The PTA - SC spread decreased from 1232.2 yuan/ton to 1167.3 yuan/ton, and the PTA/SC ratio dropped from 1.3791 to 1.3494. The PTA main contract futures price increased from 4482 yuan/ton to 4508 yuan/ton, and the PTA spot price rose from 4370 yuan/ton to 4425 yuan/ton [2]. - **PX**: CFR China PX increased from 798 to 811, and the PX - naphtha spread rose from 258 to 260 [2]. - **MEG**: The MEG main contract futures price increased from 4051 yuan/ton to 4095 yuan/ton. The MEG - naphtha spread increased from - 110.72 yuan/ton to - 104.91 yuan/ton, and the MEG domestic price rose from 4107 to 4173 [2]. Industry Chain Operating Conditions - The PX operating rate remained at 84.62%, the PTA operating rate was stable at 76.95%, the MEG operating rate decreased from 63.35% to 61.89%, and the polyester load remained at 89.38% [2]. Product Sales and Cash Flow - **Polyester filament**: POY150D/48F decreased from 6380 to 6360, and its cash flow dropped from 18 to - 71. FDY150D/96F increased from 6590 to 6620, and its cash flow decreased from - 272 to - 311. DTY150D/48F decreased from 7740 to 7735, and its cash flow dropped from 178 to 104. The filament sales rate increased from 53% to 101% [2]. - **Polyester staple fiber**: 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber increased from 6365 to 6390, and its cash flow decreased from 353 to 309. The staple fiber sales rate decreased from 107% to 68% [2]. - **Polyester chips**: The semi - bright chip price increased from 5485 to 5525, and its cash flow decreased from 23 to - 6. The chip sales rate decreased from 141% to 54% [2]. Device Maintenance An East - China 2.2 - million - ton PTA device slightly reduced its load, and the recovery time is to be tracked [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The polyester market is expected to continue its weak and volatile trend due to the weakening cost support and inventory pressure. The PX - PTA segment faces dual pressures from cost and demand, and the downstream products' price cuts for inventory reduction may further squeeze profit margins [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 PTA & PX - **Price**: On October 20, the PX main contract closed at 6,268.0 yuan/ton, down 0.38% from the previous trading day, with a basis of -37.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 4,384.0 yuan/ton, down 0.41%, with a basis of -44.0 yuan/ton. The Brent crude oil main contract closed at 61.34 US dollars/barrel, and WTI at 57.25 US dollars/barrel [2]. - **Supply**: The PX plant operating rate shows no obvious contraction signal, and with the expected new capacity, there is still incremental pressure on the supply side. The PTA plant maintenance is insufficient, the operating rate remains at a medium - high level, and the expected new plant commissioning will intensify the supply - loose pattern. The decline in the crude oil price center weakens the PX cost support, and the PX processing fee is expected to be compressed, which may force the PTA cost line to sink [2]. - **Demand**: The polyester factory operating rate is restricted by the weak terminal orders. The 15 - day average turnover of China Textile City decreased by 23.7% month - on - month, and the falsification of peak - season demand accelerates the negative feedback transmission in the industrial chain. The low sales rate of polyester filament suppresses the polyester operating elasticity, and the marginal driving force on the PTA demand side is further weakened [3]. - **Inventory**: The PTA factory inventory has exceeded the high point of the same period in the past three years, and the social inventory days have climbed to 7 - 8 days. The continuous weakening of the inter - month spread reflects the intensifying inventory - accumulation pressure. In the low - processing - fee environment, the factory's price - support ability is weakened, and the high inventory may force the plant to reduce production in advance, but the pattern of strong supply and weak demand is difficult to change in the short term [3]. 3.1.2 Polyester - **Price**: On October 20, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,028.0 yuan/ton, down 0.13% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,285.0 yuan/ton, down 5.0 yuan/ton, with a basis of 257.0 yuan/ton [4]. - **Demand**: The MA15 turnover of China Textile City decreased from 851.8 million meters on October 10 to 855.87 million meters on October 20, indicating weak terminal textile demand [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of polyester staple fiber (6.11 days), polyester filament DTY (31.5 days), and FDY (26.1 days) are all higher than the 5 - year average values (4.96/28.42/22.19 days). The inventory pressure of DTY is significant, and although the POY inventory (16.8 days) is lower than the average of 20.40 days, the de - stocking rhythm is blocked [4]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **PX**: The main contract price of PX futures decreased by 0.38%, the trading volume increased by 36.35%, and the open interest increased by 10.50%. The spot prices in China's main port CFR and South Korea FOB remained unchanged [5]. - **PTA**: The main contract price of PTA futures decreased by 0.41%, the trading volume increased by 14.03%, and the open interest increased by 4.00%. The spot price in China's main port CFR remained unchanged. The PTA 1 - 5, 5 - 9 spreads decreased, while the 9 - 1 spread increased. The import profit decreased slightly [5]. - **Short - fiber**: The main contract price of short - fiber futures decreased by 0.13%, the trading volume decreased by 7.67%, and the open interest decreased by 0.58%. The spot price in the East China market decreased slightly, and the PF 1 - 5, 9 - 1 spreads increased, while the 5 - 9 spread decreased [5]. - **Other products**: The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI, CFR Japan naphtha, ethylene glycol, polyester chips, and most polyester filaments remained unchanged, while the price of polyester bottle chips decreased by 0.27% [5]. - **Processing spreads**: The processing spreads of naphtha, PX, polyester chips, and most polyester filaments remained unchanged, while the PTA processing spread decreased by 1.26%, and the polyester bottle chip processing spread decreased by 6.36% [6]. - **Light - textile city turnover**: The total turnover on October 20 was 653 million meters, a month - on - month decrease of 25.03%. The turnover of long - fiber fabrics decreased by 19.48%, and that of short - fiber fabrics decreased by 42.79% [6]. - **Industrial chain load rate**: The operating rates of PTA factories, polyester factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms remained unchanged [6]. - **Inventory days**: The inventory days of polyester staple fiber decreased by 19.39%, while those of POY, FDY, and DTY increased by 23.53%, 8.30%, and 9.00% respectively [6]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1 Macroeconomic Dynamics - On October 20, Fed's Musalem said that if employment faces more risks and inflation is under control, he may support another interest - rate cut. The Israel - Hamas conflict continued with various statements and actions from both sides [7]. - On October 17, various Fed officials had different views on interest - rate cuts. The World Gold Council research head said the gold market was not saturated, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange called for risk control [7]. 3.3.2 Supply - Demand - Demand On October 20, the total turnover of China Textile City was 653.0 million meters, a month - on - month decrease of 25.03%, with 529.0 million meters of long - fiber fabric turnover and 123.0 million meters of short - fiber fabric turnover [9]. 3.4 Appendix - Analysis of Future Price Trends - **Supply side**: PX and PTA may have sufficient supply. The high operating rate of PX and PTA plants and the expected new capacity may lead to an oversupply situation. The decline in crude oil prices may reduce PX costs, but the impact on supply also depends on refineries' production willingness [36]. - **Demand side**: The turnover of China Textile City has declined, indicating weak polyester demand. The weak downstream demand may lead to a decline in polyester operating rates, which in turn suppresses PTA prices [37]. - **Inventory side**: The high PTA factory inventory indicates great inventory - accumulation pressure. The combination of high supply, weak demand, and high inventory may lead to further inventory accumulation and price suppression [37].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The polyester industry chain is operating weakly, and attention should be paid to macro - changes. The current situation is affected by the Sino - US trade war, and the meeting between the leaders of the two countries around the end of the month should be continuously monitored. The 4th Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will discuss the "15th Five - Year Plan" and economic work, which also needs attention [2]. - In terms of the cost side, there is a supply - surplus contradiction due to the slowdown in China's import demand after the National Day and the increase in US and Middle - East exports. The macro and fundamentals are in resonance, putting pressure on the fundamentals without a clear rebound driver [3]. - PX is under pressure due to the recovery of China's PX load to a relatively high level, few fourth - quarter maintenance plans, and capacity expansion of some devices. The downstream PTA plants have many maintenance plans, and the PX supply - demand support is limited [3]. - TA has a new device expected to be put into operation next month, with increasing inventory pressure after November. The cost - side support is weakening, and the demand is not strong during the peak season due to tariffs [3]. - The polyester start - up rate is 91.4% (down 0.1% month - on - month). After the National Day, the market calmed down, and filament inventory increased again. Terminal raw material procurement is mainly cautious. The weaving and texturing load decreased this week under high tariffs [4]. - PF has improved demand, with factory inventory reduced to a low level. The short - term supply - demand situation of direct - spun polyester staple fiber is better than that of the raw material end, and the processing fee is expected to be strong [4][5]. - PR's fundamentals have little change, with maintenance continuing but general demand. The spot processing fee of bottle chips is expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to raw material price fluctuations [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - The report includes figures such as the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [10][11][13]. Upstream Profit and Spread - Figures cover PX processing fee PXN (PX China CFR - naphtha Japan CFR), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [18][21]. International Spread and Import - Export Profit - It involves figures like the toluene US - Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [26][28]. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the operating rates of China, South Korea, and Taiwan's PTA, as well as China's and Asia's PX [29][32][34]. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - It includes figures of PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [37][40][41]. Downstream Polyester Load - Figures cover filament production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle chip load, filament factory inventory days, and the operating rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving, texturing, and dyeing [50][52][54]. PF Detailed Data - It includes figures of polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, difference between raw and recycled fibers, pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [71][82][86]. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures cover polyester bottle chip load, bottle chip factory bottle chip inventory days, bottle chip spot processing fee, bottle chip export processing fee, bottle chip export profit, difference between East China water bottle chips and recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips, bottle chip next - month spread, and bottle chip next - next - month spread [89][91][99].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly mention industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides trend forecasts and analysis for various energy - chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, etc., considering factors such as supply - demand, macro - environment, and cost [2][10][11]. - Different futures have different trends, such as some being in a short - term shock market, some trending weakly, and some having their far - month valuations suppressed [2][10][11]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **Market Conditions**: PX paper goods were slightly weak in the afternoon; PTA futures fluctuated downwards, and the spot market had general negotiation atmosphere; a 400,000 - ton/year MEG device in Guangdong restarted, while a 400,000 - ton/year device in Fujian stopped for maintenance [6]. - **Trend Intensity**: All three have a trend intensity of - 1, indicating a weak trend [9]. - **Views and Suggestions**: PX is in a short - term shock market, and PXN long positions are recommended. PTA demand is expected to improve marginally, and short positions should be reduced. MEG has a weak unilateral trend with sufficient domestic supply and increasing inventory [10][11]. Rubber - **Fundamental Data**: There were changes in futures prices, trading volume, open interest, etc. The inventory in Qingdao decreased, but downstream demand was flat, and the price was in a range - bound pattern [13][15]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [13]. Synthetic Rubber - **Fundamental Data**: There were changes in futures prices, trading volume, open interest, and prices of related products. The market had a weak trading atmosphere [16][17]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [18]. - **Market Outlook**: The fundamentals have pressure, but the valuation is moderately low. With many important macro - events, the price is expected to fluctuate [18]. Asphalt - **Fundamental Data**: There were changes in futures prices, trading volume, open interest, and spot prices. The refinery's start - up rate and inventory rate changed slightly [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [28]. - **Market News**: The domestic asphalt refinery's production in November is expected to decrease. The factory and social inventories decreased [30]. LLDPE - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices decreased, and there were changes in basis and spread. Spot prices remained stable [31]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a weak trend [33]. - **Market Analysis**: The market is affected by the trade war, with weak cost support, increasing supply pressure, and sluggish demand [31][32]. PP - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices decreased, and there were changes in basis and spread. Spot prices were weakly adjusted [35][36]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a weak trend [37]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by the trade war and falling oil prices, the supply is high, and the market is in a weak state [36]. Caustic Soda - **Fundamental Data**: Futures and spot prices are provided. The eastern part of Shandong had a price rebound, while the west and southwest had price cuts [39]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [42]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply pressure is not large in October, but the far - month valuation is suppressed by the expected alumina production cut [40]. Pulp - **Fundamental Data**: There were changes in futures prices, trading volume, open interest, etc. The spot market was stable, and the supply was loose while demand was weak [44][45]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [44]. Glass - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices decreased, and there were changes in basis and spread. Spot prices were adjusted downwards [48]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a weak trend [48]. - **Market News**: The domestic float glass market price was adjusted downwards, and the trading atmosphere was general [48]. Methanol - **Fundamental Data**: There were changes in futures prices, trading volume, open interest, and spot prices. The port inventory decreased, but some regions had inventory accumulation [51][53]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a weak trend [54]. - **Market Outlook**: The fundamentals have great pressure, but the valuation is moderately low. With many macro - events, the price is expected to fluctuate [53]. Urea - **Fundamental Data**: There were changes in futures prices, trading volume, open interest, etc. The enterprise inventory increased [56][57]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a weak trend [58]. - **Market Outlook**: The fundamentals have large pressure, and the valuation is high. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and trend weakly in the medium - term [57][58]. Styrene - **Fundamental Data**: There were changes in futures prices and spreads [59]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral trend [59]. - **Spot News**: Short - sellers have a need to stop losses. The port inventory is expected to change from accumulation to depletion, and the market focuses on cost contradictions [60]. Soda Ash - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices remained unchanged, and there were changes in basis and spread. Spot prices were stable [62]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a weak trend [63]. - **Market News**: The domestic soda ash market was stable, with high supply and general procurement sentiment from the glass industry [63]. LPG, Propylene - **Fundamental Data**: There were changes in futures prices, trading volume, open interest, and spreads. The PDH, MTBE, and alkylation start - up rates decreased [65]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral trend [68]. - **Market News**: There are PDH and LPG plant maintenance plans [69][70]. PVC - **Fundamental Data**: Futures and spot prices are provided, and the basis and spread are given. The production is expected to increase [72]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a weak trend [73]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by the trade war and cost decline, PVC is in a negative feedback state with high supply and weak demand [72]. Fuel Oil, Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fundamental Data**: There were changes in futures prices, trading volume, open interest, and spot prices. The low - sulfur fuel oil was weaker than the high - sulfur fuel oil [75]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral trend [75]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - **Fundamental Data**: There were changes in futures prices, trading volume, open interest, and freight rates. The freight rates of European and US - West routes increased [77]. - **Trend Intensity**: The short - term trend is strong [77].

Report Investment Rating - PX: Short-term trading range, hold long PXN [8] - PTA: Short-term trading range, reduce short positions [9] - MEG: Hold 1-5 reverse spread [1] Core Viewpoints - PX is in a short-term trading range, with potential for PXN profit expansion due to factors like MX price changes, expected improvement in polyester consumption, and tight supply-demand. PTA's demand is expected to improve marginally, in a trading range, and short positions should be reduced. MEG's unilateral trend remains weak, with sufficient domestic supply and increasing inventory [8][9] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - PX paper futures were slightly weak in the afternoon, with no valuation for physical goods due to the Singapore holiday. PTA futures oscillated downward in the morning, with stable spot basis in the morning and weakening in the afternoon. A 400,000-ton/year MEG plant in Guangdong restarted, while a 400,000-ton/year MEG plant in Fujian began maintenance [4] Futures and Spot Data - PX主力昨日收盘价6268, down 24 (-0.38%); PTA主力4384, down 18 (-0.41%); MEG主力4003, unchanged; PF主力6028, down 8 (-0.13%); SC主力435.8, up 0.8 (0.18%). PX CFR China was 782.67 dollars/ton (-3.5), PTA in East China was 4325 yuan/ton (-15), MEG spot was 4094 (-2), etc [2] Trend Intensity - PX, PTA, and MEG all have a trend intensity of -1, indicating a bearish view [7] Supply and Demand Analysis - PX supply is tight with some domestic and Asian plants under maintenance, while PTA demand may improve with new device startups. MEG domestic supply is sufficient and inventory is accumulating [8][9] Polyester Market - A 250,000-ton polyester plant in Fujian plans to restart on October 25. Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester filament sales were average today (5 - 60% by 3:30 pm) and weak on the weekend (3 - 40% average). Direct-spun polyester staple fiber sales were okay today (77% average by 3:00 pm) [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA is expected to experience weak oscillations in the short - term due to macro - level disturbances, a slight increase in supply, mediocre demand during the traditional peak season, and a pessimistic long - term supply - demand outlook. The industry should continue the strategy of hedging at high prices and pay attention to unplanned production cuts or halts [6]. - Ethylene glycol (MEG) is likely to maintain a weak pattern in the short - term as there is a strong expectation of a weakening in supply - demand balance and inventory is accumulating at the main ports [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Upstream Analysis of the Industrial Chain - **Market Review**: International oil prices declined due to the International Energy Agency's warning of long - term supply surplus and trade disputes initiated by the US. PX prices dropped, but the decline was less than that of crude oil because of weak cost support and a low PX - naphtha spread. As of October 17, the Asian PX closing price was $783.17/ton CFR China, down $15/ton or 1.88% from October 10 [15]. - **PX Capacity Utilization**: The average weekly PX capacity utilization rate was 87.42%, a 0.81% decrease from the previous week. Urumqi Petrochemical's 1 million - ton device was under maintenance from October 14 for half a month, and Fujia Dahua's two 1.4 - million - ton devices continued to be under maintenance, with a planned restart in early November [20]. - **PX - Naphtha Spread**: As of October 17, the PX - naphtha spread reached $246.2/ton, up $24.75/ton from October 10. The spread continued to recover due to low processing fees, low production willingness of enterprises, and a short - term shortage of spot in November [23]. 2. PTA Fundamental Analysis - **Market Review**: PTA prices oscillated weakly. Although the supply was tightened by a planned production cut of a major producer in the Northeast, the price was dragged down by lower international oil prices due to tariff disputes and weak long - term industry expectations. As of October 17, the PTA spot price was 4340 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was 2601 - 83 [26]. - **PTA Capacity Utilization**: The average weekly PTA capacity utilization rate dropped to 75.56%, a 2.28% decrease from the previous week. Hengli Petrochemical carried out a planned production cut, while Yisheng New Materials increased its load during the week. In October, there are maintenance plans for Ineos and Hengli, and the restart time of Yisheng Dahua and Hainan is uncertain, so the monthly PTA output may increase significantly [29]. - **PTA Processing Fees**: PTA processing fees were under pressure as the international oil prices continued to decline due to the ongoing tariff disputes, and there was a lack of positive support in the industrial chain. Next week, with the planned restart of maintenance devices and little change in the polyester sector, the destocking rate in the balance sheet will narrow, and PTA processing fees may continue to be under pressure [31]. - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance**: In October, with insufficient PTA device maintenance and the restart of maintenance devices, and little change in demand, the PTA supply - demand is expected to be in a loose balance [34]. 3. MEG Fundamental Analysis - **Market Trend**: Ethylene glycol prices declined weakly under the double pressure of cost and supply - demand. Affected by the expectation of increased supply and the decline of international oil prices, upstream raw materials were in a downward trend. Although there was a rebound on Thursday due to the general rise of commodities, it continued to be weak on Friday due to the drag of crude oil. As of October 17, the closing price of ethylene glycol in Zhangjiagang was 4096 yuan/ton, and the delivered price in the South China market was 4230 yuan/ton [40]. - **MEG Capacity Utilization**: The total ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate was 69.05%, a 0.37% decrease from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate of integrated devices was 68.93%, a 1.07% decrease, while the coal - based ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate was 69.24%, a 0.75% increase. In October, the inventory accumulation at ports is limited due to cautious import expectations, but there is an obvious expectation of increased domestic production [44]. - **MEG Port Inventory**: As of October 22, 2025, the total expected arrival volume of ethylene glycol in East China was 893,000 tons. As of October 16, the total inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 493,000 tons, an increase of 14,200 tons from October 13 [46]. - **MEG Processing Profits**: The prices of ethylene glycol were weak, and the processing profits of various processes showed both increases and decreases. As of October 17, the profit of naphtha - based ethylene glycol production was - $108.89/ton, an increase of $17.29/ton from the previous week, while the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol production was - 470.2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 181.7 yuan/ton from the previous week [51]. 4. Downstream Demand Analysis of the Industrial Chain - **Polyester Device Load**: The polyester devices had no clear changes. The average weekly polyester capacity utilization rate was 87.78%, a 0.02% decrease from the previous week. Next week, the polyester load is expected to gradually increase as previously commissioned devices and long - shut - down devices restart, and new devices are planned to be commissioned [54]. - **Polyester Capacity Utilization Outlook**: In September, the average monthly polyester capacity utilization rate was 87.59%, a 1.12% increase from the previous month. After successful destocking before the festival, the polyester inventory in October is under little pressure, and the monthly polyester load is expected to remain stable [55]. - **Capacity Utilization of Polyester Products**: The average weekly capacity utilization rate of polyester filament was 91.06%, a 0.03% decrease from the previous period. The average capacity utilization rate of polyester staple fiber was 87.16%, unchanged from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate of fiber - grade polyester chips was 85.12%, a 0.39% decrease from the previous week [60]. - **Polyester Product Inventory**: Due to weak downstream purchasing enthusiasm, the finished - product inventory of polyester factories accumulated slightly during the week [63]. - **Polyester Product Cash Flow**: The polymerization cost decreased, and the price decline of polyester products was less than that of raw materials, so the cash flow of most models was restored [64]. - **Weaving Load**: As of October 16, the comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 64.06%, unchanged from the previous data. The average terminal weaving order days were 14.79 days, an increase of 0.50 days from the previous week. In mid - October, the weaving market orders were differentiated, and the order volume increased slightly compared with September, but the overall increase was not significant due to the temperature difference between the north and the south [69]. 5. Summary of the Polyester Industrial Chain Fundamentals - **Cost**: International oil prices declined. PX prices also dropped, but the decline was less than that of crude oil due to a low PX - naphtha spread [71]. - **Supply**: The average weekly PTA capacity utilization rate decreased, and the total ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate also declined slightly, with different trends in integrated and coal - based devices [71]. - **Demand**: The average weekly polyester capacity utilization rate decreased slightly, and the weaving operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions remained stable. The weaving orders increased slightly but were still affected by temperature differences [71]. - **Inventory**: PTA is expected to be tight in the near - term but face inventory accumulation in the long - term. The MEG inventory in the main ports of East China increased [71].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No explicit industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. However, trend intensities are given for each commodity: - **Neutral (0)**: PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, asphalt, paper pulp, methanol, LPG, propylene, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, urea [2][9][13] - **Weakly Bearish (-1)**: LLDPE, PP, glass,烧碱, PVC,纯碱 [36][40][51] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides short - term and medium - term outlooks for various energy and chemical commodities. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, inventory levels, macro - economic events, and trade relations. For most commodities, the market is influenced by a combination of fundamental factors and macro - level events, leading to a mix of trends including short - term oscillations and long - term bearish or bullish tendencies [9][20][56] 3. Summary by Commodity Aromatics and Polyester Chain - **PX**: Short - term range - bound market, long PXN. Supply is slightly tight due to planned and unexpected plant shutdowns. Demand may improve with the onset of cold weather and the start - up of new PTA plants [9] - **PTA**: Demand may improve marginally. It's a range - bound market for the single - side, and short positions should be reduced. Supply increases with new plant start - ups, and demand is affected by polyester consumption and trade relations [10] - **MEG**: Short positions below 4000 should be reduced. Domestic plant operating rates are rising, but some plants will undergo maintenance. Import and cost factors also impact the market [11] Rubber - **Natural Rubber**: Expected to trade sideways. Vietnam's rubber exports in September decreased due to weather and weak demand, but a slight increase is expected in October [13][16] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Likely to oscillate in the short term. There is fundamental pressure from high supply, but the valuation is moderately low, and macro - events may support the price [20] Asphalt - Follows crude oil and trades weakly with oscillations. Production decreased this week, and both factory and social inventories declined [21][33] Plastics - **LLDPE**: The trend is bearish. Market sentiment is weak, cost support from crude oil is reduced, and supply and inventory pressures are high [34][35] - **PP**: The trend remains bearish. Trade wars, falling oil prices, and high supply suppress the market price [38][39] - **PVC**: The trend is bearish. Trade wars, cost declines, and high supply and inventory levels create pressure on the market [71] Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: The far - month valuation is suppressed by alumina production cut expectations. Supply and demand are affected by alumina industry conditions and winter maintenance schedules [43] - **Methanol**: Expected to trade sideways. There is fundamental pressure from high supply and inventory, but the valuation is moderately low, and macro - events may support the price [56] - **Urea**: Short - term oscillations with a bearish medium - term trend. High social inventory, weak domestic demand, and uncertain export policies contribute to the situation [59][60] - **Soda Ash**: The spot market shows little change. Supply is high, and downstream demand is weak, leading to a short - term weak and oscillating market [61] - **LPG**: The futures valuation is being repaired, but macro - risks remain. PDH operating rates are decreasing [64] - **Propylene**: Supply and demand are relatively loose, and it trades weakly with oscillations in the short term [64] Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: There was a slight night - session rebound, but the short - term weakness persists. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Undergoes narrow - range adjustments, and the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market is temporarily stable [73] Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Spot prices show little change, and geopolitical issues are recurring. Freight rates are affected by various factors such as market supply and demand and exchange rates [75]

期 货 研 究 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日收盘价 | 6292 | 4402 | 4003 | 6036 | 435 | | 涨跌 | -84 | -54 | -86 | -56 | -10.9 | | 涨跌幅 | -1.32% | -1.21% | -2.10% | -0.92% | -2.44% | | 月差 | PX1-5 | PTA1-5 | MEG1-5 | PF12-1 | SC11-12 | | 昨日收盘价 | -28 | -58 | -82 | -12 | -2.4 | | 前日收盘价 | -38 | -56 | -79 | -14 | -2.1 | | 涨跌 | 10 | -2 | -3 | 2 | -0.3 | | 现货 | PX CFR 中国（美 | PTA 华东（元/吨） | MEG 现货 | 石脑油 MOPJ | Dated 布伦特 (美 | | ...