Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - PX is in a pre - holiday range - bound market with support at the bottom, and a backwardation spread strategy is recommended. PTA's downside space may be limited, and a short position is recommended when the processing fee is above 450. MEG has increasing inventory and large supply pressure, and a reverse basis and spread strategy is recommended [6][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - Yesterday's closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC were 7290, 5192, 3739, 6606, and 464.2 respectively. Their price changes were 28, 26, - 4, 28, and - 5.6, with percentage changes of 0.39%, 0.50%, - 0.11%, 0.43%, and - 1.19% respectively. The month - spreads of PX5 - 9, PTA5 - 9, MEG5 - 9, PF3 - 4, and SC2 - 3 were 16, 8, - 110, - 80, and 0.1 respectively [4] - Yesterday's spot prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent were 900.33 dollars/ton, 5108 yuan/ton, 3635 yuan/ton, 597.88 dollars/ton, and 72.11 dollars/barrel respectively. The price changes were 2.33, 18, 5, - 4.75, and 0.7 respectively [4] - Yesterday's spot processing fees of PX - naphtha spread, PTA processing fee, short - fiber processing fee, bottle - chip processing fee, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread were 294.05, 378.86, 71.28, 294.17, and - 4.34 respectively. The changes were 5.96, - 49.15, 29.19, 70.13, and 0 respectively [4] Fundamental Data - MEG: The inventory in some major ports in East China is about 93.5 tons, an increase of 3.8 tons from the previous period. From February 2nd to February 8th, the average daily shipment of a mainstream warehouse in Zhangjiagang was about 5400 tons, and that of two mainstream warehouses in Taicang was about 5500 - 6000 tons [5] - PX: The naphtha price was stalemate at the end of the session. A 4 - month Asian spot was traded at 902 dollars/ton, and PX closed at 900 dollars/ton CFR, a 2 - dollar increase from last Friday [5] Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of PX, PTA, and MEG are all 0, indicating a neutral trend [6] PX Analysis - PX is in a pre - holiday range - bound market with support at the bottom. The month - spread is in backwardation. In February, the supply - demand pattern of upstream products in the industrial chain is weakening. This week, the PX operating rate rose to 89.5% (+0.3%), and the Asian operating rate is 82.4% (+0.8%). The PTA operating rate remained at 77.6% (+1%). The PXN processing fee was compressed to 288 dollars/ton, and short PTA processing fees above 450 [6] PTA Analysis - PTA's downside space may be limited, and the month - spread is bearish. Short PTA processing fees above 450. In January, textile domestic sales ended, and foreign trade had orders. The polyester operating rate is expected to be 80.5% in February and 91% in March. The PTA operating rate remained at 77.6%. A 250 - ton device of Xin Fengming will be overhauled in February, and pay attention to the 5100 - yuan/ton support [7] MEG Analysis - MEG inventory continues to rise, and the supply pressure is large. Use a reverse basis and spread strategy. This week, the device operating rate rose to 76.22% (+1.85%). Many overseas devices will be overhauled in March, and the import volume is decreasing. However, due to the large - scale shutdown of polyester on the demand side, the inventory accumulation pressure in February is large, and the post - holiday inventory digestion is difficult [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX: Last month, PXN retraced due to lack of fundamental drivers and off - season pressure, while the sharp rise in crude oil compressed chemical valuations. Currently, PX load remains high, downstream PTA has many maintenance activities, and it is expected to maintain a stockpiling pattern before the maintenance season. The mid - term outlook is positive, and there are opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil [11]. - PTA: Last month, PTA processing fees fluctuated at a high level. Subsequently, the supply side will maintain high - level maintenance in the short term, and the demand side of polyester and chemical fiber will decline due to the off - season. PTA will enter the Spring Festival stockpiling stage. There is room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival, and mid - term opportunities to go long on dips should be grasped [12]. - MEG: Last month, there was a game between weak fundamentals and geopolitics. After a sharp rebound, it returned to weak - fundamental trading. Currently, the overall load is still high, and the port stockpiling pressure is large. There is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction in the mid - term. The valuation is currently at a relatively low level, and there is a risk of rebound [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation PX - **Market Review**: Prices rose and then fell last month. As of February 5, the closing price of the 03 contract was 7,098 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 70 yuan; the PX CFR price was 892 dollars, a year - on - year increase of 6 dollars. The basis was - 47 yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7 yuan; the 3 - 5 spread was - 102 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 60 yuan [11]. - **Supply**: At the end of the month, China's load was 89.5%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1%; Asia's load was 82.4%, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. In January and February, the maintenance volume was relatively small, and the load was expected to remain stable [11]. - **Demand**: At the end of the month, the PTA load was 77.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5%. In February, the maintenance volume was expected to be large, and the average load would remain stable [11]. - **Inventory**: At the end of December, the social inventory was 4.65 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 190,000 tons. According to the balance sheet, there will be a small amount of stockpiling from January to February [11]. - **Valuation and Cost**: Last month, PXN decreased by 42 dollars, and as of February 4, it was 304 dollars. The naphtha crack spread increased by 12 dollars, and as of February 4, it was 93 dollars [11]. PTA - **Market Review**: Prices rose and then fell last month. As of February 5, the closing price of the 05 contract was 5,144 yuan, a year - on - year increase of 58 yuan; the East China spot price was 5,100 yuan, a year - on - year increase of 30 yuan. The basis was - 77 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 28 yuan; the 5 - 9 spread was - 4 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 64 yuan [12]. - **Supply**: At the end of the month, the PTA load was 77.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5%. In February, the maintenance volume was expected to be large, and the average load would remain stable [12]. - **Demand**: At the end of the month, the polyester load was 79.3%, a year - on - year decrease of 11.5%. The terminal situation weakened, and it is expected to gradually recover around the Lantern Festival [12]. - **Inventory**: As of January 30, the total social inventory of PTA (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 2.116 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 61,000 tons. It is expected to maintain a stockpiling pattern [12]. - **Profit**: The spot processing fee increased by 180 yuan year - on - year, and as of December 30, it was 345 yuan/ton; the disk processing fee increased by 127 yuan, and as of December 30, it was 345 yuan/ton [12]. MEG - **Market Review**: Prices rebounded and then fell last month. As of February 5, the closing price of the 05 contract was 3,745 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 101 yuan; the East China spot price was 3,649 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 68 yuan. The basis was - 111 yuan, a year - on - year increase of 15 yuan; the 5 - 9 spread was - 112 yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 21 yuan [13]. - **Supply**: At the end of the month, the EG load was 76.2%, a month - on - month increase of 2.5%. The import volume in February is expected to decrease slightly [13]. - **Demand**: At the end of the month, the polyester load was 79.3%, a year - on - year decrease of 11.5%. The terminal situation weakened, and it is expected to gradually recover around the Lantern Festival [13]. - **Inventory**: As of February 2, the port inventory was 897,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 172,000 tons. Ports are expected to continue stockpiling [13]. - **Valuation and Cost**: Naphtha - based profit decreased by 419 yuan to - 1,175 yuan/ton, domestic ethylene - based profit increased by 190 to - 704 yuan/ton, and coal - based profit decreased by 87 yuan to 101 yuan/ton [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **PX**: The basis fluctuated weakly, and the spread was weak. The position was at a high level, and trading volume was strong [32][35]. - **PTA**: The position and trading volume increased [44]. - **MEG**: The basis was weak, and the spread fluctuated weakly. The position decreased [54][62]. 3.3 PX Fundamentals - **New Capacity**: Domestic new capacity includes Fuguidaohua (technical renovation) with 300,000 tons in early 2026, Huajin Aramco with 2 million tons in Q3 2026, and Yantai Yulongdao with 3 million tons from the end of 2026 to 2027. Overseas, IOC in India will add 800,000 tons in H2 2026 [75]. - **Supply**: The January start - up rate was at a historical high [79]. - **Import**: Imports increased significantly in December [83]. - **Inventory**: Inventory continued to accumulate in December [86]. - **Cost and Profit**: PXN retraced, short - process profits decreased, and the naphtha crack spread fluctuated [89]. - **Aromatic Hydrocarbon Blending for Oil**: Gasoline performance was weak, the octane value showed certain trends, the US - South Korea aromatic hydrocarbon spread was weak, and the relative value of blending for oil decreased [96][99][103][106]. 3.4 PTA Fundamentals - **New Capacity**: In 2025, there were new capacities such as Honggang Petrochemical (Phase III), Hailun Petrochemical 3, and Dushan Energy 4. In 2026, India Oil and GAIL will add new capacities [122]. - **Supply**: It has entered the stockpiling cycle [129]. - **Export**: There are data on exports to India, Turkey, and Vietnam [127]. - **Inventory**: It has entered the stockpiling cycle [129]. - **Profit**: There are data on spot and disk processing fees and acetic acid costs [132]. 3.5 MEG Fundamentals - **New Capacity**: In 2025, there were new capacities such as Zhengdakai Phase I, Yulong Petrochemical 1, and Yichang (Kunpeng Phase I). In 2026, BASF, Tianying, Huajin Aramco, and Zhongsha Gulei will add new capacities [135]. - **Supply**: The overall load remained at a high level [138]. - **Import**: Imports increased significantly in December [140]. - **Inventory**: Due to high imports and the downstream off - season, ports continued to stockpile [150]. - **Cost**: Coal prices fluctuated, ethylene prices were continuously weak, and ethane prices rose [157]. - **Profit**: The valuation was at a relatively low level [160]. 3.6 Polyester and Terminal - **Polyester** - **New Capacity**: There are new bottle - chip production facilities, and new capacities are planned for polyester filament, staple fiber, and chips in 2026 [175][176]. - **Supply**: The start - up rate has entered the off - season [178]. - **Export**: December export data increased year - on - year and month - on - month [184]. - **Inventory**: The inventory pressure of filament was relatively small [187]. - **Sales - to - Production Ratio**: There are data on the sales - to - production ratios of filament, staple fiber, and chips [194]. - **Profit**: The profit of filament improved significantly, and the profit of bottle - chips recovered [197][200]. - **Terminal** - **Start - up**: It has entered the off - season [203]. - **Order and Inventory**: Orders declined, inventory decreased, and raw material stockpiling was weak [209]. - **Retail and Export**: The growth rate of domestic demand for textile and clothing decreased, and exports were weak. The US clothing wholesale inventory was below the pre - pandemic high [213][216].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report suggests that the expectations for PX and PTA have been realized, and a cautious approach should be taken as the market returns to reality before the holiday. Overall, PX prices may continue to decline, while PTA may stabilize or experience a slight rebound due to improving demand [1][51]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **PTA & PX**: On February 5th, the PX main contract closed at 7,200.0 yuan/ton, down 1.32% from the previous trading day, with a basis of -203.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 5,144.0 yuan/ton, down 1.42% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 6.0 yuan/ton. The cost side shows that the Brent crude oil main contract closed at 68.95 US dollars/barrel, and WTI closed at 64.47 US dollars/barrel. The demand side indicates that the total transaction volume of the Light Textile City was 8.18 million meters, with a 15 - day average transaction of 7.702 million meters [3]. - **Supply - side**: PX supply is expected to remain loose, with limited device maintenance plans and continuous supply pressure. For PTA, there are no obvious disturbance signals in the operating rate, the device operates stably, but price adjustments and basis narrowing indicate a possible marginal increase in supply. The overall supply environment is neutral, with no significant contraction signs [4]. - **Demand - side**: Polyester demand shows a warming trend. The operating rate is expected to benefit from the downstream recovery. The transaction volume of the Light Textile City has exceeded the recent average, reflecting the recovery of terminal textile orders, which may boost polyester consumption and support PTA demand. The improvement on the demand side will partially buffer the downward pressure on costs and turn the market sentiment of PTA positive [4]. - **Inventory - side**: PTA factory inventory may be in a moderate destocking stage. After the current price adjustment, the basis has strengthened, indicating the resilience of spot demand and controllable inventory pressure. If the demand side continues to improve, inventory is expected to be further digested, providing bottom support for prices [4]. - **Polyester**: On February 5th, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,564.0 yuan/ton, up 0.06% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,555.0 yuan/ton, down 20.0 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a basis of -9.0 yuan/ton. The transaction volume of the Light Textile City (MA15) is stable in the range of 7.7 - 7.76 million meters, showing stable but no significant growth in terminal demand. The inventory of various polyester products is lower than the average of the past five years, and the inventory of DTY and POY has decreased week - on - week, reflecting low inventory pressure. Low inventory and stable demand may support prices, but the risks of increased supply and weak demand may limit the upside space [4][5]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **PX**: The main contract price of PX futures decreased by 1.32%, the trading volume decreased by 7.26%, and the open interest decreased by 4.28%. The CFR price at the main port in China remained unchanged, and the FOB price in South Korea decreased by 1.14%. The PX basis increased by 32.11% [6]. - **PTA**: The main contract price of PTA futures decreased by 1.42%, the trading volume decreased by 17.03%, and the open interest decreased by 1.47%. The CFR price at the main port in China remained unchanged. The PTA basis increased by 108.82%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 6.45%, the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 166.67%, the 9 - 1 spread increased by 10.71%, and the import profit decreased by 0.65% [6]. - **Short - fiber**: The main contract price of short - fiber futures increased by 0.06%, the trading volume increased by 62.58%, and the open interest increased by 100.10%. The spot price in the East China market decreased by 0.30%. The PF basis decreased by 160.00%, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 45.00%, the 5 - 9 spread increased by 58.33%, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 89.29% [6]. - **Other products**: The prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil decreased, while the prices of CFR Japanese naphtha, ethylene glycol, polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, polyester POY, polyester DTY, and polyester FDY remained mostly unchanged. The processing spreads of most products remained stable, with only a few showing slight changes [6][7]. 3.3 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - **Macro - dynamics**: On February 5th, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the Department of Labor resumed normal full - scale operation on February 4th, non - farm payrolls will be released on February 11th, and CPI data will be released on February 13th. On the same day, an expert seminar on the "15th Five - Year Plan for the Gold Industry (Discussion Draft)" was held in Beijing. On February 4th, Federal Reserve officials made statements about interest - rate cuts and inflation control [7][8]. - **Supply - and - demand - demand**: On February 5th, the total transaction volume of the Light Textile City was 8.18 million meters, a month - on - month increase of 10.69%, with 6.38 million meters of long - fiber fabric transactions and 1.82 million meters of short - fiber fabric transactions [9]. 3.4 Future Price Trend Judgment - **Supply - side**: PX supply may remain loose, with stable operating rates and no major device changes assumed. PTA supply shows that the devices are operating normally, and there are no significant changes in the operating rate [43][44][52]. - **Demand - side**: There are significant signs of improvement in polyester demand. The increase in the transaction volume of the Light Textile City indicates the recovery of downstream demand, which may drive PTA consumption [38][44][53]. - **Inventory - side**: PTA factory inventory may be relatively balanced. After the price adjustment, it may attract restocking demand, and the inventory pressure is limited [44][54].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - After the cost - side risks are released, the chemical sector has recovered at low levels. However, the overall supply - demand outlook for PX and PTA in the first quarter is weak, while the second - quarter supply - demand is expected to be tight, providing support for low prices. For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand pattern is weak in the near term and strong in the long term. Short - fiber supply and demand are seasonally weak in February, and bottle - chip supply is expected to increase while demand weakens seasonally [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows - POY150/48 price was 7095 yuan/ton on February 4, down 75 yuan from the previous day, a decrease of 1.1%. Its cash - flow decreased by 128 yuan to - 45.2%. FDY150/96 price was 7255 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan, and its cash - flow increased 552.0%. DTY150/48 price was 8155 yuan/ton, up 2.4%, and its cash - flow decreased by 82 yuan to - 23.5%. Polyester chip price was 5860 yuan/ton, up 1.6%, and its cash - flow decreased by 34.4%. Polyester bottle - chip price was 6256 yuan/ton, up 1.1%. The 1.4D direct - spun short - fiber price was 6560 yuan/ton, up 0.9% [2] 3.2 Upstream Prices - Brent crude oil (April) was 65.14 dollars/barrel, up 1.93 dollars, a 3.1% increase. WTI crude oil (March) was 63.21 dollars/barrel, down 0.5%. CFR Japan naphtha was 598 dollars/ton, up 14 dollars, a 2.4% increase. CFR China MX was 740 dollars/ton, up 12 dollars. CFR China PX was 902 dollars/ton, down 5 dollars. PX spot price (in RMB) was 7309 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan, a 0.4% increase [2] 3.3 PX - related Prices and Spreads - PX03 - PX05 spread was - 126 dollars/ton, up 10 dollars. PX - crude oil spread decreased by 18 dollars to - 2.6%. PX - naphtha spread decreased by 3 dollars to 77 dollars/ton. PX - MX spread was 162 dollars/ton, down 4.1% [2] 3.4 PTA - related Prices and Spreads - PTA East China spot price was 5140 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan, a 1.2% increase. TA futures 2605 was 5150 yuan/ton, up 1.3%. PTA spot processing fee was 10.6%, up 39 yuan. PTA disk processing fee (05) was 439 yuan, up 2.1% [2] 3.5 MEG Port Inventory and Arrival Forecast - MEG port inventory was 89.7 million tons on February 4, up 3.9 million tons, a 4.5% increase. MEG arrival forecast was 14.7 million tons, down 2.4 million tons [2] 3.6 Polyester Industry Chain Operating Rates - Asian PX operating rate was 81.0%, up 0.6%. Chinese PX operating rate was 89.2%, up 0.3%. PTA operating rate was 76.6%, unchanged. MEG comprehensive operating rate was 81.8%, up 3.0%. Polyester comprehensive operating rate was 86.2%, up 2.0%. Direct - spun filament operating rate was 84.6%, down 1.1%. Polyester bottle - chip operating rate was 66.1%, down 0.3%. Direct - spun short - fiber operating rate was 85.3%, down 12.9%. Pure - polyester yarn operating rate was 56.0%, down 3.0% [2] 3.7 MEG - related Prices and Spreads - MEG East China spot price was 3670 yuan/ton, up 0.1%. EG futures 2605 was 3767 yuan/ton, up 0.6%. EG05 - EG09 spread was - 111 dollars/ton, up 4.7%. Naphtha - based MEG cash - flow increased 5.0%. Ethylene - based MEG cash - flow increased by 4 dollars. MEG import profit increased by 31.8% [2] 3.8 Views on Each Product - **PX**: The supply - demand outlook in the first quarter is weak, but the second - quarter supply - demand is expected to be tight, supporting low prices. PX05 is expected to fluctuate between 7100 - 7600 in the short term, with a strategy of low - buying on a rolling basis [2] - **PTA**: The first - quarter supply - demand is weak, with expected large inventory accumulation, but the second - quarter supply - demand is expected to be tight, supporting low prices. TA05 is expected to fluctuate between 5100 - 5400 in the short term, with a strategy of low - buying on a rolling basis and a low - level positive spread for TA5 - 9 [2] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - demand pattern is weak in the near term and strong in the long term. EG2605 is expected to fluctuate between 3700 - 4100. There is an opportunity for a positive spread for EG5 - 9 at low levels, and the out - of - the - money call option EG2605 - C - 4200 can be sold at high prices [2] - **Short - fiber**: Supply and demand are seasonally weak in February. The price mainly fluctuates with raw materials. The short - fiber disk processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 800 - 1000, with a strategy of narrowing the spread at high prices [2] - **Bottle - chip**: Supply is expected to increase in February, while demand weakens seasonally. The bottle - chip factory is expected to have seasonal inventory accumulation, suppressing the processing fee. The absolute price follows the cost. The PR main - contract disk processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 400 - 550 yuan/ton, with an opportunity to narrow the spread at high prices and sell the put option PR2604 - P - 5900 at high prices [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the text. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polyester industry chain is in a state of cost - demand game, and the market is mainly in a volatile state. The prices of various products in the polyester industry chain are affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand relationship, and market sentiment, and are expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend [5][56][105]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Polyester Industry Chain Market Review - In January 2026, as the Spring Festival approached, the downstream demand decreased due to the weakening of the start - up rate of the middle and lower reaches. However, the rising crude oil price provided cost support. Coupled with the low valuation of polyester chain products and the improvement of the medium - and long - term supply - demand structure, the market sentiment was bullish, pushing the price to break through the upper limit [5]. 3.2 Crude Oil - In January 2026, due to geopolitical risks such as the arrest of the Venezuelan president by the United States, the turmoil in Iran, and the increase of troops in the Middle East by the United States, the geopolitical risk premium of crude oil increased, and the price of Brent crude oil rose from $60 per barrel to around $70 per barrel [9]. - OPEC + continued to increase crude oil production, and the commercial and strategic reserve crude oil inventories in the United States increased year - on - year. The gasoline cracking spread rebounded from a low level, and the operating rates of refineries in the United States and domestic local refineries increased year - on - year [11][14]. - Overall, the supply and demand of crude oil are temporarily stable, but with the support of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the oil price is expected to continue a volatile and slightly stronger trend [16]. 3.3 PX - In January 2026, the PX device changed little, and the operation was at a high level of about 90%. The downstream PTA start - up rate first increased and then decreased, with the center of gravity rising month - on - month. Under the support of cost and bullish market sentiment, the price rose rapidly after a narrow correction [19]. - The naphtha was in the off - season, and the cracking spread weakened. In February 2026, the supply - demand side of naphtha is expected to remain weak, and the absolute price will fluctuate with the cost, with the cracking spread expected to oscillate in the range of $60 - 90 per ton [24]. - There is no new production capacity plan for PX in the first half of 2026. In January 2026, the overall load of PX was around 90%, and the PX - Nap spread oscillated strongly in the range of $330 - 370 per ton. In February, it is expected to maintain a high - level operation of over 90%, and the PX - Nap spread will oscillate at a high level of $300 - 400 per ton [25][31]. - The demand for PX is expected to increase month - on - month in February 2026. The import volume is expected to decline month - on - month, and the inventory is expected to remain stable [34][37][39]. - From a technical perspective, if the PX price cannot effectively break below the support range of 7200 - 7300 yuan/ton, it still has an upward tendency. In terms of arbitrage, it is recommended to short the PX03 - 05 spread at high levels, with a target price range of - 200 to - 50 yuan/ton [50][54]. 3.4 PTA - In January 2026, the PTA price first adjusted downward and then rose. In the first and middle of the month, the price oscillated and adjusted downward due to the decline of terminal start - up rate and the release of downstream polyester maintenance plans. In the second half of the month, it rose strongly due to the support of cost and market sentiment [59]. - In 2025, the cumulative production of PTA was about 7368 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.93%. In January 2026, the start - up rate of PTA first increased and then decreased, and it is expected to rise to around 80% in February [64]. - There is no new production capacity for PTA in 2026. In January, the processing fee increased from 300 yuan/ton to around 450 yuan/ton, and it is expected to run strongly in the range of 300 - 500 yuan/ton in February [65][70]. - In 2025, the cumulative export of PTA was 381.71 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.60%. It is expected to gradually recover in February [75]. - The polyester production capacity will continue to increase in 2026. In January 2026, the polyester start - up rate declined seasonally, and it is expected to show a trend of first decline and then rise in February [80][83]. - In terms of arbitrage, it is recommended to short the PTA05 - 09 spread at high levels, with a target range of - 100 to - 50 yuan/ton. There is no good arbitrage opportunity for the basis for now [104]. 3.5 Ethylene Glycol - In January 2026, although the supply of ethylene glycol increased and the demand decreased, and the port continued to accumulate inventory, the price rebounded from a low level due to bullish market sentiment, the cold wave in the United States, and geopolitical risks in the Middle East [108]. - In January 2026, the comprehensive start - up rate of ethylene glycol oscillated around 74%, at a high level in the same period of history. It is expected to maintain a high - level operation of over 70% in February [112]. - The production capacity of ethylene glycol will further expand in 2026, but there is no new production capacity in the first half of the year [117]. - In 2025, the cumulative import volume of ethylene glycol was 772.05 tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.80%. It is expected that the import volume will decrease month - on - month in February [122]. - In January 2026, the inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports in East China continued to accumulate, and it is expected to continue to accumulate in February [125]. - The profit of downstream polyester was under pressure and weakened. The polyester start - up rate will decline seasonally in February, leading to a decrease in the demand for ethylene glycol [126][136]. - From a technical perspective, the price of ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate mainly in the range of 3600 - 4000 yuan/ton. In terms of arbitrage, it is recommended to long the MEG05 - 09 spread, with a target range of - 50 to 0 yuan/ton [146][149]. 3.6 Polyester Staple Fiber - In January 2026, the start - up of polyester staple fiber was at a high level. Due to the seasonal weakening of demand and the rising cost, the processing fee decreased, and the absolute price increased with the cost [153]. - The production capacity of polyester staple fiber will expand in 2026, with an expected increase of 100 tons. In 2025, the output was 809.54 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.62% [161]. - In January 2026, the start - up rate of polyester staple fiber first remained high and then declined. The processing fee is expected to maintain a relatively low level of around 1000 yuan/ton in February [164]. - In January 2026, the number of terminal weaving orders decreased seasonally. It is expected to pick up seasonally after the Spring Festival [167]. - In 2025, the domestic retail sales of clothing, shoes, and hats increased year - on - year, while the export of clothing was weak, and the export of textile raw materials continued to grow [170]. - In January 2026, the start - up rates of weaving and texturing machines decreased seasonally. It is expected to reach the bottom during the Spring Festival and recover at the end of the month [173][174]. - The start - up of yarn and grey fabric was relatively stable, but the inventory was at a high level. The processing fee of pure polyester yarn remained at a low level, and the raw material inventory increased slightly [177][181]. - In 2025, the export of polyester staple fiber increased year - on - year. It is expected to decrease month - on - month in February [191]. - In January 2026, the inventory of polyester staple fiber factories was neutral and low. It is expected to rise temporarily in February [194]. - From a technical perspective, the short - fiber futures price is expected to oscillate near the resistance level of 6800 yuan/ton in the short term. There is no good arbitrage opportunity for now [203][208]. 3.7 Polyester Bottle Chips - In January 2026, the start - up rate of polyester bottle chips decreased to around 70%, the processing fee recovered to over 500 yuan/ton, and the absolute price increased with the cost [213]. - The processing fee of bottle chips increased from 450 yuan/ton to around 580 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain above 500 yuan/ton in February [218]. - In 2026, there is no new production capacity for bottle chips. In January, the production capacity decreased by 21 tons month - on - month, and the output is expected to decrease month - on - month in February [223]. - In 2025, the export of bottle chips increased year - on - year. It is expected to decrease month - on - month in February [228]. - The domestic demand for bottle chips is in the off - season. It is expected that the start - up rate of downstream industries will decline to the lowest level of the year in February [231]. - The inventory of bottle chips is expected to remain at a low level. In January 2026, the inventory decreased from 16 days to 10 days [236]. - From a technical perspective, the price of bottle chips is expected to break through the resistance of 6400 yuan/ton after adjustment. In terms of arbitrage, the PR03 - 05 spread is expected to fall into a Contango structure, and there is no arbitrage opportunity for the basis for now [244][249].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The PX market is currently experiencing a callback in PXN due to a lack of fundamental driving forces and the suppression of the off - season. Although the current load is high and downstream PTA is in the maintenance season with high inventory, the supply - demand structure of PX and PTA is strong after the Spring Festival, and there are opportunities to go long following the trend of crude oil in the medium term [11]. - The PTA market shows that the processing fee has remained at a high level, but the market is still weak due to the compression of PXN. In the short term, high maintenance on the supply side and the decline in polyester load on the demand side lead to inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival. There is a risk of a processing fee callback in the short term, but there is room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival [12]. - The MEG market has a high overall load, and the inventory accumulation cycle at ports will continue. There is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction under the pressure of inventory accumulation and high operation. The current valuation is relatively high year - on - year, and it may need to be compressed in the medium term without further domestic production cuts [13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation PX - **Price Performance**: The 03 contract fell 226 yuan last week to 7282 yuan, while the CFR China spot price rose 14 dollars to 921 dollars, and the spot conversion basis rose 119 yuan to 50 yuan as of January 30. The 3 - 5 spread remained flat at - 118 yuan [11]. - **Supply**: The domestic load was 89.2%, a 0.3% increase, and the Asian load was 81.6%, a 0.6% increase. There are still few domestic maintenance plans, and overseas device loads are expected to rise further. In January, South Korea's PX exports to China decreased by 6.8 tons year - on - year [11]. - **Demand**: The PTA load was 76.6%, remaining unchanged. The expected maintenance volume in February is similar to that in January, and the overall load is still low [11]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory at the end of November was 446 tons, a 6 - ton increase. It is expected to continue to accumulate in January and February due to high PTA maintenance and high PX operation [11]. - **Valuation and Cost**: As of January 29, PXN was 325 dollars, a 15 - dollar decrease year - on - year; the naphtha crack spread decreased by 15 dollars to 85 dollars. The relative value of aromatics blending into gasoline is weak [11]. - **Summary**: The PX market is affected by the off - season, and the cost of crude oil has compressed the chemical valuation. It is expected to accumulate inventory before the maintenance season, but the supply - demand structure is strong after the Spring Festival, and there are opportunities to follow the trend of crude oil for long - position operations in the medium term [11]. PTA - **Price Performance**: The 05 contract fell 178 yuan last week to 5270 yuan, the East China spot price rose 90 yuan to 5245 yuan, the spot basis rose 2 yuan to - 76 yuan as of January 30, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 52 yuan to - 12 yuan [12]. - **Supply**: The PTA load was 76.6%, remaining unchanged, and the expected maintenance volume in February is similar to that in January, with a low overall load [12]. - **Demand**: The polyester load was 84.2%, a 2.2% decrease. Polyester fiber is affected by the off - season, and the bottle - chip load has decreased earlier than expected. Terminal orders have decreased, and inventory has increased [12]. - **Inventory**: As of January 23, the overall PTA social inventory was 208.3 tons, a 3.8 - ton increase, and it has entered the inventory accumulation stage [12]. - **Profit**: The spot processing fee rose 33 yuan to 386 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee rose 41 yuan to 491 yuan/ton [12]. - **Summary**: The PTA processing fee is at a high level, but the market is weak. In the short term, there is a risk of a processing fee callback, but there is room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival [12]. MEG - **Price Performance**: The 05 contract fell 84 yuan last week to 3913 yuan, the East China spot price rose 169 yuan to 3829 yuan, the basis rose 6 yuan to - 112 yuan as of January 30, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 22 yuan to - 105 yuan [13]. - **Supply**: The EG load was 74.4%, a 1.4% increase. Overseas load is low, but domestic production cuts are insufficient. The expected arrival volume last week was 14.7 tons, a 5.8 - ton decrease [13]. - **Demand**: The polyester load was 84.2%, a 2.2% decrease. Polyester fiber is affected by the off - season, and the bottle - chip load has decreased earlier than expected. Terminal orders have decreased, and inventory has increased [13]. - **Inventory**: As of January 26, the port inventory was 85.8 tons, a 6.3 - ton increase, and the downstream factory inventory days increased by 0.2 days to 14.8 days. It is expected to continue to accumulate inventory in January and February [13]. - **Valuation and Cost**: The naphtha - based profit remained at - 1024 yuan/ton, the domestic ethylene - based profit rose 229 yuan to - 543 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit rose 357 yuan to 352 yuan/ton. The current overall valuation is moderately low [13]. - **Summary**: The MEG market has a high load and continuous inventory accumulation. There is an expectation of profit compression and load reduction, and the valuation may need to be compressed in the medium term [13]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market PX - **Basis and Spread**: The basis strengthened, and the monthly spread declined [31]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Relevant charts show the trends of active contract trading volume, open interest, total trading volume, and total open interest [35][37]. PTA - **Basis and Spread**: The basis weakened, and the monthly spread decreased [39]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Relevant charts show the trends of active contract trading volume, open interest, total trading volume, and total open interest [45][48]. MEG - **Basis and Spread**: The basis and monthly spread trends are presented in relevant charts [53]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Relevant charts show the trends of active contract trading volume, open interest, total trading volume, and total open interest [60][61]. Overseas Commodity Prices - Charts show the overseas price trends of PX, MEG, and PTA [64]. 3.3. p - Xylene (PX) Fundamentals - **New Capacity**: Domestic new capacities include the 30 - ton technical transformation of Fujia Dahua in early 2026, the 200 - ton project of Huajin Aramco in Q3 2026, and the 300 - ton project of Yantai Yulongdao from late 2026 to 2027. Overseas, IOC in India will add 80 tons in H2 2026 [67]. - **Supply**: The load remained stable, with the domestic load at 89.2% and the Asian load at 81.6% [11]. - **Import**: The import volume increased significantly in December [73]. - **Inventory**: There was a slight inventory accumulation in November [76]. - **Cost and Profit**: PXN declined, the short - process price difference was high, and the naphtha crack spread fluctuated [79]. - **Aromatics Blending into Gasoline**: Gasoline performance was weak, and the relative value of blending was low [86]. 3.4. PTA Fundamentals - **New Capacity**: In 2025, Honggang Petrochemical (Phase III), Hailun Petrochemical 3, and Dushan Energy 4 added new capacities. In 2026, India Oil and GAIL will also add capacities [119]. - **Supply**: The load was 76.6%, remaining unchanged, and the expected maintenance volume in February is similar to that in January [12]. - **Export**: Relevant charts show the trends of PTA exports to different regions [124]. - **Inventory**: Inventory has started to accumulate [126]. - **Profit and Valuation**: The processing fee has increased significantly [129]. 3.5. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) Fundamentals - **New Capacity**: In 2025, Zhengdaikai Phase I, Yulong Petrochemical 1, and Yichang (Kunpeng Phase I) added new capacities. In 2026, BASF, Tianying, Huajin Aramco, and Zhongsha Gulei will also add capacities [133]. - **Supply**: The load was 74.4%, a 1.4% increase, with insufficient domestic production cuts [13]. - **Import**: The import volume increased significantly in December [137]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased slightly this week (with a change in the statistical caliber) [147]. - **Cost**: Coal prices declined, and ethylene prices fell [157]. - **Profit**: The profit is moderately low [160]. 3.6. Polyester and End - Users Polyester - **New Capacity**: There will be many new capacity projects in the first half of 2026, mainly in polyester filament, staple fiber, bottle - chip, and slice [177]. - **Supply**: The operating rate decreased seasonally [179]. - **Export**: The export data in December increased both year - on - year and month - on - month [185]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of polyester filament is at a low level [188]. - **Sales Rate**: Relevant charts show the sales rate trends of filament, staple fiber, and slice [195]. - **Profit**: The profit of polyester filament has improved [198]. End - Users - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate decreased, with a relatively slow year - on - year decline [201]. - **Order and Inventory**: Orders decreased, inventory increased, and raw material inventory increased [205]. - **Textile and Apparel and Soft Drinks**: The domestic demand growth rate of textile and apparel has recovered, but exports are weak [210]. - **US Apparel Inventory**: The wholesale inventory is lower than the pre - pandemic high [212].

融 研 究 院 聚酯：淡季中的强预期 张永鸽 期货从业证号：F0282934 投资咨询证号: Z0011351 业 金 期 货 弘 数据来源：Wind CCF 隆众资讯 弘业期货金融研究院 p 后市研判 风险点：原油 政策 装置变动 数据来源：Wind CCF 隆众资讯 弘业期货金融研究院 融 研 究 院 l 在强预期及资金涌入的带动下，聚酯产业链最近行情火爆。基于预期的好转和供需面的良好，PTA市场表现较为强势，PX的强势支撑和PTA 低开工、聚酯市场降负的缓慢共振。PTA价格在上涨的同时，也带动现货加工费和盘面加工费的纷纷走高。其中现货加工费提升至460元/吨 附近，环比25年末的300元不到的加工费大幅抬升。目前来看PTA市场负荷仍不高，季节性累库幅度不大。不过随着终端降负的加快，2月中 上旬聚酯也将迎来负荷低点，PTA若继续持续拉升或透支未来需求，后期市场或偏强震荡为主，但幅度料有限。 弘 业 期 货 金 l 乙二醇市场作为聚酯产业链中最弱的品种，在供需远期压力下持续走低。上周后半周沙特、科威特及美国等多装置检修停车，海外供应收 窄预期下，资金对于低估值的乙二醇产生做多意愿。国内卫星石化计划2月中转产 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, indicating a favorable investment environment [4]. Core Insights - Three major institutions have raised their oil supply forecasts, with the EIA predicting a global surplus of 2.83 million barrels per day for this year [6][16]. - The EIA has adjusted its 2026 oil price forecast upward to an average of $56 per barrel, while lowering the natural gas price forecast to $3.46 per million British thermal units [7][11]. - The IEA expects a demand increase of 930,000 barrels per day in 2026, while OPEC and EIA have slightly reduced their demand forecasts [11][16]. Supply and Demand Summary - The EIA has raised its global oil supply forecast for this year by 120,000 barrels per day, while the IEA has increased its forecast by 100,000 barrels per day [13][16]. - The EIA anticipates that global oil production will rise by 1.37 million barrels per day in 2026, with OPEC+ contributing approximately 1.13 million barrels per day [15][16]. - The IEA projects a global oil supply increase of 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026, reaching 108.7 million barrels per day [16]. Price Trends Summary - The price of butadiene has surged over 28% since the beginning of the year, driven by a narrowing price spread between naphtha and ethylene [17]. - As of January 23, the spot price of butadiene reached 10,700 yuan per ton [17]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality companies in the polyester sector, such as Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials, due to tightening supply and improving market conditions [21]. - It suggests monitoring major refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Dongfang Shenghong, as refining margins are expected to improve [21]. - The report also highlights the potential of offshore oil service companies like CNOOC Services and Haiyou Engineering, given the high capital expenditure in offshore exploration [21].

Report Summary 1. Overall Investment Outlook - In the first half of 2026, PX is expected to be the strongest product in the polyester industry chain [15] 2. Core Views - PX: After a negative feedback cycle, PX processing fees have reached a reasonable level, and the pressure on short - selling has eased. Attention should be paid to the 3 - 5 positive spread and the strategy of going long on PX and short on PTA [3] - PTA: It is expected to enter a pattern of declining demand. The downside space for the unilateral price is limited, and attention should be paid to the position of narrowing the processing fees [4] - MEG: In the medium - term, it will be in a volatile market with limited downside space. Attention should be paid to the possibility of the basis and spread increasing [5] 3. Summary by Product PX - **Valuation and Profit** - The PXN spread is at $326/ton (-$18), and the PX - MX spread is $145/ton. The internal - external spread arbitrage space has narrowed, and the 3 - 5 spread has rebounded from the bottom [3][23] - The gasoline inventory has been rising, the aromatics blending oil demand is weak, and the aromatics blending oil economy has declined [32][41] - **Supply and Inventory** - Domestic PX production is at a high level, with an operating rate of 89.4% (-1.5%). Overseas, the Asian overall load is 80.6% (-0.6%). The import volume in the first quarter is expected to increase [3][63] - In December, the PX inventory was 445 million tons (+6) [90] PTA - **Valuation and Profit** - The basis and spread have been declining. The PTA processing fee has increased, with the 05 - contract processing fee at 335 yuan/ton (+20) and the spot processing fee at 378 yuan/ton (+59) [96][104] - **Supply and Inventory** - The PTA operating rate is 76.9% (-1.1%). In November, the PTA export was 360,000 tons, with significant increases in Egypt, Oman, and India [108][112] - The total inventory is at a low level, but the inventory accumulation in February is expected to be significant [127] MEG - **Valuation and Profit** - The unilateral price has rebounded from the bottom, but the spread structure is still weak. The relative valuation has been decreasing [150][155] - The coal - based device profit is - 295 yuan/ton (-34), and the oil - based device continues to be in a loss situation [157] - **Supply and Inventory** - The MEG operating rate is 74.4%. The coal - based load is at a high level, and the import volume in 1 - 2 months is expected to decrease [5][160] - The port inventory is at a high level [172] Polyester - **Production and Inventory** - The polyester operating rate is 88.8% (-2%). The inventory has increased slightly, but the pressure is not significant [179][187] - **Export and Profit** - From January to November, the total polyester export was 13.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.7%. The long - filament factory's loss has been repaired, and the profits of short - fiber and bottle - chip are acceptable [191][193] Terminal (Weaving and Textile) - **Domestic Market** - The domestic textile and clothing retail sales from January to November were 1359.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5% [223] - The weaving industry has a poor new order atmosphere, but there are sporadic improvements in some markets. The domestic demand orders are weakening, and the raw material inventory is increasing [215][219] - **Overseas Market** - The overseas textile and clothing retail data in the US and Europe are strongly rising. The US clothing and fabric inventory has decreased slightly month - on - month [233][239]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX: Last week, PXN pulled back due to cooling commodity bullish sentiment and lack of further drivers, along with the polyester market entering the off - season. Currently, PX load remains high while downstream PTA has many maintenance activities. It is expected to accumulate inventory before the maintenance season. However, after the Spring Festival, both PX and downstream PTA are expected to have strong supply - demand, and the repair of PTA processing fees will further expand the space for PXN. Mid - term, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil [11]. - PTA: Last week, PTA processing fees fluctuated, and the upstream PXN was compressed. In the future, the supply side will maintain high maintenance in the short term, and the demand side, polyester and chemical fiber, will face great profit pressure and gradually reduce load due to the off - season. It is expected to enter the inventory accumulation stage during the Spring Festival. In terms of valuation, PTA processing fees have recovered to a normal level, and the PXN center has also risen. It will maintain fluctuations in the short term due to the off - season, but there is still room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival. Mid - term, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips and grasp the rhythm [12]. - MEG: In terms of industry fundamentals, the unexpected maintenance of foreign device loads has increased, while the domestic maintenance decline is still insufficient. The overall load is still high, and the import volume is expected to decline in January but the decline is limited. The port inventory accumulation cycle will continue. Mid - term, under the pressure of new device production, there is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction. The current valuation is neutral year - on - year. In the short term, beware of the rebound risk due to the tense situation in Iran. Mid - term, if there is no further domestic production reduction, the valuation is expected to be compressed [13]. Summaries According to the Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **PX**: - **Price Performance**: The 03 contract fell 38 yuan to 7130 yuan last week. The spot CFR China price dropped 5 dollars to 881 dollars. The spot - converted basis fell 16 yuan to - 15 yuan as of January 15th, and the 3 - 5 spread fell 16 yuan to - 58 yuan [11]. - **Supply**: The domestic load was 89.4%, a 1.5% MoM decrease; the Asian load was 80.6%, a 0.6% MoM decrease. Zhejiang Petrochemical reduced its load, and overseas Thai PTTG and Israeli Gadiv plants restarted. In January, South Korea exported 14.6 tons of PX to China in the first ten days, a 0.7 - ton YoY increase [11]. - **Demand**: PTA load was 76.9%, a 1.3% MoM decrease. Dushan Energy increased its load, and Yisheng New Materials stopped production. The expected maintenance volume of PTA in January remains at the December level, and the overall load is still low [11]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 446 tons at the end of November, a 6 - ton increase. According to the balance sheet, inventory accumulation is expected to continue from January to February [11]. - **Valuation and Cost**: As of January 14th, PXN was 337 dollars, a 30 - dollar YoY decrease; the naphtha crack spread fell 9 dollars to 81 dollars, and crude oil fluctuated. The gasoline crack spread in the US and Asia was weak last week, and the aromatics spread remained low, with the relative value of blending oil being weak [11]. - **PTA**: - **Price Performance**: The 05 contract fell 38 yuan to 5048 yuan last week. The spot price in East China dropped 20 yuan to 5050 yuan. The spot basis rose 16 yuan to - 64 yuan as of January 15th, and the 5 - 9 spread fell 22 yuan to 38 yuan [12]. - **Supply**: PTA load was 76.9%, a 1.3% MoM decrease. Dushan Energy increased its load, and Yisheng New Materials stopped production. The expected maintenance volume of PTA in January remains at the December level, and the overall load is still low [12]. - **Demand**: Polyester load was 88.1%, a 2.7% MoM decrease. Among them, filament load was 88.8%, a 1.4% MoM decrease; staple fiber load was 97.6%, flat MoM; bottle chip load was 74.8%, a 0.1% MoM increase. In terms of terminals, finished product inventory increased, orders decreased, and the load of texturing, weaving, and polyester yarn all decreased [12]. - **Inventory**: As of January 9th, the overall PTA social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 200.5 tons, a 2.5 - ton decrease. Polyester will gradually start maintenance in January, and PTA is expected to start accumulating inventory [12]. - **Profit**: The spot processing fee rose 15 yuan to 383 yuan/ton, and the futures processing fee fell 13 yuan to 371 yuan/ton as of January 15th [12]. - **MEG**: - **Price Performance**: The 05 contract fell 29 yuan to 3817 yuan last week. The spot price in East China dropped 21 yuan to 3696 yuan. The basis rose 3 yuan to - 140 yuan as of January 15th, and the 5 - 9 spread fell 20 yuan to - 111 yuan [13]. - **Supply**: EG load was 74.4%, a 0.3% MoM increase. Among them, syngas - based load was 80.2%, a 0.9% MoM increase; ethylene - based load was 71.2%, a 0.1% MoM decrease. Overseas, a Kuwaiti plant stopped production, and US Sasol reduced its load [13]. - **Demand**: Polyester load was 88.1%, a 2.7% MoM decrease. In terms of terminals, finished product inventory increased, orders decreased, and the load of texturing, weaving, and polyester yarn all decreased [13]. - **Inventory**: As of January 12th, port inventory was 80.2 tons, a 7.7 - ton increase; downstream factory inventory days were 14 days, a 0.7 - day decrease. In the short term, port inventory is expected to accumulate [13]. - **Valuation and Cost**: Naphtha - based profit decreased 180 yuan to - 937 yuan/ton, domestic ethylene - based profit rose 58 yuan to - 836 yuan/ton, and coal - based profit rose 95 yuan to 283 yuan/ton. The current overall valuation is neutral [13]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **PX**: Basis fluctuated, and monthly spreads weakened. Trading volume and open interest data are presented in relevant charts [32][35]. - **PTA**: Basis weakened, and monthly spreads declined. Trading volume and open interest data are presented in relevant charts [40][47]. - **MEG**: Basis fluctuated, and monthly spreads were weak. Trading volume and open interest data are presented in relevant charts [56][64]. 3. p - Xylene Fundamentals - **Capacity and Production**: Domestic new capacities include FJDH (technical transformation), Huajin Aramco, and Yantai Yulongdao; overseas new capacity is IOC. The start - up rate in China and Asia has changed, and the import volume in November decreased slightly [74][80]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory increased slightly in November [83]. - **Cost and Profit**: PXN pulled back slightly, the short - process spread was high, and the naphtha crack spread fluctuated. The performance of gasoline in aromatics blending was weak [86][94]. 4. PTA Fundamentals - **Capacity and Production**: New capacities in 2025 include Honggang Petrochemical, Hailun Petrochemical, and Dushan Energy; in 2026, new capacities are from India Oil and GAIL. The load has changed, and the export volume data is provided [128]. - **Inventory**: There was phased inventory reduction [135]. - **Profit and Valuation**: Processing fees fluctuated after a rebound [138]. 5. Ethylene Glycol Fundamentals - **Capacity and Production**: New capacities in 2025 include Zhengdaikai, Yulong Petrochemical, and Yichang; in 2026, new capacities are from BASF, Tianying, Huajin Aramco, and Zhongsha Gulei. The start - up rate has changed, and the import volume decreased in November [142]. - **Inventory**: Port inventory increased slightly this week (the statistical caliber has changed) [155]. - **Cost and Profit**: Coal prices fluctuated weakly, ethylene prices fell, and the profit was moderately low [166][169]. 6. Polyester and End - users - **Polyester**: There will be more new capacity put into production in the first half of 2026. The start - up rate decreased seasonally, the export data in November increased both YoY and MoM, the filament inventory was at a low level, the filament profit recovered slightly [186][188][194]. - **End - users**: The start - up rate decreased, and the year - on - year decline rate was relatively slow. Orders decreased, inventory increased, and raw material inventory decreased. The domestic demand growth rate of textile and clothing recovered, while exports were weak. The US clothing wholesale inventory was lower than the pre - pandemic high [210][217][220].