作者 | 第一财经 王方然 "三年前存100万，利息能买一辆车；现在存三年，利息只够加三年油。"福建储户黄元（化名）告诉 记者，三年前，她的存款利率还有3.5%，现在则降至1.3%，百万存款三年利息从10.5万元缩水至 3.9万元。 5月下旬，六大国有银行集体下调利率，一年期定存首次跌破1%，活期利率仅0.05%。近一周以来， 十余家中小银行紧随大行降息步伐，将最高定存利率压至1.7%以下。 2025.05. 25 本文字数：2660，阅读时长大约4分钟 曾经火爆的大额存单抢购潮偃旗息鼓。部分银行同步调低大额存单利率，并下架2年期以上产品。目 前大行大额存单利率多未超过1.4%。部分民营银行调降后，可购大额存单最高利率也仅为1.65%。 面对低利率时代，年轻人开始寻找"存款替代"， "货币基金+债基+黄金"的"新三金"配置成为新宠。 当存款不再是"躺赚"的选择，一场全民理财意识觉醒的浪潮正在到来。 利率跌破1% 5月20日，工、农、中、建、交、邮储六大国有银行、招商银行同步下调存款利率。一年期定期存款 利率首次跌破1%至0.95%，活期利率降至0.05%。 股份行快速跟进。截至记者发稿前，中信银行、兴业银行、 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客 户，用作新媒体形势下研究信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿 订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便， 敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为光大 证券的客户。 报告摘要 事件： 风险提示： 经济进一步承压，增量政策落地效果不及预期，存款成本管控政策效果不及预期。 发布日期： 2025-05-20 免责声明 5月7日以来，央行推动降准、降息等"一揽子"金融政策操作落地，释放稳预期、稳增长积极信号，着力修 复总需求，为经济企稳回升提供友好的货币金融环境。伴随宽货币系列政策逐项落地，利率频谱系统性下 移。基于此，我们针对利率政策组合对银行经营的影响进行测算，并探讨银行后续经营变化与银行股投 资。 点评： 一、 OMO利率调降后，存贷款降息"靴子落地"，政策注重"第四重平衡" 从货币政策宽松的内在逻辑看，主要是在外部形势不确定性增加、经济下行压力加大、信用活动偏弱的情 形下，通过加大逆周期调控力度， ...

银行引导储户"存短期"的意图依然清晰。 值得注意的是，目前中小银行仍存在一定程度的存款利率期限倒挂。例如，记者21日致电咨询时，新疆库尔勒富民村 镇银行1年期存款利率为2%，两年期存款利率为2.05%，5年期存款利率为1.95%。怀仁农商行、朔州农商行、陵川县 联社的中短期限存款利率也存在不同程度的倒挂。 华南一名银行分析人士认为，按照存款降息"大行先行、中小行跟进"的节奏，此后上述中小银行1年期存款利率或也 将陆续下调，与3年期、5年期存款利率接近。市场中存在的存款利率极限倒挂现象或将逐步消失。 此前第一财经曾报道多家银行出现"存两年不如存一年""存五年不如存一年"的极限倒挂现象。（详见《存两年不如存 一年？多家银行中短期限存款利率罕见倒挂》） 现在随着存款降息潮来临，活期与中短期存款利率普遍下调，以招商银行为代表的头部机构，其一年期与五年期存款 利率倒挂已消失。目前，中小银行期限倒挂依然存在。部分业内人士认为，随着后续中小银行补降，中短期限存款利 率进一步压降，与长期限存款利率间的倒挂或也将减少或消失。 值得关注的是，银行引导储户"存短期"的意图依然清晰，在应对净息差收窄压力的同时，正通过精细化定价策略重 ...

银行行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 存款利率下调呵护银行息差，存款脱媒或 较为温和 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 ⚫ 当前进入稳增长政策密集落地期，宽货币先行，宽财政紧随，地方化债显著提速， 对 25 年银行基本面产生深刻影响；财政政策力度加码，支撑社融信贷并提振经济预 期，顺周期品种有望受益；广谱利率下行区间，银行净息差短期承压，但高息存款 进入集中重定价周期叠加监管对高息揽存行为持续整治，对 25 年银行息差形成重要 呵护；25 年是银行资产质量夯实之年，政策托底下，房地产、城投资产风险预期有 望显著改善，风险暴露和处置较为充分的部分个贷品种也有望迎来资产质量拐点。 ⚫ 现阶段关注两条投资主线： 风险提示 经济复苏不及预期；房地产等重点领域风险蔓延；流动性环境超预期收紧；假设条件变 化影响测算结果。 国家/地区 中国 行业 银行行业 报告发布日期 2025 年 05 月 21 日 | 屈俊 | qujun@orientsec.com.cn | | --- | --- | | | 执业证书编号：S0860523060001 | | 于博文 | yubowen1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The reduction in deposit rates is greater than expected, with the average reduction being 16 basis points, which is higher than the 10 basis points reduction in loan rates, indicating a clear regulatory support for interest margins [5] - The phenomenon of deposit disintermediation is expected to persist long-term, although the degree of disintermediation is weaker than last year due to manual interest compensation governance [2] - The average annualized yield for cash management products is 1.46%, which is higher than the actual interest rate for state-owned banks' 1-year deposits by 36 basis points, suggesting that wealth management products still have a comparative advantage over deposits [2] Summary by Sections Deposit Rate Adjustments - As of May 20, 2025, the LPR for 1-year and 5-year has been lowered by 10 basis points to 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, with significant reductions in various deposit rates across state-owned banks and China Merchants Bank [5] - The new rates for different deposit types include a reduction in the current deposit rate to 0.05% and a 15 basis point reduction for 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year fixed deposits [5] Market Impact - Short-term market expectations for interest rate cuts have been fully priced in, with limited immediate impact on bond market prices. However, in the medium to long term, the reduction in deposit rates may improve funding costs and lead to a decline in bond yields [3] - The improvement in funding costs is expected to enhance the ticket yield for banks, as previous constraints on allocation due to funding costs are alleviated [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that bank stocks are not in the latter stage but rather at the beginning of a long cycle, with regulatory support for interest margins and declining rates benefiting dividend stocks [6] - Key recommendations include city commercial banks such as Jiangsu Bank and Chengdu Bank, as well as dividend-paying banks like Agricultural Bank and China CITIC Bank [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The attitude towards the bond market remains relatively positive. It is recommended to maintain a medium - to - high duration in the portfolio, appropriately increase leverage to boost short - bond holdings, and seize buying opportunities for long - end bonds during adjustments [3][49]. - Although short - term interest rates are currently weak, as technical factors wane and with the potential for deposit rate cuts and a stable monetary policy, short - and medium - term interest rates are expected to decline, which will support long - term bonds [2][3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Constraints on Short - Term Interest Rates from Some Technical Factors May Weaken in the Future - The weak performance of the 2 - year Treasury bond futures (TS) has restricted short - term interest rates. After the basis repair, the IRR of the CTD bond of the TS2506 contract has dropped, reducing the suppression on futures prices and potentially boosting confidence in short - term bonds [7][12]. - The decline in the central bank's claims on the government in the balance sheet may be due to the maturity of short - term bonds previously purchased or the closing of the previous short - selling long - buying operation. Currently, the impact of this factor is gradually weakening, and large banks have resumed net buying of 1 - 3 - year Treasury bonds [12][15][16]. 3.2 In the Short Term, the Probability of the Funding Rate Remaining Loose but Lower than the Policy Rate is Low, but the Decline in Deposit Rates is Still Expected to Benefit the Short - End - After the RRR cut, the tightening of the funding market was a temporary shock. The average - method assessment of the RRR and the large - scale net payment of government bonds and net withdrawal of reverse repurchase and MLF were the main reasons [17][18][19]. - Although the excess reserve ratio in April was at a low level, the central bank may tolerate a decline in banks' net lending, indicating that it hopes to maintain a loose environment but may not want the funding rate to fall significantly below the policy rate. The decline in deposit rates is conducive to compressing short - and medium - term spreads [25][30]. 3.3 The Weakening of Economic Data in April Indicates Insufficient Demand, and the Fundamental Environment is Still Favorable for the Bond Market - In April, new credit and social financing were both lower than expected. New credit mainly came from government bond issuance, and the decline in new credit may be due to the lack of bank reserve projects after the early - year impulse [34][35][39]. - Despite the slowdown in credit growth, the M2 growth rate increased due to the rise in banks' net lending and bond investment. However, the M1 growth rate declined, indicating limited currency activation [39][42]. - In April, domestic demand declined. Retail sales, investment, and production all showed signs of weakness, indicating that the fundamental environment is favorable for the bond market [44][45][47]. 3.4 The Bond Market is Expected to Continue a Relatively Strong and Volatile Trend - Although the recent Sino - US negotiation has made progress, the impact of short - term export rush is short - term. External demand still faces uncertainties, and domestic demand is insufficient. - The monetary policy is expected to remain in a loose range. If the funding expectation stabilizes, short - and medium - term interest rates are expected to decline, which will support long - term bonds [49].

4 月金融数据解读、银行投资框架及观点更新 20250514 摘要 • 四月社融数据主要依赖政府加杠杆，广义政府融资占比超三分之二，信贷 数据低于预期，企业中长期贷款增速持续下行，反映出经济内生动力不足， 需关注未来政策刺激。 • 居民端信贷表现疲软，短期贷款同比显著下降，反映消费意愿不强，但房 贷利率已降至历史低位，购房现金比例仍高，抑制中长期贷款投放，未来 或有更多促消费政策出台。 • 央行降息有助于稳定居民中长期贷款，M2 增速受益于非银存款高增而提 升，但金融脱媒进程放缓，M1 增速指示 PPI 仍面临通缩压力，监管目标转 向价格考核，避免过度货币扩张。 • 企业贷款供过于求，个人贷款供需平衡，货币政策或更侧重刺激有效贷款 需求，社融及信贷增速预计下行，结构上政府融资为主，投放注重效率， 避免资金空转。 • 银行股投资逻辑基于经济资产质量、利率风险和资金支持，当前投资银行 板块主要基于其稳健利润和稳定股息回报，股息率较高标的更具吸引力， 回报率在 4%-6%之间。 Q&A 四月的金融数据有哪些关键点？ 四月份的新增社会融资规模（社融）为 1.1 万亿元，比去年略有上升。然而， 新增人民币信贷仅为 84 ...