Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant interference of the Trump administration's tariff war on the Federal Reserve's decision-making process [1][2] - The April inflation data in the U.S. shows a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, marking the lowest level since February 2021, and a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, both below market expectations [2] - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance is influenced by the uncertainty stemming from the tariff war, which complicates the decision to potentially initiate interest rate cuts despite the favorable inflation trends [2][3] Group 2 - The decision-making environment for the Federal Reserve has changed significantly since the 2008 financial crisis, with the current economic landscape characterized by irregular shocks and complexities introduced by the Trump administration's policies [3] - The Federal Reserve's historical decision-making mechanisms may not adequately address the new challenges posed by the current economic conditions, leading to market disputes regarding its policy responses [3][4] - The implementation of tariffs has immediate effects on market behavior, suggesting that inflation may rise in anticipation of these changes, rather than as a delayed response [4] Group 3 - The current global economic environment is marked by rapid changes and uncertainties, including the restructuring of global supply chains and the unpredictable impacts of new technologies like AI [4] - The sustainability of U.S. fiscal policies is under scrutiny, particularly concerning the burden of national debt and interest payments, which adds to the uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's future decisions [4]

Group 1 - The April CPI data release is expected to ignite a fierce debate about inflation trends, intertwining with Trump's trade policies and Federal Reserve monetary decisions [1] - Housing costs are a critical variable in determining whether the inflation decline trend continues, with housing inflation rate dropping to 4% in Q1 2025, resonating with slowing private market home price growth [3] - The impact of tariffs is beginning to permeate the market, with a 2% increase in tariff revenue indicating accumulating cost pressures for businesses [3] Group 2 - The current CPI data may underestimate long-term inflation risks due to the lag in price increases of industrial intermediate goods, which typically take 6-12 months to pass through the supply chain [4] - Consumer behavior is being distorted by tariff uncertainties, leading to the largest price increase in non-transport core goods in two years, reflecting irrational purchasing behavior [4] - The recent breakthrough in US-China Geneva talks, which includes a 91% reduction in bilateral tariffs, is expected to reshape inflation expectations and reduce import costs [4] Group 3 - The bond market is betting on a pause in June and a rate cut in July, indicating a collective vote for a "soft landing" narrative, while there is a stark contrast in long-term inflation expectations [5] - The current economic landscape presents a dual paradox where trade resolutions provide short-term inflation relief, but global supply chain restructuring is brewing new cost pressures [5] - The April CPI report serves as a litmus test for existing economic theories and a microscope for observing the restructuring of the global trade system [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article presents a book list for 2025, emphasizing the importance of reading classic works across various fields such as investment, history, and medicine, which can enhance cognitive understanding and provide insights during market noise [2]. Book Recommendations - **"Kangxi's Red Ticket"**: This book explores the interactions between Emperor Kangxi and Western missionaries, highlighting the complex relationships between the Qing Dynasty and the West in areas like science and diplomacy [2]. - **"Surely You're Joking, Mr. Feynman!"**: A non-typical autobiography of Richard Feynman, showcasing his curiosity and problem-solving approach through various anecdotes without complex formulas [6][8]. - **"The Little Book of Common Sense Investing"**: This classic guide by Professor Siegel analyzes over 200 years of stock trading in the U.S., comparing various investment products and offering strategic advice [8][10]. - **"Value Investing: From Graham to Buffett"**: This book systematically discusses the theory and practice of value investing, from Graham's foundational theories to Buffett's innovations, helping readers understand value principles and portfolio management [12][14]. - **"The Discovery of Thinking"**: This book delves into human decision-making processes, exploring biases and irrational behaviors that challenge traditional economic assumptions [15][17]. - **"Sorry, I Moved Your Brain"**: A collection of true stories from a neurosurgeon's perspective, discussing medical technology, ethics, and the emotional journey of doctors [19][21].

Core Insights - Daniel Kahneman, a Nobel laureate and father of behavioral economics, passed away on March 27, 2024, marking a significant loss in the field of economics and psychology [1][2][10] - His work challenged traditional economic theories by introducing concepts like "anchoring effect" and "loss aversion," emphasizing the imperfections of human decision-making [1][2][4] - Kahneman's book "Thinking, Fast and Slow" popularized the dual-system theory, explaining the interplay between intuitive (System 1) and rational (System 2) thinking [4][5][15] Summary by Sections Behavioral Economics Contributions - Kahneman's research highlighted the limitations of human rationality, showing that people often rely on quick, intuitive judgments rather than thorough analysis [15][17] - His findings suggest that while humans are not entirely irrational, they are prone to cognitive biases and emotional influences [17][18] Impact on AI and Technology - Kahneman's theories have influenced advancements in artificial intelligence, particularly in areas like reasoning chains and model training [7][8] - His dual-system theory serves as a foundational principle for understanding decision-making processes in AI [8] Legacy and Final Decision - Kahneman's decision to choose assisted dying was seen as consistent with his lifelong research on decision-making and the human experience [10][25][26] - His reflections on life and death reveal a deep understanding of the complexities of human emotions and the pursuit of happiness [26][28] Happiness Research - Kahneman's later work focused on the economics of happiness, proposing that income has a diminishing return on happiness after basic needs are met, with a threshold identified around $70,000 [19][20] - He emphasized the importance of memory in shaping perceptions of happiness, distinguishing between experiential self and remembering self [18][19] Final Reflections - Kahneman's last communications expressed a desire for a dignified end, reflecting his belief in the value of life while acknowledging the challenges of aging [26][28] - His insights into human behavior and decision-making continue to resonate, providing valuable lessons for both individuals and society [30]