2025 年 07 月 24 日 商 品 研 究 豆粕：减量替代担忧情绪影响，盘面下跌调整 豆一：跟随豆类市场回落调整 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2509 （元/吨） | 4217 +4（+0.09%） | 4193 | -36（-0.85%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2509 （元/吨） | 3095 +19 （+0.62%） | 3041 | -55（-1.78%） | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | -3.5（-0.34%） 1022.5 | | | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 285.6 -1.3（-0.45%） | | n a | | | | 豆粕 | （43%） | | | | | 2950～2980， 较昨+20至+30； 月M2509+20/+30/+60， 持平； 9月M2509+0， | 8月10日前 ...

Core Insights - Nanyang, located in southern Henan, has a strong foundation for biomass manufacturing and energy conversion, with over 30 million tons of biomass raw materials produced annually, including over 10 million tons of crop straw and over 10 million livestock [1] - The "2025 Nanyang Synthetic Biology Industry Conference" established the "Central Plains Synthetic Biology Industry-Academia-Research Innovation Alliance" and released the "Biomanufacturing Pilot Zone Action Plan" 1.0, aiming to develop a trillion-level synthetic biology industry cluster [1][5] - The synthetic biology industry in Nanyang has a solid demand foundation, with Muyuan, a leading pig farming company, driving the development of synthetic biology technology through cost reduction initiatives [1][3] Company Developments - In 2023, Muyuan partnered with Westlake University to establish the Nanyang Westlake Muyuan Synthetic Biology Research Institute and Muyuan Laboratory, focusing on producing small amino acids through synthetic biology technology [2] - Muyuan's production of synthetic biological products has commenced, with an annual output of 30,000 tons, promoting the industrialization of amino acid biosynthesis technology [2] Financial Performance - Muyuan's 2025 mid-year performance forecast indicates a net profit of 10.2 billion to 10.7 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 1129.97% to 1190.26% [3] - The company expects a non-net profit of 10.6 billion to 11.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 882.95% to 929.31% [3] - The significant increase in performance is attributed to a rise in pig output and a decrease in breeding costs, with the total cost of pig farming dropping from 13.1 yuan/kg at the beginning of the year to below 12.1 yuan/kg by June [3] Industry Trends - The application of synthetic biology technology in the livestock industry is just a small part of its potential, with future applications expected in materials, agricultural technology, food, and healthcare [4] - Nanyang is developing a comprehensive industrial support service system, focusing on energy integration and logistics to further reduce production costs [4][6] - The region aims to focus on key areas such as feed amino acid substitution, biomedicine, and bio-based materials, driving the entire industry chain upgrade through breakthroughs in synthetic biology [6]

Summary of Meihua Biological Conference Call Company Overview - Meihua Biological is a leading player in the amino acid industry, benefiting from domestic policies aimed at reducing soybean meal dependency and the growing demand for animal protein. Despite the current low industry sentiment, the company maintains strong cash flow and self-sustaining capabilities, solidifying its market position [2][4]. Key Developments - The company completed the acquisition of Xiehe Fermentation, which was below market expectations. This acquisition fills the gap in the pharmaceutical amino acid segment and adds new product lines, aiding in navigating overseas trade barriers and expanding its growth avenues [2][6]. - Meihua Biological emphasizes shareholder returns through dividends and ongoing buybacks, maintaining over 2 billion in buybacks and dividends annually for the past three years, supported by a disciplined capital expenditure strategy [2][7]. Product and Market Insights - The primary business focuses on amino acid products, including lysine, threonine, valine, and flavor enhancers like MSG, as well as xanthan gum. These products are widely used in various sectors, including animal nutrition, food flavor optimization, and medical nutrition [3][9]. - The amino acid industry is driven by domestic policies to reduce soybean import reliance and increasing consumer demand for animal protein. Although the industry is currently experiencing low sentiment, Meihua Biological continues to exhibit strong cash flow and self-sustaining capabilities [4]. Financial Performance - From 2020 to 2022, the company experienced rapid revenue and profit growth. However, due to falling corn prices, a decline in major product prices is expected in 2023-2024, leading to a revenue and profit adjustment. Nonetheless, sales growth is expected to offset revenue declines, with a significant net profit increase in Q1 of this year [5][11]. - The company anticipates being at the bottom of the industry cycle in 2024, with a recovery in mainstream amino acid product sentiment expected in the second half of the year. The projected P/E ratio for next year is around ten times, indicating a relatively high value and low-risk investment point [5][29]. Capacity Expansion Plans - The company added 600,000 tons of lysine capacity, expected to be operational by October this year. Plans for expanding threonine capacity are also in place, contingent on market conditions. Overall, the expansion pace is cautious, with continuous sales growth reinforcing its leading position [10][28]. Shareholder Returns and Capital Expenditure - Meihua Biological prioritizes shareholder returns, maintaining a buyback and dividend amount exceeding 2 billion annually, even during profit declines. The capital expenditure remains controlled, allowing for approximately 2 billion available for dividends [7][14]. - The company’s cash flow remains robust, with over 4.5 billion in annual net cash flow expected, despite a projected decline in net profit levels in 2024 [14]. Industry Trends and Demand - The amino acid industry is expected to grow due to increasing health and nutrition demands, with amino acid feed additives outpacing overall industrial feed growth. Policies aimed at reducing soybean meal usage are projected to decrease soybean demand significantly [16][17]. - The demand for lysine and threonine is expected to rise as alternatives to soybean meal are sought, although current profitability in the pig farming sector may limit immediate demand growth [18][20]. Competitive Landscape - The threonine market is highly concentrated, with the top four companies holding approximately 75% to 80% of the market share, allowing for strong pricing power. In contrast, the lysine market has many smaller players, leading to lower average profitability [20]. Future Outlook - Meihua Biological is expected to maintain a revenue growth rate of around 10% annually, with the industry entering a relatively stable phase with conditions for rebound [25][29]. - The company’s strategic acquisition of Xiehe Fermentation is anticipated to enhance its product offerings and market positioning, particularly in the pharmaceutical sector, which has higher profit margins compared to animal nutrition products [24][28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company plans to invest up to 3.3 billion RMB to build amino acid and supporting projects, increasing annual production capacity of threonine and MSG by 200,000 tons and 250,000 tons respectively [1][2] - The company's threonine and MSG production capacity is expected to rise from 268,000 tons and 420,000 tons in 2024 to 468,000 tons and 670,000 tons in 2027, enhancing its market share [1][2] - The report anticipates that the global threonine capacity and domestic MSG capacity will maintain a CR3 of over 80% by 2027, with the company’s market share projected to increase to 26% and 17% respectively [1][2] Summary by Sections Investment Overview - The project is located in Daqing, Heilongjiang, with a construction period of approximately 22 months and expected annual sales revenue of about 3.9 billion RMB upon reaching full capacity [2] - The company will finance the project through a mix of self-funding and bank loans, each accounting for about 50% [2] Market Conditions - The report notes that the prices for lysine and threonine have seen slight declines, but demand is expected to improve as the peak season approaches and due to the reduction in soybean meal usage [3] - The company’s corn deep processing project in Xinjiang, which includes small amino acid products, is progressing and is expected to contribute to future growth [3] Financial Projections - The report forecasts the company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be 1.32 billion, 1.41 billion, and 1.59 billion RMB respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 40%, 7%, and 12% [4] - The estimated EPS for the same period is projected to be 0.80, 0.85, and 0.96 RMB [4] - The target price is set at 9.60 RMB, with a PE ratio of 12 times for 2025, reflecting the company's early-stage project developments [4][8]

内容概况：受益于非洲猪瘟后禽肉替代效应释放、规模化养殖渗透率提高及饲料配方技术迭代，而肉禽 饲料占禽饲料总量的比重持续攀升至2024年的75.1%，反映出消费端禽肉需求增长对产业链上游的强力 牵引。当前产业技术层面中低蛋白日粮技术推广使豆粕用量下降，配合精准营养数据库建设，推动饲料 转化率提升与成本优化。数据显示，2024年肉禽饲料产量达9754.2万吨，占禽饲料总量75.1%。 关键词：肉禽饲料产量 肉禽饲料企业格局 肉禽饲料产业链 一、肉禽饲料产业发展概述 肉禽饲料是专门用于肉禽饲养的一类饲料，旨在提供动物所需的营养物质，以确保它们的生长、发育、 生殖和健康。按饲养对象不同，肉禽饲料可以分为鸡饲料、鸭饲料、鹅饲料等类型。我国肉禽饲料以高 能量高蛋白为核心，通过分阶段精准营养配比短期快速增重，普遍采用颗粒状成品饲料实现无间断集中 投喂，依赖抗生素与促生长剂缩短料肉比，同时运用酶制剂提升消化效率，生产周期聚焦42-47天出栏 的高效模式；相较之下，蛋禽饲料侧重钙磷动态平衡与蛋壳质量，以粉状配合饲料结合间隔投喂调节产 蛋率，通过益生菌和抗氧化剂替代抗生素维护肠道健康，生产周期长达72周以上，注重长期产蛋性能稳 ...

2025.05. 05 本文字数：2779，阅读时长大约4.5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 马晨晨 "我们观察到，目前国内的大豆贸易商与压榨企业正在加速转向巴西采购。仅4月的一周就预订40船 （约240万吨）巴西大豆，集中在5到7月交付。还有一部分企业因为进口成本上升压榨利润缩窄，转 向国产大豆压榨。最近黑龙江等地国产大豆与进口价差已经缩窄至627元/吨，这在一定程度上刺激了 替代需求。"陈义娟分析称。 近日美国农业部公布的数据显示，我国大豆采购量从4月10日当周的7.28万吨骤降至4月17日当周的 仅1800吨，降幅超97%。反观中国大豆市场则表现出较高的韧性。4月上旬，国内豆粕价格出现一轮 明显上涨行情，出厂均价累计涨幅达三成，此后在下旬从高点回落。农业农村部的最新监测数据显 示，4月的第四周，全国豆粕平均价格3.70元/公斤，同比下跌1.1%。预计今年中国大豆进口量为 9460万吨，较3月预测一致，整体市场价格仍在合理区间运行。 为何对外依存度较高的大豆市场能扛住这波"压力测试"？政策工具箱里又有哪些颇有成效的法宝？ 中华粮网易达研究院院长张智先告诉第一财经记者，替代、减量和增产是中国大豆市场维持健康发展 ...

Group 1 - The core strategies for maintaining a healthy development of China's soybean market are substitution, reduction, and increased production [1] - China's soybean imports from the US have drastically decreased due to tariffs, with imports dropping from 72,800 tons to only 1,800 tons in a week, a decline of over 97% [1] - Domestic soybean meal prices saw a significant increase of 30% in early April, although they later retreated [1] Group 2 - In March 2025, China's grain imports decreased by 54.1% year-on-year, with soybean imports at 3.503 million tons, a 36.8% drop, marking the lowest level in 17 years [2] - The decline in imports is attributed to delayed shipments from Brazil and the avoidance of US soybeans due to tariffs [2] - Domestic traders and crushing enterprises are increasingly turning to Brazilian soybeans, with 40 ships (approximately 2.4 million tons) booked for delivery between May and July [2] Group 3 - In 2024, China imported 22.13 million tons of US soybeans, a decrease of 5.7%, while imports from Brazil rose to 74.65 million tons, an increase of 6.7% [3] - The share of US soybeans in China's imports has fallen to 21%, while Brazil's share has risen to 71% [3] Group 4 - Brazilian soybeans have advantages over US soybeans in terms of price, quality, and supply, with a landed price of approximately $420 per ton compared to $451 for US soybeans [4] - Brazil's soybean production is expected to reach a record high of 169 million tons, solidifying its position as the world's largest exporter [4] - The reliance on Brazilian soybeans may pose risks due to seasonal supply concentration and the high involvement of US capital in Brazil's soybean industry [4] Group 5 - China's soybean market has a high dependency on imports, with a self-sufficiency rate of only 20% [6] - The government is promoting measures to increase domestic soybean production without expanding arable land, focusing on improving yield through technology and policy support [6] - The domestic soybean consumption structure is changing, with approximately 13 million tons of edible soybeans being fully met by domestic production, while over 100 million tons for oil and feed rely heavily on imports [7] Group 6 - The Ministry of Agriculture has launched a plan to reduce feed grain consumption, aiming for a 7% reduction in feed consumption per kilogram of animal product by 2030 [8] - Feed companies are proactively adopting measures to reduce soybean meal usage, with New Hope and Muyuan adopting low-soy diets to enhance feed economics [9] - The National Development and Reform Commission has indicated that the impact of reduced imports from the US on China's grain supply will be minimal due to the availability of domestic reserves [9]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 2.178 billion yuan for FY2024, a year-on-year increase of 12%, but a net profit attributable to shareholders of 190 million yuan, a decrease of 58% compared to the previous year [1] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 687 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 51 million yuan, down 41% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - FY2024 revenue from the amino acids and vitamins segment was 1.5 billion yuan and 200 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of +3% and -5% [1] - The gross profit margin for amino acids was 30%, down 13.3 percentage points year-on-year, while for vitamins it was 21%, down 34.3 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The sales volume of amino acids reached 97,123 tons, a year-on-year increase of 26%, which was the main reason for revenue growth [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The price of valine has been under pressure, with a current price of 15 yuan/kg, a 10% increase quarter-on-quarter, but still at a low level [1] - The price spread has expanded to 9,218 yuan/ton, a 22% increase quarter-on-quarter [1] - The potential rise in domestic soybean prices due to escalating China-US tariff tensions may accelerate the reduction of soybean meal, which could benefit valine prices in the medium to long term [1] Group 3: Product Development - The company is increasing investment in new product development, achieving breakthroughs in 1,3-propanediol (PDO), succinic acid, tryptophan, and arginine [2] - The company’s PDO project is expected to benefit from accelerated domestic substitution due to trade tensions, as DuPont is a major manufacturer of PDO [2] - Future projects include the establishment of production facilities for various amino acids, which will enhance product structure and market competitiveness [2] Group 4: Investment Outlook - The company is projected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 290 million yuan, 460 million yuan, and 530 million yuan for the years 2025 to 2027 respectively [3] - The company has received a "recommended" rating for its investment potential [4]

盈利预测与估值：我们预测公司25-27 年实现营业收入272.3、299.1、308.1 亿元，同比+8.6%、+9.8%、 +3.0%；实现归母净利润30.4、33.4、36.1 亿元，同比+10.9%、+10.0%、+8.0%，对应PE 分别为10、 9、9 倍，维持"强烈推荐"评级。 风险提示：豆粕价格大幅波动；原材料成本上涨；产品价格波动等 关税摩擦背景下公司业绩有望有益于豆粕涨价预期。中国大豆严重依赖进口，其中进口自美国大豆占比 约为21%，随着中美关税摩擦升温可能导致国内大豆价格上涨进而利多豆粕价格。同时，随着国家豆粕 减量替代工作推进，豆粕价格上涨有望加速替代进程，促进氨基酸产品需求增长。并且公司大原料副产 品业务利润跟随豆粕和玉米价格，因此豆粕价格上涨有利于公司业绩释放。 持续推进分红+回购，公司兼具防御属性。2024 年度公司计划实施现金分红和回购金额合计22.7 亿元， 占年度归属于上市公司股东净利润的比例82.84%。公司持续推进回购措施，截至2025 年3 月底，公司 通过集中竞价交易方式回购股份3571 万股，占公司总股本的1.25%，支付总额为3.52 亿元。 事件：公司发布202 ...