证券研究报告 | 宏观专题研究 | 中国宏观 延续适度宽松，更加强调"以我为主" ——2025 年 Q4 货币政策执行报告解读 核心观点 2026 年 2 月 10 日，人民银行发布《2025 年第四季度中国货币政策执行报告》，我们认 为货币政策报告核心要点有：①延续适度宽松基调，更加强调"以我为主"；②财政金 融协同支持扩内需，重点关注再贷款+财政贴息&风险共担，而非购债；③重点关注绿 色金融，从做大规模转向做强机制；④从资管产品+银行存款合并视角看流动性总量， 单纯用传统存款派生框架容易误读流动性松紧；⑤支持个人高效便捷重塑信用。 对于后续货币政策，预计 2026 年有 25-50BP 降准、10BP 降息的总量性宽松操作，节 奏上预计小步慢跑，频度不会太高。此外预计结构性政策工具也将持续发力，同步强 化信贷的结构性引导，扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等领域是重点支持方向。 ❑ 一、延续适度宽松基调，更加强调"以我为主" 央行在三季度下一阶段主要思路里强调"实施好适度宽松…保持社融条件相对宽 松"，并且在同一段落中单列提示"密切关注海外主要央行货币政策变化"。四季 度央行同样提及"继续实施好适度宽松"，但 ...

Core Viewpoint - The central bank's report emphasizes the need to support domestic demand and ensure a good start for the "14th Five-Year Plan" amidst increasing external uncertainties and inflation risks [2][15]. Economic Situation Analysis - The report highlights deepening impacts of external environmental changes, with a focus on the uncertainty of inflation trends and monetary policy adjustments [2][15]. - It stresses the importance of strengthening domestic circulation and expanding domestic demand to maintain economic stability and growth [2][15]. Policy Tone - The report continues to advocate for a moderately loose monetary policy, emphasizing the flexible and efficient use of various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions [3][16]. - It introduces the goal of promoting low financing costs for society and ensuring the health of the banking system [3][16]. Key Issues - The report discusses three types of fiscal and financial coordination measures to support domestic demand: maintaining ample liquidity, using re-loans with fiscal subsidies, and enhancing credit guarantees [4][17]. - It notes that the total assets of asset management products reached 120 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, reflecting a 13.1% year-on-year growth, primarily directed towards interbank deposits and certificates of deposit [4][17]. Specialized Topics - The report emphasizes the need for optimizing carbon reduction support tools and advancing carbon finance product innovation to support green finance [5][17]. - It outlines the implementation of a one-time credit repair policy, which is expected to positively impact individuals, financial institutions, and the broader economy [5][17].

货币政策执行报告 2026 年 02 月 11 日 聚焦内需，聚力开局 ——2025 年四季度货币政策执行报告解读 事件：2026 年 2 月 10 日，央行发布 2025 年四季度货币政策执行报告（以下简称《报告》）。 经济形势分析：外部通胀走势和货币政策调整存在不确定性；要支持"十五五"实现良好开局 外部形势判断上，《报告》突出强调"外部环境变化影响加深"，新增"通胀走势与货币政策 调整存在不确定性"表述，体现央行对四季度以来国际环境复杂性的担忧加剧。相较三季度报 告"外部不稳定不确定性因素较多，国际经济贸易秩序遇到严峻挑战"的表述，四季度报告更 聚焦贸易秩序变化对全球通胀及货币政策的深层影响。 国内经济形势评估上，《报告》更侧重内需，提出"把做强国内大循环摆到更加突出的位置"， 新增"支持'十五五'实现良好开局"，凸显政策层对经济开局的重视。《报告》同时强调着 力扩大内需、巩固经济稳中向好势头，并重申疏通政策传导、保持银行体系自身健康性。 政策基调：继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具。 货币政策基调上，《报告》延续"适度宽松的货币政策"，重申对物价的重视与"灵活高效运 用降 ...

Group 1: Insurance and Investment - Insurance capital is increasingly participating in private equity funds, with companies like Tianjin Lanqin Equity Investment Partnership being established and major insurers like Taikang Life involved as partners [1] - Since 2026, leading insurers such as China Life and Xinhua Insurance have launched new projects in private equity, driven by a policy environment encouraging long-term investments [1] - The need for asset-liability matching in a low-interest-rate environment is pushing insurers to seek private equity investments to enhance long-term returns [1] Group 2: Market Trends and Investor Sentiment - Over 60% of private equity firms plan to heavily invest in A-shares as the Spring Festival approaches, with an average estimated position of 75.68% during the holiday [2] - Public funds are increasingly accumulating positions in the consumer sector, with notable fund managers investing significantly in leading pet companies, indicating a rebound in consumer stocks [3] Group 3: Bond Market Developments - The yield on 10-year government bonds has fallen below 1.8%, indicating a return of the bond market's safe-haven attributes amid improved liquidity and insurance capital allocation [4] - The bond market is experiencing a structural recovery, with differing opinions on the potential for further interest rate declines [4] Group 4: Private Equity Growth - The number of private equity firms managing over 10 billion yuan has reached a record high of 122, with 10 new firms entering this category since December 2025 [5] Group 5: Monetary Policy and Financing - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the continued implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy, utilizing various tools to maintain liquidity and favorable financing conditions [6] Group 6: Corporate Financing and Regulations - New refinancing regulations have been introduced to support quality listed companies and enhance the flexibility of financing for technology innovation enterprises [7] - Many listed companies are actively exploring refinancing opportunities to strengthen their core competitiveness [7] Group 7: Local Government Debt Management - Local governments are making significant progress in clearing hidden debts, with at least 34 cities reporting advancements in their debt clearance tasks since 2026 [8] Group 8: IPO Market Improvements - The quality of IPO applications in the A-share market has improved significantly, with stricter regulations leading to better compliance and transparency among applicants [9] Group 9: Robotics Industry Developments - The humanoid robotics sector is accelerating its capital market activities, with several companies initiating IPO processes as the industry transitions from technology validation to commercialization [10] Group 10: Housing Market Policies - Various cities, including Chongqing, are implementing policies to stimulate housing consumption, such as providing subsidies and enhancing loan support for homebuyers [11] Group 11: Telecommunications Infrastructure - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has set a timeline for enhancing low-altitude communication networks, with major telecom companies actively preparing for this development [12][13]

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu province is focusing on optimizing financial services for the private economy, which has contributed nearly 8 trillion yuan to the regional GDP since the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan, accounting for nearly 60% of the total [1] Group 1: Financial Service Optimization - The measures address key issues in financial services for private enterprises, focusing on improving the financial service system, multi-channel financing, and enhancing support for struggling businesses [2] - A dual approach of online and offline services will be implemented to create a "fast track" for financing, with an emphasis on digital transformation and AI integration in financial services [2][3] - By 2025, the provincial government aims to help 89,000 enterprises secure credit amounting to 613.6 billion yuan through the comprehensive financial service platform [2] Group 2: Coverage of Enterprise Lifecycle - The measures aim to provide financial services that cover the entire lifecycle of enterprises, promoting various financing tools such as equity financing, bond issuance, and financial product diversification [4] - In 2025, all newly listed companies in Jiangsu are expected to be private enterprises, with a significant increase in the issuance of corporate bonds [4] Group 3: Innovative Financing Mechanisms - The measures encourage financial institutions to innovate credit products and promote mechanisms like investment-loan linkage and patent commercialization [5] - A coordinated financial service mechanism will be established to guide banks in setting annual service goals for private enterprises [5] Group 4: Support and Relief for Private Enterprises - The measures emphasize the importance of financial support during challenging times, with a focus on enhancing coordination among financial, judicial, and industry management sectors [6] - In 2025, the provincial government plans to provide at least 100 billion yuan in new financing for private enterprises and support 10,000 new borrowers [3][6] Group 5: Credit Repair and Stability - The measures include provisions for supporting financial credit repair for enterprises, aiming to restore confidence in the market [7] - Continuous support for private enterprises is a priority, with initiatives to expand first-time loans and improve the quality of credit loans [7]

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu province is focusing on optimizing financial services for the private economy, which contributes nearly 60% to the regional GDP, through a set of measures aimed at enhancing financing channels and support for private enterprises [1] Group 1: Financing Channels and Services - The measures address key challenges in financial services for private enterprises, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive financial service system and multi-channel financing options [2] - A dual approach of online and offline services will be implemented to create a "fast track" for financing, with a focus on digital transformation and AI integration in financial services [2] - By 2025, the provincial government aims to help 89,000 enterprises secure credit amounting to 613.6 billion yuan [2] Group 2: Support for Private Enterprises - The measures include establishing financial service points for private enterprises, with a goal of providing at least 100 billion yuan in new financing and serving 10,000 new private loan clients by 2026 [3] - The government plans to enhance the availability of financial services by promoting a financial advisor system and improving feedback mechanisms for service requests [3] Group 3: Financial Product Diversification - The measures aim to diversify financial products to meet the needs of private enterprises throughout their lifecycle, including support for equity financing and bond issuance [4] - By 2025, all new A-share listed companies in Jiangsu are expected to be private enterprises, with a significant increase in the issuance of corporate bonds [4] Group 4: Financial Support and Risk Mitigation - The measures emphasize the importance of financial support during challenging times, with a focus on coordinating efforts across financial, judicial, and industry management sectors [6] - A comprehensive policy framework has been established to support private enterprises, including interest subsidy policies and direct financial support mechanisms [6] - The provincial government has allocated 4.6 billion yuan in financial resources to leverage over 600 billion yuan in financial support for private enterprises [6] Group 5: Credit Repair and Stability - The measures include initiatives for financial credit repair for enterprises, aiming to restore confidence among private businesses [7] - Continuous support for small and micro private enterprises is prioritized, with policies aimed at expanding first-time loans and improving credit loan quality [7]

报告还以专栏文章形式，探讨了存款增速回落、合理看待流动性总量、财政金融协同等热点话题。 要点速览： ——货币政策工具：灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具。 ——利率：促进社会综合融资成本低位运行。 ——汇率：保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。 ——银行存款与资管产品：2025年三季度，居民存款增速高位有所回落，各方关注增多，出现了关于银 行存款"流失"的探讨。过去一年资管类产品规模则增长较快。从资管产品与银行存款合并角度来看待这 些现象，可以更好观察金融体系流动性状况。 引导金融总量合理增长 关于下一阶段货币政策，报告明确，继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策。把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理 回升作为货币政策的重要考量，根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况，把握好政策实施的力 度、节奏和时机。 央行2月10日发布的2025年第四季度中国货币政策执行报告明确了下一阶段货币政策主要思路。报告明 确，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保持流动性充裕和社会融资条件相对宽松。 业内专家表示，"再贷款+财政贴息"方式，把央行再贷款工具与财政贴息政策结合。再贷款通过激励金 融机构，从供给端引导信贷投向；财政贴息通过补贴 ...

Monetary Policy Overview - The central bank's report emphasizes the flexible and efficient use of various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions to maintain ample liquidity and relatively loose social financing conditions [1][2] - The report highlights the importance of aligning social financing scale and money supply growth with economic growth and price level expectations [2] Interest Rate Management - The report outlines plans to further improve the interest rate adjustment framework, strengthen the guidance of central bank policy rates, and enhance the market-based interest rate formation and transmission mechanism [2] - The goal is to lower bank funding costs and promote low-level operation of comprehensive social financing costs [2] Exchange Rate Stability - The report calls for maintaining the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, using a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand [2] - It emphasizes the need to strengthen expectations management and prevent excessive fluctuations in the exchange rate [2] Financial Structure and Support - The report discusses the implementation of structural monetary policy tools to support key areas such as expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and micro enterprises [2][3] - It highlights the collaboration between fiscal and monetary policies to enhance financial support for these sectors [4][5] Asset Management Products and Deposits - The report notes a decline in the growth rate of household deposits in Q3 2025, while asset management products have seen rapid growth, indicating a shift in financial asset allocation [8][9] - The total assets of asset management products reached 120 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 13.1% [8] Liquidity Assessment - The report suggests that combining asset management products with bank deposits provides a better perspective for assessing the liquidity conditions of the financial system [9][10] - The total liquidity indicator, which aggregates various liquid financial instruments, showed a year-on-year growth of approximately 8.1% by the end of 2025, indicating stable growth trends [10]

Core Insights - The current fiscal and monetary policies are in a "honeymoon period," with a strong emphasis on "fiscal-financial coordination" to enhance overall policy effectiveness [2] - Protecting bank net interest margins is a core goal of monetary policy, with a focus on lowering bank funding costs and maintaining favorable credit interest rates [3] - Maintaining low volatility in the bond market is a desirable market objective, with measures to balance government bond supply and demand [4] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The report highlights the importance of fiscal and monetary policy coordination, stating that monetary policy has an "indirect incentive effect" while fiscal policy has a "direct incentive effect" [2] - The report indicates that the net investment of 5 trillion yuan through reverse repos and MLF in 2025 will effectively supplement the medium- and long-term funding gap [3] Insurance Sector - The insurance sector is expanding its balance sheet as a result of counter-cyclical policies, with premium income projected at 6.1 trillion yuan in 2025, a 7.4% year-on-year increase, while total assets are expected to grow by 15.1% [4] Industry Focus - The report emphasizes the importance of the consumer and pharmaceutical sectors, particularly the "online retail industry" and the pharmaceutical industry's core competitiveness [5] - The pharmaceutical sector is expected to enhance its international competitiveness through cross-border R&D cooperation and overseas clinical trials [5] Asset Management and Banking - The report discusses the shift of deposits from banks to non-bank financial institutions, indicating a trend where asset management products and bank deposits exhibit a "mutual exclusion" dynamic [5] - It is noted that the differentiation among banks is significant, with smaller banks facing challenges in attracting deposits due to lack of recognition from non-bank buyers [6] Market Trends - The report mentions the recent issuance of convertible bonds, with a notable 8 billion yuan issuance by Zhongke Zhuguang, reflecting changes in the supply-demand structure of the convertible bond market [8][9] - The report highlights the performance of the Hong Kong innovation drug sector, which saw a significant rebound, driven by strategic partnerships and market dynamics [24][31]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles is the introduction of a series of financial policies by the Guangdong government aimed at stimulating private investment and consumer spending, including interest subsidies and guarantees for small and medium-sized enterprises [1][4] - Guangdong has established a strategic emerging industry investment guidance fund with a total scale of 100 billion yuan, aiming to create a long-term investment policy system to support the modernization of the industrial system [2][3] - The interest subsidy policy for manufacturing and high-tech enterprises allows for a maximum subsidy of 20 million yuan per year, covering registered manufacturing enterprises and valid high-tech enterprises in Guangdong [3] Group 2 - The policies are designed to create a comprehensive support system that integrates central and local government efforts, focusing on manufacturing and high-tech sectors while ensuring a complete coverage of the investment chain [4] - The collaboration between provincial guidance funds and central subsidy and guarantee plans forms a three-pronged support system, addressing the challenges of early and small investments while reducing debt costs for enterprises [4] - The implementation mechanisms, such as quarterly disbursements and streamlined processes, are aligned with central government initiatives to enhance the efficiency of policy execution and improve the experience of market participants [4]