Group 1 - The precious metals sector surged nearly 7% on October 13, with notable stocks like Western Gold and Zhaojin Gold experiencing significant gains [1] - Spot gold reached a historical high of $4,078 per ounce, while spot silver increased by over 2% to $51.71 per ounce [1] - Domestic gold jewelry prices exceeded 1,190 RMB per gram, with major brands adjusting their prices upwards [1][2] Group 2 - The precious metals index has increased by over 113% this year, outperforming the broader market [3] - Stocks such as Zhaojin Gold and Western Gold have seen their prices double, with Zhaojin Gold up by 254.66% and Western Gold by 187.34% [4] - Hunan Gold had the smallest increase among the listed companies, with a rise of 49.21% [4]

Group 1 - The precious metals sector surged nearly 7% on October 13, with notable stocks like Western Gold, Zhaojin Gold, and others experiencing significant gains [2] - Spot gold reached a historical high of $4,078 per ounce, while spot silver increased over 2% to $51.71 per ounce [2] - Huatai Futures research team indicated that renewed tariff risks and ongoing expectations for monetary easing are driving gold prices to new highs [2] Group 2 - The U.S. government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data, which is perceived as a significant fiscal risk, prompting the market to seek safe-haven assets, thus boosting gold prices [2] - There remains strong uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path, but the market leans towards a potential cut in October, providing further support for gold [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [3] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [3] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [4] - Options: Put on hold [4] Core View of the Report - The resurgence of tariff risks and the continuation of easing expectations have jointly pushed the gold price to continuously hit new historical highs. The U.S. federal government shutdown, although causing the delay of important economic data releases, is itself regarded as an obvious manifestation of fiscal risks, prompting the market to seek safe-haven assets and boosting the gold price. The uncertainty of the Fed's interest rate cut path remains high, but the market still expects a rate cut in October, which also supports the gold price. The silver price is currently strong, hitting a new historical high. There is a need to repair the gold-silver price ratio. However, due to the relatively large volatility of silver, more attention should be paid to position control and strict stop-loss execution when operating [3]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Macroeconomic Aspects - In the week of October 10, 2025, gold and silver continued their strong performance. U.S. President Trump announced that starting from November 1, a new 100% tariff would be imposed on Chinese imports, an additional part on top of the existing paid tariffs. The U.S. will also implement export controls on "all key software" on the same day, significantly increasing tariff risks. The bill proposed by the U.S. Republicans to end the government shutdown failed to obtain enough votes in the Senate, and the overall U.S. fiscal risk remains prominent. The minutes of the September FOMC meeting showed that there were increasing differences within the Fed regarding the future interest rate cut path. Although most officials supported further rate cuts this year, 7 officials believed that no further cuts were needed, and only Fed Governor Milan supported a larger 50-basis-point cut. The market has strengthened the pricing of a rate cut in October, with the Fedwatch showing a 98.3% probability of a 25-basis-point cut in October [1]. Fundamental Aspects - In the week of October 10, 2025, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 70,728 kilograms from the previous week, while silver warehouse receipts decreased by 23,221 kilograms to 1,169,061 kilograms. In the Comex inventory, this week's Comex gold inventory decreased by 170,212.58 ounces to 39,940,669.57 ounces, and Comex silver inventory decreased by 9,409,653.79 ounces to 522,463,797.41 ounces. In the precious metal ETFs, in the week of October 10 (currently the latest), the gold SPDR ETF holdings increased by 2.28 tons to 1,017.16 tons, and the silver SLV ETF holdings increased by 274.06 tons to 15,444 tons. As of September 23, 2025, in terms of CFTC positions, the net long speculative positions in gold increased by 0.13% to 266,749 contracts, and the net long positions in silver increased by 1.43% to 52,276 contracts. In the week of October 10, 2025, the CSI 300 Index fell by 0.51% from the previous week, the electronic components sector index related to precious metals fell by 2.49%, and the photovoltaic sector fell by 0.05%. As of September 29, 2025 (the latest), the photovoltaic price index was reported at 15.74, up 0.01 from the previous period. As of September 15, 2025, the photovoltaic manager index was reported at 119.66, a month-on-month decrease of 5.43 [2]. Strategy - Gold: Cautiously bullish. The resurgence of tariff risks and the continuation of easing expectations jointly push the gold price to continuously hit new historical highs. The U.S. federal government shutdown, although causing the delay of important economic data releases, is itself regarded as an obvious manifestation of fiscal risks, prompting the market to seek safe-haven assets and boosting the gold price. The uncertainty of the Fed's interest rate cut path remains high, but the market still expects a rate cut in October, which also supports the gold price [3]. - Silver: Cautiously bullish. The silver price is currently strong, hitting a new historical high. There is a need to repair the gold-silver price ratio. However, due to the relatively large volatility of silver, more attention should be paid to position control and strict stop-loss execution when operating [3]. - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [4]. - Options: Put on hold [4].

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected victory of Takashi Sannae in the Liberal Democratic Party presidential election has led to a trend of yen depreciation in the foreign exchange market, with the yen falling to the 152 yen per dollar range, raising concerns about potential further depreciation [2][6]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following Takashi's election, several foreign financial institutions retracted their "buy yen" recommendations, citing increased uncertainty regarding the timing of the next Bank of Japan interest rate hike [4]. - Speculative funds that had previously bet on yen appreciation were forced to close some of their long positions, resulting in the yen's decline to the mid-150 yen per dollar range [6]. Group 2: Economic Policy Implications - Takashi is viewed as a successor to the "Abenomics" approach, which combines financial and fiscal policies, leading to expectations of a weaker yen [6]. - Predictions suggest that the yen's depreciation may be limited to around 155 yen per dollar, influenced by fiscal policy scenarios and the relationship between long-term bond yields and the yen exchange rate [8][10]. Group 3: Fiscal Policy and Bond Yields - If Takashi implements her proposed fiscal measures, such as gasoline tax cuts and additional tax rebates, the 30-year bond yield could rise by approximately 0.15%, potentially increasing the term premium and affecting the yen's value [8]. - The term premium has been rising, with a noted correlation between the increase in the term premium and the depreciation of the yen, particularly during the recent upper house elections [7]. Group 4: Future Considerations - The market is closely watching the appointment of the next Japanese finance minister, as changes in government could impact fiscal policy direction and the yen's trajectory [11]. - There is a prevailing sentiment that extreme yen depreciation is unlikely, as Takashi is perceived to distance herself from excessive fiscal expansion, supported by comments from her close associates [10].

Core Viewpoint - The OECD has revised its global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3.2%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous June forecast, driven by AI-related investments in the US and fiscal stimulus in China [2][4]. Economic Growth Forecasts - The OECD predicts a global economic growth rate of 3.3% for 2024, slowing to 3.2% in 2025 and further to 2.9% in 2026 [4]. - For the US, the growth forecast for 2025 is set at 1.8%, up by 0.2 percentage points, but down from 2.8% in 2024. High tariffs and reduced immigration are offsetting the effects of strong high-tech investments [6]. - The Eurozone's growth forecast has been raised by 0.2 percentage points to 1.2%, with current policy rates at 2%, half of the peak rates from 2023-2024 [6]. - China's growth forecast for 2025 is adjusted to 4.9%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points, expected to remain stable compared to 2024's 5% [6]. - Japan's growth forecast has been increased by 0.4 percentage points to 1.1%, supported by strong corporate earnings and investment growth [6]. Economic Risks - The OECD highlights that fiscal risks, including rising defense spending and aging population costs, are concerns for the global economy. Increased government bond yields are also seen as evidence of rising future risks for investors [6].

Core Viewpoint - The cost of borrowing in the UK for 30-year bonds has reached its highest level since 1998, while the British pound has fallen over 1%, indicating growing investor concerns about the UK's fiscal capacity [1] Group 1: Borrowing Costs and Currency Impact - The increase in borrowing costs is influenced by a sell-off in other major bond markets, but the focus on the UK's weak fiscal situation is evident from the simultaneous decline in the pound and UK government bonds [1] - Jane Foley, head of foreign exchange strategy, noted that while the Bank of England's anticipated adjustments provided some support for the pound last month, the upcoming autumn budget poses fiscal risks that could negatively impact the currency [1]

Group 1 - Craig Vardy, head of fixed income at BlackRock Australia, suggests that Australian government bonds may outperform U.S. Treasuries as the market digests fiscal risks affecting long-term bonds [1] - The pricing of long-term U.S. Treasuries will likely include more term premium due to issuance and fiscal risks, while the Reserve Bank of Australia may continue to lower interest rates [1] - The yield on Australian 10-year government bonds is approximately 20 basis points lower than that of U.S. Treasuries, indicating a potential lower bound for the spread [1] Group 2 - If the yield on Australian bonds exceeds that of U.S. Treasuries by about 10 basis points, there may be a resurgence in trading activity [1] - The correlation between Australian 10-year government bonds and U.S. Treasuries is expected to remain high, with no significant decoupling anticipated in the future [1]

Core Viewpoint - The agreement between the US and Japan is expected to increase fiscal risks for Japan, leading to pressure on the Japanese bond market [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - Japanese stock market has risen due to the US-Japan trade agreement, while the bond market perceives increased fiscal risks [1] - The Japanese government has committed to invest $550 billion in the US, which may negatively impact Japan's credit and drag down the yen and the economy [1] Group 2: Government and Fiscal Policy - The weakening of the ruling coalition may lead to compromises with opposition parties, potentially resulting in a reduction of the consumption tax and increased cash handouts [1] - Demand for 40-year Japanese government bonds at this week's auction reached the lowest level since 2011, indicating market avoidance due to fiscal risks [1] Group 3: Economic Implications - Prolonged high yields could increase the financing costs for the Japanese government amid ongoing economic uncertainty [1]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of the US-Japan trade agreement has led to a temporary strengthening of the Japanese yen, but concerns over Japan's fiscal outlook may lead to renewed pressure on both the yen and Japanese government bonds [1] Group 1: Trade Agreement Impact - The 15% tariff rate from the trade agreement is perceived as an ideal outcome by the market, contributing to the initial strength of the yen [1] Group 2: Fiscal Outlook - The focus is shifting back to Japan's fiscal prospects, which may undermine the yen and government bonds as the market has already partially priced in the expectations of the trade agreement [1] - Increased government spending is expected to continue to suppress the yen's exchange rate [1]

Core Viewpoint - The trade agreement between the US and Japan presents mixed implications for the Japanese stock market, with potential benefits for the automotive sector but long-term risks related to capital outflow and currency depreciation [1] Group 1: Impact on Automotive Sector - The automotive sector has already absorbed expectations of a 25% tariff since April, indicating that the market is somewhat prepared for tariff changes [1] - A reduction in tariffs could improve profit expectations and significantly boost stock prices in this sector [1] Group 2: Long-term Economic Concerns - The $550 billion investment commitment may lead to capital outflow, which could weaken the yen and increase government bond yields [1] - Rising fiscal risks are expected to put pressure on the stock market in the long run [1]