Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the Euro, revising the forecast higher to 1.25 in 12 months from 1.20, suggesting a buy recommendation for a 6-month EUR/USD digital call option at 1.25 with a risk-reward ratio of 1.35 for approximately 7.3% [2][10][12]. Core Insights - The US Dollar has experienced a decline of about 6% this year, reversing its previous gains, and the report suggests that this depreciation trend is likely to continue due to slowing economic performance and skepticism regarding foreign investment in US assets [10][13][26]. - The report highlights the potential end of the easing cycle for the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), indicating that after a series of rate cuts, the RBI has signaled limited space for further monetary support, with inflation forecasts adjusted accordingly [5][37]. - The report discusses the implications of fiscal risks on the Dollar, noting that while higher yields have been accepted as compensation for holding US debt, concerns about fiscal sustainability may lead to a weaker Dollar and higher yields in the future [20][26]. Summary by Sections Euro Forecast - The forecast for EUR/USD has been adjusted to 1.17, 1.20, and 1.25 over the next 3, 6, and 12 months respectively, reflecting a more bullish outlook [12][13]. - A digital call option for EUR/USD at 1.25 is recommended, with a maximum payout of 13.7 times the premium paid [14]. US Dollar Analysis - The report notes that the broad Dollar has fallen approximately 6% this year, with a stable performance against other developed market currencies over the past six weeks [10][13]. - The report suggests that the current adjustment in the Dollar's value is more indicative of a transitional phase rather than a definitive end to its depreciation [10][13]. RBI and Indian Market Insights - The RBI has cut policy rates by 100 basis points in the current cycle, indicating a likely end to the easing cycle, with inflation expected to rise to around 4.5% by mid-2026 [5][37]. - The report emphasizes the importance of liquidity and credit growth, noting that the RBI may maintain rates unless there is a significant slowdown in growth [37][38]. Singapore Dollar Strategy - The report recommends shorting the Singapore Dollar nominal effective exchange rate (SGDNEER) via options, given the low likelihood of the Monetary Authority of Singapore widening the trading band [28][32]. - The strategy is based on the expectation of a major USD rebound and the current large front-end rate differential between USD and SGD [32][33].

经济合作与发展组织(OECD)再次大幅下调全球经济增长预测，将矛头直指特朗普的贸易政策，这场关 税风暴正将世界经济拖入下行通道，而美国自己却成了最大的受害者之一。 周二，这家总部位于巴黎的组织今年第二次下调全球经济预测，将2025年全球经济增长率从此前的 3.3%大幅调降至2.9%。 更令人震惊的是，美国经济增长预期遭遇"腰斩"，从2.8%暴跌至1.6%——这一数字远低于OECD在3月 份的预测。 该组织还警告，即使经济活动疲软的影响将超过支出削减和关税收入，美国预算赤字仍将进一步扩大。 更令投资者担忧的是，OECD预测美国通胀率今年将走高，这意味着美联储可能要到2026年才会重新开 始降息。如果消费者价格预期脱锚，这一进程甚至可能彻底脱轨。 贸易缓和成唯一出路，但效果滞后 OECD首席经济学家Alvaro Pereira警告道： 经济前景的恶化将波及全球，几乎没有例外，增长放缓和贸易萎缩将冲击收入并拖累就业增 长。 美国自食其果，政策组合拳重创本土经济 OECD的评估揭示了一个残酷现实：特朗普的政策已成为全球经济面临的最紧迫威胁，且短期内看不到 解决方案。更糟糕的是，美国贸易伙伴的报复性措施、信心进一步恶化 ...

全球债市28日又迎"煤矿中的金丝雀"时刻，40年期日债拍卖投标倍数创去年7月来新低。财政困境结构 性问题不除，日债美债动荡就难以轻易结束。 40年期日债拍卖投标倍数创去年7月来新低 过去几周来，全球债券收益率一直在稳步上升，而上周，由于投资者对主要发达经济体（尤其是日本和 美国）债务水平的担忧日益加剧，以及日本人寿保险公司等超长日本国债传统买家的需求减弱，日债、 美债的抛售压力突然加剧。在27日短暂喘息后，日债市场28日又面临40年期债券拍卖考验。上周的20年 期日债拍卖需求创下十多年来最弱水平，导致收益率飙升至创纪录高点。 在28日拍卖前，市场就已提前计价。40年期日本国债收益率上涨8个基点至3.365%，30年期日债收益率 攀升5个基点至2.88%，20年期收益率在前一交易日跌至约三周低点后涨7个基点至2.45%。上周，30年 期和40年期日债收益率分别创下3.185%和3.675%的历史新高，20年期日债收益率也创下2.60%的数十年 新高。 最终，40年期日债拍卖认购倍数为2.2，低于上次的2.9，为2024年11月来最低需求水平；投标倍数为 2.21，创2024年7月以来新低，最高得标收益率为3.1 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs reports that global long-term bonds are under pressure, with Japan's 30-year government bond yields continuing to rise, while U.S. fiscal issues remain a concern [1] - The recent soft performance of 20 to 40-year Japanese government bonds is seen as localized, reflecting technical factors, which reduces the urgency for policy adjustments [1][6] - In the context of rising global inflation and high fiscal deficits, Goldman believes that the spillover risks from the sell-off of Japanese long-term bonds are unlikely to dissipate quickly [1][10] Group 2 - The recent market dynamics are driven more by weak demand rather than the scale of deficits, with concerns heightened by Moody's credit rating downgrade and fiscal proposals in the U.S. Congress [2] - Goldman notes that the risks facing U.S. Treasury bonds are more related to a lack of stabilizing forces for overall fiscal trajectories amid declining demand for U.S. assets globally [2][3] - The 20-year U.S. Treasury bonds are particularly sensitive to signals of sustained weak demand, performing poorly relative to 10-year and 30-year bonds [5] Group 3 - A weak auction of 20-year Japanese government bonds has triggered significant price declines, continuing a trend of volatility since April, influenced by fiscal concerns and ongoing quantitative easing [6][10] - The long-term price trends of Japanese government bonds are primarily affected by technical factors, including macro position adjustments and insufficient demand from institutional investors [6] - If the current trend of rising Japanese bond yields continues, it may pose spillover risks to global interest rates, with potential adjustments in supply or monetary policy needed to stabilize the situation [10]

【市场分析：美元中期承压，人民币汇率波动区间有望企稳】近期美元指数震荡回落，主因是美国财政 与信用风险重新定价。穆迪下调美国主权评级，三大评级机构对美债评级均低于 3A，加上国会推进大 规模减税与扩张性财政法案，联邦债务预期抬升，引发"卖美国"交易升温。30 年期美债收益率突破 5.1%，短端利率平稳，市场对长期财政可持续性担忧升温，衍生品市场看空情绪创历史新高。 4 月银 行结售汇逆差小幅扩大，企业结汇与售汇规模增长，外汇交易活跃度上升。4 月货物贸易顺差收窄，跨 境资金净流入649 亿美元，出口有韧性但面临不确定性。资本项方面，证券投资项下涉外收付款波动， 人民币债券托管量回升，外资配置意愿改善。4 月社零和工业增加值同比增长，5 月 LPR 下调释放托底 信号，人民币得到阶段性支撑。 从基本面看，5 月美国 PMI 初值高于预期，穆迪下调评级削弱美元信 心，中国跨境资金净流入，货物贸易顺差稳固。美债收益率因财政风险上行，中国 LPR 下调压低短端 利率，短期内美中利差有走阔趋势。美方关税政策反复，评级下调叠加政策不确定，美元承压凸显人民 币相对稳定性。 欧元方面，欧盟发展预期乏力，美关税政策增强欧元资产 ...

Group 1 - International gold prices opened strong, hovering around the $3,300 mark, supported by various moving averages and buying interest [1] - Gold prices softened on Thursday due to profit-taking after several days of gains, with the dollar continuing its upward trend, increasing by 0.3%, making gold more expensive for international buyers [3] - Despite concerns over U.S. fiscal risks and global bond market volatility supporting safe-haven demand, funds shifted towards the dollar [3] Group 2 - The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that Federal Reserve Board members are protected from being dismissed by the President, indicating strong resistance against any such efforts [2] - The court's decision highlighted the unique structure of the Federal Reserve as a quasi-private entity, following historical traditions of the first and second banks of the United States [2] - The ruling did not explicitly prohibit the President from dismissing Federal Reserve members, but it suggests that such actions would face significant legal challenges [2]

周四，美国国债收益率飙升至近年来高位，主要受美国债务激增和近期债券拍卖需求疲弱的影响。30年 期国债收益率突破5.10%，10年期收益率达到4.6%，反映出投资者在财政风险加剧背景下对更高回报的 需求。 美国10年、20年及30年期国债收益率曲线| 图表来源：TradingView 截至2025年5月22日，美国国债收益率： ·10年期收益率：4.6%； 2024年美国债务占GDP比率| 数据来源：FiscalData美国政府 ·20年期收益率：5.109%； ·30年期收益率：5.10%。 本周早些时候，美国财政部20年期国债拍卖需求疲软，需提供5.047%的收益率才能吸引买家，显示出 随着穆迪将美国信用评级从AAA下调至AA1，市场信心低迷、信用风险上升。 美国财政挑战日益严峻 2025年，美国约有9.2万亿美元国债到期，约占所有流通市场债务的三分之一，其中预计有55%至60%的 债务将在2025年7月之前到期。 根据FiscalData.Treasury.gov数据，截至2025年5月，美国国债总额约为36.21万亿美元。2025财年，利息 支出预计约为6840亿美元，占联邦政府总支出的16%。 预计到 ...

智通财经APP获悉，德意志银行表示，美国国债正面临来自日本债券日益激烈的竞争，因为日本债券收益率 上升使其对当地买家更具吸引力。德意志银行外汇研究主管George Saravelos指出，近期美国收益率与日元 汇率出现背离。这是"美国财政风险加速上升的最重要市场指标"，表明谨慎的外国买家正在从美国国债市 场撤资。 摩根士丹利策略师Matthew Hornbach表示，日本30年期国债正在向美国同类国债发出令人担忧的信号。 Saravelos在报告中表示："在美国国债收益率上升的同时，日元也在走强。我们认为，这证明外国投资者对 美国国债市场的参与度正在下降。" 美债收益率与日元汇率出现背离 经济不确定性以及对日本央行减少债券购买的担忧最近对日本债券造成了冲击，导致日本30年期国债收益 率升至1999年有记录以来的最高水平。周二拍卖的日本20年期国债需求创下十多年来的最低水平。 如今，日本收益率上升已经开始吸引先锋集团和RBC BlueBay Asset Management等海外买家，当地买家可能 也会跟进。 就美国债券而言，投资者感到不安，因为美国最新的支出计划可能缺乏资金支持。最重要的是，穆迪最近 取消了美 ...

国际货币基金组织工作人员：安哥拉经济增长下修对财政表现构成风险。 ...

美国总统特朗普：拜登把国家置于财政、金融风险之中。 ...