Market Overview - The US dollar index is expected to slightly decline this week, having dropped over 10% in the first half of the year, marking its worst performance since 1973 [1] - Spot gold has risen significantly, gaining over $100 per ounce, driven by a weaker dollar, increased expectations for Fed rate cuts, trade negotiation uncertainties, and concerns over fiscal risks from the "Big and Beautiful" plan [1] - The euro has appreciated nearly 14% this year, reaching a high of 1.1830 this week, as investors seek safety in European assets amid US policy fluctuations [1] Economic and Policy Developments - Goldman Sachs has moved its expectation for the Fed to restart rate cuts from December to September, predicting three consecutive cuts totaling 75 basis points [5] - Morgan Stanley reports that US tariff revenues are annualized at $327 billion, which is detrimental to economic growth, advising investors to favor US Treasuries and short the dollar [5] - The US non-farm payroll data showed an increase of 147,000 jobs in June, with the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropping to 4.1%, leading to reduced bets on a July rate cut [6] Trade and Tariff Updates - President Trump announced unilateral tariffs ranging from 10% to 70% on trade partners, effective August 1, which is higher than previously proposed rates [8] - The US has reached a trade agreement with Vietnam, allowing US goods to enter Vietnam at zero tariffs, while imposing a 20% tariff on Vietnamese exports to the US [10] Legislative Actions - The US House of Representatives passed the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill, which is approximately $3.4 trillion in size, with supporters claiming it will benefit all income levels through tax cuts [11] - The bill is criticized by Democrats as "robbing the poor to pay the rich," with projected costs exceeding $4.5 trillion over the next decade [11] Corporate Developments - Tesla reported a 13.5% year-over-year decline in Q2 vehicle deliveries, totaling 384,122 units, yet its stock surged nearly 5%, adding $48.1 billion to its market cap due to better-than-expected performance [17] - Robinhood, Bybit, and Kraken have launched stock tokenization services, allowing 24/7 trading of US stocks, marking a significant shift in the trading landscape [18][19] AI and Talent Acquisition - Apple is considering using technology from Anthropic or OpenAI for its new Siri version, indicating a potential shift from its in-house AI development [20] - Meta has hired at least eight key researchers from OpenAI, reflecting a competitive talent acquisition strategy in the AI sector [21]

Group 1 - Swiss bank analysts predict at least one more interest rate cut in the Eurozone this year due to uncertainties in trade negotiations and economic growth risks [1] - Societe Generale strategists expect the 10-year German government bond yield to remain in the range of 2.40%-2.80% by the end of the year, with an anticipated steepening of the yield curve [1] - Monex Europe analysts warn that the British pound faces further depreciation risks as the market has not fully absorbed the fiscal risks associated with the UK [3] Group 2 - Australian economists highlight that the current US tariff policy poses a significant threat to global economic growth, with the average tariff rate rising to 20% from 3% earlier this year [2] - BlackRock maintains an optimistic outlook, suggesting that the US policy environment is gradually becoming favorable for risk assets, particularly equities and credit bonds [2] - Moody's indicates that Japan's potential large-scale tax cuts due to election pressures could negatively impact its credit rating, depending on the extent and duration of the cuts [3]

Group 1 - The long-term bond market is experiencing significant volatility due to rising government borrowing demands and expanding deficits, leading to higher yield requirements from investors [1][4] - The UK has become a focal point of this turmoil, with the Chancellor's proposed £50 billion welfare cuts being rejected, raising concerns about the government's fiscal discipline and resulting in a sharp increase in 30-year UK bond yields [1][4] - The sensitivity of long-term bonds to fiscal risks is attributed to their illiquid market, where even minor sell-offs can lead to substantial price drops and yield spikes [3][4] Group 2 - Various governments, including the US, Japan, and Australia, are reconsidering their issuance strategies for long-term bonds in light of high interest rates and fiscal concerns [4][6] - Japan's recent announcement to reduce the issuance of long-term bonds has led to a temporary stabilization in demand for its 30-year bonds, although yields still rose due to global market pressures [6][7] - Investors are increasingly favoring short-term bonds over long-term ones due to the heightened sensitivity of the latter to fiscal and political risks, as well as the demand for higher yields as compensation for these risks [7]

Group 1 - HSBC has significantly raised its gold price forecast for 2025 from $3015 to $3215 per ounce, and for 2026 from $2915 to $3125, reflecting a 7.2% increase [1] - The bank attributes the long-term value of gold to the evolving global risk landscape and rising sovereign debt, noting that gold's role as a safe-haven asset increases during economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions [1] - As of July 1, 2023, international gold prices are fluctuating around $3360 per ounce, with expectations that prices will range between $3100 and $3600 for the remainder of 2025, and a target price of $3175 by the end of 2025 [1] Group 2 - The report highlights a significant correlation between gold price movements and central bank purchasing behavior, indicating that if gold prices exceed $3300, central banks may slow their buying pace [2] - If gold prices retreat to around $3000, it could trigger a new wave of reserve asset allocation, while sustained prices above $3500 may lead to demand pressures in major consumer markets like India and China [2] - The market is closely monitoring U.S. policy developments, including potential tax reform and trade tensions, which could inject further uncertainty into the gold market [2]

Core Viewpoint - The current Middle East tensions are redefining the concept of "safe haven" in the markets, with oil prices soaring and stock markets declining, while traditional safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasuries are being sold off [1][6]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Oil prices have surged significantly, impacting foreign exchange markets, where traditional safe-haven currencies have underperformed [2][3]. - The initial reaction saw the U.S. dollar rise, reflecting traditional safe-haven behavior, but this was reversed during the New York trading session as stock markets rebounded [2]. Group 2: Currency Performance - Traditional safe-haven currencies, such as the Japanese yen and Swiss franc, have weakened against the U.S. dollar, showing a strong negative correlation with Brent crude oil prices [3]. - Oil-related currencies like the Norwegian krone and Canadian dollar have performed well, aligning with their sensitivity to oil price movements [3]. - Other currencies displayed mixed performance, with the Swedish krona and New Zealand dollar underperforming, while the euro depreciated moderately, maintaining above 1.15 against the dollar [3]. Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market has reacted unexpectedly, with significant sell-offs in global core sovereign bonds rather than the anticipated inflow of "safe haven" funds [3]. - The rise in actual interest rates was largely influenced by better-than-expected U.S. sentiment data, contributing to the increase in rates [3]. - Rising oil prices have led to increased inflation expectations, with the U.S. 10-year breakeven rising by 2 basis points and real yields increasing by 5 basis points [3]. Group 4: Changing Safe Haven Logic - The dynamics in the U.S. Treasury market are shifting due to concerns over fiscal and inflation risks, as well as expectations of increased supply [4][6]. - The weakening of the safe-haven status of U.S. Treasuries is attributed to inflation worries and rising sovereign debt supply [6]. - Unless there is clear evidence that geopolitical tensions will lead to global growth slowdown or reduced inflation, U.S. Treasuries may take longer to regain their traditional safe-haven qualities [6].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the Euro, revising the forecast higher to 1.25 in 12 months from 1.20, suggesting a buy recommendation for a 6-month EUR/USD digital call option at 1.25 with a risk-reward ratio of 1.35 for approximately 7.3% [2][10][12]. Core Insights - The US Dollar has experienced a decline of about 6% this year, reversing its previous gains, and the report suggests that this depreciation trend is likely to continue due to slowing economic performance and skepticism regarding foreign investment in US assets [10][13][26]. - The report highlights the potential end of the easing cycle for the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), indicating that after a series of rate cuts, the RBI has signaled limited space for further monetary support, with inflation forecasts adjusted accordingly [5][37]. - The report discusses the implications of fiscal risks on the Dollar, noting that while higher yields have been accepted as compensation for holding US debt, concerns about fiscal sustainability may lead to a weaker Dollar and higher yields in the future [20][26]. Summary by Sections Euro Forecast - The forecast for EUR/USD has been adjusted to 1.17, 1.20, and 1.25 over the next 3, 6, and 12 months respectively, reflecting a more bullish outlook [12][13]. - A digital call option for EUR/USD at 1.25 is recommended, with a maximum payout of 13.7 times the premium paid [14]. US Dollar Analysis - The report notes that the broad Dollar has fallen approximately 6% this year, with a stable performance against other developed market currencies over the past six weeks [10][13]. - The report suggests that the current adjustment in the Dollar's value is more indicative of a transitional phase rather than a definitive end to its depreciation [10][13]. RBI and Indian Market Insights - The RBI has cut policy rates by 100 basis points in the current cycle, indicating a likely end to the easing cycle, with inflation expected to rise to around 4.5% by mid-2026 [5][37]. - The report emphasizes the importance of liquidity and credit growth, noting that the RBI may maintain rates unless there is a significant slowdown in growth [37][38]. Singapore Dollar Strategy - The report recommends shorting the Singapore Dollar nominal effective exchange rate (SGDNEER) via options, given the low likelihood of the Monetary Authority of Singapore widening the trading band [28][32]. - The strategy is based on the expectation of a major USD rebound and the current large front-end rate differential between USD and SGD [32][33].

经济合作与发展组织(OECD)再次大幅下调全球经济增长预测，将矛头直指特朗普的贸易政策，这场关 税风暴正将世界经济拖入下行通道，而美国自己却成了最大的受害者之一。 周二，这家总部位于巴黎的组织今年第二次下调全球经济预测，将2025年全球经济增长率从此前的 3.3%大幅调降至2.9%。 更令人震惊的是，美国经济增长预期遭遇"腰斩"，从2.8%暴跌至1.6%——这一数字远低于OECD在3月 份的预测。 该组织还警告，即使经济活动疲软的影响将超过支出削减和关税收入，美国预算赤字仍将进一步扩大。 更令投资者担忧的是，OECD预测美国通胀率今年将走高，这意味着美联储可能要到2026年才会重新开 始降息。如果消费者价格预期脱锚，这一进程甚至可能彻底脱轨。 贸易缓和成唯一出路，但效果滞后 OECD首席经济学家Alvaro Pereira警告道： 经济前景的恶化将波及全球，几乎没有例外，增长放缓和贸易萎缩将冲击收入并拖累就业增 长。 美国自食其果，政策组合拳重创本土经济 OECD的评估揭示了一个残酷现实：特朗普的政策已成为全球经济面临的最紧迫威胁，且短期内看不到 解决方案。更糟糕的是，美国贸易伙伴的报复性措施、信心进一步恶化 ...

Core Viewpoint - The OECD report indicates that Trump's confrontational trade policies have led to a global economic downturn, with the U.S. experiencing the most severe impact [1]. Economic Growth Forecast - The OECD has downgraded the global economic growth forecast for 2024 from 3.3% to 2.9%, with the U.S. growth rate significantly reduced from 2.8% to 1.6% [1][2]. - Other regions' forecasts include Euro area at 1.0%, Japan at 0.7%, China at 4.7%, and India at 6.3% for 2025 [2]. Impact of Trade Policies - The report highlights that trade barriers and policy uncertainty are undermining market confidence and investment activities, exacerbating inflationary pressures [1][4]. - OECD Chief Economist Alvaro Pereira states that the global economic outlook is bleak, with reduced trade affecting income and employment growth [4]. Recommendations for Policy - The OECD emphasizes the importance of reaching agreements to ease trade tensions, reduce tariffs, and eliminate trade barriers to restore economic growth and investment [4]. - The report suggests that even if the Trump administration adjusts tariff policies, the positive effects on economic growth and inflation relief will not be immediate due to ongoing policy uncertainty [7]. Additional Economic Concerns - The report warns that the negative impacts of trade policies are compounded by immigration restrictions and large-scale federal layoffs, which may further deteriorate the U.S. economy [7]. - OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann notes that retaliatory measures from trade partners are slowing export growth, and significant immigration slowdown is also a concern [7]. Inflation and Fiscal Risks - The OECD predicts that U.S. inflation will continue to rise, with the Federal Reserve potentially delaying easing until 2026, and warns of the risk of consumer inflation expectations spiraling out of control [7]. - The report also highlights increasing global fiscal risks due to pressures from defense spending, climate governance, and aging populations, recommending governments to cut unnecessary spending and broaden the tax base [7].

全球债市28日又迎"煤矿中的金丝雀"时刻，40年期日债拍卖投标倍数创去年7月来新低。财政困境结构 性问题不除，日债美债动荡就难以轻易结束。 40年期日债拍卖投标倍数创去年7月来新低 过去几周来，全球债券收益率一直在稳步上升，而上周，由于投资者对主要发达经济体（尤其是日本和 美国）债务水平的担忧日益加剧，以及日本人寿保险公司等超长日本国债传统买家的需求减弱，日债、 美债的抛售压力突然加剧。在27日短暂喘息后，日债市场28日又面临40年期债券拍卖考验。上周的20年 期日债拍卖需求创下十多年来最弱水平，导致收益率飙升至创纪录高点。 在28日拍卖前，市场就已提前计价。40年期日本国债收益率上涨8个基点至3.365%，30年期日债收益率 攀升5个基点至2.88%，20年期收益率在前一交易日跌至约三周低点后涨7个基点至2.45%。上周，30年 期和40年期日债收益率分别创下3.185%和3.675%的历史新高，20年期日债收益率也创下2.60%的数十年 新高。 最终，40年期日债拍卖认购倍数为2.2，低于上次的2.9，为2024年11月来最低需求水平；投标倍数为 2.21，创2024年7月以来新低，最高得标收益率为3.1 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs reports that global long-term bonds are under pressure, with Japan's 30-year government bond yields continuing to rise, while U.S. fiscal issues remain a concern [1] - The recent soft performance of 20 to 40-year Japanese government bonds is seen as localized, reflecting technical factors, which reduces the urgency for policy adjustments [1][6] - In the context of rising global inflation and high fiscal deficits, Goldman believes that the spillover risks from the sell-off of Japanese long-term bonds are unlikely to dissipate quickly [1][10] Group 2 - The recent market dynamics are driven more by weak demand rather than the scale of deficits, with concerns heightened by Moody's credit rating downgrade and fiscal proposals in the U.S. Congress [2] - Goldman notes that the risks facing U.S. Treasury bonds are more related to a lack of stabilizing forces for overall fiscal trajectories amid declining demand for U.S. assets globally [2][3] - The 20-year U.S. Treasury bonds are particularly sensitive to signals of sustained weak demand, performing poorly relative to 10-year and 30-year bonds [5] Group 3 - A weak auction of 20-year Japanese government bonds has triggered significant price declines, continuing a trend of volatility since April, influenced by fiscal concerns and ongoing quantitative easing [6][10] - The long-term price trends of Japanese government bonds are primarily affected by technical factors, including macro position adjustments and insufficient demand from institutional investors [6] - If the current trend of rising Japanese bond yields continues, it may pose spillover risks to global interest rates, with potential adjustments in supply or monetary policy needed to stabilize the situation [10]