新华财经北京11月20日电在经济数据疲软与超大规模财政刺激预期的双重冲击下，日本金融市场近期剧 烈波动。日内盘中，10年期日本国债收益率攀升至1.80%上方，创下自2008年6月全球金融危机以来的 最高水平；40年期收益率飙升至3.747%的历史峰值，20年期收益率触及2.853%，至1999年以来新高。 日本内阁官房长官木原稔亦于稍早表态称，政府"正密切关注外汇市场，包括投机性在内的过度且无序 的波动"，并对近期汇率走势"感到担忧"，重申汇市应稳定反映经济基本面。 长期国债收益率的飙升还反映出结构性压力：通胀预期回升、货币政策正常化推进，以及传统买家（如 银行和保险公司）需求疲软。数据显示，今年以来30年期日债收益率已累计上涨逾100个基点，而同期 美国30年期国债收益率却有所回落，凸显日本债市的独特脆弱性。 市场正密切关注将于近期正式公布的补充预算细节及下周40年期国债标售结果，以评估财政风险溢价是 否将进一步扩大。 （文章来源：新华财经） 日本内阁府于11月17日公布的初步数据显示，2025年第三季度实际GDP环比下降0.4%，按年率计算下 降1.8%，为2024年第一季度以来首次负增长，亦终结了连续六 ...

在劳动力市场方面，小枝淳子称产出缺口约为0%，劳动力市场状况紧张。她提醒，除每年春季工资谈 判（"春斗"）外，还需综合关注最低工资涨幅、冬季奖金与企业利润的关联度，以及跳槽对薪资水平的 提升作用，以全面判断工资增长的可持续性。 新华财经北京11月20日电日本央行审议委员小枝淳子20日就货币政策路径发表讲话，主张应以可预测的 方式推进资产负债表正常化，并继续根据经济与物价形势适度上调政策利率。其表态反映出日本央行内 部对退出超宽松货币政策框架的审慎共识正在增强。 针对近期食品价格上涨，特别是大米价格显著上扬，小枝淳子警示其可能加剧消费者对物价上涨的感 知，并通过推高通胀预期引发更广泛的物价上行风险。但她预计，此类供给侧冲击的影响将在下一财年 上半年（即2025年4月起）逐步减弱。她同时呼吁密切关注暂时性因素对CPI的贡献是否如期消退，并 评估食品及其他商品价格持续超预期上涨对长期通胀预期的潜在影响。 关于货币政策操作，小枝淳子重申："必须使利率正常化，以避免未来造成扭曲。"她指出，即便实际利 率负区间略有收窄，当前金融环境仍极有可能保持宽松，足以继续支撑消费与投资。她强调，日本央行 应"根据每个时间点可获得的数 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) must continue to normalize its monetary policy by raising real interest rates to avoid unexpected market distortions, as stated by BOJ member Junko Koeda [1]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - Junko Koeda indicated that if BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda proposes a rate hike in the coming months, she would support it, emphasizing the need for policy rate adjustments based on economic activity and price improvements [1]. - The BOJ has maintained its policy rate at 0.5% despite core consumer inflation exceeding the 2% target for over three years, highlighting a cautious approach to interest rate changes [1]. - A survey revealed that 53% of economists expect the BOJ to raise the short-term interest rate from 0.50% to 0.75% in the upcoming December meeting, with a median forecast of 1.00% by the end of 2026 [3]. Group 2: Economic Conditions and Inflation - Koeda noted that corporate profits remain high, the economy shows resilience, and recent food price increases may affect inflation expectations [1]. - The Japanese yen has depreciated significantly, leading to concerns about imported inflation and price pressures, prompting expectations of early rate hikes by the BOJ [4]. - Economists believe that if wage growth momentum is confirmed and aligns with government coordination, the likelihood of a December rate hike is very high [4]. Group 3: Labor Market and Wage Growth - Koeda is monitoring Japan's minimum wage standards and the impact of increased employment mobility on wages, indicating that wage negotiations will be crucial for achieving inflation targets [2]. - A majority of economists (81%) expect that wage increases in the upcoming year will not exceed the previous year's 5.25%, suggesting a potential slowdown in wage growth [4]. - Despite a slight expected decline in overall corporate profits, strong corporate earnings are anticipated to support high wage growth rates through 2026 [5].

当前市场对进一步追高美元持谨慎态度，但整体趋势仍然偏向测试上行阻力。分析师指出，只要日本当 局不采取实质性干预措施，市场将继续试探上方压力位，下一关键阻力位关注1月10日高点158.88。投 资者正密切关注任何可能引发政策转向的信号。 周三日元跌至10个月低点，推动美元全面走强。日本推出大规模财政刺激计划，同时坚持低利率立场， 即便在全球股市承压期间，也削弱了日元的避险需求。日本政府提及"紧迫性"的相关表态，未能遏制日 元跌势。 美元/日元技术分析 周四（11月20日）亚洲时段，美元/日元在逾十个月高位徘徊，最新美元兑日元汇率报157.3600，涨幅 0.13%，除非日本官方进行明确干预或日本央行调整政策方向，否则日元的弱势格局仍可能延续。 在日本央行审议委员小枝淳子周四发表鹰派言论后，市场对日本央行即将加息的预期显著升温。小枝淳 子在新潟市对商界领袖明确表示："鉴于实际利率目前处于显著偏低水平，我认为央行有必要推进利率 正常化。"这一表态被市场解读为日本央行可能最早于12月加息的明确信号。 尽管小枝淳子的讲话强化了12月加息的可能性，但日元兑美元汇率在言论发表后进一步走弱，显示投资 者仍在等待更明确的政策行 ...

据美国银行最新发布的全球基金经理调查，日元被广泛视为2026年最具回报潜力的主要货币。该调查于 2025年11月7日至13日进行，覆盖172名资产管理规模合计达4750亿美元的投资者。结果显示，约三分之 一的受访者预计日元将在明年实现最佳回报，黄金与美元紧随其后，而仅3%的受访者选择英镑。 这一乐观预期与日元在2025年的实际表现形成鲜明对比。截至当前，美元兑日元年内仅上涨1%，在十 国集团（G10）货币中表现垫底。分析指出，日本央行对加息前景的模糊表态，以及新任首相高市早苗 作为宽松货币政策支持者的立场，是导致日元今年疲软的关键因素。高市政府正筹备超出预期的财政支 出计划，进一步抑制了市场对货币政策正常化的信心。 尽管如此，投资者对日元的看涨情绪可能源于其当前被显著低估的状态。这种低估部分反映了国际资本 对日本资产的持续低配：参与上述调查的基金经理对日本股票的净低配比例达4%，且该配置倾向已维 持超过一年。 市场亦关注日本当局可能的汇率干预动向。2024年，当日元一度跌破1美元兑160日元的关键心理关口 时，日本政府曾采取行动入市干预。荷兰国际集团（ING）伦敦办公室货币策略师Francesco Pesol ...

日本央行行长植田和男释放了明确信号，即日本央行将继续行走在谨慎加息的道路上。 周二，植田和男在与首相会晤后对媒体表示，他已告知高市早苗，日本央行"正在逐步调整货币宽松的程度"。他强调，做出这一调整的根本原因 在于，"物价与工资共同上涨的机制正在恢复"。 此次会晤正值日本金融市场动荡之际。本周日本股市与政府债券双双下挫，基准10年期国债收益率触及17年新高。与此同时，日元兑美元汇率跌 破155的关键心理关口，兑欧元汇率更触及180的历史新低。投资者正密切关注新任首相高市早苗的货币政策立场，并等待本周即将公布的经济刺 激计划细节。 他明确指出，薪资与通胀共同增长的良性循环正在形成，这是央行调整超宽松货币政策的先决条件。植田和男表示： "鉴于此，我们正在逐步调整货币宽松的程度。" 植田和男补充说，日本央行将依据经济数据做出"适当的"政策决策。 植田和男的表态为寻求政策确定性的投资者提供了关键线索。他同时指出，央行将根据数据做出适当的政策判断，并与政府密切合作，共同监测 汇率走势及其对经济的影响。日本央行的下一次议息会议定于12月19日举行。 逐步退出宽松，确认加息路径 植田和男在会后的发言中，重申了日本央行对当前经 ...

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan's latest policy meeting summary indicates that the earliest possible interest rate hike could occur in December, aligning with market expectations [1] - A member of the policy committee stated that conditions for further normalization of policy rates are likely to be in place, emphasizing the need to continue monitoring core inflation trends [1] - The summary reveals a consensus among committee members that the timing for a rate hike is approaching, consistent with recent comments from Governor Kazuo Ueda [1] Group 2 - Following the summary release, the yen appreciated slightly against the dollar, trading at approximately 153.80 yen per dollar, recovering from a recent eight-month low of 154.48 [2] - Prime Minister Fumio Kishida expressed that Japan has not yet achieved sustainable inflation supported by wage growth, suggesting a preference for the Bank of Japan to slow down rate increases [2] - Kishida indicated that while consumer price index remains around 3% due to rising food prices, Japan has only completed half of the task towards achieving stable inflation supported by wage growth [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's recent meeting minutes indicate a growing consensus among policymakers for a potential interest rate hike, contingent on sustained corporate wage growth and economic conditions [1][2][3] Group 1: Interest Rate Hike Considerations - Eight out of nine committee members expressed the need for a timely interest rate increase or set specific conditions for a future hike [1] - The timing of any rate increase will depend on corporate earnings reports and executive statements confirming ongoing wage increases [1] - A committee member emphasized the importance of not missing the opportunity to raise rates, despite the current situation not necessitating immediate action [1] Group 2: Economic Factors Influencing Decisions - The impact of U.S. tariffs and the wage growth momentum of Japanese companies are critical factors in determining the timing of the next rate hike [2] - Another committee member noted that raising the policy rate is part of the normalization process, which could help mitigate future economic distortions [3] Group 3: Political and Economic Context - The Bank of Japan maintained the interest rate at 0.5%, with two members opposing this decision and advocating for a rise to 0.75% [1] - Following the appointment of Prime Minister Kishida, who supports expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, the Bank of Japan faces political challenges regarding its monetary stance [3] - A recent survey indicated that a majority of economists expect the Bank of Japan to raise rates within the current quarter, with nearly 96% predicting a hike by the end of March [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan has implemented a historic interest rate hike, ending an eight-year negative interest rate policy, but the normalization of monetary policy remains a challenging task due to various uncertainties in the market [1][6]. Monetary Policy and Economic Challenges - The Bank of Japan raised the benchmark interest rate from -0.1% to a range of 0-0.1%, marking its first increase since 2007 [1]. - The former president of the Asian Development Bank, Takahiko Nakao, emphasizes the importance of a robust monetary policy normalization plan to avoid further depreciation of the yen and to facilitate the exit from ultra-loose monetary policies [1][6]. - Concerns about asset bubbles are resurfacing globally, with warnings about the risks associated with rapid increases in real estate and stock prices, particularly in Asian countries [1][10]. Financial Market Risks - The financial market is facing three major risks: 1. Increased government spending and expanding deficits leading to excessive national debt accumulation, particularly in the U.S. and Japan [2][10]. 2. Stock prices potentially being overvalued due to expectations of returns from the AI revolution [2][10]. 3. Risks associated with private debt, as non-bank institutions engage in extensive financial intermediation with insufficient regulation [2][10]. Historical Lessons - Reflecting on Japan's past, it is noted that during the 1985 Plaza Accord, the rapid appreciation of the yen led to overly expansionary fiscal and monetary policies, contributing to the subsequent asset bubble [3][4]. - After the bubble burst in 1990, Japan's policy response was inadequate, failing to recognize the severe negative impacts of the bubble's collapse, which resulted in significant economic downturns [4]. Future Economic Potential - Japan possesses significant economic potential and should focus on converting technological advancements into economic benefits while increasing investment in research and development [5]. - The country has successfully emerged from deflation and should wisely utilize fiscal and monetary policies to support growth [5]. Regional Cooperation and Global Trade - In the context of rising global trade tensions, strengthening regional cooperation through agreements like RCEP and the China-Japan-Korea Free Trade Agreement is essential for mitigating unilateralism risks [7]. - The collaboration between Japan and China in technology and other sectors is seen as a way to address global challenges, particularly in the face of demographic changes and labor shortages [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The new Japanese Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, faces a dilemma regarding the depreciating yen, which has reached an 8-month low, risking imported inflation while trying to support exports [1][3]. Group 1: Yen Depreciation and Economic Impact - The yen has entered a depreciation phase, with the Bank of Japan maintaining its benchmark interest rate, disappointing investors and causing the yen to drop to 154.17 against the dollar [3]. - The Japanese government is increasingly concerned about the yen's depreciation, with the new Finance Minister warning of a heightened urgency to monitor the exchange rate, indicating a potential for direct intervention [3][4]. - Historical context shows that the Japanese authorities intervened in the forex market when the yen depreciated significantly, suggesting that current conditions may warrant similar actions [4]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Inflation - Economists predict that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates by at least 25 basis points by March 2026, driven by ongoing inflation pressures from the yen's depreciation [5]. - Recent data indicates that Japan's core consumer prices rose by 2.9% year-on-year in September, exceeding the central bank's target and highlighting the inflationary challenges posed by the yen's decline [6]. - The continuous depreciation of the yen is exacerbating imported inflation, which is putting pressure on the cost of living for Japanese citizens [6][7]. Group 3: Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth - Takaichi's proposed economic policies, termed "Sanae Economics," are seen as a continuation of Abenomics, focusing on expansionary fiscal measures and loose monetary policy to stimulate demand [5][7]. - While these policies may provide short-term economic growth and boost market confidence, they also pose long-term risks, including increased government debt and potential financial instability [7]. - The current economic environment is characterized by a complex interplay between the need for monetary tightening due to inflation and the government's expansionary fiscal stance, complicating the Bank of Japan's policy decisions [6][7].