日本央行一边按兵不动，一边抛售ETF，这场暗藏锋芒的"鹰派突围"，正悄悄搅乱美联储的降息算盘。 2025年9月19日，日本央行在维持利率不变的同时，悄悄放出一个重磅信号——要开始减持手里的ETF。 这一招看似"按兵不动"，实则暗藏"鹰意"，直接影响到了大洋彼岸的美联储，让原本看似顺利的降息进程多了许多不确定。 2025年9月19日，日本央行宣布将基准利率维持在0.5%不变，这是市场普遍预期中的操作。 但紧接着的一则声明却让市场瞬间紧张了起来——日本央行计划每年减持约3300亿日元的ETF（交易型指数基金）和50亿日元的房地 产投资信托基金。 因为，就在日本央行宣布这一决策的前一天（2025年9月18日），美联储刚刚宣布下调联邦基金利率目标区间至4.00%-4.25%，幅度为 25个基点。 当日本央行释放鹰派信号、日元升值后，美元也会被动升值，这对美国可不是什么好消息。 美元升值会削弱美国出口竞争力，影响制造业和就业市场。偏偏当前的美国，正面临就业数据疲软、消费放缓等内部压力。 美联储原本想通过稳步降息来托住经济，现在却可能因为外部汇率压力而不得不更加谨慎。 此外，美联储内部的意见也并不一致。亚特兰大联储主席博 ...

新华财经北京9月25日电（崔凯）日本央行25日公布的货币政策会议纪要显示，多位政策委员对当前经 济与通胀形势表达了审慎乐观，但内部对货币政策正常化的节奏存在明显分歧。 9月19日，日本央行货币政策会议以7比2的投票结果决定维持基准利率在0.5%不变，连续第五次会议按 兵不动，符合市场预期。同时，该行全票通过将开始出售所持交易所交易基金（ETF）及日本房地产投 资信托（J-REIT），出售规模原则上将与"从金融机构购入股票"的规模大体相当，并强调避免对金融市 场造成不稳定影响。 本次议息会议最显著的特征在于"静态平衡"表象下的动态调整。尽管维持利率不变，但日本央行同步启 动ETF抛售机制，标志着量化宽松政策的实质性收缩。据政策声明，此次资产处置将遵循"避免市场动 荡"原则，规模与金融机构股票购入量大体相当。 多位委员表达了类似观点。一位委员表示，若通胀率持续高于2%较长时间，日本央行应适时调整货币 政策支持力度；另一委员则强调，"从风险管理角度看，在适当的时候加息至关重要"，并主张"应尽可 能尽早加息"，因当前政策利率已低于中性区间，过度谨慎恐错失时机。 然而，亦有委员提醒需保持耐心。一位委员指出，日本央行在做 ...

Group 1: Inflation and Interest Rates in Asia - India's inflation rate rose to 2.07% in August, marking the first increase in 10 months, slightly above the Reserve Bank of India's target range lower limit of 2% to 6% [1][3] - Several Asian central banks, including those in South Korea and India, are expected to continue lowering interest rates in the fourth quarter, with concerns about domestic inflation and the impact of U.S. tariffs persisting [2][3] - The recent rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have narrowed the yield gap between U.S. and Asian bonds, providing more room for Asian economies to ease monetary policy [2][4] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Policy Responses - Analysts suggest that the easing of monetary policy in Asia may be more prolonged than in the U.S., driven by resilient growth data and low inflation in the region [4] - The Australian Reserve Bank has lowered rates to a two-year low, while the Indian central bank has made significant cuts to support domestic growth amid external pressures [2][3] - The economic growth in export-dependent economies like South Korea and Singapore has been modest, while India has shown strong growth driven by domestic demand [3] Group 3: Japan's Monetary Policy - The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates before January next year, with a market probability of approximately 58% for a rate hike by the end of the year [5][6] - Despite political uncertainties following the resignation of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, the Bank of Japan officials believe they can proceed with a rate hike if economic conditions align with expectations [5][6] - Concerns remain regarding the impact of U.S. tariffs on Japanese corporate profits, which have already seen a decline of 11.5% in the second quarter [6]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's recent decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points is expected to provide Asian central banks with the opportunity to ease their monetary policies amid tariff pressures and global economic slowdown [1][3] - Analysts suggest that the easing cycle in Asia may extend beyond that of the Federal Reserve, as many Asian economies face domestic headwinds [3][5] - The Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Korea have already lowered their policy rates to near historical lows, indicating a trend towards more accommodative monetary policies in the region [3][4] Group 2 - Economists from Fidelity International and Oxford Economics predict that several Asian central banks, including those in Korea and India, may continue to lower rates in the fourth quarter [4][5] - The weakening of the US dollar is seen as providing additional space for Asian central banks to further relax their policies by the end of the year [4][5] - Despite some concerns about currency depreciation, the actual interest rates in many Asian economies remain above historical averages, allowing for potential rate cuts [4][5] Group 3 - In contrast to the easing trend in Asia, the Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates as it aims for monetary policy normalization, with a significant probability of a rate hike by the end of the year [6][7] - The Japanese economy faces uncertainties due to political changes and the impact of US tariffs, which have pressured corporate profits [6][7] - Analysts are divided on whether the Bank of Japan will raise rates in its upcoming meeting, with some expecting a hike while others anticipate a delay due to political and economic uncertainties [7]

【资讯导读】 ·美参议院否决临时拨款法案政府"停摆"风险升高 ·冯德莱恩提交欧盟第19轮对俄制裁措施 ·多国宣布承认巴勒斯坦国 ·日本央行维持利率不变将出售资产缩减宽松规模 ·日本央行19日在结束为期两天的货币政策会议后宣布，维持现行利率水平不变，未来将择机出售其持 有的金融资产，缩减宽松规模，推动货币政策正常化。 ·日本总务省19日公布的报告显示，今年8月日本去除生鲜食品后的核心消费价格指数（CPI）同比上升 2.7%至111.6，自去年11月以来涨幅首次降至3%以下。报告显示，食品价格上涨仍是拉动日本物价上涨 的最主要原因。 ·美国国会参议院19日否决众议院通过的一项临时拨款法案，推高部分联邦政府机构因资金耗尽而"停 摆"的风险。 ·欧盟审计机构欧洲审计团发布报告指出，由于供应链脆弱、内部市场分割等结构性问题，欧盟至今未 能找到有效解决方案，常用抗生素、疫苗等药品短缺现象仍将持续存在。 ·欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩19日发表声明，宣布向成员国提交第19轮对俄罗斯制裁措施，主要涉及能 源、金融等领域。 ·英国、加拿大和澳大利亚21日分别发表声明，宣布承认巴勒斯坦国。葡萄牙外交部长保罗·兰热尔21日 也宣布，葡萄 ...

Group 1 - Xi Jinping and Donald Trump had a phone call discussing the current state of China-US relations and strategic guidance for future development [3] - The State Council, led by Premier Li Qiang, held a meeting focusing on the implementation of the "Beautiful China" initiative and discussed the revision of the Banking Supervision Law [3] - The People's Bank of China will hold a significant press conference on September 22, 2025, to introduce achievements in the financial sector during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [3] Group 2 - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment reported that China has achieved its 2030 renewable energy targets ahead of schedule, with a continuous decline in carbon intensity during the 14th Five-Year Plan [3] - The Ministry of Commerce is promoting reforms in the automotive aftermarket to stimulate consumption and will work to eliminate restrictive measures in this sector [3] - The National Medical Products Administration is seeking opinions on a draft to enhance cosmetics regulation, aiming for a more robust regulatory framework by 2030 and achieving international standards by 2035 [3] Group 3 - Longi Green Energy and JinkoSolar have reached a settlement regarding global patent disputes, agreeing to end all ongoing legal proceedings and establish cross-licensing arrangements [3] - Huadian Co. announced plans to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with discussions ongoing with relevant intermediaries [3] - Dingxin Communications faced regulatory warnings for misleading information regarding its agreement with Alibaba's semiconductor subsidiary, PingTouGe [3] Group 4 - ByteDance announced it will comply with Chinese laws to ensure TikTok's continued service in the U.S. [4] - The U.S. House of Representatives passed a temporary spending bill to avoid a government shutdown, but it faces significant resistance in the Senate [4] - The European Commission proposed new sanctions against Russia, including a ban on liquefied natural gas and a price cap on Russian oil [4]

今天（9月19日），日元突然大幅走强，日本股市一度跳水1.6%。亚洲市场也跟随杀跌，恒生科技指数午后明显回 调，韩国股指持续走弱。A股午后也显著走弱。那么，究竟发生了什么？ 分析人士认为，日本央行表示将逐步开始出售其持有的国内股票交易所交易基金。尽管日本央行维持政策利率不变， 但此举表明，尽管人们对美国关税和全球经济影响的担忧日益加剧，日本央行仍将继续收紧政策。日本央行发布政策 决定后，亚太股市受到明显拖累。 日本飞出"黑天鹅" 9月19日，日本央行在最新的政策会议上决定维持基准利率在0.5%不变，这已是日本央行连续第五次会议按兵不动， 符合市场预期。但日本央行表示将逐步开始出售其持有的国内股票交易所交易基金。这引发了股市动荡。日经指数一 度杀跌1.6%，印度Nifty50指数跌0.4%，东南亚股指普遍杀跌。 美元兑日元亦大幅走低，这也是引发权益市场动荡的主要原因之一。 在日本央行发出鹰派立场后，日元走强。StoneX的马特·辛普森表示，虽然日本央行按预期维持利率不变，但央行宣布 开始平仓超大ETF和房地产投资信托基金持有量。这标志着日本从安倍经济学时代的超宽松政策迈出了重要且具有象 征意义的一步。这位高级市 ...

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan announced to maintain its current interest rate level and plans to sell financial assets to further reduce its easing measures and normalize monetary policy [1] - The Canadian central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, aiming to stimulate economic growth and alleviate downward pressure on the economy [1] - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 4.00% and 4.25%, marking its first rate cut of the year and indicating potential further cuts in the future [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's rate cut is expected to lower corporate financing costs, stimulate investment and consumption, and inject vitality into the U.S. economy [2][3] - The Fed's decision is likely to influence major asset classes, with expectations of a limited decline in U.S. Treasury yields, support for U.S. stocks, and a weaker dollar index [3] - Global funds may seek higher returns due to the U.S. rate decrease, potentially flowing into emerging market equities [3]

出售ETF会如何影响市场? 减少庞大的ETF持仓将有助于日本央行开始表现得更像一个正常的中央银行。此举标志着日本央行进入 一个新阶段——在经历数十年的非常规货币政策(包括通过购买ETF来刺激经济、对抗通缩)之后，日本 央行正尝试回归常态。 然而，抛售计划也存在风险，在日本股市今年正创下历史新高之际，可能削弱市场对日本股市的信心。 数据显示，日本央行通过ETF持有的股份相当于日本股市总市值的约7%。 智通财经APP获悉，周五，日本央行维持基准利率为0.5%不变，为连续第五次会议按兵不动，符合市场 预期。与此同时，日本央行宣布将在市场上出售持有的交易型开放式指数基金(ETF)和日本房地产投资 信托基金(J-REITS)。 具体来看，日本央行将以每年约3300亿日元(账面价值)的速度抛售ETF持仓，以每年约50亿日元的速度 抛售房地产投资信托基金。这是日本央行首次提及处置其ETF持仓的具体计划。截至2025年3月底，日 本央行持有的ETF账面价值为37万亿日元，市值达70万亿日元。而根据摩根士丹利三菱日联金融集团策 略师计算，截至9月中旬，日本央行持有的ETF市值约79.5万亿日元，未实现收益约为43.8万亿日元。 ...

新冠疫情期间，为应对疫情对日本经济及市场造成的严重冲击，日本央行通过扩大资产购买计划等手段 持续加大货币政策宽松力度。去年3月，日本央行宣布结束负利率政策、开启首次加息，停止购买ETF 及REIT，此后一直在寻找时机出售持有的资产。 来源：新华社 日本央行行长植田和男在记者会上表示，日本央行目前计划每年出售账面金额约3300亿日元的ETF及账 面金额约50亿日元的REIT，具体出售时机待定。 据《日本经济新闻》网站报道，账面金额3300亿日元的ETF目前市场价值约6200亿日元。截至今年3月 底，日本央行持有的ETF账面价值总计37万亿日元，市价约70万亿日元。 日本央行19日在结束为期两天的货币政策会议后宣布，维持现行利率水平不变，未来将择机出售其持有 的金融资产，缩减宽松规模，推动货币政策正常化。 公告显示，日本央行继续将政策利率保持在0.5%左右。此外，央行未来将择机在市场上出售其持有的 交易型开放式指数基金（ETF）及房地产投资信托基金（REIT）等资产。 作者: 刘春燕 ...