Group 1: Report Core View - The precious metals market entered a volatile pattern after a significant correction due to the release of profit - taking sentiment and the cooling of the tariff situation. The US federal government debt exceeded $38 trillion, and the government shutdown provided potential safe - haven support. Most Fed voters support a loose path, and a 25 - basis - point rate cut in the October FOMC meeting is almost certain. The market focuses on employment data and future rate - cut margins. The yen's low - level volatility and geopolitical factors also affect the market. Gold still has a high premium and is in an overbought area, so short - term correction risks should be guarded against. The precious metals' short - term trend may be wide - range volatile, and attention should be paid to the US CPI data [8]. - The short - term trend of gold and silver is expected to be wide - range volatile. The London gold price has strong support at the $4000 mark and a key resistance area around $4150. The Shanghai Gold 2512 contract is expected to trade in the range of 900 - 1000 yuan/gram, and the Shanghai Silver 2512 contract in the range of 11000 - 11600 yuan/kg. The US CPI data on Friday will be a key factor, and a stronger - than - expected CPI may weaken rate - cut expectations and lead to a greater gold price correction [8]. Group 2: Weekly Summary Market Review - The profit - taking sentiment led to a significant correction in the precious metals market. The US federal government debt exceeded $38 trillion, and the 22 - day government shutdown provided potential safe - haven support. The tariff situation is likely to be stable, and most Fed voters support a loose path. The 10 - month FOMC meeting is likely to cut rates by 25 basis points. The yen's low - level volatility and geopolitical factors affect the market [8]. Market Outlook - Gold has a high premium and is in an overbought area, so short - term correction risks should be guarded. The London gold price has support at $4000 and resistance around $4150. The Shanghai Gold 2512 contract is expected to trade between 900 - 1000 yuan/gram, and the Shanghai Silver 2512 contract between 11000 - 11600 yuan/kg. The US CPI data on Friday is crucial, and a strong CPI may lead to a greater gold price correction [8]. Group 3: Futures and Spot Market - This week, the profit - taking sentiment led to a significant correction in precious metals. As of October 24, 2025, COMEX silver was at $47.52 per ounce, down 6.14% for the week; the Shanghai silver main 2512 contract was at 11332 yuan/kg, down 7.49% for the week. COMEX gold was at $4065 per ounce, down 4.72% for the week; the Shanghai gold main 2512 contract was at 938.10 yuan/gram, down 6.17% for the week [9][11]. - As of October 23, 2025, the SPDR gold ETF holdings were 1052.37 tons, up 1.72% month - on - month; the SLV silver ETF holdings were 15469 tons, up 0.30% month - on - month. Due to the US government shutdown, the COMEX precious metals position data has not been updated [12][16]. - As of October 23, 2025, the gold basis was - 0.28 yuan/gram, up 95.9% month - on - month; the silver basis was - 89 yuan/kg, up 45.9% month - on - month. The gold and silver inventories of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and New York COMEX basically decreased. COMEX gold inventory was 38958914.92 ounces, down 0.48% month - on - month; the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory was 84606 kg, up 19.62% month - on - month. COMEX silver inventory was 503832524 troy ounces, down 2.3% month - on - month; the Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory was 920103 kg, down 21.3% month - on - month [22][30] Group 4: Silver Industry Import Situation - As of September 2025, China's silver import volume was 245749 kg, up 19.17% month - on - month; the import volume of silver ore and its concentrates was 160587998 kg, down 13.19% month - on - month [36] Downstream Demand - Due to the increasing demand for silver in semiconductors, the growth rate of integrated circuit production has been rising. As of August 2025, the monthly integrated circuit production was 4.25 million pieces, with a year - on - year growth rate of 3.20% [38][42] Group 5: Silver Supply and Demand - The silver supply and demand are in a tight - balance pattern. As of the end of 2024, the industrial demand for silver was 680.5 million ounces, up 4% year - on - year; the demand for coins and net bars was 190.9 million ounces, down 22% year - on - year; the net investment demand for silver ETFs was 61.6 million ounces, compared with - 37.6 million ounces in the same period of the previous year; the total silver demand was 1164.1 million ounces, down 3% year - on - year [44][48] - The silver supply - demand gap has been narrowing year by year. As of the end of 2024, the total silver supply was 1015.1 million ounces, up 2% year - on - year; the total silver demand was 1164.1 million ounces, down 3% year - on - year; the silver supply - demand gap was - 148.9 million ounces, down 26% month - on - month [50][52] Group 6: Gold Industry Price Changes - As of October 24, 2025, the Chinese gold recycling price was 939.30 yuan/gram, down 3.66% month - on - month; Lao Fengxiang's gold price was 1228 yuan/gram, down 2.84% month - on - month; Chow Tai Fook's gold price was 1232 yuan/gram, down 2.38% month - on - month; Saturday's gold price was 1164 yuan/gram, down 3.32% month - on - month [54][58] Demand Changes - According to the World Gold Council, in Q2 2025, the investment demand for gold ETFs declined slightly. The central bank's gold - buying pace slowed down, and the high gold price led to a marginal decline in gold jewelry manufacturing demand [60] Group 7: Macroeconomic Data - This week, the US dollar index rose slightly, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell. The 10Y - 2Y US Treasury yield spread narrowed, the CBOE gold volatility dropped significantly, and the ratio of SP500/COMEX gold price increased. The 10 - year inflation - balanced interest rate was 2.30%, and inflation expectations rose slightly [64][68][71] - In October 2025, the People's Bank of China continued to increase its gold reserves by about 1.87 tons, significantly more than other countries [75]

Core Viewpoint - The significant drop in gold and silver prices is attributed to profit-taking by investors and a cooling geopolitical situation, with gold experiencing its largest single-day decline in over five years [1][2][3]. Price Movements - On the 21st, international spot gold prices fell by approximately 5.3% to $4,123.85 per ounce, with an intraday drop of 6.3%, marking the largest decline in over a decade [1]. - By the 22nd, gold futures were reported at $4,034.9 per ounce, down 1.81%, while London spot gold was at $4,020.44, down 2.5% [1]. - Silver futures also saw a decline, dropping over 7% on the same day [1]. Market Trends - Since the beginning of the year, international spot gold prices have increased by over 50%, while silver prices have risen nearly 70% [1]. - Analysts suggest that the previous surge in precious metals was driven by geopolitical tensions, leading to a rush for safe-haven assets, and that a calming market sentiment could lead to further price corrections [1][3]. Historical Context - Historical data indicates that when gold prices deviate more than 24% from the 200-day moving average, a correction of approximately 18% can occur over a period of 3 to 6 months [4]. - The recent rise in gold prices from around $3,300 to over $4,000 per ounce was influenced by geopolitical changes, global economic uncertainty, and central bank gold purchases [6]. Market Reactions - The volatility in gold prices has shocked many sellers in the market, with reports of significant price drops affecting sales [7][9]. - Despite the price adjustments, consumer interest remains, although many are adopting a wait-and-see approach, hoping for further declines before purchasing [11][13]. - The drop in gold prices has also led to a slowdown in the active gold recycling market, with a reported decrease in customer visits by over one-third [18].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing fluctuations due to macroeconomic uncertainties, with recent developments in U.S.-China trade relations impacting investor sentiment and gold prices [1][2]. Group 1: Market Data - On October 23, the Shanghai gold futures closed at 942.28 yuan per gram, reflecting a decrease of 0.77% [1]. - The trading volume for the day was 555,735 contracts, while the open interest stood at 189,131 contracts [1]. - The spot price of gold in Shanghai was quoted at 938.00 yuan per gram, indicating a discount of 4.28 yuan per gram compared to the futures price [1]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Factors - U.S. President Trump expressed optimism about reaching a trade agreement with China during the upcoming APEC meeting, although he noted the possibility of cancellation [1]. - The EU has approved the 19th round of sanctions against Russia, which includes a ban on importing Russian liquefied natural gas [1]. - The U.S. government shutdown has lasted three weeks, becoming the second-longest in history, with ongoing deadlock over healthcare subsidies [2]. Group 3: Institutional Insights - According to Ruida Futures, the precious metals market is expected to experience wide-ranging fluctuations due to various macroeconomic uncertainties [2]. - International precious metals futures saw a general increase, with COMEX gold futures rising by 0.18% to $4,116.60 per ounce and silver futures increasing by 1.00% to $48.18 per ounce [2]. - The market is currently facing resistance to gold price increases due to improved risk appetite stemming from easing trade tensions and expectations of reduced tariffs [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the rising prices of precious metals, particularly gold and silver, driven by multiple factors including EU sanctions on Russia, liquidity release from the Federal Reserve, and uncertainties in U.S. fiscal policy [1] - COMEX gold futures increased by 0.18% to $4116.60 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures rose by 1.00% to $48.18 per ounce [1] - The World Gold Council reported that global physical gold ETFs saw the largest monthly inflow in history in September, totaling $26 billion, contributing to a record total inflow of $26 billion for the third quarter [1] Group 2 - As of the end of the third quarter, global gold ETF assets under management reached a historical high of $472 billion, with total holdings increasing by 6% to 3,838 tons, just 2% below the historical peak [1] - The article mentions that gold sales tend to increase significantly during times of economic uncertainty, as anxious investors view gold as a safe haven for their funds [1] - Analysts caution that precious metal prices may experience volatility, with potential price corrections expected due to the current overbought conditions and high market volatility [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market has recently experienced a significant overall correction due to the concentrated release of long - position profit - taking sentiment at high levels and the weakening of market risk - aversion sentiment. The short - term trend of gold and silver is expected to be mainly wide - range fluctuations, with attention focused on the US CPI data released on Friday. The support for London gold is at the $4000 mark, but there is a need to guard against subsequent correction risks. The attention range for the Shanghai Gold 2512 contract is 900 - 1000 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai Silver 2512 contract is 11000 - 11500 yuan/kilogram [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 952.56 yuan/gram, down 41.5 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract is 11404 yuan/kilogram, down 401 yuan. - The main contract open interest of Shanghai Gold is 192,803 lots, down 12,307 lots; that of Shanghai Silver is 386,233 lots, down 38,321 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in the Shanghai Gold main contract is 110,696 lots, down 9432 lots; that of Shanghai Silver is 97,632 lots, up 6359 lots. - The warehouse receipt quantity of gold is 87,015 kilograms, up 450 kilograms; that of silver is 691,688 kilograms, down 57,674 kilograms [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network gold spot price is 943.5 yuan/gram, down 49.4 yuan; the silver spot price is 11,303 yuan/kilogram, down 548 yuan. - The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract is - 9.06 yuan/gram, down 7.9 yuan; that of the Shanghai Silver main contract is - 101 yuan/kilogram, down 147 yuan [2] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - The gold ETF holdings are 1058.66 tons, unchanged; the silver ETF holdings are 15,676.64 tons, down 93.13 tons. - The non - commercial net position of gold in CFTC is 266,749 contracts, up 339 contracts; that of silver is 52,276 contracts, up 738 contracts. - The total quarterly supply of gold is 1313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total annual supply of silver is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. - The total quarterly demand for gold is 1313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the global annual demand for silver is 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2] 3.4 Options Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 28.14%, up 0.32%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 21.33%, up 0.5%. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 34.39%, down 0.58%; that of at - the - money put options is 34.39%, down 0.59% [2] 3.5 Industry News - UK inflation "unexpectedly remained unchanged", leading the market to increase bets on interest - rate cuts. The September CPI year - on - year was 3.8%, the same as the previous month, lower than the expected 4.0%. - European leaders issued a joint statement supporting negotiations to promote a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and agreed with Trump's proposal of an immediate cease - fire and using the current contact line as the starting point for negotiations. - Recently, a large amount of silver has flowed from the US and China into the London spot market, alleviating the liquidity crunch in the world's largest over - the - counter precious metals trading center. The one - month silver lending rate in London has dropped from a record high of 35% on October 10th to 19%, confirming that the tight silver spot situation has been alleviated [2]

Group 1: Gold Futures Market Performance - On October 21, the main gold futures in Shanghai reported a price of 993.96 yuan per gram, with an increase of 2.01% [1] - The opening price for the main gold futures was 990.00 yuan per gram, reaching a high of 1001.96 yuan and a low of 982.28 yuan during the day [1] Group 2: Macro News - U.S. President Trump announced an agreement with Russian President Putin to hold another summit to discuss ending the Ukraine war, with the Kremlin confirming the meeting plans but not disclosing specific dates [1] - Western nations have intensified efforts to curb Russian oil sales, with Trump stating that India will stop purchasing Russian oil and the UK imposing sanctions on top Russian oil companies [1] - Ukrainian President Zelensky is scheduled to meet with Trump in Washington to seek military and energy support [1] - Federal Reserve Governor Waller expressed support for another interest rate cut at the end of the month due to concerning signs in the labor market, while another governor, Milan, advocated for a more aggressive rate cut approach [1] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its economic growth forecast for Asia but warned that escalating U.S.-China tensions could heavily impact the region deeply integrated into global supply chains [1] Group 3: Institutional Views on Precious Metals - The current precious metals market is characterized by mixed factors, entering a phase of high-level fluctuations [2] - Ongoing U.S. government shutdown and unresolved U.S.-China tensions provide solid safe-haven support, limiting the downside for gold prices [2] - With market consensus on the Federal Reserve's expected interest rate cut in October and ongoing U.S.-China negotiations potentially leading to easing tensions, the momentum for significant further increases in precious metals is diminishing [2] - The market currently lacks strong catalysts for new direction, suggesting a period of consolidation and waiting for new directional guidance [2]

Core Viewpoint - On the 21st, gold and silver experienced widespread market sell-offs due to geopolitical factors and profit-taking by investors, with gold prices dropping over 6% and silver prices falling over 8%, marking significant declines in their respective markets [2] Group 1: Market Performance - International spot gold prices fell below $4100 per ounce, recording the largest single-day drop in 12 years [2] - International spot silver prices dropped below $48 per ounce, marking the largest single-day decline since 2021 [2] Group 2: Year-to-Date Performance - Since the beginning of the year, international spot gold prices have increased by over 50% [2] - International spot silver prices have risen by nearly 70% during the same period [2] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that previous tensions in the international situation led investors to seek safe-haven assets in precious metals, and if market sentiment continues to ease, precious metal prices may face further corrections [2]

周三亚市盘，贵金属继续跳水，现货黄金快速下探跌幅超2%，一度逼近4000美元。黄金从历史高位快速回调，地缘因素趋缓、美元走强、印度季节性购 金高峰结束及投资者集中获利了结等因素影响黄金走势。与此同时，白银一度跌幅也超2%。 快速下探后，金、银有所反弹，但未能收复失地。华尔街分析师警告贵金属回调风险。 | < W | 伦敦金现 | | | Q | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | 4055 890 TH | | | 4124.770 总量 | O | | -68.880 -- - 1.67% 升益 | | | 4124.468 现手 | 0 | | 最高价 4132.760 持 仓 | | | 0 外 雷 | 0 | | 最低价 4002.890 增 仓 | | | 0 内 ឌ | 0 | | 分时 五日 | 目K | | 更多 周K | | | 鹽加 | | | 均价:0.000 | | | 4246.650 | | | 2.95% 卖一 4056.170 | | | | | | 头一 4055.890 8:20 4055 ...

黄金突然闪崩，给市场的热情浇了一盆冷水，上周五金价快速下跌，人民币金价跌40元/克，伦敦金跌幅达300美元左右。 这一次，黄金上涨从8月15日维持了三个月以上，2280美元涨到4380美元，涨幅达1100美元，连续九周连创新高。 理智在疯狂面前一文不值，有人说：勇敢者先享受世界。而我认为过于激进的偏执不一定是勇者者的表面。 接下来，美联储利率决议将成为新的焦点，美国政府停摆导致多项数据公布推迟，避险情绪的不断升温推动黄金天天创新高。 早上有朋友问，黄金这次是调整还是中场休息，这一次回调的幅度是过去三个月以来最大的一次，而关键问题是会不会延续，尤其是凌面反弹的高点能不 能守住。 今天，我认为暂时先观望，看欧盘强弱再定调，牛市多急跌关键在于延续，看多但不追多，而看回调一定要谨慎，反弹后4280-85的范围内可以考虑短线 回调，日内多空看位置，长期布局看方向。 白银，黄金，铂金为代表的贵金属都涨疯了，白银今年涨了80%，黄金达到60以上，而铂金也是刷新历史高点，市场开始缺货缺料，大批人无脑涌入贵金 属市场。 2011年上一轮牛市和今天一样，疯狂到让人后怕，谁敢提示风险谁敢劝人下车，都将成为罪人，我对牛市的观点没变， ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.10.17」 贵金属市场周报 作者： 研究员 廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 助理研究员 徐鼎烽 期货从业资格号：F03144963 取 更 多 资 讯 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 业务咨询 目录 本周贵金属市场继续强势收涨，白银走势整体强于黄金 图1、沪金与COMEX金期价 图2、沪银与COMEX银期价 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业供需情况 4、宏观及期权 「 周度要点小结」 来源：瑞达期货研究院 3 ◆ 行情回顾：关税局势风波再起，在避险买盘需求的支撑下，贵金属市场本周继续强势收涨，金银价格接连突破历 史新高。特朗普释放关税战升温信号，推动市场避险情绪显著抬升，但考虑到此前特朗普在关税问题上立场反复 不断，本轮关税局势实质性升温的可能性或仍相对有限。从当前盘面来看，虽技术指标显示市场严重超买迹象， 金银价格短期回落后均有较强的买盘需求支撑，且外盘ETF以及CFTC投机持仓仍未达到历史峰值水平，说明贵金属 仍有继续上行的空间。美联储官员近期言论偏向鸽派，9月会议纪要显示多数委员支持进一步降息以应对增长放缓 及就业疲软，10月和12月各有逾90%和80%的 ...