Core Viewpoint - France is urging China to lift its countermeasures against French cognac imports, but China appears to link this issue to the European Union's tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles [1][3]. Group 1: Importance of Cognac to France - In 2023, France's cognac export value reached €4.2 billion, with nearly one-third of this market coming from China [3]. - High-end cognac brands, particularly XO, are considered valuable assets among wealthy consumers in China, indicating the significance of this market for French producers [3]. Group 2: Trade Relations and Responses - The European Commission is set to finalize tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, with potential rates soaring up to 48% [3]. - France's Agriculture Minister, Marc Fesneau, has expressed urgency for China to reconsider its stance, highlighting the tension in trade relations [3]. Group 3: Broader Economic Implications - The trade conflict could have severe repercussions for French agriculture, as the countermeasures may extend beyond cognac to include other vital sectors such as aircraft, luxury goods, and dairy products [3][5]. - The competitive landscape for cognac in China is intensifying, with domestic wines from regions like Ningxia and international competitors from Chile and Australia posing significant threats [5]. Group 4: Political Dynamics - French President Macron's previous emphasis on European strategic autonomy contrasts sharply with the current situation, where France seems to be reacting to U.S. influences rather than asserting its own interests [5]. - The ongoing trade war is characterized as mutually damaging, with reports of layoffs in French vineyards as a direct consequence of the trade tensions [5].

Group 1 - South Korea is actively seeking to extend the 90-day tariff suspension period originally set to expire on July 9, due to the current negotiation progress not being sufficient to meet the deadline [1] - The recent high-level trade talks between South Korea and the U.S. marked the third round of technical negotiations since the agreement to formulate a tariff reduction plan by July 9 was reached in late April [1] - The South Korean official indicated that some countries may reach agreements before July 8, while others may require extensions, and some may continue negotiations under the existing tariff framework [1] Group 2 - The U.S. focused on non-tariff barriers during the recent talks, shifting attention from nearly zero tariffs on U.S. imports to technical trade barriers and regulatory standards [2] - Discussions regarding foreign exchange rate policies and the sharing of defense costs for U.S. troops stationed in South Korea are being conducted through separate channels [2] - The ongoing tariff negotiations reflect a deeper strategic competition between South Korea and the U.S., with South Korea's key industries like automotive and steel urgently needing tariff relief, while the U.S. aims to reshape the Asia-Pacific trade landscape through new trade rules [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. Department of Commerce has extended the anti-dumping investigation deadline for various agricultural products originating from the EU to December 16, indicating that restrictive measures against EU agricultural products will remain in effect [1] - The extension of the investigation is linked to ongoing negotiations regarding electric vehicle subsidies, with analysts suggesting it serves as a tactical pressure on the EU to compromise on subsidy policies [1][3] - A European agricultural organization has warned that the extension will severely impact agricultural exports from certain EU countries, while the European Commission insists on maintaining competitiveness in the electric vehicle sector [1] Group 2 - A foreign think tank estimates that if the restrictive measures continue until the end of the year, EU agricultural exports to affected countries could decline by approximately 12%, impacting over 80,000 farmers [1] - The situation reflects a broader strategic challenge for the EU, as it attempts to balance industrial interests and trade rules amid rising tensions [3]

Group 1 - The U.S. has paused issuing technology licenses for commercial aircraft to China, aiming to leverage this for concessions on rare earth exports [1][4] - China dominates the rare earth market, refining 92% of global supply, and recent export controls have led to significant price increases and supply chain disruptions for international companies [3][6] - The U.S. defense sector is heavily reliant on rare earth materials, with the F-35 fighter jet requiring 417 kilograms of these materials, while domestic production is nearly non-existent [3][6] Group 2 - The U.S. strategy to withhold aviation technology is seen as a risky gamble, as China has already made preparations to counteract these moves [4][6] - The C919 aircraft has received pre-orders from 27 countries, and the certification process is progressing despite U.S. restrictions, with Airbus expressing willingness to cooperate [6][8] - U.S. defense contractors are feeling the pressure from the rare earth supply chain issues, leading to calls for the government to avoid decoupling from China [8] Group 3 - China is strategically engaging with Europe by signaling openness to rare earth supply for compliant companies, while simultaneously tightening controls against the U.S. [10][12] - Significant investments are being made in domestic rare earth processing capabilities, with companies like Jiangxi Ganfeng Rare Earth Group investing 12 billion yuan in recycling production lines [10][12] - The global supply chain is undergoing restructuring, with countries like Vietnam and Malaysia attempting to build rare earth processing facilities, but it will take years to reach China's refining capabilities [12][14] Group 4 - The U.S. strategy of "high-tech for resources" has backfired, leading to inflation and job losses in the automotive sector, while European companies are capitalizing on the situation [12][14] - China's rare earth exports have rebounded, with a 15% month-on-month increase in May, primarily directed towards Japanese and South Korean automotive companies [14] - The ongoing geopolitical struggle highlights the importance of internal strength, as the U.S. supply chain vulnerabilities are exposed while China leverages its resource position [14]

Core Viewpoint - The trade tensions between the US and EU are showing signs of easing, with President Trump shifting from a 50% tariff threat to a more conciliatory stance, leading to a significant rise in US stock markets [1][3]. Group 1: Trade Negotiations - German Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil emphasized the need for a quick resolution to the trade issues and expressed cautious optimism about reaching an agreement, highlighting the importance of a united EU response to US tariff threats [2]. - The trade relationship thawed dramatically within five days, with Trump delaying the implementation of the proposed tariffs from June 1 to July 9 after a positive conversation with EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen [3]. - The EU is adjusting its trade strategy to focus on key sectors such as metals, automobiles, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and civil aircraft, which are currently facing US tariff threats [3]. Group 2: Economic Context - Despite the apparent easing of tensions, the outlook for negotiations remains uncertain, as the US-EU trade deficit has doubled this year, driven by companies stockpiling goods ahead of potential tariffs [4]. - The EU's proposed solutions to reduce tariffs on various goods were rejected by the US, leading to further threats of increased tariffs from Trump [4]. Group 3: EU Preparedness - The EU has prepared retaliatory measures, including approved tariffs on US goods worth €210 billion (approximately $238 billion), targeting politically sensitive states [5]. - Additionally, the EU is preparing an extra tariff list covering €950 billion worth of US products, including Boeing aircraft, US-made cars, and bourbon whiskey [5]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Many EU officials believe that some of Trump's tariffs may persist in the long term, and the likelihood of reaching an ideal agreement remains low, particularly regarding US demands that could undermine EU regulatory and tax autonomy [6]. - The core logic of Trump's trade strategy—threats, concessions, and renewed threats—remains unchanged, with the resolution of this transatlantic trade crisis expected by July 9 [7].

Core Insights - The article discusses the activation of the "first sale rule" in U.S. customs law, which allows American companies to circumvent high tariffs on Chinese goods by calculating duties based on the initial sale price rather than the final sale price to U.S. retailers [1][3][5] Group 1: First Sale Rule - The first sale rule, established in 1988, allows for lower tariff calculations if certain conditions are met, such as the intermediary not being an affiliated party and having proper documentation [3][5] - This rule has gained attention as U.S. companies, facing high tariffs on Chinese imports, have begun to utilize it to significantly reduce their tariff burdens [5][7] Group 2: Impact on Tariffs - Tariffs on Chinese goods can reach as high as 30% or more, and using the first sale rule can effectively halve the taxable amount, leading to substantial savings for companies [7][9] - The rule has become a critical strategy for various industries, including luxury goods and biotechnology, as they seek to mitigate the financial impact of tariffs [5][7] Group 3: Political and Economic Implications - The use of this rule poses challenges for U.S. policymakers who advocate for trade protectionism, as it undermines the intended effects of high tariffs on Chinese imports [7][10] - The article suggests that the reactivation of this rule may create a dilemma for U.S. lawmakers, balancing national economic security with the interests of domestic companies [9][10] Group 4: Global Market Dynamics - From a Chinese perspective, the situation highlights the continued competitive advantage of Chinese products, which remain attractive to U.S. companies due to lower costs and reliable quality [10][12] - The article emphasizes that the evolving trade landscape reflects the complexities of global markets, where companies will seek new avenues to navigate regulatory challenges [12]

今日周四（5月22日)亚盘时段，白银期货目前交投于8318一线上方，今日开盘于8265元/千克，截至发 稿，白银期货暂8294元/千克，上涨0.97%，最高触及8320元/千克，最低下探8246元/千克，目前来看， 白银期货盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 知情人士表示，欧盟旨在与美国开展合作，寻求一份平衡且互利的协议。目前双方仍在相互试探，其中 一人指出，欧盟委员会在启动正式谈判前，很可能需要获得成员国的授权。他们还补充道，欧盟官员以 及许多成员国依旧怀疑特朗普政府是否抱有同样目标，并且一直向美方强调，大西洋两岸的繁荣紧密相 连。与此同时，欧盟也在推进相关准备工作，一旦谈判未能产生满意结果，便会采取应对举措。 据此前报道，尽管美国近期与英国和中国达成的协议表明特朗普升级贸易摩擦的意愿是有限度的，但欧 盟官员在这两份协议中均未看到未来协议的明确方向。这两份协议还显示，许多商品的基准关税以及一 系列行业措施很可能会继续存在。 【要闻速递】 据报道，欧盟预计将向美国分享一份修订后的贸易提案，力求为与特朗普政府的谈判注入动力，不过双 方能否达成协议仍疑云重重。 欧盟最新提案涵盖的其他领域包括食品和农业标准、互认协议、公共采购 ...

Group 1: Tariff Negotiations - China has made it clear that the 145% tariffs must be completely removed, leaving no room for negotiation [1][3] - The Chinese government rejects any form of "discounted compromise" and insists on the removal of unilateral tariffs as a prerequisite for negotiations [3] - The U.S. administration's proposal to reduce tariffs from 145% to 50%-60% is seen as a mere numerical game by China, which is not interested in the level of tariffs but in ending the use of trade as a weapon [3] Group 2: Economic Impact - The tariffs imposed by the Trump administration are beginning to negatively affect the U.S. economy, with rising prices reported by e-commerce platforms like Amazon and Temu [5] - Consumer spending patterns are shifting, with a decrease in restaurant traffic and an increase in essential goods expenditure, indicating a brewing macroeconomic storm [5] - The costs associated with tariffs are permeating every segment of the supply chain, ultimately being borne by American consumers [5] Group 3: Strategic Timing - The critical phase of the tariff negotiations may occur in July, coinciding with the expiration of a 90-day suspension period for "reciprocal tariffs" [7] - If the U.S. fails to reach agreements with Japan and Europe by mid-July, China's negotiating position will significantly strengthen [7] - The delayed economic impacts of tariffs are expected to culminate in July, potentially delivering a severe blow to the Trump administration as inflation and employment data emerge [7] Group 4: Strategic Resilience - China demonstrates strategic resilience by maintaining a firm stance on tariff negotiations while expanding its global market presence through initiatives like the Belt and Road [9] - The Chinese manufacturing sector, accounting for over 30% of global production, is redefining market rules, challenging the effectiveness of U.S. tariffs [9] - The ongoing tariff conflict reflects a clash of governance philosophies, with China adopting a rules-based approach to counter unilateralism, while the U.S. focuses on transactional tactics [9]

美国4月的关税收入一下子冲破了170亿美元大关！特朗普那叫一个得意，到处宣扬这是美国的"大获全 胜"。可这背后藏着个关键问题：这钱到底是谁出的呢？是从出口国那儿多收的，还是从美国老百姓自 己兜里掏的？这可关系到谁才是这场关税游戏里的真正赢家。最近啊，就连股神巴菲特都忍不住站出来 批评特朗普了，这背后到底有啥门道？咱们一起来瞧瞧。 美国4月的关税收入突破170亿美元大关，这消息一出来，特朗普那可高兴坏了，觉得美国在这场贸易博 弈里"大获全胜"。他到处宣扬这个成果，仿佛这是他执政的一大功绩。在他眼里，这多收的关税就是美 国赚的钱，是美国经济强大的证明。 可这里面有个关键问题：这笔钱究竟由谁承担，又是从谁那里多收取的款项呢？这就像一场魔术表演， 大家都在猜背后的机关到底在哪。 假如这笔钱来自出口国，那美国确实能赚得盆满钵满。出口国为了把商品卖到美国，只能乖乖多交关 税，美国就坐收渔利。就好比你去市场买东西，卖家为了把东西卖给你，主动多给了你一笔钱，这生意 对买家来说简直太划算了。 但要是这笔钱是从美国消费者身上搜刮而来，那就完全是另一回事了。特朗普政府表面上打着贸易保护 的旗号，实际上却让美国消费者成了"冤大头"。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The current coke market has no obvious fundamental contradictions, but the seasonal demand improvement is approaching an end, and the demand sustainability is questionable. The short - term futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. - There are still stagflation risks and concerns, which are beneficial to gold. The short - term upward momentum of gold is insufficient, and the downside space is also limited. A mid - term high - level shock with a slightly bullish bias is appropriate [1]. - The demand for iron ore is good, but the supply remains high, and there are concerns about the demand reaching its peak. The ore price is expected to remain in a low - level shock [3]. - The demand for steel is tepid, the steel mills have no signs of centralized production cuts, the inventory pressure is not large, and the raw fuel prices fluctuate slightly. The short - term steel price will fluctuate narrowly [3]. - There is still an expectation of monetary easing, but the issuance of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds is imminent, and the bond market supply will increase. The bond market may fluctuate more, and a mid - term shock approach is appropriate [4]. - In the short term, the 09 contract of live pigs can wait for a pullback to go long. In the long - term, the live pig price will fluctuate strongly. Farmers can choose to sell and hedge according to the slaughter rhythm [4]. - The palm oil production continues to grow, lacks news support, and follows the trend of competing oils. The short - term operation suggestion is to sell short on rallies, and the downside space is limited [5]. - The price of domestic soybeans is relatively high, and the auction restrains the rapid price increase in the short term. It is recommended to wait for a pullback and then go long briefly [5]. - The market is waiting for the release of the US first - quarter data. Before the Fed's interest rate cut is realized, the probability of a trend - like market for silver is low [6]. - Concerns about OPEC+ production increase and unclear trade relations between major economies put pressure on oil prices. The oil market has many uncertainties, and short - term trading is advisable [7]. - PX has entered the maintenance season. If crude oil stabilizes, PX is expected to rebound. PTA follows the crude oil fluctuation, and short - term trading is advisable [8]. - The methanol 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or sell short on rallies [9]. - The soda ash 09 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or sell short on rallies [10]. - The caustic soda 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - The natural rubber market is likely to continue the weak consolidation trend [11]. Summaries by Commodity Coke - The average national coke profit per ton is - 9 yuan/ton. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand has increased significantly. The short - term futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. Gold - Stagflation risks and concerns are beneficial to gold. The short - term upward momentum is insufficient, and the mid - term is expected to fluctuate slightly bullishly at a high level [1]. Iron Ore - From April 21st to April 27th, the arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China increased. The demand is good, but the supply is high. The ore price is expected to remain in a low - level shock [3]. Rebar - On April 28th, the domestic steel market prices fluctuated. The steel demand is tepid, and the short - term steel price will fluctuate narrowly [3]. Treasury Bonds - There is an expectation of monetary easing, but the issuance of special treasury bonds will increase the supply. The bond market may fluctuate more, and a mid - term shock approach is appropriate [4]. Live Pigs - On April 28th, the average pork price increased by 1.3%. In the short term, the 09 contract can wait for a pullback to go long, and in the long - term, the price will fluctuate strongly [4]. Palm Oil - As of April 25th, 2025, the national palm oil commercial inventory decreased. The production is increasing, and it is recommended to sell short on rallies [5]. Soybeans - As of April 24th, 2025, the US soybean exports to China increased. The domestic soybean price is high, and it is recommended to wait for a pullback and then go long briefly [5]. Silver - The market is waiting for the US first - quarter data. Before the Fed's interest rate cut is realized, the probability of a trend - like market for silver is low [6]. Crude Oil - Forecasts for oil production in the Permian Basin have been lowered. Concerns about supply and trade relations put pressure on oil prices. Short - term trading is advisable [7]. PTA - PX has entered the maintenance season. PTA follows the crude oil fluctuation, and short - term trading is advisable [8]. Methanol - The methanol price decreased slightly. The domestic methanol start - up is expected to run at a high level, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term [9]. Soda Ash - The soda ash price is stable. The start - up rate has increased slightly, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [10]. Caustic Soda - The caustic soda price is stable. The start - up rate is high, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [10]. Rubber - The price of natural rubber is affected by supply and demand. As it enters the peak cutting season, the market may continue the weak consolidation trend [11].