1月26日，中国金融四十人论坛（CF40）发布的2025年第四季度宏观政策报告认为，2026年逆周期政策 力度是关键。财政政策需保持必要的支出力度。货币政策是重中之重，是激活经济内生增长动力的关键 依托。在力度充分的逆周期政策支持下，中国经济运行有望继续边际改善。 2025年，我国宏观经济出现诸多经济复苏的早期阶段特征：股票市场、人民币汇率、社融增速、企业存 款等金融指标有明显提升，企业盈利止住连续多年的下行趋势，消费、劳动力市场总体运行平稳。 上月召开的中央经济工作会议确定，2026年经济工作将抓好8项重点任务。其中，第一条就是"坚持内需 主导，建设强大国内市场。" 经济复苏的支撑力量主要来自财政、外需和前期的价格调整。CF40资深研究员、中国社科院世界经济 与政治研究所副所长张斌表示，经济复苏仍缺乏可持续的内生动力。这背后的主要原因是，相对于融资 成本而言，企业盈利预期较低，企业投资算不过来账；相对于租房而言，购买和持有住房的成本较高， 买房也算不过来账。 "2026年是非常关键的一年。经济已经初步具备复苏的势头，政策再往前迈一步就能让经济持续复 苏。"他建议，宽松货币政策要通过"改变预期"和"让微观主体 ...

"2026年，我们认为在力度充分的逆周期政策支持下，中国经济运行有望继续边际改善。"中国金融四十 人研究院执行院长郭凯认为，2026年主要发达经济体的需求较大概率继续保持稳健增长，叠加中美经贸 关系有望在短期内企稳，中国经济面临的外部环境在边际改善。此外，2026年是"十五五"开局之年，更 加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策延续，为经济增长提供有力支撑。 上述报告称，综合现有宏观指标表现，中国经济虽面临多重挑战，但仍表现出一系列积极变化。金融市 场较2024年有明显改善，股票、人民币汇率等关键金融资产价格表现强劲。 中国金融四十人论坛资深研究员、中国社科院世界经济与政治研究所副所长张斌强调了货币政策的作 用，他表示，要坚定市场信心，要有明确的态度和尽量少的目标。 中国金融四十人论坛(CF40)26日在北京举行2025年第四季度宏观政策报告发布会。报告指出，要持续保 持经济复苏态势，需要更加积极的逆周期政策。财政政策要保持支出力度，货币政策是激活内需的关 键。 (责任编辑：王晨曦) ...

Economic Performance - In 2025, China's GDP reached 140,187.9 billion yuan, marking a significant milestone as it surpassed 140 trillion yuan for the first time, with a growth rate of 5.0% compared to the previous year, aligning with market expectations and the annual growth target set at the beginning of the year [1][3] Growth Drivers - The primary drivers of economic growth were consumption and exports, with notable contributions from the improvement in manufacturing technology and the development of strategic emerging industries, reflecting a transformation in productivity [3][4] - The stock market showed a significant recovery, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 18% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 30% in 2025 [4] Financing and Corporate Health - Social financing growth reversed its downward trend, increasing from 8.0% at the end of 2024 to 8.3% by the end of 2025, indicating a recovery in overall financing for enterprises, government, and households [4] - Non-financial corporate bank deposits saw a year-on-year growth rate rise from -2.2% in January 2025 to 3.6% by November 2025, suggesting improved cash flow conditions for enterprises [4] Challenges in Demand - Despite positive indicators, challenges remain, particularly the imbalance between strong supply and weak demand, which has become a major constraint on economic performance [6][7] - The decline in private investment and weak consumer sentiment, particularly in the housing market, have contributed to slower income growth and hindered consumption recovery [7][8] Policy Recommendations - To break the negative cycle of declining investment and consumption, it is crucial to improve expectations through policy guidance and institutional optimization, making investments and home purchases more attractive [8] - The focus of monetary policy in 2026 should be on achieving a clear inflation target of around 2%, with potential for further interest rate reductions to lower financing costs for the real economy [10][12]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is expected to stabilize and improve in 2026, driven by counter-cyclical policies aimed at supporting the real estate sector, boosting investment, and stimulating consumption [2][3]. Economic Growth - The GDP growth for 2025 is projected to be around 5%, with a slight decline in growth rate expected in the fourth quarter to approximately 4.6% [3][4]. - The first three quarters of 2025 saw a GDP growth of 5.2%, but the third quarter experienced a slowdown to 4.8%, indicating weakening economic momentum [3]. Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment is forecasted to decline by 2.2% in December 2025, showing a slight recovery from November's -2.6% [9]. - Infrastructure projects are expected to benefit from new policy financial tools, with a 28% increase in project bidding amounts in December [9][10]. - Excavator sales, a key indicator of infrastructure investment, rose by 19.2% year-on-year in December 2025, with domestic sales increasing by 10.9% [9][10]. Consumption Insights - The retail sales growth for December 2025 is predicted to be 1.8%, an increase from the previous month's 1.3% [8]. - Consumer spending showed signs of recovery during the New Year holiday, with a 6.1% year-on-year increase in consumption from January 1 to 3, 2026 [8]. - However, service consumption remains weak due to seasonal effects and high base comparisons from the previous year [8]. Industrial Performance - The industrial output growth for December 2025 is expected to be 4.9%, slightly up from 4.8% in the previous month [5]. - The manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1% in December, indicating a return to expansion after eight months below 50% [7]. - Increased coal consumption by key power plants in December suggests a high level of production activity [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan is experiencing a steady appreciation against the US dollar, driven by multiple factors including year-end settlement demand and expectations of continued monetary easing by the Federal Reserve [1][2][3]. Exchange Rate Performance - As of December 31, the CFETS yuan exchange rate index rose to 97.99, up 0.35% week-on-week; the BIS currency basket index reached 104.67, up 0.25%, marking a new high since April 2025; and the SDR currency basket index hit 92.71, up 0.26%, the highest since March 2025 [1]. - The yuan's midpoint against the US dollar was reported at 7.0288, the highest since September 30, 2024, with a cumulative increase of 1596 basis points in 2025 [1]. - The offshore yuan broke through 6.97 against the US dollar on January 2, reaching its highest level since May 2023 [1]. Factors Influencing Yuan Appreciation - Analysts attribute the yuan's appreciation to the weakening of the US dollar index, which fell below 100, and increased corporate settlement demand at the end of the year [2]. - The seasonal strengthening of the yuan is also linked to the release of accumulated settlement demand from high export growth [2]. - The counter-cyclical policy has moderated the pace of the yuan's appreciation, indicating a preference for a gradual increase in the exchange rate [2]. Outlook for 2026 - The yuan is expected to continue its appreciation trend in 2026, influenced by the relative strength of the US and Chinese economies, changes in US interest rates, and the evolution of China's foreign trade relationships [3][4]. - The potential for a 4-5% annual appreciation of the yuan is seen as not detrimental to China's export sector, with a forecasted exchange rate range against the US dollar between 6.7 and 7.1 [4]. - The CFETS index is projected to fluctuate between 97 and 103, with a maximum appreciation of around 5% anticipated for the year [4].

Group 1: PMI Overview - The manufacturing PMI for December 2025 is reported at 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month and exceeding the market expectation of 49.6%[2] - The non-manufacturing PMI stands at 50.2%, an increase from the previous value of 49.5%[2] Group 2: Economic Drivers - The recovery in PMI indicates effective implementation of incremental policies in Q4, leading to an expansion in investment activities, particularly in the construction sector[4] - A temporary easing of the US-China trade conflict has contributed to a positive trend in exports[4] - Year-end inventory preparations by enterprises have led to a rebound in production and inventory indices[4] Group 3: Sector Performance - In December, the production index rose by 1.7 percentage points to 51.7%, and the new orders index increased by 1.6 percentage points to 50.8%[5] - High-tech manufacturing PMI surged by 2.4 percentage points to 52.5%, while equipment manufacturing and consumer goods sectors also entered the expansion zone[14] - Large enterprises saw a PMI increase of 1.5 percentage points to 50.8%, while small enterprises experienced a decline of 0.5 percentage points to 48.6%[6] Group 4: Trade and Pricing - The new export orders index rose by 1.4 percentage points to 49.0%, indicating sustained export demand[19] - The raw material purchase price index decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 53.1%, while the factory price index increased by 0.7 percentage points to 48.9%[23] Group 5: Construction Sector - The construction PMI increased by 3.2 percentage points to 52.8%, indicating accelerated expansion in construction activities[29] - The new orders index for construction rose by 1.3 percentage points to 47.4%, with a business expectation index of 57.4%[29]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Increase Holding" [4][10]. Core Insights - The industry is experiencing a domestic cyclical recovery, with structural improvements in export conditions. As counter-cyclical policies gradually take effect, the industry's prosperity is expected to continue improving [2]. - Domestic sales of excavators are projected to rebound, supported by counter-cyclical fiscal policies and an upward industry cycle. Although exports face some trade friction risks, major machinery manufacturers have limited exposure to the U.S. market, keeping risks manageable. Leading companies are well-positioned overseas and are entering a harvest phase [4]. - In November 2025, a total of 20,027 excavators were sold, representing a year-on-year increase of 13.9%. Domestic sales accounted for 9,842 units, up 9.11% year-on-year, while exports reached 10,185 units, up 18.8% year-on-year. From January to November 2025, total excavator sales were 212,162 units, a 16.7% increase year-on-year [4]. - The average working hours for major construction machinery products in November 2025 were 84.2 hours, a year-on-year decrease of 13%, but a month-on-month increase of 4.08% [4]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In November 2025, excavator sales were 20,027 units, with domestic sales at 9,842 units and exports at 10,185 units. Year-to-date sales from January to November reached 212,162 units, with domestic sales of 108,187 units and exports of 103,975 units [4]. - The proportion of domestic sales in November was approximately 49%, while exports accounted for about 51%. For the year-to-date period, domestic sales made up about 51%, and exports were around 49% [4]. Working Hours and Utilization Rates - The average working hours for major machinery in November 2025 were 84.2 hours, with excavators averaging 76.5 hours. The month-on-month improvement indicates a recovery trend despite a year-on-year decline [4]. - The utilization rate for major machinery products was 56.5% in November 2025, down 12.1 percentage points year-on-year but up 1.5 percentage points month-on-month [4]. Company Recommendations - Recommended companies include Sany Heavy Industry, Zoomlion, XCMG, Liugong, and Hengli Hydraulic, all rated as "Increase Holding" [4][5]. - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for these companies show a positive trend, with Sany Heavy Industry projected to have an EPS of 1.02 in 2025, while XCMG is expected to reach 0.69 [5].

Group 1 - The year 2025 is characterized by a notable dissonance between macro fundamentals and asset prices, primarily due to supply-side shocks exceeding demand fluctuations [1][2] - The impact of tariff shocks on the US economy continues to contribute to "stagflation," complicating the Federal Reserve's balancing act between unemployment and inflation, making the path to interest rate cuts uncertain [2][3] - The development of AI technology remains a long-term narrative supported by monetary environments and industrial policies, but leading US tech companies are now facing trade-offs between cash flow and return on investment, leading to a convergence of high profit expectations towards reality [3] Group 2 - Looking ahead, China's economic growth rate faces challenges from high base effects, with counter-cyclical policies expected to gradually intensify [5][7] - The overall price decline in China is anticipated to narrow due to low base effects, while nominal GDP growth is expected to rebound quarter by quarter [7]

Macro Insights - The internal economic momentum is weakening, and the policy window is gradually approaching, with a focus on stabilizing consumption and investment through counter-cyclical policies [2] - The "pig cycle" investment paradigm is shifting, with supply reduction in the pig industry driven by profit losses and policy adjustments, but the elasticity of pig prices is expected to be weaker than in previous cycles [3] - The healthcare negotiations in the U.S. are becoming a political tool, with significant implications for the capital markets, as budget agreements remain unresolved [4] Bond Market Analysis - Major economic indicators have further declined, with industrial production growth slowing year-on-year, while fixed asset investment shows an expanding decline [6] - The bond market is currently experiencing a relatively loose funding environment, and investors are advised to adopt a gradually optimistic outlook, with a forecast for the 10-year government bond yield to stabilize around 1.75% [6][5] Real Estate Sector - In the real estate market, new home transactions in 20 cities totaled 735,000 units, down 14.8%, with significant declines in cities like Beijing and Shenzhen [7] - The second-hand housing market showed a slight increase in transactions, with a total of 725,000 units sold, indicating a mixed performance across major cities [7] Company Research - Zhaoli Pharmaceutical is set to acquire a range of trace element injection assets, which will enhance its product structure and leverage synergies, with a favorable market outlook for these products [9] - The acquisition is expected to significantly boost the company's revenue and profit, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 at 655 million, 836 million, and 1.063 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 18, 14, and 11 times [9]

Consumption - In November 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of social retail sales was 1.3%, below the expected 2.9%, marking the lowest point since February 2023[3] - The decline in consumption is attributed to last year's "trade-in" policy raising the base, and a decrease in service consumption after the long holiday[2] - The retail sales of five categories involved in the "trade-in" policy saw a decline, with home appliances and furniture experiencing negative year-on-year growth[4] Investment - From January to November 2025, fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 2.6%, worse than the expected decrease of 2.2%[5] - In November, the year-on-year decline in fixed asset investment was -11.1%, with manufacturing investment improving slightly to -4.4%[13] - Infrastructure investment continued to decline, with narrow and broad infrastructure showing year-on-year decreases of -9.7% and -12.0%, respectively[19] Real Estate - In November 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of national commodity housing sales fell to -26.1%, down from -25.1% in October[23] - Real estate development investment saw a significant decline, with a year-on-year decrease of -31.4% in November, reaching a low level[23] - The two-year compound growth rate for commodity housing sales area improved slightly, from -11.1% in October to -7.9% in November[23]