Group 1: Inflation Data Overview - In October, the CPI increased to 0.2% year-on-year, up from -0.3% in the previous month, and slightly above the expected -0.1%[1] - The PPI recorded a year-on-year decline of -2.1%, an improvement from -2.3% in the previous month, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1%[1] Group 2: Factors Influencing Inflation - The rise in October's CPI was primarily driven by a low base effect and reduced supply in certain food categories, with food CPI increasing by 1.5 percentage points to -2.9% year-on-year[3] - Core CPI rose to 1.2% year-on-year, supported by improved travel demand and rising gold prices, with hotel accommodation and airfare prices increasing by 8.6% and 4.5% respectively[3] - The increase in copper prices, which rose by 7% month-on-month, significantly contributed to the PPI, while coal prices also saw a month-on-month increase of 7.5%[8] Group 3: Future Outlook - The upward pressure on inflation from commodity price increases is expected to continue, but the impact on downstream prices may take time to materialize, with a forecasted PPI of -2.2% year-on-year for Q4[4] - Despite improvements in service consumption and high gold prices supporting core CPI, the overall increase in CPI for the year is expected to be limited due to reduced government subsidies and slow recovery in downstream PPI[4]

Core Viewpoints - The inflation rebound in October is primarily driven by factors other than the anti-involution effect, with significant contributions from commodity price increases [2][60] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 0.2% year-on-year, compared to -0.3% in the previous month, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.1% year-on-year [1][9] Factors Influencing Inflation - **Factor One**: The anti-involution effect has led to an increase in coal prices, but its impact on downstream PPI is limited. In contrast, copper prices, which are less affected by anti-involution, saw a larger increase, contributing significantly to the PPI [2][10][60] - **Factor Two**: The CPI's rise above zero is attributed to a low base and reduced supply in certain food categories, with pork prices remaining low despite the anti-involution impact [2][17][61] - **Factor Three**: Core CPI continued to rise, supported by improved travel demand and rising gold prices. The core service CPI showed better performance than seasonal trends due to holiday travel [3][24][30][62] Future Outlook - The price increases in bulk commodities are expected to continue influencing inflation, but the anti-involution effect on downstream prices may take time to manifest. The PPI is projected to remain around -2.2% year-on-year in the fourth quarter [4][37][62] Regular Tracking - The CPI showed an overall increase, with contributions from both food and non-food items. The food CPI rose by 1.5 percentage points to -2.9% year-on-year, while non-food items like household appliances and communication tools saw a decline [5][40][63] - The overall service CPI increased, with core service CPI performing better than seasonal expectations. However, rental prices remained weak compared to previous years [7][52][63]

Core Viewpoint - Investor confidence in high-risk assets may be overstated, as indicated by Dwyfor Evans, the Asia-Pacific Macro Strategy Head at State Street Global Markets [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Investors are currently buying U.S. stocks while hedging against dollar risk and selling U.S. Treasury bonds [1] - Evans anticipates a gradual rise in U.S. inflation due to increases in both imported and domestic goods prices, suggesting that "3% has become the new 2%" [1] Group 2: Implications for Monetary Policy - The rising inflation is crucial for the Federal Reserve, as fewer rate cuts could lead to a rebound in the dollar [1] - Given the ongoing policy uncertainty, Evans warns that current market risk positions may be overly optimistic [1]

Group 1: Central Bank Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech almost confirms a 25 basis point rate cut on October 29, indicating that the U.S. economic outlook has not changed significantly since September, but labor market risks are rising [2] - European Central Bank President Lagarde reiterated that inflation and economic outlook risks are broadly balanced, keeping all options open regarding future rate cuts, with a 50% probability of a rate cut by Q1 2026 [3] - Bank of England Governor Bailey warned of the coexistence of inflation above target and a weak labor market, with the IMF predicting the fastest price growth among major economies for the UK over the next two years [3] Group 2: Market Reactions - Despite the significant speeches from the three central bank leaders, the impact on the bond market was limited, with UK government bond yields falling between 4.9 to 6.9 basis points [3] - German long-term yields decreased by approximately 3.2 basis points, while U.S. Treasury yields varied from a decrease of 2.1 basis points for 2-year bonds to an increase of 1.3 basis points for 30-year bonds [3] - The EUR/USD rebounded above 1.16, partly benefiting from a weaker dollar, and stock index futures indicate a likely higher opening for the market [3] Group 3: Economic Data - China's September Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.1% month-on-month, ending a three-month decline, while year-on-year it fell by 0.3%, primarily due to a 4.4% drop in food prices [4] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased from 0.5% to 1%, marking a 19-month high, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) remained flat month-on-month and decreased by 2.3% year-on-year [4] - In Australia, the central bank's assistant governor warned that core inflation for the September quarter may exceed expectations, with a 40% probability of a rate cut anticipated in November [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stabilization and recovery of fixed - asset investment growth require the central government to increase fiscal leverage, as real - estate storage and infrastructure funds face challenges [2][8]. - China is undergoing an economic re - balance from investment to consumption. The government's assessment method may shift from GDP to increasing the proportion of consumption in GDP. Future policies may reform the social security system to release consumption potential [2][25]. - A moderate recovery of inflation is a prerequisite for releasing consumption potential. Inflation recovery will drive corporate profit improvement, increase residents' income, and then achieve consumption recovery. Future inflation is expected to stabilize and rebound [2][52]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Investment: Central Fiscal Leverage Expected to Increase - **Real - estate**: The downward inertia is large, policy support is gradually increasing, but demand - side stimulus policies have under - performed expectations. The progress of real - estate storage is accelerating, and central fiscal funds are crucial for breaking the "impossible triangle" among storage parties, sellers, and commercial banks [9][10][11]. - **Infrastructure**: The growth rate of infrastructure investment is declining. As of September 14, the proportion of new special bonds invested in land reserves is 14.3%. If the scale of land - reserve special bonds continues to increase this year, the funds for traditional infrastructure may be less than in 2024. The infrastructure investment structure will continue to be divided, with central - government - led projects stronger and local - government - led projects weaker. The estimated overall infrastructure growth rate in 2025 is about 2.6% [14][18][20]. - **Manufacturing**: "Anti - involution" in emerging industries mainly restricts capital expenditure and capacity expansion, leading to a slowdown in manufacturing investment growth [22]. 3.2 Consumption: Structural Reform of Economic Re - balance - **Policy Support**: A series of consumption - related policies have been introduced, including measures to expand service consumption, financial support for consumption, and special action plans to boost consumption. These policies address both the supply and demand sides of consumption [25]. - **Problems in Consumption**: China's consumption rate is relatively low, mainly due to low household consumption rates. Factors include income polarization, large urban - rural income gaps, an imperfect social security system, and a low proportion of service consumption [28][33][37]. - **Solutions**: The "Boosting Consumption Special Action" addresses key consumption issues from multiple aspects such as income increase, consumption capacity support, service supply improvement, and policy support. Future consumption policies may focus more on service consumption [41][42][50]. 3.3 Inflation: An Important Tool to Stabilize Expectations and Promote Consumption - **Relationship with Consumption**: A moderate recovery of inflation is necessary for releasing consumption potential. Inflation recovery drives corporate profit improvement, increases residents' income, and promotes consumption recovery [52]. - **CPI Differentiation**: There are two significant differentiations in CPI. The core CPI and CPI are diverging, and service consumption and commodity consumption within the core CPI are also diverging. Future consumption policies may shift towards service consumption [55]. - **Inflation Outlook**: Considering the central bank's stance and the expected increase in "anti - involution" policies, future inflation will stabilize and rebound. Although inflation is in a state of "weak reality and strong expectation" in the second half of the year, the data recovery may occur in the first half of next year [58].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - Fixed asset investment data in July showed weakness, indicating a need for structural adjustment in the economy[2] - China's GDP growth in the first half of the year was 5.3%, with a target of 5% for the full year, suggesting a manageable outlook for the second half[2] - Historical data indicates that a significant reduction in industrial long-term loans in 2016 was a key factor in the economic recovery, despite weak financial data[12] Group 2: Market Strategy and Trends - Current market conditions show no significant overheating, with market capitalization expanding faster than trading volume[4] - A-share valuations remain reasonable, with expectations of performance recovery driven by inflation[17] - The average return of equity mixed funds was 2.82%, while stock ETFs averaged 2.85% this week, indicating positive fund performance[36] Group 3: Fixed Income and Bond Market - The 10-year government bond yield is seen as having value around 1.8%, with limited upward movement expected in the near term[23] - The bond market is currently not favorable for trading, suggesting a wait-and-see approach for better opportunities[24] - Recent bond issuance has seen yields priced between 3% and 6%, reflecting the impact of new tax policies[22] Group 4: U.S. Inflation Risks - U.S. core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation is expected to rise, potentially exceeding 3% in the second half of the year[28] - Household consumption capacity remains strong, indicating low recession risks despite rising inflation[26] - The employment market shows signs of recovery, which could further support consumer spending and economic stability[27]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long position recommended [1] - Silver: Long position recommended [1] - Copper: Buy on dips [1] - Zinc: Sell on rallies [1] - Lead: Under pressure [1] - Tin: Rebound and then decline [1] - Aluminum: Rebound under pressure [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure [1] - Industrial silicon: Under pressure [1] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bullish in September [1] - Lithium carbonate: Cautiously bullish [1] Core Views - Overall, the report analyzes various non - ferrous metals and new energy metals, suggesting different investment strategies based on their respective fundamentals, market conditions, and macro - economic factors. For example, gold and silver are expected to rise due to interest - rate cut expectations and geopolitical risks; copper is favored in the long - term due to supply shortages and increasing demand; while zinc is considered a short - position option as supply increases and demand weakens [1][3][7]. Summary by Metal Gold and Silver - **Market Performance**: Gold price center has shifted upwards, and silver has broken through historical highs [2] - **Basic Logic**: US inflation has rebounded (July core PCE price index rose to 2.9% year - on - year), the Fed may cut interest rates, and there are geopolitical conflicts. In the short term, it's difficult for gold to break through the range, but in the long term, it may enter a long - bull market [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: For gold, there is support around 770, and pay attention to the performance at the recent high of 803. For silver, pay attention to the effectiveness of the breakthrough. In the long run, the upward trend of gold and silver remains unchanged [4] Copper - **Market Performance**: Shanghai copper has strengthened in a volatile manner [6] - **Industrial Logic**: Copper concentrate supply is tight, processing fees are deeply inverted. Refined copper production may decline marginally in the future. Demand is expected to pick up during the peak season, and there are contradictions between short - term inventory accumulation and long - term demand growth [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold existing long positions, and new investors can buy on dips. In the long term, be optimistic about copper. Shanghai copper is expected to trade in the range of 78,500 - 81,500 yuan/ton, and LME copper in the range of 9,800 - 10,000 US dollars/ton [7] Zinc - **Market Performance**: Shanghai zinc's rebound is under pressure [10] - **Industrial Logic**: Zinc concentrate supply is abundant in 2025. Demand is weak during the off - season, and domestic inventory has increased [10] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Temporarily wait and see, and in the long term, sell on rallies. Shanghai zinc is expected to trade in the range of 22,000 - 22,600 yuan/ton, and LME zinc in the range of 2,750 - 2,850 US dollars/ton [11] Aluminum - **Market Performance**: Aluminum price rebound is under pressure, and alumina is relatively weak [13] - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas interest - rate cut expectations are strong. Aluminum production has increased slightly, and inventory has accumulated. Alumina supply is expected to be loose in the short term [14] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit and wait and see for Shanghai aluminum, and pay attention to the changes in downstream processing enterprises' operating rates. The main operating range is 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton [15] Nickel - **Market Performance**: Nickel price rebound is under pressure, and stainless steel is also under pressure [17] - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas macro sentiment has weakened. The nickel industry's supply and demand are divided, with refined nickel supply in surplus and nickel sulfate in short supply. Stainless steel inventory decline has slowed down, and the off - season pressure remains [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit and wait and see for nickel and stainless steel, and pay attention to downstream inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is 120,000 - 123,000 yuan/ton [19] Carbonate Lithium - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2511 opened slightly higher, rose and then fell, with the closing gain narrowing [21] - **Industrial Logic**: A mine in Jiangxi has renewed its mining license, but the situation of other mines is uncertain. Production is stable, demand is picking up, and total inventory has declined for three consecutive weeks [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for the price to stabilize in the range of 76,500 - 79,000 yuan/ton [23]

Group 1 - The current price of London gold is reported at $3329.19 per ounce, showing a decline of $8.83 or 0.26%, indicating a weak trend in the gold market as investors remain cautious ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech [1] - Recent U.S. PPI data unexpectedly strengthened, raising concerns about inflation and leading to a decrease in market expectations for significant interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2] - Multiple Federal Reserve officials expressed a cautious stance regarding monetary policy, with varying opinions on potential rate cuts in September, reflecting ongoing concerns about inflation and economic conditions [2] Group 2 - From a technical analysis perspective, gold prices are finding short-term support around $3325, with critical support at the 100-day moving average between $3316 and $3315 [3] - If gold prices fall below the recent low of $3311, it may trigger a downward trend targeting $3300 and potentially the important support zone of $3270-$3265, indicating a possible phase of market topping [3] - The outlook for upward movement shows strong resistance between $3348 and $3350; a successful breakout could lead to a price increase towards $3375 and further to $3400 or even $3435 [3]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs indicates that the momentum of the stock market may soon come to a halt, with increased risks of a downturn in the near future [1] - The firm's "equity asymmetry framework" signals a heightened risk of stock market declines, with a greater than 10% chance of a pullback in the S&P 500 index over the next three months and over 20% in the next 12 months [1] - The recent increase in pullback risk resembles the changes seen before the market downturn in April, suggesting a potential correlation with historical market behavior [4] Group 2 - Analysts highlight a "deteriorating business cycle momentum" and recent weakness in the job market, with fewer new jobs created than expected in recent months [5] - The firm anticipates inflation to rise above 3% in the second half of the year due to the effects of tariffs, which may lead to more accommodative policies from the Federal Reserve [5] - With major stock indices hovering near historical highs, Wall Street remains vigilant for signs of an impending market correction, especially given the S&P 500's 10% increase year-to-date and a 29% rise since its recent low [5]

Core Viewpoint - The market has already priced in expectations for a rate cut in September, but various economic indicators suggest that a rate cut is not guaranteed [1] Group 1 - The report from Galaxy Securities indicates that inflation is expected to rebound in the third quarter [1] - The unemployment rate is projected to rise moderately [1] - The impact of extended tariffs in August is expected to lead to mild price increases [1] Group 2 - There is an increasing likelihood that former President Trump may intervene with the Federal Reserve, potentially accelerating the rate cut process [1] - The Federal Reserve is currently in a "can cut or not cut" phase, indicating that confirmation of a September rate cut requires more data [1]