Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities maintains the judgment that the Federal Reserve will implement rate cuts in September and December, considering the potential impact of tariffs on core goods inflation and a possible slowdown in the labor market [1] Inflation and Tariffs - The June CPI data indicates a rebound in inflation for goods with high import dependence, contradicting claims that tariffs do not translate into consumer prices [1] - The weighted average import tariff rate in the U.S. was only 8.7% in May, and some companies have delayed price transmission by consuming inventory [1] - It is anticipated that the impact of tariffs on inflation will become more evident, potentially pushing U.S. inflation higher in the short term [1] Business Sentiment - A survey by the New York Fed shows that 88% of manufacturing firms and 82% of service firms plan to pass on tariff costs to consumers within three months [1] - Jerome Powell stated during the June FOMC press conference that the Fed needs to observe the impact of tariffs over the summer, suggesting that the rise in inflation may already be within the Fed's expectations [1]

Group 1 - The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for June is expected to show a significant rebound in inflation, which could influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy in the second half of the year [1][4] - The CPI for May showed a year-on-year increase of 2.4% and a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, while core CPI remained at 2.8%, indicating overall moderate inflation pressure [3] - Wall Street anticipates that the June CPI year-on-year growth will rise to 2.7% and month-on-month growth may reach 0.3%, marking a new high for the year [3] Group 2 - The rise in inflation is attributed not only to short-term fluctuations in energy and food prices but also to new tariff measures impacting various sectors, leading to input inflation [3] - The ISM manufacturing report indicates a trend of rising raw material prices, reflecting companies' responses to tariff policies, which could lead to widespread price increases in core goods [3][4] - The Federal Reserve's stance remains cautious, with Chairman Powell emphasizing the need to observe summer price reports to assess changes in inflation trends [4] Group 3 - Market expectations suggest a 50 basis point rate cut by the end of the year, but there is divergence on the timing, with some investors believing that sustained high inflation could delay rate cuts [4] - The recent rebound in the dollar index and rising U.S. Treasury yields indicate increased investor vigilance regarding the potential for rising inflation [4] - The current situation presents challenges for the Federal Reserve, balancing the risk of inflation resurgence against potential growth risks from manufacturing weakness and declining consumer momentum [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that uncertainty and weak demand are impacting corporate investment in the UK [1] - Recent signs of economic weakness have become more pronounced [1] - The Bank of England is closely monitoring the situation regarding the rebound of inflation in the UK [1] - Rising food inflation has been added to the Bank's list of concerns [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, is closely monitoring the resurgence of inflation in the UK [1] Group 1 - The Bank of England is taking a "very close" look at the rising inflation rates in the UK [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the silver T+D prices are experiencing narrow fluctuations due to hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and easing tensions in the Middle East, leading to a decline in silver prices [1] - Powell's testimony before Congress suggests that the Federal Reserve needs more time to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation before considering interest rate cuts, with expectations that inflation will soon begin to rise [2] - The market generally believes that a rate cut is unlikely at the upcoming meeting on July 29-30, with the first cut expected in September [3] Group 2 - Silver T+D prices have recently declined but have shown signs of a rebound, with key support levels identified between 8400-8500 and resistance levels between 8800-8900 [4]

Group 1 - The tax reform bill passed in the House raises concerns about the U.S. budget deficit and the attractiveness of the dollar, leading to uncertainty among stock and bond investors [1] - Hedgeye Risk Management's CEO Keith McCullough believes that the bond and currency markets are sending clear signals, stating that he does not hold any U.S. Treasury bonds and has reduced his gold holdings to a minimum due to rising U.S. economic growth and inflation [1] - McCullough asserts that the U.S. will not enter a recession, and he anticipates that the Federal Reserve will not lower interest rates in the next three to four quarters, which gives him confidence in not holding U.S. government debt [1] Group 2 - McCullough acknowledges the risks associated with U.S. debt and fiscal deficits but believes that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will not fall below 4.43%, contrary to his previous belief that it could easily drop below 4% [1] - The company holds some fixed-income assets, specifically high-yield corporate bonds, and McCullough indicates that the lack of volatility in high-yield bond spreads suggests no imminent widespread recession or decline in corporate profits [1] - McCullough expects the economic outlook to improve from Q4 to Q1 of the following year, which should provide more support for the dollar, while he still recommends going long on the euro, Australian dollar, and European equities, particularly in Germany, Spain, and Belgium [1] Group 3 - McCullough's model suggests that the worst period for the dollar has passed, as he believes the U.S. economy will not enter a recession and inflation will begin to rise [2] - He indicates that all rate cut expectations for the year have been largely eliminated, and any potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve will not be as significant as investors might expect [2]