通胀降温提振降息预期，芝商所"美联储观察工具"显示，交易员对美联储6月实施降息的概 率预期大幅攀升至83%（此前为49.9%）。 当地时间2月13日（周五），美国劳工统计局发布的最新消费者价格指数（CPI）数据显示，美国1月整 体CPI同比上涨2.4%，低于市场预期的2.5%，较2025年12月的2.7%回落0.3个百分点，创下近期通胀新 低；环比经季节性调整后上涨0.2%，同样低于0.3%的市场预期，通胀降温态势显著。核心CPI（剔除食 品和能源）同比上涨2.5%、环比上涨0.3%，均符合市场预期；同比涨幅较前月微降0.1个百分点，为 2021年以来最低水平。 从分项数据来看，各品类价格走势呈现明显分化。住房成本作为CPI的主要拉动项，1月环比仅上涨 0.2%，同比涨幅回落至3%，涨幅收窄态势明显；食品价格环比微涨0.2%，六大杂货品类中五类实现上 涨，居家食品与外出就餐价格分别上涨0.2%和0.1%，食品类全年涨幅为2.9%。能源价格则成为通胀降 温的重要推手，1月环比大幅下降1.5%，其中汽油价格环比降3.2%，全年能源指数同比微降0.1%。车辆 价格表现疲软，新车价格环比仅涨0.1%，二手车和卡车价格 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The current market trading sentiment is cautious, and the volatile market remains unchanged. Fundamental factors continue to support the gold price. For silver, the tightening inventory supports the near - month price. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for now. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 1050 - 1250 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 19000 - 21000 yuan/kilogram [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Shanghai gold fell 0.38% to 1119.74 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver fell 1.54% to 20242.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold rose 0.56% to 5050.90 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver fell 1.88% to 80.69 US dollars/ounce. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond was reported at 4.16%, and the US dollar index was reported at 96.86 [1] - COMEX silver continued its recent strong de - stocking trend, with the total inventory continuously declining and approaching the 390 million - ounce mark (currently 390.466 million ounces), and the inventory decreased by about 4.0454 million ounces in a single day. Mainstream delivery warehouses continued to de - stock, leading to a tightening inventory and supporting the price of the near - month silver contract [2] 3.2 Data Comparison - The report provides a comparison of key gold and silver data on February 10, 2026, and February 9, 2026, including closing prices, trading volumes, open interests, inventories, and precipitation funds of COMEX gold, LBMA gold, SHFE gold, AuT + D, COMEX silver, LBMA silver, SHFE silver, and AgT + D, as well as their daily changes, daily price change rates, and historical quantiles in the past year [5][6] 3.3 Charts - There are multiple charts in the report, including the relationship between COMEX gold price and US dollar index, actual interest rate, trading volume, and total open interest; the relationship between Shanghai gold price, trading volume, and total open interest; the near - far month structure of COMEX gold and Shanghai gold; the relationship between COMEX silver price, trading volume, and total open interest; the near - far month structure of COMEX silver and Shanghai silver; the net long positions of COMEX gold and silver management funds and their prices; the total positions of gold and silver ETFs; and the internal - external price difference statistics and seasonality charts of gold and silver [11][26][40]

Market Overview - Japanese and South Korean stock markets opened higher on February 9, with the Nikkei 225 index rising by 1.62% to 55,130.64 points and the KOSPI index increasing by 4.13% to 5,299.10 points. By 8:20 AM, the Nikkei 225 index had surged over 5% to 57,046.00 points [7] - Gold prices continued to rise, surpassing $5,000 per ounce, with spot gold reported at $5,029.785 per ounce, up over 1% for the day. Spot silver also increased, breaking $80 per ounce, reported at $79.771 per ounce, up over 2.5% [7] - On February 6, U.S. stock indices closed collectively higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 2.47% to 50,115.67 points, the Nasdaq increasing by 2.18% to 23,031.21 points, and the S&P 500 gaining 1.97% to 6,932.30 points [7] - European stock indices also saw gains on February 6, with the FTSE 100 index in London closing at 10,369.75 points, up 0.59%, the CAC 40 index in Paris at 8,273.84 points, up 0.43%, and the DAX index in Frankfurt at 24,721.46 points, up 0.94% [7] Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payroll report for January has been delayed to February 11 due to a temporary government shutdown. Market expectations for job growth are between 60,000 and 80,000. A figure below this range could heighten expectations for interest rate cuts [8] - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January is also set to be released this week, with significant attention on this data as the Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates steady, indicating potential for rate cuts if inflation decreases [8] Corporate News - Elon Musk announced on social media that it is time to return to the Moon on a large scale. Reports indicate that SpaceX has shifted its strategy, postponing its Mars mission originally planned for 2026 to focus on lunar missions instead. The company is planning an unmanned lunar mission in March 2027 [10]

Group 1: Eurozone Inflation Data - The Eurozone's Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January showed a year-on-year rate of 1.7%, down from 1.9% in December and below the market expectation of 1.8% [1] - Core CPI decreased from 2.3% to 2.2%, while services CPI slowed to 3.2%, indicating a continued easing of price pressures across various sectors [1] - There are significant disparities in inflation rates among member countries, with Germany's inflation at 2.1%, slightly above expectations, and France's inflation unexpectedly dropping to 0.4%, marking a nearly five-year low [1] Group 2: European Central Bank (ECB) Meeting Expectations - The market widely anticipates that the ECB will maintain the key interest rate at 2% for the fifth consecutive time during its upcoming meeting, reaffirming the assessment that monetary policy is "in a good place" [3] - The release of inflation data serves as an important reference for the ECB's decision-making ahead of the interest rate meeting [1][3] Group 3: U.S. Economic Context - U.S. Treasury Secretary Becerra's comments on the President's influence over the Federal Reserve's decision-making have raised concerns about the independence of U.S. monetary policy [3] - The U.S. dollar index experienced a slight increase, trading around 97.60, supported by short covering and better-than-expected performance in the January ISM non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index [3] - The market is closely monitoring support levels below 97.00 and resistance around 98.00 for the dollar index [3] Group 4: Currency Market Dynamics - The euro/dollar exchange rate showed slight declines, trading around 1.1800, influenced by the dollar's rebound and the drop in Eurozone core inflation to a near five-year low [3][4] - The British pound/dollar also experienced a slight decline, trading around 1.3650, with pressure from a strong dollar and weak UK economic data, although expectations of the Bank of England maintaining its current stance provided some support [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The Euro is experiencing limited fluctuations against the US Dollar, trading around 1.1805, influenced by a stronger US Dollar and diverging monetary policies between the US and Eurozone [1] Group 1: Currency Exchange Dynamics - The Euro has faced slight pressure due to a stronger US Dollar index, with the exchange rate fluctuating between a high of 1.1838 and a low of 1.1790, indicating a weak consolidation phase [1] - Market focus is on the European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy, with expectations that the ECB will maintain current interest rates and adopt a wait-and-see approach [1] - Eurozone inflation has decreased to its lowest level in over a year, driven by falling energy prices, but this has not prompted the ECB to adjust its policy, with predictions leaning towards stable rates rather than hikes [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - The Federal Reserve has signaled a hawkish stance, delaying expectations for rate cuts, which supports the US Dollar against the Euro [1] - The lack of robust economic recovery in the Eurozone limits the ECB's policy adjustment options, and the market has not fully priced in the ECB's potential rate cuts for the year [1] - Technical analysis indicates a short-term oscillation for the Euro against the Dollar, with resistance at 1.1850 and support at 1.1790, suggesting a need for a breakout to determine future trends [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The Euro's future trajectory will depend on the divergence in monetary policies between the US and Eurozone, as well as the pace of Eurozone inflation and economic recovery [2] - Key upcoming events include ECB statements and US initial jobless claims data, which could influence short-term movements in the Euro [2] - A strong performance in US employment data may further bolster the US Dollar, exerting additional pressure on the Euro [2]

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CHF exchange rate is experiencing narrow fluctuations around 0.7768, with a lack of a clear trend due to a balance of risk factors and policy divergence between the US and Switzerland [1] Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - The core of the fundamental analysis is the policy divergence between the US and Switzerland, alongside a counterbalance of risk aversion [1] - The Federal Reserve's January minutes indicated a hawkish stance, emphasizing the need for more evidence of inflation cooling before considering rate cuts, with a less than 9% probability of a rate cut in March [1] - High interest rate expectations support the USD's yield advantage, attracting capital inflows and providing upward support for the exchange rate [1] - The Swiss National Bank maintains a neutral stance without following the global tightening trend, with the CPI for December 2025 at 1.1%, within the 0-2% target range, indicating no urgent need for tightening [1] - The current CHF exchange rate is considered reasonable, with weak intervention intentions from the central bank, supported by its safe-haven status and moderate economic recovery [1] Group 2: Geopolitical and Market Sentiment - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East and disruptions in Red Sea shipping, have heightened risk aversion, leading to capital inflows into the CHF, which suppresses the exchange rate [1] - The recent pullback in US equities has triggered a sell-off in risk assets, highlighting the USD's safe-haven attributes and attracting some risk-averse capital [1] - The interplay between these factors results in a lack of a clear directional trend for the exchange rate, leading to continued narrow fluctuations [1] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The technical outlook shows a consolidation phase with a balance between bulls and bears, with the exchange rate hovering around the MA5, MA10, and MA20 moving averages [2] - Key resistance levels are identified at 0.7780-0.7800, with a breakthrough potentially leading to a rise towards 0.7850, while support is at 0.7740, with a drop below that level indicating a test of the critical 0.7700 line [2] - Indicators show weak bullish and bearish momentum, with MACD near the zero line and RSI in a neutral range of 48-52, suggesting a potential upcoming breakout [2] - The focus for today is on the US initial jobless claims data, which will directly impact Fed policy expectations and the USD's performance [2]

Group 1 - Eurozone inflation has dropped to its lowest level in over a year, with January inflation at 1.7%, indicating a cooling trend in inflation [1] - Core inflation, excluding volatile items like energy and food, has decreased to 2.2%, suggesting persistent weak inflation conditions [1] - France's January inflation rate fell to a five-year low of 0.4%, while Italy's rate dropped to 1.0%, indicating a general decline in price pressures across the Eurozone [1] Group 2 - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain interest rates unchanged in its upcoming meeting, with no immediate action anticipated due to the current inflation data [1][2] - The market has not priced in any expectations for ECB rate cuts this year, reflecting a cautious outlook on monetary policy [1] - Analysts suggest that if the euro continues to strengthen, it could provide justification for further rate cuts, as a strong euro may suppress import prices and thus inflation [2][3] Group 3 - ECB President Lagarde may address the recent strength of the euro in the upcoming policy statement, highlighting its potential impact on inflation [3] - A significant appreciation of the euro, particularly if it reaches 1.25 against the dollar, could prompt the ECB to reconsider its stance on interest rates [3] - The overall sentiment among analysts leans towards maintaining current rates, but the risk of rate cuts is perceived to be greater than that of rate hikes [3]

Group 1 - Eurozone inflation has decreased to its lowest level in over a year, with January's rate at 1.7%, indicating a trend of cooling inflation [1] - Core inflation, excluding volatile items like energy and food, has dropped to 2.2%, suggesting persistent weakness in inflation [1] - France's inflation rate fell to a five-year low of 0.4%, while Italy's rate decreased to 1.0%, indicating a general reduction in price pressures across the Eurozone [1] Group 2 - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain interest rates unchanged in its upcoming meeting, with no immediate action anticipated due to the current inflation data [1][2] - Analysts suggest that the ECB may express concerns about the recent strength of the euro, which could impact inflation expectations [2][3] - The euro's appreciation against the dollar is partly attributed to uncertainties surrounding U.S. policies and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, domestic commodities reached a peak and then declined, with market sentiment significantly cooling down. Industrial products followed a similar trend, while agricultural products fluctuated downward. The main reasons include the decline of precious metals from their high levels, the mixed US data with the Fed's rate - cut rhythm unchanged, and the rapid changes in geopolitical situations such as in Iran leading to the rise - and - fall of crude oil prices [3]. - Although US inflation continues to slow down, the Fed's rate - cut rhythm has not accelerated further, which has limited impact on boosting market expectations. Domestic policies are starting to take effect, with the coordinated efforts of expanding domestic demand and anti - involution policies expected to improve the long - term low - price situation, but the current weak reality still puts pressure on the rebound of the commodity market. Geopolitical factors such as the situations in Venezuela, Iran, and the Greenland issue are changing rapidly, which may cause disturbances to the prices of energy and metals [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views - **Review**: Domestic commodities in China showed a trend of rising first and then falling this week, with market sentiment cooling down. Industrial products followed the same pattern, and agricultural products declined. The decline of precious metals, mixed US data, and geopolitical changes in Iran were the main influencing factors [3]. - **Overseas**: - In December 2025, the overall CPI in the US increased by 2.7% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month, in line with market expectations. The core CPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, lower than expected. Although inflation is cooling, it is still above the 2% policy target, and the probability of a rate cut in January is extremely low, with June being the mainstream market expectation [3]. - The Fed's latest "Beige Book" shows that the US economic activity is picking up, employment is stable, and wages are growing moderately, strengthening the expectation of a soft landing of the US economy [3]. - US President Trump announced tariffs on countries trading with Iran and eight European countries, which will have an impact on international trade [3]. - **Domestic**: - In December 2025, China's export and import amounts increased year - on - year, and the trade surplus expanded. Fiscal expansion and the high matching of China's advantageous industries with global demand are expected to support export growth [3]. - In December 2025, the stock social financing growth rate decreased slightly, M2 growth rate increased, M1 growth rate decreased, and the "M2 - M1 scissors gap" widened. The financial data showed the characteristics of "abundant in total amount and differentiated in structure" [3]. - The central bank will introduce two policy measures in 2026, which send a signal of coordinated efforts through aggregate and structural policies and reserve space for the use of aggregate tools such as reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts [3]. - **Commodity Views**: Market sentiment has cooled down, and the commodity market has declined in the short term. The Fed's unchanged rate - cut rhythm, the current weak reality in China, and geopolitical factors are the main reasons [3]. PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - US inflation data in December 2025 showed a cooling trend, but it is still above the policy target, and the market has different expectations for the Fed's rate - cut time [7][11]. - The Fed's "Beige Book" reflects the positive situation of the US economy, strengthening the expectation of a soft landing [3]. - US President Trump's tariff announcements on Iran - trading countries and eight European countries will affect international trade and market sentiment [3]. PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - In December 2025, China's export and import amounts increased year - on - year, and the trade surplus expanded. China's exports to non - US economies were strong, while exports to the US continued to decline [23]. - The financial data in December 2025 showed the characteristics of "abundant in total amount and differentiated in structure", with the stock social financing growth rate decreasing slightly, M2 growth rate increasing, M1 growth rate decreasing, and the "M2 - M1 scissors gap" widening [26]. - The central bank will introduce relevant policies in 2026 to support economic transformation and development and reserve space for the use of aggregate tools [3]. PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - High - frequency data on开工率 in the polyester industry chain and the blast furnace开工率 showed certain trends and fluctuations [33][35]. - Data on agricultural product prices such as vegetables, pork, and fruits, as well as the agricultural product wholesale price 200 index, showed different price trends [44].

Group 1: Report's Core View - The copper market is influenced by both bullish and bearish factors, with copper prices oscillating at a high level. Tightness at the mine end and strong overseas fundamentals provide support, but domestic inventory build - up and policy risks limit the upside potential [2][3] - Bullish factors include supply - side issues such as strikes in Chile, mining accidents in Indonesia, and low annual copper processing fees, which put pressure on global smelting capacity and support copper prices; the cooling of US inflation strengthens the expectation of interest rate cuts, and long - term demand from new energy and AI infrastructure boosts copper consumption [2] - Bearish factors are that the continuous build - up of copper social inventory and the expansion of spot discounts reflect low acceptance of high prices by downstream users; the US plan to impose a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran raises concerns about disruptions to copper trade flows and a decline in demand [2] Group 2: Copper Futures Market Data - **Weekly Futures Price Changes**: The latest price of SHFE Copper Main Contract is 100,770 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.63%; SHFE Copper Index - weighted is at 100,799 yuan/ton, down 0.64% weekly. International Copper is at 91,520 yuan/ton, with a 1.52% weekly increase. LME Copper 3 - month is at 13,148.5 dollars/ton, up 3.52% weekly. COMEX Copper is at 599.15 dollars/pound, with a 3.19% weekly increase [4] - **Weekly Changes in Futures Positions and Trading Volume**: The position of SHFE Copper Main Contract increased by 37,259 to 225,933, and the trading volume was 322,422. The position of SHFE Copper Index - weighted decreased by 7,461 to 683,376, and the trading volume was 643,234. The position of International Copper decreased by 267 to 7,136, and the trading volume was 12,196. The position of LME Copper 3 - month decreased by 38,282 to 239,014, and the trading volume was 65,624. The position of COMEX Copper decreased by 2,004 to 141,386, and the trading volume was 58,290 [4] Group 3: Copper Spot Market Data - **Weekly Spot Price Changes**: The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper is 102,575 yuan/ton, up 490 yuan (0.48%) weekly. Shanghai Wumaom is at 102,170 yuan/ton, down 360 yuan (- 0.35%) weekly. Guangdong Southern Reserve is at 102,640 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan (0.08%) weekly. Yangtze Non - ferrous is at 102,940 yuan/ton, up 320 yuan (0.31%) weekly [8][10] - **Weekly Changes in Spot Premiums and Discounts**: Shanghai Non - ferrous premium/discount is - 125 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of - 80 yuan (177.78%). Shanghai Wumaom premium/discount is - 120 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of - 70 yuan (140%). Guangdong Southern Reserve premium/discount is 160 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of 180 yuan (- 900%). Yangtze Non - ferrous premium/discount is - 70 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of - 75 yuan (- 1500%). LME Copper (spot/3 - month) premium is 37.6 dollars/ton, up 20.85 dollars (124.48%) weekly. LME Copper (3 - month/15 - month) premium is 83.5 dollars/ton, down 17.96 dollars (- 17.7%) weekly [10] Group 4: Copper Advanced Data - The copper import profit is - 1,465.85 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 677.34 yuan (85.9%) - The copper concentrate TC is - 46 dollars/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.24 dollars (2.77%) - The copper - aluminum ratio is 4.1989, with a weekly decline of 0.0567 (- 1.33%) - The refined - scrap copper price difference is 3,258.63 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1,575.77 yuan (- 32.59%) [11] Group 5: Copper Inventory Data - **Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Changes**: SHFE Copper warehouse receipts total 160,417 tons, up 49,201 tons (44.24%) weekly. International Copper warehouse receipts total 11,286 tons, up 10,233 tons (971.79%) weekly. SHFE Copper inventory is 180,543 tons, up 35,201 tons (24.22%) weekly. LME Copper registered warehouse receipts are 91,025 tons, down 24,125 tons (- 20.95%) weekly. LME Copper cancelled warehouse receipts are 50,100 tons, up 24,175 tons (93.25%) weekly [15] - **Other Inventory Changes**: LME Copper inventory is 141,125 tons, up 50 tons (0.04%) weekly. COMEX Copper registered warehouse receipts are 331,096 tons, up 9,989 tons (3.11%) weekly. COMEX Copper unregistered warehouse receipts are 207,621 tons, up 13,771 tons (7.1%) weekly. COMEX Copper inventory is 538,717 tons, up 23,760 tons (4.61%) weekly. Copper mine port inventory is 428,000 tons, down 68,000 tons (- 13.71%) weekly. Social inventory is 418,200 tons, up 4,300 tons (1.04%) weekly [17] Group 6: Copper Midstream Production - In November 2025, the monthly refined copper production was 1.236 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 11.9%. The cumulative production from January to November was 13.323 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 9.8% - In November 2025, the monthly copper product production was 2.226 million tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.8%. The cumulative production from January to November was 22.593 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 4.9% [19] Group 7: Copper Midstream Capacity Utilization - In December 2025, the capacity utilization rate of refined copper rods was 51.1%, with a month - on - month decrease of 12.21 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 15.06 percentage points - In December 2025, the capacity utilization rate of scrap copper rods was 20.59%, with a month - on - month decrease of 3 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 6.9 percentage points - In December 2025, the capacity utilization rate of copper strips was 64.48%, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.96 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 9.8 percentage points - In December 2025, the capacity utilization rate of copper bars was 56.72%, with a month - on - month increase of 2.64 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.46 percentage points - In December 2025, the capacity utilization rate of copper tubes was 61.59%, with a month - on - month increase of 1.9 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 18.99 percentage points [21][22] Group 8: Copper Element Imports - In December 2025, the monthly import of copper concentrates was 2.704298 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 7%. The cumulative import from January to December was 30.319797 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 8% - In November 2025, the monthly import of anode copper was 58,333 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 16%. The cumulative import from January to November was 688,621 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 15% - In November 2025, the monthly import of cathode copper was 269,205 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 25%. The cumulative import from January to November was 3,085,712 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 8% - In November 2025, the monthly import of scrap copper was 208,143 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 20%. The cumulative import from January to November was 2,103,603 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 4% - In December 2025, the monthly import of copper products was 437,408.903 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 19%. The cumulative import from January to December was 5,320,669.5 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 6.4% [24]