Core Insights - The market's expectation for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has increased following the release of lower-than-expected CPI data for July [1] - The July CPI year-on-year remained at 2.7%, below the expected 2.8%, while the month-on-month increase was 0.2%, aligning with market expectations [1] - The core CPI for July rose by 3.1% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 3%, marking the highest level since February [1] - Following the data release, traders adjusted their bets on a September rate cut, with the probability now at 95% [1] Market Reactions - After the CPI data was released, COMEX gold futures saw a slight decline of 0.15%, closing at $3399.60 per ounce [1] - The China Gold ETF (518850) fell by 0.39%, while the Gold Stock ETF (159562) decreased by 0.06% [1] Analysis and Outlook - The moderate performance of the July CPI data injected a brief sense of optimism into the market, but the overall inflation growth rate being below expectations, combined with weak non-farm employment data, reinforced the anticipation of a September rate cut [1] - Concerns regarding data quality and upward pressure on core CPI suggest that investors should remain cautious [1] - Short-term market volatility may increase, but the long-term trend will depend on the Federal Reserve's policy direction and the evolution of the global macroeconomic environment [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the market's expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have increased following the release of lower-than-expected CPI data for July [1] - The July CPI data showed a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, which was below the expected 2.8%, while the month-on-month increase was 0.2%, aligning with market expectations [1] - The core CPI for July rose by 3.1% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 3%, marking the highest level since February [1] Group 2 - Following the CPI data release, traders raised their bets on a September interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with the current probability estimated at 95% [1] - Analysts noted that the moderate performance of the July CPI data injected a brief sense of optimism into the market, but the overall inflation growth rate being below expectations, combined with weak non-farm employment data, reinforced the expectation for a rate cut in September [1] - There are indications of caution among investors due to data quality issues and upward pressure on core CPI, suggesting that while short-term market volatility may increase, the long-term trend will depend on the Federal Reserve's policy direction and the evolution of the global macroeconomic environment [1]

巴克莱银行经济学家Bumki Son表示："虽然通胀仍略高于韩国央行目标，但由于经济仍低于潜在产出水平，且实际通胀和预期通胀总体稳定，仍有考虑降息 的空间。" 通胀放缓之际，美国上周刚刚决定对大多数韩国进口商品加征15%关税。这项临时协议让韩国避免了特朗普总统此前威胁的25%最坏情况，但仍意味着关税 从近几个月的10%水平全面提升。韩国年出口额相当于其国内生产总值的40%以上。 智通财经APP注意到，韩国消费者通胀增速放缓，为央行重启降息周期提供了更多理由。当前这个依赖贸易的经济体正面临美国加征关税带来的冲击。 韩国统计厅周二公布的数据显示，7月消费者价格同比上涨2.1%，较6月的2.2%有所放缓，与调查经济学家的预估中值一致。根据韩国统计局数据，剔除食 品和能源价格的核心通胀率7月维持在2%，与6月持平。 韩元近几个月的走强也为当局考虑放宽政策创造了条件，该货币是今年对美元涨幅最大的货币之一。 7月食品和非酒精饮料价格同比上涨3.5%，交通成本下降0.2%。教育价格上涨2.6%。住房、水电和燃料成本上涨1.8%。餐饮住宿价格上涨3.2%。 韩国央行政策委员会将于8月28日召开下次会议。在6月和7月暂停降息周 ...

Core Insights - Japan's private sector activity continues to expand at the beginning of the third quarter, but concerns over tariffs are a significant drag on growth [1] Group 1: Economic Activity - The initial PMI data from S&P Global indicates that while private sector activity is expanding, trade policy uncertainty is dampening optimism among service and manufacturing sectors regarding annual output [1] - Manufacturing output declined again in July, with manufacturers facing a continuous decrease in new orders as clients adopt a wait-and-see approach, contrasting with robust growth in the services sector [1] Group 2: Business Confidence - Business confidence is at its second-lowest level since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, leading to a slowdown in hiring activities [1] Group 3: Cost Pressures and Inflation - Companies report a continued easing of cost pressures, suggesting that inflation may further cool during the summer months [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market experienced mixed results on July 18, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 142.30 points to close at 44,342.19, a decrease of 0.32% [1] - The S&P 500 index decreased by 0.57 points to 6,296.79, reflecting a change of -0.01%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 10.01 points to 20,895.66, an increase of 0.05% [1] - Among the sectors in the S&P 500, six sectors declined while five sectors advanced, with the energy and healthcare sectors leading the declines at 0.96% and 0.60%, respectively [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Department of Commerce reported that new housing starts in June reached 1.321 million units, exceeding market expectations of 1.3 million and the revised figure of 1.263 million in May [1] - New housing permits also surpassed expectations, totaling 1.397 million in June, higher than the anticipated 1.38 million and the revised 1.394 million in May [1] Group 3 - The preliminary consumer confidence index for July was reported at 61.8, above the market expectation of 61.4 and the previous month's figure of 60.7 [2] - The expectation for inflation over the next year decreased from 5% to 4.4%, aligning with market forecasts [2] - Reports indicated that the Trump administration is negotiating to impose tariffs of 15% to 20% on EU imports, with a potential increase to 30% if no trade agreement is reached by August 1 [2] Group 4 - Despite Netflix's second-quarter earnings exceeding expectations, the company's stock fell by 5.1% due to forecasts of declining operating margins in the second half of the year [2]

Group 1: Inflation Data and Market Reaction - The UK June CPI year-on-year growth unexpectedly dropped to the Bank of England's target level of 2.0%, with core CPI falling to 3.9% [1] - All key inflation indicators significantly underperformed expectations, leading to strong market anticipation of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Bank of England on August 1 [1] - Following the inflation data release, the British pound (GBP) experienced a sharp decline against major currencies, with GBP/USD falling below 1.28 [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Risks - Analysts caution that the current decline in GBP may have fully priced in the expectation of a rate cut, suggesting a potential rebound risk [2] - The Bank of England's communication prior to the August meeting could influence GBP, especially if officials temper aggressive rate cut expectations [2] - Stronger-than-expected UK economic activity data could undermine market bets on aggressive rate cuts by the Bank of England [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis and Political Factors - GBP/USD has broken below a short-term upward trend line, with key support located in the 1.2750-1.2700 range [3] - The upcoming economic policies of the new government (Labour Party) may impact market confidence [3] - Future movements of GBP will depend on the Bank of England's guidance, key economic data performance, and the Federal Reserve's policy direction [3]

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to implement an unexpected easing policy, with a forecast of a third 25 basis points rate cut due to easing inflation pressures and slowing economic growth [1][2] - A survey of 37 economists indicates that 31 expect the RBA to lower the official cash rate to 3.60% during the upcoming meeting, while only 6 predict it will remain unchanged [1] - The Australian economy is projected to grow by 1.6% this year and 2.3% in 2026, which is a downward revision from previous estimates [2] Group 2 - Over 60% of economists surveyed anticipate another 25 basis points cut this quarter, bringing the cash rate down to 3.35% [1] - Inflation has decreased from 2.5% at the beginning of the year to 2.1% in May, with expectations for an average of 2.6% in 2025 and 2.7% in 2026, remaining within the RBA's target range [2] - The Australian dollar has appreciated over 6% this year, driven by a general weakening of the US dollar, with expectations for a further 2% increase in the next six months [2]

Core Viewpoint - The softening of core service prices is beneficial for cooling inflation [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell highlighted that the decline in core service prices contributes positively to the overall inflation reduction [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Gold**: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, possibly near the end of the trend. Last week, the cooling of US inflation strengthened the expectation of interest rate cuts, leading to a double - drop in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields. The attack on a nuclear facility in Iran boosted safe - haven demand, and central bank gold purchases and ETF inflows jointly boosted the gold price. This week, focus on the Fed's interest - rate meeting and retail data. Geopolitical risks may push up the gold price, and it is expected to maintain high - level volatility. The medium - term upward trend remains unchanged, but be vigilant against the impact of hawkish statements from the Fed or better - than - expected economic data [7]. - **Silver**: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in an upward channel, and it may be close to the end of the trend. Safe - haven demand pushed the silver price to a 13 - year high, but the game of Fed policies led to profit - taking, resulting in high - level volatility throughout the week. The strong industrial attribute (surge in photovoltaic demand and repair of the gold - silver ratio), combined with the weakening US dollar, magnifies the volatility. Next week, focus on the Fed's interest - rate meeting and US economic data. Geopolitical risks and industrial supply gaps support a relatively strong oscillation. Be vigilant against policy reversals and the pressure of long - position profit - taking. The logic of catch - up growth remains unchanged, but the volatility intensifies [34]. 3. Summary by Directory Gold Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - **Trend Judgment**: The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in an upward channel, possibly near the end of the trend [7]. - **Trend Logic**: Last week, US inflation cooling, geopolitical events, central bank purchases, and ETF inflows boosted the gold price. This week, focus on the Fed's meeting and data. Geopolitical risks may push up the price, but beware of Fed's hawkish statements and strong economic data [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: It was expected that the main gold contract 2508 would fluctuate in the short term, and it was recommended to wait and see. The lower support was 738 - 746, and the upper pressure was 800 - 808 [11]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: It is expected that the main gold contract 2508 will mainly fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see. The lower support is 774 - 782, and the upper pressure is 800 - 808 [12]. - **Related Data Situation** - Data on Shanghai Gold and COMEX gold price trends, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury yield, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference are presented in graphical form [20][22][24] Silver Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - **Trend Judgment**: The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is in an upward channel, possibly near the end of the trend [34]. - **Trend Logic**: Safe - haven demand pushed the silver price to a 13 - year high, but Fed policy games led to profit - taking. Strong industrial attributes and a weak US dollar magnify volatility. Next week, focus on the Fed's meeting and economic data. Geopolitical risks and industrial gaps support a relatively strong oscillation. Be vigilant against policy reversals and profit - taking pressure [34]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see [35]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: It was expected that the silver contract 2508 would run strongly, with the lower support range at 8300 - 8500 and the upper pressure at 8900 - 9000 [37]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: It is expected that the silver contract 2508 will run strongly, with the lower support range at 8600 - 8800 [37]. - **Related Data Situation** - Data on Shanghai Silver and COMEX silver price trends, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference are presented in graphical form [44][46][49]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term bearish rating on zinc, with a trend strength of - 1, indicating a weak bearish outlook [1]. 2. Report's Core View - The zinc market is expected to experience a short - term decline, influenced by factors such as the cooling of US inflation and changes in employment data [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 22,085 yuan/ton, down 0.25%, and the LME zinc 3M electronic trading closed at 2,651 dollars/ton, down 0.28% [1]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract was 118,688 lots, down 51,539 lots; the LME zinc trading volume was 9,627 lots, up 2,500 lots. The open interest of SHFE zinc main contract was 121,089 lots, down 4,690 lots; the LME zinc open interest was 206,632 lots, down 1,890 lots [1]. - **Premium and Discount**: Shanghai 0 zinc premium was 260 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; LME CASH - 3M discount was - 32.08 dollars/ton, up 0.97 dollars/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 5,133 tons, up 2,058 tons; LME zinc inventory was 132,025 tons, down 550 tons [1]. 3.2 News - After the CPI data, US PPI inflation also cooled. In May, the core PPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month, lower than expected, and the growth rate hit a new low in nearly a year, which led to an increase in the expectation of two interest rate cuts by the Fed this year. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was slightly higher than expected, and the number of continuing claims soared to the highest level since the end of 2021 [1].