影响上，日内因观望情绪而先行震荡波动，到晚间时段，美国12月CPI意外降温，通胀数据不及预期， 交易员加码押注美联储4月降息，推动金价再创历史新高，但交易员获利了结导致黄金回吐日内全部涨 幅，不过，由于逢低买盘，以及持续的地缘政治和经济不确定性推动了避险需求，有所止跌。 展望今日周三（1月14日）：国际黄金开盘，延续隔夜尾盘回升之力，先行走强，虽然美元指数近期偏 强表现，但也难以对金价产生持续压力，金价将继续受到降息周期，以及地缘局势避险需求而维持看涨 前景，操作保持低多不变。 1月14日：上交易日周二（1月13日）：国际黄金微幅刷新高点后，多头动力减弱，震荡收跌，但仍运行 在短期均线上方，技术看涨前景良好，基本面也无较大且持续的看空预期，故此，操作上，依然保持低 多看涨不变。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于4603.39美元/盎司，日内先行震荡盘整运行，延续到美盘时段，多头再度 发力，连续反弹走强，录得日内高点4634.43美元，但最终震荡回撤，并至盘尾触及日内低点4569.74美 元，最终有所止跌回升，收于4586.43美元，日振幅64.69美元，收跌16.96美元，跌幅0.37%。 但如公布结果整体好于预期 ...

今日周三(1月14日)亚盘时段，COMEX白银目前交投于89.12一线上方，今日开盘于86.90美元/盎司，截 至发稿，comex白银暂报89.57美元/盎司，上涨3.12%，最高触及89.90美元/盎司，最低下探86.75美元/盎 司，目前来看，comex白银盘内短线偏向震荡走势。 3月份的白银期货多头已重新占据主导地位，下一个上涨目标是收盘价高于坚实的技术阻力位90.00美 元。空头的下一个下跌目标是收盘价低于坚实的支撑位75.00美元。首个阻力位见于今日创下的历史高 点89.215美元，随后是90.00美元。下一个支撑位见于隔夜低点83.355美元，然后是82.00美元。 摩根大通首席执行官杰米.戴蒙周二早些时候在该银行发布第四季度财报后对记者表示："我们认识的所 有人都相信美联储的独立性。"戴蒙说："任何削弱这种独立性的行为可能都不是个好主意，在我看来， 这会产生相反的效果，会推高通胀预期，并可能随着时间的推移提高利率。" 但美国检察官珍妮.皮罗连夜释放信号，其领导的华盛顿办公室无意停止对美联储及鲍威尔的法律行 动。她在社交平台X发文称："本办公室曾多次联系美联储讨论成本超支及主席国会证词事宜，均未获 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US core CPI inflation has slowed down, Trump has cancelled the meeting with Iran, and gold prices have continued to reach new highs. Although the bet on a January interest rate cut has almost disappeared, due to geopolitical tensions and Fed turmoil, gold prices remain strong. The premium of Shanghai gold has converged to -4 yuan/gram [4]. - Core CPI inflation has slowed down, Trump has cancelled the meeting with Iran, and silver prices have continued to rise. The premium of Shanghai silver has expanded to 2,600 yuan/gram, and domestic sentiment has heated up again. Due to geopolitical concerns and high - sentiment, silver prices also remain strong [5]. - After Trump's inauguration, the world has entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation. Gold prices are difficult to fall. Recently, the expectation of Fed interest rate cuts and optimistic expectations for the Russia - Ukraine peace talks have jointly affected the market. Coupled with liquidity concerns, there is still upward momentum for gold prices, but it is limited [9]. - After Trump's inauguration, silver prices still mainly follow gold prices. Concerns about tariffs have a stronger impact on silver prices, and silver prices are prone to larger increases [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The US core CPI inflation slowed down, Trump cancelled the meeting with Iran, and gold prices continued to reach new highs. The three major US stock indexes closed down across the board, and the three major European stock indexes closed mixed. US bond yields were mixed, with the 10 - year US bond yield rising 0.40 basis points to 4.179%. The US dollar index rose 0.28% to 99.18, and the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar to 6.9736. COMEX gold futures fell 0.44% to $4,594.40 per ounce [4]. - **Silver**: Core CPI inflation slowed down, Trump cancelled the meeting with Iran, and silver prices continued to rise. The three major US stock indexes closed down across the board, and the three major European stock indexes closed mixed. US bond yields were mixed, with the 10 - year US bond yield rising 0.40 basis points to 4.179%. The US dollar index rose 0.28% to 99.18, and the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar to 6.9736. COMEX silver futures rose 2.08% to $86.86 per ounce [5]. 3.2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis of gold is - 2.56, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is neutral. The gold futures warehouse receipts are 98,283 kilograms, a decrease of 630 kilograms, which is bearish. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish. The main net position is long, and the long position of the main force has increased, which is bullish [4]. - **Silver**: The basis of silver is + 26, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is neutral. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts are 630,066 kilograms, an increase of 19,577 kilograms, which is bullish. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish. The main net position is long, and the long position of the main force has increased, which is bullish [5]. 3.3. Today's Focus - Time TBD: China's December imports and exports and trade balance, and possibly the incremental social financing scale, new RMB loans from January to December, and money supply such as December M2; the US Supreme Court may make a ruling on the Trump tariff case [14]. - 16:20: Speech by European Central Bank Deputy President de Guindos [14]. - 17:15: Speech by Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Alan Taylor [14]. - 21:30: US November PPI [14]. - 22:50: Speech by Philadelphia Fed President Paulson on the economic outlook [14]. - 23:00: US December existing - home sales annualized total, and speech by Fed Governor Milan on supervision and monetary policy [14]. - 23:30: Speech by Bank of England Deputy President Dave Ramsden [14]. - Next day 01:00: Speech by Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari and participation in a discussion by Atlanta Fed President Bostic [14]. - Next day 03:00: Release of the Fed's "Beige Book" on economic conditions, and opening remarks by New York Fed President Williams [14]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The basis of gold is - 2.56, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The gold futures warehouse receipts are 98,283 kilograms, a decrease of 630 kilograms [4]. - **Silver**: The basis of silver is + 26, with the spot at a premium to the futures. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts are 630,066 kilograms, an increase of 19,577 kilograms [5]. 3.5. Positioning Data - **Gold**: The main net position is long, and the long position of the main force has increased. As of January 13, 2026, the long position volume is 180,315, an increase of 1.73% from the previous day; the short position volume is 48,004, a decrease of 2.30% from the previous day; the net position is 132,311, an increase of 3.28% from the previous day [4][30]. - **Silver**: The main net position is long, and the long position of the main force has increased. As of January 13, 2026, the long position volume is 359,134, an increase of 0.01% from the previous day; the short position volume is 293,066, a decrease of 0.83% from the previous day; the net position is 66,068, an increase of 3.90% from the previous day [5][32].

张尧浠：美CPI弱于预期、金价维持看涨前景不变 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于4603.39美元/盎司，日内先行震荡盘整运行，延续到美盘时段，多头再度发力，连续反弹走强，录得日内高点4634.43美元， 但最终震荡回撤，并至盘尾触及日内低点4569.74美元，最终有所止跌回升，收于4586.43美元，日振幅64.69美元，收跌16.96美元，跌幅0.37%。 影响上，日内因观望情绪而先行震荡波动，到晚间时段，美国12月CPI意外降温，通胀数据不及预期，交易员加码押注美联储4月降息，推动金价再创历 史新高，但交易员获利了结导致黄金回吐日内全部涨幅，不过，由于逢低买盘，以及持续的地缘政治和经济不确定性推动了避险需求，有所止跌。 展望今日周三(1月14日)：国际黄金开盘，延续隔夜尾盘回升之力，先行走强，虽然美元指数近期偏强表现，但也难以对金价产生持续压力，金价将继续 受到降息周期，以及地缘局势避险需求而维持看涨前景，操作保持低多不变。 日内将重点关注美国11月零售销售月率，美国11月PPI年率及月率，还有美国第三季度经常帐(亿美元)、美国10月商业库存月率、美国12月成屋销售总数 年化(万户)等数据，目前整体预期是偏向 ...

格隆汇1月14日｜美国总统特朗普驳斥了摩根大通CEO戴蒙对司法部调查美联储一事的批评，称戴蒙认 为他在削弱央行独立性的说法是"错误的"。"我认为我正在做的事情没有问题，"特朗普表示，"而且美 联储里确实有一个糟糕的人。"周二稍早，戴蒙对司法部调查鲍威尔表示担忧。他说："我们认识的每一 个人都相信美联储的独立性。任何削弱这种独立性的做法可能都不是一个好主意。在我看来，这将产生 相反的后果——推高通胀预期，并可能随着时间推移抬高利率。"在被问及上述言论时，特朗普回应 称："我认为他错了。" 来源：格隆汇APP ...

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2026年01月13日16时52分 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡偏强，沪金主力收涨1.01%，沪银主力收涨5.90%，铂金主力收跌3.32%，钯金主力收涨跌5.22%。①核心逻辑， 短期避险方面，贸易战避险消退，地缘异动风险上升；美国就业走弱通胀温和，降息预期支撑仍存。②避险属性方面，美联储主席 鲍威尔因总部翻修案深陷刑事调查这一"黑天鹅"事件，直接动摇了货币政策独立性与美元信用基石，导致长期通胀预期脱锚。美 国抓捕马杜罗震惊世界，美伊等地缘异动风险上升。③货币属性方面，美国12月就业增长几乎停滞，失业率下降缓解劳动力市场 恶化担忧。美国11月核心CPI同比上涨2.6%，创下2021年初以来最慢增速，低于市场预期的3%。美联储12月在重重分歧中下调利 率，暗示将暂停行动明年或仅降息一次。鲍威尔指出，美联储的利率政策已处于良好位置，可以应对未来经济走势。目前市场预期 美联储26年1月不降息概率维持在80%附近，下次降息或到4月。美元指数和美债收益率震荡偏强；④商品属性方面，白银受到供 应偏紧支撑。铂金氢能产业铂基催化剂需求预期强劲。钯金短期需求仍有韧性，长期面临 ...

Core Insights - Gold prices surged past $4,600 per ounce, marking a historic high driven by geopolitical uncertainties and Federal Reserve policy fluctuations [1] - The surge in gold prices reflects heightened investor demand for safe-haven assets amid concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and ongoing geopolitical tensions [1] Geopolitical Factors - Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif stated that Iran is prepared for any potential military actions from the U.S., indicating a readiness for a strong response [2] - Hungary's Foreign Minister warned that military involvement by the UK and France in Ukraine could lead to direct conflict between NATO and Russia, potentially dragging Hungary into war [2] - Greenland's autonomous government rejected U.S. takeover, emphasizing its status as part of Denmark and NATO, and warned that military actions could lead to NATO's dissolution [2] Market Reactions - Silver prices also saw a significant increase, reaching a historic high of $86.24 per ounce, closing at $85.15, with a rise of 6.5% [2] - The small market capacity of silver makes it more sensitive to capital inflows, resulting in more pronounced price movements compared to gold [2] Technical Analysis of Gold - Recent price movements indicate a potential "false breakout" above the $4,600 level, driven more by fundamental news than technical indicators [3] - The market is currently experiencing a high volatility phase, with potential for price corrections if supportive news does not materialize [3] - Key support levels to watch include $4,560 and $4,520, while resistance remains at the $4,600 mark [3] Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic indicators to be released include the NFIB Small Business Confidence Index and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December, which may influence market sentiment [4][5]

宏 观 研 究 美国：消费者信心持续修复 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.01.11 2026-01-13 宏 观 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 ——海外经济政策跟踪 本报告导读： 本周高频数据显示，美国经济仍具有韧性，短期降息预期有所回落，通胀预期小幅 回升。特朗普在多项对外议题上释放较强硬的干预信号，全球地缘不确定性继续抬 升，大宗价格持续上涨。后续关注特朗普对美联储主席的提名情况。 投资要点： [Table_Summary] 全球大类资产表现。本周（2026.1.2-2026.1.9），风险资产多数上涨。 主要经济体股市多数上涨，大宗商品价格大多上涨。债市方面，10 年期美债收益率上涨 5.7%，国内 10Y 国债期货价格下跌 0.1%，中 债总全价指数下降 0.2%。外汇市场方面，美元指数较前一周上涨 0.7%，人民币升值，美元兑人民币汇率收 6.98，日元贬值。 经济：美国方面：2025 年 12 月美国失业率、制造业 PMI 回落，服 务业 PMI 回升，1 月消费者信心持续修复，通胀预期小幅回升。欧 洲方面：通胀有所回落。 政策：美国方面：就业 ...

1月13日，在全球金融市场风云变幻的2026年初，黄金价格犹如脱缰野马，一举突破每盎司4600美元的 历史关口，创下令人瞠目结舌的新纪录。这一波金价暴涨，不仅点燃了投资者的避险热情，更揭示了地 缘政治不确定性与美联储政策动荡交织下的市场深层逻辑。作为传统避险资产的黄金，正处于前所未有 的强势周期中，其背后的驱动力量值得我们深入剖析。从鲍威尔刑事调查的突发事件，到美元疲软和通 胀预期，再到全球地缘紧张局势的持续发酵，这些因素共同铸就了黄金的黄金时代。尽管市场短期波动 可能加剧，但黄金的牛市格局短期内难以逆转。展望未来，随着美联储决策依赖数据和全球风险的演 化，黄金仍有上行空间，投资者应密切关注本周的经济数据和法院裁决。 当前盘面来看，目前冲高回落有顶部形构图，今天要注意周期变化！在黄金阶段性突破4550后，连续一 个交易的上涨，现在黄金已经走高至4630，也就是说，黄金向上突破了80美金，其实这个力度不管走多 少都合理，属于市场正常的避险价值体现，前面强调的，黄金上涨后不猜顶，也就基于这个原则。那 么，在原则之内，如果要出现调整空间，也需要做出应对策略，周一的大涨，技术面日线表现不明显， 但H4周期开始有顶部形 ...

这些不确定因素的累积效应，使得黄金的支撑背景短期内难以改变。值得注意的是，美国最高法院即将就特朗普根据《国际紧急经济权力法》实施的关税政 策做出裁决，最快在本周公布，这可能进一步影响全球贸易格局和通胀预期。在地缘风险高企的时期，黄金的历史角色就是充当"危机保险"，其价格往往与 风险事件正相关，这次多重地缘冲突的交织，无疑为金价提供了额外的上涨动能。美联储政策与通胀展望：降息预期支撑黄金长期牛市美联储的政策路径是 影响黄金价格的关键变量。尽管美联储预计在1月27-28日的会议上维持利率不变，但市场仍预期今年晚些时候将再降息两次，这提振了对黄金的需求。纽约 联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯在周一的讲话中，进一步澄清了这一前景。他指出，当前通胀受关税等因素影响有所上行，约上升0.5个百分点，主要由美国民众承 担，但潜在趋势有利，并未出现广泛物价压力。他预计通胀率将在2026年上半年达到峰值，随后逐渐放缓，并在2027年回落至2%的目标水平。 美元短期面临交错因素，包括稳定的宏观背景与地缘风险的支撑，但美联储独立性风险和关税裁决预期将推动美元走软，这间接利好黄金。综上所述，黄金 价格一度突破4600美元大关，是多重不确定性合力 ...