Group 1: Precious Metals Market Overview - The precious metals sector has regained focus, with COMEX silver futures reaching a record high of $57.245 per ounce, marking a weekly increase of 13% [1] - Gold and copper prices have also surged, with COMEX gold surpassing $4263 per ounce and LME copper nearing historical highs, indicating a collective rally in precious metals [1] - The significant rise in silver prices is attributed to global economic uncertainties and rising inflation expectations, providing strong support for precious metals [1][2] Group 2: Silver Market Dynamics - As of November, COMEX silver futures have accumulated a 16% increase, with the Shanghai silver main contract reaching a peak of 13239 yuan per kilogram [1] - The iShares Silver Trust currently holds 15610.54 tons of silver, reflecting strong investment interest [2] - The silver market is experiencing increased speculative activity, with a rise in net long positions, although liquidity risks may amplify short-term volatility [2] Group 3: Supply and Demand Outlook - The World Silver Association projects a decline in global silver demand to 1.12 billion ounces by 2025, a 4% year-on-year decrease [2] - However, supply is expected to face a larger deficit, with an estimated shortfall of 9.5 million ounces in 2025, marking the fifth consecutive year of supply deficit [2] Group 4: Long-term Price Predictions - UBS has raised its silver price forecast, predicting it could reach $60 per ounce by 2026, with potential spikes to $65 per ounce, although such levels may not be sustainable [3] Group 5: Broader Market Sentiment - Gold prices have also seen significant gains, surpassing $4200 per ounce with a year-to-date increase of over 50%, driven by high U.S. debt, geopolitical uncertainties, and central bank gold purchases [4] - Copper prices have risen sharply, reflecting optimistic expectations for global economic growth, with LME copper reaching approximately $11210 per ton [5] - Morgan Stanley forecasts copper prices to rise to $12000 per ton by Q1 2026, indicating strong future demand [5]

Group 1: Precious Metals Market Overview - The precious metals sector has regained focus, with COMEX silver futures reaching a historical high of $57.245 per ounce, marking a weekly increase of 13% [1] - Gold and copper prices have also surged, with COMEX gold surpassing $4263 per ounce and LME copper nearing historical highs, indicating a collective rally in precious metals [1] - Silver has led the charge with a cumulative increase of 16% in November, driven by global economic uncertainty and rising inflation expectations [1][2] Group 2: Investment Trends - The largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, currently holds 15,610.54 tons, reflecting strong investment interest [2] - Technical analysis suggests a bullish outlook for silver, attracting speculative investors [2] - The speculative net long positions in COMEX silver futures have increased, indicating heightened market activity, although liquidity risks may amplify short-term volatility [2] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The World Silver Association forecasts a decline in global silver demand to 1.12 billion ounces by 2025, a 4% year-on-year decrease [2] - However, supply is expected to face a larger deficit, with a projected shortfall of 9.5 million ounces over the next five years [2] Group 4: Long-term Price Predictions - UBS has raised its silver price forecast, predicting it could reach $60 per ounce by 2026, with potential spikes to $65 per ounce [3] - Strong investment demand is anticipated to support further price increases in the coming year [3] Group 5: Broader Market Sentiment - Gold prices have also seen significant gains, surpassing $4200 per ounce with a year-to-date increase of over 50% [4] - Factors such as high U.S. debt, geopolitical uncertainties, and central bank gold purchases are providing long-term support for gold prices [4] - Copper prices have risen sharply, reflecting optimistic expectations for global economic growth, with LME copper reaching approximately $11,210 per ton [4][5] Group 6: Future Price Expectations - JP Morgan projects copper prices to rise to $12,000 per ton by Q1 2026, with an average price of $12,075 per ton for the entire year [5] - Goldman Sachs expresses a strong preference for gold among precious metals, citing its enduring structural support and stability as a value storage tool [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the metal, non-metal, and mining industry [6]. Core Insights - The weakening dollar and rising expectations for interest rate cuts have led to a recovery in risk assets, with silver leading the way. The probability of a rate cut in December has surged to 80%, benefiting precious metals and industrial metals like copper and aluminum [2][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of silver, which has recently reached a new historical high due to futures market dynamics. The outlook for gold remains positive amid expectations of continued economic recession in the U.S. and attractive valuations in the A-share market for gold stocks [4]. - Industrial metal prices have strengthened, driven by enhanced rate cut expectations, with copper and aluminum showing significant price increases [4]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The report highlights that the weakening dollar and the anticipated rate cuts are driving precious metals, particularly silver, to new highs. The analysis suggests that the macroeconomic environment and trading structures favor silver's continued rise [4]. - For gold, the report maintains a bullish stance, predicting that if gold prices break previous highs, the sector will see significant recovery in valuations. The report recommends focusing on specific stocks such as Zhaojin Mining, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, and Shandong Gold Mining [4]. Industrial Metals - The report notes that the enhanced expectations for interest rate cuts are likely to improve the short-term outlook for copper and aluminum. Recent price movements include a 3.7% increase in LME copper and a 2% increase in LME aluminum [4][21]. - The report also discusses the supply dynamics, indicating that copper and aluminum inventories have shown mixed trends, with copper inventories increasing while aluminum inventories have decreased [4][36]. Energy and Minor Metals - The report identifies 2026 as a pivotal year for lithium, with supply and demand dynamics expected to shift positively. The recovery in lithium prices is anticipated as production constraints and rising demand from electric vehicles and energy storage continue [4]. - Strategic metals like rare earths and tungsten are highlighted for their potential value appreciation, particularly in light of government policies affecting supply and ongoing demand recovery [4]. Market Performance - The report indicates that the metal materials and mining sector has outperformed the broader market, with a 3.16% increase compared to a 1.40% rise in the Shanghai Composite Index over the past week [12][15].

2025.11.30 本文字数：1594，阅读时长大约2.5分钟 作者 |第一财经齐琦 贵金属板块再次成为焦点。 上周五，COMEX白银期货价格冲高至每盎司57.245美元，刷新历史纪录，周涨幅达13%。伦敦现货白银同步突破56.5美元/盎司。 黄金、铜价亦同步走强，COMEX黄金重回4263美元/盎司上方，LME铜价则逼近历史高位。这一轮贵金属的集体爆发，是短期情绪驱动还是长期趋势的延 续？ 白银强势领涨，市场热情高涨 11月以来，COMEX白银期货累计涨幅达到16%。沪银主力合约夜盘最高触及13239元/千克，内外盘联动创出新高。 沪上一位贵金属分析师对记者分析称，白银价格的大幅上涨并非偶然。近期，全球经济形势的不确定性以及市场对通胀预期的上升，为白银等贵金属提供 了有力的支撑。 据芝商所"美联储观察"最新数据，美联储12月降息25个基点的概率已达85.4%。约一周前，这一概率预计约40%。 投资面上，全球最大白银ETF——iShares Silver Trust当前持仓量达到15610.54吨。 Kitco Metals高级分析师JimWyckoff表示:"白银的技术图表在过去一周左右变得更加看涨，这正 ...

2025.11. 30 本文字数：1594，阅读时长大约2.5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 齐琦 贵金属板块再次成为焦点。 上周五，COMEX白银期货价格冲高至每盎司57.245美元，刷新历史纪录，周涨幅达13%。伦敦现 货白银同步突破56.5美元/盎司。 黄金、铜价亦同步走强，COMEX黄金重回4263美元/盎司上方，LME铜价则逼近历史高位。这一轮 贵金属的集体爆发，是短期情绪驱动还是长期趋势的延续？ 白银强势领涨，市场热情高涨 11月以来，COMEX白银期货累计涨幅达到16%。沪银主力合约夜盘最高触及13239元/千克，内外 盘联动创出新高。 沪上一位贵金属分析师对记者分析称，白银价格的大幅上涨并非偶然。近期，全球经济形势的不确定 性以及市场对通胀预期的上升，为白银等贵金属提供了有力的支撑。 据芝商所"美联储观察"最新数据，美联储12月降息25个基点的概率已达85.4%。约一周前，这一概 率预计约40%。 中长期看，瑞银(UBS)上调了白银价格预测，预计2026年白银价格将达到60美元/盎司。瑞银还称， 银价有可能飙升至65美元/盎司，但预计这种水平不会持续下去。在强劲的投资需求下，未来一年价 格仍有进一步 ...

| | | | 4 | | --- | | A | | 第一部分 | 前言概要 2 | | --- | --- | | 【行情回顾】 2 | | | 【市场展望】 2 | | | 【策略推荐】 2 | | | 第二部分 | 市场逻辑梳理 3 | | 一、"弱现实"延续，关注潜在预期差 | 3 | | 二、价格继续修复，通胀预期偏暖 | 4 | | 6 | 三、社融增速继续放缓，M1 拐点初现 | | 四、央行呵护不变，但资金价格难下台阶 | 10 | | 12 | 五、公募新规悬而未决，增量信息多偏利空 | | 第三部分 | 后市展望及投资策略 12 | | 免责声明 15 | | 国债期货研发报告 国债期货 12 月报 2025 年 11 月 28 日 债市情绪偏弱，等待利空落地 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 【策略推荐】 1.单边：短线可轻仓博弈反弹，利空落地后或出现更好的做多窗口 2.套利：暂观望 3.期权：无 风险提示：内外政策，地缘因素，通胀预期，风险资产走势 交易咨询业务资格： 11 月债市并未延续上月修复态势。临近月末，公募销售新规即将落地 的传言再起，市场情绪快速转弱。截止 11 月 28 ...

Euro zone consumers raised their near-term inflation expectations a touch but kept them unchanged further out, a European Central Bank survey showed, supporting bets that price growth remains around target and no more rate cuts are needed. ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market shows a mixed trend with the non-ferrous sector experiencing upward fluctuations, particularly highlighted by the performance of the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652), which has seen significant inflows and a year-to-date increase of 70.77% [4][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of November 28, the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) rose by 1.64%, with a peak increase of over 2%, attracting net subscriptions of 900,000 units, amounting to over 13 million yuan [1]. - The majority of the constituent stocks of the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF have shown strong performance, with notable increases such as Yahua Group rising over 5% and Huayou Cobalt and Chifeng Jilong Gold increasing over 3% [3][5]. Group 2: Industry Insights - Yahua Group announced a lithium salt production capacity of 99,000 tons, with an additional 30,000 tons production line expected to be operational by the end of 2025 [6]. - The exploration project in Songpan County has identified an additional gold resource of 28.24 tons, bringing the total to 81.06 tons, valued at over 76 billion yuan [6]. Group 3: Investment Outlook - Analysts express a positive outlook for the non-ferrous sector, with Citic Securities indicating that the sector is poised for further advancement [6]. - The financial attributes of metals like gold and copper are expected to strengthen due to declining real interest rates and increasing inflation expectations, making them attractive as inflation hedges [8][11]. - The supply-demand dynamics for copper and aluminum are expected to improve, driven by new demand from sectors like AI and renewable energy, suggesting a bullish trend for these metals [7][13]. Group 4: ETF Characteristics - The Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) has a high concentration of key metals, with copper accounting for 33% and gold for 13%, making it a leading choice in the sector [17]. - The ETF has demonstrated superior performance since 2022, with a cumulative return that outpaces its peers while maintaining a reasonable valuation, as indicated by a PE ratio of 23.74, down 61% from five years ago [19].

Core Points - The European Central Bank (ECB) consensus from the October meeting indicates a reluctance to lower interest rates, citing high uncertainty and the adequacy of current monetary policy [1] - The ECB decided to maintain interest rates, believing the current policy is in a "good state" due to economic resilience and inflation being close to target levels [1] - Market sentiment suggests that there is only about a one-third chance of further monetary easing by the ECB until 2026 [1] Summary by Sections Monetary Policy Stance - The ECB's October meeting minutes reveal a preference for maintaining a wait-and-see approach, with current policy rates viewed as robust enough to handle shocks [1] - Some officials believe the rate-cutting cycle may have ended, as favorable economic prospects are expected to persist unless risks materialize [1] Economic Indicators - Subsequent economic data released since the meeting has reinforced market expectations, showing that the Eurozone economy continues to grow, albeit at a slow pace [1] - Inflation rates remain anchored near the ECB's target of 2%, contributing to the confidence in the current monetary policy stance [1] Future Inflation Concerns - There is a potential for next year's inflation rate to fall below the target level due to the base effect from declining energy prices, which could reignite discussions on rate cuts [2] - Despite the ECB's traditional disregard for inflation fluctuations caused by energy price volatility, some board members warn that sustained low inflation readings could lower inflation expectations and lead to prolonged weak price growth [2]

土耳其财政部长穆罕默德·希姆谢克表示，家庭与实业部门通胀预期下降反映出政府自2023年中期实施 的"去通胀计划"正在发挥越来越明显的效果，预期持续改善将有助于逐步缓和企业定价行为。 虽然家庭与实业部门通胀预期下降支持官方"去通胀"叙事，但市场预期上行也表明通胀风险仍受到投资 者关注。值得注意的是，通胀预期下降的同时，认为未来一年通胀会回落的家庭比例也在下降，显示消 费者对价格稳定的节奏与持续性存疑。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经伊斯坦布尔11月26日电（记者许万虎）土耳其央行25日发布的一项调查显示，尽管市场机构的 通胀预期小幅上升，但11月家庭与实业部门对未来12个月的通胀预期整体回落。 根据调查结果，市场专业人士预计未来12个月的年通胀率为23.49%，较上月上升0.23个百分点。相比之 下，实业部门与家庭的预期继续走弱，其中，实业部门将未来12个月通胀预期下调0.6个百分点至 35.70%，家庭部门则将预期下调2.15个百分点至52.24%。 ...