Core Viewpoint - The rapid reversal of Japan's Finance Minister, Kato Katsunobu, from a "strong threat" to a "clarification of stance" within 48 hours highlights Japan's strategic anxiety regarding U.S. Treasury bonds and the long-standing power asymmetry in Japan-U.S. relations [1][3]. Group 1: Japan's Position on U.S. Treasury Bonds - Kato's initial statement suggested that Japan's substantial holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, approximately $1.13 trillion as of February, could be used as leverage in trade negotiations with the U.S. [3] - The immediate backlash from the international market and subsequent retraction of his statement in Milan indicated Japan's precarious position and lack of true leverage over the U.S. [3][5]. - The incident reveals Japan's strategic dilemma: while holding U.S. debt represents economic dependence, it also poses a potential tool for financial pressure [3][5]. Group 2: Implications for Japan-U.S. Relations - The U.S. response to Kato's comments was dismissive, with Trump showing indifference to the potential impact of Japan's threats on the U.S. bond market, emphasizing America's financial dominance [5][6]. - Kato's retraction weakened Japan's bargaining power in future trade negotiations, as it demonstrated a lack of resolve and credibility [5][6]. - Analysts have criticized Japan's approach, suggesting that such public threats could undermine its international standing and credibility in negotiations [5][6]. Group 3: Future Considerations - The incident raises questions about Japan's willingness and ability to reduce its economic dependence on the U.S., with analysts suggesting that any genuine attempt to do so would come with significant risks [8]. - The ongoing economic negotiations between Japan and the U.S. may be complicated by this diplomatic misstep, potentially affecting Japan's position in future discussions on tariffs and trade [8]. - The perception of Japan's strategic inconsistency could lead to long-term consequences in its international relations and economic negotiations [8].

近期，特朗普的"对等关税"政策引发了广泛的关注和讨论。这一政策不仅对美国自身，还对中美关系、全球产业链以及金融市场等诸多方面都产生了深远且 复杂的影响。比如，全球资本市场因之而动荡，美国股债汇一度呈现"三杀"局面，一时间关于金融危机发生的讨论甚嚣尘上。 美国频繁加征关税的真实动机是什么？政策背后全球化逻辑发生了哪些改变？美债抛售潮的根本原因是什么？普通投资者应如何应对关税战？对此，新京报 贝壳财经专访了伦敦政治经济学院经济学教授金刻羽。 伦敦政治经济学院经济学教授金刻羽。受访者供图 "对等关税"政策削弱美国信誉，关税代价将由美国普通民众承担 新京报贝壳财经：近期中美关税博弈升级，怎么理解特朗普打响的这场波及全球的关税战？美国频繁加征关税的真实动机是什么？ 金刻羽：这一政策会大大削弱美国在国际上的名声和信誉，也会打破当前全球化的局势。 从特朗普的目的来看，一方面他想借此重振美国制造业，以减少美国与其他国家的贸易逆差；另一方面他将经贸问题武器化，将关税作为与其他国家在经 济、政治等多方面进行谈判的筹码。 但实际上，美国的经济问题并不能靠关税来解决，甚至会扩大问题，因为美国贸易逆差主要源于国内储蓄率过低、财政赤字高 ...