Core Insights - LME copper cancellation warrants initially stabilized but have since declined for three consecutive days, currently at 14,275 tons, while registered warrants have increased to 127,475 tons [1] - The exclusion of refined copper from U.S. tariffs has led to a sharp drop in COMEX copper prices, causing the price difference with LME copper to narrow significantly, hovering around parity [1] - The collapse of premiums has diminished the incentive for global copper to flow into the U.S., with expectations that LME copper inventories will continue to rise [1] Inventory Summary - As of August 1, 2025, total inventory stands at 141,750 tons, with cancellation warrants at 10.07% and registered warrants at 127,475 tons [3] - On July 31, 2025, total inventory was 138,200 tons, with cancellation warrants at 12.28% and registered warrants at 121,225 tons [3] - The trend shows a consistent increase in registered warrants and a decrease in cancellation warrants over the past week, indicating a shift in market dynamics [3]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by President Trump on July 30 aims to impose a 50% tariff on certain copper imports to address national security concerns, but the impact on U.S. copper imports is less than market expectations, with a significant portion of copper imported before the tariff implementation being exempt from these tariffs [1][3]. Group 1: Tariff Details - The announcement imposes a 50% tariff on copper semi-finished products and copper-intensive derivative products, effective from August 1 [2]. - Copper raw materials and scrap are exempt from the 232 tariffs, and these tariffs do not overlap with automotive tariffs [2]. - The tariffs apply based on the copper content in products, while non-copper content is subject to other applicable tariffs [2]. Group 2: Import Impact - The copper tariff is expected to have limited impact, as the majority of U.S. copper imports come from countries like Chile (33.6%), Canada (30.4%), and Mexico (7.6%) [3]. - In the first half of 2025, U.S. companies have already imported more copper than the total for 2024, with 74.3% of this copper being exempt from tariffs [3]. Group 3: China's Role - The products affected by the copper tariffs from China represent a small portion of overall U.S. imports, with less than 5% of imports from China in 2024 [4]. Group 4: Industry Restructuring - The announcement requires that 25% of copper raw materials produced in the U.S. be sold domestically, increasing to 40% by 2029, which aims to enhance U.S. smelting capacity [5]. - There are ongoing investments in U.S. processing capacity, such as a $500 million investment by Wieland Rolled Products in Illinois [5]. - The restructuring of the copper industry is expected to take a long time due to the current weaknesses in U.S. smelting capacity [5]. Group 5: Price Dynamics - The absence of restrictions on copper raw materials is expected to lead to a return to supply-demand pricing for copper, with increased exports to regions outside the U.S. [6]. - The current market conditions indicate that LME copper prices will be influenced by supply and demand factors, particularly as U.S. imports have already surpassed last year's total [6].

Report Summary Core View - Recent COMEX copper prices have fallen significantly by nearly 20% due to the implementation of US copper tariffs, and the spread between COMEX and LME copper has narrowed from nearly $3000 to less than $1000. The exclusion of refined copper from tariffs may lead to an increase in US refined copper imports and a return of copper processing enterprises to the US [2]. - From the supply - demand side, copper mine supply remains tight, processing fees are at a low level, and demand is weak in the off - season with copper rod开工率 falling and terminal consumption dropping. Copper inventory has accumulated again, and refined copper supply - demand has weakened [3]. - Looking ahead, COMEX copper has fallen, and the C - L spread is approaching the historical average. Conditional spot investors can conduct short - selling arbitrage operations on COMEX copper, and pay attention to the long - LME and short - SHFE copper cross - market arbitrage [4]. Latest Dynamic and Reasons - The US will impose a 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products and copper - intensive derivatives starting from August 1, but refined copper is excluded, which is different from market expectations. This may lead to an increase in US refined copper imports and a return of copper processing enterprises to the US [2]. Fundamental Situation - Supply side: Copper mine supply is tight, processing fees are at a low level, and the production guidance of some copper mines has been lowered, increasing the production risk of smelters [3]. - Demand side: In the off - season, copper rod开工率 has declined, terminal consumption such as household appliances has decreased, and copper inventory has accumulated again, and refined copper supply - demand has weakened [3]. - Other factors: The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate in July, the expectation of a September rate cut has decreased, and investors are becoming more cautious as the expiration date of the reciprocal tariff approaches [3]. Summary and Strategy - Spot investors with conditions can conduct short - selling arbitrage operations on COMEX copper according to their own situations [4]. - Pay attention to the long - LME and short - SHFE copper cross - market arbitrage due to the relatively high SHFE/LME ratio and positive import profit [4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [1] Core Viewpoints - The impact of the copper tariffs is limited, with a concentrated import source [3] - The share of imports from China is minimal, indicating a non-major reliance [4] - The restructuring of the U.S. copper industry will require a long period [5] - Copper prices are expected to return to supply-demand pricing [6] Summary by Sections Event Overview - On July 30, President Trump signed an announcement imposing a 50% tariff on certain copper imports, effective August 1. This includes semi-finished copper products and copper-intensive derivatives, while raw copper materials and scrap are exempt from these tariffs [2] Analysis and Judgment - The copper tariffs are expected to have a limited impact on U.S. copper imports, with 2024 imports totaling 610,300 tons, primarily from Chile (33.6%), Canada (30.4%), and Mexico (7.6%). In the first half of 2025, imports reached 1,011,900 tons, with a significant portion being raw materials exempt from tariffs [3] - The affected product categories from China account for less than 5% of total U.S. imports, indicating a limited impact [4] - The announcement requires that by 2027, 25% of copper raw materials produced in the U.S. must be sold domestically, increasing to 40% by 2029, which aims to enhance U.S. smelting capacity [5] - Due to the lack of restrictions on raw copper, the COMEX copper premium has disappeared, and it is anticipated that copper will flow to other markets, leading to a return to supply-demand pricing [6]

Codelco主席Maximo Pacheco称："初步的解读表明关税将不会适用于阴极铜，使我们能够继续向市场供应。这对智利和Codelco来说是好消息。" 智利是全球最大的铜供应国，并且也是美国最大的阴极铜进口国。 （文华综合） 全球最大的铜生产商——智利国营铜公司Codelco周三表示，阴极铜被排除在美国铜关税之外是一个积极的消息。 据央视新闻客户端报道，当地时间7月30日，美国白宫表示，美国总统特朗普宣布对进口半成品铜产品和铜密集型衍生产品征收50%的普遍关税，自8月1日 起生效。 ...

Group 1 - COMEX copper futures experienced a significant decline of 18.03%, closing at $4.6115 per pound [1] - The copper price initially surged to a daily high of $5.83 following the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and the White House's announcement regarding tariff exemptions, before plummeting below $4.80 and hitting a low of $4.5030 [1] - The U.S. copper index ETF fell by 19.31%, while copper mining ETFs decreased by 2.9% [1] Group 2 - Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) shares dropped by 9.46%, with a cumulative decline of 13% over the last five trading days [1] - Hudbay Minerals saw a decline of 7%, and Southern Copper Corporation's shares fell by 6.33% [1]

Group 1 - Xi Jinping emphasized the need for sustained macro policy efforts and timely enhancements in the second half of the year, focusing on stabilizing employment, enterprises, and market expectations while boosting consumption and promoting domestic circulation [1] - The Political Bureau meeting highlighted the importance of implementing a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately easing monetary policy to fully unleash policy effects, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption [2] - The meeting outlined five key strategies, including monetary easing, promoting consumption, advancing reforms, expanding openness, and risk prevention, with a specific mention of stabilizing the capital market [3] Group 2 - The State Council announced a budget of approximately 90 billion yuan for a new childcare subsidy program, which is expected to stimulate consumer spending and support optional consumption [6] - The average interest rate for newly issued commercial personal housing loans in the second quarter of 2025 was reported at 3.09%, a slight decrease from 3.11% in the first quarter [9] - The China Coking Industry Association announced a price increase for various types of coke starting July 31, aimed at improving the industry's profitability [10] Group 3 - The People's Bank of China reported significant growth in cross-border financial activities in Hainan, with the establishment of 273 new EF accounts and a total business volume of approximately 917.97 billion yuan [14] - The film "Nanjing Photo Studio" achieved over 700 million yuan in box office revenue, ranking among the top five films of 2025 [15] - The successful launch of low-orbit satellites for satellite internet in China marks a significant advancement in the industry [16] Group 4 - Companies such as XGIMI Technology reported a projected net profit increase of over 20 times for the first half of the year, indicating strong performance [18] - Jinhe Biology and Changjiang Electric Power also reported substantial net profit growth for the first half of the year, with increases of 51.52% and 14.22% respectively [18] - However, companies like Zhongwang Software faced legal challenges, highlighting potential risks in the industry [18]

中邮证券近日发布有色金属行业周报：在特朗普宣布的8月1日对铜进口征加50%关税生效之前，全球主 要铜市场（伦敦、上海）等地约有40万吨库存被转移至美国，几乎占美国全年精炼铜需求的40%。这一 占比水平预示着，随着关税落地，美国将至少在短期内不会继续进口精炼铜。 以下为研究报告摘要： 摘要： 特朗普施压美联储加快降息，美联储内部对降息节奏产生分歧。近一段时期以来，特朗普及其内阁成员 等多位官员不断对鲍威尔施压，要求美联储尽快降低利率3个百分点，降至1%左右。近日，特朗普亲自 访问美联储，与鲍威尔进行会谈，并声称会谈效果很好，美国总统亲自访问美联储这一罕见行为引起市 场对美联储独立性的担忧。尽管在降息节奏问题上，议息会议成员内部之间仍面临分歧，多数成员都倾 向于观望经济走势和通胀数据，但在特朗普的压力和声称要解雇鲍威尔的威胁之下，美联储降息似乎只 是时间问题，而目前内部分歧为下一次议息会议增加了不确定性。在降息预期不断加强的背景下，金、 铜等金属的金融属性有望继续增强，下方支撑稳固。 美国铜关税导致全球铜库存转移，对美国以外市场产生冲击。在特朗普宣布的8月1日对铜进口征加50% 关税生效之前，全球主要铜市场（伦敦 ...

投资建议：降息预期存在不确定性，短期内铜价在美国关税影响下冲高，但伦敦、上海 等市场可能存在短期供给不足的冲击。建议关注有成长性和增长潜力的工业金属龙头，紫金 矿业（600988.SH）、洛阳钼业（603993.SH）、西部矿业（601168.SH）。 美联储降息预期对主要金属品种价格形成较强支撑，美国铜关税的生效落地短期内可能 对全球不同市场价格产生冲击。维持有色金属行业"推荐"评级。 特朗普施压美联储加快降息，美联储内部对降息节奏产生分歧。近一段时期以来，特朗 普及其内阁成员等多位官员不断对鲍威尔施压，要求美联储尽快降低利率3个百分点，降至 1%左右。近日，特朗普亲自访问美联储，与鲍威尔进行会谈，并声称会谈效果很好，美国 总统亲自访问美联储这一罕见行为引起市场对美联储独立性的担忧。尽管在降息节奏问题 上，议息会议成员内部之间仍面临分歧，多数成员都倾向于观望经济走势和通胀数据，但在 特朗普的压力和声称要解雇鲍威尔的威胁之下，美联储降息似乎只是时间问题，而目前内部 分歧为下一次议息会议增加了不确定性。在降息预期不断加强的背景下，金、铜等金属的金 融属性有望继续增强，下方支撑稳固。 美国铜关税导致全球铜库存转移 ...

行业 铜期货日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 30 日 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1：沪铜走势及盘面价差 图2：伦铜走势及价差 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 每日报告 【建信期货研究发展部】 宏观金融研究团队 021-60635739 有色金属研究团队 021-60635734 黑色金属研究团队 021-60635736 石油化工研究团队 021-60635738 农业产品研究团队 021-60635732 量化策略研究团队 021-60635726 免责声明： 沪铜继续在趋势线下方运行，隔夜智利 ...