Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the market is in a period of gaming over US copper tariffs, with a high bearish sentiment. Along with the correction after the cooling of the domestic commodity sentiment, the market trend is bearish. Short - term support is around 78,000 yuan/ton, and it is pressured by the 5 - day moving average above. - In the medium - to - long - term, after the raw material inventory of smelters is depleted, there may be an increase in maintenance of production capacity. The market is bullish in the medium - to - long - term, and there may be an oversold rebound after the sentiment is digested. The supply is loose in the short - term due to the tariff implementation and tight in the medium - to - long - term. The copper consumption structure may change due to trade uncertainties and the 50% US copper tariff, affecting the apparent copper consumption [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The market rumors of possible exemption of Chilean copper tariffs led to a sharp decline in US copper prices, while the impact on Shanghai and London copper was small. Sino - US economic and trade talks started in Stockholm, Sweden. - In the short - term, the supply is affected by the tariff implementation and is loose, but it is tight in the medium - to - long - term. After the copper tariff is implemented, more copper concentrates may be transferred to China. - Recently, with the decline in copper concentrate imports and high operating loads of domestic smelters, the inventory of refined copper concentrates has been continuously depleted. - The TC/RC fees are still negative but have stopped falling and stabilized. Smelters can currently rely on by - products such as sulfuric acid to make up for losses, and most smelters have raw material reserves, so the production enthusiasm is okay. The concentrated maintenance season is expected to be in the third quarter or after a significant depletion of raw material inventory [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - **Futures**: The Shanghai copper futures opened high, rose, and then fluctuated downward, closing at 78,840 yuan/ton. The long positions of the top 20 decreased by 3,096 to 115,164 lots, and the short positions decreased by 930 to 115,790 lots. - **Spot**: The spot premium in East China was 85 yuan/ton, and in South China it was 0 yuan/ton. On July 28, 2025, the LME official price was $9,830/ton, and the spot premium was - $47/ton [4]. Supply Side As of July 25, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - $42.73/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.26 cents/pound [6]. Fundamental Tracking - **Inventory**: SHFE copper inventory was 18,100 tons, an increase of 251 tons from the previous period. As of July 24, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 71,600 tons, an increase of 500 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 127,600 tons, a slight increase of 225 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 250,800 short tons, an increase of 2,184 short tons from the previous period [8].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs believes that the biggest risk from U.S. copper tariffs is the possibility of Trump reaching an agreement that allows a significant amount of tariff-free copper to enter the U.S. [1] Group 1: Tariff Implications - Goldman Sachs analysts, including Eoin Dinsmore, stated that agreements related to mineral diplomacy or tariff exemptions for specific assets deemed to have sufficient control by the U.S. pose an increasing risk to the expectation of comprehensive tariff imposition [1] - The analysts indicated that copper prices have not fully reflected the 50% tariff level due to high U.S. inventories and ongoing uncertainty regarding potential tariff exemptions [1]

2025 年 07 月 28 日 铜：国内库存减少，限制价格下跌 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 宏观方面，特朗普称与欧盟达协议可能五成，后改口称或可达成，预计多数协议 8 月前完成，加拿大在 最后期限前达成新协议的可能性不大。（华尔街见闻） 美国 6 月耐用品订单环比初值-9.3%，创疫情以来最大月度跌幅，飞机订单拖累。（华尔街见闻） 微观方面，盎格鲁亚洲矿业有限公司宣布，该公司旗下位于阿塞拜疆卡拉巴赫经济区的 Demirli 铜矿 开始试生产，预计产量将在今年年底前增加，2025 年铜精矿产量为 4,000 吨。（SMM） 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 79,250 | -0.80% | 78800 | -0.57% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 9,796 | -0.59% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持 ...

铜周报：国内政策推动铜价，关注铜关税落地 2025-7-28 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号: Z0021167 张 桓 执业编号：F03138663 咨询电话：027-65777106 01 主要观点策略 02 宏观及产业资讯 03 期现市场及持仓情况 目 录 04 基本面数据 01 主要观点策略 01 主要观点策略 供给端：铜矿供应持续偏紧，铜精矿加工费持续位于历史低位。截至7月25日，铜精矿进口粗炼费为-42.75美元/吨，铜精矿现货加 工费自5月初跌至-43美元后维持至今，供给端矿冶矛盾持续演绎。 需求端：上周（7月18日-7月24日）国内精铜杆企业开工率下降到69.37%，环比下降4.85个百分点，同比下降8.85个百分点。铜价 上涨后，下游消费在上周短暂回暖后又再度呈现疲弱，企业新增订单和提货量都有所减少，精铜杆企业的开工率出现下降。 库存：截至7月25日，上海期货交易所铜库存7.34万吨，周环比-13.17%，持续下探至历年低位。截止7月24日，国内铜社会库存 11.42万吨，周去库2.91万吨，环比-20.3 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The controversy within the Federal Reserve has led to a decline in the US dollar index, boosting the non - ferrous metals market. The copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has decreased this week, and the spot premium has strengthened. It is expected that Shanghai copper will fluctuate strongly in the short term. Attention should be paid to tariff expectations and the Federal Reserve's interest - rate decision [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Today, copper opened low and moved high with a strong intraday oscillation. Federal Reserve Governor Waller suggested a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in July, causing the US dollar index to decline. As of July 11, 2025, the spot smelting fee was - 43.23 dollars per dry ton, and the spot refining fee was - 4.32 cents per pound. Although the copper smelting processing fee is still negative, it has stopped falling and stabilized. The copper concentrate inventory has increased this period, and the expected tight supply of copper may improve. After the 232 copper tariff is implemented, the domestic copper inventory is expected to accumulate. The demand from downstream industries is weak overall, except for the bright refrigerator production and sales data. [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures market opened low and weakened intraday, closing at 77,840. The long positions of the top 20 were 103,634 lots, a decrease of 4,798 lots; the short positions were 102,315 lots, a decrease of 1,478 lots. Spot: The spot premium in East China was 60 yuan per ton, and in South China was 45 yuan per ton. On July 17, 2025, the LME official price was 9,620 dollars per ton, and the spot premium was - 34.5 dollars per ton [4] Supply Side - As of July 11, the latest data showed that the spot smelting fee (TC) was - 43.23 dollars per dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.32 cents per pound [6] Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 38,200 tons, a decrease of 3,900 tons from the previous period. As of July 17, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 69,300 tons, unchanged from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 122,200 tons, a slight increase of 25 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 241,800 short tons, an increase of 2,379 short tons from the previous period [8]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The U.S. dollar index is expected to weaken, which supports the copper price. The processing fees of copper smelters have stopped falling and stabilized, and the supply shortage expectation has eased. However, downstream demand is weak, and the overall procurement sentiment is sluggish. After the enthusiasm of arbitrageurs to rush to the U.S. cools down, inventories in other regions except the U.S. have changed from destocking to stockpiling, putting pressure on the copper price. The 50% copper tariff in the U.S. has a small impact on the market for now, but if it is actually implemented, it may cause the market to continue to decline [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The copper price opened low and moved high during the day but weakened. The U.S. dollar index is expected to weaken, supporting the copper price. The processing fees of copper smelters have stopped falling and stabilized, and the supply shortage expectation has eased. The apparent consumption of electrolytic copper increased by 6.30% in May compared with the previous month. In June, the cable operating rate declined, and the air - conditioning industry entered the off - season. The downstream procurement sentiment is weak, but emerging industries such as new energy perform well. After the enthusiasm of arbitrageurs to rush to the U.S. cools down, inventories in other regions except the U.S. have changed from destocking to stockpiling, putting pressure on the copper price. The 50% copper tariff in the U.S. has a small impact on the market for now, but if it is actually implemented, it may cause the market to continue to decline [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures opened low and moved high during the day but weakened, closing at 77840. The number of long orders of the top 20 decreased by 4798 to 103634 hands, and the number of short orders decreased by 1478 to 102315 hands. Spot: The spot premium in East China is 55 yuan/ton, and in South China is 65 yuan/ton. On July 14, 2025, the LME official price is 9615 dollars/ton, and the spot premium is - 52 dollars/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - SHFE copper inventory is 4.21 tons, a decrease of 0.81 tons from the previous period. As of July 14, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 6.93 tons, an increase of 0.22 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory is 12.22 tons, a slight increase of 1150 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory is 23.94 short tons, an increase of 1171 short tons from the previous period [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trump's tariff 2.0 on copper and copper products has a negative impact on the macro - sentiment. The tariff of 50% on copper and copper products starting from August 1st is beyond market expectations, causing a divergence in the trends of US and London copper, with the price difference widening to $2000 - 3000. The tariff will lead to a decrease in copper flowing from non - US regions to the US, alleviating the supply pressure in non - US regions and having a negative impact on London and Shanghai copper prices. Short - term copper prices will mainly operate in a weak and volatile manner. The recommended strategies are to short on rallies and sell out - of - the - money call options [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Part 1: Weekly Review 3.1.1 Weekly Data - **Supply - side**: The spot TC of copper concentrate was $44.25/ton, up $0.46 or 1.04% week - on - week. The refined - scrap copper price difference was 1848 yuan/ton, down 1011 yuan or 54.72%. The southern crude copper processing fee remained unchanged at 800 yuan/ton. The operating rate of refined copper rods was 64%, down 3 percentage points or 5.11%. The operating rate of recycled copper rods was 25%, up 0.7 percentage points or 2.66%. The operating rate of wire and cable was 68%, down 4 percentage points or 5.47% [7]. - **Inventory**: The available days of copper concentrate port inventory were 5.6 days, down 0.2 days or 3.09%. The social inventory of electrolytic copper was 14.29 million tons, up 0.47 million tons or 3.29%. The bonded area inventory was 7.29 million tons, up 0.59 million tons or 8.09%. The total global inventory was 50.04 million tons, up 4.05 million tons or 8.09% [7]. - **Valuation**: The spot smelting comprehensive profit was - 3850 yuan/ton, up 561 yuan or 14.58%. The long - term smelting comprehensive profit was - 317 yuan/ton, up 541 yuan or 170.69%. The import profit was - 970 yuan/ton, up 659 yuan or 67.93% [7]. 3.1.2 Comprehensive Logic - Affected by the copper tariff expectation, about 400,000 tons of copper (about half a year's import volume in the US) has been imported into the US in advance. After the tariff is implemented in early August, the flow of copper from non - US regions to the US will stop, and the supply pressure in non - US regions will be alleviated. The tariff policy has a negative impact on London and Shanghai copper prices. Short - term copper prices will mainly operate in a weak and volatile manner [9]. 3.1.3 Fed Rate - cut Path - The report provides the expected interest rate changes and implied overnight interest rates of different regions and time points in the US through the federal funds futures and OIS models, showing the market's expectations for the Fed's rate - cut path [11]. Part 2: Copper Industry Chain 3.2.1 Price/Spread/Cost/Profit - **Price**: The report presents the historical data of SMM1 electrolytic copper premium/discount, Shanghai copper term structure, Shanghai copper main contract closing price, and LME3 closing price [13][16][21][23]. - **Spread**: It shows the historical data of the Shanghai - London ratio, Shanghai - London ratio (excluding exchange rate), and LME(0 - 3) premium/discount [23]. - **Cost/Profit**: The report provides the historical data of spot copper import profit, electrolytic copper comprehensive profit (including by - product sulfuric acid), feed - processing spot export profit, and electrolytic copper comprehensive profit for long - term contracts [25][27][29][31]. 3.2.2 Copper Supply/Demand - **Supply**: It includes the production of copper concentrate in Chile and Peru, the import volume of copper concentrate, scrap copper, and crude copper, and the production and import volume of electrolytic copper [33][37][40]. - **Demand**: - **Copper Rod - Cable**: The operating rates of refined copper rods, wire and cable, and enameled wire, as well as the raw material and finished product inventory ratios of copper rod lines are presented [44][45]. - **Cable Terminal - Power Grid**: The cumulative and monthly power grid investment completion amounts are provided [46][47]. - **Copper Tube - Air Conditioner**: The operating rate of copper tubes, the raw material and finished product inventory ratios of copper tubes, and the production, domestic sales, and export volumes of household air conditioners are shown [54][55]. - **Copper Plate - Strip**: The operating rate of copper plate - strips, and the raw material and finished product inventory ratios of copper plate - strips are presented [58][59]. - **Terminal - Automobile**: The monthly production and sales volumes of automobiles and new - energy vehicles are provided [61][62][64]. - **Brass Rod - Real Estate**: The operating rate of brass rods, the monthly and cumulative housing completion areas, and the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large cities are shown [67][68][70][72]. 3.2.3 Copper Inventory - **Domestic**: The report provides the historical data of domestic copper inventories, including social inventory, bonded area inventory, Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventory, and SMM copper concentrate port inventory [73][74]. - **Overseas**: It shows the historical data of overseas copper inventories, including LME electrolytic copper inventory, COMEX electrolytic copper inventory, and global refined copper inventory [76][77]. Part 3: Capital Position 3.3.1 Copper External Market Position - On July 8th, the non - commercial long - position ratio of CFTC was 35.1%, slightly lower and basically flat, and the net long - position increased to 39,600 lots. On July 11th, the net long - position of LME investment funds was 32,182 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 6990 lots [83].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The decline in Shanghai copper prices is mainly due to the US plan to impose a 50% copper tariff, exceeding previous expectations. There is a cold expectation for cross - regional arbitrage in the future, and export demand will significantly decrease. Although the expectation of tight supply at foreign copper mines has not been reversed, the downward space for copper is limited. Attention should be paid to the US CPI data tonight [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Today, copper opened low and weakened during the day. In June, China's exports denominated in US dollars increased by 5.8% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.1%. Trump announced tariff hikes on 14 countries (effective on August 1), threatening to impose a 200% tariff on drugs and a 50% surcharge on copper. Since the implementation of the 232 copper tariff, US copper prices have risen significantly, while London copper and Shanghai copper prices have weakened to varying degrees [1]. - As of July 11, 2025, the spot rough smelting fee is - 43.23 US dollars per dry ton, and the spot refining fee is - 4.32 cents per pound. Although the copper smelting plant processing fee is still negative, it has stopped falling and stabilized. The copper concentrate inventory has increased this period, and the expectation of extremely tight copper supply may improve. After the implementation of the 232 copper tariff, domestic copper inventory is expected to accumulate [1]. - As of May 2025, the apparent consumption of electrolytic copper was 1.3635 million tons, an increase of 80,800 tons or 6.30% compared with the previous month. In June, the cable operating rate decreased, and the air - conditioning industry has passed its peak production and sales period and entered the off - season. The overall purchasing sentiment of downstream industries is weak, but emerging industries such as new energy have performed well [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures market opened low and weakened during the day, closing at 78,090. The long positions of the top 20 were 115,230 lots, a decrease of 705 lots; the short positions were 111,042 lots, an increase of 214 lots [4]. - Spot: Today, the spot premium in East China is 90 yuan per ton, and in South China it is 5 yuan per ton. On July 14, 2025, the LME official price was 9,595 US dollars per ton, and the spot premium was - 40 US dollars per ton [4]. Supply Side - As of the latest data on July 11, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) is - 43.23 US dollars per dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) is - 4.32 cents per pound [6]. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory is 50,100 tons, an increase of 15,800 tons from the previous period. As of July 14, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 69,300 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory is 109,600 tons, a slight increase of 900 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory is 236,500 short tons, an increase of 3,061 short tons from the previous period [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of copper are neutral as smelting enterprises are reducing production, the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, and the manufacturing PMI in June was 49.5%, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment [2]. - The basis shows a premium of the spot price over the futures price, which is neutral [2]. - Copper inventories present a mixed picture, with an increase on July 14 but a decrease in the SHFE inventory compared to last week, remaining neutral [2]. - The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average which is trending downwards, suggesting a bearish signal [2]. - The net position of the main players is long and increasing, indicating a bullish sign [2]. - Expectations include a slowdown in Fed rate - cuts, inventory reduction from a high level, geopolitical disturbances, a proposed 50% US copper tariff, and increased market volatility [2]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Daily View - The overall assessment of copper's various factors is a mix of neutral, bearish, and bullish signals, with complex market expectations influenced by policy, inventory, and geopolitical factors [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves the co - existence of domestic policy easing and an escalation of the trade war, but specific利多 and利空 factors are not detailed [3]. Spot - Information on spot prices, including the location, mid - price, and price changes, as well as inventory types, totals, and changes, is presented but not fully detailed in the given text [6]. 期现价差 - Not detailed in the provided content Exchange Inventory - Copper inventory on July 14 increased by 900 tons to 109,625 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 3,127 tons to 81,462 tons compared to last week [2]. 保税区库存 - The inventory in the bonded area has rebounded from a low level [14]. 加工费 - The processing fee has declined [16]. CFTC - Not detailed in the provided content Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, the market is expected to be in a tight balance. The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows detailed data from 2018 - 2024 [20][22].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of copper are neutral as smelting enterprises are reducing production, the scrap copper policy has been relaxed, and the manufacturing PMI in June was 49.5%, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment [2]. - The basis shows a premium of the spot price over the futures price, which is neutral [2]. - Copper inventories increased by 625 tons to 108,725 tons on July 11, while the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 3,127 tons to 81,462 tons compared to last week, which is neutral [2]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [2]. - The net position of the main players is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - With the slowdown of the Fed's interest rate cuts, high - level inventory destocking, geopolitical disturbances, and the US proposing a 50% copper tariff, the market volatility will intensify [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - The overall analysis of copper includes multiple aspects such as fundamentals, basis, inventory, price trends, and main player positions, with different indicators showing different trends [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves domestic policy easing and the escalation of the trade war, but specific details of the impact on copper prices are not elaborated [3]. Daily Summary - A table is provided to show the intermediate price, change, type, total quantity, and increase/decrease of copper in different places, but the specific data is not filled in [5]. Exchange Inventory - The SHFE copper inventory decreased by 3,127 tons to 81,462 tons compared to last week, and on July 11, the copper inventory increased by 625 tons to 108,725 tons [2]. Bonded Warehouse Inventory - The bonded warehouse inventory has rebounded from a low level [13]. Processing Fees - The processing fees have declined [15]. Supply - Demand Balance - The supply - demand balance shows a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025, and specific data for China's annual supply - demand balance from 2018 - 2024 are provided [19][21].