Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Report Core View - No relevant content found Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Alumina - On January 21, the domestic ore price was 501 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of 0 yuan/ton; the imported ore price from Guinea was 63 US dollars/dry ton, with a month-on-month change of 0 US dollars/dry ton [1] - The spot price index on January 21 was 2634 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 3 yuan/ton [1] - The futures inventory on January 21 was 6,889 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 177 tons [1] - The aluminum import profit and loss on January 21 was -2052 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 464 yuan/ton [1] Electrolytic Aluminum - On January 21, the average price of 8M A00 was 23,710 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 30 yuan/ton, and the premium/discount was -150 yuan/ton [1] - The electrolytic aluminum smelting profit on January 21 was 7,579 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 34 yuan/ton [1] - The futures inventory on January 21 was 138,755 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1,196 tons [1] - The import profit and loss on January 21 was 134 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 21 yuan/ton [1] Aluminum Alloy - On January 21, the Baotai 4001 price was 2,040 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of 0 yuan/ton [1] - The refined - scrap price difference of raw aluminum on January 21 was 2,509 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 20 yuan/ton; the refined - scrap price difference of profile aluminum was 3,530 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 20 yuan/ton [1] - The futures inventory on January 21 was 119,128 tons, a month-on-month increase of 3,012 tons [1] - The import profit and loss on January 21 was -3 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 42 yuan/ton [1]

Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum Industry Chain Weekly Report - Report Date: January 19, 2026 - Research Team: Industrial Service Headquarters | Non - ferrous Metals Team - Researcher: Wang Guodong [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of bauxite in Shanxi and Henan are temporarily stable, while the mainstream transaction price of Guinea bulk ore has decreased week - on - week. Both domestic and foreign ore prices are expected to continue to decline under pressure. The alumina market has a relatively stable supply, but the previous hype about enterprise restructuring has cooled down, and the alumina price has given back its previous gains. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is increasing, and new production capacities are being put into operation at home and abroad. The overall demand for aluminum is gradually entering the off - season, and the start - up rate of downstream processing enterprises may continue to face pressure. The social inventory of aluminum ingots is accumulating. In the short term, Shanghai aluminum may continue to adjust at a high level [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Economic Indicators - The report presents data on the US Treasury yield curve (2 - year, 10 - year, 10 - year minus 2 - year), the US dollar index, the US Treasury 10 - year real yield, inflation expectations, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB (inter - bank middle rate, on - shore and off - shore spot rates) [6][7] 3.2 Bauxite - The prices of bauxite in Shanxi and Henan are temporarily stable. Due to the small proportion of circulating goods, the prices of domestic ore have stabilized after a general reduction, and it is not yet the next long - term contract negotiation cycle. Mining rectification, mine reclamation requirements, and strengthened safety and environmental supervision are still the core bottlenecks restricting the resumption of production of many mines, which are difficult to solve fundamentally in the short term. The mainstream transaction price of Guinea bulk ore has decreased by $1.9 per dry ton week - on - week to $63.8 per dry ton. The shipping volume of Guinea ore has increased, the spot supply of imported ore has increased, and the ore price continues to be under pressure. In terms of long - term contracts, the first - quarter long - term contract signing work in the imported ore market has basically ended, and some contracts adopt the monthly pricing model [10] 3.3 Alumina - As of last Friday, the built - in production capacity of alumina was 11,462 tons (unchanged week - on - week), the operating capacity was 9,625 tons (an increase of 40 tons week - on - week), and the start - up rate was 84%. The weighted price of domestic spot alumina was 2,627.6 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 34.1 yuan/ton. The national alumina inventory was 4.988 million tons, an increase of 53,000 tons week - on - week. The national alumina supply is relatively stable. In late January, two alumina plants in Guangxi will conduct rotational maintenance on their roasting furnaces for about 12 days, and it is expected to affect a total output of about 30,000 tons during the maintenance period. The previous hype about the restructuring of alumina enterprises has cooled down, and combined with the correction of the non - ferrous metal sector, the alumina futures price has given back its previous gains [13] 3.4 Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the built - in production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4,540.2 tons (an increase of 10,000 tons week - on - week), and the operating capacity was 4,463.4 tons (an increase of 10,000 tons week - on - week). In terms of new production capacities, the first - phase 120,000 - ton production capacity of Tianshan Aluminum has reached full production, the second - phase 80,000 - ton is still under construction and is expected to reach full production this year. The 350,000 - ton production capacity of Zha Aluminum will be built and put into production and reach full production in 2026. Overseas, on January 15, the first - phase 120,000 - ton electrolytic aluminum project of Huatong Angola Industrial Co., Ltd. was officially put into operation and may reach full production in the second quarter. On January 11, the first batch of 500,000 tons of the North Kalimantan electrolytic aluminum project in Indonesia started production. On January 13, the Slovak government sought to restart the Slovalco aluminum plant with a capacity of about 200,000 tons, and production may resume as early as summer [22] 3.5 Inventory - The report presents the historical data of the social inventory of aluminum rods, the social inventory of aluminum ingots, the Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum futures inventory, and the LME aluminum inventory from 2022 to 2026. The social inventory of aluminum ingots continued to accumulate during the week [27][28][29][30] 3.6 Casting Aluminum Alloy - The start - up rate of leading recycled aluminum alloy enterprises remained stable at 58% week - on - week. Due to the continuous heavy - pollution weather, the regional production restriction policy has been repeatedly implemented, and the start - up rate of enterprises affected by environmental protection production restrictions in the early stage has not recovered. Under the high aluminum price limit, the orders of some recycled aluminum plants have decreased significantly, but downstream die - casting enterprises have been forced to replenish inventory to maintain normal production [33] 3.7 Downstream Start - up - Last week, the start - up rate of leading domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises increased by 0.2% week - on - week to 60.3%. The start - up rate of leading aluminum profile enterprises decreased by 0.9% week - on - week to 47.9%. In the industrial profile sector, the start - up rate of sample enterprises in the photovoltaic profile segment has slightly increased driven by the component export tax - refund policy, while the automotive profile is relatively stable. In the construction profile sector, the start - up rate has continued to decline, and the downstream market is gradually entering the shutdown and holiday cycle. The start - up rate of leading aluminum plate and strip enterprises increased by 1% week - on - week to 66%. The strong pre - Spring Festival stocking demand for can materials has driven the start - up rate of aluminum plate and strip to recover. However, the processing fee space of mid - and low - end products has been squeezed by the aluminum price, and downstream enterprises have generally postponed their pre - holiday stocking plans and only maintained the on - demand procurement rhythm. The start - up rate of domestic leading cable enterprises remained stable at 59.6% week - on - week. After the New Year's Day holiday, enterprises concentrated on digesting the previously accumulated orders, and the grid order matching work was carried out in an orderly manner. The start - up rate of leading primary aluminum alloy enterprises increased by 0.2% week - on - week to 58.6%. Although the aluminum price is high, approaching the Spring Festival, alloy enterprises have successively carried out pre - holiday inventory replenishment, promoting a slight increase in the start - up rate. Downstream enterprises that previously adopted a two - day weekend due to the high aluminum price have gradually resumed normal production rhythms, and some enterprises have begun to gradually accept the current aluminum price level and carry out pre - holiday inventory replenishment [45][49]

Core Viewpoint - Innovation Industry (2788.HK) has seen a significant stock price increase, rising over 8% to reach a new high of 27.6 HKD, with a cumulative increase of over 80% since its listing, and its market capitalization briefly exceeding 57 billion HKD [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Innovation Industry focuses on the upstream of the aluminum industry chain, specifically in alumina refining and electrolytic aluminum smelting [1] - The company has plans to invest in a comprehensive aluminum industry chain project in the Red Sea, Saudi Arabia, in collaboration with Innovation Group and Innovation New Materials [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - Since 2026, the price of electrolytic aluminum has significantly increased, and the overall supply-demand tightness is expected to persist [1] - Despite cautious purchasing sentiment from downstream sectors, the long-term trend indicates a further upward shift in electrolytic aluminum profit margins, suggesting a continuation of the industry's high-profit cycle [1] - Analysts remain optimistic about the profitability of the electrolytic aluminum sector in the first half of 2026 [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoints - Aluminum is following the upward trend of copper, but its price elasticity is limited by weak spot fundamentals. The price may experience a "dip" due to the decline in photovoltaic enterprise production, but the downside is limited if the risk appetite of traditional non - ferrous sectors remains strong in Q1 [3]. - Alumina once hit the daily limit on Friday due to the policy guidance. However, the market turnaround depends on significant supply - side clearance and re - balance of supply and demand. The mid - term strategy is to find selling points during price rebounds [4]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Price and Market Performance - **Aluminum Price**: Aluminum is following the upward trend of traditional non - ferrous and precious metals, but the weak spot fundamentals limit its price elasticity. The short - term demand is weak, with significant inventory accumulation and expanding spot discounts [3]. - **Alumina Price**: Alumina once hit the daily limit on Friday due to policy guidance. The price is affected by supply - demand imbalance, short - position trading factors, and cost considerations. The price may fluctuate more at lower levels, and the mid - term view is to sell on rebounds [4]. - **Futures Data**: This week, the trading volume of most aluminum - related futures increased, and the positions showed differentiation. The price of most futures rose, and the inventory and price differences also changed [5]. 3.2 Trading - end Analysis - **Price Differences** - **Spot - Futures Price Differences**: This week, the spot premiums of both A00 aluminum and alumina weakened. For example, the average SMM A00 aluminum spot premium decreased from - 50 yuan/ton to - 190 yuan/ton, and the Shandong alumina premium to the current month decreased from 156 yuan/ton to - 147 yuan/ton [10]. - **Monthly Price Differences**: The near - month price difference of Shanghai aluminum weakened [11]. - **Volume and Open Interest** - The open interest of the Shanghai aluminum main contract decreased slightly, while the trading volume increased slightly. - The open interest and trading volume of the alumina main contract increased significantly, and the open interest remained at a historical high [14]. - **Open Interest - to - Inventory Ratio**: The open interest - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai aluminum decreased, while that of alumina increased slightly and remained at a historically low level [19]. 3.3 Inventory Analysis - **Bauxite**: As of December 26, the port inventory of imported bauxite decreased, and the inventory days remained stable. In November, the bauxite inventory of alumina enterprises decreased. The Guinea port shipment volume decreased, while the Australian port shipment volume increased. The Guinea sea - floating inventory increased, and the Australian sea - floating inventory decreased [25][30][31]. - **Alumina**: The total national inventory and the all - caliber inventory of alumina continued to accumulate. The factory inventory, electrolytic aluminum plant inventory, and platform/in - transit inventory increased, while the port inventory decreased [45][52]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of December 25, the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 51,000 tons to 612,000 tons this week [53]. - **Processed Products** - **Aluminum Rod**: This week, the spot inventory and factory inventory of aluminum rods showed differentiation [59]. - **Aluminum Profiles and Plate - Foil**: In November, the inventory ratios of both raw materials and finished products of aluminum profiles and plate - foil increased slightly [62]. 3.4 Production Analysis - **Bauxite**: In November, the domestic bauxite supply was mainly stable, with a slight decline in SMM - caliber domestic production. The supply of imported bauxite was an important factor driving the growth of the total supply. By province, the production in some regions decreased, while in others it increased [67][68]. - **Alumina**: The capacity utilization rate remained stable. As of December 26, the total operating capacity decreased by 300,000 tons. This week, the domestic metallurgical - grade alumina production was 1.838 million tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from last week. The supply - side surplus situation has not changed [72]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of November, the operating capacity remained at a high level, and the capacity utilization rate was high due to profit restoration. As of December 11, the weekly production was 856,700 tons, an increase of 400 tons from last week. The aluminum - water ratio decreased seasonally [75]. - **Downstream Processing** - **Output**: This week, the output of recycled aluminum rods, aluminum rods, and aluminum plate - foil decreased [78]. - **开工率**: The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream leading enterprises decreased by 0.7%. By sector, the operating rates of aluminum plate - strip, aluminum foil, aluminum profiles, and aluminum cables decreased, while the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy increased [79][82][84]. 3.5 Profit Analysis - **Alumina**: In November, the alumina profit continued to decline slightly, and the smelting profit was under pressure. By province, the profits in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan remained stable, while the profit in Guangxi was better [86]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The profit remained at a high level, but uncertain factors such as the complex global macro - economic situation and overseas geopolitical conflicts interfered with market expectations [99]. - **Downstream Processing**: The processing fee of aluminum rods decreased by 20 yuan/ton this week, and the downstream processing profit remained at a low level [100]. 3.6 Consumption Analysis - **Import and Export** - **Import**: The import losses of alumina and Shanghai aluminum have widened [109]. - **Export**: In November 2025, the total export volume of aluminum products increased slightly, but the export demand is affected by trade policy adjustments [111]. - **Consumption Volume**: The commercial housing transaction area is at a low level, while the automobile production increased month - on - month [114].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View No clear core view presented in the given text. It mainly focuses on the daily data tracking of the aluminum industry chain. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Alumina - Price: $68 per dry ton, a decrease of $1 per dry ton compared to the previous period [3] - Spot price index on December 22: 2,754 yuan per ton, a decrease of 8 yuan per ton [3] - Futures inventory on December 22: 168,677 tons, a decrease of 11,122 tons [3] - Import profit and loss on December 22: 15 yuan per ton, a decrease of 8 yuan per ton [3] Electrolytic Aluminum - Domestic ore price on December 22: 509 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous period [4] - SMI 400 average price on December 22: 21,930 yuan per ton, an increase of 110 yuan per ton; the premium and discount was -170 yuan per ton, a decrease of 20 yuan per ton [4] - Baotai A0012 price on December 22: 21,300 yuan per ton, unchanged [4] - Electrolytic aluminum smelting profit on December 22: 5,684 yuan per ton, an increase of 124 yuan per ton [47] - Futures inventory on December 22: 76,088 tons, a decrease of 100 tons [47] - Aluminum import profit and loss on December 22: -2,466 yuan per ton, a decrease of 318 yuan per ton [47] Aluminum Alloy - Scrap price difference of raw aluminum on December 22: 2,026 yuan per ton, an increase of 110 yuan per ton; the scrap price difference of profile aluminum was 2,779 yuan per ton, an increase of 110 yuan per ton [5] - Futures inventory on December 22: 70,161 tons, an increase of 28 tons [5] - Import profit and loss on December 22: -80 yuan per ton, an increase of 24 yuan per ton [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the aluminum industry are weak, with domestic downstream demand entering the off - season and the开工 rate under pressure. Although the macro - atmosphere is good and many non - ferrous metals have risen, and technically, LME aluminum has broken through the resistance level, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to strengthen the wait - and - see for both Shanghai aluminum and cast aluminum alloy [4][5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly View - **Fundamental Analysis**: Domestic and foreign bauxite prices are expected to continue to decline under pressure. Alumina operating capacity remains stable, while electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increases slightly. The downstream demand is weak, and the overall demand is in the off - season. The inventory of aluminum ingots supports the aluminum price, and the demand for recycled cast aluminum alloy is gradually slowing down. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [4] - **Strategy Suggestion**: It is recommended to strengthen the wait - and - see for both Shanghai aluminum and cast aluminum alloy [5] 3.2 Macro - economic Indicators - The content mainly presents charts of US Treasury bond yields, the US dollar index, and RMB exchange rates, but no specific analysis is provided 3.3 Bauxite - Shanxi bauxite prices are temporarily stable, while Henan bauxite prices have dropped significantly. The mainstream transaction price of Guinea bulk ore has decreased by $0.6 per dry ton week - on - week to $69.9 per dry ton. Imported ore prices are expected to continue to decline due to increased supply, and $70 per dry ton is the key negotiation price for 2025 long - term contracts [11] 3.4 Alumina - As of last Friday, the alumina production capacity was 114.62 million tons (unchanged week - on - week), the operating capacity was 95.9 million tons (unchanged week - on - week), and the operating rate was 83.6%. The domestic spot weighted price was 2724.8 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 28.5 yuan/ton. The national alumina inventory was 458.5 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 102,000 tons. Alumina enterprises have a strong willingness to maintain stable production [14] 3.5 Alumina Important High - frequency Data - The content presents charts of alumina basis, port inventory, north - south price difference, and external transportation volume, without specific analysis 3.6 Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 45.302 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 30,000 tons; the operating capacity was 44.494 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 30,000 tons. Some enterprises have reduced production for technological transformation, while new production capacity such as Tianshan Aluminum and Zha Aluminum is gradually being put into operation [23] 3.7 Electrolytic Aluminum Important High - frequency Data - The content presents charts of aluminum import profit, Shanghai aluminum forward curve, aluminum rod processing fee, and动力煤 prices, without specific analysis 3.8 Inventory - The content presents charts of aluminum rod social inventory, aluminum ingot social inventory, SHFE aluminum futures inventory, and LME aluminum inventory, without specific analysis 3.9 Cast Aluminum Alloy - The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum alloy enterprises remained stable at 59.8% week - on - week. Since mid - December, the orders of downstream die - casting enterprises have weakened, and demand has gradually slowed down. Environmental protection control in Chongqing has also restricted the recovery of the local operating rate [35] 3.10 Cast Aluminum Alloy Important High - frequency Data - The content presents charts of aluminum profile prices, aluminum alloy futures forward curve, ADC12 - A00 price difference seasonal trend, and ADC12 aluminum alloy ingot import profit, without specific analysis 3.11 and 3.12 Downstream开工 - The overall operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.3% week - on - week to 61.5%. The operating rate of aluminum profile leading enterprises decreased by 1.4% week - on - week to 51.6%, and the operating rate of aluminum plate and strip leading enterprises remained stable at 65%. The operating rate of domestic cable leading enterprises has a pattern of strong expectations but weak reality, and the operating rate of leading primary aluminum alloy enterprises remained stable at 60% week - on - week [47][51]

1. Report Title and Date - Title: Guinea Mining Enterprises' Resumption Brings Cost Reduction Expectations, Alumina Expected to Run at Low Levels; Bullish Sentiment and Fundamental Support Remain, Shanghai Aluminum Expected to Oscillate Strongly - Guoxin Futures Non - Ferrous (Aluminum Industry Chain) Weekly Report [2] - Date: December 12, 2025 [2] 2. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 3. Core Viewpoints - Alumina is expected to run at low levels due to potential increases in Guinea bauxite supply, but should not be overly bearish considering some domestic enterprises' losses and industry integration possibilities [12][143][148] - Shanghai Aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly, with upward drivers from bullish sentiment and capital, and fundamental support from demand and inventory trends [13][144][148] - Cast aluminum alloy is expected to oscillate strongly with aluminum prices, but its upward potential may be limited by weakening demand expectations and high inventory [14][145][148] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review - **Macro and Important News**: On December 10, the Fed cut the federal funds rate target range to 3.50% - 3.75%. A Guinea - based enterprise was allowed to resume operations, and if the Axis mine resumes in December, it will contribute about 40 million tons of supply in 2026 [8] - **Overall Market**: This week, alumina oscillated downwards, Shanghai Aluminum oscillated weakly, and aluminum alloy oscillated weakly [11] - **Outlook**: Alumina may see cost and price support decline due to increased bauxite supply; Shanghai Aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly with bullish sentiment and fundamental support; cast aluminum alloy is expected to follow aluminum prices but with limited upside [12][13][14] 4.2 Alumina Fundamental Analysis - **Spot**: As of December 12, the average domestic alumina spot price was 2,792.78 yuan/ton, down 17.31 yuan/ton from December 5 [27] - **Supply**: As of December 11, the national alumina weekly operating rate was 79.62%, up 0.15% from December 4. In November 2025, China's metallurgical alumina production decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year [31] - **Import and Export**: On December 10, the average FOB price of Australian alumina was 310 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars/ton from December 4. The import window was open [32] - **Cost and Profit**: As of December 11, the average full cost of alumina was about 2,860 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton from December 4. The industry loss was about 60 yuan/ton [34] - **Inventory**: As of December 11, alumina port inventory was 130,000 tons, up 3,000 tons from the previous week. In October 2025, China had a net alumina import [41] 4.3 Electrolytic Aluminum Fundamental Analysis - **Cost**: As of December 5, coal prices in major producing areas decreased, and Yunnan's hydropower price in December rose to about 0.468 yuan/kWh. The price of pre - baked anodes remained stable [51][54] - **Cost and Profit**: As of December 11, China's electrolytic aluminum smelting cost was about 16,383 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton from December 4. The average industry profit narrowed to about 5,300 yuan/ton [57] - **Supply**: In November 2025, domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased year - on - year and decreased month - on - month. In December, the operating capacity is expected to increase slightly [60] - **Spot**: As of December 12, the average price of Yangtze River non - ferrous market aluminum (A00) was 22,050 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from December 5 [63] - **Demand**: As of December 11, the operating rate of domestic downstream aluminum processing leading enterprises was 61.8%, down 0.1% from the previous week. In November, the PMI of the aluminum processing industry rose above the boom - bust line [69] - **Inventory**: As of December 11, aluminum ingot inventory was 584,000 tons, down 12,000 tons from December 4, and aluminum rod inventory was 116,500 tons, down 4,500 tons from December 4. By November, the industry's aluminum - water ratio decreased slightly [72] - **Futures Inventory**: As of December 12, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipt inventory was 69,160 tons, up 2,327 tons from December 5. From December 5 - 10, LME aluminum inventory decreased by 7,050 tons to 518,750 tons [77] - **Import and Export**: The aluminum ingot import profit window was closed. In October 2025, China exported 503,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products, with a cumulative export of 5.02 million tons from January - October, a year - on - year decrease of 8.6% [80][84] - **Terminal**: The real estate market is slowly recovering. In early December, automobile consumption data showed weakness [92] 4.4 Aluminum Alloy Fundamental Analysis - **Raw Materials**: The supply of scrap aluminum is affected by aluminum prices and seasonal factors. The price of scrap aluminum is expected to be strong [14] - **ADC12 Cost and Profit**: The cost of ADC12 includes scrap aluminum, silicon, and copper. The industry is currently in a loss state [107] - **ADC12 Spot Price**: The average price of ADC12 shows seasonal changes [109] - **Overseas ADC12 Price and Import Profit**: The price of overseas ADC12 and the import profit situation are presented [112] - **Supply**: The production of ADC12 and the import and export volume of aluminum alloy are analyzed. The supply of aluminum alloy may decrease marginally [118][145] - **Demand**: The demand for cast aluminum alloy mainly comes from the automobile industry, but the sustainability of orders is uncertain [123][145] - **Inventory**: The inventory of aluminum alloy includes social inventory and factory - level inventory [132] - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The monthly supply - demand balance of aluminum alloy is analyzed [136] 4.5 Future Outlook - **Alumina**: The resumption of Guinea's mining enterprises may increase bauxite supply, but due to enterprise losses and industry integration, it should not be overly bearish. Caution is advised when short - selling [143] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: After the Fed's December interest rate cut, bullish sentiment is strong. With fundamental support, Shanghai Aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly [144] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It is expected to follow aluminum prices to oscillate strongly, but the upside may be limited by demand and inventory [145]

Core Viewpoint - Innovation Industry has successfully listed on the Hong Kong stock market, with a significant first-day increase of 32.76%, bringing its market capitalization close to HKD 30 billion [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Innovation Industry focuses on the upstream aluminum industry chain, specifically in alumina refining and electrolytic aluminum smelting [2] - The company is the fourth largest electrolytic aluminum production base in North China and the twelfth largest electrolytic aluminum producer in China based on 2024 production [2] Group 2: Financial Performance - Revenue increased from CNY 13.49 billion in 2022 to CNY 13.81 billion in 2023, and is projected to reach CNY 15.16 billion in 2024 [3] - Net profit rose from CNY 0.91 billion in 2022 to CNY 1.08 billion in 2023, with a significant increase to CNY 2.63 billion in 2024 [3] - Revenue for the first five months of 2024 was CNY 5.88 billion, up 22.6% from the same period in 2025 [3] Group 3: Client Relationships - Innovation Industry's largest client is Innovation New Materials, which is also controlled by the same actual controller, Cui Lixin [4] - Revenue from Innovation New Materials accounted for 78.8%, 76.6%, and 59.8% of Innovation Industry's total revenue for 2023, 2024, and the first five months of 2025, respectively [4] Group 4: Investment and Market Strategy - The company plans to allocate 50% of the net proceeds from its global offering to a project in Saudi Arabia, indicating a strategy for overseas expansion [5] - A significant number of institutional investors participated in the IPO, including Hillhouse Capital, which invested approximately HKD 777 million [6]

Core Viewpoint - Innovation Industry is set to officially list on the Hong Kong stock market on November 24, following a successful dark market phase where its stock price increased by 26.02% [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - Innovation Industry is the twelfth largest electrolytic aluminum producer in China and focuses on the upstream aluminum industry, specifically alumina refining and electrolytic aluminum smelting [7][8]. - The company is controlled by Cui Lixin, who also controls the A-share company Innovation New Materials [4][15]. - The electrolytic aluminum production is highly energy-intensive, and Innovation Industry benefits from self-generated electricity and low power costs due to abundant resources in Inner Mongolia [8][9]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Revenue growth has been consistent, with total revenue increasing from RMB 134.90 billion in 2022 to RMB 138.15 billion in 2023, and projected to reach RMB 151.63 billion in 2024 [10][12]. - The net profit rose from RMB 9.13 billion in 2022 to RMB 10.81 billion in 2023, with a significant increase expected to RMB 26.30 billion in 2024 [12][10]. Group 3: Business Relationships - Innovation Industry has a close business relationship with Innovation New Materials, which is its largest customer, accounting for 78.8% of its revenue in 2023 [15][16]. - The company emphasizes that transactions with Innovation New Materials are conducted at fair market rates and do not indicate excessive reliance on related parties [16]. Group 4: Market Participation - The IPO attracted significant interest from top-tier investment institutions, including Hillhouse Capital, Jinglin, and China Hongqiao, indicating strong market confidence [18][19].

本文为节选内容 更多报告，关注公众号：矿产资源市场调研 铝产业链包括"铝土矿-氧化铝-电解铝-铝制品-再生铝"等几个环节。从开采得到的含铝矿石中制备得到氧化铝，然后以氧化铝、烧碱等为原料，用熔盐电解 的方式冶炼制取原铝（电解铝），再通过压延、挤压等方式进一步加工成铝带箔、铝型材、铝合金等产品，相关产品主要应用于建筑、交通、电力电子、耐 用消费品等下游行业。 铝土矿是生产氧化铝的核心要素，碱法是当前主流的工业化生产方式。铝土矿是一水软硬铝石及三水铝石为主的矿石，表现形态为高岭土、赤铁矿及石英 等，储量形态以红土型铝土矿为主。铝土矿下游需求的90%为生产氧化铝，而全球超过90%的氧化铝又以铝土矿作为生产原材料，因此铝土矿作为氧化铝必 备的生产要素具有显著的不可替代性。而生产方式上，铝土矿生产氧化铝大致可分为四类，分别是碱法、酸法、酸碱联合法和热法，其中碱法是当前主流的 氧化铝生产方式。所谓碱法生产就是用碱来分离铝土矿中的氧化铝（转变成铝酸钠溶液）及赤泥（铁、钛等不溶解化合物残渣），分解过后的铝酸钠溶液再 进行进一步的解析从而得到氢氧化铝，然后通过进一步的焙烧得到氧化铝产品。 全球铝土矿资源分布呈明显的区域性集中特 ...