Report Title - Aluminum Industry Chain Daily Review 20250710: The supply and demand of domestic bauxite in July are expected to be loose, and the total inventory of domestic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods has increased month-on-month [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand of domestic bauxite in July are expected to be loose, and the total inventory of domestic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods has increased month-on-month [1] - The price of alumina may still have room to rise, and it is recommended that investors try to go long on the main contract at low levels [3] - The price of Shanghai aluminum may be slightly stronger, and it is recommended that investors try to go long on the main contract at low levels [3] - The price of cast aluminum alloy may still have room to rise, and it is recommended that investors try to go long on the main contract and pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of shorting the price difference between electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy [3] Summary by Directory Market Data - **Shanghai Aluminum Futures**: On July 9, 2025, the closing price was 20,515 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 102,569 lots, down 7,014 lots; the open interest was 250,099 lots, down 4,627 lots; the inventory was 47,818 tons, up 600 tons [2] - **Shanghai Aluminum Basis**: The average price of SMM A00 electrolytic aluminum was 20,660 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan from the previous day; the Shanghai aluminum basis was 145 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the spread between the near-month and the first continuous contract of Shanghai aluminum was 185 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] - **Alumina Spot Price**: The national average price of alumina was 3,124.52 yuan/ton, up 4.56 yuan from the previous day; the average prices in Shanxi, Shandong, Henan, Guangxi, and Guizhou increased by 10 yuan respectively; the average prices in Lianyungang and Bayuquan remained unchanged; the FOB price of Australian alumina was 366 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] - **Alumina Futures Price**: On July 9, 2025, the closing price was 3,130 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 351,714 lots, down 88,255 lots; the open interest was 248,656 lots, down 19,098 lots; the inventory was 18,612 tons, unchanged [2] - **London Aluminum**: The closing price of LME 3-month aluminum futures (electronic trading) was 9,660 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars from the previous day; the spread between the 0-3 month contract of LME aluminum futures was 22.37 US dollars/ton, down 28.94 US dollars; the spread between the 3-15 month contract was -48.74 US dollars/ton, down 37.98 US dollars; the ratio of Shanghai-London aluminum prices was 7.8843, down 0.08 [2] Industry News - **Alumina**: In the second quarter of 2025, Vedanta's Lanji gacti alumina production reached a record high of 687,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 36%; the quarterly production of electrolytic aluminum was 605,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 1% and flat month-on-month [3] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The theoretical average full cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 16,500 yuan/ton; the production capacity utilization rate and production volume of domestic electrolytic aluminum have decreased or remained flat compared with last week; the proportion of aluminum water production by domestic electrolytic aluminum enterprises has decreased compared with last week [3] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The domestic scrap aluminum production and import volume in July may increase month-on-month; the production capacity utilization rate of domestic primary aluminum alloy has decreased compared with last week; the production capacity utilization rate of domestic recycled aluminum alloy has remained flat compared with last week [3] Trading Strategies - **Alumina**: It is recommended that investors try to go long on the main contract at low levels, paying attention to the support level around 2,600-2,800 yuan/ton and the resistance level around 3,300-3,600 yuan/ton [3] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: It is recommended that investors try to go long on the main contract at low levels, paying attention to the support level around 20,000-20,200 yuan/ton and the resistance level around 20,800-21,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai aluminum, and the support level around 2,300-2,500 US dollars/ton and the resistance level around 2,050-2,750 US dollars/ton for London aluminum [3] - **Aluminum Alloy**: It is recommended that investors try to go long on the main contract and pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of shorting the price difference between electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy, paying attention to the support level around 19,500-19,700 yuan/ton and the resistance level around 19,900-20,000 yuan/ton [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Aluminum: Pay attention to the callback pressure as the downstream demand is triggering a negative feedback, and the inventory accumulation inflection point has been confirmed [3][4]. - Alumina: The valuation should not be set high as the "anti - involution" lacks industry details, and the market is in a new inventory accumulation cycle [5]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction End: Spreads, Volume, and Open Interest 3.1.1 Term Spreads - The term structure of Shanghai aluminum has changed to a C - structure, and the average SMM A00 aluminum premium has decreased from 100 yuan/ton to - 20 yuan/ton. The term B - structure of alumina has narrowed [10]. 3.1.2 Monthly Spreads - The monthly spreads of Shanghai aluminum near - term contracts have narrowed [11]. 3.1.3 Open Interest and Volume - The open interest of the Shanghai aluminum main contract remained stable, while the trading volume decreased slightly. The open interest of the alumina main contract decreased slightly but remained at a high level, and the trading volume rebounded during the week [18]. 3.1.4 Open Interest - to - Inventory Ratio - The open interest - to - inventory ratio of the Shanghai aluminum main contract has declined, and that of alumina has continued to fall and is at a historically low level [19]. 3.2 Inventory: Bauxite, Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Processed Materials 3.2.1 Bauxite - Port inventory and inventory days decreased. As of July 4, the port inventory of imported bauxite decreased by 650,000 tons week - on - week. In May, the port inventory and inventory days showed a continuous accumulation trend [24]. - In May, the bauxite inventory of alumina enterprises rebounded, with an increase of 4.487 million tons month - on - month [29]. - Port shipments and sea - floating inventory rebounded. As of July 4, the port shipments from Guinea and Australia increased by 62,900 tons and 150,300 tons respectively week - on - week. The sea - floating inventory from Guinea and Australia increased by 9.04 million tons and 4.678 million tons respectively week - on - week [30]. - Out - port volume decreased, and in - port volume increased slightly. As of June 27, the out - port volume from Australia and Guinea decreased, while the SMM - caliber bauxite in - port volume increased by 698,300 tons week - on - week [34]. 3.2.2 Alumina - The national total inventory continued to accumulate, with an increase of 23,000 tons week - on - week. The plant - level inventory remained stable, the electrolytic aluminum plant's alumina inventory increased slightly, the port inventory accumulated, and the platform/in - transit inventory decreased [43]. - The Aladdin full - caliber inventory continued to accumulate. As of July 3, the national alumina inventory was 3.162 million tons, an increase of 25,000 tons week - on - week [48]. 3.2.3 Electrolytic Aluminum - The inventory accumulation inflection point has been confirmed, but the amplitude is not large. As of July 3, the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 6,000 tons to 466,000 tons [49]. 3.2.4 Aluminum Rod - Spot inventory and plant - level inventory accumulated, and the out - port volume decreased [55]. 3.2.5 Aluminum Profiles and Plate - Foil - The raw material and finished product inventory ratios showed differentiation. In May, the SMM - caliber finished product inventory ratio of aluminum profiles decreased slightly, while that of plate - foil increased slightly [57]. 3.3 Production: Output, Capacity, and Operating Rate 3.3.1 Bauxite - In May, the domestic bauxite supply showed differentiation. The overall domestic bauxite supply contracted, and the imported bauxite supply was an important increment. The production in Shanxi, Henan, and Guangxi decreased significantly [63][64]. 3.3.2 Alumina - The capacity utilization rate remained stable, but the fundamental supply - loose pattern remained unchanged. As of July 4, the national operating total capacity was 90.8 million tons, an increase of 800,000 tons week - on - week. The domestic metallurgical - grade alumina output was 1.748 million tons, an increase of 19,000 tons week - on - week [69]. 3.3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum - The operating capacity remained at a high level, and the aluminum - water ratio increased seasonally. As of May, the operating capacity continued to be high, and the capacity utilization rate increased significantly. As of July 3, the weekly output was 844,200 tons, a decrease of 70 tons week - on - week [74]. 3.3.4 Downstream Processing - The output of recycled aluminum rods, aluminum rods, and plate - foil decreased slightly. The output of recycled aluminum rods decreased by 730 tons week - on - week, the output of aluminum rods decreased by 7,900 tons week - on - week, and the output of plate - foil decreased by 800 tons week - on - week [77]. - The operating rate of leading downstream aluminum enterprises continued to decline, with a 0.1% decrease to 58.7% week - on - week. The operating rates of various sectors were generally under pressure [78]. 3.4 Profit: Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Processed Materials 3.4.1 Alumina - The profit decreased slightly. The profit of metallurgical - grade alumina was 300.3 yuan/ton. The profits in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan decreased, while that in Guangxi was better [84]. 3.4.2 Electrolytic Aluminum - The profit remained at a high level, but uncertain factors interfered with market expectations due to the complex global macro - economic situation and geopolitical conflicts [94]. 3.4.3 Downstream Processing - The processing fee of aluminum rods increased slightly, but the downstream processing profit remained at a low level [95]. 3.5 Consumption: Import and Export Profits and Losses, and Apparent Demand 3.5.1 Import Profits and Losses - The import profits and losses of alumina and Shanghai aluminum were basically stable [103]. 3.5.2 Export - From January to May, the cumulative year - on - year export of processed materials decreased. In May, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products continued to increase, with a month - on - month increase of 29,000 tons [105]. - The export profits and losses of aluminum processed materials showed differentiation, and the export demand was hindered by trade policy adjustments [108]. 3.5.3 Consumption Absolute Quantity - The transaction area of commercial housing decreased, while the automobile production increased month - on - month [114].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Aluminum is oscillating strongly with low inventory unchanged, and attention should be paid to the potential transmission of downstream negative feedback. The key contradiction lies in the total installation volume and production scheduling rhythm in the second half of the year. The confirmation of the demand inflection point still needs to wait for the confirmation of the inventory inflection point and changes in export shipping capacity. The downstream processing profit is at a low level in the same period over the years, and attention should be paid to the potential negative feedback and the resilience of downstream buying interest [3]. - Alumina has low inventory and low warehouse receipts, and the futures price is oscillating slightly higher. The resumption of production continues, but the dilemma of low inventory and few warehouse receipts remains unchanged. The valuation at the current price has become a key point affecting the long - short game. Attention should be paid to the accumulation of resumption of production to inventory and changes in port inventory [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Trading End: Spreads, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - **Term Spreads**: The term B structure of Shanghai aluminum and alumina has narrowed. The average price of SMM A00 aluminum premium has changed from 180 yuan/ton to 100 yuan/ton, and the average price of SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) premium has changed from 50 yuan/ton to -5 yuan/ton. The premium of Shandong alumina to the current month has changed from 248 yuan/ton to 119 yuan/ton, and that of Henan alumina has changed from 258 yuan/ton to 124 yuan/ton [9]. - **Monthly Spreads**: The monthly spread of Shanghai aluminum has widened [10]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the Shanghai aluminum main contract has increased significantly, and the trading volume has also increased. The open interest of the alumina main contract has remained stable at a high level, and the trading volume has rebounded this week [12]. - **Open Interest - Inventory Ratio**: The open interest - inventory ratio of Shanghai aluminum has declined, and that of alumina has continued to decline and is at a historically low level [18]. Inventory: Bauxite, Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Processed Products - **Bauxite**: Port inventory and inventory days have increased. As of June 27, the weekly imported bauxite port inventory has increased by 1760000 tons compared with last week. As of May, the bauxite port inventory and inventory days in China according to the阿拉丁 caliber have continued to increase. The port shipping volume has declined, and the floating inventory has shown differentiation. The alumina enterprises' bauxite inventory has rebounded in May [24][29][30]. - **Alumina**: The national total inventory has increased. As of June 26, the national alumina inventory has increased by 13000 tons to 3137000 tons compared with last week. The inventory in the alumina plant, electrolytic aluminum plant, and port has increased, while the inventory in the yard/platform/in - transit has decreased slightly [50]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The inflection point of inventory accumulation needs further confirmation. As of June 26, the weekly inventory of aluminum ingot social inventory has increased by 10000 tons to 460000 tons [51]. - **Aluminum Rod**: Spot inventory and in - plant inventory have increased, and the shipping volume has declined [56]. - **Aluminum Profiles & Plate - Foil**: The raw material and finished product inventory ratios have shown differentiation. As of May, the finished product inventory ratio of SMM aluminum profiles has declined slightly, and the raw material inventory ratio has also declined slightly. The finished product inventory of SMM aluminum plate - foil has rebounded slightly, and the raw material inventory has increased [59]. Production: Output, Production Capacity, and Operating Rate - **Bauxite**: The domestic bauxite supply has shown a recovery trend, but the domestic bauxite output has declined in May. The supply of imported bauxite is still an important increment. The production in different provinces has shown differentiation [63]. - **Alumina**: The production capacity utilization rate has remained stable, but the loose fundamental pattern has not been reversed. As of June 27, the total operating production capacity of national alumina is 90000000 tons, with a weekly increase of 1400000 tons. The weekly output of domestic metallurgical - grade alumina is 1729000 tons, an increase of 14000 tons compared with last week [70]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The operating production capacity remains at a high level, and the proportion of molten aluminum has increased seasonally. As of May, the operating production capacity of electrolytic aluminum has continued to remain at a high level, and the production capacity utilization rate has increased significantly. As of June 26, the weekly output of electrolytic aluminum according to the steel union caliber is 844900 tons, an increase of 20 tons compared with last week [74]. - **Downstream Processing**: The output of aluminum plate - foil has continued to decline slightly. The output of recycled aluminum rods and aluminum rods has declined, and the operating rate of leading downstream aluminum enterprises has continued to decline, with a strong off - season atmosphere [75][77][78]. Profit: Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Processed Products - **Alumina**: The smelter still has profits, and attention should be paid to the progress of maintenance and resumption of production. This week, the alumina profit has declined slightly, with the metallurgical - grade alumina profit of 304.9 yuan/ton according to the steel union caliber. The profits in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan have declined, while the profit in Guangxi is better [85]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The profit is still at a high level, but uncertain factors are interfering with market expectations. The complex global macro - economic situation, overseas geopolitical conflicts, and changing trade policies have increased uncertainty [92][95]. - **Downstream Processing**: The processing fee of aluminum rods has been significantly reduced, and the downstream processing profit is still at a low level [96]. Consumption: Import Profit and Loss, Export Profit and Loss, and Apparent Demand - **Import Profit and Loss**: The import profit and loss of alumina and Shanghai aluminum have rebounded [104]. - **Export**: From January to May, the cumulative year - on - year export of processed aluminum products has declined. In May 2025, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products has continued to rebound, with a month - on - month increase of 29000 tons [106]. - **Apparent Consumption Volume**: The commercial housing transaction area has rebounded, and the automobile production has increased month - on - month [115].

Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum & Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: June 15, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Wang Rong [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - Aluminum market valuation is not low, but the downward fundamental drivers are not clear. Short - term trading is complex, and the recent strength may be due to spot - end warehouse receipt issues. The impact of pre - placed export demand on subsequent demand and the inventory inflection point need to be observed. [3] - Alumina market is in short - term sideways movement with narrowing fluctuations and a slightly downward center. The inventory inflection point is approaching, and the multi - empty game is affected by reasonable valuation. [4] Summary by Directory Aluminum - **Price Movement**: Shanghai Aluminum showed strong performance this week, breaking through the mid - May high, but further upward space needs observation. [3] - **Micro - fundamentals**: As of June 12, aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 45,000 tons to 463,000 tons. As of June 13, the weekly output of aluminum plates, strips, and foils continued to decline, while as of June 12, the output of aluminum profiles increased slightly. Aluminum rod processing fees dropped significantly by 150 yuan/ton to 180 yuan/ton, and the downstream processing profit has fallen to a low level in the same period of previous years. [3] Alumina - **Price Movement**: The alumina futures price continued to test the 2800 level. With the continuous increase in weekly operating capacity and operating rate, the inventory inflection point is approaching. The market may have pre - selected to reduce long positions or switch to short positions. [4] - **Micro - fundamentals**: As of June 12, the all - caliber social inventory of Alumina according to Aladdin was 3.129 million tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons from the previous week; the all - caliber inventory of Mysteel increased for two consecutive weeks. The domestic spot price of alumina fell, and the decline has widened. [4] Trading - **Term Spread**: Shanghai Aluminum's term structure changed to C - structure, and Alumina's term B - structure expanded. [9] - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spread of Shanghai Aluminum's near - term contracts widened rapidly. [10] - **Position and Volume**: Shanghai Aluminum's main contract position and trading volume increased, while Alumina's main contract position decreased and trading volume rebounded. [12] - **Position - to - Inventory Ratio**: Shanghai Aluminum's position - to - inventory ratio increased significantly, while Alumina's position - to - inventory ratio continued to decline and is at a historically low level. [18] Inventory - **Bauxite**: As of June 13, Mysteel's weekly imported bauxite port inventory continued to accumulate, increasing by 300,000 tons from the previous week. As of May, the bauxite port inventory and port inventory days in China according to Aladdin continued to show an upward trend. [23] - **Alumina**: This week, the total alumina inventory increased, with a week - on - week increase of 13,000 tons. Aladdin's all - caliber inventory decreased by 4,000 tons to 3.129 million tons as of June 12. [43][47] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of June 12, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 45,000 tons to 463,000 tons, and the destocking rhythm accelerated. [53] - **Processed Products**: This week, the spot and in - plant inventories of aluminum rods decreased slightly, and the outbound volume increased significantly. [54] Production - **Bauxite**: In May, the domestic bauxite supply showed a slight recovery, but the latest Mysteel domestic bauxite production in May declined. Imported bauxite is still an important factor driving the growth of the total domestic bauxite supply. [62] - **Alumina**: The alumina capacity utilization rate increased. As of June 13, the national total operating capacity of alumina was 88.7 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 500,000 tons. The domestic metallurgical alumina output this week was 1.718 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 11,000 tons. [69] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of May, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained at a high level. As of June 12, the weekly output of electrolytic aluminum according to Mysteel was 843,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 400 tons. The proportion of molten aluminum increased seasonally. [75] - **Downstream Processing**: This week, the output of recycled aluminum rods increased by 2,060 tons week - on - week, the output of aluminum rods increased by 7,400 tons week - on - week, and the output of aluminum plates, strips, and foils decreased by 600 tons week - on - week. [78] Profit - **Alumina**: This week, alumina profit recovered. The profit of metallurgical alumina according to Mysteel was 451.5 yuan/ton. The profits of alumina in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan all increased, and the profit performance in Guangxi was better. [89] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The profit of electrolytic aluminum remained at a high level, but the complex global macro - economic situation and uncertain factors interfered with market expectations. [96] - **Downstream Processing**: The processing fee of aluminum rods dropped significantly, and the downstream processing profit remained at a low level. [97] Consumption - **Import Profit and Loss**: The import profit and loss of alumina and Shanghai Aluminum increased. [105] - **Export**: In April 2025, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products continued to rise, with a month - on - month increase of 12,000 tons. The export profit and loss of aluminum processing materials showed differentiation, and the export demand for aluminum products was affected by trade policy adjustments. [107][109] - **Consumption Volume**: The transaction area of commercial housing decreased, while the automobile production increased month - on - month. [116]