1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core Viewpoints Alumina - The overall price of alumina is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. The marginal contraction of the short - term supply side provides upward potential for the price. It is recommended to buy on dips [16]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Due to strong uncertainties in the current macro - environment and the supply - demand dual - weak characteristics of the fundamentals, the price of electrolytic aluminum is expected to maintain a volatile range in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [59]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - With the cost weakening and the simultaneous contraction of supply and demand, the price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to maintain a volatile range in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [108]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Environment - The probability of a rate cut in March is 21.7% (13.4% last week). The US dollar index is 97.96, the US PMI is 52.60, and the US 10 - 2 - year spread is 0.74%. The domestic manufacturing PMI is 49.30 [4][10][13]. 3.2 Alumina Futures - Last week, the main alumina contract 2605 closed at 2,824 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan/ton from the previous week [16]. Spot - The average domestic alumina spot price last week was 2,610.4 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The overseas alumina market price in US dollars was 311 US dollars/ton, and the import window of the Chinese alumina market is currently closed [16]. Supply - Alumina plants' production cuts and overhauls are increasing, and the operating capacity continues to decline. As of last Friday, the installed capacity was 114.62 million tons, the operating capacity was 94.25 million tons (down 800,000 tons from the previous week), and the operating rate was 82.3% [16]. Demand - Electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production. As of last Friday, the installed capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 45.402 million tons, the operating capacity was 44.896 million tons (up 420,000 tons from the previous week), and the operating rate was 98.9% [16]. Valuation - The average full cost of alumina decreased last week, and the average profit increased. The basis was - 234 yuan/ton, and the 0 - 3 month spread was - 166 yuan/ton. The weekly trading volume increased, while the open interest decreased [16]. Inventory - As of last Friday, the alumina inventory was 5.621 million tons and continued to accumulate [16]. 3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum Futures - Last week, the LME aluminum closing price was 3,015 US dollars/ton, down 121 US dollars/ton from the previous week. The closing price of the main SHFE aluminum contract was 23,315 yuan/ton, down 1,245 yuan/ton from the previous week [59]. Macro - Overseas, the US ISM manufacturing PMI in January exceeded expectations and returned above the boom - bust line; the ADP employment data was unexpectedly lower than expected; the conflict between the US and Iran eased; the US stock earnings reports increased market concerns about AI capital expenditure. Domestically, relevant departments have introduced consumption - promotion and credit - related policies [59]. Spot - Last week, the average spot price in East China was 23,442 yuan/ton, down 3.56% from the previous week; in South China, it was 23,448 yuan/ton, down 3.55% from the previous week; in Central China, it was 23,336 yuan/ton, down 3.54% from the previous week [59]. Supply - Electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - load production. As of last Friday, the installed capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 45.402 million tons, the operating capacity was 44.896 million tons (up 420,000 tons from the previous week), and the operating rate was 98.9% [59]. Demand - The weekly operating rate of aluminum products decreased slightly. As of last Friday, the operating rate of aluminum products was 57.9% (down 1.5% from the previous week) [59]. Valuation - The average cost of electrolytic aluminum increased last week, and the average profit decreased. The basis was - 150 yuan/ton, and the 0 - 3 month spread was - 340 yuan/ton. The weekly open interest and trading volume decreased [59]. Inventory - As of last Friday, the electrolytic aluminum inventory was 836,000 tons and continued to accumulate [59]. 3.4 Cast Aluminum Alloy Futures - Last week, the main ADC12 contract 2603 closed at 21,950 yuan/ton, down 870 yuan/ton from the previous week [108]. Scrap Aluminum - Last week, the average price of crushed primary aluminum was 19,150 yuan/ton, down 800 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the average price of crushed secondary aluminum was 19,650 yuan/ton, down 700 yuan/ton from the previous week [108]. Spot - Last week, the average price of Baotai ADC12 was 23,000 yuan/ton, down 600 yuan/ton from the previous week. The import profit of ADC12 last week was - 37 yuan/ton [108]. Supply - The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy decreased slightly. As of last Friday, the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 58.3% (down 0.6% from the previous week) [108]. Demand - Downstream die - casting enterprises generally replenish inventory based on rigid demand, and the actual demand is generally weak [108]. Valuation - The average cost of ADC12 decreased last week, and the average profit increased. The basis was 1,045 yuan/ton, the 0 - 3 month spread was 875 yuan/ton, and the AD - AL spread was - 140 yuan/ton. The weekly open interest and trading volume decreased [108]. Inventory - As of last Friday, the ADC12 inventory was 45,900 tons, with a slight inventory reduction [108].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall idea is to allocate long positions at low levels, reduce positions before the Spring Festival, and pay attention to capital sentiment. Although the supply expectation has improved, the current market sentiment of being bullish on non - ferrous metals remains unchanged [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - ly View - In Shanxi and Henan, bauxite prices are stable. The mainstream transaction price of Guinea bulk ore remained stable at $61.5 per dry ton week - on - week. Alumina operating capacity decreased by 800,000 tons to 94.25 million tons week - on - week, and the national alumina inventory increased by 79,000 tons to 5.193 million tons. Electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increased by 42,000 tons to 44.676 million tons week - on - week. Domestic downstream aluminum processing leading enterprises' operating rate decreased by 1.5% to 57.9% week - on - week. Aluminum ingot social inventory continued to accumulate during the week. The order support for recycled cast aluminum alloy was insufficient, dragging down the operating rate of recycled aluminum plants [4]. 3.2. Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents data on the US Treasury yield curve (10 - year, 2 - year, and 10 - year real yield), the US dollar index, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB [6]. 3.3. Bauxite - Domestic bauxite prices have been stable recently. Fundamental issues such as mining rectification, mine reclamation requirements, and strengthened safety and environmental supervision are difficult to solve in the short term. Most mines enter the shutdown period during the Spring Festival, and the resumption of production is generally postponed until after the National Two Sessions. The cost of using domestic ore is significantly higher than that of imported ore, and the continuous decline in the price of imported ore puts great pressure on domestic ore. The mainstream transaction price of Guinea bulk ore remained stable at $61.5 per dry ton week - on - week. The shipping volume of Guinea ore increased, and the spot supply of imported ore increased, putting pressure on the ore price [9]. 3.4. Alumina - As of last Friday, the alumina production capacity was 114.62 million tons, unchanged week - on - week; the operating capacity was 94.25 million tons, a decrease of 800,000 tons week - on - week, with an operating rate of 82.3%. The weighted price of domestic spot alumina was 2,610.4 yuan per ton, unchanged week - on - week. The national alumina inventory was 5.193 million tons, an increase of 79,000 tons week - on - week. Near the Spring Festival, the operating capacity of alumina in the country fluctuates. Two alumina enterprises in Guangxi that had been under maintenance will resume production one after another, and two enterprises in Shanxi that had planned maintenance will carry out maintenance. The decline in bauxite prices provides room for alumina enterprises to reduce production costs and also opens up space for a possible decline in alumina prices [12]. 3.5. Important High - frequency Data of Alumina - The report presents data on the basis, alumina port inventory, north - south price difference, and alumina transportation volume [14][15][16][17]. 3.6. Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 45.402 million tons, unchanged week - on - week; the operating capacity was 44.676 million tons, an increase of 42,000 tons week - on - week. New production capacity: The first - phase 120,000 - ton capacity of Tianshan Aluminum has reached full production, and the second - phase 80,000 - ton capacity is still under construction, expected to reach full production within the year. Zha Aluminum's 350,000 - ton capacity will be built and put into production and reach full production in 2026. Guangxi Longlin is accelerating the revitalization of 57,100 tons of idle capacity. Overseas, on the 11th, the first batch of 500,000 - ton electrolytic aluminum project in North Kalimantan, Indonesia, started production. On the 15th, the first - phase 120,000 - ton electrolytic aluminum project of Huatong Angola Industrial Co., Ltd. held an official commissioning ceremony, and full production may be achieved in the second quarter [19]. 3.7. Important High - frequency Data of Electrolytic Aluminum - The report presents data on the processing fee of 6063 aluminum rods, the forward curve of Shanghai aluminum, the price of thermal coal, and the import profit of aluminum [21]. 3.8. Inventory - The report presents data on the social inventory of aluminum rods, the social inventory of aluminum ingots, the aluminum futures inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the LME aluminum inventory [23][24][25][26]. 3.9. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum alloy enterprises decreased by 0.6% to 58.3% week - on - week. The decline in aluminum prices did not effectively stimulate trading volume. Downstream die - casting enterprises mainly purchased for rigid demand and replenished inventory at low prices due to weak orders and the expectation of pre - holiday shutdown, with low inventory - building willingness. Insufficient order support dragged down the operating rate of recycled aluminum plants [29]. 3.10. Important High - frequency Data of Cast Aluminum Alloy - The report presents data on the average price of profile aluminum, the forward curve of aluminum alloy futures, the seasonal trend of the price difference between ADC12 and A00, and the import profit of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots [31][32][33][34]. 3.11. Downstream Operating Rate (First Part) - The operating rate of domestic downstream aluminum processing leading enterprises decreased by 1.5% to 57.9% week - on - week. The operating rate of leading aluminum profile enterprises decreased by 8.3% to 36% week - on - week. As the Spring Festival approaches, profile enterprises are in the year - end finishing stage, and the operating rate has declined. The operating rate of leading aluminum plate and strip enterprises increased by 2% to 66% week - on - week. The environmental protection restrictions in the central plains region have temporarily ended, and related enterprises have gradually resumed pre - holiday inventory - building, while accelerating the shipment of finished products to reduce inventory pressure. Can - making materials still maintain full - line operation, and the production lines of mid - and low - end products have seen an increase in operating rate due to the decline in aluminum prices and pre - holiday inventory - building demand [41]. 3.12. Downstream Operating Rate (Second Part) - The operating rate of domestic leading cable enterprises decreased by 2.6% to 58% week - on - week. As the Spring Festival approaches, enterprises actively adjust their production rhythm, resulting in a decline in operating rate. Although downstream cable enterprises have successively received power grid orders at the average price of last week, the shipment rhythm of leading enterprises has slowed down due to weak terminal提货 demand at the end of the year. The operating rate of leading primary aluminum alloy enterprises decreased by 0.5% to 57.9% week - on - week. As the Spring Festival approaches, most enterprises actively reduce production due to the traditional off - season, and both production and on - hand orders show a slight contraction [45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January, the Shanghai aluminum futures showed an upward trend with significant fluctuations, driven by macro - factors and capital resonance. The alumina futures had a wide - range volatile trend affected by the chemical sector and supply - side production cuts. The cast aluminum alloy futures moved in tandem with Shanghai aluminum [6][9][12]. - In 2025, the alumina supply was loose, and it is expected to remain so in 2026. The electrolytic aluminum supply - demand situation worsened in 2025 but is expected to shift from oversupply to undersupply in 2026. The recycled aluminum alloy maintained a balanced pattern in 2025 and is expected to continue a tight - balance situation in 2026 [95][96]. - In February 2026, the aluminum price is expected to decline first and then rise, with the Shanghai aluminum price mainly ranging from 22,000 to 25,000. Alumina will continue to bottom - out, and the recommended strategy is to short on rallies, with the price mainly ranging from 2,200 to 2,900. The cast aluminum alloy price will be mainly in the range of 21,000 - 24,000 [100]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Aluminum**: Since January, the Shanghai aluminum futures oscillated upward, with several sharp increases followed by consolidation, and a significant decline on the last trading day of the month affected by the precious metals market. Macro - factors and capital resonance were the main driving forces [6]. - **Alumina**: Since January, the alumina futures first rose, then fell, and then rebounded, showing a wide - range volatile trend, influenced by the active chemical sector and minor supply - side production cuts [9]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Since its listing in June, the cast aluminum alloy futures showed an oscillating upward trend, generally in sync with the Shanghai aluminum futures [12]. 3.2 Upstream of the Industrial Chain - **Bauxite**: In 2025, China's bauxite imports increased by 17.1% year - on - year, with imports from Guinea up 38%. The domestic bauxite production decreased by 7.86% year - on - year. The external dependence on bauxite is expected to exceed 75% in 2026 [17]. - **Alumina**: In 2025, China's alumina exports increased by 42.7% year - on - year, and imports in November increased by 134.11% year - on - year. The production increased, and with new capacity coming online, it is expected to grow by about 5% in 2026. As of January 16, 2026, the total alumina inventory increased by 36.5% compared with the same period in 2025 [21][23][27]. 3.3 Middle - stream of the Industrial Chain - **Primary Aluminum Import**: In November 2025, domestic primary aluminum imports decreased by 40.8% month - on - month and 2.5% year - on - year. From 2024 to now, imports have increased significantly, and it is expected to remain at a high level in the future [32]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Capacity**: The total electrolytic aluminum capacity is stable with a slight increase. The in - production capacity has been increasing since 2024. In 2025, it maintained a high - level operation. In 2026, 1.78 million tons of capacity is planned to be cut, and 2.414 million tons of new capacity is to be released [36]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In December 2025, electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3% year - on - year, and the annual production increased by 2.4% year - on - year. In December, the downstream开工率 decreased, and the aluminum - water ratio dropped [39]. - **Aluminum Plant Profits**: Since 2025, aluminum plant profits have increased significantly. As of January 19, 2026, the immediate profit of self - power - supplied aluminum plants and grid - powered aluminum plants has exceeded the 2023 - 2024 level [43]. - **Aluminum Ingot Social Inventory**: The annual inventory level has been decreasing in recent years. In 2026, it is expected to have two periods of inventory accumulation during the off - season, with the annual high point after the Spring Festival [46]. 3.4 Downstream of the Industrial Chain - **Aluminum Processing Industry**: Since 2023, the aluminum processing industry has had a low operating rate. Currently, it is in the off - season, and the operating rate of each segment has decreased month - on - month [52]. - **Aluminum Alloy Import and Export**: In November 2025, the import of unforged aluminum alloy decreased by 28.2% year - on - year and 4.1% month - on - month, while the export increased by 51.6% year - on - year and decreased by 1.1% month - on - month [55]. - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy Production**: The production of recycled aluminum alloy has been increasing year by year. From January to October 2025, the cumulative production increased by 23.55% year - on - year [59]. - **Aluminum Alloy Product Inventory**: Since 2025, the aluminum alloy ingot inventory has been accumulating, especially during the off - season, and it is expected to continue rising in the short term [62]. - **Aluminum Product Export**: In 2025, the cumulative export of unforged aluminum and aluminum products decreased by 8.0% year - on - year. Due to trade barriers, it is expected to continue to decline in 2026 [66]. 3.5 Terminal of the Industrial Chain - **Real Estate Industry**: In 2025, the real estate market was in a deep adjustment period, with investment, new construction, and sales all declining. It is expected to take time to recover [72][75]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: In 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles increased significantly. However, the growth rate is expected to slow down to 15 - 20% in 2026 [78]. - **Three Major Home Appliances**: In 2025, the production of three major home appliances showed a slow - down in growth. It is expected to maintain positive growth in 2026 with policy support [82]. - **Power Grid Investment**: In 2025, the power grid investment increased by 5.93% year - on - year. In 2026, the UHV construction is expected to continue to develop rapidly [85]. - **Photovoltaic Industry**: In 2025, the photovoltaic industry had a high - speed development, but there was over - capacity. In 2026, the industry will face resource integration, and the global new photovoltaic installation is expected to reach 665GW [89]. - **Recycled Aluminum Import**: In 2025, the import of scrap aluminum increased significantly. It is expected that the tight supply of scrap aluminum will continue [92].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For caustic soda, it is in low - level oscillation in the short - term. In the long - term, it is necessary to focus on the demand increment brought by the new alumina production capacity. If it is successfully put into production, consider going long at low prices [23][24] - For alumina, it is in low - level oscillation in the short - term. For Shanghai aluminum and cast aluminum alloy, they are in high - level oscillation in the short - term. In the long - term, in a quantitative easing environment, Shanghai aluminum and cast aluminum alloy will oscillate strongly, while alumina will oscillate widely at a low level without large - scale production cuts [26][27] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Industry Chain Related Products Futures and Spot Prices and Basis Trends - The report presents the trends of domestic alumina, aluminum, caustic soda, and cast aluminum alloy futures and spot prices and their basis through charts [4] Caustic Soda Supply Side - As of January 23, the weekly operating rate of caustic soda enterprises was 87.7%, a 1% increase from the previous week, and the weekly output was 863,000 tons, a 10,000 - ton increase from the previous week. The weekly inventory was 509,600 tons, a 2,500 - ton decrease from the previous week, showing a narrow de - stocking but still at a high level [8] Aluminum Raw Material Supply Side - As of January 23, the bauxite port inventory was 24.5 million tons, an increase of 482,400 tons from the previous week. As of the end of December, the bauxite inventory of alumina plants was 24.66 million tons, a 2.07% increase from the previous month and a 12.55% increase from the same period last year, at a historical high [10][11] Alumina Supply Side - As of January 23, the weekly operating rate of alumina enterprises was 85.18%, a 0.65 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week, and the weekly output was 1.839 million tons, a 14,000 - ton decrease from the previous week. The total inventory was 5.487 million tons, an increase of 94,000 tons from the previous week [14] Electrolytic Aluminum Supply Side - As of the end of December, China's primary aluminum production was 3,767,000 tons, and the import volume was 189,200 tons. The operating rate of the electrolytic aluminum industry was 98.3%, remaining at a high level. As of the end of November, the inventory was 595,000 tons [17] Main Inventory Trends of Three Major Aluminum Exchanges - As of January 23, the LME aluminum inventory was 509,300 tons, an increase of 21,275 tons from last Friday. The SHFE aluminum inventory was 197,100 tons, an increase of 11,200 tons from last Friday. The COMEX aluminum inventory was 5,449 tons, a decrease of 989 tons from the previous week. Overall, the electrolytic aluminum inventory of the three major global exchanges continued to accumulate this week [21][22] Strategy Recommendations Caustic Soda - This week, the caustic soda futures price continued to decline. As of Friday afternoon, the closing price of the main caustic soda contract was 1,945 yuan/ton, a 3.04% decrease from last Friday. The spot price changed little. As of January 23, the converted price of 32% liquid caustic soda was 2,330 yuan/ton, a 0.21% decrease from last Friday. In the short - term, it is in low - level oscillation. In the long - term, pay attention to the demand increment brought by the new alumina production capacity [23][24] Alumina, Shanghai Aluminum, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - This week, the futures prices of alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and cast aluminum alloy basically maintained an oscillating trend. As of Friday afternoon, the closing price of the main alumina contract was 2,724 yuan/ton, a 0.98% decrease from last Friday; the closing price of the main Shanghai aluminum contract was 24,290 yuan/ton, a 1.53% increase from last Friday; the closing price of the main cast aluminum alloy contract was 22,995 yuan/ton, a 1.14% increase from last Friday. In the short - term, alumina is in low - level oscillation, and Shanghai aluminum and cast aluminum alloy are in high - level oscillation. In the long - term, Shanghai aluminum and cast aluminum alloy will oscillate strongly in a quantitative easing environment, while alumina will oscillate widely at a low level without large - scale production cuts [26][27]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Alumina - On January 22, the domestic ore price was 501 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 0 yuan/ton; the Guinea imported ore price was 62 US dollars/dry ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 1 US dollar/dry ton [1] - On January 22, the spot price index was 2633 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 1 yuan/ton [1] - On January 22, the futures inventory was 68432 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 457 tons [1] - On January 22, the aluminum import profit and loss was - 2056 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 4 yuan/ton [1] Electrolytic Aluminum - On January 22, the SMA00 average price was 23740 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of ×30 yuan/ton, and the premium and discount was - 150 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 0 yuan/ton [1] - On January 22, the electrolytic aluminum smelting profit was 7609 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 30 yuan/ton [1] - On January 22, the futures inventory was 138856 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 101 tons [1] - On January 22, the import profit and loss was 143 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 9 yuan/ton [1] Aluminum Alloy - On January 22, the Baotai 4001 alloy price was 2300 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 0 yuan/ton [1] - On January 21, the refined - scrap price difference of raw aluminum was 2509 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/ton; the refined - scrap price difference of profile aluminum was 3530 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/ton [1] - On January 22, the futures inventory was 126641 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 7513 tons [1] - On January 22, the import profit and loss was 2 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5 yuan/ton [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Report Core View - No relevant content found Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Alumina - On January 21, the domestic ore price was 501 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of 0 yuan/ton; the imported ore price from Guinea was 63 US dollars/dry ton, with a month-on-month change of 0 US dollars/dry ton [1] - The spot price index on January 21 was 2634 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 3 yuan/ton [1] - The futures inventory on January 21 was 6,889 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 177 tons [1] - The aluminum import profit and loss on January 21 was -2052 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 464 yuan/ton [1] Electrolytic Aluminum - On January 21, the average price of 8M A00 was 23,710 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 30 yuan/ton, and the premium/discount was -150 yuan/ton [1] - The electrolytic aluminum smelting profit on January 21 was 7,579 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 34 yuan/ton [1] - The futures inventory on January 21 was 138,755 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1,196 tons [1] - The import profit and loss on January 21 was 134 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 21 yuan/ton [1] Aluminum Alloy - On January 21, the Baotai 4001 price was 2,040 yuan/ton, with a month-on-month change of 0 yuan/ton [1] - The refined - scrap price difference of raw aluminum on January 21 was 2,509 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 20 yuan/ton; the refined - scrap price difference of profile aluminum was 3,530 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 20 yuan/ton [1] - The futures inventory on January 21 was 119,128 tons, a month-on-month increase of 3,012 tons [1] - The import profit and loss on January 21 was -3 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 42 yuan/ton [1]

Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum Industry Chain Weekly Report - Report Date: January 19, 2026 - Research Team: Industrial Service Headquarters | Non - ferrous Metals Team - Researcher: Wang Guodong [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of bauxite in Shanxi and Henan are temporarily stable, while the mainstream transaction price of Guinea bulk ore has decreased week - on - week. Both domestic and foreign ore prices are expected to continue to decline under pressure. The alumina market has a relatively stable supply, but the previous hype about enterprise restructuring has cooled down, and the alumina price has given back its previous gains. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is increasing, and new production capacities are being put into operation at home and abroad. The overall demand for aluminum is gradually entering the off - season, and the start - up rate of downstream processing enterprises may continue to face pressure. The social inventory of aluminum ingots is accumulating. In the short term, Shanghai aluminum may continue to adjust at a high level [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Economic Indicators - The report presents data on the US Treasury yield curve (2 - year, 10 - year, 10 - year minus 2 - year), the US dollar index, the US Treasury 10 - year real yield, inflation expectations, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB (inter - bank middle rate, on - shore and off - shore spot rates) [6][7] 3.2 Bauxite - The prices of bauxite in Shanxi and Henan are temporarily stable. Due to the small proportion of circulating goods, the prices of domestic ore have stabilized after a general reduction, and it is not yet the next long - term contract negotiation cycle. Mining rectification, mine reclamation requirements, and strengthened safety and environmental supervision are still the core bottlenecks restricting the resumption of production of many mines, which are difficult to solve fundamentally in the short term. The mainstream transaction price of Guinea bulk ore has decreased by $1.9 per dry ton week - on - week to $63.8 per dry ton. The shipping volume of Guinea ore has increased, the spot supply of imported ore has increased, and the ore price continues to be under pressure. In terms of long - term contracts, the first - quarter long - term contract signing work in the imported ore market has basically ended, and some contracts adopt the monthly pricing model [10] 3.3 Alumina - As of last Friday, the built - in production capacity of alumina was 11,462 tons (unchanged week - on - week), the operating capacity was 9,625 tons (an increase of 40 tons week - on - week), and the start - up rate was 84%. The weighted price of domestic spot alumina was 2,627.6 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 34.1 yuan/ton. The national alumina inventory was 4.988 million tons, an increase of 53,000 tons week - on - week. The national alumina supply is relatively stable. In late January, two alumina plants in Guangxi will conduct rotational maintenance on their roasting furnaces for about 12 days, and it is expected to affect a total output of about 30,000 tons during the maintenance period. The previous hype about the restructuring of alumina enterprises has cooled down, and combined with the correction of the non - ferrous metal sector, the alumina futures price has given back its previous gains [13] 3.4 Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the built - in production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4,540.2 tons (an increase of 10,000 tons week - on - week), and the operating capacity was 4,463.4 tons (an increase of 10,000 tons week - on - week). In terms of new production capacities, the first - phase 120,000 - ton production capacity of Tianshan Aluminum has reached full production, the second - phase 80,000 - ton is still under construction and is expected to reach full production this year. The 350,000 - ton production capacity of Zha Aluminum will be built and put into production and reach full production in 2026. Overseas, on January 15, the first - phase 120,000 - ton electrolytic aluminum project of Huatong Angola Industrial Co., Ltd. was officially put into operation and may reach full production in the second quarter. On January 11, the first batch of 500,000 tons of the North Kalimantan electrolytic aluminum project in Indonesia started production. On January 13, the Slovak government sought to restart the Slovalco aluminum plant with a capacity of about 200,000 tons, and production may resume as early as summer [22] 3.5 Inventory - The report presents the historical data of the social inventory of aluminum rods, the social inventory of aluminum ingots, the Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum futures inventory, and the LME aluminum inventory from 2022 to 2026. The social inventory of aluminum ingots continued to accumulate during the week [27][28][29][30] 3.6 Casting Aluminum Alloy - The start - up rate of leading recycled aluminum alloy enterprises remained stable at 58% week - on - week. Due to the continuous heavy - pollution weather, the regional production restriction policy has been repeatedly implemented, and the start - up rate of enterprises affected by environmental protection production restrictions in the early stage has not recovered. Under the high aluminum price limit, the orders of some recycled aluminum plants have decreased significantly, but downstream die - casting enterprises have been forced to replenish inventory to maintain normal production [33] 3.7 Downstream Start - up - Last week, the start - up rate of leading domestic aluminum downstream processing enterprises increased by 0.2% week - on - week to 60.3%. The start - up rate of leading aluminum profile enterprises decreased by 0.9% week - on - week to 47.9%. In the industrial profile sector, the start - up rate of sample enterprises in the photovoltaic profile segment has slightly increased driven by the component export tax - refund policy, while the automotive profile is relatively stable. In the construction profile sector, the start - up rate has continued to decline, and the downstream market is gradually entering the shutdown and holiday cycle. The start - up rate of leading aluminum plate and strip enterprises increased by 1% week - on - week to 66%. The strong pre - Spring Festival stocking demand for can materials has driven the start - up rate of aluminum plate and strip to recover. However, the processing fee space of mid - and low - end products has been squeezed by the aluminum price, and downstream enterprises have generally postponed their pre - holiday stocking plans and only maintained the on - demand procurement rhythm. The start - up rate of domestic leading cable enterprises remained stable at 59.6% week - on - week. After the New Year's Day holiday, enterprises concentrated on digesting the previously accumulated orders, and the grid order matching work was carried out in an orderly manner. The start - up rate of leading primary aluminum alloy enterprises increased by 0.2% week - on - week to 58.6%. Although the aluminum price is high, approaching the Spring Festival, alloy enterprises have successively carried out pre - holiday inventory replenishment, promoting a slight increase in the start - up rate. Downstream enterprises that previously adopted a two - day weekend due to the high aluminum price have gradually resumed normal production rhythms, and some enterprises have begun to gradually accept the current aluminum price level and carry out pre - holiday inventory replenishment [45][49]

Core Viewpoint - Innovation Industry (2788.HK) has seen a significant stock price increase, rising over 8% to reach a new high of 27.6 HKD, with a cumulative increase of over 80% since its listing, and its market capitalization briefly exceeding 57 billion HKD [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Innovation Industry focuses on the upstream of the aluminum industry chain, specifically in alumina refining and electrolytic aluminum smelting [1] - The company has plans to invest in a comprehensive aluminum industry chain project in the Red Sea, Saudi Arabia, in collaboration with Innovation Group and Innovation New Materials [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - Since 2026, the price of electrolytic aluminum has significantly increased, and the overall supply-demand tightness is expected to persist [1] - Despite cautious purchasing sentiment from downstream sectors, the long-term trend indicates a further upward shift in electrolytic aluminum profit margins, suggesting a continuation of the industry's high-profit cycle [1] - Analysts remain optimistic about the profitability of the electrolytic aluminum sector in the first half of 2026 [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The document does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Viewpoints - Aluminum is following the upward trend of copper, but its price elasticity is limited by weak spot fundamentals. The price may experience a "dip" due to the decline in photovoltaic enterprise production, but the downside is limited if the risk appetite of traditional non - ferrous sectors remains strong in Q1 [3]. - Alumina once hit the daily limit on Friday due to the policy guidance. However, the market turnaround depends on significant supply - side clearance and re - balance of supply and demand. The mid - term strategy is to find selling points during price rebounds [4]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Price and Market Performance - **Aluminum Price**: Aluminum is following the upward trend of traditional non - ferrous and precious metals, but the weak spot fundamentals limit its price elasticity. The short - term demand is weak, with significant inventory accumulation and expanding spot discounts [3]. - **Alumina Price**: Alumina once hit the daily limit on Friday due to policy guidance. The price is affected by supply - demand imbalance, short - position trading factors, and cost considerations. The price may fluctuate more at lower levels, and the mid - term view is to sell on rebounds [4]. - **Futures Data**: This week, the trading volume of most aluminum - related futures increased, and the positions showed differentiation. The price of most futures rose, and the inventory and price differences also changed [5]. 3.2 Trading - end Analysis - **Price Differences** - **Spot - Futures Price Differences**: This week, the spot premiums of both A00 aluminum and alumina weakened. For example, the average SMM A00 aluminum spot premium decreased from - 50 yuan/ton to - 190 yuan/ton, and the Shandong alumina premium to the current month decreased from 156 yuan/ton to - 147 yuan/ton [10]. - **Monthly Price Differences**: The near - month price difference of Shanghai aluminum weakened [11]. - **Volume and Open Interest** - The open interest of the Shanghai aluminum main contract decreased slightly, while the trading volume increased slightly. - The open interest and trading volume of the alumina main contract increased significantly, and the open interest remained at a historical high [14]. - **Open Interest - to - Inventory Ratio**: The open interest - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai aluminum decreased, while that of alumina increased slightly and remained at a historically low level [19]. 3.3 Inventory Analysis - **Bauxite**: As of December 26, the port inventory of imported bauxite decreased, and the inventory days remained stable. In November, the bauxite inventory of alumina enterprises decreased. The Guinea port shipment volume decreased, while the Australian port shipment volume increased. The Guinea sea - floating inventory increased, and the Australian sea - floating inventory decreased [25][30][31]. - **Alumina**: The total national inventory and the all - caliber inventory of alumina continued to accumulate. The factory inventory, electrolytic aluminum plant inventory, and platform/in - transit inventory increased, while the port inventory decreased [45][52]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of December 25, the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 51,000 tons to 612,000 tons this week [53]. - **Processed Products** - **Aluminum Rod**: This week, the spot inventory and factory inventory of aluminum rods showed differentiation [59]. - **Aluminum Profiles and Plate - Foil**: In November, the inventory ratios of both raw materials and finished products of aluminum profiles and plate - foil increased slightly [62]. 3.4 Production Analysis - **Bauxite**: In November, the domestic bauxite supply was mainly stable, with a slight decline in SMM - caliber domestic production. The supply of imported bauxite was an important factor driving the growth of the total supply. By province, the production in some regions decreased, while in others it increased [67][68]. - **Alumina**: The capacity utilization rate remained stable. As of December 26, the total operating capacity decreased by 300,000 tons. This week, the domestic metallurgical - grade alumina production was 1.838 million tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from last week. The supply - side surplus situation has not changed [72]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of November, the operating capacity remained at a high level, and the capacity utilization rate was high due to profit restoration. As of December 11, the weekly production was 856,700 tons, an increase of 400 tons from last week. The aluminum - water ratio decreased seasonally [75]. - **Downstream Processing** - **Output**: This week, the output of recycled aluminum rods, aluminum rods, and aluminum plate - foil decreased [78]. - **开工率**: The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream leading enterprises decreased by 0.7%. By sector, the operating rates of aluminum plate - strip, aluminum foil, aluminum profiles, and aluminum cables decreased, while the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy increased [79][82][84]. 3.5 Profit Analysis - **Alumina**: In November, the alumina profit continued to decline slightly, and the smelting profit was under pressure. By province, the profits in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan remained stable, while the profit in Guangxi was better [86]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The profit remained at a high level, but uncertain factors such as the complex global macro - economic situation and overseas geopolitical conflicts interfered with market expectations [99]. - **Downstream Processing**: The processing fee of aluminum rods decreased by 20 yuan/ton this week, and the downstream processing profit remained at a low level [100]. 3.6 Consumption Analysis - **Import and Export** - **Import**: The import losses of alumina and Shanghai aluminum have widened [109]. - **Export**: In November 2025, the total export volume of aluminum products increased slightly, but the export demand is affected by trade policy adjustments [111]. - **Consumption Volume**: The commercial housing transaction area is at a low level, while the automobile production increased month - on - month [114].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View No clear core view presented in the given text. It mainly focuses on the daily data tracking of the aluminum industry chain. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Alumina - Price: $68 per dry ton, a decrease of $1 per dry ton compared to the previous period [3] - Spot price index on December 22: 2,754 yuan per ton, a decrease of 8 yuan per ton [3] - Futures inventory on December 22: 168,677 tons, a decrease of 11,122 tons [3] - Import profit and loss on December 22: 15 yuan per ton, a decrease of 8 yuan per ton [3] Electrolytic Aluminum - Domestic ore price on December 22: 509 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous period [4] - SMI 400 average price on December 22: 21,930 yuan per ton, an increase of 110 yuan per ton; the premium and discount was -170 yuan per ton, a decrease of 20 yuan per ton [4] - Baotai A0012 price on December 22: 21,300 yuan per ton, unchanged [4] - Electrolytic aluminum smelting profit on December 22: 5,684 yuan per ton, an increase of 124 yuan per ton [47] - Futures inventory on December 22: 76,088 tons, a decrease of 100 tons [47] - Aluminum import profit and loss on December 22: -2,466 yuan per ton, a decrease of 318 yuan per ton [47] Aluminum Alloy - Scrap price difference of raw aluminum on December 22: 2,026 yuan per ton, an increase of 110 yuan per ton; the scrap price difference of profile aluminum was 2,779 yuan per ton, an increase of 110 yuan per ton [5] - Futures inventory on December 22: 70,161 tons, an increase of 28 tons [5] - Import profit and loss on December 22: -80 yuan per ton, an increase of 24 yuan per ton [5]