Core Viewpoint - The aluminum sector, particularly companies like Innovation Industry Group, is gaining attention in the global capital markets alongside AI industries, with significant stock price increases and upcoming IPOs in Hong Kong [1][2][3]. Company Overview - Innovation Industry Group, founded in 2012 and headquartered in Hohhot, Inner Mongolia, focuses on the aluminum industry, specifically alumina refining and electrolytic aluminum smelting [8][9]. - The company has a production capacity of 788,100 tons for electrolytic aluminum and 1,200,000 tons for alumina, with high capacity utilization rates exceeding 94% for electrolytic aluminum and 88% for alumina [12][13]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue has shown growth, with figures of 13.49 billion RMB in 2022, 13.81 billion RMB in 2023, and projected 15.16 billion RMB in 2024, alongside net profits of 0.913 billion RMB, 1.081 billion RMB, and 2.63 billion RMB respectively [16][19]. - The gross profit margin has fluctuated, with a notable increase to 28.2% in 2024, but a decrease to 19.9% in the first five months of 2025 due to rising raw material costs [16][19][26]. Market Dynamics - The demand for aluminum is driven by applications in various sectors, including electronics, automotive, and construction, with electrolytic aluminum accounting for approximately 70% of global consumption [31][38]. - The company is positioned as the 12th largest electrolytic aluminum producer in China, which is a major player in the global aluminum market [37]. Supply Chain and Costs - The main raw materials include bauxite, carbon anodes, coal, alumina, and electricity, with electricity costs constituting about 36% of total production costs [23]. - The company has a high self-sufficiency rate for electricity at 88%, significantly above the industry average of 57% [23]. Risks and Challenges - The company faces challenges related to high debt levels, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 84.8%, and reliance on imported bauxite, which is subject to global supply chain fluctuations [15][28][25]. - The price of bauxite has increased, impacting profit margins, and the company has a high dependency on a few major clients, with significant revenue coming from related party transactions [27][28]. Future Outlook - The global demand for electrolytic aluminum is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 1.6% from 2025 to 2028, with China's demand projected to increase slightly [38]. - The company’s ability to navigate market fluctuations and maintain stable operations will be crucial for its future performance [42][43].

Core Viewpoint - Innovation Industry has passed the Hong Kong Stock Exchange hearing and updated its post-hearing prospectus on November 9, focusing on the upstream aluminum industry chain, specifically alumina refining and electrolytic aluminum smelting [3][5]. Company Overview - Innovation Industry's business is primarily divided into the production and sales of electrolytic aluminum and alumina, with electrolytic aluminum sales contributing 76.6% of total revenue for the five months ending May 31, 2025 [3][8][12]. - The company strategically established its operations in Hohhot, Inner Mongolia, since 2012, positioning itself as the fourth largest electrolytic aluminum production base in North China by 2024 [12][14]. Financial Performance - For the five months ending May 31, 2025, Innovation Industry reported revenue of approximately 7.214 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 22.6%, while shareholder profit was approximately 756 million RMB, a decrease of 14.1% [3][15]. - The company's revenue and profit figures for previous years indicate a fluctuating performance, with notable growth in revenue but a decline in profit for the latest reporting period [15]. Production Capacity - As of May 31, 2025, the annual designed production capacity for electrolytic aluminum in Hohhot is 788.1 thousand tons, and for alumina in Binzhou, Shandong, it is 1.2 million tons [13][14]. - The actual production figures for the same period were 310.7 thousand tons of electrolytic aluminum and 664.5 thousand tons of alumina, with self-sufficiency rates for alumina and electricity at 70% and 87%, respectively [14]. Future Plans - The company plans to use the net proceeds from its fundraising for expanding overseas capacity, including building electrolytic aluminum smelting plants and purchasing production equipment, as well as for green energy projects and general corporate purposes [7][17]. - Innovation Industry aims to invest in a comprehensive electrolytic aluminum project in Saudi Arabia with an expected annual capacity of 500 thousand tons [12].

1. Report Title - The report is titled "Aluminum Industry Chain Daily Review 20251110: Domestic Traditional Consumption Off - season Suppresses Aluminum Prices" [1] 2. Price and Market Data 2.1 Alumina - The national average price of alumina on 2025 - 11 - 07 was 2868.57 yuan/ton, showing a change compared to previous days. Different regions in China had varying alumina average prices, such as 2845 yuan/ton in Shanxi and 2975 yuan/ton in Guizhou on 2025 - 11 - 07. The Australian alumina FOB price was 319 dollars/ton on the same day [2] - Alumina futures had a closing price of 2789 yuan/ton on 2025 - 11 - 07, with changes in trading volume, open interest, and inventory. The basis and spreads between different contract months also fluctuated [2] 2.2 Electrolytic Aluminum - The SMM A00 aluminum - semi - cut price was 21440 yuan/ton on 2025 - 11 - 07. The electrolytic aluminum futures closing price was 21600 yuan/ton, with corresponding changes in trading volume, open interest, and inventory. The basis and spreads between different contract months also changed [2] 2.3 Aluminum Alloy - The SMM ADC12 (primary aluminum) average price was 22550 yuan/ton on 2025 - 11 - 07. The futures price of cast aluminum alloy and related basis and spreads also showed fluctuations [2] 2.4 London Aluminum - The LME 3 - month aluminum futures closing price (electronic trading) was 10930 on 2025 - 11 - 07. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 134625, and the spreads between different contract months also changed [2] 3. Core Views 3.1 Alumina - Domestic bauxite supply - demand is expected to be loose, but the prices of domestic (Guinea and Australia) bauxite have changed, leading to production losses for domestic and imported bauxite - based alumina. Overseas, new alumina production capacity is coming online, while some domestic alumina production capacity is undergoing phased production cuts or maintenance, reducing the supply - demand surplus. The production losses may limit the downward space of alumina prices [2] 3.2 Electrolytic Aluminum - On the supply side, high production profits have led to high operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum, but the proportion of molten aluminum production has increased. The expected new replacement capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum is limited. On the demand side, the operating capacity of the domestic aluminum processing industry has decreased, and the capacity utilization rates of aluminum cables, profiles, sheets, and foils have declined. On the inventory side, both domestic and LME electrolytic aluminum inventories have decreased. Due to the one - year economic and trade agreement between China and the US, the increasing proportion of domestic molten aluminum production, the hawkish expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, and the arrival of the domestic traditional consumption off - season, the Shanghai aluminum price may be adjusted [2] 3.3 Aluminum Alloy - The daily full - cost production cost of China's recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 is 21050 yuan/ton, with negative profits, and the capacity utilization rate has remained flat. The social inventory of Chinese aluminum alloy has increased, while the raw material (finished product) inventory of recycled aluminum alloy enterprises has decreased (increased). Due to the one - year economic and trade agreement between China and the US, the expected tight supply - demand of domestic scrap aluminum, and the arrival of the domestic traditional consumption off - season, the continuous accumulation of aluminum alloy social inventory may lead to an adjustment of aluminum alloy prices [2] 4. Trading Strategies 4.1 Alumina - Temporarily wait and observe, paying attention to the support level around 2600 - 2700 and the resistance level around 2900 - 3200 (view score: 0) [2] 4.2 Electrolytic Aluminum - Try shorting the main contract with a light position in the short - term, paying attention to the support level around 20300 - 20600 and the resistance level around 21800 - 22300 for Shanghai aluminum, and the support level around 2600 - 2700 and the resistance level around 2900 - 3000 for London aluminum (view score: - 1) [2] 4.3 Aluminum Alloy - Try shorting the main contract with a light position in the short - term, and hold the long position of the previous electrolytic aluminum - aluminum alloy spread cautiously, paying attention to the support level around 20300 - 20600 and the resistance level around 21300 - 21800 (view score: - 1) [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic aluminum market is in a transition from peak season to off - season. The supply and demand situation is complex, with changes in production capacity, consumption, and inventory. The recent sharp rise in aluminum stocks and the influx of funds into the Shanghai Aluminum market are based on expectations of supply shortages in the US, but there are risks of over - trading. Short - term observation is recommended [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - on - Week View - **Fundamental Analysis**: Domestic bauxite supply in Shanxi and Henan is expected to improve, while the price of Guinea bauxite has declined. Alumina production capacity has increased slightly, and inventory has risen. Electrolytic aluminum production capacity has decreased slightly, with some reduction due to technical upgrades and environmental protection. Domestic downstream processing enterprise operating rates have declined, and aluminum ingot inventory has increased slightly. In the recycled casting aluminum alloy sector, the production of leading enterprises has not been affected for the time being [4]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: For alumina, it is recommended to take profit on long positions and sold out - of - the - money put options. For Shanghai Aluminum and casting aluminum alloy, it is recommended to strengthen observation [5]. 3.2. Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents data on US Treasury bond yields (10 - year and 2 - year), the US dollar index, inflation expectations, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar, but no specific analysis is provided [7][8]. 3.3. Bauxite - The prices of bauxite in Shanxi and Henan are stable, and the supply of domestic ore is expected to improve. The mainstream transaction price of Guinea bauxite has decreased by $1 per dry ton to $71.5 per dry ton. The end of the rainy season in Guinea and the weakening of alumina prices have put downward pressure on bauxite prices [11]. 3.4. Alumina - As of last Friday, the built - in production capacity of alumina remained unchanged week - on - week at 11,462 million tons, the operating capacity increased by 100,000 tons to 9,685 million tons, and the operating rate was 84.5%. The weighted price of domestic spot alumina decreased by 33.7 yuan/ton to 2,837.5 yuan/ton. National alumina inventory increased by 88,000 tons to 4.218 million tons. Some enterprises in the north have reduced production due to heavy pollution weather, while some have slightly increased production after stable operation [14]. 3.5. Important High - Frequency Data of Alumina - The report presents data on alumina basis, port inventory, north - south price difference, and transportation volume, but no specific analysis is provided [16][17][18][19]. 3.6. Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the built - in production capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained unchanged week - on - week at 4.5232 million tons, and the operating capacity decreased by 10,000 tons to 4.4424 million tons. Some enterprises have reduced production for technical upgrades and environmental protection reasons, while new production capacity is expected to be put into operation [23]. 3.7. Important High - Frequency Data of Electrolytic Aluminum - The report presents data on aluminum import profit, Shanghai Aluminum forward curve, aluminum rod processing fee, and thermal coal price, but no specific analysis is provided [25][26][27]. 3.8. Inventory - The report presents data on aluminum rod social inventory, aluminum ingot social inventory, Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum futures inventory, and LME aluminum inventory, but no specific analysis is provided [29][30][31][32]. 3.9. Casting Aluminum Alloy - The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum alloy enterprises remained stable at 59.1% week - on - week. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight and the price is high. The demand from the automotive end has resilience, but the high aluminum price has led to a decline in downstream purchasing enthusiasm. The production of leading enterprises has not been affected for the time being [37]. 3.10. Important High - Frequency Data of Casting Aluminum Alloy - The report presents data on the price of aluminum profiles, the forward curve of aluminum alloy futures, the price difference between ADC12 and A00 aluminum, and the import profit of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots, but no specific analysis is provided [39][40][41][42][43]. 3.11. Downstream Operating Rate (First Part) - The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.6% to 61.6% week - on - week. The operating rate of aluminum profile leading enterprises decreased by 0.9% to 52.6%, with different performance in industrial and construction profiles. The operating rate of aluminum plate and strip leading enterprises decreased by 0.4% to 66%, affected by high aluminum prices and the transition to the off - season [49]. 3.12. Downstream Operating Rate (Second Part) - The operating rate of domestic cable leading enterprises decreased by 1% to 61.4% week - on - week, mainly due to heavy pollution weather control in some areas of Henan and slow order progress. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy leading enterprises increased by 0.2% to 59.4%, with stable production and increased downstream demand [52].

Core Viewpoint - Innovation Industry Group Limited is preparing for a listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, focusing on the upstream aluminum industry, particularly alumina refining and electrolytic aluminum smelting, and is positioned as the 12th largest electrolytic aluminum producer in China by 2024 production capacity [1][4]. Company Overview - Innovation Industry specializes in the upstream aluminum supply chain, which includes bauxite mining, alumina refining, and electrolytic aluminum smelting. The company has developed capabilities across energy, alumina refining, and electrolytic aluminum smelting, achieving a high self-sufficiency rate in alumina and electricity supply, which is strategically significant for its operations [4]. - As of December 31, 2024, the company has a designed production capacity of 788.1 thousand tons per year for electrolytic aluminum and 1200 thousand tons per year for alumina, with production lines already operational [5]. Production Capacity and Performance - The alumina production volumes for Innovation Industry from 2022 to 2024 are approximately 706.2 thousand tons, 1546.1 thousand tons, and 1539.9 thousand tons, respectively, with a self-sufficiency rate of about 84% in 2024 [4]. - The company has also received approval for an annual production capacity of 2980 thousand tons of aluminum hydroxide, with 1480 thousand tons already in production and an additional 1500 thousand tons expected to start trial production in December 2024 [5]. Industry Context - According to CRU's report, global electrolytic aluminum consumption is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.6% from 2025 to 2028. China is projected to have an annual demand gap of over 1 million tons of electrolytic aluminum, continuing until 2034 due to production capacity limits set by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [5]. Financial Performance - The company reported revenues of 13.49 billion RMB, 13.81 billion RMB, and 15.16 billion RMB for the fiscal years 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively, with a profit of approximately 9.13 billion RMB, 10.81 billion RMB, and 26.3 billion RMB during the same periods [7][8]. - For the five months ending May 31, 2025, the company recorded a revenue of 7.21 billion RMB and a profit of approximately 1.04 billion RMB [8].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue but a significant increase in net profit, indicating strong cost control and operational improvements. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 60.124 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.66%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.801 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 90.31% [1] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 176.515 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.57%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.872 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.65% [1] Production and Operations - The company’s production of metallurgical-grade alumina reached 13.04 million tons, and the production of primary aluminum (including alloys) was 6 million tons [2] - The self-sufficiency rate of alumina ore increased by 6 percentage points compared to the beginning of the year, reaching a five-year high [2] - The company has a competitive advantage across the entire industry chain, achieving nearly a 10% reduction in bulk material procurement costs [2] Market Dynamics - Global electrolytic aluminum production is projected to be 72 million tons in 2024, with China's production at 43 million tons, indicating limited domestic supply [4] - The demand for electrolytic aluminum is increasing, particularly in the construction, transportation, electricity, and new energy sectors, driven by the rapid development of new energy vehicles and power [4] Investment Outlook - The company has a complete industrial chain for aluminum products, and with no significant increase in global electrolytic aluminum capacity, prices are expected to remain high [4] - Forecasted net profits for the company are 14.635 billion yuan, 16.107 billion yuan, and 17.72 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12, 11, and 10 [4]

Report Title - Aluminum Industry Chain Daily Review 20251103: China-US One-Year Economic and Trade Agreement Supports Aluminum Prices [1] Report Core View - The China-US one-year economic and trade agreement supports aluminum prices. Although the Fed's interest rate cut expectation turns hawkish, the US dollar index strengthens, and liquidity tightens, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory is decreasing, and the domestic scrap aluminum supply-demand expectation is tight, which may make the prices of electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy cautiously bullish. The production loss of alumina leads to a reduction in the oversupply, and the downward space of alumina price may be gradually limited [2] Industry Data Summary Alumina - **Price**: The national average alumina price was 2,872.95 yuan/ton on October 27, 2,872.04 yuan/ton on October 30, and 2,881.03 yuan/ton on October 31. Prices in different regions also showed certain fluctuations [2] - **Futures**: The closing price of alumina futures was 2,816 yuan/ton on October 27, 2,793 yuan/ton on October 30, and 2,829 yuan/ton on October 31. The trading volume, open interest, and inventory also changed [2] - **Spread**: The basis, near-month - continuous one, continuous one - continuous two, etc. of alumina showed different degrees of change [2] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Price**: The SMM A00 aluminum - semi average price was 21,280 yuan/ton on October 27, 21,200 yuan/ton on October 30, and 21,160 yuan/ton on October 31. Prices in different regions also fluctuated [2] - **Futures**: The closing price of electrolytic aluminum futures was 21,300 yuan/ton on October 27, 21,245 yuan/ton on October 30, and 21,360 yuan/ton on October 31. The trading volume, open interest, and inventory also changed [2] - **Spread**: The basis, near - month - continuous one, continuous one - continuous two, etc. of electrolytic aluminum showed different degrees of change [2] Aluminum Alloy - **Price**: The SMM ADC12 (primary aluminum) - average price was 22,300 yuan/ton on October 27, 22,250 yuan/ton on October 30, and 22,400 yuan/ton on October 31. Prices in different regions and types also fluctuated [2] - **Futures**: The futures closing price (active contract) of cast aluminum alloy was 20,705 yuan/ton on October 27, 20,805 yuan/ton on October 30, and 20,715 yuan/ton on October 31. The trading volume, open interest, and inventory also changed [2] - **Spread**: The basis, near - month - continuous one, continuous one - continuous two, etc. of aluminum alloy showed different degrees of change [2] LME Aluminum - **Price**: The LME 3 - month aluminum futures closing price (electronic disk) was 10,930 on October 27, 10,891.5 on October 31, with a change of - 38.50 [2] - **Spread**: The 0 - 3 month and 3 - 15 month contract spreads of LME aluminum futures also changed [2] Trading Strategy Alumina - Temporarily wait and see, pay attention to the support level around 2,600 - 2,700 and the resistance level around 3,300 - 3,600 (View score: 0) [2] Electrolytic Aluminum - Hold the previous long positions cautiously, pay attention to the support level around 20,300 - 20,600 and the resistance level around 21,500 - 22,000 for Shanghai aluminum, and the support level around 2,600 - 2,700 and the resistance level around 2,900 - 3,000 for LME aluminum (View score: 1) [2] Aluminum Alloy - Hold the previous long positions cautiously, or try to go long on the spread between electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy on dips, pay attention to the support level around 20,000 - 20,300 and the resistance level around 20,800 - 21,000 (View score: 1) [2]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Aluminum Industry Chain Daily Review 20251028: Easing of China-US Economic and Trade Negotiations Supports Aluminum Prices [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 3: Core Views - The easing of China-US economic and trade negotiations supports aluminum prices [1] - Domestic alumina supply and demand is expected to be loose, but production losses may limit the decline in alumina prices [2] - The price of Shanghai aluminum may be cautiously bullish due to expectations of future interest rate cuts and the end of balance sheet reduction by the Federal Reserve, the preliminary agreement reached in China-US economic and trade negotiations, and the decline in inventory [2] - The price of aluminum alloy may be cautiously bullish due to expectations of future interest rate cuts and the end of balance sheet reduction by the Federal Reserve, the preliminary agreement reached in China-US economic and trade negotiations, and the tight supply and demand of domestic scrap aluminum [2] Group 4: Price and Market Data Alumina - The national average price of alumina decreased by 7.10 yuan/ton to 2881.03 yuan/ton [2] - The average price of alumina in various regions such as Shanxi, Shandong, and Henan decreased [2] - The Australian alumina FOB price remained unchanged at 319 US dollars/ton [2] Aluminum - The SMM A00 aluminum semi-average price increased by 50.00 yuan/ton to 21160 yuan/ton [2] - The average price of A00 aluminum in various regions such as Shenyang, Zhongyuan, and Tianjin showed different changes [2] - The closing price of electrolytic aluminum futures increased by 135.00 yuan/ton to 21360 yuan/ton [2] Aluminum Alloy - The SMM ADC12 (primary aluminum) semi-average price increased by 50.00 yuan/ton to 22250 yuan/ton [2] - The futures closing price of cast aluminum alloy increased by 10.00 yuan/ton to 20715 yuan/ton [2] London Aluminum - The LME 3-month aluminum futures closing price (electronic disk) was 10947 (data for some days was N/A) [2] - The LME aluminum futures 0 - 3 month contract spread and 3 - 15 month contract spread showed different values (some data was N/A) [2] Price Ratios - The Shanghai-London aluminum price ratio was 7.4777, an increase of 0.05 [2] Group 5: Market Volume and Position Data Alumina - The trading volume was 251558 lots, and the open interest was 372484 lots [2] - The inventory was 223372 tons [2] Aluminum - The trading volume was 2686.00 lots, and the open interest was 311269 lots [2] - The inventory decreased by 402.00 tons to 66299 tons [2] Aluminum Alloy - The trading volume of cast aluminum alloy futures (active contract) was 3221 lots, and the open interest was 10124 lots [2] Group 6: Basis and Spread Data Alumina - The basis was 52.03 yuan/ton [2] - The spreads between different contract months such as near-month - consecutive first, consecutive first - consecutive second showed different values [2] Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum basis (spot - futures) was -85.00 yuan/ton [2] - The spreads between different contract months such as Shanghai aluminum near - month - Shanghai aluminum consecutive first showed different values [2] Aluminum Alloy - The daily basis of cast aluminum alloy was -10.00 yuan/ton [2] - The spreads between different contract months of cast aluminum alloy showed different values [2] Group 7: Trading Strategies Alumina - Wait for the price to rise to a high level to lay out short positions, and pay attention to the support level around 2600 - 2800 and the resistance level around 3300 - 3600 (view score: 0) [2] Aluminum - Lay out long positions when the price falls back, and pay attention to the support level around 20300 - 20600 and the resistance level around 21500 - 22000; for London aluminum, pay attention to the support level around 2600 - 2700 and the resistance level around 2900 - 3000 (view score: 1) [2] Aluminum Alloy - Lay out long positions when the price falls back, or try to go long on the spread between electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloy with a light position in the short - term, and pay attention to the support level around 20000 - 20300 and the resistance level around 20800 - 21000 (view score: 1) [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk bauxite decreased by $0.7 per dry ton to $73.3 per dry ton compared to before the holiday. The approaching end of the rainy season in Guinea and the weakening alumina price pressured the ore price down. The operating capacity of alumina remained stable at 98.55 million tons compared to before the holiday, and the national alumina inventory increased by 105,000 tons to 3.902 million tons on a weekly basis. The newly put - into - operation alumina capacity in the first half of the year has entered a stable production state, and the alumina industry is in a high - stable production situation. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased steadily, rising by 15,000 tons to 44.454 million tons compared to before the holiday. The second - phase 100,000 - ton capacity of the Baise Yinhai technical renovation project was restored, but the increase in the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum in October was very limited. In terms of demand, the operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.5% to 62.5% compared to before the holiday. Although the double - festivals affected the downstream start - up, the peak demand season remained unchanged, and the operating rates of various downstream processing sectors would continue to rise. In terms of inventory, the accumulation of aluminum ingot social inventory during the double - festivals was within the normal level and did not exceed expectations. For recycled cast aluminum alloys, the demand recovered rapidly after the holiday, leading enterprises had full orders, and the operating rate continued to rise. Trump's signal on China - related tariffs raised market panic, causing declines in the commodity and stock markets. The short - term aluminum price may continue to be under pressure and decline, and long - position holders should pay attention to risk avoidance. However, Trump may be adding bargaining chips for the China - US leaders' APEC meeting in October, and the progress of the event and market sentiment should be monitored [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Macro Economic Indicators - The document presents data on the US Treasury yield curve (10 - year and 2 - year yields), the US dollar index, the US 10 - year inflation - adjusted yield, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB (including the on - shore and off - shore exchange rates) [7][8]. 2. Bauxite - The supply of domestic bauxite is tightening, and the prices in Shanxi and Henan are temporarily stable. Stricter safety production supervision, enhanced environmental inspections, and the rainy season have restricted bauxite mining activities. Since mid - August, after the gradual consumption of domestic ore inventory, it has become a common practice in the industry for alumina plants to increase the use of imported ores. The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk bauxite decreased by $0.7 per dry ton to $73.3 per dry ton. The large Guinea mining enterprises' long - term order quotes for the fourth quarter were slightly adjusted, with the FOB price reduced by $1 per dry ton compared to the third quarter. The sea freight is adjusted according to the oil price fluctuations, and the estimated CIF price is around $73 per dry ton [11]. 3. Alumina - As of last Friday, the built - up capacity of alumina was 114.62 million tons, unchanged from before the holiday, the operating capacity was 98.55 million tons, also unchanged from before the holiday, and the operating rate was 85.9%. The weighted price of domestic alumina spot was 2,937.7 yuan per ton, down 25.3 yuan per ton compared to before the holiday. The national alumina inventory was 3.902 million tons, an increase of 105,000 tons on a weekly basis. Newly put - into - operation capacity in Shandong, Guangxi, and other regions has entered a stable production state [15]. 4. Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the built - up capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 45.232 million tons, unchanged from before the holiday, and the operating capacity was 44.454 million tons, an increase of 15,000 tons from before the holiday. Although the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased steadily, the increase in October was expected to be very limited. On September 29, the second - phase 100,000 - ton capacity of the 200,000 - ton electrolytic aluminum energy - saving renovation project of Baise Guangtou Yinhai was successfully restored [24]. 5. Inventory - The document shows the historical data of social inventories of aluminum rods, aluminum ingots, Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum futures inventories, and LME aluminum inventories from 2021 to 2025 [30][31][32][33]. 6. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum alloy enterprises increased by 2.3% to 58.9% compared to before the holiday. Four ministries and commissions jointly issued a notice to clean up local government's illegal tax rebates. The production arrangements of recycled aluminum enterprises during the holiday were relatively stable, and most enterprises did not stop production or only had a short - term shutdown of 1 - 3 days. The market demand recovered rapidly after the holiday, leading enterprises had full orders, especially for aluminum - water - based orders. However, downstream enterprises' procurement was still cautious, mainly focusing on consuming pre - holiday inventory and replenishing stocks as needed. Policy uncertainty and raw material shortage risks still restricted the start - up of some enterprises [38]. 7. Downstream Start - up - The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises decreased by 0.5% to 62.5% compared to before the holiday. For aluminum profiles, the operating rate of leading enterprises decreased by 1% to 53.6%. The resumption of production of some enterprises in East and South China after the holiday was less than expected. In the industrial profile sector, some leading enterprises had good order arrangements for photovoltaic frames in early October; for automotive profiles, new orders remained stable. In the construction profile sector, the market demand was still weak. For aluminum strips, the operating rate of leading enterprises decreased by 1% to 68%. During the double - festivals, most leading enterprises maintained normal production. However, some enterprises producing building curtain wall panels had production line rotations or overhauls due to capital chain pressure and longer payment terms, while the demand for industrial plates such as automotive plates and battery shells was stable, and the production lines were basically operating at full capacity. For aluminum cables, the operating rate of leading enterprises decreased by 3% to 64%. Although leading enterprises maintained normal production during the holiday, most enterprises reduced their operating rates, and the restricted logistics during the double - festivals led to the backlog of finished product inventories. With the end of the holiday and the resumption of logistics, combined with the release of traditional rush - work demand in the fourth quarter, the operating rate is expected to rebound. For primary aluminum alloys, the operating rate of leading enterprises decreased by 0.4% to 58%. Some enterprises reduced their operating rates due to lower - than - expected downstream demand, and some enterprises maintained their original production rhythms due to unclear post - holiday order situations [51][55]. 8. Strategy Recommendations - Alumina: It is recommended to wait and see. - Shanghai Aluminum: Long - position holders should avoid risks. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Long - position holders should avoid risks or go long on ADC and short on AL [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Aluminum is expected to experience a weekly - level consolidation, with the price center likely to move upward. The aluminum market has entered the "traditional consumption peak season", and downstream demand is a mixed bag. The overall aluminum price still needs to break through the convergent pattern, and both the unilateral direction and volatility tend to the long - side. [3] - For alumina, attention should be paid to the spot sales pressure, and there may still be room for the price to decline. The overall price center of alumina has moved down this week, and the spot sales pressure is increasing, which may still drag down the AO futures market. [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction End: Spreads, Volume, and Open Interest - **Term Spreads**: This week, the A00 spot premium weakened, while the alumina spot premium strengthened. The average SMM A00 aluminum premium changed from 30 yuan/ton to - 20 yuan/ton, and the average SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) premium changed from - 30 yuan/ton to - 75 yuan/ton. The Shandong alumina premium to the current month changed from 67 yuan/ton to 126 yuan/ton, and the Henan alumina premium to the current month changed from 87 yuan/ton to 166 yuan/ton. [9] - **Monthly Spreads**: The near - month spread of SHFE aluminum has widened. [10] - **Open Interest**: The open interest and trading volume of the SHFE aluminum main contract decreased slightly, while the open interest of the alumina main contract increased slightly and is at a historical high, and its trading volume decreased slightly. [12] - **Open Interest - to - Inventory Ratio**: The open interest - to - inventory ratio of the SHFE aluminum main contract declined, and the open interest - to - inventory ratio of alumina continued to fall and is at a historically low level. [17] 3.2 Inventory: Bauxite, Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Processed Materials - **Bauxite**: As of August 29, the port inventory of imported bauxite increased by 90,000 tons compared with last week, and the port inventory days remained basically the same. As of August, the bauxite inventory of 43 sample enterprises across the country increased by 1.19 million tons month - on - month, and the bauxite inventory days in alumina plants remained stable. As of August 29, the weekly bauxite shipments from Guinea and Australia ports decreased, and the floating inventory also decreased. As of August 22, the bauxite out - port volume from Australia's Weipa + Gove ports increased slightly, while that from Guinea's Boffa + Kamsar ports decreased slightly, and the bauxite arrival volume decreased. [22][27][28] - **Alumina**: The national total alumina inventory continued to increase. As of Thursday (August 28), the national alumina inventory was 3.497 million tons, an increase of 74,000 tons compared with last week. The alumina inventory in plants, at electrolytic aluminum plants, and at ports increased, while the inventory in yards/platforms/in - transit decreased slightly. [36][48] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum inventory continued to increase. As of August 28, the weekly inventory of aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 31,000 tons to 610,000 tons. [49] - **Aluminum Rod**: This week, the downstream aluminum rod spot inventory and in - plant inventory showed a divergent trend, and the out - port volume decreased. [55] - **Aluminum Profiles & Plate - Foil**: As of July, the finished - product inventory ratio of SMM aluminum profiles remained basically flat, while the raw - material inventory ratio decreased significantly. The finished - product inventory ratio of SMM aluminum plate - foil decreased slightly, and the raw - material inventory ratio also decreased significantly. [57] 3.3 Production: Output, Capacity, and Capacity Utilization - **Bauxite**: In August, the domestic bauxite supply measured by the SMM caliber decreased slightly. Imported bauxite supply is still an important increment for the total domestic bauxite supply. In July, the bauxite output in Shanxi, Henan, and Guangxi measured by the Steel Union caliber increased slightly, while in August, the bauxite output in these three provinces measured by the SMM caliber decreased. [62][65] - **Alumina**: The alumina capacity utilization rate remained stable. As of August 29, the total operating capacity of alumina across the country was 94.6 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.7 million tons in the weekly operating capacity. This week, the domestic metallurgical - grade alumina output was 1.847 million tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons compared with last week, and it is still at a high level in recent years. The short - term supply - loose pattern of alumina fundamentals has not been reversed. [69] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of July, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained at a high level, and the capacity utilization rate remained high due to profit repair. As of August 21, the weekly output of electrolytic aluminum measured by the Steel Union caliber was 848,300 tons, an increase of 400 tons compared with the previous week, and the output level remained at a six - year high. With the arrival of the consumption peak season, the aluminum - water ratio showed a seasonal increase, and the ingot - casting volume of aluminum ingots was expected to decrease month - on - month, reducing the supply pressure. [73] - **Downstream Processing**: This week, the output of aluminum plate - foil increased slightly by 3,800 tons compared with last week. The output of recycled aluminum rods decreased by 1,860 tons week - on - week, while the output of aluminum rods increased by 6,000 tons week - on - week. The operating rate of leading downstream processing enterprises increased slightly. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy, aluminum profiles, and aluminum cables increased slightly, while the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy remained flat. [75][77][82] 3.4 Profit: Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Processed Materials - **Alumina**: This week, the alumina profit decreased slightly, and the profit of metallurgical - grade alumina measured by the Steel Union caliber was 390.1 yuan/ton, maintaining a good level of smelting profit. The alumina profits in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan remained stable, and the profit performance in Guangxi was better than that in other regions. [89] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum profit remained at a high level. However, the current complex global macro - economic situation, overseas geopolitical conflicts, and changing trade policies have increased uncertainty factors, interfering with market expectations. [99] - **Downstream Processing**: The processing fee of aluminum rods decreased slightly by 10 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the downstream processing profit remained at a low level. [100] 3.5 Consumption: Import Profit & Loss, Export Profit & Loss, and Apparent Demand - **Import Profit & Loss**: The import profit & loss of alumina and SHFE aluminum has widened. [108] - **Export**: In July 2025, the export of unforged aluminum and aluminum products increased slightly by 52,000 tons month - on - month. The export profit & loss of aluminum processed materials showed a divergent trend, and the export demand for aluminum products was hindered by trade policy adjustments. [110][112] - **Apparent Consumption Volume**: The transaction area of commercial housing decreased, and the monthly output of automobiles decreased month - on - month. [117]