Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View - The intraday trend of Shanghai nickel continued to fluctuate. Fundamentally, the arrival inventory from the Philippines increased, leading to a loosening of nickel ore support. News such as the low actual output of nickel ore quotas further deepened the expectation of a loose supply. The intraday transaction price of ferronickel decreased to some extent, mainly affected by weak downstream demand and cost loosening, and is currently close to the conversion spread of high - grade nickel matte. Stainless steel continued to fluctuate intraday, with no obvious improvement in fundamentals and limited room for further upward movement. The new energy link still maintains a production - based - on - sales situation. In the future, attention should be mainly paid to the game between Indonesia and the United States on tariffs, which increases the sentiment disturbance in the downstream of the nickel industry chain, and the trend of new energy tariff exemptions between the EU and Indonesia [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Nickel Forecast and Management Strategy - **Price Range Forecast**: The predicted price range of Shanghai nickel is 117,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2] - **Inventory Management**: When the product sales price falls and there is a risk of inventory depreciation, short Shanghai nickel futures according to the inventory level to lock in profits and hedge against the risk of spot price decline, with a short - selling ratio of 60% for the Shanghai nickel main contract; sell call options, with a short - selling ratio of 50% for over - the - counter/on - exchange options [2] - **Procurement Management**: When the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts according to the production plan to lock in production costs; sell put options; buy out - of - the - money call options, with the trading volume based on the procurement plan [2] Market Data - **Nickel Disk Daily**: The latest price of the Shanghai nickel main - continuous contract is 121,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 290 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume is 80,732 lots, a decrease of 21,189 lots (- 20.79%); the open interest is 59,940 lots, a decrease of 1,587 lots (- 2.58%); the warehouse receipt volume is 21,296 tons, an increase of 854 tons (4.18%); the basis of the main contract is - 1,090 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,430 yuan (- 56.8%) [5] - **Stainless Steel Disk Daily**: The latest price of the stainless steel main - continuous contract is 12,715 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume is 92,687 lots, a decrease of 63,358 lots (- 40.60%); the open interest is 66,494 lots, a decrease of 11,562 lots (- 14.81%); the warehouse receipt volume is 111,051 tons, unchanged from the previous day; the basis of the main contract is 360 yuan/ton, an increase of 155 yuan (75.61%) [6] - **Nickel Industry Inventory**: The domestic social inventory of nickel is 39,173 tons, an increase of 1,144 tons; the LME nickel inventory is 206,580 tons, an increase of 402 tons; the stainless steel social inventory is 990.8 tons, an increase of 12.8 tons; the nickel pig iron inventory is 37,534 tons, an increase of 2,924 tons [7] Market Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: The cobalt mine ban in the Congo continues; Tsingshan plans to cut stainless steel production by 250,000 tons; Indonesia shortens the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year; the tariff negotiation between Indonesia and the United States may involve the subsequent trend of the nickel industry chain [4] - **Negative Factors**: Stainless steel enters the traditional off - season of demand, and inventory reduction is slow; the contradiction in the ferronickel industry chain deepens, and the oversupply situation remains unchanged [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, nickel prices first declined and then rose, with significant macro - impacts. Spot transactions were average, and downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs. In the industrial chain, ore prices slightly declined, and freight rates may continue to rise due to insufficient shipping capacity. Ferronickel prices were weak, and the cost - line center of gravity decreased. Stainless steel exchange warehouse receipts continued to flow out, and demand remained poor as July and August are traditional off - seasons for consumption. New energy vehicle production and sales data were good, which is beneficial for nickel demand, but attention should be paid to the supply - side reform of new energy vehicles. The medium - to - long - term surplus pattern remains unchanged [6]. - The Shanghai nickel main contract is expected to operate with a slightly bearish trend, fluctuating around the 20 - day moving average. The stainless steel main contract is expected to operate with wide - range fluctuations around the 20 - day moving average [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - **Shanghai Nickel Viewpoint**: Nickel prices were affected by the macro - environment, with spot transactions being average. In the industrial chain, ore prices dropped slightly, freight rates might rise, ferronickel prices were weak, and stainless steel demand was poor. New energy vehicle data was positive for nickel demand, but the long - term surplus remained [6]. - **Operation Strategies**: The Shanghai nickel main contract will operate with a slightly bearish trend, fluctuating around the 20 - day moving average. The stainless steel main contract will operate with wide - range fluctuations around the 20 - day moving average [7][8]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Industrial Chain Weekly Price Changes - Nickel ore: The price of some grades of laterite nickel ore decreased. For example, the price of laterite nickel ore (CIF) NI1.4%, Fe30 - 35% dropped from $52 to $51, a decrease of 1.92% [11]. - Electrolytic nickel: The prices of Shanghai electrolytic nickel, Shanghai Russian nickel, and Jinchuan ex - factory price all decreased. Shanghai electrolytic nickel dropped from 124,620 yuan to 123,260 yuan, a decrease of 1.09% [12]. - Ferronickel: Low - grade ferronickel (Shandong) dropped from 3,600 yuan/ton to 3,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.78%. High - grade ferronickel (Shandong) dropped from 920 yuan/nickel point to 915 yuan/nickel point, a decrease of 0.54% [11]. - Stainless steel: The price of 304 stainless steel increased from 13,425 yuan/ton to 13,487.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.47% [12]. 3.2.2 Nickel Ore Market Conditions - Price: The price of some grades of nickel ore decreased by $1 per wet ton compared with last week, while the freight rate increased by $2 per wet ton [15]. - Inventory: On July 10, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 8.9649 million wet tons, an increase of 246,500 wet tons or 2.83% from the previous period [15]. - Import: In May 2025, nickel ore imports were 3.9272 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.0131 million tons or 34.77%, and a year - on - year decrease of 681,700 tons or 14.79% [15]. 3.2.3 Electrolytic Nickel Market Conditions - Price: Nickel prices first declined and then rose, with average transactions. The overall demand was hard to improve, and the marginal cost also decreased to some extent [20][23]. - Production: In June 2025, China's refined nickel production was 34,515 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.11% and a year - on - year increase of 30.37% [27]. - Import and Export: In May 2025, China's refined nickel imports were 17,535.551 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,076 tons or 5.78%, and a year - on - year increase of 9,631 tons or 121.85% [31]. 3.2.4 Ferronickel Market Conditions - Price: Ferronickel prices continued to decline. Low - grade ferronickel (Shandong) dropped by 100 yuan/ton, and high - grade ferronickel (Shandong) dropped by 5 yuan/nickel [41][43]. - Production: In June 2025, China's ferronickel actual production in metal terms was 23,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.87% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.35% [45]. - Import: In May 2025, China's ferronickel imports were 848,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31,000 tons or 3.8%, and a year - on - year increase of 197,000 tons or 30.2% [48]. - Inventory: In June, the negotiable inventory of ferronickel was 233,100 physical tons, equivalent to 21,000 nickel tons [51]. 3.2.5 Stainless Steel Market Conditions - Price: The price of 304 stainless steel increased. The four - location average price increased by 62.5 yuan/ton compared with last week [56][57]. - Production: In June, stainless steel crude steel production was 3.2916 million tons, with the production of the 300 - series decreasing by 2.28% month - on - month [61]. - Import and Export: The latest data shows that stainless steel imports were 125,100 tons and exports were 436,200 tons [64]. - Inventory: On July 11, the inventory in Wuxi was 62,230 tons, in Foshan was 359,400 tons, and the national inventory was 1.1675 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,700 tons [67]. 3.2.6 New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - Production and Sales: In May 2025, China's new energy vehicle production and sales were 1.27 million and 1.307 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 35% and 36.9% respectively. From January to May 2025, production and sales were 5.699 million and 5.608 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 45.2% and 44% respectively [73]. - Power Batteries: In May 2025, the total production of power and other batteries was 123.5 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 4.4% and a year - on - year increase of 47.9%. The power battery loading volume was 57.1 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 5.5% and a year - on - year increase of 43.1% [77]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, prices fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average. The position has not increased significantly. Although the MACD shows a red bar, the upward trend has slowed down. Technically, the pressure of the upper golden section line is still large, and there is minor support such as the 20 - day moving average below. A range - bound view is maintained [80]. 3.4 Industry Chain Summary, Viewpoints, and Strategies - **Fundamental Viewpoints**: The impact of different links on nickel prices varies. Nickel ore, ferronickel, and refined nickel are neutral - bearish. Stainless steel is neutral, and new energy is neutral - bullish [83]. - **Trading Strategies**: The Shanghai nickel main contract will operate with a slightly bearish trend, fluctuating around the 20 - day moving average. The stainless steel main contract will operate with wide - range fluctuations around the 20 - day moving average [85][86].

Report Information - Report Title: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: July 11, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The performance of each link in the nickel industry chain is weak. The rebound of the nickel market is only a temporary phenomenon, and it is recommended to wait and see before going long [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On the 10th, Shanghai nickel returned above the 120,000 integer mark, with the main contract rising 1.41%. The total open interest of the index decreased by 6,876 to 151,440 lots [8]. - In the off - season of demand, the spot trading of refined nickel is average. Enterprises purchase on demand, and the spot supply is sufficient. The average premium of Jinchuan nickel is 2,050 yuan/ton, and the premium - discount range of mainstream brand electrowon nickel is - 100 - 300 yuan/ton [8]. - The support from the ore end weakens, and the premium of Indonesian domestic red clay nickel ore declines. There is a risk of price decline in the follow - up, and the concern about the supply side eases [8]. - The price of high - nickel ferrochrome runs at a low level. On the 10th, the average price was 905 yuan/nickel point. The loss of ferrochrome plants intensified, and some decreased production. Although tariffs do not directly affect nickel imports and exports, the market is worried about the impact on the external demand of stainless steel terminals, so steel mills are sluggish, and the support for ferrochrome is weak [8]. - The price of nickel sulfate remained flat at 27,420. Some enterprises reduced production to support prices due to losses, but the demand for new - energy batteries is in the off - season, so the support for nickel sulfate is limited, and it is mainly weak [8]. 2. Industry News - On July 8, the Secretary - General of the Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) revealed that the actual nickel ore production in Indonesia in 2025 was only 120 million tons, far less than the approved quota of 364.1 million tons from January to June. The main reason was the impact of the rainy season in major mining areas. In the first half of the year, Indonesia still imported 4.6 million tons of nickel ore from the Philippines [9]. - Since January 2025, due to policies such as the Domestic Sales Obligation (DMO), the increase in biodiesel blending ratio, new export fees, and the Global Minimum Tax (GMT), the cost pressure of the Indonesian nickel industry has continued to rise [11]. - Bulgaria officially launched the largest operating battery energy storage system in the EU, with a capacity of 124 MW/496.2 MWh [11]. - A research team in Turkey developed a TOPCon solar cell with nickel contact and almost no silver, which significantly reduced the silver consumption while maintaining high efficiency [11]. - Renewable energy storage company Apatura obtained planning permission for a 100 - MW battery energy storage system project in Scotland, which will help the UK enhance the resilience of the power system [11].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: July 9, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - The macro atmosphere has turned weak, and uncertainty has increased, leading to a decline in risk appetite. On the 8th, Shanghai nickel continued to be weak in the non - ferrous sector under the pressure of fundamental surplus, temporarily stabilizing above 120,000. The nickel industry chain shows weak performance in all links. Be cautious about the rebound space, reduce long positions on rallies, and adopt a rolling operation strategy [8] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Macro and Market Conditions**: The macro atmosphere is weak, and risk appetite has declined. Shanghai nickel is weak in the non - ferrous sector under fundamental surplus pressure [8] - **Supply - Side Conditions**: Since the end of June, the support from the ore end has weakened, and the price of Indonesian domestic red clay nickel ore has loosened. The high - nickel iron price continued to fall, with the average price on the 8th dropping by 2.5 to 905 yuan/nickel point. Nickel iron plants' losses have intensified, and some have cut production. The steel mills are sluggish, with reduced production schedules and high inventories, and can only maintain the rigid demand for raw materials [8] - **Sulfuric Acid Nickel Situation**: Sulfuric acid nickel remained flat at 27,410. The recent rise in LME nickel prices has increased the immediate production cost of nickel salt plants. Some nickel salt plants have stopped production for maintenance due to losses, and some are holding up prices. The short - term price of sulfuric acid nickel is expected to remain stable [8] - **Operation Suggestions**: Be cautious about the rebound space of nickel, reduce long positions on rallies, and adopt a rolling operation strategy [8] Group 5: Industry News - Bulgaria officially launched the largest - scale operating battery energy storage system in the EU, with a capacity of 124 megawatts/496.2 megawatt - hours, located in the Balkan Industrial Park in the north - central city of Lovech [9] - A research team from Turkey's Odtu - Gunam Institute and Necmettin Erbakan University developed a TOPCon solar cell using nickel (Ni) contacts and almost no silver (Ag), with silver usage below 0.5 mg/watt, far lower than traditional silver - contact cells [11] - Renewable energy storage company Apatura obtained planning permission for a 100 - megawatt battery energy storage system (BESS) project near Kilwinning, North Ayrshire, Scotland [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Macro**: The Federal Reserve kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% in June, with reduced but still high uncertainty. It lowered the 2025 GDP forecast to 1.4% and raised the inflation expectation to 3%. In May, China's industrial added - value and retail sales increased by 5.8% and 6.4% respectively. The international crude oil market is re - evaluating prices due to the tense Middle - East situation [7]. - **Supply**: In 2025, the RKAB approval provides sufficient raw materials for smelters, but policy risks remain. In May, China's ferronickel production increased slightly, and Indonesia's remained high. Sulfuric acid nickel enterprises' operating rate decreased, and production in May decreased month - on - month. In May 2025, China's refined nickel production was 35,995 tons, a slight decrease [7]. - **Demand**: In May, stainless steel demand was suppressed, and domestic stainless steel inventory exceeded 1 million tons. In the new energy industry chain, the market share of ternary batteries is declining, and the production of ternary materials in May was at a low level [7]. - **Inventory**: Last week, LME and SHFE nickel inventories increased slightly, while refined nickel social inventory decreased slightly to 37,008 tons [7]. - **View**: In the short term, although the RKAB approval provides raw materials, policy risks and the increase in Indonesia's privilege use fee for nickel resources raise supply costs. The short - term improvement in macro - trade disputes has a positive impact, but the nickel price lacks strong drivers due to large stainless steel inventories and energy cost fluctuations [7]. - **Strategy**: Trade the SHFE nickel 2508 contract short - term. Sell out - of - the - money call options. Pay attention to changes in the ore end, stainless steel production, and trade disputes [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Industrial Chain Structure - The nickel industry chain includes nickel ore (laterite nickel ore, sulfide nickel ore), wet - process intermediates, ferronickel, high - grade nickel matte, sulfuric acid nickel, electrolytic nickel, and downstream products such as stainless steel, batteries, electroplating, and alloys [9]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - The report presents charts of LME nickel premium/discount (spot/3 months in USD/ton) and SHFE electrolytic nickel main contract basis (CNY/ton) [11]. 3.3. Supply Side - **Nickel Ore**: In 2024, China's imports of Philippine nickel ore decreased significantly by 21.7% to 36.5763 million tons. In 2025, imports from January to April were 911,900 tons, 1.146 million tons, 1.535 million tons, and 2.914 million tons respectively [19]. - **Nickel Pig Iron**: In 2024, Indonesia's ferronickel production was 1.5138 million nickel tons, a 5.9% increase. In May 2025, it was 157,700 tons, a slight decrease. In 2024, China's ferronickel production was 296,400 nickel tons, a 20.9% decrease. In May 2025, it was 24,000 tons, a slight increase [22]. - **Refined Nickel**: In May 2025, China's refined nickel production was 35,995 tons. In April 2025, the apparent consumption was 39,373.3 tons [29]. - **Nickel Imports and Exports**: From January to April 2025, China's nickel imports were 234,000 tons, 185,000 tons, 219,000 tons, and 186,800 tons respectively, showing a decline from high levels. Exports from January to April were 17,000 tons, 23,000 tons, 16,000 tons, and 20,300 tons respectively [32]. 3.4. Intermediates - **Wet - Process Intermediates**: In May 2025, Indonesia's MHP production was 39,300 tons, reaching a historical high [36]. - **High - Grade Nickel Matte**: In 2024, Indonesia's high - grade nickel matte production was 267,000 tons, an 8.54% increase. In April - May 2025, production was 12,000 tons and 11,700 tons respectively. There are many planned intermediate production capacities from 2025 - 2027 [41]. - **Sulfuric Acid Nickel**: In May 2025, China's sulfuric acid nickel production was 29,850 tons, a decrease. From January to April 2025, imports of nickel sulfate were 14,021.9 tons, 16,421.4 tons, 18,380 tons, and 32,604 tons respectively [45]. 3.5. Demand Side - **Stainless Steel Demand**: In 2024, the production of 43 stainless steel sample enterprises was 38.2582 million tons, a 7.43% increase. In May 2025, production was 3.4629 million tons, returning to a high level. The latest total social inventory was 1,109,090 tons, a slight increase [49]. - **Positive Electrode Material Demand**: In 2024, the production of ternary precursors was 773,100 tons, a 1.5% decrease. The market share of ternary batteries has shrunk to nearly 20%. In May 2025, the production of ternary positive electrode materials was 60,700 tons, at a low level [53]. 3.6. Inventory Side - **Social and Bonded Area Inventory**: As of June 13, 2025, the refined nickel social inventory was 37,008 tons, a decrease [56]. - **Exchange Inventory**: As of June 18, 2025, the LME nickel inventory was 204,936 tons, a slight increase. As of June 19, 2025, the SHFE inventory was 21,765 tons, a slight increase [62].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai nickel 2507 contract is expected to move in a weak and volatile manner, with support from the cost line below [2]. - The stainless steel 2507 contract is also expected to move in a weak and volatile manner [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Market - **Fundamentals**: The external nickel price fluctuates between the 5 - day and 20 - day moving averages. Last week, the nickel price continued to be weak. Rumors of increased quotas in Indonesia on Wednesday caused a rapid decline, but the cost line provided support, and downstream low - price transactions improved. The ore - end quotes remain firm, but downstream iron plants are in a loss situation with a production cut expectation, and stainless steel warehouse receipts continue to flow out. However, the good production and sales data of new energy vehicles are beneficial for nickel demand. The medium - to - long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of nickel is 122,850, and the basis is 1,600, indicating a bullish signal [2]. - **Inventory**: LME nickel inventory is 201,462 (an increase of 1,152), and the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel warehouse receipts are 22,038 (a decrease of 19), showing a bearish signal [2]. - **Market Trend**: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, suggesting a bearish trend [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing [2]. - **Price Changes**: From May 30th to June 3rd, the Shanghai nickel main contract price increased from 120,480 to 121,250; the LME nickel price decreased from 15,510 to 15,475; the SMM1 electrolytic nickel price increased from 122,325 to 122,850; the 1 Jinchuan nickel price increased from 123,525 to 124,050; the 1 imported nickel price increased from 121,175 to 121,800; and the nickel bean price increased from 120,475 to 121,050 [10]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of May 30th, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 27,075 tons, with the futures inventory at 22,057 tons (an increase of 120 tons in total inventory and a decrease of 361 tons in futures inventory). From May 30th to June 3rd, the LME nickel inventory increased from 199,380 to 201,462, the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts decreased from 22,057 to 22,038, and the total inventory increased from 221,437 to 223,500 [12][13]. Stainless Steel Market - **Fundamentals**: The spot stainless steel price has declined. There is an expectation of a short - term correction in nickel ore prices, and the cost line may loosen. The nickel - iron price is weakly stable, and the stainless steel exchange warehouse receipts continue to flow into the spot market [4]. - **Basis**: The average stainless steel price is 13,787.5, and the basis is 1,157.5, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The stainless steel futures warehouse receipts are 129,690 (a decrease of 300), showing a bearish signal [4]. - **Market Trend**: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, suggesting a bearish trend [4]. - **Price Changes**: From May 30th to June 3rd, the stainless steel main contract price decreased from 12,690 to 12,630; the cold - rolled stainless steel index in Wuxi decreased from 12,510 to 12,460; the cold - rolled 304*2B stainless steel price in Foshan decreased from 13,950 to 13,850, while prices in other regions remained unchanged [10]. - **Inventory Changes**: On May 30th, the inventory in Wuxi was 58,360 tons, in Foshan was 351,100 tons, and the national inventory was 1,099,600 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 18,100 tons). The 300 - series inventory was 669,100 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 23,900 tons). From May 30th to June 3rd, the stainless steel warehouse receipts decreased from 129,990 to 129,690 [18][19]. Nickel Ore and Nickel - Iron Prices - The price of red soil nickel ore CIF with Ni1.5% remained at 58.5 US dollars per wet ton; the price of red soil nickel ore CIF with Ni0.9% remained at 31 US dollars per wet ton. The sea freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port remained unchanged. The price of high - nickel wet ton (8 - 12) increased from 954 to 955 yuan per nickel point, and the price of low - nickel wet ton (below 2) remained at 3,450 yuan per ton [22]. Stainless Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost is 13,202 yuan, the scrap - steel production cost is 13,590 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost is 16,737 yuan [24]. Nickel Import Cost - The calculated nickel import price is 125,901 yuan per ton [27].

Report Summary 1. Report Date - The report is dated May 20, 2025 [2] 2. Research Team - The non - ferrous metals research team includes researchers Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, and Peng Jinglin [3] 3. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 4. Core Viewpoint - With the macro - atmosphere easing and basic - face news being temporarily empty, nickel prices continue to fluctuate narrowly. On the 19th, Shanghai nickel oscillated slightly weakly, closing at 123,850, down 0.67%. The overall spot premium remained stable. Fundamentally, Indonesian nickel ore prices are still strong, while Philippine ore prices declined slightly due to increased shipments and weakened demand but are overall prone to rise and hard to fall. London inventories increased again to 202,000 tons, and the inventory - building trend continued, weakening price support. Weak demand led to a slight decline in nickel sulfate prices. It is expected that nickel prices will maintain a narrow - range oscillation, and there are opportunities to go long at low levels [8] 5. Summary by Directory 5.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On the 19th, Shanghai nickel oscillated slightly weakly, closing at 123,850, down 0.67%, with the index's total open interest increasing by 5,663 to 159,001 lots. The spot premium remained stable, with Jinchuan's premium at 2,100 yuan/ton and Russian nickel's premium at 200 yuan/ton. Indonesian nickel ore prices are strong, and Philippine ore prices declined slightly. London inventories increased to 202,000 tons, and the demand for nickel sulfate was weak, causing its price to fall. It is expected that nickel prices will maintain a narrow - range oscillation [8] 5.2 Industry News - **Indonesian domestic trade ore benchmark price**: In the second half of May, HMA was $15,415/ton, up $366/ton. SMM predicted that the HPM prices of different - grade nickel ores in the second half of May would increase compared to the first half. The mainstream premium of Indonesian pyrometallurgical domestic trade ore in May was $26 - 28/wet ton, up about $2/wet ton from April, and the price of hydrometallurgical ore decreased slightly within the month [11][12] - **Talon Metals**: The company found a high - grade nickel sample in Minnesota, which is part of a $65 - million exploration plan. The proposed underground mine project faces less opposition but still needs an environmental review. The company is conducting a feasibility study and starting the approval process, planning to transport the mined ore to North Dakota for processing [12] - **Global Ferronickel Holdings, Inc. (GFNI)**: In April 2025, it first exported 56,625 wet metric tons of low - grade nickel ore to Indonesia. This year's target is to complete 91 shipments totaling 5 million WMT, with an expected shipment structure of 53% low - grade and 47% medium - grade ores. It is expected to achieve double - digit revenue growth in 2025. The 2025 capital expenditure budget is 711.8 million pesos for various projects [12] - **Ivanhoe Mining**: On May 7, 2025, its subsidiary Ivanplats achieved a major milestone by completing the first high - grade ore blasting of the Flatreef ore body. Ore will be stored on the surface for the first feeding of the concentrator in the fourth quarter [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Indonesia's PNBP policy is set to be implemented on the 26th, but its impact on cost increase is expected to be limited. The domestic trade prices of Indonesian nickel ore showed mixed trends last week, while the premium remained stable [4]. - In the stainless - steel market, the nickel - iron in the raw material segment weakened slightly, but the ferro - chrome remained strong, providing effective cost support. Production cuts were observed on the supply side, and inventory decreased significantly last week due to pre - May Day stocking. In May, stainless - steel prices are expected to fluctuate, with cost providing a bottom - line and demand acting as a constraint [4]. - In the new energy sector, the supply of MHP was tighter than expected, and there may be pressure on the demand side of nickel sulfate. In May, with the recovery of raw material supply and the weakening of stocking demand, prices may lack support [4]. - For primary nickel, the domestic social inventory continued to increase last week, indicating growing oversupply pressure. In May, the nickel ore and MHP segments are relatively strong in the short term, and over - bearish views are not advisable. However, in the long run, prices in the nickel ore, nickel - iron, and new energy industrial chains are expected to decline. If the inventory of primary nickel in China continues to increase, it will put more pressure on nickel prices [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Price - Monthly, Shanghai nickel fell 2.6%, and LME nickel fell 2.1%. The prices in the industrial chain recovered after a significant decline affected by the macro - environment. Weekly, nickel ore and nickel sulfate prices rose slightly, while nickel - iron prices fell [5][6]. 3.2 Inventory - LME inventory decreased by 120 tons to 202,470 tons last week; Shanghai nickel inventory decreased by 42 tons to 24,800 tons; social inventory increased by 701 tons to 44,661 tons; and bonded - area inventory remained at 5,800 tons [5][12]. 3.3 Supply 3.3.1 Nickel Ore - The price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with a grade of 1.2% decreased by $0.4 per wet ton to $24 per wet ton, while that of 1.6% increased by $1.5 per ton to $52.5 per ton. The premium of Indonesian nickel ore remained at $25 per wet ton, and the premium of low - grade Philippine nickel ore remained stable [4][5][18]. 3.3.2 Refined Nickel - Futures prices fluctuated within a narrow range, and the spot premium decreased slightly [5][19]. 3.3.3 Nickel Iron - The center of the nickel - iron transaction price in the market moved downward [5][24]. 3.3.4 Intermediate Products - Production in Indonesia was affected, resulting in a relatively tight short - term supply [5][27]. 3.3.5 Nickel Sulfate - Raw material prices were relatively strong, and theoretical profits turned into losses [5][33]. 3.4 Demand 3.4.1 Ternary Precursor - Weekly inventory decreased by 263 tons to 14,195 tons [4][5]. 3.4.2 Power Cells - Weekly cell production increased by 7.9% to 24.98 GWh, with lithium - iron cells increasing by 10.7% to 17.37 GWh and ternary cells increasing by 1.9% to 7.61 GWh [4][5][50]. 3.4.3 Lithium - ion Batteries and New - energy Vehicles - From April 1st to 20th, the retail volume of the national new - energy passenger vehicle market was 478,000 units, a 20% increase compared to the same period last April, a 11% decrease compared to the same period last month, with a retail penetration rate of 53.3%. The cumulative retail volume this year was 2.898 million units, a 33% increase year - on - year. The wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles by national manufacturers was 530,000 units, a 23% increase compared to the same period last April, a 7% decrease compared to the same period last month, with a wholesale penetration rate of 53.3%. The cumulative wholesale volume this year was 3.378 million units, a 39% increase year - on - year [4][5][53]. 3.5 Stainless - steel Market 3.5.1 Price - Most stainless - steel spot prices fell last month, and the spot premium increased by 50 yuan per ton to 525 yuan per ton [65][66]. 3.5.2 Inventory - Warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 11,979 tons to 168,000 tons month - on - month; the total social inventory of 89 stainless - steel warehouses in the national mainstream market decreased by 8,481 tons to 1,078,000 tons week - on - week, with the 300 - series decreasing by 21,476 tons to 701,470 tons [65][70]. 3.5.3 Supply - According to Steel Union statistics, two 300 - series steel mills reduced production to varying degrees this month, expected to affect April's output by about 40,000 tons [65]. 3.5.4 Cost and Profit - The finished - product prices were lackluster, and raw - material prices showed mixed trends [65]. 3.5.5 Consumption - According to the latest production scheduling report of three major white - goods released by Industry Online, the total scheduled production of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in May 2024 was 37.75 million units, a 15.2% increase compared to the actual production in the same period last year, and the industry continued to grow at a high speed [65][90][94]. 3.5.6 Supply - demand Balance - Production cuts reduced the pressure of inventory accumulation [65][99].