Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: July 9, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - The macro atmosphere has turned weak, and uncertainty has increased, leading to a decline in risk appetite. On the 8th, Shanghai nickel continued to be weak in the non - ferrous sector under the pressure of fundamental surplus, temporarily stabilizing above 120,000. The nickel industry chain shows weak performance in all links. Be cautious about the rebound space, reduce long positions on rallies, and adopt a rolling operation strategy [8] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Macro and Market Conditions**: The macro atmosphere is weak, and risk appetite has declined. Shanghai nickel is weak in the non - ferrous sector under fundamental surplus pressure [8] - **Supply - Side Conditions**: Since the end of June, the support from the ore end has weakened, and the price of Indonesian domestic red clay nickel ore has loosened. The high - nickel iron price continued to fall, with the average price on the 8th dropping by 2.5 to 905 yuan/nickel point. Nickel iron plants' losses have intensified, and some have cut production. The steel mills are sluggish, with reduced production schedules and high inventories, and can only maintain the rigid demand for raw materials [8] - **Sulfuric Acid Nickel Situation**: Sulfuric acid nickel remained flat at 27,410. The recent rise in LME nickel prices has increased the immediate production cost of nickel salt plants. Some nickel salt plants have stopped production for maintenance due to losses, and some are holding up prices. The short - term price of sulfuric acid nickel is expected to remain stable [8] - **Operation Suggestions**: Be cautious about the rebound space of nickel, reduce long positions on rallies, and adopt a rolling operation strategy [8] Group 5: Industry News - Bulgaria officially launched the largest - scale operating battery energy storage system in the EU, with a capacity of 124 megawatts/496.2 megawatt - hours, located in the Balkan Industrial Park in the north - central city of Lovech [9] - A research team from Turkey's Odtu - Gunam Institute and Necmettin Erbakan University developed a TOPCon solar cell using nickel (Ni) contacts and almost no silver (Ag), with silver usage below 0.5 mg/watt, far lower than traditional silver - contact cells [11] - Renewable energy storage company Apatura obtained planning permission for a 100 - megawatt battery energy storage system (BESS) project near Kilwinning, North Ayrshire, Scotland [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Macro**: The Federal Reserve kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% in June, with reduced but still high uncertainty. It lowered the 2025 GDP forecast to 1.4% and raised the inflation expectation to 3%. In May, China's industrial added - value and retail sales increased by 5.8% and 6.4% respectively. The international crude oil market is re - evaluating prices due to the tense Middle - East situation [7]. - **Supply**: In 2025, the RKAB approval provides sufficient raw materials for smelters, but policy risks remain. In May, China's ferronickel production increased slightly, and Indonesia's remained high. Sulfuric acid nickel enterprises' operating rate decreased, and production in May decreased month - on - month. In May 2025, China's refined nickel production was 35,995 tons, a slight decrease [7]. - **Demand**: In May, stainless steel demand was suppressed, and domestic stainless steel inventory exceeded 1 million tons. In the new energy industry chain, the market share of ternary batteries is declining, and the production of ternary materials in May was at a low level [7]. - **Inventory**: Last week, LME and SHFE nickel inventories increased slightly, while refined nickel social inventory decreased slightly to 37,008 tons [7]. - **View**: In the short term, although the RKAB approval provides raw materials, policy risks and the increase in Indonesia's privilege use fee for nickel resources raise supply costs. The short - term improvement in macro - trade disputes has a positive impact, but the nickel price lacks strong drivers due to large stainless steel inventories and energy cost fluctuations [7]. - **Strategy**: Trade the SHFE nickel 2508 contract short - term. Sell out - of - the - money call options. Pay attention to changes in the ore end, stainless steel production, and trade disputes [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Industrial Chain Structure - The nickel industry chain includes nickel ore (laterite nickel ore, sulfide nickel ore), wet - process intermediates, ferronickel, high - grade nickel matte, sulfuric acid nickel, electrolytic nickel, and downstream products such as stainless steel, batteries, electroplating, and alloys [9]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - The report presents charts of LME nickel premium/discount (spot/3 months in USD/ton) and SHFE electrolytic nickel main contract basis (CNY/ton) [11]. 3.3. Supply Side - **Nickel Ore**: In 2024, China's imports of Philippine nickel ore decreased significantly by 21.7% to 36.5763 million tons. In 2025, imports from January to April were 911,900 tons, 1.146 million tons, 1.535 million tons, and 2.914 million tons respectively [19]. - **Nickel Pig Iron**: In 2024, Indonesia's ferronickel production was 1.5138 million nickel tons, a 5.9% increase. In May 2025, it was 157,700 tons, a slight decrease. In 2024, China's ferronickel production was 296,400 nickel tons, a 20.9% decrease. In May 2025, it was 24,000 tons, a slight increase [22]. - **Refined Nickel**: In May 2025, China's refined nickel production was 35,995 tons. In April 2025, the apparent consumption was 39,373.3 tons [29]. - **Nickel Imports and Exports**: From January to April 2025, China's nickel imports were 234,000 tons, 185,000 tons, 219,000 tons, and 186,800 tons respectively, showing a decline from high levels. Exports from January to April were 17,000 tons, 23,000 tons, 16,000 tons, and 20,300 tons respectively [32]. 3.4. Intermediates - **Wet - Process Intermediates**: In May 2025, Indonesia's MHP production was 39,300 tons, reaching a historical high [36]. - **High - Grade Nickel Matte**: In 2024, Indonesia's high - grade nickel matte production was 267,000 tons, an 8.54% increase. In April - May 2025, production was 12,000 tons and 11,700 tons respectively. There are many planned intermediate production capacities from 2025 - 2027 [41]. - **Sulfuric Acid Nickel**: In May 2025, China's sulfuric acid nickel production was 29,850 tons, a decrease. From January to April 2025, imports of nickel sulfate were 14,021.9 tons, 16,421.4 tons, 18,380 tons, and 32,604 tons respectively [45]. 3.5. Demand Side - **Stainless Steel Demand**: In 2024, the production of 43 stainless steel sample enterprises was 38.2582 million tons, a 7.43% increase. In May 2025, production was 3.4629 million tons, returning to a high level. The latest total social inventory was 1,109,090 tons, a slight increase [49]. - **Positive Electrode Material Demand**: In 2024, the production of ternary precursors was 773,100 tons, a 1.5% decrease. The market share of ternary batteries has shrunk to nearly 20%. In May 2025, the production of ternary positive electrode materials was 60,700 tons, at a low level [53]. 3.6. Inventory Side - **Social and Bonded Area Inventory**: As of June 13, 2025, the refined nickel social inventory was 37,008 tons, a decrease [56]. - **Exchange Inventory**: As of June 18, 2025, the LME nickel inventory was 204,936 tons, a slight increase. As of June 19, 2025, the SHFE inventory was 21,765 tons, a slight increase [62].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai nickel 2507 contract is expected to move in a weak and volatile manner, with support from the cost line below [2]. - The stainless steel 2507 contract is also expected to move in a weak and volatile manner [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Market - **Fundamentals**: The external nickel price fluctuates between the 5 - day and 20 - day moving averages. Last week, the nickel price continued to be weak. Rumors of increased quotas in Indonesia on Wednesday caused a rapid decline, but the cost line provided support, and downstream low - price transactions improved. The ore - end quotes remain firm, but downstream iron plants are in a loss situation with a production cut expectation, and stainless steel warehouse receipts continue to flow out. However, the good production and sales data of new energy vehicles are beneficial for nickel demand. The medium - to - long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of nickel is 122,850, and the basis is 1,600, indicating a bullish signal [2]. - **Inventory**: LME nickel inventory is 201,462 (an increase of 1,152), and the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel warehouse receipts are 22,038 (a decrease of 19), showing a bearish signal [2]. - **Market Trend**: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, suggesting a bearish trend [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing [2]. - **Price Changes**: From May 30th to June 3rd, the Shanghai nickel main contract price increased from 120,480 to 121,250; the LME nickel price decreased from 15,510 to 15,475; the SMM1 electrolytic nickel price increased from 122,325 to 122,850; the 1 Jinchuan nickel price increased from 123,525 to 124,050; the 1 imported nickel price increased from 121,175 to 121,800; and the nickel bean price increased from 120,475 to 121,050 [10]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of May 30th, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 27,075 tons, with the futures inventory at 22,057 tons (an increase of 120 tons in total inventory and a decrease of 361 tons in futures inventory). From May 30th to June 3rd, the LME nickel inventory increased from 199,380 to 201,462, the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts decreased from 22,057 to 22,038, and the total inventory increased from 221,437 to 223,500 [12][13]. Stainless Steel Market - **Fundamentals**: The spot stainless steel price has declined. There is an expectation of a short - term correction in nickel ore prices, and the cost line may loosen. The nickel - iron price is weakly stable, and the stainless steel exchange warehouse receipts continue to flow into the spot market [4]. - **Basis**: The average stainless steel price is 13,787.5, and the basis is 1,157.5, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The stainless steel futures warehouse receipts are 129,690 (a decrease of 300), showing a bearish signal [4]. - **Market Trend**: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, suggesting a bearish trend [4]. - **Price Changes**: From May 30th to June 3rd, the stainless steel main contract price decreased from 12,690 to 12,630; the cold - rolled stainless steel index in Wuxi decreased from 12,510 to 12,460; the cold - rolled 304*2B stainless steel price in Foshan decreased from 13,950 to 13,850, while prices in other regions remained unchanged [10]. - **Inventory Changes**: On May 30th, the inventory in Wuxi was 58,360 tons, in Foshan was 351,100 tons, and the national inventory was 1,099,600 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 18,100 tons). The 300 - series inventory was 669,100 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 23,900 tons). From May 30th to June 3rd, the stainless steel warehouse receipts decreased from 129,990 to 129,690 [18][19]. Nickel Ore and Nickel - Iron Prices - The price of red soil nickel ore CIF with Ni1.5% remained at 58.5 US dollars per wet ton; the price of red soil nickel ore CIF with Ni0.9% remained at 31 US dollars per wet ton. The sea freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port remained unchanged. The price of high - nickel wet ton (8 - 12) increased from 954 to 955 yuan per nickel point, and the price of low - nickel wet ton (below 2) remained at 3,450 yuan per ton [22]. Stainless Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost is 13,202 yuan, the scrap - steel production cost is 13,590 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost is 16,737 yuan [24]. Nickel Import Cost - The calculated nickel import price is 125,901 yuan per ton [27].

行业 镍日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 20 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangpin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 镍观点： 宏观氛围缓和，基本面消息暂真空，镍价延续窄幅波动，19 日沪镍震荡略偏 弱运行，尾盘报收于 123850，下跌 0.67%，指数总持仓增加 5663 至 159001 手。 现货升贴水总体保持稳定，日内金川升水 2100 元/吨，俄镍升水报 200。基本面 上，印尼镍矿价格仍保持偏强，印尼内贸矿 5 月主流升水仍落在 26-28 美元/湿吨， 菲矿价受出货量增加以及需求削弱小幅下行，但在印尼矿价支撑下整体易涨难跌； 伦敦库存再 ...

光期研究 镍 & 不 锈 钢 月 度 策 略 报 告 2 0 2 5 年 5 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 镍&不锈钢：压力渐显 p 2 p 3 镍&不锈钢：压力渐显 总 结 1、供给：周度印尼红土镍矿1.2%下跌0.4美元/湿吨至24美元/湿吨，1.6%上涨1.5美元/吨至52.5美元/湿吨；印尼镍矿升贴水维持25美元/湿吨，菲律宾镍矿低品位矿升水 维持。一级镍，期货价格窄幅震荡，现货升水小幅下降。镍铁市场镍铁成交价格重心下移。中间品受到印尼生产受阻影响，短期供应相对偏紧，硫酸镍原料价格相对 较强，理论利润转向亏损。 2、需求：不锈钢方面，成品价格不温不火，原料价格涨跌分化；供应端，据钢联统计，本月有两家300系钢厂已进行不同程度的减产，预计影响4月产量共4万吨左右； 库存端，仓单库存环比减少11979吨至16.8万吨；全国主流市场不锈钢89仓库口径社会总库存周环比减少8481吨至107.8万吨，其中300系环比减少21476吨至701470吨； 消费端，据产业在线最新发布的三大白电排产报告显示，2024年 ...