高库存制约镍价反弹力度 研究员：陈婧 FRM 期货从业证号：F03107034 投资咨询资格证号：Z0018401 目录 第一章 价差追踪与库存 4 第二章 基本面分析 8 GALAXY FUTURES 1 镍交易逻辑及策略 综合分析 交易逻辑及策略 GALAXY FUTURES 2 宏观方面：美国9月非农就业人数超预期，但失业率升至4.4%，12月降息预期不明朗。中国经济缺乏亮点， 仍受房地产市场拖累，股市近期大幅下挫，市场等待政策助力。 产业方面：本次镍价下跌前，由于纯镍与硫酸镍价差扩大，已有部分电积镍产线转产硫酸镍。镍价跌至成 本附近引发进一步减产，预计11-12月纯镍产量显著下降。生产商惜售挺价，现货普遍升水，金川镍升水已 经从2000翻倍至4000以上。不过需求端也进入淡季，电镀及合金消费环比下降，不锈钢和三元正极排产也 环比走弱。供需双弱下，关注进口镍能否有增量弥补。国内库存本周减少，LME库存小幅增加，国内外合 计累库速度放缓。 期货层面：沪镍持仓达到30万手，创出2021年以来的新低。伦镍跟随沪镍下跌，尚未达到4月低点。周五 传闻印尼某MHP厂生产干扰影响6000金吨产量，或将进一步影响纯镍和 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The nickel market is expected to be under pressure and move weakly in a fluctuating manner. The price may test the previous low support. For nickel trading, the strategy is to sell on rebounds in the unilateral market and sell out - of - the - money call options at the resistance level in the options market. For stainless steel, it is also expected to move weakly in a fluctuating manner, with the strategy of selling on rebounds in the unilateral market and taking a wait - and - see approach in the arbitrage market [5][6][9]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Chapter 1: Spread Tracking and Inventory - **Nickel Inventory**: Global visible nickel inventory is at a high level. LME inventory is 250,000 tons, with a small increase of 1,002 tons this week. SHFE inventory is 37,000 tons, and domestic delivery volume has increased. SMM's six - region social inventory is 49,000 tons, with a small increase of 1,029 tons month - on - month [12][13]. - **Stainless Steel Inventory**: Stainless steel social inventory continues to decline. The destocking speed has slowed down, and the price is under pressure [9][18]. Chapter 2: Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Refined Nickel Supply and Demand - **Supply**: SMM statistics show that the cumulative refined nickel output from January to October increased by 23% year - on - year to 335,500 tons. It is expected that the total domestic refined nickel output in November will remain at a high level of 35,200 tons, a slight decrease of 700 tons month - on - month. From January to September 2025, the net import of domestic refined nickel was 51,100 tons, compared with a net export of 19,700 tons in the same period last year. The supply of domestic refined nickel from January to September 2025 was 351,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 58.3% [25]. - **Demand**: The consumption of electroplating and alloy with refined nickel is stable. The cumulative pure nickel consumption from January to October increased by 2% year - on - year to 243,000 tons. The nickel consumption for electroplating increased month - on - month in line with the peak - season characteristics, but the off - season will also be obvious. SMM research shows that the downstream demand for nickel in October fell below the 50 boom - bust line, with all sub - items below 50 [26][29]. 2.2 Stainless Steel Raw Materials and Supply - Demand - **Raw Materials** - **Nickel Ore**: Due to the rainy season and typhoons in the Philippines, nickel mines have a strong willingness to hold prices. However, the overall high - nickel iron market is weak, and the ability to absorb nickel ore is limited, resulting in a situation of weak supply and demand. The domestic trade premium in Indonesia remained flat, and the first - round domestic trade benchmark price in November decreased slightly month - on - month, with the full price remaining stable [31]. - **NPI**: The supply of NPI has increased, and the price is under pressure. The profit margin of Chinese NPI has shown certain fluctuations [32][33]. - **Chromium Series**: Chromium ore prices have been continuously weakening. The long - term contract purchase price of high - carbon ferrochrome by Tsingshan Group in November 2025 was 8,495 yuan/50 base tons (cash - inclusive delivered - to - factory price), a month - on - month increase of 200 yuan [39][40]. - **Cold - Rolled Cost**: There is a cost inversion in cold - rolled stainless steel. The estimated cold - rolled cash cost is about 13,250 yuan/ton, and the integrated cost reaches 12,750 yuan/ton [42]. - **Supply**: It is estimated that the output of Chinese and Indian stainless - steel crude steel from January to September was 33.45 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5%. In October, the output of both China and India increased month - on - month, but there may be production cuts due to cost inversion. From January to September 2025, China's total stainless - steel imports were 1.138 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21%. The total exports were 3.783 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2%. The net export volume was 2.645 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16% [52]. - **Demand**: The output of shipbuilding plates from January to September increased by 28% year - on - year, while the growth rates of other terminal fields are not optimistic [54]. 2.3 New Energy - Related Markets - **New Energy Vehicles** - **Domestic Market**: In September, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 1.604 million, a year - on - year increase of 24.6%, and the penetration rate reached 49.7%. From January to September, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 11.228 million, a year - on - year increase of 34.9%. From October 1st to 31st, the retail sales of the new energy passenger - vehicle market were 1.4 million, a year - on - year increase of 17% and a month - on - month increase of 8%. The cumulative retail sales this year reached 10.27 million, a year - on - year increase of 23%. The production of power cells followed the trend of new energy vehicle sales, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 44.5% to 985.5 GWh from January to October, and a month - on - month increase of 0.2% in November [60]. - **Global Market**: From January to September 2025, the cumulative sales volume of global new energy vehicles increased by 23.5% year - on - year to 14.479 million. The cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles in Europe increased by 28.5% year - on - year to 2.746 million. The cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles in the United States increased by 11.4% year - on - year to 1.232 million. China's cumulative exports of new energy vehicles from January to September 2025 were 1.727 million, a year - on - year increase of 86% [65]. - **Nickel Sulfate Market**: The cumulative output of nickel sulfate in China from January to October decreased by 9.9% year - on - year to 282,000 tons. The cumulative output of ternary precursors from January to October decreased by 15% year - on - year to 595,000 tons. The cumulative output of ternary cathode materials from January to October increased by 15% year - on - year to 654,000 tons. During the peak production season of power batteries from September to October, the ternary materials increased month - on - month, but due to the sharp increase in cobalt prices affected by export restrictions in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the growth of precursor output was less than expected [67]. - **Nickel Sulfate Raw Materials**: The cumulative output of Indonesian MHP from January to October increased by 50% year - on - year to 366,000 tons. The output of Indonesian high - grade nickel matte from January to October decreased by 31% year - on - year to 160,000 tons. The cost of MHP has increased, and the price has remained firm. The good demand for nickel sulfate has boosted the price of intermediate products and stimulated the recovery of production [73]. 2.4 Pure Nickel Import and Supply - Demand Balance The large increase in pure nickel imports has led to an obvious domestic surplus [74].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rebound of nickel prices is driven by the general rise in commodities. The overall nickel market shows an oversupply situation in the current and next years. The nickel price is expected to continue to move within a range, and the stainless - steel price has limited upward space due to weak demand expectations [4][5][6]. - The new energy vehicle market shows structural growth, with the US electrification process slowing down and European subsidies stimulating sales. The ternary material in the nickel sulfate market is growing, but the precursor supply is tight [61][66][68]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1价差追踪与库存 - Global nickel inventory is at a high level. The global visible inventory reaches 300,000 tons, with LME inventory at 250,000 tons remaining basically flat this week, SHFE inventory at 36,000 tons with an increase in domestic delivery volume, and SMM's six - location social inventory at 48,800 tons with a slight increase [14]. - Stainless - steel social inventory is at a low level and remains flat [19]. 3.2基本面分析 3.2.1镍 - **Supply**: SMM statistics show that the cumulative refined nickel production from January to September increased by 24% year - on - year to 3 million tons. It is expected that the total domestic refined nickel production in October will remain high at 36,300 tons, a slight decrease of 200 tons month - on - month. From January to August 2025, the net import of domestic refined nickel was 36,800 tons, compared with a net export of 15,000 tons in the same period last year. The domestic refined nickel supply from January to August 2025 was 3 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 55% [27]. - **Demand**: The cumulative pure nickel consumption from January to September increased by 1% year - on - year to 2.16 million tons. SMM research shows that the downstream demand for nickel decreased slightly month - on - month in September but remained above the boom - bust line, mainly relying on the stainless - steel PMI remaining at 50. The stainless - steel consumption in October fell short of expectations, which may affect the overall nickel consumption [30]. - **Trading Logic and Strategy**: The supply of pure nickel is abundant, and the demand is weak, limiting the upward space. The nickel ore price is stable, providing cost support. The LME nickel inventory increased slightly this week, remaining above 250,000 tons. The macro sentiment remains neutral, and the power to drive nickel out of the shock range is insufficient. The nickel price will continue to move within the range. For single - side trading, it is expected to be in a wide - range shock; for options, sell the wide - straddle option combination [6]. 3.2.2不锈钢 - **Raw Materials** - **Nickel Ore**: The domestic nickel ore port inventory has peaked and declined due to the start of the rainy season in the Philippines. The Indonesian domestic trade premium remains stable, and the second - round benchmark price in October was slightly raised, with the full price remaining firm [32]. - **NPI**: The supply of NPI increases, and the price is under pressure. The production of NPI in China and Indonesia from January to September shows an increasing trend, and the high - nickel iron price is under pressure due to factors such as market supply and demand [33]. - **Chromium Series**: The chromium ore price has been weakening for two consecutive weeks. The long - term contract procurement price of high - carbon ferrochrome by Tsingshan Group in October 2025 increased by 200 yuan month - on - month [39]. - **Cold - Rolled Cost**: There is a cost inversion in cold - rolled stainless steel. The cost of cold - rolled stainless steel remains high, while the market price is relatively low, resulting in cost inversion [44]. - **Supply**: It is expected that the combined stainless - steel crude steel production of China and India from January to September was 33.45 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5%. In October, the production in both countries increased month - on - month, but there may be production cuts due to cost inversion. From January to September 2025, China's total stainless - steel imports were 1.138 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21%, and the total exports were 3.783 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2%. The net export volume was 2.645 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16% [52]. - **Demand**: The shipbuilding industry has the highest growth rate, providing support for stainless - steel demand. The production of shipbuilding plates from January to September increased by 28% year - on - year, while the growth rates in other terminal fields are not optimistic [54]. - **Trading Logic and Strategy**: For arbitrage, temporarily wait and see. For single - side trading, sell on rebounds and pay attention to the pressure at the 13,000 level [9][10]. 3.2.3新能源汽车 - **Domestic Market**: According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in September was 1.604 million, a year - on - year increase of 24.6%, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 49.7%. From January to September, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 11.228 million, a year - on - year increase of 34.9%. The production of power cells follows the trend of new energy vehicle sales, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 45.6% to 861.04 GWh from January to September, and a month - on - month increase of 9.1% in October [61]. - **International Market**: CleanTechnica statistics show that the cumulative sales volume of global new energy vehicles from January to August 2025 increased by 23.5% year - on - year to 12.371 million. The cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles in Europe from January to August 2025 increased by 27.4% year - on - year to 2.347 million, while the cumulative sales volume in the US from January to August 2025 increased by 8.1% year - on - year to 1.063 million. The US cancelled the IRA new energy vehicle subsidy on October 1, resulting in a small peak in sales in advance. Most European countries still have subsidies for new energy vehicles, stimulating sales growth this year. China's cumulative new energy vehicle exports from January to September 2025 were 1.727 million, a year - on - year increase of 86% [66]. 3.2.4硫酸镍 - **Market**: The cumulative production of nickel sulfate in China from January to September decreased by 13.6% year - on - year to 246,000 tons. The cumulative production of ternary precursors from January to September decreased by 13% year - on - year to 540,000 tons, while the cumulative production of ternary cathode materials from January to September increased by 12% year - on - year to 569,000 tons. During the peak production season of power batteries from September to October, the ternary materials increased month - on - month, but the growth of precursor production was less than expected due to the sharp increase in cobalt prices [68]. - **Raw Materials**: The production of Indonesian MHP from January to September increased by 53% year - on - year to 325,000 tons, while the production of Indonesian high - grade nickel matte from January to September decreased by 34% year - on - year to 138,000 tons. This year, the sulfur price has risen significantly, increasing the cost of hydrometallurgy, and the MHP cost has increased, with the price remaining firm [72]. 3.2.5纯镍 - The large increase in pure nickel imports leads to an obvious domestic surplus situation [73].

Report Title - Acceleration of Inventory Accumulation, Nickel Prices Under Pressure [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The nickel market is expected to remain in a state of high surplus in the next two years, with increasing global nickel inventories and a difficult - to - reverse supply - demand surplus pattern. Nickel prices are predicted to experience wide - range fluctuations with a downward - shifting center of gravity, testing cost support. Stainless steel may maintain a weak and volatile pattern [5][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Spread Tracking and Inventory 1.1 Nickel - Global Nickel Inventory Rapidly Accumulating - Global visible nickel inventory reaches 300,000 tons, with LME inventory at 250,000 tons (an increase of 13,000 tons this week), SHFE inventory at 34,000 tons, and SMM's six - region social inventory at 48,000 tons (with a slight increase) [13]. 1.2 Stainless Steel - Social Inventory Slightly Increasing After the Holiday - Social inventory increased during the National Day holiday and continued to rise slightly after the holiday, indicating weak current demand [11][18]. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Nickel 2.1.1 Supply: High - level Supply of Refined Nickel in China and India - SMM statistics show that the cumulative output of refined nickel from January to September increased by 24% year - on - year to 300,000 tons. The total domestic refined nickel output in October is expected to remain high at 36,300 tons, a slight decrease of 200 tons from the previous month. From January to August 2025, the net import of domestic refined nickel was 36,800 tons, compared with a net export of 15,000 tons in the same period last year. The supply of domestic refined nickel from January to August 2025 was 300,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 55% [26]. 2.1.2 Demand: Stable Consumption of Electroplating and Alloys - The cumulative consumption of pure nickel for batteries from January to September increased by 1% year - on - year to 216,000 tons. SMM research shows that the downstream demand for nickel decreased slightly in September but remained above the boom - bust line, mainly supported by the stainless - steel PMI at 50. The stainless - steel consumption in October fell short of expectations, which may affect the overall nickel consumption [29]. 2.2 Stainless Steel 2.2.1 Raw Materials - Nickel Ore Prices Stable with an Upward Bias - The FOB price of nickel ore is expected to rise due to the approaching rainy season in the Surigao region of the Philippines and reduced overall market supply. However, price increases are difficult due to the weak nickel - iron market. In Indonesia's domestic trade, the second - round benchmark price of domestic nickel ore in October increased month - on - month, and the premium rose slightly to +$25 - 26 [31]. 2.2.2 Raw Materials - Stable NPI Prices - The prices of high - nickel iron and NPI remained stable. The production of NPI in China and Indonesia from January to September showed certain trends, and the inventory of NPI in China also had corresponding changes [33][34][36]. 2.2.3 Raw Materials - Stable Chromium - based Prices - Chromium ore prices remained stable. The long - term purchase price of high - carbon ferrochrome by Tsingshan Group in October 2025 increased month - on - month. The estimated cold - rolling cash cost is around $13,500 per ton, and the integrated cost reaches $13,000 per ton [38][40]. 2.2.4 Raw Materials - Cold - rolling Cost Inversion - On October 17, the prices of various stainless - steel raw materials showed certain changes compared with the previous days, and the cold - rolling cost was in an inverted state [42]. 2.2.5 Supply - Increased Stainless - steel Mill Production Scheduling in October - It is estimated that the output of stainless - steel crude steel in China and India from January to September was 3.345 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5%. In October, the output in both countries increased month - on - month, but production cuts may occur due to cost inversion. From January to August 2025, China's stainless - steel imports decreased by 23% year - on - year, exports increased by 3% year - on - year, and the net export volume increased by 21% year - on - year [51]. 2.2.6 Demand - Shipbuilding Growth Provides Support - The cumulative year - on - year growth of shipbuilding plate output from January to August reached 29%, while the growth rates of other terminal fields were not optimistic [53]. 2.3 New Energy Vehicles 2.3.1 Domestic Sales with Seasonal Month - on - Month Growth - In September, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles reached 1.617 million and 1.604 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 23.7% and 24.6% respectively. The retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in September were 1.296 million, a year - on - year increase of 15.5% and a month - on - month increase of 16.2%. The cumulative retail sales from January to September were 8.866 million, a year - on - year increase of 24.4%. The cumulative year - on - year growth of power battery cell production from January to September was 45.6% to 86.104 GWh [60]. 2.3.2 Slowed Electrification Process in Europe and the United States - From January to August 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth of global new - energy vehicle sales was 23.5% to 12.371 million, the cumulative year - on - year growth of European new - energy vehicle sales was 27.4% to 2.347 million, and the cumulative year - on - year growth of US new - energy vehicle sales was 8.1% to 1.063 million. From January to September 2025, China's new - energy vehicle exports were 1.727 million, a year - on - year increase of 86% [65]. 2.3.3 Nickel Sulfate Market - Growth of Ternary Materials and Tight Precursor Supply - From January to September, the cumulative year - on - year production of nickel sulfate in China decreased by 13.6% to 246,000 tons, the cumulative year - on - year production of ternary precursors decreased by 13% to 540,000 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year production of ternary cathode materials increased by 12% to 569,000 tons. During the peak production season of power batteries from September to October, the ternary materials increased month - on - month, but the growth of precursor production was less than expected [67]. 2.3.4 Nickel Sulfate Raw Materials - Recovery Growth of Intermediate Product Output - From January to September, the cumulative year - on - year production of MHP in Indonesia increased by 53% to 325,000 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year production of high - grade nickel matte decreased by 34% to 138,000 tons. The cost of MHP increased, and the price remained firm [71]. 2.4 Large Increase in Pure Nickel Imports, Obvious Domestic Surplus - The supply - demand balance of primary nickel and pure nickel in China shows an obvious surplus situation [72]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Nickel market: The expectation of nickel surplus persists, with general spot trading. Downstream demand has increased slightly overall due to the rise in stainless - steel production in August. The supply side has also seen a slight increase month - on - month, resulting in a slow increase in inventory. Nickel prices are expected to remain in a volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to changes in the macro - situation [6]. - Stainless - steel market: The global economic outlook and tariff policy changes still affect the external demand for stainless steel, and the Fed's decisions also influence the macro - atmosphere. Stainless - steel prices lack upward demand drivers but are supported by costs at the bottom, so they are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Chapter 1: Spread Tracking and Inventory 3.1.1 Nickel - Global Nickel Inventory Slow Accumulation - Global visible inventory stands at 258,000 tons, including 211,000 tons in LME inventory, 27,000 tons in SHFE inventory, and 41,000 tons in SMM's six - location social inventory [11]. 3.1.2 Stainless Steel - Social Inventory Reduction - Steel mills have fine - tuned the arrival volume of goods in the spot market, with limited new supplies. Social inventory has decreased for five consecutive weeks. Some steel mills that had centralized maintenance in August have announced复产 plans [8]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Nickel Supply and Demand - **Supply**: From January to July, the cumulative production of refined nickel increased by 40% year - on - year to 229,000 tons. It is expected that the total domestic refined nickel production in August will be 32,500 tons, a slight increase of 1% month - on - month. In the first six months of 2025, the net import of domestic refined nickel was 5,093 tons, compared with a net export of 922 tons in the same period last year [23]. - **Demand**: From January to July, the cumulative consumption of pure nickel increased by 3% year - on - year to 170,000 tons. In July, the downstream demand for nickel improved, and the PMI of the nickel downstream industry returned to the 50 boom - bust line, mainly driven by the recovery of stainless steel. The demand for electroplating and alloys remained stable, while that for batteries declined slightly [27]. 3.2.2 Stainless - Steel Raw Materials - **Nickel Ore**: The price of nickel ore has stabilized. The rainy season is approaching in the Philippines, and nickel mines are showing a strong price - holding sentiment. Some mines have reported higher FOB prices for September shipments. In Indonesia, the premium for domestic nickel ore in August remained at HPM + 24 (excluding rewards) [29]. - **NPI**: The NPI price has rebounded following the stainless - steel market. The latest transaction price of NPI has risen above 950 yuan per nickel point, and the raw material side is relatively strong [8]. - **Chromium Series**: Chromium ore prices have remained stable for a long time. In August 2025, Tsingshan Group's long - term contract purchase price for high - carbon ferrochrome was 7,995 yuan per 50 - base ton (cash - inclusive delivered - to - factory price), a decrease of 100 yuan per 50 - base ton compared with July [36]. - **Cold - Rolled Cost**: The cold - rolled cost has increased. Taking high - nickel iron at 950 yuan per nickel point and high - carbon ferrochrome at 8,150 yuan per 50 - base ton as an example, the estimated cold - rolled cash cost is around 13,300 yuan per ton [39]. 3.2.3 Stainless - Steel Supply and Demand - **Supply**: From January to July, the combined stainless - steel crude steel production in China and India was 25.86 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. In August, production in Indonesia resumed, and domestic production remained basically flat. The planned production increased by 30,000 tons compared with July and remained at a high level [47]. - **Demand**: The production plan of white - goods has declined, while the shipbuilding industry provides support. In the first six months of 2025, China's stainless - steel import volume was 827,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25%, and the export volume was 2.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. The net export volume was 1.673 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 33% [47]. 3.2.4 New Energy Vehicles - **Domestic Sales**: From January to July, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 6.968 million and 6.937 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 41.4% and 40.3%. The retail sales of new energy vehicles from August 1 - 10 were 262,000, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 6%. The penetration rate of new energy vehicle retail sales was 57.9% [56]. - **Overseas Market**: From January to June 2025, global new energy vehicle sales increased by 30.8% year - on - year to 9.55 million. In the US, sales increased by 0.6% year - on - year to 828,000, and in Europe, sales increased by 22.4% year - on - year to 1.756 million. China's new energy vehicle exports from January to July increased by 81% year - on - year to 1.281 million [60]. 3.2.5 Sulfuric Acid Nickel Market - **Production**: From January to July, China's sulfuric acid nickel production decreased by 17.4% year - on - year to 182,000 tons. The production of ternary precursors decreased by 3% year - on - year to 462,000 tons, and the production of ternary cathode materials increased by 8% year - on - year to 420,000 tons [62]. - **Raw Materials**: From January to July, Indonesia's MHP production increased by 57% year - on - year to 243,000 tons, while high - grade nickel matte production decreased by 39% year - on - year to 98,000 tons [64]. 3.2.6 Supply - Demand Balance - In July, the shortage of primary nickel narrowed, while pure nickel remained in surplus [65].

Group 1 - Stainless steel futures prices experienced a peak and subsequent decline, reaching a high of 13,280 CNY/ton before closing at 13,010 CNY/ton, a decrease of 270 CNY/ton or 2.03% [1] - Nickel prices also saw a similar trend, closing at 120,600 CNY/ton, down 2,510 CNY/ton or 2.04% from the peak [1] Group 2 - The 304 market prices initially rose and then fell, with the mainstream price for cold-rolled 304 in Wuxi reported at 12,800 CNY/ton, an increase of 100 CNY/ton from the previous week [3] - Hot-rolled prices for 304 reached 12,550 CNY/ton, up 50 CNY/ton from the previous week [3] - Steel mills raised their quotes at the beginning of the week, leading to a strong willingness among agents to maintain high prices due to low inventory and strong demand [3] - The supply of materials significantly decreased during the week, with notable declines from major suppliers, alleviating supply pressure [3] Group 3 - Overall market prices are fluctuating, influenced by policy changes and downstream demand for low-priced goods [4] - Steel mills are reducing production, which has eased supply pressure and improved the supply-demand balance [4] - The trillion-dollar infrastructure investment is boosting sentiment across related industries, while ongoing policy changes and international tariff issues are intensifying market volatility [4] - Short-term price movements for 304 cold and hot-rolled products are expected to follow market fluctuations, with a focus on transaction volumes and inventory levels [4]

Report Information - Report Title: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: August 1, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Core Viewpoint - On the 31st, black - series commodities tumbled, and Shanghai nickel showed weakness, closing below the 120,000 mark again. The main contract 2509 closed down 1.79% at 119,830, with the total open interest of the index increasing by 11,234 to 190,329 lots. The nickel surplus pattern remains unchanged, and prices declined again after the cooling of macro - sentiment. The overall surplus pattern of nickel is still significant, and the nickel price is temporarily regarded as weak [8]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - **Market Performance**: On the 31st, black - series commodities fell generally, and Shanghai nickel was weak. The main 2509 contract closed down 1.79% at 119,830, and the total open interest of the index increased by 11,234 to 190,329 lots [8]. - **Supply - side Situation**: There are expectations of loose supply from the mining ends in the Philippines and Indonesia, and the probability of subsequent decline in ore prices is high. Under the pressure of losses, some production lines in Indonesia have switched to producing high - grade nickel matte, driving a slight recovery in the low - level nickel - iron price. On the 31st, the average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel iron was reported at 912.5 yuan per nickel point, but the acceptance of high - price nickel ore remains low [8]. - **Demand - side Situation**: The stainless - steel market is still weak, in the traditional off - season of consumption with high inventory. As the nickel - iron price rises, some downstream enterprises prefer to purchase scrap stainless steel for production, and the acceptance of high - nickel pig iron prices is also poor. The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate remained flat at 27,370 yuan per ton on the 31st, and it stopped falling and rebounded in the short term supported by the rigid replenishment demand of precursors and the low inventory of nickel salt plants [8]. 2. Industry News - **Indonesian Investment**: Indonesia's national investment management agency Danantara is exploring investment opportunities in the nickel downstream industry. It is considering acquiring the PT Gunbuster Nickel Industry (GNI) smelter. Danantara expects to prepare an investment plan of over $20 billion and provide about $60 million in medium - term financing through a syndicated loan [9][10]. - **Battery Energy Storage**: Bulgaria officially launched the largest - scale operating battery energy storage system in the EU, with a capacity of 124 megawatts/496.2 megawatt - hours. Renewable energy storage company Apatura has obtained planning permission for a 100 - megawatt battery energy storage system (BESS) project in Scotland, and its approved total energy storage capacity has exceeded 1.6 gigawatts [10]. - **Solar Cell Innovation**: A research team in Turkey developed a TOPCon solar cell using nickel (Ni) contacts with almost no silver (Ag), achieving nearly the same efficiency while significantly reducing silver usage, which is expected to reduce production costs and improve sustainability and scalability [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The "anti-involution" policy aims to repair corporate profits and reverse deflation expectations. Stainless steel and nickel prices have rebounded, but high stainless steel inventories and limited supply contraction restrict price increases. The nickel-iron price may be under continuous pressure, and the nickel price lacks support for a rebound. The price of the entire industry chain is expected to decline further [2][12][14]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stainless Steel Price - Stainless steel prices have a profit repair expectation due to the long - term negative profit margin. As of July 25, 2025, the profit margin of domestic self - produced high - nickel iron enterprises producing 304 stainless steel dropped to - 6.02%. However, high inventory and high production strategies limit price increase elasticity. As of July 17, 2025, the national mainstream market stainless steel 89 - warehouse social total inventory was 1148000 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.69%. In July, the expected production reduction of 43 stainless steel plants was limited, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.2% [5][6]. - In the long run, the weak demand side is the core reason for the low stainless steel price. Even if the supply side takes action, prices can only stop falling, not rise, until downstream demand significantly recovers [6]. Nickel - Iron and Nickel Price - The nickel - iron price may be under continuous pressure. Based on the weak stainless steel price forecast, the demand for nickel - iron is expected to have limited recovery, and the cost support for nickel - iron will weaken as the nickel ore supply is expected to loosen. The 2025 RKAB approved quota for Indonesian nickel ore is 364 million tons [12]. - The nickel price lacks support for a rebound. The short - term market price is still anchored to the RKEF conversion cost. The high premium of refined nickel over nickel - iron may lead to some production lines switching from nickel - iron to high - grade nickel matte, increasing the potential supply of refined nickel and dragging down the nickel price [12]. Summary - Affected by the "anti - involution" action, nickel and stainless steel prices have rebounded, but the high stainless steel inventory and limited supply contraction make it difficult to reverse the oversupply situation. The ore price is expected to continue to decline, driving down the price center of the industrial chain. Attention should be paid to stainless steel production reduction and demand - stimulating policies [14].

Group 1: Nickel Market Analysis - On July 21, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2508 opened at 120,300 yuan/ton and closed at 122,550 yuan/ton, a change of 1.91% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 134,799 lots, and the open interest was 41,520 lots [1]. - The main contract of Shanghai nickel opened slightly lower at night, then rose rapidly and oscillated horizontally. During the day session, it oscillated upwards, slightly declined in the afternoon, and closed with a large positive line. The trading volume increased significantly compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest also increased [2]. - The spot market saw an upward adjustment in the morning quotes of Jinchuan nickel by about 1,400 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the quotes of mainstream brands in the market also increased accordingly. The nickel price on the futures market rose strongly, but the demand did not show obvious growth. The premium remained stable, and downstream enterprises mainly purchased on demand. The spot trading was average [2]. - The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 22,111 (551.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 207,876 (300) tons [2]. Group 2: Nickel Strategy - Although the fundamentals of nickel have not improved, the nickel price has been falling for a long time. Recently, the market's macro - sentiment has changed, creating a situation of weak reality and strong expectation. It is expected that the nickel price will test the upper pressure in the near future [3]. - The strategy for nickel is to be cautiously bullish on the single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Group 3: Stainless Steel Market Analysis - On July 21, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2509 opened at 12,735 yuan/ton and closed at 12,905 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 255,058 lots, and the open interest was 122,622 lots [3]. - The main contract of stainless steel opened slightly higher at night, rose rapidly, and then declined slightly in the second half of the night. During the day session, it rose rapidly to a new high and then oscillated horizontally, closing with a large positive line. The trading volume increased significantly compared with the previous trading day, and the open interest also increased [3]. - In the Philippines, nickel ore resources will be sold successively in August, and a mine has offered a quote of 1.3% FOB 31, which is lower than the previous period. In Indonesia, the shortage of nickel ore supply has been alleviated due to the production cuts of smelters in local industrial parks. Currently, the nickel ore supply is in a relatively loose pattern, and the domestic trade benchmark price in July (Phase II) has decreased by 0.03 - 0.05 US dollars, basically flat compared with the previous period [3]. - There are obvious price differences in domestic trade premiums, with transactions ranging from +23 to +28, but +24 is still the mainstream premium. Some nickel - iron production lines in Indonesia have switched to producing nickel ice, and some small smelters have cut production. Some domestic smelters have also stopped production [4]. - According to Mysteel's research, the ex - factory price of high - nickel iron in China has remained stable at 900 - 905 yuan/nickel. In the spot market, steel mills raised prices at the opening, driving most spot prices up, and the market inquiry atmosphere has improved. The stainless steel price in Wuxi market is 12,900 yuan/ton, and that in Foshan market is 12,900 yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B is 55 to 255 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron has changed by 1.50 yuan/nickel point to 901.5 yuan/nickel point [4]. Group 4: Stainless Steel Strategy - Although the fundamentals of stainless steel have not changed significantly, the stainless steel price has been falling for a long time. Recently, the market's macro - sentiment has changed, creating a situation of weak reality and strong expectation. It is expected that stainless steel will test the upper pressure in the near future [4]. - The strategy for stainless steel is neutral on the single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4].

Report Information - Report Title: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: July 11, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non-ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The performance of each link in the nickel industry chain is weak. The rebound of the nickel market is only a temporary phenomenon, and it is recommended to wait and see before going long [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On the 10th, Shanghai nickel returned above the 120,000 integer mark, with the main contract rising 1.41%. The total open interest of the index decreased by 6,876 to 151,440 lots [8]. - In the off - season of demand, the spot trading of refined nickel is average. Enterprises purchase on demand, and the spot supply is sufficient. The average premium of Jinchuan nickel is 2,050 yuan/ton, and the premium - discount range of mainstream brand electrowon nickel is - 100 - 300 yuan/ton [8]. - The support from the ore end weakens, and the premium of Indonesian domestic red clay nickel ore declines. There is a risk of price decline in the follow - up, and the concern about the supply side eases [8]. - The price of high - nickel ferrochrome runs at a low level. On the 10th, the average price was 905 yuan/nickel point. The loss of ferrochrome plants intensified, and some decreased production. Although tariffs do not directly affect nickel imports and exports, the market is worried about the impact on the external demand of stainless steel terminals, so steel mills are sluggish, and the support for ferrochrome is weak [8]. - The price of nickel sulfate remained flat at 27,420. Some enterprises reduced production to support prices due to losses, but the demand for new - energy batteries is in the off - season, so the support for nickel sulfate is limited, and it is mainly weak [8]. 2. Industry News - On July 8, the Secretary - General of the Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) revealed that the actual nickel ore production in Indonesia in 2025 was only 120 million tons, far less than the approved quota of 364.1 million tons from January to June. The main reason was the impact of the rainy season in major mining areas. In the first half of the year, Indonesia still imported 4.6 million tons of nickel ore from the Philippines [9]. - Since January 2025, due to policies such as the Domestic Sales Obligation (DMO), the increase in biodiesel blending ratio, new export fees, and the Global Minimum Tax (GMT), the cost pressure of the Indonesian nickel industry has continued to rise [11]. - Bulgaria officially launched the largest operating battery energy storage system in the EU, with a capacity of 124 MW/496.2 MWh [11]. - A research team in Turkey developed a TOPCon solar cell with nickel contact and almost no silver, which significantly reduced the silver consumption while maintaining high efficiency [11]. - Renewable energy storage company Apatura obtained planning permission for a 100 - MW battery energy storage system project in Scotland, which will help the UK enhance the resilience of the power system [11].