1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pre - holiday cooling does not change the upward trend of the bottom. Pre - holiday, the precious metal decline led to a cooling of sentiment in the non - ferrous sector, and funds left the market to avoid high - level risks. Although the non - ferrous metals generally declined, there were signs of stabilization on Friday. In the nickel market, there are supply uncertainties in the far - month, and the financial attribute of the non - ferrous sector has increased. For trading, it is recommended to reduce positions before the holiday, and consider light - position long positions after the price stabilizes [6]. - The cost support of nickel ore for subsequent links is emerging, especially for the NPI price. The cost of stainless steel remains firm, but the immediate cost - profit of steel mills is shrinking. After the holiday, if the nickel price stabilizes and inventory reduction is normal, there is still value in going long at a low price [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Spread Tracking and Inventory 3.1.1 Nickel - Global Nickel Inventory at a High Level - Global visible nickel inventory reached 360,000 tons, an increase of 2,080 tons this week. Among them, domestic social inventory increased by 2,582 tons, and LME inventory decreased by 1,002 tons. Jinchuan nickel was in short supply, and the premium reached 9,500 yuan/ton [15]. 3.1.2 Stainless Steel - Social Inventory Slowly Accumulating Before the Festival - Before the festival, the social inventory of stainless steel was slowly accumulating. The inventory of stainless steel plants and the overall inventory - to - sales ratio of the 300 - series need attention. The spot premium and price spread of stainless steel also showed certain trends [16][17]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Pure Nickel - **Supply**: In January, refined nickel production reached 37,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 26%. In 2025, the net import of domestic refined nickel was 59,000 tons, compared with a net export of 23,600 tons in the same period last year. The supply of domestic refined nickel in 2025 was 450,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 45% [24]. - **Demand**: In pure nickel consumption, the consumption of electroplating and alloys decreased by 2 - 3% year - on - year. In January, the PMI of the nickel downstream industry stood above the 50 boom - bust line due to the recovery of stainless steel, but the consumption of pure nickel in electroplating, alloys and other fields was in the off - season and decreased month - on - month [28]. 3.2.2 Stainless Steel Raw Materials - **Indonesian Nickel Ore Quota**: The Indonesian nickel ore quota is tentatively set at 2.5 - 2.6 billion tons. In January 2026, Indonesia's import of Philippine nickel ore decreased by about 380,000 tons month - on - month, a month - on - month decrease of about 63%, and increased by about 110,000 tons year - on - year, a year - on - year increase of about 94.77%. In February 2026, the first - round benchmark price of Indonesian domestic - trade nickel ore increased month - on - month [30]. - **NPI**: NPI showed a recovery trend. The production of NPI in China and Indonesia and the import volume of nickel iron in China also had corresponding changes. The profit margins of NPI in different regions also showed different trends [31][32]. - **Chromium - based Products**: The price of chromium - based products turned upward. Zimbabwe imposed a 10% tax on the export of chromium - based products starting from January 1, 2026, which led to a continuous rebound in the price of chromium ore. The long - term contract purchase price of high - carbon ferrochrome by Tsingshan Group in January 2026 decreased month - on - month [43]. - **Cold - rolled Hedging Profit on the Futures Market**: On February 6, the prices of various stainless - steel raw materials showed certain changes, and the futures market offered cold - rolled hedging profit [47]. 3.2.3 Stainless Steel Supply and Demand - **Supply**: It is estimated that the production of stainless - steel crude steel in China and India in 2025 was 45.06 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4%. In February, due to the Spring Festival maintenance, the production schedule decreased significantly. In 2025, China's total stainless - steel imports were 1.519 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21%, and the total exports were 5.031 million tons, the same as the previous year. The net export volume was 3.512 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11% [54]. - **Demand**: Shipbuilding was still in the boom cycle, providing support for stainless - steel demand, while the growth rate of other terminal fields was not optimistic, especially the real - estate transaction volume decreased significantly year - on - year [56]. 3.2.4 New Energy Vehicles - **Domestic Market**: In 2025, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles in China were 16.626 million and 16.49 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 29% and 28.2% respectively, with a penetration rate of 47.9%, 7% higher than the same period last year. It is expected that the sales volume of new - energy vehicles in 2026 will be 19 million, a year - on - year increase of 15.2%. In January 2026, the new - energy vehicle market was in the recovery period after the expiration of the purchase - tax exemption policy, but the sales volume still achieved positive growth [60]. - **Global Market**: In 2025, the global new - energy vehicle sales increased by 19% year - on - year to 20.542 million. European new - energy vehicle sales increased by 31% year - on - year to 3.887 million, while US new - energy vehicle sales decreased by 3% year - on - year to 1.495 million. China's new - energy vehicle exports in 2025 were 2.583 million, a year - on - year increase of 103% [65]. 3.2.5 Sulfuric Acid Nickel Market - **Production**: In 2025, China's sulfuric acid nickel production decreased by 4.3% year - on - year to 354,000 nickel tons, the ternary precursor production increased by 6% year - on - year to 903,000 tons, and the ternary cathode material production increased by 19% year - on - year to 686,000 tons. In January, the demand for sulfuric acid nickel slowed down month - on - month but increased significantly year - on - year, and the price followed the upward trend of refined nickel [67]. - **Raw Materials**: In 2025, the production of Indonesian MHP increased by 41% year - on - year to 444,000 tons, and the production of high - grade nickel matte decreased by 18% year - on - year to 224,000 tons. The increase in sulfur price led to an increase in the cost of MHP, and the price remained firm. The good demand for sulfuric acid nickel boosted the price of intermediate products and stimulated the recovery of production [73]. 3.2.6 Pure Nickel Supply - Demand Balance - In February, the surplus of pure nickel expanded as production recovered [74].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the nickel price is expected to rise due to increased sensitivity to disruptions in the nickel ore market, following extreme valuation compression in nickel stainless steel [2] - The market is currently in a "buy on the rise, sell on the fall" mode, with strong price support from upstream steel mills and agents, leading to improved transactions in the 304 stainless steel segment [3] - Nickel inventory has increased by 600 tons to 59,000 tons, while nickel iron inventory has decreased by 1,000 tons to 29,300 tons, indicating a tightening supply situation [3] Group 2 - The main institutions, Dongwu Futures and Guotou Anxin Futures, both maintain a bullish outlook on nickel prices, suggesting that prices are likely to continue rising in the near term [2][3] - The approval process for nickel mines in Indonesia may result in higher-than-expected final approval volumes, which could impact market expectations [2] - The reintroduction of export license management for stainless steel products is accelerating the reduction of social inventory, further supporting price increases [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Nickel is recommended as a short position and is expected to continue its downward trend. The trading strategies include testing the previous low for single - side trading and selling out - of - the - money call options at the resistance level. Stainless steel follows the nickel price, with prices in a low - level oscillation due to weak supply and demand and weak cost support [1][5][9] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Spread Tracking and Inventory Nickel - Global visible nickel inventory is at a high level, reaching 314,000 tons, with an increase of 2,038 tons this week. LME inventory is 253,000 tons, a decrease of 264 tons this week, and SMM's six - region social inventory is 59,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,122 tons [11] Stainless Steel - Social inventory of stainless steel is higher than the same period in previous years [15] Chapter 2: Fundamental Analysis Nickel - **Supply**: SMM statistics show that refined nickel production from January to November increased by 19% year - on - year to 361,300 tons. In November, pure nickel production decreased by 10,000 tons month - on - month to 25,800 tons, and it is expected to slightly rebound to 27,400 tons in December. From January to October 2025, net imports of domestic refined nickel were 47,200 tons, compared with net exports of 23,200 tons in the same period last year. In October, there was a net export, with Russian nickel imports only about 1,000 tons. From January to October 2025, the domestic refined nickel supply was 383,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 54% [23] - **Demand**: From January to November, pure nickel consumption increased by 3% year - on - year to 268,000 tons. Electroplating consumption declined seasonally, while alloy consumption increased slightly, and overall consumption slowed down. SMM's survey shows that the PMI of nickel downstream industries in November remained below 50. In December, the production schedules of stainless steel and ternary materials decreased significantly month - on - month, electroplating was still in the off - season, and alloy consumption alone was not enough to support demand, so pure nickel consumption continued to decline month - on - month [26] Stainless Steel - **Raw Materials** - **Nickel Ore**: Nickel ore prices remained stable with a slight decline. In November 2025, Indonesia imported about 1.65 million tons of nickel ore from the Philippines, a month - on - month decrease of about 1.25 million tons (a decrease of 43.08%), and a year - on - year increase of about 1.15 million tons (an increase of 229.99%). In December, the domestic trade premium in Indonesia remained flat month - on - month, and the domestic trade benchmark price of nickel ore in Indonesia continued to decline slightly, with a slight decrease in CIF transaction prices [28] - **NPI**: NPI was in a loss state, and there was a game between upstream and downstream. High - nickel iron prices continued to fall, and some production lines switched to producing high - grade nickel matte, resulting in a significant increase in high - grade nickel matte production in November [30][75] - **Chromium Series**: Chromium ore prices rebounded this week. Tsingshan Group's long - term procurement price for high - carbon ferrochromium in December 2025 was 8,395 yuan/50 - base tons (cash - inclusive ex - works price), a month - on - month decrease of 100 yuan, and the Tianjin Port receiving price was 150 yuan lower per 50 - base tons. The spot price was 7,950 yuan/50 - base tons [42] - **Cold - Rolled Cost**: Cold - rolled costs were inverted. On December 12th, the estimated cold - rolled cash cost was around 12,950 yuan/ton, and the integrated cost reached 12,450 yuan/ton [44][46] - **Supply**: According to Steel Union's forecast, the combined stainless - steel crude steel output of China and India from January to November was 41.353 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5%. In December, the production schedules of China and India decreased significantly month - on - month, mainly in the 200 - series and 400 - series, while the 300 - series decreased by less than 20,000 tons month - on - month [54] - **Demand**: The ship - building industry had the highest growth rate and provided support. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of ship - building plate output from January to October reached 29%, while the growth rates in other terminal fields were not optimistic [56] New Energy Vehicles - **Domestic Market**: In November, the domestic sales of new energy vehicles were 1.522 million, a month - on - month increase of 4.3% and a year - on - year increase of 6.5%, with a penetration rate of 53.2%. From January to November, the domestic sales of new energy vehicles were 12.466 million, a year - on - year increase of 23.2%. According to the Passenger Car Association, from December 1st to 7th, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles nationwide were 185,000, a year - on - year decrease of 17% and a month - on - month decrease of 10%, with a retail penetration rate of 62.2%. The production of power cells followed the trend of new energy vehicle sales, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 42.4% to 111.42 GWh from January to November, and a projected month - on - month decrease of 2% in December [62] - **Overseas Market**: According to CleanTechnica statistics, from January to October 2025, the cumulative global new energy vehicle sales increased by 21.7% year - on - year to 16.39 million, compared with a 25.5% year - on - year increase in the same period last year. In the same period, European new energy vehicle sales increased by 29.4% year - on - year to 3.092 million, and US new energy vehicle sales increased by 6.8% year - on - year to 1.323 million. The US cancelled the IRA new energy vehicle subsidy on October 1st, leading to a small peak in sales in advance. Most European countries still provided subsidies for new energy vehicles and had carbon - emission requirements, which stimulated sales growth this year. According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from January to November 2025, China's total new energy vehicle exports were 2.283 million, a year - on - year increase of 100% [68] Nickel Sulfate Market - **Production**: From January to November, China's nickel sulfate production decreased by 6.9% year - on - year to 319,000 tons, and the production of ternary precursors decreased by 16% year - on - year to 648,000 tons, while the production of ternary cathode materials increased by 17% year - on - year to 737,000 tons. After December, entering the off - season, the demand for nickel sulfate may slow down [70] - **Raw Materials**: From January to November, Indonesia's MHP production increased by 45% year - on - year to 4.05 million tons, and the production of high - grade nickel matte decreased by 25% year - on - year to 1.89 million tons. The price of sulfur increased significantly this year, raising the cost of hydrometallurgy and the cost of MHP, while the price of MHP remained firm. The good demand for nickel sulfate boosted the price of intermediate products and stimulated the recovery of production. Due to the continuous decline in NPI prices, some production lines switched to producing high - grade nickel matte, resulting in a significant increase in high - grade nickel matte production in November [75] Pure Nickel - The significant reduction in pure nickel production narrowed the domestic surplus [76]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - For nickel, the high inventory restricts the rebound strength of nickel prices. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, it is expected that the production of pure nickel will significantly decline from November to December. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the strategy is to sell on rebounds and sell out - of - the - money call options at resistance levels [6]. - For stainless steel, the overall trading atmosphere is still weak, with terminal demand in the off - season. The price is under pressure, and the cost is moving down. The strategy is to sell on rebounds for single - side trading and to wait and see for arbitrage [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Spread Tracking and Inventory - **Nickel Inventory**: Global visible nickel inventory is at a high level, reaching 308,000 tons. LME inventory is 254,000 tons, increasing by 2,082 tons this week. SHFE inventory is 39,800 tons, and SMM's six - region social inventory is 52,000 tons, decreasing by 855 tons month - on - month [12]. - **Stainless Steel Inventory**: Social inventory of stainless steel is higher than the same period [17]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Supply and Demand of Refined Nickel - **Supply**: From January to October 2025, the cumulative output of refined nickel increased by 23% year - on - year to 335,500 tons. The net import was 47,200 tons, compared with a net export of 23,200 tons in the same period last year. In October, it turned to net export. The supply from January to October was 383,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 54%. It is expected that the total output in November will remain high at 35,200 tons, a slight decrease of 700 tons month - on - month [25]. - **Demand**: From January to October, the cumulative consumption of pure nickel increased by 2% year - on - year to 243,000 tons. The nickel consumption for electroplating increased month - on - month in line with the peak - season characteristics, but the off - season will be more obvious. In October, the downstream demand for nickel fell below the 50 boom - bust line [29]. 3.2.2 Stainless Steel Raw Materials - **Nickel Ore**: The price of nickel ore is stable but under great pressure. The willingness of Philippine nickel mines to hold prices is strong, but the high - nickel iron market has limited ability to absorb nickel ore, showing a situation of weak supply and demand. The premium of domestic - trade nickel ore in November was flat month - on - month [31]. - **NPI**: The supply of NPI increased, and the price was under pressure. The production of China + Indonesia's NPI from January to October showed an overall upward trend, and the inventory of NPI in China also increased [34][36]. - **Chromium Series**: The price of chromium series weakened. The price of chrome ore has been declining continuously. The long - term contract purchase price of high - carbon ferrochrome by Tsingshan Group in December 2025 decreased month - on - month [38]. - **Cost Inversion of Cold - Rolled Products**: The prices of various raw materials such as nickel ore, high - nickel iron, and chromium series showed a downward trend from November 17th to 21st [43]. 3.2.3 Stainless Steel Supply and Demand - **Supply**: From January to October, the combined stainless - steel crude - steel output of China and Indonesia increased by 5% year - on - year. In November, the output decreased month - on - month. From January to October 2025, China's stainless - steel imports decreased by 21% year - on - year, exports remained flat year - on - year, and net exports increased by 14% year - on - year [52]. - **Demand**: The shipbuilding industry has the highest growth rate and provides support. The cumulative year - on - year growth of shipbuilding plate output from January to September reached 28%, while the growth rates of other terminal fields are not optimistic [54]. 3.2.4 New Energy Vehicles - **Domestic Market**: In October, the sales of new - energy vehicles were 1.715 million, a year - on - year increase of 20%. From January to October, the sales were 12.911 million, a year - on - year increase of 32%. The power cell production also increased. However, the off - season is coming, and a decline in the power sector is likely [61]. - **Global Market**: From January to September 2025, global new - energy vehicle sales increased by 23.5% year - on - year. US sales increased by 11.4% year - on - year, and European sales increased by 28.5% year - on - year. China's new - energy vehicle exports from January to October increased by 87% year - on - year [68]. 3.2.5 Sulfuric Acid Nickel Market - **Production**: From January to October, the cumulative output of nickel sulfate decreased by 9.9% year - on - year to 282,000 tons. The output of ternary precursors decreased by 15% year - on - year to 595,000 tons, and the output of ternary cathode materials increased by 15% year - on - year to 654,000 tons [70]. - **Raw Materials**: The output of Indonesian MHP from January to October increased by 50% year - on - year to 366,000 tons, and the output of high - grade nickel matte decreased by 31% year - on - year to 160,000 tons. The increase in sulfur prices has raised the cost of MHP, but the good demand for nickel sulfate has stimulated the recovery of intermediate product output [74]. 3.2.6 Pure Nickel Market - There is a significant domestic surplus of pure nickel due to a large increase in imports [75].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The nickel market is expected to be under pressure and move weakly in a fluctuating manner. The price may test the previous low support. For nickel trading, the strategy is to sell on rebounds in the unilateral market and sell out - of - the - money call options at the resistance level in the options market. For stainless steel, it is also expected to move weakly in a fluctuating manner, with the strategy of selling on rebounds in the unilateral market and taking a wait - and - see approach in the arbitrage market [5][6][9]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Chapter 1: Spread Tracking and Inventory - **Nickel Inventory**: Global visible nickel inventory is at a high level. LME inventory is 250,000 tons, with a small increase of 1,002 tons this week. SHFE inventory is 37,000 tons, and domestic delivery volume has increased. SMM's six - region social inventory is 49,000 tons, with a small increase of 1,029 tons month - on - month [12][13]. - **Stainless Steel Inventory**: Stainless steel social inventory continues to decline. The destocking speed has slowed down, and the price is under pressure [9][18]. Chapter 2: Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Refined Nickel Supply and Demand - **Supply**: SMM statistics show that the cumulative refined nickel output from January to October increased by 23% year - on - year to 335,500 tons. It is expected that the total domestic refined nickel output in November will remain at a high level of 35,200 tons, a slight decrease of 700 tons month - on - month. From January to September 2025, the net import of domestic refined nickel was 51,100 tons, compared with a net export of 19,700 tons in the same period last year. The supply of domestic refined nickel from January to September 2025 was 351,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 58.3% [25]. - **Demand**: The consumption of electroplating and alloy with refined nickel is stable. The cumulative pure nickel consumption from January to October increased by 2% year - on - year to 243,000 tons. The nickel consumption for electroplating increased month - on - month in line with the peak - season characteristics, but the off - season will also be obvious. SMM research shows that the downstream demand for nickel in October fell below the 50 boom - bust line, with all sub - items below 50 [26][29]. 2.2 Stainless Steel Raw Materials and Supply - Demand - **Raw Materials** - **Nickel Ore**: Due to the rainy season and typhoons in the Philippines, nickel mines have a strong willingness to hold prices. However, the overall high - nickel iron market is weak, and the ability to absorb nickel ore is limited, resulting in a situation of weak supply and demand. The domestic trade premium in Indonesia remained flat, and the first - round domestic trade benchmark price in November decreased slightly month - on - month, with the full price remaining stable [31]. - **NPI**: The supply of NPI has increased, and the price is under pressure. The profit margin of Chinese NPI has shown certain fluctuations [32][33]. - **Chromium Series**: Chromium ore prices have been continuously weakening. The long - term contract purchase price of high - carbon ferrochrome by Tsingshan Group in November 2025 was 8,495 yuan/50 base tons (cash - inclusive delivered - to - factory price), a month - on - month increase of 200 yuan [39][40]. - **Cold - Rolled Cost**: There is a cost inversion in cold - rolled stainless steel. The estimated cold - rolled cash cost is about 13,250 yuan/ton, and the integrated cost reaches 12,750 yuan/ton [42]. - **Supply**: It is estimated that the output of Chinese and Indian stainless - steel crude steel from January to September was 33.45 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5%. In October, the output of both China and India increased month - on - month, but there may be production cuts due to cost inversion. From January to September 2025, China's total stainless - steel imports were 1.138 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21%. The total exports were 3.783 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2%. The net export volume was 2.645 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16% [52]. - **Demand**: The output of shipbuilding plates from January to September increased by 28% year - on - year, while the growth rates of other terminal fields are not optimistic [54]. 2.3 New Energy - Related Markets - **New Energy Vehicles** - **Domestic Market**: In September, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 1.604 million, a year - on - year increase of 24.6%, and the penetration rate reached 49.7%. From January to September, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 11.228 million, a year - on - year increase of 34.9%. From October 1st to 31st, the retail sales of the new energy passenger - vehicle market were 1.4 million, a year - on - year increase of 17% and a month - on - month increase of 8%. The cumulative retail sales this year reached 10.27 million, a year - on - year increase of 23%. The production of power cells followed the trend of new energy vehicle sales, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 44.5% to 985.5 GWh from January to October, and a month - on - month increase of 0.2% in November [60]. - **Global Market**: From January to September 2025, the cumulative sales volume of global new energy vehicles increased by 23.5% year - on - year to 14.479 million. The cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles in Europe increased by 28.5% year - on - year to 2.746 million. The cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles in the United States increased by 11.4% year - on - year to 1.232 million. China's cumulative exports of new energy vehicles from January to September 2025 were 1.727 million, a year - on - year increase of 86% [65]. - **Nickel Sulfate Market**: The cumulative output of nickel sulfate in China from January to October decreased by 9.9% year - on - year to 282,000 tons. The cumulative output of ternary precursors from January to October decreased by 15% year - on - year to 595,000 tons. The cumulative output of ternary cathode materials from January to October increased by 15% year - on - year to 654,000 tons. During the peak production season of power batteries from September to October, the ternary materials increased month - on - month, but due to the sharp increase in cobalt prices affected by export restrictions in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the growth of precursor output was less than expected [67]. - **Nickel Sulfate Raw Materials**: The cumulative output of Indonesian MHP from January to October increased by 50% year - on - year to 366,000 tons. The output of Indonesian high - grade nickel matte from January to October decreased by 31% year - on - year to 160,000 tons. The cost of MHP has increased, and the price has remained firm. The good demand for nickel sulfate has boosted the price of intermediate products and stimulated the recovery of production [73]. 2.4 Pure Nickel Import and Supply - Demand Balance The large increase in pure nickel imports has led to an obvious domestic surplus [74].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rebound of nickel prices is driven by the general rise in commodities. The overall nickel market shows an oversupply situation in the current and next years. The nickel price is expected to continue to move within a range, and the stainless - steel price has limited upward space due to weak demand expectations [4][5][6]. - The new energy vehicle market shows structural growth, with the US electrification process slowing down and European subsidies stimulating sales. The ternary material in the nickel sulfate market is growing, but the precursor supply is tight [61][66][68]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1价差追踪与库存 - Global nickel inventory is at a high level. The global visible inventory reaches 300,000 tons, with LME inventory at 250,000 tons remaining basically flat this week, SHFE inventory at 36,000 tons with an increase in domestic delivery volume, and SMM's six - location social inventory at 48,800 tons with a slight increase [14]. - Stainless - steel social inventory is at a low level and remains flat [19]. 3.2基本面分析 3.2.1镍 - **Supply**: SMM statistics show that the cumulative refined nickel production from January to September increased by 24% year - on - year to 3 million tons. It is expected that the total domestic refined nickel production in October will remain high at 36,300 tons, a slight decrease of 200 tons month - on - month. From January to August 2025, the net import of domestic refined nickel was 36,800 tons, compared with a net export of 15,000 tons in the same period last year. The domestic refined nickel supply from January to August 2025 was 3 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 55% [27]. - **Demand**: The cumulative pure nickel consumption from January to September increased by 1% year - on - year to 2.16 million tons. SMM research shows that the downstream demand for nickel decreased slightly month - on - month in September but remained above the boom - bust line, mainly relying on the stainless - steel PMI remaining at 50. The stainless - steel consumption in October fell short of expectations, which may affect the overall nickel consumption [30]. - **Trading Logic and Strategy**: The supply of pure nickel is abundant, and the demand is weak, limiting the upward space. The nickel ore price is stable, providing cost support. The LME nickel inventory increased slightly this week, remaining above 250,000 tons. The macro sentiment remains neutral, and the power to drive nickel out of the shock range is insufficient. The nickel price will continue to move within the range. For single - side trading, it is expected to be in a wide - range shock; for options, sell the wide - straddle option combination [6]. 3.2.2不锈钢 - **Raw Materials** - **Nickel Ore**: The domestic nickel ore port inventory has peaked and declined due to the start of the rainy season in the Philippines. The Indonesian domestic trade premium remains stable, and the second - round benchmark price in October was slightly raised, with the full price remaining firm [32]. - **NPI**: The supply of NPI increases, and the price is under pressure. The production of NPI in China and Indonesia from January to September shows an increasing trend, and the high - nickel iron price is under pressure due to factors such as market supply and demand [33]. - **Chromium Series**: The chromium ore price has been weakening for two consecutive weeks. The long - term contract procurement price of high - carbon ferrochrome by Tsingshan Group in October 2025 increased by 200 yuan month - on - month [39]. - **Cold - Rolled Cost**: There is a cost inversion in cold - rolled stainless steel. The cost of cold - rolled stainless steel remains high, while the market price is relatively low, resulting in cost inversion [44]. - **Supply**: It is expected that the combined stainless - steel crude steel production of China and India from January to September was 33.45 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5%. In October, the production in both countries increased month - on - month, but there may be production cuts due to cost inversion. From January to September 2025, China's total stainless - steel imports were 1.138 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21%, and the total exports were 3.783 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2%. The net export volume was 2.645 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16% [52]. - **Demand**: The shipbuilding industry has the highest growth rate, providing support for stainless - steel demand. The production of shipbuilding plates from January to September increased by 28% year - on - year, while the growth rates in other terminal fields are not optimistic [54]. - **Trading Logic and Strategy**: For arbitrage, temporarily wait and see. For single - side trading, sell on rebounds and pay attention to the pressure at the 13,000 level [9][10]. 3.2.3新能源汽车 - **Domestic Market**: According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in September was 1.604 million, a year - on - year increase of 24.6%, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 49.7%. From January to September, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 11.228 million, a year - on - year increase of 34.9%. The production of power cells follows the trend of new energy vehicle sales, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 45.6% to 861.04 GWh from January to September, and a month - on - month increase of 9.1% in October [61]. - **International Market**: CleanTechnica statistics show that the cumulative sales volume of global new energy vehicles from January to August 2025 increased by 23.5% year - on - year to 12.371 million. The cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles in Europe from January to August 2025 increased by 27.4% year - on - year to 2.347 million, while the cumulative sales volume in the US from January to August 2025 increased by 8.1% year - on - year to 1.063 million. The US cancelled the IRA new energy vehicle subsidy on October 1, resulting in a small peak in sales in advance. Most European countries still have subsidies for new energy vehicles, stimulating sales growth this year. China's cumulative new energy vehicle exports from January to September 2025 were 1.727 million, a year - on - year increase of 86% [66]. 3.2.4硫酸镍 - **Market**: The cumulative production of nickel sulfate in China from January to September decreased by 13.6% year - on - year to 246,000 tons. The cumulative production of ternary precursors from January to September decreased by 13% year - on - year to 540,000 tons, while the cumulative production of ternary cathode materials from January to September increased by 12% year - on - year to 569,000 tons. During the peak production season of power batteries from September to October, the ternary materials increased month - on - month, but the growth of precursor production was less than expected due to the sharp increase in cobalt prices [68]. - **Raw Materials**: The production of Indonesian MHP from January to September increased by 53% year - on - year to 325,000 tons, while the production of Indonesian high - grade nickel matte from January to September decreased by 34% year - on - year to 138,000 tons. This year, the sulfur price has risen significantly, increasing the cost of hydrometallurgy, and the MHP cost has increased, with the price remaining firm [72]. 3.2.5纯镍 - The large increase in pure nickel imports leads to an obvious domestic surplus situation [73].

Report Title - Acceleration of Inventory Accumulation, Nickel Prices Under Pressure [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The nickel market is expected to remain in a state of high surplus in the next two years, with increasing global nickel inventories and a difficult - to - reverse supply - demand surplus pattern. Nickel prices are predicted to experience wide - range fluctuations with a downward - shifting center of gravity, testing cost support. Stainless steel may maintain a weak and volatile pattern [5][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Spread Tracking and Inventory 1.1 Nickel - Global Nickel Inventory Rapidly Accumulating - Global visible nickel inventory reaches 300,000 tons, with LME inventory at 250,000 tons (an increase of 13,000 tons this week), SHFE inventory at 34,000 tons, and SMM's six - region social inventory at 48,000 tons (with a slight increase) [13]. 1.2 Stainless Steel - Social Inventory Slightly Increasing After the Holiday - Social inventory increased during the National Day holiday and continued to rise slightly after the holiday, indicating weak current demand [11][18]. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Nickel 2.1.1 Supply: High - level Supply of Refined Nickel in China and India - SMM statistics show that the cumulative output of refined nickel from January to September increased by 24% year - on - year to 300,000 tons. The total domestic refined nickel output in October is expected to remain high at 36,300 tons, a slight decrease of 200 tons from the previous month. From January to August 2025, the net import of domestic refined nickel was 36,800 tons, compared with a net export of 15,000 tons in the same period last year. The supply of domestic refined nickel from January to August 2025 was 300,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 55% [26]. 2.1.2 Demand: Stable Consumption of Electroplating and Alloys - The cumulative consumption of pure nickel for batteries from January to September increased by 1% year - on - year to 216,000 tons. SMM research shows that the downstream demand for nickel decreased slightly in September but remained above the boom - bust line, mainly supported by the stainless - steel PMI at 50. The stainless - steel consumption in October fell short of expectations, which may affect the overall nickel consumption [29]. 2.2 Stainless Steel 2.2.1 Raw Materials - Nickel Ore Prices Stable with an Upward Bias - The FOB price of nickel ore is expected to rise due to the approaching rainy season in the Surigao region of the Philippines and reduced overall market supply. However, price increases are difficult due to the weak nickel - iron market. In Indonesia's domestic trade, the second - round benchmark price of domestic nickel ore in October increased month - on - month, and the premium rose slightly to +$25 - 26 [31]. 2.2.2 Raw Materials - Stable NPI Prices - The prices of high - nickel iron and NPI remained stable. The production of NPI in China and Indonesia from January to September showed certain trends, and the inventory of NPI in China also had corresponding changes [33][34][36]. 2.2.3 Raw Materials - Stable Chromium - based Prices - Chromium ore prices remained stable. The long - term purchase price of high - carbon ferrochrome by Tsingshan Group in October 2025 increased month - on - month. The estimated cold - rolling cash cost is around $13,500 per ton, and the integrated cost reaches $13,000 per ton [38][40]. 2.2.4 Raw Materials - Cold - rolling Cost Inversion - On October 17, the prices of various stainless - steel raw materials showed certain changes compared with the previous days, and the cold - rolling cost was in an inverted state [42]. 2.2.5 Supply - Increased Stainless - steel Mill Production Scheduling in October - It is estimated that the output of stainless - steel crude steel in China and India from January to September was 3.345 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5%. In October, the output in both countries increased month - on - month, but production cuts may occur due to cost inversion. From January to August 2025, China's stainless - steel imports decreased by 23% year - on - year, exports increased by 3% year - on - year, and the net export volume increased by 21% year - on - year [51]. 2.2.6 Demand - Shipbuilding Growth Provides Support - The cumulative year - on - year growth of shipbuilding plate output from January to August reached 29%, while the growth rates of other terminal fields were not optimistic [53]. 2.3 New Energy Vehicles 2.3.1 Domestic Sales with Seasonal Month - on - Month Growth - In September, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles reached 1.617 million and 1.604 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 23.7% and 24.6% respectively. The retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in September were 1.296 million, a year - on - year increase of 15.5% and a month - on - month increase of 16.2%. The cumulative retail sales from January to September were 8.866 million, a year - on - year increase of 24.4%. The cumulative year - on - year growth of power battery cell production from January to September was 45.6% to 86.104 GWh [60]. 2.3.2 Slowed Electrification Process in Europe and the United States - From January to August 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth of global new - energy vehicle sales was 23.5% to 12.371 million, the cumulative year - on - year growth of European new - energy vehicle sales was 27.4% to 2.347 million, and the cumulative year - on - year growth of US new - energy vehicle sales was 8.1% to 1.063 million. From January to September 2025, China's new - energy vehicle exports were 1.727 million, a year - on - year increase of 86% [65]. 2.3.3 Nickel Sulfate Market - Growth of Ternary Materials and Tight Precursor Supply - From January to September, the cumulative year - on - year production of nickel sulfate in China decreased by 13.6% to 246,000 tons, the cumulative year - on - year production of ternary precursors decreased by 13% to 540,000 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year production of ternary cathode materials increased by 12% to 569,000 tons. During the peak production season of power batteries from September to October, the ternary materials increased month - on - month, but the growth of precursor production was less than expected [67]. 2.3.4 Nickel Sulfate Raw Materials - Recovery Growth of Intermediate Product Output - From January to September, the cumulative year - on - year production of MHP in Indonesia increased by 53% to 325,000 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year production of high - grade nickel matte decreased by 34% to 138,000 tons. The cost of MHP increased, and the price remained firm [71]. 2.4 Large Increase in Pure Nickel Imports, Obvious Domestic Surplus - The supply - demand balance of primary nickel and pure nickel in China shows an obvious surplus situation [72]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Nickel market: The expectation of nickel surplus persists, with general spot trading. Downstream demand has increased slightly overall due to the rise in stainless - steel production in August. The supply side has also seen a slight increase month - on - month, resulting in a slow increase in inventory. Nickel prices are expected to remain in a volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to changes in the macro - situation [6]. - Stainless - steel market: The global economic outlook and tariff policy changes still affect the external demand for stainless steel, and the Fed's decisions also influence the macro - atmosphere. Stainless - steel prices lack upward demand drivers but are supported by costs at the bottom, so they are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Chapter 1: Spread Tracking and Inventory 3.1.1 Nickel - Global Nickel Inventory Slow Accumulation - Global visible inventory stands at 258,000 tons, including 211,000 tons in LME inventory, 27,000 tons in SHFE inventory, and 41,000 tons in SMM's six - location social inventory [11]. 3.1.2 Stainless Steel - Social Inventory Reduction - Steel mills have fine - tuned the arrival volume of goods in the spot market, with limited new supplies. Social inventory has decreased for five consecutive weeks. Some steel mills that had centralized maintenance in August have announced复产 plans [8]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Nickel Supply and Demand - **Supply**: From January to July, the cumulative production of refined nickel increased by 40% year - on - year to 229,000 tons. It is expected that the total domestic refined nickel production in August will be 32,500 tons, a slight increase of 1% month - on - month. In the first six months of 2025, the net import of domestic refined nickel was 5,093 tons, compared with a net export of 922 tons in the same period last year [23]. - **Demand**: From January to July, the cumulative consumption of pure nickel increased by 3% year - on - year to 170,000 tons. In July, the downstream demand for nickel improved, and the PMI of the nickel downstream industry returned to the 50 boom - bust line, mainly driven by the recovery of stainless steel. The demand for electroplating and alloys remained stable, while that for batteries declined slightly [27]. 3.2.2 Stainless - Steel Raw Materials - **Nickel Ore**: The price of nickel ore has stabilized. The rainy season is approaching in the Philippines, and nickel mines are showing a strong price - holding sentiment. Some mines have reported higher FOB prices for September shipments. In Indonesia, the premium for domestic nickel ore in August remained at HPM + 24 (excluding rewards) [29]. - **NPI**: The NPI price has rebounded following the stainless - steel market. The latest transaction price of NPI has risen above 950 yuan per nickel point, and the raw material side is relatively strong [8]. - **Chromium Series**: Chromium ore prices have remained stable for a long time. In August 2025, Tsingshan Group's long - term contract purchase price for high - carbon ferrochrome was 7,995 yuan per 50 - base ton (cash - inclusive delivered - to - factory price), a decrease of 100 yuan per 50 - base ton compared with July [36]. - **Cold - Rolled Cost**: The cold - rolled cost has increased. Taking high - nickel iron at 950 yuan per nickel point and high - carbon ferrochrome at 8,150 yuan per 50 - base ton as an example, the estimated cold - rolled cash cost is around 13,300 yuan per ton [39]. 3.2.3 Stainless - Steel Supply and Demand - **Supply**: From January to July, the combined stainless - steel crude steel production in China and India was 25.86 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. In August, production in Indonesia resumed, and domestic production remained basically flat. The planned production increased by 30,000 tons compared with July and remained at a high level [47]. - **Demand**: The production plan of white - goods has declined, while the shipbuilding industry provides support. In the first six months of 2025, China's stainless - steel import volume was 827,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25%, and the export volume was 2.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. The net export volume was 1.673 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 33% [47]. 3.2.4 New Energy Vehicles - **Domestic Sales**: From January to July, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 6.968 million and 6.937 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 41.4% and 40.3%. The retail sales of new energy vehicles from August 1 - 10 were 262,000, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 6%. The penetration rate of new energy vehicle retail sales was 57.9% [56]. - **Overseas Market**: From January to June 2025, global new energy vehicle sales increased by 30.8% year - on - year to 9.55 million. In the US, sales increased by 0.6% year - on - year to 828,000, and in Europe, sales increased by 22.4% year - on - year to 1.756 million. China's new energy vehicle exports from January to July increased by 81% year - on - year to 1.281 million [60]. 3.2.5 Sulfuric Acid Nickel Market - **Production**: From January to July, China's sulfuric acid nickel production decreased by 17.4% year - on - year to 182,000 tons. The production of ternary precursors decreased by 3% year - on - year to 462,000 tons, and the production of ternary cathode materials increased by 8% year - on - year to 420,000 tons [62]. - **Raw Materials**: From January to July, Indonesia's MHP production increased by 57% year - on - year to 243,000 tons, while high - grade nickel matte production decreased by 39% year - on - year to 98,000 tons [64]. 3.2.6 Supply - Demand Balance - In July, the shortage of primary nickel narrowed, while pure nickel remained in surplus [65].

Group 1 - Stainless steel futures prices experienced a peak and subsequent decline, reaching a high of 13,280 CNY/ton before closing at 13,010 CNY/ton, a decrease of 270 CNY/ton or 2.03% [1] - Nickel prices also saw a similar trend, closing at 120,600 CNY/ton, down 2,510 CNY/ton or 2.04% from the peak [1] Group 2 - The 304 market prices initially rose and then fell, with the mainstream price for cold-rolled 304 in Wuxi reported at 12,800 CNY/ton, an increase of 100 CNY/ton from the previous week [3] - Hot-rolled prices for 304 reached 12,550 CNY/ton, up 50 CNY/ton from the previous week [3] - Steel mills raised their quotes at the beginning of the week, leading to a strong willingness among agents to maintain high prices due to low inventory and strong demand [3] - The supply of materials significantly decreased during the week, with notable declines from major suppliers, alleviating supply pressure [3] Group 3 - Overall market prices are fluctuating, influenced by policy changes and downstream demand for low-priced goods [4] - Steel mills are reducing production, which has eased supply pressure and improved the supply-demand balance [4] - The trillion-dollar infrastructure investment is boosting sentiment across related industries, while ongoing policy changes and international tariff issues are intensifying market volatility [4] - Short-term price movements for 304 cold and hot-rolled products are expected to follow market fluctuations, with a focus on transaction volumes and inventory levels [4]

Report Information - Report Title: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: August 1, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Core Viewpoint - On the 31st, black - series commodities tumbled, and Shanghai nickel showed weakness, closing below the 120,000 mark again. The main contract 2509 closed down 1.79% at 119,830, with the total open interest of the index increasing by 11,234 to 190,329 lots. The nickel surplus pattern remains unchanged, and prices declined again after the cooling of macro - sentiment. The overall surplus pattern of nickel is still significant, and the nickel price is temporarily regarded as weak [8]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - **Market Performance**: On the 31st, black - series commodities fell generally, and Shanghai nickel was weak. The main 2509 contract closed down 1.79% at 119,830, and the total open interest of the index increased by 11,234 to 190,329 lots [8]. - **Supply - side Situation**: There are expectations of loose supply from the mining ends in the Philippines and Indonesia, and the probability of subsequent decline in ore prices is high. Under the pressure of losses, some production lines in Indonesia have switched to producing high - grade nickel matte, driving a slight recovery in the low - level nickel - iron price. On the 31st, the average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel iron was reported at 912.5 yuan per nickel point, but the acceptance of high - price nickel ore remains low [8]. - **Demand - side Situation**: The stainless - steel market is still weak, in the traditional off - season of consumption with high inventory. As the nickel - iron price rises, some downstream enterprises prefer to purchase scrap stainless steel for production, and the acceptance of high - nickel pig iron prices is also poor. The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate remained flat at 27,370 yuan per ton on the 31st, and it stopped falling and rebounded in the short term supported by the rigid replenishment demand of precursors and the low inventory of nickel salt plants [8]. 2. Industry News - **Indonesian Investment**: Indonesia's national investment management agency Danantara is exploring investment opportunities in the nickel downstream industry. It is considering acquiring the PT Gunbuster Nickel Industry (GNI) smelter. Danantara expects to prepare an investment plan of over $20 billion and provide about $60 million in medium - term financing through a syndicated loan [9][10]. - **Battery Energy Storage**: Bulgaria officially launched the largest - scale operating battery energy storage system in the EU, with a capacity of 124 megawatts/496.2 megawatt - hours. Renewable energy storage company Apatura has obtained planning permission for a 100 - megawatt battery energy storage system (BESS) project in Scotland, and its approved total energy storage capacity has exceeded 1.6 gigawatts [10]. - **Solar Cell Innovation**: A research team in Turkey developed a TOPCon solar cell using nickel (Ni) contacts with almost no silver (Ag), achieving nearly the same efficiency while significantly reducing silver usage, which is expected to reduce production costs and improve sustainability and scalability [10].