Core Viewpoint - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains stable, with the 1-year rate at 3.0% and the 5-year rate at 3.5%, reflecting stable economic conditions and policy rates [1][2]. Economic Performance - China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters, showing an acceleration compared to the previous year [1]. - The overall economic operation remains stable, supporting the decision to keep LPR unchanged [1]. Monetary Policy Outlook - There is a possibility of a new round of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) reductions by the central bank before the end of the year, which could lead to a further decline in LPR [2]. - The central bank has cumulatively lowered policy rates by 0.8 percentage points since the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan, resulting in a significant decrease in financing costs for the real economy [2]. Housing Market Policies - It is anticipated that the regulatory authorities may further strengthen policies to stabilize the housing market, potentially leading to a more significant reduction in mortgage rates [2]. - The fourth quarter is seen as a critical period for implementing growth-stabilizing policies, with expectations for increased credit supply from financial institutions [2]. External Factors - The external environment, particularly the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, has created a favorable context for domestic monetary policy adjustments [3]. - The overall stability of the domestic economic situation will be a key factor in determining whether LPR adjustments will occur [3].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at 3.0% for 1-year and 3.5% for 5-year loans for five consecutive months, indicating a lack of motivation for banks to lower LPR quotes amid historically low net interest margins [1][2]. Group 1: LPR Stability - The LPR for both 1-year and 5-year terms has remained unchanged for five months, reflecting a stable pricing basis due to the unchanged policy rates [2]. - The recent increase in market interest rates, including the AAA-rated 1-year interbank certificates of deposit, has slightly raised the financing costs for commercial banks, further reducing the incentive to lower LPR quotes [2][3]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Factors - Recent macroeconomic data, including consumption, investment, and industrial production, has shown a decline due to multiple factors such as extreme weather and adjustments in the real estate market [3]. - The acceleration in export growth, influenced by trade transfer effects and changes in the previous year's base, along with earlier fiscal policy support, has contributed to the stability of the LPR [3]. Group 3: Future Policy Outlook - Analysts predict an increased necessity for policies aimed at stabilizing growth and employment, especially in light of external volatility and declining investment and consumption growth [5]. - There is a potential for a new round of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions by the end of the year, which could lead to a decrease in LPR quotes, stimulating internal financing demand [5][6]. - The recent U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts may weaken the constraints on China's monetary policy, increasing the likelihood of domestic rate adjustments [5][6].

新一期贷款市场报价利率（LPR）出炉。10月20日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，2025年10月20日LPR为：1年期LPR为3%，5年期以上 LPR为3.5%。两大报价均与前值保持一致，以上LPR在下一次发布LPR之前有效。 自2025年5月双双下行10个基点后，LPR两大报价已经连续5个月未发生变化，背后主要支撑因素集中在政策利率持稳、商业银行净息差压力以及货币政策处 于观察期等方面。有分析人士指出，年底前人民银行有可能实施新一轮降息降准，并带动两个期限品种的LPR报价跟进下降。 | | | | 中国人民银行 THE PEOPLE'S BANK OF CHINA | | 货币政策司 Monetary Policy Department | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 信息公开 | 新闻发布 | 法律法规 | 货币政策 | 宏观审慎 | 信贷政策 | 金融市场 | 金融稳定 | 调查统计 | 银行 | | | 金融科技 | 人民币 | 经理国库 | 国际交往 | 人员招录 | ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China announced that the new LPR rates remain unchanged at 3.0% for the 1-year term and 3.5% for the 5-year term, consistent with market expectations [1] - The stability in LPR rates is attributed to the unchanged policy interest rates and rising financing costs for commercial banks, which limits their motivation to lower LPR quotes [1][2] - The recent external volatility and the need for economic stability may lead to a potential reduction in LPR rates by the end of the year, as the central bank may implement new interest rate cuts [2] Group 2 - Economic indicators such as consumption, investment, and industrial production have shown a decline due to multiple factors including extreme weather and real estate market adjustments [2] - The acceleration in export growth is influenced by trade transfer effects and changes in the previous year's base, alongside supportive fiscal policies and earlier monetary easing [2] - The central bank's potential interest rate cuts are expected to stimulate internal financing demand, which is crucial for promoting consumption and investment in response to external demand slowdowns [2]

多位业内人士表示，10月两个期限品种的LPR报价保持不变，符合市场预期。 文/刘佳 10月20日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布最新一期LPR报价。其中，1年期品种报 3.0%，上月为3.0%；5年期以上品种报3.5%，上月为3.5%。这是LPR自今年5月下降以来，连续5个月维 持不变。 值得注意的是，9月美联储恢复降息，并有可能连续降息，外部因素对国内实施适度宽松货币政策的掣 肘进一步弱化。机构预计，年底前央行有可能实施新一轮降息降准，并带动两个期限品种的LPR报价跟 进下调。 招联首席研究员董希淼向《华夏时报》记者分析称，四季度是稳增长政策收官之时，央行或将结合降准 等其他的政策工具，通过恢复国债买卖来向银行体系注入长期流动性，引导金融机构加大信贷投放。如 果政策利率进一步下降，银行资金成本继续下行，未来两个月LPR或将有5基点至10基点降幅。 编辑：冯樱子 机构分析认为，10月以来政策利率（央行7天期逆回购利率）保持稳定，意味着当月LPR报价的定价基 础没有发生变化，已在很大程度上预示10月LPR报价会保持不动。另外，受反内卷牵动市场预期等影 响，近期包括1年期银行同业存单到期收益率（AAA ...

Group 1: LPR Pricing and Market Expectations - The LPR rates for October remain unchanged at 3.0% for the 1-year and 3.5% for the 5-year, aligning with market expectations[1] - The stability in LPR pricing is attributed to the unchanged policy interest rates and rising financing costs for commercial banks[2] - Recent macroeconomic data shows a decline in consumption, investment, and industrial production due to multiple factors, yet export growth has accelerated[2] Group 2: Future Outlook and Policy Implications - Increased external volatility and the need for stronger growth and employment measures suggest potential LPR rate cuts before year-end[3] - The introduction of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools and local government debt limits indicates a push for effective investment and growth[3] - A potential reduction in LPR rates could stimulate loan demand and counteract external demand slowdowns, especially with low current price levels[4] - Further measures to stabilize the real estate market may include targeted reductions in the 5-year LPR to lower mortgage rates and boost housing demand[4]

东方金诚预计，年底前央行有可能实施新一轮降息降准，并带动两个期限品种的LPR报价跟进下调。这 将引导企业和居民贷款利率更大幅度下行，激发内生性融资需求，是四季度促消费扩投资、有效对冲外 需放缓的一个重要发力点。现阶段物价水平偏低，货币政策在包括降息在内的适度宽松方向上有充足空 间。 对此，国有控股信用评级机构东方金诚解读称，10月两个期限品种的LPR报价保持不变，符合市场预 期。首先，10月以来政策利率（央行7天期逆回购利率）保持稳定，意味着当月LPR报价的定价基础没 有发生变化，已在很大程度上预示10月LPR报价会保持不动。另外，受反内卷牵动市场预期等影响，近 期包括1年期银行同业存单到期收益率（AAA级）在内主要中长端市场利率有所上行，商业银行在货币 市场的融资成本略有上升。在商业银行净息差处于历史最低点的背景下，当前报价行主动下调LPR报价 加点的动力不足。由此，10月两个期限品种的LPR报价不动符合市场普遍预期。 另外，接下来稳楼市政策需要进一步加力。预计四季度监管层有可能通过单独引导5年期以上LPR报价 下行等方式，推动居民房贷利率更大幅度下调。这是现阶段缓解实际居民房贷利率偏高问题，激发市场 购房 ...

记者 辛圆 中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，2025年10月20日，贷款市场报价利率（LPR）为：1年期LPR为3.00%，5年期以上LPR为3.50%，均较上月 保持不变。 LPR自今年5月下调之后，已有五个月按兵不动。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青对智通财经表示，10月两个期限品种的LPR报价保持不变，符合市场预期。首先，10月以来政策利率保持稳定，意味着当月 LPR报价的定价基础没有发生变化，已在很大程度上预示10月LPR报价会保持不动。 广开首席产业研究院首席金融研究员王运金也对智通财经表示，11-12月有较大的政策利率和LPR的下调需求与下调空间，有望下调10-30个基点，五年期 LPR下调幅度可能会更大。 王运金解释称，下调LPR仍是激发融资需求、稳定楼市预期的重要政策工具。另外，10月美联储降息概率较大，中美利差会相对缓解，人民币贬值压力减 轻，LPR下调空间扩大。 不过王青指出，受贸易转移效应持续发酵、上年同期基数变化等影响，出口增速加快，再加上年初财政政策已经加力，5月央行实施降息降准，三季度以来 货币政策总体上处于观察期。这是近期LPR报价保持稳定的根本原因。 分析师表示，近期外 ...

图：央行 10月20日，最新LPR报价出炉，10月LPR报价依然不变，维持了5月以来的利率水平：5年期以上LPR为3.5%，上月为3.5%。1年期LPR为3%，上月为3%。 中信证券固定收益分析师赵诣指出，商业银行息差压力较大，未来逆回购利率引导LPR报价调降，或需存款利率先行走低。此外，三季度以来股市情绪较 好，降息等宽货币工具或有必要关注对市场情绪的合理引导。不排除降息降准等政策工具跟进落地的可能性。（详情） 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青预计，四季度央行有可能实施新一轮降息降准，并带动两个期限品种的LPR报价跟进下调。另外，预计四季度监管层有可能 通过单独引导5年期以上LPR报价下行等方式，推动居民房贷利率更大幅度下调。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged for five consecutive months, indicating a stable macroeconomic environment and a low necessity for further adjustments in the short term [2][4]. Summary by Sections LPR Rate Announcement - As of October 20, the 1-year LPR remains at 3%, and the 5-year LPR is at 3.5%, unchanged from previous rates [2]. Economic Context - The stability in LPR is attributed to a moderately strong macroeconomic performance in the first half of the year, reducing the urgency for rate cuts [4]. - PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng highlighted that China's economic growth continues to be among the highest globally, and the central bank will maintain a moderately loose monetary policy to support consumption and investment [4]. Future Expectations - Several institutions anticipate that the PBOC may implement new interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in the fourth quarter, which could lead to lower loan rates for businesses and households [4]. - This potential adjustment is seen as a crucial measure to stimulate domestic financing demand and counteract the slowdown in external demand [4]. A-Share Market Reaction - A table summarizing the A-share market performance following previous LPR adjustments indicates varying impacts on the Shanghai Composite Index, with some adjustments leading to positive returns over different time frames [5].