Group 1: Market Overview - The market is influenced by expectations of a "ceasefire" between the US and Iran, along with central bank liquidity measures, leading to fluctuations in oil and gold prices [1][10] - The US has proposed a 15-point negotiation plan to Iran, which includes dismantling nuclear capabilities and halting missile programs, in exchange for lifting sanctions [4][10] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has indicated that the current Middle East crisis is more severe than the oil crises of the 1970s, impacting energy prices significantly [1][10] Group 2: Commodity Insights - Oil prices have shown volatility, with Brent crude falling below $100 per barrel, while gold prices rebounded after a nine-day decline, reaching $4475 [1][10] - Copper prices increased by 0.68% due to tight supply conditions, although the overall demand remains weak in sectors like automotive and real estate [2][16] - The aluminum market is facing supply risks due to geopolitical tensions, with significant production cuts announced by major aluminum producers [18] Group 3: Financial Market Trends - US stock indices experienced slight declines, with market sentiment affected by the ongoing US-Iran conflict and rising inflation expectations due to high oil prices [2][7] - The financing balance in China decreased by 115.10 billion yuan, indicating cautious market sentiment during the earnings disclosure period [2][7] - The central bank in China is expected to maintain liquidity through various monetary policy tools, including MLF operations, to support the economy [8]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - Global financial markets experienced significant volatility due to escalating geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East, with the probability of a ceasefire before May 31 dropping to 50%[2] - The current earnings per share (EPS) growth for U.S. stocks remains strong, supporting the market despite geopolitical tensions, indicating that recent adjustments are more about timing than a trend reversal[2] - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for February showed a year-on-year increase of 3.4% and a month-on-month rise of 0.7%, both exceeding market expectations[10] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve maintained its policy interest rate, but Chairman Powell signaled a more hawkish stance than expected, emphasizing that rate cuts will not occur unless inflation shows progress[3] - The dot plot indicates only one expected rate cut in 2026, leading to a market adjustment in rate cut expectations, with current pricing suggesting rates will remain high throughout the year[3] - Historical trends suggest that U.S. economic and employment data may underperform in Q2, potentially allowing for a rate cut in the latter half of the year[3] Group 3: Risks and Market Sentiment - Risks from geopolitical conflicts could lead to further increases in oil prices, exacerbating global stagflation risks[4] - The labor market remains resilient, with initial jobless claims at 205,000, lower than both the previous figure and market expectations, indicating a lack of strong layoffs[10] - The NAHB housing market index for March recorded a slight increase to 38, still below the neutral level of 50, reflecting ongoing weakness in the real estate sector[10]

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals, including gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, are experiencing a significant decline in prices, marking a new low for the year, which has also impacted the stock and ETF markets [1][2][3]. Price Decline Details - Gold prices have seen a drastic drop, with the Shanghai Gold Exchange's Au99.99 contract closing down 11.23% on March 23, reaching a low of 911 yuan per gram, over 20% lower than its recent peak [3][4]. - Silver prices have plummeted even more, with the main silver futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropping over 13% on March 23, hitting a low of 15,070 yuan per kilogram, effectively halving from its yearly high [3][4]. - Platinum and palladium prices also fell sharply, with platinum futures dropping over 15% and palladium futures over 14% on March 23, both reaching new yearly lows [3][4]. Market Impact - The decline in precious metal prices has led to a significant drop in the Shenyin Wanguo Precious Metals Index, which fell 8.38% on March 23, with a cumulative decline of 20.75% since February [6]. - Stocks related to precious metals have also seen substantial declines, with companies like Hunan Silver and Zhaojin Gold experiencing over 40% pullbacks from their yearly highs [6][7]. - Major ETFs tracking precious metals have seen their scales shrink dramatically, with the Huaan Gold ETF dropping from 126.8 billion yuan to a loss of approximately 61 billion yuan over a few days [8]. Expert Analysis - According to Zhu Shanying, the escalation of geopolitical conflicts and strong energy prices have delayed interest rate cuts and worsened market risk appetite, which are key factors behind the recent adjustments in precious metal prices [10][11]. - In the short term, precious metals are expected to remain under pressure due to ongoing geopolitical tensions, but the long-term outlook remains bullish, driven by rising inflation expectations and potential stagflation risks [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Middle - East energy facilities attack has severely impacted the global energy supply, with a significant drop in the daily oil export volume from Middle - East countries [6]. - The Fed has maintained the federal funds rate target range, with a more conservative stance on future interest rate cuts, reflecting its cautious attitude in the face of multiple risks [7]. - For various commodities, different supply - demand situations and price trends are presented, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed [11][13][15]. - In the stock market, the A - share market is in an adjustment pattern, and investors are advised to manage positions and be cautious in trading [20][22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Chemicals - The prices of most chemical products rose on March 23, 2026, compared with March 22. For example, the price of coking coal increased by 92.50 to 1,263.50, with a growth rate of 7.899%; the price of coke increased by 72.0 to 1,812.50, with a growth rate of 4.137% [4]. 3.2 Macro - news - The attack on Iran's energy facilities by the US and Israel has led to a sharp increase in the risk of energy facilities in the Middle - East being attacked. Iran has announced counter - measures, and the conflict has had an unprecedented impact on global energy supply [6]. - The Fed has maintained the federal funds rate, with a more conservative interest - rate cut path, and has raised inflation and economic growth expectations [7]. - China will continue to communicate on Trump's visit to China, and has launched a second - round pilot project to extend the land contract for another 30 years [8]. 3.3 Main Variety Morning Meeting Views 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - **Sugar**: The near - month contract has limited upward space due to high domestic inventory, while the far - month contract may have opportunities to be deployed at low prices [11]. - **Corn**: The current price is in a high - level shock pattern, and it is recommended to wait and see cautiously [11]. - **Peanut**: The futures price is in a high - level narrow - range shock, and attention should be paid to the pressure around 8200 and the support at 8000 [11]. - **Pig**: The supply is abundant, the demand is weak, and the overall trend is weak [11]. - **Egg**: The spot price is stable, showing a pattern of near - strength and far - weakness, and short - term trading is recommended [13]. - **Jujube**: The market is in a seasonal consumption off - season, and the supply exceeds demand, and it is recommended to hold and pay attention to the previous low support [13]. - **Cotton**: In the short term, the price is suppressed, but in the long - term, it is supported by demand and planting area expectations, and it is recommended to buy on dips around 15000 [13]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: There is an expectation of stronger exports, but attention should be paid to the risk of near - month contract correction [13]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The production is at a relatively high level, and the price is supported. It is recommended to go long on dips [13][15]. - **Double - offset Paper**: The price has broken through the previous range, and attention should be paid to the support at 4100 and the pressure at 4200 [15]. - **Urea**: The supply is relatively sufficient, and the short - term price may face shock and pressure [15]. 3.3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The prices are in high - level shock, and attention should be paid to risks [15]. - **Copper and Aluminum**: The prices have followed the market correction, and it is recommended to wait for the price to stop falling and stabilize [15][16]. - **Alumina**: It is recommended to take a long - position approach on dips, and be vigilant against macro risks [16]. - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: The prices are strong in the short term, and it is recommended to go long at low prices [16]. - **Ferroalloy**: The short - term trend is strong, but it is not advisable to chase the rise at high levels [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is recommended to short on rallies, and pay attention to the pressure at 150000 [18]. 3.3.4 Option Finance - **Stock Index Options**: The A - share market is in an adjustment pattern. Trend investors can pay attention to the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can trade according to the price trend. It is not advisable to blindly chase the rise or kill the fall, and it is recommended to control positions [20][22].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; expecting government bonds to trade in a range [1] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal; range trading for rebar; selling out - of - the - money call options for glass [1] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Holding short positions moderately on copper at high prices; strengthening observation on aluminum; suggesting waiting and seeing on nickel; range trading for tin; expecting gold and silver to trade in a range; expecting lithium carbonate to trade in a range [1] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, and polyolefins are expected to be bullish with oscillations; shorting soda ash at high prices; buying rubber on dips without chasing highs; range trading for urea and methanol [1] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be bullish with oscillations; apples and jujubes are expected to trade in a range [1] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Adopting a bearish approach on rebounds for May and July live hog contracts, treating September contracts with a range - bound view; eggs are expected to trade in a range; corn is expected to trade in a short - term range; being cautious about chasing long on the May soybean meal contract; suggesting rolling long on oils and gradually reducing early long positions [1] Core Views - Geopolitical events such as the situation in the Middle East and policies of central banks and governments have significant impacts on the futures market, affecting market sentiment, supply - demand relationships, and price trends [5][6] - Different commodities have their own supply - demand characteristics, inventory situations, and cost factors, which together influence their price trends and investment strategies [8][9][13] Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Bearish in the short term due to geopolitical events and reduced market risk appetite, but bullish in the medium to long term, with a strategy of buying on dips [5] - **Government Bonds**: Expected to trade in a range, with short - term trends depending on bond allocation forces and medium - term trends on inflation and economic recovery expectations [6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Short - term trading is recommended. The inventory transfer of coking coal and coke is smooth, and the market is trading the substitution effect of coal for oil and gas, with short - term prices being bullish [8] - **Rebar**: Range trading is recommended. The futures price is undervalued, and the short - term price is expected to be bullish. Attention should be paid to the demand situation [9] - **Glass**: Selling out - of - the - money call options is suggested. The market is expected to be bearish with oscillations and may have a small rebound [10][11] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Holding short positions moderately at high prices is recommended. The price is under pressure from macro factors but is supported by domestic inventory reduction and the upcoming consumption season. Attention should be paid to the duration and intensity of the war, global recession expectations, and inventory reduction progress [13][14] - **Aluminum**: Strengthening observation is recommended. The price may continue to decline in the short term, and long positions can be considered after the market stabilizes, paying attention to the development of the Middle East situation [15] - **Nickel**: Waiting and seeing is recommended. The price is expected to be bullish with oscillations, with strong support from the ore end but weak demand and inventory accumulation [17] - **Tin**: Range trading is recommended. The price is expected to continue wide - range oscillations, and attention should be paid to supply resumption and downstream demand improvement [18] - **Gold and Silver**: Both are expected to trade in a range, and waiting and seeing is recommended [19][20] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Expected to trade in a range, with supply and demand both increasing and attention paid to export bans and supply disturbances [22] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Bullish with oscillations, with short - term trading within the ascending channel. Attention should be paid to policies, export situations, and raw material prices [23][25] - **Caustic Soda**: Bullish with oscillations. Strong rebounds are expected in the short term, and chasing highs should be cautious. Attention should be paid to geopolitical situations, supply - side maintenance, and downstream replenishment [26] - **Styrene**: Bullish with oscillations. Buying on dips without chasing highs is recommended. Attention should be paid to raw material prices, inventory, and downstream demand [27][28] - **Polyolefins**: Bullish with oscillations. Attention should be paid to downstream demand, inventory, the Iranian situation, and oil price fluctuations [29] - **Rubber**: Bullish with oscillations. Buying on dips without chasing highs is recommended. Attention should be paid to inventory, downstream demand, and market sentiment [30] - **Urea**: Bullish with oscillations and range trading is recommended. Attention should be paid to compound fertilizer production, device maintenance, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [32][33] - **Methanol**: Bullish with oscillations and range trading is recommended. The price may be pushed up in the short term due to supply shocks, and traditional downstream demand is weak [33][34] - **Soda Ash**: Shorting at high prices is recommended. The supply is expected to be high, and the price may continue to be under pressure in the short term [35] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Bullish with oscillations. The global cotton supply is increasing, and domestic consumption is strong. The price is expected to be bullish with oscillations [37] - **Apples**: Expected to trade in a range, with the market showing a two - tiered trading pattern [38] - **Jujubes**: Expected to trade in a range, with raw material acquisition based on quality and high enthusiasm for sellers to ship goods [39] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Hogs**: May and July contracts should be treated with a bearish approach on rebounds, and September contracts should be treated with a range - bound view. The short - term price is expected to bottom out, and the long - term price may rise with supply reduction [42] - **Eggs**: Expected to trade in a range. Short - term range - bound oscillations are expected, and attention should be paid to the timing of selling short on the near - term contracts [43] - **Corn**: Expected to trade in a short - term range. Attention should be paid to the circulation of high - quality grain in the Northeast, replenishment in North China, and wheat substitution [44] - **Soybean Meal**: Being cautious about chasing long on the May contract. Attention should be paid to soybean arrival rhythm, auctions, and oil prices [44][45] - **Oils**: Expected to be bullish with oscillations in the short term. Rolling long positions are recommended, and early long positions should be gradually reduced [46][50]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The current Middle East situation dominates the global financial market. With Trump issuing a 48 - hour warning to Iran and Iran's strong response, the military stand - off in the Strait of Hormuz is escalating. The short - term precious metals are expected to continue to be under pressure. However, if the US - Iran conflict persists, it will stimulate the dual attributes of gold as a safe - haven and anti - inflation asset, and the long - term trend of precious metals remains unchanged. Close attention should be paid to the changes in the US - Iran situation [4][11] - Last week, precious metal prices dropped significantly. The main reasons are that the US - Iran conflict led to a surge in energy prices, intensifying inflation expectations, and Trump's 48 - hour ultimatum to Iran increased market liquidity risks, suppressing precious metals. Additionally, the Fed's March interest - rate meeting sent a hawkish signal, the latest inflation data rebounded unexpectedly, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts was significantly postponed, also putting pressure on precious metals [5][8] Summary by Directory 1. Last Week's Trading Data - The prices of various precious metals in major markets dropped last week. For example, SHFE gold closed at 1039.22 yuan/gram, down 93.78 yuan or 8.28%; COMEX gold closed at 4492.00 dollars/ounce, down 531.10 dollars or 10.57%; SHFE silver closed at 17625 yuan/kilogram, down 4631 yuan or 20.81% [6] 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - The US - Iran conflict has lasted for over 20 days, spreading to the entire Middle East and escalating. Trump demands that Iran open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours and threatens to destroy its power plants. Iran responds that if its fuel and energy infrastructure is attacked, the US and its allies' energy infrastructure, information technology systems, and desalination facilities in the region will be targeted. The Pentagon is reported to be preparing to deploy ground troops to Iran, and the US is considering occupying or blockading Kharg Island. If Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz for a long time, energy prices will remain high, further pushing up inflation [5][8] - The Fed's March interest - rate meeting maintained the interest rate as expected, pointed out the uncertainty of the Middle East impact, and raised the inflation expectation. The economic forecast shows that the Fed may cut interest rates once this year. Different Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts. European Central Bank officials have sent hawkish signals, and major financial institutions expect 2 - 3 interest - rate hikes by the ECB this year [9] 3. Important Data Information - The US February PPI was 3.4% year - on - year, and the core PPI was 3.9%, exceeding market expectations, increasing inflation pressure and further squeezing the Fed's interest - rate cut space. War factors may further intensify inflation pressure [12] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 8000 to 205,000, a new low this year, indicating the resilience of the US labor market [12] - The central banks of the eurozone, the UK, and Japan maintained their interest rates but warned of the impact of rising oil prices on inflation [12] - Trump demanded that Iran fully open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours on the social platform "Truth Social" [12] 4. Relevant Data Charts - The gold total持仓 of ETF was 1056.99 tons on March 20, 2026, down 14.57 tons from last week. The silver持仓 of ishare was 15248.91 tons on March 20, 2026, down 211.27 tons from last month [13] - For gold futures, on March 17, 2026, non - commercial long positions were 215,961, non - commercial short positions were 56,092, and non - commercial net long positions were 159,869, a decrease of 3263 from last week. For silver futures, on March 17, 2026, non - commercial long positions were 31,125, non - commercial short positions were 9244, and non - commercial net long positions were 21,881, a decrease of 2697 from last week [16]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures broke through support and declined. Macroeconomic factors, such as the unexpected rebound of the US PPI in February, the hawkish stance of Powell after the Fed's interest - rate meeting, and the escalating US - Iran conflict, put pressure on market sentiment. Domestically, the economic data from January to February was positive, and there was an expectation of loose monetary policy. Fundamentally, LME zinc inventory increased, weakening the support from the de - stocking logic. European smelters did not cut production despite the rising natural gas prices. In China, raw materials were in short supply but not critically scarce, and smelter production was stable with an increasing trend. On the demand side, the operating rates of galvanizing, alloy, and zinc oxide enterprises showed different degrees of improvement, but terminal orders were limited. However, the decline in zinc prices led to more price - fixing by downstream buyers, and inventory showed a turning point. Overall, macro factors dominate the zinc price trend. The continuous fermentation of the Middle - East situation has increased concerns about energy and the supply chain, and the inflation expectation has suppressed the expectation of interest - rate cuts while increasing the pressure of economic downturn. The fundamental support is weak, and in the short term, it is expected that zinc prices will remain under pressure and operate weakly [3][10][11] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Trading Data - The price of SHFE zinc decreased from 24,140 yuan/ton on March 13th to 22,935 yuan/ton on March 20th, a decline of 1205 yuan/ton. The price of LME zinc dropped from 3293.5 dollars/ton to 3056 dollars/ton, a decrease of 237.5 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio rose from 7.33 to 7.50. The inventory of SHFE increased by 39,027 tons to 126,052 tons, and the LME inventory increased by 19,775 tons to 117,675 tons. The social inventory decreased by 0.27 million tons to 26.61 million tons. The spot premium increased by 30 yuan/ton to - 90 yuan/ton [4] 2. Market Review - The main contract of Shanghai zinc, ZN2605, broke through support and declined last week. The Fed's hawkish signal and the deterioration of the Middle - East situation led to a panic in the market, and the zinc price in the non - ferrous metals sector had a large decline. With the easing of market sentiment on Friday, the zinc price stabilized and rebounded weakly. The weekly decline of Shanghai zinc was 5.17%, and that of LME zinc was 7.21%. In the spot market, as the zinc price fell, downstream buyers increased price - fixing, and the spot discount narrowed with slightly improved trading volume [5][6] 3. Industry News - On March 20, 2026, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee remained flat at 1550 yuan/metal ton, and the imported ore processing fee decreased by 6.02 dollars/dry ton to 5.23 dollars/dry ton. The 100,000 - ton project of Guizhou Duyun Daliang Zinc Mine was put into production. From January to February 2026, the cumulative import volume of zinc concentrate increased by 17.54% year - on - year to 100.88 million tons. The cumulative import volume of refined zinc decreased by 61% year - on - year to 28,631 tons, and the cumulative export volume increased by 12.78% year - on - year to 5885 tons. The cumulative export volume of galvanized sheets decreased by 0.14% year - on - year to 209.42 million tons, and the cumulative export volume of die - casting zinc alloy increased by 0.9% year - on - year to 689.33 tons [12] 4. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trend charts of Shanghai and LME zinc, the internal and external price ratio chart, the spot premium chart, the LME premium chart, the inventory charts of SHFE, LME, bonded areas, and social inventory, the zinc ore processing fee chart, the zinc ore import profit and loss chart, the domestic refined zinc production chart, the smelter profit chart, the refined zinc net import chart, and the downstream primary enterprise operating rate chart [13][17][21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the metals and new materials industry [2] Core Insights - The report highlights significant volatility in the sector due to ongoing geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, impacting market performance and pricing [4][5] - The precious metals sector is expected to experience price fluctuations in the short term, with a long-term upward trend anticipated due to structural changes in monetary policy and increased central bank gold purchases [4][23] - Industrial metals are projected to see a price increase driven by stable demand from infrastructure investments and AI data centers, despite short-term pressures from geopolitical tensions [4][35] Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.38%, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 2.90%, and the CSI 300 Index dropped by 2.19%. The non-ferrous metals index fell by 11.82%, underperforming the CSI 300 by 9.63 percentage points [4][5] - Precious metals saw a decline of 10.73%, aluminum dropped by 15.67%, and copper fell by 11.72% week-on-week [9] Price Changes - Industrial metals and precious metals prices decreased significantly, with LME copper down by 6.69% and COMEX gold down by 10.57% [4][15] - Lithium prices also saw a decline, with battery-grade lithium carbonate down by 6.65% [19] Precious Metals - The report notes that the gold price is expected to rise in the long term due to low current gold reserves in China and ongoing central bank purchases [4][23] - The gold-silver ratio is currently at a high level, indicating potential for convergence as demand recovers [4][24] Industrial Metals - Copper demand is recovering quickly after price declines, with significant investments expected in the electric grid and AI sectors [4][35] - The aluminum sector is experiencing a tightening supply-demand balance, with production capacity constraints expected to drive prices higher [4][50] Key Company Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and growth potential, such as Zijin Mining, Yunnan Tin, and China Aluminum [20][22]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights that the industrial value added in China grew by 6.3% year-on-year in January-February, indicating a strong start for the national economy [1][15] - The U.S. PPI inflation exceeded expectations, leading to a slowdown in interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve [2][18] - The Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate unchanged, with projections indicating one potential rate cut within the year [3][19] - After a significant drop, the price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide rebounded, ending a 14-day decline of over 21% [4][21] Summary by Sections Market Review - The non-ferrous metals sector underperformed, with a decline of 11.82% during the week, significantly lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index [9] - Key individual stocks showed varied performance, with Yunnan Zhenye slightly up by 0.23%, while China Aluminum and Yun Aluminum saw declines exceeding 18% [9][11] Key Focus Areas & Metal Prices - **Industrial Metals**: Geopolitical tensions are escalating, increasing the risk of electrolytic aluminum plant shutdowns. Copper prices fell by 7.07% to $11,834.50/ton, while aluminum prices dropped by 7.18% to $3,192.00/ton [22][24] - **Precious Metals**: Rising oil prices due to conflicts have raised inflation concerns, leading to a recent pullback in gold prices, which fell by 10.57% to $4,492.00/oz [35][36] - **Energy Metals**: Lithium carbonate prices decreased by 5.95% to 147,500 yuan/ton, while cobalt prices remained stable around 432,000 yuan/ton [39][40] - **Strategic Metals**: After a significant drop, praseodymium prices rebounded, with the average price at 781,400 yuan/ton, down 10.62% week-on-week [45] Core View Updates and Key Stock Tracking - **Industrial Metals**: The report suggests focusing on integrated companies in the aluminum sector, such as China Hongqiao, and highlights the potential for copper prices to rise due to supply disruptions [48] - **Precious Metals**: The ongoing trend of central banks purchasing gold indicates its importance as a long-term asset, with recommendations for stocks like Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining [49] - **Strategic Metals**: The report anticipates a potential increase in domestic strategic metal prices due to easing export restrictions, with a focus on cobalt and tungsten sectors [49]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - If Dalio's "ultimate battle" view becomes a consensus in the financial market, it will profoundly impact future global asset allocation. If the US fails to control the Strait of Hormuz, it will be negative for the US dollar, US Treasuries, and even the US stock market. Conversely, if the US seizes control of the Strait of Hormuz, it will be positive for the US dollar, US Treasuries, and support the valuation of the US stock market. The situation for gold is more complex. If the US seizes control, although inflation decline may restart interest rate cuts, it may not be sufficient to drive gold prices back into a continuous upward trend. If the US fails to control the strait, although the suspension of interest rate cuts will put short - term pressure on gold prices, the logic of reserve asset substitution may drive gold prices back up after inflation pressure is fully released [3]. Summary by Directory High - frequency Data Scanning - Dalio's "ultimate battle" view in the Strait of Hormuz, if it becomes a consensus, will affect global asset allocation. The US Marine Corps Expeditionary Force is expected to arrive in the Middle East in about a week and may seize Iranian islands near the Strait of Hormuz. The outcome of the island - seizure operation may be indicative of the "ultimate battle." This week (the week of March 21), the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 3.40% week - on - week and 22.42% year - on - year; the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables decreased by 2.40% week - on - week and increased by 1.12% year - on - year. In the week of March 13, the edible agricultural product price index decreased by 1.10% week - on - week and increased by 2.11% year - on - year. The domestic cement price index increased by 1.64% week - on - week; the operating rate of coking enterprises with a capacity of over 200 tons decreased by 0.03% week - on - week; the rebar inventory index decreased by 0.20% week - on - week; the rebar price index increased by 0.48% week - on - week; the blast furnace operating rate of 247 domestic steel mills increased by 1.84% week - on - week. In the week of March 13, the production material price index increased by 2.00% week - on - week and 4.58% year - on - year [1][3]. High - frequency Data Panoramic Scanning - The report presents multiple charts showing various high - frequency data, including the relationship between US stocks and bonds, the relationship between gold prices and US Treasury yields, and the week - on - week changes of high - frequency data. For example, in the week - on - week change of high - frequency data, the average wholesale price of pork decreased by 3.40% week - on - week, the edible agricultural product price index decreased by 1.10% week - on - week, and the production material price index increased by 2.00% week - on - week [11][12][16]. Comparison of High - frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicators - Multiple charts show the relationship between high - frequency data and important macroeconomic indicators, such as the relationship between the year - on - year change of copper spot price and the year - on - year change of industrial added value (+ year - on - year change of PPI), the relationship between the year - on - year change of daily crude steel output and the year - on - year change of industrial added value, etc. [20][21][23]. Important High - frequency Indicators in the US, Europe, and Japan - The report shows charts of important high - frequency indicators in the US, Europe, and Japan, including the US weekly economic indicators and actual economic growth rate, the first - week unemployment claims and unemployment rate in the US, etc. [88][90][92]. Seasonal Trends of High - frequency Data - The report presents the seasonal trends of high - frequency data through multiple charts, such as the seasonal trends of daily crude steel output (ten - day average), production material price index, etc. [100][102][105]. High - frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - The report shows the year - on - year changes of subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen through charts [146][148][151].