1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore price is expected to decline, but there is still support from the macro - level. As the enthusiasm for chasing commodity prices fades and profit - taking accelerates, the iron ore price has fallen from its high. However, the macro - level expectations and the pre - Spring Festival restocking demand may provide some support, and investors should be wary of upward price drivers that deviate from fundamentals [3][5] 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - Overseas overall iron ore shipments are at a high level year - on - year, but Brazilian shipments have declined both year - on - year and month - on - month, showing a moderately weak performance. The freight rates from Australia and Brazil to China have been continuously falling recently [5] - The four major mainstream mines' shipments at the beginning of the year are moderately strong. For example, Vale's global shipments have increased by 19.0% year - to - date [4] - After months, Ukraine has resumed overseas shipments. The capacity utilization rate of domestic mines in the southwest region has rebounded, driving the overall operation of domestic mines to improve [20][28] 3.2 Demand - The blast furnace operation rate has decreased month - on - month but remains relatively high compared to the same period last year. The pre - Spring Festival restocking demand from downstream industries may support the molten iron production to some extent [5][31] - The substitution effect of scrap steel is limited. The price of iron ore has only a limited decline, and the scrap - iron price difference has rebounded slightly from a low level, but the overall level is still around zero [32] 3.3 Macro - level - The People's Bank of China has decided to lower the re - loan and re - discount rates, reigniting the market's expectation of interest rate cuts. In the short term, there is still some support for the valuation of domestic risk assets [5] 3.4 Iron Ore Contract Performance - The price of the main 05 contract has weakened in a volatile manner, closing at 812.00 yuan/ton. The position is 648,900 lots, an increase of 9,000 lots week - on - week. The average daily trading volume is 266,200 lots, a decrease of 75,100 lots week - on - week [7] 3.5 Spot Price Performance - The price of medium - grade iron ore remains relatively firm with a small decline. For example, the price of PB powder (61.5%) has decreased by 7 yuan/ton week - on - week [11] 3.6 Inventory - There is an obvious differentiation between port inventory and steel mill raw material inventory. Structurally, the powder ore inventory is significantly high [36][38] 3.7 Downstream Profit - The decline in raw material futures prices has helped to repair the on - paper profit. For example, the spot profit of hot - rolled coils and the on - paper profit of screw steel and coil steel have shown certain changes [40] 3.8 Spot Category Price Difference - The upward momentum of imported medium - grade powder ore has weakened, and the price difference between domestic iron ore concentrate and PB powder has rebounded from a low level [42] 3.9 Futures Month - to - Month Spread - During the recent price decline, the price of the near - month main contract has fallen more, and the 5 - 9 spread has continued to narrow compared to last year [44] 3.10 Basis Performance - With the decline in futures prices, the basis has strengthened slightly month - on - month [45]

铜行业周报 2026/01/16 基本面信息2：美国通胀降温强化降息预期，新能源与AI基建需求长期提振铜消费。 基本面信息3：铜社会库存持续累库，现货贴水扩大，反映下游对高价接受度低。 基本面信息4：美拟对与伊朗贸易国加征25%关税，引发市场对铜贸易流扰动及需求回落的担忧。 观点：多空因素交织，铜价高位震荡。矿端紧缺和海外偏强基本面形成支撑，但国内累库及政策风险限制上行空间。 铜期货盘面数据（周度） | 盘面数据 | 最新价 | 周涨跌 | 持仓 | 持仓周涨跌 | 成交 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铜主力 | 100770 | -0.63% | 225933 | 37259 | 322422 | | 沪铜指数加权 | 100799 | -0.64% | 683376 | -7461 | 643234 | | 国际铜 | 91520 | 1.52% | 7136 | -267 | 12196 | | LME铜3个月 | 13148.5 | 3.52% | 239014 | -38282 | 65624 | | COMEX铜 | 599.15 | 3.1 ...

近日市场因韧性十足的劳动力市场数据以及通胀粘性对于美联储降息预期明显降温之际，美联储官员们 最新讲话所释放出的集体鹰派立场可谓令降息预期更加萎靡。货币政策立场长期以来温和鹰派的美联储 副主席菲利普.杰斐逊表示，基准利率已经非常接近既不刺激也不放缓经济的水平——这句话意味着在 副主席杰斐逊看来在2026年降息并不具备紧迫性，他强调，这使得美联储官员们能够在应对不断变化的 经济风险时处于有利位置。 近期多位美联储官员表达对于2026年货币政策的鹰派立场之际，正值"降息交易"主题就已经开始呈现出 明显的疲软态势。自12月的多项劳动力市场统计数据公布以来，叠加最新公布的11月PPI与12月CPI显示 美国通胀降温节奏缓慢，以及最新公布的美国零售销售额数据实现超预期增长，利率期货交易员们对于 美联储2026年降息预期可谓持续降温。 "CME美联储观察工具"显示，利率期货市场交易员们当前对于2026年美联储降息押注从2025年底曾经 定价的降息三次预期缩减至降息两次，且交易员们普遍押注2026年首次降息时机为6月，而不是此前押 注的3月。不过，"CME美联储观察工具"显示出的交易员降息预期仍然高于FOMC点阵图中值所显示 ...

最热美联储主席人选生变，打击市场的降息预期，美债跌，美股三大指数盘中下跌、收盘微跌，小盘股跑赢大盘。 华尔街见闻提及，最热美联储主席人选生变！特朗普称希望哈塞特继续担任白宫顾问。特朗普的这番表态后，分析人士立即猜测，沃什成为下任美联储主席 这一职位的领跑者。 在特朗普发表上述言论后，美元从盘中低点反弹、小幅走高，而股市则由涨转跌。最终罗素2000指数涨0.1%，连续第11个交易日跑赢标普500。全周标普 500累计微跌0.4%。 如果非要在两位凯文之间选一个，我会选哈塞特而不是沃什。我们知道，凯文·沃什的整个职业生涯都持鹰派立场。 特朗普提及联储主席人选后，年内降息预期进一步下挫。文艺复兴宏观研究公司的Neil Dutta表示： 费城半导体指数上涨约1.1%，盘中刷新历史新高，显著跑赢大盘。台积电等权重个股走强，使得纳指跌幅受限。分析认为，周末假期前宏观不确定性仍高 的环境下，资金继续集中在订单和盈利确定性最高的半导体链条，而不是向更广泛的科技或软件板块扩散。 全周科技七姐妹表现则再次落后于标普493，金融板块本周表现不佳。 降息预期走低后10年期美债收益率走高5个基点，对政策敏感的2年期美债收益率上行约3个 ...

黄金方面： 近期贵金属市场仅在周一和周二出现了较为明确的趋势行情，随后市场陷入震荡，主要推手是当前市场陷入共识疲劳，年初市 场共识一直看涨，而现在市场跌幅有限，是在等待新一轮的市场变化。 虽然特朗普表示，伊朗在镇压抗议活动中的行为正在缓解，暗示可能采取观望态度。但是受到特朗普一贯政策左右改变的影 响，现在市场不敢断定，美国一定不会干预伊朗的局势，仍有变数。 百利好特约智昇研究投资策略师麦东认为，近期伊朗问题的缓解，一定程度上削弱了黄金的避险属性，金价有所回落。但是跌 幅有限，一定程度上又反映了，市场处在共识疲劳期，仍需要等待确定的答案。 技术面分析：昨日收十字线。日线级别，金价维持在4600美元附近震荡。1小时级别，价格跌破60日均线，向下试探120日均 线，市场处于弱转势阶段。今日多空分水岭在4575美元一线，关注市场在此的变化。 原油方面： 随着委内瑞拉原油改革推进，更多的原油供应进入市场。在美国介入后，北美生产商可能会急于通过整合来对冲油价的下行风 险。在当前低油价环境下，规模效应可以降低成本。2026年，全球原油仍会面临过剩压力。 地缘政治对油价的影响是阶段性的，在库存压力逐步走高的背景下，原油大概率 ...

从走势表现来看，作为聚焦上游资源领域的指数，因中证有色金属矿业指数行业配置多元，长期表现优 于其他有色金属指数。过去5年，中证有色金属矿业指数上涨了106.32%，超过同期细分有色指数 （95.08%）、中证有色指数（93.60%）、国证有色指数（93.06%）。估值水平方面，中证有色金属矿 业指数市盈率为28.94倍，低于近10年平均值（37.32倍），具有较好的投资性价比。（数据来源： Wind，指数涨幅统计区间：2021/1/7-2026/1/6，指数估值统计区间：2016/1/7-2026/1/6） 2025年受全球主要央行货币政策转向边际宽松，以及能源转型与电网投资加码影响，有色金属迎来"金 融属性"与"商品属性"的罕见共振。其中聚焦于产业链上游稀缺资源的有色矿业板块表现较强，中证有 色金属矿业指数2025年上涨104.84%。2026开年该行业靓丽表现再度成为市场热议主题，引来不少投资 者下场布局。（数据来源：Wind，截至2025/12/31） 在当前供需与地缘因素共同推升上游资源价值的背景下，聚焦产业链源头成为把握行业机遇的关键。记 者获悉，正在发行的景顺长城中证有色金属矿业主题ETF（简称" ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Precious Metals Market Weekly Report" [2] - Date: January 16, 2026 [2] - Authors: Researcher Liao Hongbin, Assistant Researcher Xu Dingfeng [3] Group 2: Weekly Key Points Summary - Tariff situation heats up as the US will impose a 25% ad - valorem import tariff on some imported semiconductors, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and derivatives from January 15, 2026, which may marginally increase the risk - aversion premium [5] - US PPI and core PPI in November 2025 both rose 3% year - on - year, higher than the market expectation of 2.7%, with rising energy costs being the main driver [5] - The US Department of Justice plans to conduct a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, but Trump has no plan to fire him, easing market concerns [5] - The December non - farm payrolls were less than expected, indicating a cooling US labor market, leading traders to expect three interest rate cuts this year, possibly starting before May [5] - The Middle East situation has a temporary easing, but geopolitical risks remain high due to Iran's threat to US military bases and sporadic escalation in the Russia - Ukraine front [5] - In the medium term, the bullish logic for precious metals remains unchanged, and it's advisable to buy on dips in the long - term, while being cautious of short - term corrections [5] - The resistance level for London Gold is 4650 US dollars per ounce, and the support level is 4300 US dollars per ounce; for London Silver, the resistance level is 95 US dollars per ounce, and the support level is 70 US dollars per ounce [5] Group 3: Futures and Spot Market - The precious metals market continued to be strong this week, with a continuous short - squeeze in the silver market [6] - As of January 16, 2026, the Shanghai Silver main contract 2604 closed at 22,483 yuan per kilogram, up 20.03% for the week; the Shanghai Gold main contract 2604 closed at 1,032.32 yuan per gram, up 2.57% for the week [10] - This week, the net position of foreign gold ETFs increased, while that of silver decreased. As of January 15, 2026, the SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 1,074.80 tons, up 0.72% month - on - month; the SLV Silver ETF holdings were 16,062 tons, down 0.90% month - on - month [11][15] - As of January 6, 2025 (the latest), both COMEX gold and silver net long positions decreased. The COMEX gold net position was 227,632 contracts, down 1.50% month - on - month; the COMEX silver net position was 29,271 contracts, down 2.63% month - on - month [16][20] - This week, the basis of gold and silver weakened. As of January 15, 2026, the basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract was - 6.74 yuan per gram, with a basis rate of - 0.65%; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract was - 210 yuan per kilogram, with a basis rate of - 0.93% [21][23] - This week, the gold and silver inventories in domestic and foreign exchanges decreased. As of January 15, 2026, the COMEX gold inventory was 36,132,901.14 ounces, down 0.70% month - on - month; the SHFE gold inventory was 97,653 kilograms, down 0.05% month - on - month; the COMEX silver inventory was 435,671,453 ounces, down 3.0% month - on - month; the SHFE silver inventory was 620,262 kilograms, down 10.30% month - on - month [24][28] Group 4: Silver Industry Situation - As of November 2025, the import volume of silver and silver ore sand increased. The import volume of Chinese silver was 263,505.88 kilograms, up 9.90% month - on - month; the import volume of silver ore sand and its concentrates was 180,915,984 kilograms, up 21.23% month - on - month [30][34] - Due to the increasing demand for silver in the semiconductor industry, the production of integrated circuits has been rising, and the year - on - year growth rate has stabilized. As of November 2025, the monthly production of integrated circuits was 4,390,000 pieces, with a year - on - year growth rate of 15.6% [36][40] Group 5: Silver Supply and Demand - The silver supply and demand are in a tight - balance situation. As of the end of 2024, the industrial demand for silver was 680.5 million ounces, up 4% year - on - year; the demand for coins and net bars was 190.9 million ounces, down 22% year - on - year; the net investment demand for silver ETFs was 61.6 million ounces, compared with - 37.6 million ounces in the same period of the previous year; the total demand for silver was 1,164.1 million ounces, down 3% year - on - year [42][44] - In 2025, the improvement in silver supply and demand was due to the recovery of mine production and a slight increase in recycled silver, while the investment and industrial demand declined slightly, significantly narrowing the market shortage. As of the end of 2024, the silver supply - demand gap was - 148.9 million ounces, down 26% month - on - month. The World Silver Institute predicted that the global total silver supply in 2025 would increase by 3% to about 1,050 million ounces; the global total silver demand would decrease by 4% year - on - year to about 1,120 million ounces; the supply - demand gap in 2025 was expected to narrow to about - 70 million ounces, a decrease of about 53% month - on - month [48][50] Group 6: Gold Supply and Demand - The investment demand for gold ETFs has increased significantly, and central banks of emerging countries continue to buy gold [52] Group 7: Macroeconomic Data - This week, the US dollar index continued to rebound from the low level within the oscillation range [56] - This week, the 10Y - 2Y US Treasury yield spread widened slightly, and the CBOE gold volatility decreased [61] - This week, the US inflation - balanced interest rate rebounded slightly [65] - In January 2026, the central banks of China and Turkey continued to buy about 0.93 tons and 3.0 tons of gold respectively [69]

周五亚洲交易时段，美元/瑞士法郎汇率震荡整理，交投于0.8020附近，前一交易日涨幅尽数回吐。 对美元/瑞士法郎来说，美元端支撑力度与瑞士法郎走势压力形成博弈。瑞士法郎走势受市场情绪及美元强弱传导影响较深，当前市场情绪平稳，叠加美联 储政策预期边际变化，兑美元面临一定压力。 美联储政策稳定性获市场明确信号，相关表态缓解了政策不确定性引发的波动，对市场情绪形成积极影响。政策稳定性预期可减少市场资金避险流动，间接 影响美元与瑞士法郎汇率走势。 后续市场将重点关注两项核心线索，校准对美联储政策及美元走势的判断。 一是美国12月工业生产数据，反映美国工业运行情况，为经济基本面强弱提供佐证； 市场对美国联邦储备系统（以下简称"美联储"）政策前景的谨慎情绪升温，美元有望获得阶段性支撑，限制该货币对下行空间，短期走势由美联储政策预期 主导。 美国初次失业救济金领取人数数据强化了美联储未来数月维持现有利率水平的预期。CME Group的FedWatch工具显示，联邦基金期货市场数据表明，美联储 在1月27日至28日货币政策会议上维持利率不变的概率升至约95%，市场对短期利率调整的预期持续降温。 联邦基金期货市场已将美联储下次 ...

在去年的降息潮后，目前的基准利率维持在3.5%-3.75%区间。保尔森明确表示："现阶段利率仍略高于中性水平，这有助于完成压低通胀的'最后一公里'任 务。" 这意味着，在即将到来的1月27-28日议息会议上，美联储大概率将维持现状。对于黄金而言，利率维持在高位意味着持有黄金的"机会成本"依然昂贵。阿萨 交易学社分析师 Eden 指出："票委们不急于降息，实质上是给美元'打气'，这会在短期内形成黄金上行的天花板，多头行情可能陷入休整。" 进入2026年，全球市场的目光再次聚焦于华盛顿。近期，费城联储主席保尔森（Anna Paulson）的一系列表态，为今年的货币政策逻辑定下了基调：稳健、 谨慎且不急于求成。 作为今年美联储议息会议（FOMC）的正式投票委员，保尔森在采访中对鲍威尔的领导力表达了高度赞赏。 这种内部的团结信号，对处于高位震荡的黄金市场而言，无疑释放了复杂的压力信号。阿萨交易学社分析师团队认为，投资者需警惕"降息预期推迟"带来的 短期价格修正。 一、 3.5%的利率将维持多久？ 三、 通胀缓解 vs 定价权博弈 目前，通胀正向2%的目标实质性回落。保尔森观察到，企业在年初的定价行为变得非常谨慎，竞争 ...

期货市场交易指引 2026 年 01 月 16 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 短线交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 逢高做空 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 低位谨慎持多，滚动操作 | | ◆铝： | 建议加强观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 偏强运行 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 区间震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 低多思路 | | ◆烧碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡调整 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆红枣： | 触底返弹 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 近月逢高滚 ...