Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the construction and decoration industry, emphasizing long-term growth logic, low valuations, and high dividend yields [12][15][22]. Core Viewpoints - The market has been characterized by a "high cut low" trend since the fourth quarter, with the dividend index rising by 8.3% from early October, significantly outperforming major indices [2][15]. - The construction sector has shown significant underperformance year-to-date, with a rise of only 11.6%, ranking 23rd among 30 industries, while valuations remain at historical lows [2][22]. - Key investment directions include overseas expansion driven by urbanization and industrialization in emerging markets, and regional economic support in areas like Sichuan and Xinjiang [3][7][15]. Summary by Sections Overseas Demand and Expansion - The report highlights the sustained high demand for overseas construction, driven by urbanization and industrialization in emerging countries, such as Saudi Arabia's "Vision 2030" and various infrastructure investment plans in Southeast Asia [3][24]. - Chinese companies are accelerating their overseas operations, with 3,667 A-share companies disclosing overseas revenue, totaling 9.52 trillion yuan, a 56.58% increase from 2020 [3][27]. - Recommended companies benefiting from this trend include China Chemical Engineering, Jinggong Steel Structure, Jianghe Group, and China National Materials [6][15][22]. Regional Economic Opportunities - The report identifies Sichuan, Xinjiang, and Tibet as regions likely to receive significant policy support, with Sichuan positioned as a strategic hub for national development [7][29]. - Investment in Xinjiang's coal chemical industry is projected to accelerate, with estimated annual investments of 690 billion yuan in 2025, 1,293 billion yuan in 2026, and 2,156 billion yuan in 2027 [7][30]. - Key companies recommended in this context include Sichuan Road and Bridge, China Chemical Engineering, Sanwei Chemical, and Donghua Technology [7][15][35]. High Dividend Yield Opportunities - Many recommended companies have committed to high dividend payouts, with Sichuan Road and Bridge promising a minimum payout ratio of 60% from 2025 to 2027, and Jinggong Steel Structure committing to at least 70% [8][35]. - Expected dividend yields for 2026 are projected at 6.6% for Sichuan Road and Bridge, 6.3% for Jinggong Steel Structure, and 5.4% for China National Materials, indicating strong investment appeal [8][35]. Semiconductor Cleanroom Sector - The report notes that the AI development wave is driving demand for semiconductor cleanrooms, with global investment expected to reach 168 billion yuan by 2025 [9][35]. - Key players in this sector include Yaxin Integration, Shenghui Integration, and Bocheng Co., which are positioned to benefit from the expanding market [9][35]. Commercial Satellite Sector - The report emphasizes the increasing support for the commercial aerospace industry, with a focus on low-orbit satellite constellations and a projected surge in satellite launches starting next year [10][11]. - Recommended companies in this area include Shanghai Port Bay, which is expected to benefit from the increase in launch activities [10][11].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The A-share market is influenced by both endogenous factors (institutional KPI assessments, position adjustments) and external factors (concerns over U.S. government shutdown, adjustments in North American tech stocks) [1][2][5] - The overall performance of the A-share market shows resilience, outperforming U.S. stocks and other Asia-Pacific markets [6] Key Points and Arguments A-share Market Performance - The A-share market experienced a reduction in trading volume, with average daily turnover decreasing by over 300 billion yuan compared to the previous week [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index attempted to return to the 4,000-point mark but struggled due to insufficient trading volume [2][6] Endogenous Factors - Institutional funds shifted from offensive to defensive strategies due to KPI assessments in November, leading to profit-taking [3] - Adjustments in positions based on quarterly holdings have weakened the upward momentum in the tech hardware sector [3] External Factors - Concerns over a potential liquidity crisis due to the U.S. government shutdown and the adjustment of North American tech stocks have heightened market fears [5] - Notable events, such as Michael Burry shorting Nvidia and Palantir, have contributed to negative sentiment in the tech sector [5] Sector-Specific Insights New Energy Sector - The new energy sector has shown strong performance but has limited ability to attract new capital, leading to a stop-and-go market behavior [7][8] - The release of the carbon peak and carbon neutrality white paper by the State Council has provided positive support for the new energy sector [8] Cyclical and Anti-Inflation Sectors - Cyclical sectors, such as oil, have regained attention due to OPEC's production adjustments, which provide price protection [9] - The PTA industry has also seen increased interest due to improved market conditions and expectations of coordinated production cuts [10] Phosphate Chemical Industry - The phosphate chemical industry benefits from supply-demand dynamics, with demand linked to the lithium battery sector [10] Nonferrous Metals Sector - The nonferrous metals sector is experiencing a high-cut-low trend, with a focus shifting towards electrolytic aluminum due to inventory depletion and tight power supply [11] Storage Sector - The storage sector's performance is independent of the overall semiconductor industry, driven by a storage demand cycle and AI-related needs [12] Future Market Trends and Investment Directions - The mid-term outlook remains positive for the A-share market, supported by policy stability, asset scarcity, and potential U.S. interest rate cuts [4][13] - Suggested areas of focus include traditional industries with high-quality development, such as real estate, steel, and cement, as well as frontier industries like nuclear energy and commercial aerospace [13] - Continued attention to the semiconductor industry is recommended due to policy support and growth opportunities [13] Additional Considerations - The October inflation data was better than expected, suggesting a slightly optimistic outlook for consumer goods and certain PPI categories [16] - Potential policy changes in the real estate market could stimulate demand and stabilize prices, which is crucial for achieving high-quality development [14][15]

Group 1 - The North Exchange 50 index decreased by 3.79%, but trading volume remained above 20 billion, showing an increase from the previous 17 billion [8][19] - The market adjustment was a natural pullback after a previous policy-driven surge, with a focus on sectors like electricity, chemicals, photovoltaics, lithium batteries, and energy storage, which performed well [8][9] - The themes of anti-involution and price increases are spreading, aligning with market demands for "high cuts and low" [9][10] Group 2 - The North Exchange's PE (TTM) average is 89.33 times, with a median of 44.73 times, indicating a decrease in valuation [22][30] - The trading volume for the week was 4.922 billion shares, a decrease of 17.23% from the previous week, while the trading amount was 113.591 billion yuan, down 21.37% [26][19] - The margin financing balance increased to 7.951 billion yuan, up by 0.47 billion yuan from the previous week [28][19] Group 3 - Two new stocks were listed this week: Danna Biological and Zhongcheng Consulting, with significant first-day price increases of 497.08% and 170.08% respectively [32][33] - As of November 7, 2025, there are 282 companies listed on the North Exchange [32] - Next week, one company (Nante Technology) is scheduled for subscription, and two companies (Tongbao Optoelectronics, Agricultural University Technology) are set for review [37] Group 4 - Among the North Exchange stocks, 52 increased while 229 decreased, resulting in a rise-fall ratio of 0.23 [40] - The top gainers included Caneng Electric (+31.13%) and Anda Technology (+20.38%) [41][40] - The top five stocks by turnover rate were Caneng Electric, Jinhua New Materials, and Deer Chemical, indicating high trading activity [46]

证券研究报告 高切低视角，哪些产业值得关注？ ——每周主题、产业趋势交易复盘和展望 证券分析师：陈刚 执业证书编号：S0600523040001 邮箱：cheng@dwzq.com.cn 研究助理：孔思迈 执业证书编号：S0600124070019 邮箱：kongsm@dwzq.com.cn 2025年11月9日 注：本报告所涉及个股/公司仅代表与产业或交易热点有关联，所引述资讯/数据/观点仅以展示为目的，不构成投资建议，个股层面请参照东吴证券研究所各行业组所推荐标的。 目录 1、本周市场回顾 2、产业趋势交易回顾与展望 3、风险提示 2 注：本报告所涉及个股/公司仅代表与产业或交易热点有关联，所引述资讯/数据/观点仅以展示为目的，不构成投资建议，个股层面请参照东吴证券研究所各行业组所推荐标的。 1. 本周市场回顾 注：本周交易日为11月3日-11月7日 （如无特殊说明）后文同 3 注：本报告所涉及个股/公司仅代表与产业或交易热点有关联，所引述资讯/数据/观点仅以展示为目的，不构成投资建议，个股层面请参照东吴证券研究所各行业组所推荐标的。 一：大盘表现 ✓ 上证指数走势 4 注：本报告所涉及个股/公司仅代表与 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of "high cut low," which refers to the investment strategy of selling high-performing stocks (often in technology) and buying undervalued stocks that have potential for recovery, particularly in sectors like dividends, consumption, and parts of AI [3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The phenomenon of "high cut low" is likened to a fire waiting to happen in a dry environment, suggesting that while it seems inevitable, the timing of such market movements is unpredictable [4]. - The article emphasizes that the perception of being able to predict market movements can lead to significant losses, as investors may overestimate their ability to time the market [5]. Group 2: Investment Performance - In the U.S. market, while the S&P 500 has risen approximately 15% since early 2025, AI stocks have surged by 30%, indicating a narrow market rally primarily driven by AI, with traditional sectors lagging behind [5][7]. - The article notes that if global markets are focused on AI and technology, other markets, including A-shares, are likely to follow suit rather than remain isolated [7]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - The author suggests that maintaining a safety margin is crucial, advocating for a balanced investment approach that does not overly rely on high valuations [7]. - A diversified investment strategy is recommended, where both high and low-performing stocks are included in the portfolio to mitigate risks associated with market fluctuations [8][9]. - Key performance indicators (KPIs) such as market share, growth curves, and profitability metrics should be prioritized over mere valuation to assess the underlying business quality [9]. Group 4: Behavioral Insights - The article stresses the importance of patience in investment, warning against the pitfalls of chasing trends and the emotional turmoil that can arise from missing out on high-performing stocks [10][11]. - It concludes with a reflection on the cyclical nature of the market, highlighting the ongoing struggle of investors between high and low valuations [11].

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a decline across major indices last week, with trading volume continuing to decrease amid divergent market performance [1] - Among the 31 Shenwan first-level industries, banking, coal, and food and beverage sectors performed relatively well [1] Macro Data Analysis - In September, the new social financing scale was 35,338 billion yuan, with new RMB loans amounting to 12,900 billion yuan; the year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.7%, slightly down from 8.8% [5] - M1 new caliber stock year-on-year growth rate was 7.2%, up from 6.0% last month; M2 stock year-on-year growth rate was 8.4%, down from 8.8% [5] - The main contributors to new social financing were short-term loans to enterprises (increased by 0.25 trillion yuan year-on-year), corporate bonds (increased by 0.20 trillion yuan), and off-balance-sheet notes (increased by 0.19 trillion yuan) [5] - The consumer price index (CPI) in September was -0.3%, a slight improvement from -0.4% the previous month; the producer price index (PPI) decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, with a narrowing decline [6] Stock Market Strategy Outlook - The market experienced wide fluctuations last week, with trading volume and margin financing continuing to decline, dropping below 2 trillion yuan [8] - The upcoming period until early November is expected to be filled with macro events, leading to a prevailing cautious sentiment in the market [8] - The technology sector's long-term logic remains intact, and its high valuations have seen some digestion during recent adjustments [8] - Defensive dividend sectors may see an increase in allocation in the short term, while attention should be paid to stocks with catalysts in the dividend sector [8] - The long-term outlook indicates that the ongoing U.S.-China struggle has set a baseline, with international capital markets beginning to question U.S. governance and institutional credibility [8] - The current liquidity environment remains supportive, with a potential influx of funds into the equity market as the wealth effect increases among residents [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market strategy of "high cut low" and emphasizes the different approaches for offense and defense in investment strategies [2] Group 1 - The market is experiencing a phase where high-quality assets are being favored while lower-quality assets are under pressure [2] - There is a notable divergence in performance between different sectors, with some showing resilience while others are struggling [2] - The article highlights the importance of selecting stocks based on their fundamentals and market positioning to navigate the current environment [2] Group 2 - Recent economic indicators suggest a mixed outlook, with certain metrics showing improvement while others remain concerning [2] - The investment community is advised to remain cautious and to focus on sectors that demonstrate strong growth potential despite broader market volatility [2] - The article points out that strategic asset allocation will be crucial in maximizing returns while managing risks in the current market landscape [2]

Group 1 - The market is currently experiencing a "high-cut low" style switch, but this defensive characteristic is not leading to an overall index increase, indicating a continued adjustment phase since early September [1][2] - The overall profitability effect in the A-share market has declined to a medium-low level, suggesting that the adjustment phase is nearing its end, while the "high-cut low" trading strategy is becoming less attractive [1][2] - Discussions about style switching in the fourth quarter are increasing, with a focus on technology leading the market recovery rather than cyclical sectors [1][8] Group 2 - The overseas environment is stabilizing, with recent events in the U.S. banking sector causing temporary risk aversion, but the VIX index has peaked and is now declining [7] - The potential for a significant market rally is anticipated in Q4 2025, driven by factors such as rising overseas AI capital expenditure and advancements in the domestic AI industry [8][9] - The mid-term market outlook remains unchanged, with expectations that technology sector catalysts will significantly outpace those of cyclical sectors until spring 2026 [8][9] Group 3 - The current market structure suggests that the transition from a structural bull market to a comprehensive bull market hinges on the effectiveness of anti-involution policies, particularly in high-market-share sectors like photovoltaics and chemicals [10] - The profitability diffusion indicators show a contraction in various sectors, with notable declines in metals, power equipment, and real estate, while coal and banking sectors continue to expand [14] - The financing sentiment index indicates a cautious approach among investors, reflecting the current market dynamics and potential for future growth [15]

Group 1 - The "high-cut low" style switch is currently unfolding, but there are differences in offense and defense. The market has shown that cyclical and value trends cannot lead the overall index higher, and the market continues its adjustment phase since early September. The key catalyst for cyclical trends has not yet arrived, and the trend of technology growth industries remains concentrated. A-shares will ultimately need to wait for technology to lead for effective breakthroughs [1][3][4] - Discussions about style switching in the fourth quarter have increased significantly. The current "high-cut low" market is defensive in nature, with intensified competition among offensive assets (such as non-ferrous metals and chemicals) within cyclical and value sectors, while defensive assets show absolute returns. The overall profit effect is declining, and technology rebounds show better profit effects [4][5][11] Group 2 - The overseas environment has become more stable. Recent credit risks in U.S. regional banks have created short-term disturbances in risk appetite. However, these risks are still considered isolated events, and the VIX index has peaked and started to decline. A potential turning point in overseas pressures may have passed [8] - The mid-term market judgment remains unchanged: before spring 2026, the catalytic effect of technology industries will significantly exceed that of cyclical industries. Although the long-term cost-effectiveness of technology is currently low, short-term cost-effectiveness issues have been sufficiently digested, allowing for the emergence of a new round of technology trends [8][9] Group 3 - Spring 2026 may represent a structural high point for the A-share market, but it is unlikely to be the peak for the entire year or the current bull market. The conditions for a comprehensive bull market will become increasingly sufficient over time [11] - In the short term, cyclical products (such as non-ferrous metals and chemicals) are not performing well, with a preference for defensive and hedging assets (such as banks and food and beverage). The outlook for 2026 is better than for 2025, with opportunities still available in Q4 2025, particularly in areas like overseas computing power, advanced manufacturing represented by new energy, and national defense and military industries [11][12]

Group 1 - The report indicates a style switch towards "high cut low," but with different offensive and defensive characteristics. The current market has shown that cyclical and value stocks cannot lead the overall index higher, and the market has continued its adjustment phase since early September. A breakthrough in A-shares is expected to ultimately rely on technology leadership [3][6][7] - Discussions about style switching in the fourth quarter have increased. The current "high cut low" market is defensive in nature, with a decline in overall profitability. The report emphasizes that the key catalytic moment for cyclical stocks has not yet arrived, while the trend in technology growth industries remains promising [6][7][11] - The report highlights three mid-term positive factors for technology growth: 1. Continued upward trend in overseas AI capital expenditure beta 2. Ongoing progress in domestic AI industry trends 3. 2025 is expected to be an upward turning point for the linkage between primary and secondary markets, with emerging industry highlights increasing over time [7][11][12] Group 2 - The overseas environment has become more stable, with recent credit risks in U.S. regional banks being categorized as individual events. The VIX index has peaked and started to decline, indicating that the most intense phase of overseas pressure may have passed [11][12] - The mid-term market judgment remains unchanged, with technology industry catalysts expected to significantly outpace cyclical catalysts before spring 2026. Although the long-term value of technology is currently low, short-term value issues have been sufficiently digested, allowing for a new round of technology market performance [11][12] - The report anticipates that spring 2026 may be a structural high point for the A-share market, facing challenges such as demand-side verification and potential delays in the supply-demand turning point. The report suggests that the improvement in supply-demand dynamics will not be "disproven" but may be "delayed" [12][15] Group 3 - The report suggests that after a short-term adjustment, there will still be technology-led market performance in Q4 2025. While spring 2026 may represent a phase high point, it is unlikely to be the peak for the entire year or the current bull market [15][16] - The report emphasizes that cyclical products with offensive logic (such as non-ferrous metals and chemicals) are currently underperforming, while defensive and hedging assets (like banks and food and beverage) are favored. The outlook for 2026 is more promising than for 2025, with opportunities in sectors like advanced manufacturing represented by new energy and national defense [15][16][23] - The report highlights the importance of the anti-involution trend as a key structural factor in transitioning from a mid-term bull market to a full bull market, focusing on industries with high global market share such as photovoltaics and chemicals [16][23]