保险业协会于上周组织召开了人身保险业利率研究专家咨询委员会2025年四季度例会，研讨经济形势、 利率走势，认为当前普通型人身保险产品预定利率研究值为1.90%，环比上季度下降1bp。 预定利率研究值环比微降1bp至1.89%，预计全年大幅下行空间有限，预定利率调整概率较小 本次会议将普通型人身险产品的预定利率研究值设定为1.89%，至此，预定利率动态调整机制实施以 来，2024Q4至2025Q4呈现逐季下调态势，分别为2.34%、2.13%、1.99%、1.90%、1.89%，单季分别环 比下降21bps、14bps、9bps、1bp，降幅持续收窄。对预定利率研究值的参考指标进行拆解，5Y-LPR （2025Q4仍为3.5%）和5Y定存利率（2025Q4仍为1.3%）与二季度和三季度均保持一致，10Y国债收益 率2025Q4下降1.32bp，与研究值趋势保持一致。该行预计全年预定利率研究值大幅下行空间有限，后续 触及新的调整阈值的概率较小，产品设计的持续性和稳定性将进一步夯实。 智通财经APP获悉，东海证券发布研报称，寿险负债转型仍在推进，队伍规模下滑幅度边际减弱，产能 提升成效显著，该行认为应持续关注在稳定 ...

[Table_Reportdate] 2026年01月29日 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] 张季恺 S0630521110001 zjk@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn 联系人： 陈伟业 cwy@longone.com.cn 联系人： 邓尧天 [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20260129 重点推荐 财经要闻 晨 会 纪 要 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声明 dytian@longone.com.cn [table_summary] ➢ 1.预定利率研究值环比微降1bp至1.89%，"开门红"销售火热——保险业态观察（十三） ➢ 2.美元大跌会是广场协议2.0吗？——海外观察：美国经济热点简评 ➢ 3.其他收益推动利润增速回升——国内观察：2025年12月工业企业利润数据 ➢ 1.美联储如期暂停降息 ➢ 2.上海黄金交易所调整白银延期合约保证金水平和涨跌停板 ➢ 3.财联社：多家房企表示目前已不被监管部门要求每月上报 ...

创新产业茁壮成长。"十四五"期间，全国高技术产业销售收入年均增长13.9%，持续保持较快增速，反 映创新产业发展步伐提速。 数实经济加快融合。"十四五"期间，全国数字经济核心产业销售收入年均增长10.5%、企业采购数字技 术年均增长11.2%，反映数字产业化和产业数字化进程持续加快。 绿色转型持续深化。"十四五"期间，新能源车产业链领先优势持续巩固，新能源车制造销售收入年均增 长49.5%；以风光水核等为代表的清洁能源发电销售收入年均增长13.9%。 （来源：工人日报） 本报北京1月28日电 （记者周怿）国家税务总局最新发布的税收数据显示，"十四五"期间，我国高质量 发展扎实推进，2025年作为"十四五"收官之年，经济顶压前行、向新向优发展，高质量发展取得新成 效。 发票数据显示，"十四五"期间，我国高端制造蓬勃发展。全国装备制造业销售收入年均增长9.1%，增速 持续高于制造业平均水平，反映制造业高端化稳步推进。 统一大市场加速推进。"十四五"期间，反映国内各省之间贸易联系的省际贸易销售额占全部销售额的比 重从2021年的38.6%提高至2025年的41%。 ...

税收数据显示："十四五"中国经济高质量发展扎实推进 中新社北京1月28日电 (记者 刘育英 赵建华)中国国家税务总局28日公布的税收大数据显示，"十四五"期 间中国经济高质量发展扎实推进，高端制造蓬勃发展，创新产业茁壮成长，数实经济加快融合，绿色转 型持续深化，统一大市场加速推进。 来源：中国新闻网 编辑：王永乐 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 本文为转载内容，授权事宜请联系原著作权人 发票数据显示，"十四五"期间，全国装备制造业销售收入年均增长9.1%，增速持续高于制造业平均水 平。其中，2025年装备制造业销售收入同比增长7.4%，占制造业比重达47.7%，较2021年提高4.7个百分 点。计算机通信设备制造业、仪器仪表制造业等先进制造业发展向好，分别增长11.5%和10.3%；船舶 制造、工业母机销售收入分别增长10.6%和10.5%。 发票数据显示，"十四五"期间，全国高技术产业销售收入年均增长13.9%，持续保持较快增速，反映创 新产业发展步伐提速。其中，2025年，高技术产业销售收入同比增长13.9%，高技术制造业、高技术服 务业分别增长10.1%和16.6%；特别是"人工智能+"加快落地，智能消费设 ...

Core Insights - The A-share market is experiencing significant structural characteristics with accelerated sector rotation, highlighting the importance of efficient and high-quality information for investment decisions [1] Group 1: Key Features of "Pre-Market Gold" - The service provides a concise summary of market insights before trading begins, focusing on areas that may present investment opportunities [1][6] - It delivers rapid updates on major brokerage opinions, allowing investors to quickly understand what large funds are focusing on [2] - The service curates 1-2 high-potential thematic opportunities daily, analyzing event catalysts, industry logic, and capital movements [3] Group 2: Information Filtering - The service filters out noise from macro and industry news, highlighting key information that truly impacts sectors and stock prices [4] - It organizes critical company announcements from the night and early morning, capturing valuable signals and potential market reactions [5] Group 3: Advantages of Choosing "Pre-Market Gold" - The service saves time by providing a brief that replaces hours of information gathering and reading [6] - It focuses on practical content directly related to secondary market investments, offering actionable decision-making information [7] - The service integrates authoritative sources from brokerages, media, and company announcements to minimize information loss [8] - It aims to establish a systematic pre-market preparation habit by providing timely updates every trading day [9] Group 4: Recent Content Preview - Recent highlights include a resurgence in brokerage earnings, the breakthrough of Shanghai's intelligent computing scale, and a focus on performance lines amid market adjustments [10] - Other notable mentions are the rise in storage chip prices, increased gold demand due to seasonal consumption, and advancements in AI and high-end manufacturing sectors [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the performance forecasts of various A-share listed companies, indicating significant growth in sectors driven by AI computing power, resource prices, and financial market activity, while also noting challenges faced by traditional industries [4][26][30]. Group 1: Companies with Notable Performance Growth - State Grid Yingda (600517.SH) expects a net profit of 2.3 billion to 2.75 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.10% to 74.69%, driven by stable growth in its main business and significant investment returns from its financial sector [6]. - Zhongjin Gold (600489.SH) anticipates a net profit of 4.8 billion to 5.4 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 41.76% to 59.48%, benefiting from higher gold sales prices and improved profitability in its mining operations [6]. - Shenzhen South Circuit (002916.SZ) projects a net profit of 3.154 billion to 3.342 billion yuan, with a growth of 68% to 78%, capitalizing on AI computing upgrades and increased demand in the storage market [6]. - Dongfang Securities (600958.SH) forecasts a net profit of 5.62 billion yuan, a 67.8% increase, supported by a vibrant capital market and strong performance in its wealth management and institutional business [6]. - Chengdu Xian Dao (688222.SH) expects a net profit of 104 million to 127 million yuan, a growth of 102.50% to 147.29%, driven by stable revenue growth and improved gross margins [6]. Group 2: Companies Facing Challenges - Jinjia Co. (002191.SZ) anticipates a loss of 251.95 million to 503.90 million yuan, transitioning from profit to loss due to client structure adjustments and expected impairment provisions [20]. - Mulin Sen (002745.SZ) projects a loss of 1.5 billion to 1.1 billion yuan, also moving from profit to loss due to weak demand in the European market and increased operational costs [21]. - Tianwei Vision (002238.SZ) expects a loss of 160 million to 220 million yuan, influenced by declining rental prices in the data center market and reduced revenue from traditional cable services [23]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The technology growth narrative is clear, with companies like Shenzhen South Circuit and Huadian Co. benefiting from AI computing upgrades and high-end manufacturing demands [26]. - Resource price sensitivity is evident, with companies like Zhongjin Gold and Xiamen Tungsten experiencing performance recovery due to rising prices of strategic resources [26]. - The financial sector shows resilience and transformation, with firms like Dongfang Securities and Guotai Junan benefiting from increased market activity and strategic shifts [27]. - The recovery in consumer and service industries is highlighted by Wanda Film's return to profitability, showcasing the importance of content and experiential consumption [28]. - The pharmaceutical sector is experiencing significant differentiation, with companies like Chengdu Xian Dao achieving high growth through innovation, while others face competitive pressures [29].

创新产业茁壮成长。发票数据显示，"十四五"期间，全国高技术产业销售收入年均增长13.9%，持续保 持较快增速，反映创新产业发展步伐提速。其中，2025年，高技术产业销售收入同比增长13.9%，高技 术制造业、高技术服务业同比分别增长10.1%和16.6%；特别是"人工智能+"加快落地，智能消费设备制 造、集成电路制造、机器人制造同比分别增长32.4%、19.2%和24%。 数实经济加快融合。发票数据显示，"十四五"期间，全国数字经济核心产业销售收入年均增长10.5%、 企业采购数字技术年均增长11.2%，反映数字产业化和产业数字化进程持续加快。其中，2025年数实融 合继续深入推进，数字经济核心产业销售收入同比增长9.4%；全国企业采购数字技术金额同比增长 9.6%，其中，制造业数字化进程较快，采购数字技术金额同比增长10.4%。 绿色转型持续深化。发票数据显示，"十四五"期间，新能源车产业链领先优势持续巩固，新能源车制造 销售收入年均增长49.5%；以风光水核等为代表的清洁能源发电销售收入年均增长13.9%。其中，2025 年绿色产业继续保持较快增速，新能源车制造同比增长14.3%；清洁能源发电行业销售收入 ...

新华社北京1月28日电（记者刘开雄）记者28日从国家税务总局获悉，"十四五"期间税收数据分析显 示，我国经济加快向新向优发展，高质量发展取得新成效。 高端制造蓬勃发展。发票数据显示，"十四五"期间，全国装备制造业销售收入年均增长9.1%，增速持续 高于制造业平均水平。其中，2025年，装备制造业销售收入同比增长7.4%，占制造业比重达47.7%，较 2021年提高4.7个百分点。特别是计算机通信设备制造业、仪器仪表制造业等先进制造业发展向好，同 比分别增长11.5%和10.3%。 创新产业茁壮成长。发票数据显示，"十四五"期间，全国高技术产业销售收入年均增长13.9%。其中， 2025年，高技术产业销售收入同比增长13.9%，高技术制造业、高技术服务业同比分别增长10.1%和 16.6%；智能消费设备制造、集成电路制造、机器人制造同比分别增长32.4%、19.2%和24%。 数实经济加快融合。发票数据显示，"十四五"期间，全国数字经济核心产业销售收入年均增长10.5%、 企业采购数字技术年均增长11.2%，反映数字产业化和产业数字化进程持续加快。其中，2025年，数字 经济核心产业销售收入同比增长9.4%；制 ...

银龙股份 20260127 摘要 银龙股份高毛利产品包括大箱和小箱类产品（毛利率 30%-35%，市占 率 40%，2024 年销量 3 万吨，2025 年预计 5 万吨），超微粉有限类 产品（毛利率 30%-35%，市占率 60%，2024 年销售 1.6 万吨， 2025 年预计 3 万吨），以及轨道板类产品（毛利率 40%-50%，市占 率 40%-50%，24 年销售 2 万吨，25 年预计 4 万吨）。 公司 CRTS3 型轨道板订单充足，已签订超过 40 亿元订单，海外市场通 过与俄罗斯莫斯科的视频保障合作，提供高端装备，预计未来两到三年 内贡献约 3 亿元净利润，首套设备已发货，并积极开拓欧洲市场。 银龙股份在精细化业务方面，通过收购资产打造全品类公司，应用场景 包括航天、军工、高铁、机器人、深海汽车等领域，并参股陕西硬质合 金工具有限公司和天津爱斯达航天科技股份有限公司，分别布局高端刀 具和商业航天领域。 公司与陕西硬质合金工具有限公司有长期合作，计划设立生产基地生产 高端刀具，并适时并入上市公司；与天津爱斯达航天科技股份有限公司 正在探讨协同效应，共同推进高端公司发展。 Q&A 银龙股份 2 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a volume contraction with major indices closing in the green, indicating a stable performance of large-cap stocks. The trading volume decreased significantly compared to the previous trading day, with a total turnover of 2.92 trillion yuan, down by 359.2 billion yuan [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index rose by 0.18%, 0.09%, and 0.71% respectively, while the North Star 50 Index fell by 0.05% [1] Sector Performance - The semiconductor, photovoltaic equipment, and precious metals sectors showed active performance, while the aquaculture and liquor sectors underwent adjustments. Notably, the semiconductor sector saw a net inflow of over 9.4 billion yuan, with significant contributions from automotive chips and 5G sectors [2] - The photovoltaic equipment sector rebounded strongly after a day of adjustment, rising by 2.79% on January 27, with several stocks achieving substantial gains [2][3] Investment Strategy - Analysts suggest that the market's driving logic is shifting towards performance verification, with a recommendation for a balanced asset allocation strategy. Investors are encouraged to focus on technology growth sectors like AI and high-end manufacturing while also considering cyclical, resource, and certain consumer sectors for potential investment opportunities [5] - The upcoming earnings announcements are expected to influence market dynamics, with sectors showing sustainable performance likely to attract more capital. Historical data indicates that sectors with strong earnings growth during this period tend to achieve excess returns [4][5]