Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [8][56]. Core Viewpoints - The white liquor sector is expected to face pressure during the upcoming National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival due to cautious inventory stocking and a significant impact on group purchasing channels. However, traditional channels like instant retail and live streaming are experiencing rapid growth, indicating a recovery in consumer demand [6][54]. - The report highlights opportunities in high-growth segments such as prepared dishes and snacks, driven by policy support and market expansion. The introduction of national standards for prepared dishes is expected to benefit leading companies in the sector [7][55]. - The beverage sector is approaching peak season, with a focus on new consumer opportunities and retail channel transformations. Companies like "Naixue's Tea" and "Chabaidao" are highlighted for their growth potential [8][56]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly News Summary - Industry news includes the selection of five liquor companies for the Zhejiang Province Industrial Heritage list and a 1.7% growth in Guizhou's liquor and tea manufacturing from January to August [6][20]. - Company news features Guizhou Moutai's investment in a biotechnology company and the launch of "Longma Liquor" by Langjiu [6][21]. 2. Key Company Feedback - The report provides insights into the performance of key companies in the food and beverage sector, with a focus on stock price movements and market trends [32][34]. - The white liquor industry saw a cumulative production of 4.145 million tons in 2024, a decrease of 7.72%, while revenue reached 796.4 billion yuan, an increase of 5.3% [36][38]. 3. Industry Ratings and Investment Strategies - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the white liquor sector such as Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, as well as flexible stocks like JiuGui Jiu and SheDe JiuYe [6][54]. - In the snack sector, companies like Wancheng Group and Anjiu Food are recommended due to their market positioning and growth potential [7][55]. 4. Key Company and Earnings Forecast - The report lists several companies with their respective stock prices, earnings per share (EPS), price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, and investment ratings, all indicating a "Buy" recommendation [10][25]. - Notable companies include Guizhou Moutai with a stock price of 1435.00 yuan and an EPS of 68.64 for 2024, and Wuliangye with a stock price of 120.17 yuan and an EPS of 8.21 for 2024 [10][25].

Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing short-term fluctuations as the National Day holiday approaches, with a cautious sentiment among investors leading to profit-taking and adjustments in positions [1][2][16] - The technology sector has shown signs of a temporary pullback, while financial and consumer sectors demonstrate resilience, indicating a short-term style switch in the market [1][2][16] Short-term Strategy - For short-term investors, it is advisable to take profits on stocks that have seen significant gains recently to mitigate holding risks [2][16] - Long-term investors should remain patient with quality companies that have solid fundamentals and clear industry prospects, particularly in the technology sector [2][16] Sector Analysis Technology Sector - The technology sector, particularly AI, semiconductors, and robotics, is highlighted as a long-term investment opportunity, especially during the current market correction [2][16] - The semiconductor industry is expected to continue its upward trajectory, supported by national policies and increasing global demand for AI and high-performance computing [10] New Energy Sector - The new energy sector remains a focus for investors, with leading companies expected to benefit from both valuation recovery and performance growth [3][9][17] - The demand for lithium batteries, photovoltaics, and wind energy is projected to persist as global efforts to achieve carbon neutrality continue [9][17] Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector is showing signs of recovery, with new policies in major cities aimed at boosting market demand and improving the financial health of real estate companies [11] - Investors are encouraged to look for opportunities in quality companies with strong land reserves and stable growth prospects [11] Precious Metals - The precious metals sector has seen price increases driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and rising geopolitical tensions, making gold an attractive investment [12][13] Gaming Sector - The gaming sector has experienced volatility, with recent advancements in AI technology providing growth opportunities in content production and interactive entertainment [14] Banking Sector - The banking sector is stabilizing, with high dividend yield stocks continuing to attract investor interest, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment [15]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the high confidence among private equity firms in maintaining high stock positions during the upcoming long holiday, reflecting a belief in the resilience of the A-share market despite potential uncertainties [1][2][8]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Positioning - Over 65% of private equity firms plan to hold high or full positions (over 70% equity) during the long holiday, with an average stock position of 71.44% [2][8]. - A survey indicates that 70.19% of private equity firms are optimistic about the A-share market post-holiday, expecting a gradual recovery [3][8]. - The average stock position among private equity firms reached a new high of 78.41% as of September 19, 2023 [2]. Group 2: Macro Economic Factors - The chief strategist of Heisaki Capital believes that the beginning of a U.S. interest rate cut cycle and a shift towards a loose global liquidity environment will benefit capital markets in the long term [3]. - Domestic economic policies are supportive, with monetary and fiscal policies providing ample funding for the market [3]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Focus - A significant 59.62% of private equity firms favor technology growth sectors such as AI, semiconductors, and smart driving for post-holiday investments [5]. - The investment strategy of "core + satellite" is suggested, combining high-growth technology stocks with defensive low-valuation sectors to mitigate risks [5][6]. - There is a noted divergence in investment strategies, with some firms cautious about high valuations in technology stocks, while others remain committed to growth sectors [4][5]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The article highlights a consensus among private equity firms that the market will experience a rotation between technology growth and value stocks, with 62.50% expecting a balanced market style [4]. - The potential for a "high-low cut" in market performance is acknowledged, where previously lagging sectors may catch up [6]. - Overall, despite differing views, there is a strong belief in the market's ability to generate returns in the medium to long term, particularly in technology sectors [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the food and beverage industry, particularly on high-end liquor and leading consumer goods companies, indicating long-term investment value in stocks like Kweichow Moutai, Yili, and Qingdao Beer [6][8]. Core Viewpoints - Despite a recovery in liquor demand during the peak season, the industry is still undergoing adjustments, and patience is required for the fundamental recovery [6][7]. - The liquor sector is entering a destocking phase, but achieving a balance between volume and price will take time, with expected pressure on Q3 reports [6][7]. - The consumer goods sector is expected to benefit from cost advantages and new product opportunities driven by evolving consumer preferences [6][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Industry Insights - The food and beverage sector saw a decline of 2.49% last week, with liquor down 3.03%, underperforming the broader market [5][6]. - Key stocks showing significant gains include Yangyuan Beverage (up 32.49%) and Jinzi Ham (up 11.93%) [5]. 2. Liquor Sector Analysis - Kweichow Moutai's bottle price is 1800 RMB, up 45 RMB week-on-week, while the box price is 1830 RMB, up 60 RMB [7][10]. - The industry faces challenges such as high inventory, weak demand recovery, and price discrepancies leading to unprofitable channels [7][8]. 3. Consumer Goods Sector Analysis - The report highlights a favorable outlook for dairy products due to declining costs and improving supply-demand dynamics, recommending stocks like Yili and New Dairy [8]. - The beer industry remains stable, with recommendations for Yanjing Beer and Qingdao Beer [8]. 4. Market Performance - The food and beverage industry underperformed the Shenwan A index by 2.79 percentage points, with the liquor sector lagging by 3.33 percentage points [44].

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of Hong Kong's internet and non-ferrous metal sectors has been strong, and the recommendation to invest in these sectors remains unchanged. The long-term upward trend is expected to continue despite potential market volatility [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The market is anticipated to experience increased volatility in the near term, but the long-term upward trend is expected to remain intact [1] - AI continues to be a key theme in the Hong Kong market, with the internet sector expected to be one of the primary beneficiaries [1] Group 2: Sector Recommendations - Non-ferrous metals are benefiting from dual advantages of liquidity easing due to interest rate cuts and rising inflation expectations [1] - It is recommended to focus on technology sectors, including AI internet large caps and small caps in high-end manufacturing, as well as non-ferrous metals [1] - There is a suggestion to increase allocation to Hong Kong insurance stocks with significant market expectation discrepancies, as well as value strategies such as "turnaround" and high dividend stocks [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Some undervalued innovative pharmaceutical stocks are identified as potential candidates for bottom-up investment [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by more than 5% [2]. Core Insights - The highway sector has experienced a significant adjustment since June, driven by a decrease in risk aversion and a rise in government bond yields. Despite this, the sector is characterized by stable performance, strong cash flow, and high predictability, making it an attractive investment opportunity [4][13]. - The premium of A-shares over H-shares for highway stocks has decreased to its lowest level since 2023, suggesting a favorable valuation for A-shares compared to H-shares [5][19]. - Key highway stocks have seen their dividend yields recover to higher levels not seen since 2024, with several companies showing significant increases in their dividend rates [6][34]. Summary by Sections 1. Highway Sector Adjustment - The highway sector is traditionally known for high dividends and has shown strong performance in the past. However, it has undergone a deep adjustment since June due to market conditions and rising bond yields. The current state presents a strong absolute return potential for investors [4][13]. 2. A-H Share Premium - The A-H share premium for highway stocks has narrowed significantly, indicating a shift in valuation dynamics. This change is attributed to the differing impacts of domestic and U.S. bond yields on the respective markets [5][24]. 3. Dividend Yield Recovery - The dividend yields of key A-share highway stocks have increased significantly due to stock price corrections. Companies like Ninghu, Wantong, and Guangdong Expressway have returned to higher dividend yield levels, enhancing their attractiveness for investors [6][35]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend stocks from the highway sector, particularly those with stable dividend payouts. Companies such as Wantong, Guangdong Expressway A, and China Merchants Highway are highlighted as having strong dividend potential, with some expected to yield over 5% [7][48].

Market Overview - The A-share market is expected to continue its short-term震荡休整态势 due to the upcoming National Day holiday, which may lead to a "pre-holiday effect" as short-term funds choose to take profits [1][10] - Recent adjustments in the market, following the failure to break through the 3900-point level, are seen as beneficial for digesting profit-taking and setting a foundation for future trends, especially in the context of a favorable dollar interest rate cut cycle for emerging markets [2][10] Sector Analysis Banking Sector - The banking sector has shown strong performance, providing support to the market. High dividend yield stocks have been recommended as stable investment opportunities, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment [6][10] - The sector has been favored for over two years, but there are indications that the attractiveness of high dividend stocks may decrease as more funds flow into these assets, leading to potential valuation volatility [6][10] Precious Metals - The precious metals sector has been active, driven by the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut, which has led to a surge in gold prices, surpassing the $3700 mark [8] - Factors contributing to the rise in gold prices include the onset of a rate cut cycle, increased geopolitical tensions, and strong demand from global central banks [8] Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor sector remains a long-term investment opportunity, supported by national policy and increasing global demand for AI and high-performance computing [9] - The sector is expected to benefit from domestic substitution trends and increased policy support, with a focus on companies that can adapt quickly to industry changes [9] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to be cautious, particularly those with a conservative approach, and to wait for clear market stabilization signals before re-entering [2][11] - Low-valuation stocks may present better investment opportunities during market corrections, while high-flying stocks may face significant adjustment pressures [11]

策 略 研 究 太 平 洋 2025 年 09 月 23 日 投资策略 策略日报（2025.09.23）：关注银行板块的配置机会 荡整理>>--2025-09-22 <<长风破浪会有时>>--2025-09-22 <<窄门 3>>--2025-09-23 E-MAIL：zhangdd@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190522040001 证券分析师：徐梓铭 E-MAIL：xuzm@tpyzq.com 大类资产跟踪 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 相关研究报告 <<策略日报（2025.09.22）：节前震 证券分析师：张冬冬 利率债全线下跌，利率债长端明显弱于短端，三十年期国债期货加 权今日再创新低，距离年内新低已经很近，预计今年 3 月份的低点附近 的支撑力度较强，做空者可适当止盈。A 股在节前胜率不佳，近期走势量 价不稳，震荡的概率较大，预计国债也将因此获得喘息。 在更长的时间 维度上，我们维持此前判断：此次债市下跌将创下年内新低，目标位在 去年 9 月份政策转向的低点（2024 年 9 月 30 日）附近。大盘突破去年 10 月 8 日高点后，成交量和波动率同步放大上涨，短期未看到结束的迹 象，预 ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 26,159.12 points, down 0.70%, while the Tech Index fell 1.45% to 6,767.06 points, and the National Enterprises Index decreased by 0.86% to 9,290.34 points [2] - Southbound capital saw a net outflow exceeding 4.1 billion HKD [2] Interest Rates - Recent trends indicate an upward movement in Hong Kong's interbank offered rates, with overnight Hibor and 3-month Hibor rates rising [4] Gold Sector - International gold prices reached new highs, trading above 3,800 USD per ounce, leading to a surge in gold stocks [5] - Notable gains in gold stocks included Datang Gold, which rose by 28.12%, and other companies like Tongguan Gold and Shandong Gold also saw increases [6][7] Banking Sector - Domestic banks such as Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank and Zhengzhou Bank experienced increases of 2.94% and 0.78%, respectively, while local banks like Dah Sing Bank and HSBC also saw gains [8][9] Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor sector initially faced significant declines but recovered slightly towards the end of the trading day, with ZTE Corporation dropping 5.05% [10][11] Technology Sector - Major tech stocks had mixed performances, with NetEase rising by 1.37%, while Alibaba and Kuaishou saw minor increases [12][13] Automotive Sector - The automotive sector continued its downward trend, with NIO dropping nearly 6% and BYD shares falling over 3% [14][15] New Listings - Different Group, a high-end parenting brand, debuted on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, closing up nearly 44% with a share price exceeding 100 HKD [16] Investment Strategy - According to招商证券, the market may experience increased volatility following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, but the long-term upward trend remains intact. The focus should be on technology and non-ferrous metals sectors [16][17] - The investment strategy suggests a combination of aggressive and defensive approaches, emphasizing technology, non-ferrous metals, and insurance sectors [17][18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the home appliance industry [8][13]. Core Insights - In August, domestic air conditioner sales remained stable while export declines narrowed, indicating a potential recovery in the export market. The overall valuation of the industry is at a historical low [4][13]. - The report highlights that the air conditioning sector is expected to experience a slowdown in growth from September to December due to high shipment bases, despite supportive policies for domestic demand [4][10][13]. - Leading companies in the white goods sector, such as Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, Hisense Home Appliances, and Gree Electric Appliances, are recommended for their high quality and dividends [4][13]. Summary by Sections Air Conditioning Market Performance - In August, the production of household air conditioners reached 12.88 million units, a year-on-year increase of 9.43%, while sales totaled 13.02 million units, a decrease of 1.04%. Domestic sales were 7.74 million units, up 1.22%, and exports were 5.29 million units, down 4.18% [9][15]. - The report notes that the domestic market showed stable performance, with a slight increase in sales, while the export market is showing signs of recovery [10][12]. Company-Specific Performance - Gree's sales in August decreased by 3.39% (domestic sales flat, exports down 10.53%), while Midea's sales fell by 9.21% (domestic down 17.31%, exports up 8.33%). In contrast, Haier's sales increased by 15.63% (domestic up 27.12%, exports down 16.67%) [9][27]. - Hisense reported a 6.71% increase in sales (domestic up 50%, exports down 22.95%), while TCL saw a 2.86% increase (domestic down 8%, exports up 6.25%) [9][22]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that from September to December, air conditioning shipments will likely see a year-on-year decline of 6%-7% due to high shipment bases, despite policy support [10][13]. - The external sales decline is expected to narrow further, with a projected year-on-year increase of 47% in air conditioning exports from September to December 2024 [12][13].