6 g 05/5 alon Province of the states 197 (s 6 15 70 . 26 -11-0 x 1133 李大霄 深圳商报记者 钟国斌 2025年，沪指一度站上4000点大关，A股总市值首次突破100万亿元，全年累计成交额突破400万亿元，日均 成交额超万亿元。 2026年市场主流热点：一个是高科技，一个是高股息，消费板块有望成为第三条主线。 2025年收官之际，前券商首席经济学家李大霄接受了深圳商报记者专访，畅谈2025年中国资本市场特点，展 望2026年中国资本市场投资热点。他认为，高股息为代表的蓝筹股或是2026年一条投资主线。 2025年，A股主要指数大幅上涨。其中沪指一度突破4000点，多次刷新10年新高，年内涨幅超过18%；深证 成指年内涨幅超过30%，创业板指年内涨幅超过50%。 2025年，A股成交额迎来历史天量，全年累计成交额突破400万亿元，日均成交额超万亿元，刷新历史新高。 2025年，A股总市值突破100万亿元，为A股市场历史上首次；最高总市值突破110万亿元，创历史新高。 2025年，沪指年末9连阳，创出一个新的纪录。A股共有3次8连阳以上，年末创下 ...

2025年，沪指一度站上4000点大关，A股总市值首次突破100万亿元，全年累计成交额突破400万亿元，日均 成交额超万亿元。 2026年市场主流热点：一个是高科技，一个是高股息，消费板块有望成为第三条主线。 6 ado Prov a chor e P (8 . . . . - 0 -11-2 x 100 1 il a 李大霄 深圳商报记者钟国斌 2025年，A股总市值突破100万亿元，为A股市场历史上首次；最高总市值突破110万亿元，创历史新高。 2025年，沪指年末9连阳，创出一个新的纪录。A股共有3次8连阳以上，年末创下9连阳。 2025年收官之际，前券商首席经济学家李大霄接受了深圳商报记者专访，畅谈2025年中国资本市场特点，展 望2026年中国资本市场投资热点。他认为，高股息为代表的蓝筹股或是2026年一条投资主线。 李大霄曾为英大证券研究所所长、首席经济学家。他曾兼任中国证券业协会证券分析师专业委员会委员、投 资顾问专业委员会委员、首席经济学家委员会委员。 2025年，市场在稳步前行中突破4000点 "2025年，中国资本市场在稳步前行中突破重要关口！"李大霄表示，沪指一度站上4000点大关，A股 ...

智通财经APP获悉，12月31日，恒生指数公司发表《2025年终市场总结报告》。2025年，以恒生指数(恒指)为代表的香港股票市场上升27.8%，为2017年以 来最佳表现。2024年录得17.7%升幅后，除3月底因贸易冲突而有所回落，恒指于2025年大部分时间均稳步向上。2025年升势由多个主要因素组成，包括港 股通创纪录的资金流入、对人工智能未来发展的憧憬，以及降息等。2025年，恒指表现跑赢另外两项旗舰指数—恒生中国企业指数(国指)及恒生科技指数(科 指)，两者分别上涨22.3%及23.5%。值得留意的是，追踪恒生生物科技指数的期货于11月推出，而该指数于2025年上升64.5%。 ESG指数方面，恒生气候变化1.5℃目标指数表现较佳，年度升幅为31.2%。 2025年，恒生综合指数(恒生综指)上涨31.0%。在恒生综指中，中型股上升31.6%，领先大型股(+30.8%)及小型股(+28.8%)。在恒生综指的行业指数中，原材 料业表现最佳，上升161.3%，公用事业则是表现最差的行业，录得5.7%升幅。 香港上市的主题指数方面，恒生港股通创新药指数及恒生医疗保健指数表现最佳，年度升幅分别为64.0%及5 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 31 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 银行业年度策略 高股息为盾，静待价值修复 相关研究： 行业评级：增持（维持） 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 | 相对收益 | -4.85 | 4.99 | -10.62 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对收益 | -2.10 | 5.22 | 5.69 | 分析师：郭怡萍 证书编号：S0500523080002 Tel：(8621) 50295327 Email：guoyp@xcsc.com 中国人寿金融中心10楼 核心要点： 市场回顾 今年银行板块行情节奏呈现"前强、中弱、后稳"的走势，主要反映从避 险主导到寻求增长的市场风格转换过程，以及资产风险预期的变化。 政策导向：宽松政策过渡期，金融支持实体经济 | 1. | 《2025年中期策略-价值重估仍 | | --- | --- | | 在进行时》 | 2025.07.02 | | 2. | 《业绩底部修复，配置价值提 | | 升》 | 2025.09.05 | 2026 年，政策环境正从此前的超常规逆周期调节模式，向更具稳定性和 ...

Group 1 - The macro environment for next year may continue with fiscal policies such as trade-in programs and consumer subsidies, while overseas liquidity is expected to be supported by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [1] - Concerns about whether AI has entered a bubble phase are prevalent, with significant adjustments in the US stock market and worries about cash flow and debt issues among cloud companies [1] - However, compared to the internet bubble in 2000, the cash flow, profitability, and profit margins of leading overseas cloud companies are healthier, with capital expenditure growth expected to reach 30% to 40% next year [1] Group 2 - Some growth sectors' earnings expectations for next year are already priced in, while high dividend and high cash flow assets have lagged behind, making them attractive for investment [2] - The recommendation is to diversify investments, especially for sectors with high floating profits, to achieve a better investment experience during potential market fluctuations [2] Group 3 - The direction of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts is relatively clear, which may lead to a more accommodative overseas liquidity environment, benefiting technology growth sectors [3] - Domestic monetary policy is expected to remain moderately loose, with potential for further rate cuts, which would favor high dividend and high cash flow assets [3] - Historical data shows a negative correlation between high dividend assets and domestic bond yields, suggesting that a decline in bond yields could enhance the attractiveness of high dividend assets in the A-share market [3] Group 4 - High dividend and high cash flow assets are becoming the core of investment allocation, with specific ETFs like cash flow ETF (159399) and dividend state-owned enterprise ETF (510720) offering distinct advantages [4] - The current market is undergoing valuation adjustments, and long-term funds are encouraged to accumulate positions at lower prices, with a balanced allocation being more suitable for the market outlook in 2026 [4]

Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment score is 70, indicating a "relatively hot" market condition, which suggests investor confidence is strong [5][9]. - Historical trends show that when the sentiment score is below or close to 30, the market tends to find support, while scores above 70 may indicate resistance [9]. Hot Themes Tracking - **Robotics Theme**: The establishment of a national standard organization for humanoid robots and embodied intelligence marks a transition from "technical exploration" to "industrial collaboration" and "scale deployment," which is expected to accelerate technology application and ecosystem formation. Related stocks include Sanhua Intelligent Control (002050) and Wolong Electric Drive (600580) [5]. - **Banking Theme**: Bank stocks are characterized by high dividend yields, with the CSI Bank Index yielding 6.02%, significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield. This makes bank stocks attractive for long-term funds during economic slowdowns. Relevant stocks include Agricultural Bank of China (601288) and Ningbo Bank (002142) [5]. - **Brokerage Theme**: The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is focusing on strengthening classified regulation and optimizing risk control indicators for quality institutions. This shift aims to enhance capital utilization efficiency and promote high-quality development in the securities industry. Related stocks include CITIC Securities (600030) and Guotai Junan Securities (601211) [5]. Capital Flow Analysis - The top ten stocks with the highest net inflow include Sanhua Intelligent Control (002050) with a net inflow of approximately 279.98 million, and Shanzhi Gaoke (000981) with about 153.53 million [10]. - The top ten stocks with the highest net buy in financing include C Qiangyi (688809) with 54.91 million and Sanhua Intelligent Control (002050) with 37.68 million [13]. - The top ten industries with the highest net inflow include SW Machinery Equipment and SW Automotive, indicating strong investor interest in these sectors [17]. Industry Insights - The banking sector is highlighted for its stability and high dividend yields, making it a key focus for long-term investors amid economic uncertainties [5]. - The robotics industry is poised for growth due to new standards that facilitate collaboration and reduce development costs, indicating a shift towards more scalable applications [5]. - The brokerage industry is undergoing a transformation towards quality over quantity, with a focus on differentiated services and professional strength [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. For different financial derivatives, the outlooks are as follows: - **Stock Index Futures**: The outlook is "oscillation" [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: The outlook is "oscillation" [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The outlook is "oscillation" [8]. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures on December 31, 2025, and believes that better investment opportunities may come after the holiday. It also provides corresponding operation suggestions for different derivatives based on market trends and signals [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions and Suggestions for Different Derivatives Stock Index Futures - **Market Conditions**: On Tuesday, the Shanghai Composite Index opened lower and recovered, closing flat at the end of the session with basically the same trading volume and continued cooling market sentiment. There are three signals: the daily high has decreased; only one hot - spot sector can be supported; new hot - spots are emerging. Incremental funds have returned to rationality, and it is expected that there will be no systematic opportunities at the end of the year [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Retain long positions, wait for the opportunity to increase positions after New Year's Day, and temporarily use high - dividend and price - increase chains as the main allocation lines, with large - cap stocks preferred over small - cap stocks. The recommended operation is "Dividend ETF + IC long positions" [7]. Stock Index Options - **Market Conditions**: The equity market opened lower and fluctuated higher. The trading volume of each option variety increased slightly, but the increase was limited, and the trading volume remained at a relatively low level. The intraday implied volatility of options fluctuated sharply and showed a strong overall trend. It is speculated that the proportion of investors in directional trend trading has decreased, and the demand for option hedging and risk management may be more stable [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Continue to hold sold options to increase returns, and can also supplement with a small amount of bought put options for protection and defense. The recommended operation is "covered call" [7]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Conditions**: Treasury bond futures closed with differentiated performance. The 30 - year main contract rose 0.17%, the 10 - year main contract fell 0.02%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.01%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.01%. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds mostly increased, and the yields of spot bonds showed differentiated trends. The central bank's net injection of funds was 25.32 billion yuan, but the year - end capital market tightened, which affected the bond market. However, considering the central bank's care for the capital market, the probability of continued tight capital after the New Year is low [8]. - **Operation Suggestions**: For trend strategies, expect oscillation. For hedging strategies, pay attention to short - position hedging at low basis levels. For basis strategies, pay attention to the widening of the basis. For curve strategies, expect the curve to remain steep [9]. 3.2 Economic Calendar The economic calendar shows the time, region, indicators, previous values, forecast values, and unpublished release values of economic data from December 30, 2025, to January 1, 2026, including data from the United States, China, and Europe [11]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **Regulatory Policy**: The "Regulations for the Implementation of the Value - Added Tax Law of the People's Republic of China" will be implemented on January 1, 2026, aiming to implement the "Value - Added Tax Law of the People's Republic of China" [11]. - **Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery**: The Central Rural Work Conference from December 29th to 30th analyzed the situation and challenges of "agriculture, rural areas, and farmers" and deployed work for 2026 [12]. - **TMT**: The Ministry of Education plans to issue relevant policy documents next year to promote the application of artificial intelligence in education and build an education system for the future [12]. - **Real Estate**: Starting from January 1, 2026, individuals selling housing will have different value - added tax policies depending on the length of housing ownership [13]. - **Consumption**: The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance will implement a large - scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade - in policy in 2026, with clear funding channels and cost - sharing ratios [14]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring The report mentions the monitoring of stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures data, but does not provide specific data content [15][19][31].

华鑫证券近日发布基础化工行业研究：截至2025-12-26收盘，布伦特原油价格为60.64美元/桶，相较上 周+0.28%；WTI原油价格为56.74美元/桶，相较上周+0.39%。预计2025年国际油价中枢值将维持在65美 金。鉴于当前国际局势不确定性和对油价下降的预期，我们看好具有高股息特征，同时受益原材料降价 的中国石化等。 来源：中国能源网 以下为研究报告摘要： 投资要点 电池级碳酸锂、工业级碳酸锂等涨幅居前，硫磺、液氯等跌幅较大 本周涨幅较大的产品：电池级碳酸锂（四川99.5%min，10.79%），工业级碳酸锂（四川99.0%min， 10.78%），PTA（华东，8.82%），二甲苯（东南亚FOB韩国，7.43%），PX（CFR东南亚，7.26%）， 丁二烯（东南亚CFR，6.83%），天然气（NYMEX天然气(期货)，5.42%），对硝基氯化苯（安徽地 区，4.65%），PET切片（华东，4.17%），涤纶短纤（1.4D*38mm华东，3.35%）。 本周跌幅较大的产品：纯吡啶（华东地区，-2.67%），电石（华东地区，-3.17%），焦炭（山西市场价 格，-3.72%），LLDPE（余姚市场 ...

Core Viewpoint - Ping An Life increased its stake in Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) by acquiring 44.05 million H-shares, raising its total holdings to 5.842 billion shares, which now represents over 19% of ABC's total H-shares [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The banking sector's "high dividend, low valuation" characteristic has re-emerged, with average dividend yields for A-shares and H-shares at 4.3% and 5% respectively as of December 19 [1] - The People's Bank of China is expected to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, with potential for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in 2026 [1][2] Group 2: Investment Outlook - Long-term demand for capital allocation in the banking sector is anticipated to continue, driven by the "high dividend, low valuation" logic [2] - The recent appreciation of the RMB is favorable for the performance of RMB-denominated equity assets, with expectations for stable macro-financial conditions leading to improved bank operating environments [2] Group 3: Banking Sector Overview - The Hong Kong-listed banks include Agricultural Bank of China, China Merchants Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Minsheng Bank, Postal Savings Bank of China, and Citic Bank [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies including Xinyangfeng, Senqilin, Ruifeng New Materials, Sinopec, Juhua, Yangnong Chemical, CNOOC, Tongkun, Daotong Technology, and others [10]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights significant price increases in battery-grade lithium carbonate (up 10.79%) and industrial-grade lithium carbonate (up 10.78%), while sulfur and liquid chlorine experienced notable declines [4][7]. - It suggests focusing on investment opportunities in areas such as import substitution, pure domestic demand, and high dividend stocks, particularly in light of the current geopolitical tensions affecting oil prices [6][18]. - The overall chemical industry remains under pressure, with mixed performance across sub-sectors due to past capacity expansions and weak demand, although some sectors like lubricants are performing better than expected [21]. Summary by Sections Chemical Industry Investment Suggestions - The report recommends paying attention to the glyphosate industry, which is showing signs of recovery with decreasing inventory and rising prices, suggesting potential investment in companies like Jiangshan Co., Xingfa Group, and Yangnong Chemical [21]. - It also emphasizes selecting stocks with strong competitive positions and growth potential, particularly in the lubricant additive sector and coal-to-olefins industry [21]. - The report notes that domestic demand for chemical fertilizers and certain pesticide sub-products remains robust, with companies like Hualu Hengsheng and China Heartlink Fertilizer being highlighted for investment [21]. Price Trends of Chemical Products - The report details recent price movements, with significant increases in battery-grade lithium carbonate and PTA, while products like sulfur and liquid chlorine saw declines [4][5][19]. - It mentions that the international oil price is expected to stabilize around $65 per barrel, which could benefit companies with high dividend yields and those that are sensitive to raw material cost reductions [6][18]. Market Dynamics - The report discusses the impact of geopolitical tensions on oil prices, particularly the situation in Venezuela and the EU's sanctions on Russia, which have contributed to recent price fluctuations [22][23]. - It highlights the weak trading atmosphere in the coal market, with prices declining due to limited demand and cautious market sentiment [29][30]. - The report notes that the polypropylene market is experiencing downward pressure due to weak demand and increased supply, while the PTA market is expected to remain strong due to ongoing inventory reduction [31][35].