Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guizhou Moutai (600519.SH) is "Accumulate" with a target price of 2040.00 CNY [1][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a slowdown in growth for Q3 2025, with total revenue of 130.9 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 64.6 billion CNY, also up 6.2% year-on-year. The Q3 revenue was 39.81 billion CNY, showing a slight increase of 0.3% year-on-year, while net profit for Q3 was 19.22 billion CNY, up 0.5% year-on-year [2][14]. - The report indicates that the company is focusing on sustainable high-quality growth, with a rational approach to pricing and inventory management, which is expected to alleviate pressure on pricing and inventory levels in the industry [14]. Financial Summary - Total revenue projections are as follows: - 2023: 150.56 billion CNY - 2024: 174.14 billion CNY - 2025: 183.13 billion CNY (growth of 5.2%) - 2026: 192.21 billion CNY (growth of 5.0%) - 2027: 201.77 billion CNY (growth of 5.0%) [4][15]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected as: - 2023: 74.73 billion CNY - 2024: 86.23 billion CNY - 2025: 90.10 billion CNY (growth of 4.5%) - 2026: 94.63 billion CNY (growth of 5.0%) - 2027: 99.71 billion CNY (growth of 5.4%) [4][15]. - Earnings per share (EPS) estimates are: - 2025: 71.95 CNY - 2026: 75.57 CNY - 2027: 79.63 CNY [14]. Market Performance - The current stock price is 1,431.90 CNY, with a market capitalization of 1,793.13 billion CNY. The stock has a 52-week price range of 1,403.09 CNY to 1,649.14 CNY [7][14]. - The report notes a slight decline in stock performance over the past 12 months, with an absolute decline of 3% [11]. Industry Context - The report highlights that the liquor industry, particularly the white liquor segment, is expected to develop healthily under the leadership of major players like Guizhou Moutai, despite current challenges [2][14].

Core Points - The APEC informal leaders' meeting will be held in South Korea, with expectations for China to successfully host the next meeting in 2026, contributing to the APEC Vision 2040 [1][2] - The rise of protectionism and unilateralism poses significant challenges to global trade, making APEC a crucial platform for open dialogue among member economies [1] - Cooperation remains the central focus despite uncertainties in trade, with an emphasis on unexpected collaborations rather than divisions [1] - Discussions on tariffs and trade protectionism have been candid, with a broader focus on achieving high-quality growth through productivity and inclusive market structures [1] - China is recognized for its role in APEC, having previously hosted meetings and proposed initiatives like the Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP) [2] Summary by Sections APEC Meeting and China's Role - The upcoming APEC meeting in South Korea is significant, with China set to host the next informal leaders' meeting in 2026, building on past experiences [1][2] - The APEC Vision 2040 aims to create an open, vibrant, resilient, and peaceful Asia-Pacific community by 2040 [2] Trade and Economic Cooperation - The current global trade environment is challenged by protectionism, but APEC provides a platform for honest discussions about trade policies and expectations [1] - The focus is not solely on tariffs but also on fostering high-quality growth through enhanced productivity and service-driven economies [1] Regional Trade Agreements - Various regional trade agreements, such as CPTPP and RCEP, are viewed as pathways towards achieving the FTAAP, with efforts to promote understanding among member economies [2]

Core Insights - The company "Ming Ming Hen Mang" submitted updated listing application materials to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on October 28, 2023, and is expected to maintain its leading position in the snack food and beverage retail sector in China [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - As of June 30, 2025, the company reported a cash balance exceeding 2.394 billion yuan and a net current asset value of 2.827 billion yuan, indicating strong liquidity and efficient asset turnover [2] - The net operating cash flow for the first half of 2025 was 1.395 billion yuan, showcasing robust cash generation capabilities [2] - The inventory turnover days were only 11.7 days, significantly better than the industry average, highlighting effective supply chain management [2] Group 2: Market Position and Growth - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a gross merchandise volume (GMV) of 41.1 billion yuan and revenue of 28.12 billion yuan, with an adjusted net profit of 1.034 billion yuan [1] - The total number of stores reached 16,783, covering all 28 provinces, 1,327 counties, and all tiered cities in China [1] - The company is recognized as the first in the industry to surpass 20,000 stores as of September 2025, further solidifying its market leadership [1] - The company is positioned as the only representative from the snack retail sector among the top 10 in China's chain industry for 2024 [1][2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In September, the surplus of foreign exchange settlement and sales expanded, the supply and demand in the foreign exchange market were stable and active, enterprises' willingness to settle foreign exchange increased, and their risk management awareness improved. In the short term, the USD/CNY exchange rate will maintain a range-bound and slightly stronger trend. In the medium term, guided by the high-quality growth target of the 15th Five-Year Plan, the central parity of the RMB is expected to rise moderately [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Supply and Demand Relationship Analysis - **Foreign Exchange Market Supply and Demand Balance**: In September 2025, the surplus of bank foreign exchange settlement and sales was $51.023 billion, an increase from the previous value of $14.648 billion. Both the scale of foreign exchange settlement and sales increased. This expansion reflected strengthened trading behavior rather than being driven by single trade, indicating that the supply and demand structure in the foreign exchange market remained basically balanced [9]. - **Forward Foreign Exchange Settlement and Purchase Intentions**: In September, the foreign exchange settlement and sales market showed a pattern of stable exchange rate expectations, increased willingness to settle foreign exchange, and a marginal decline in foreign exchange purchase demand. The spot exchange rate of USD/CNY depreciated by 0.31% compared with the end of last month, and the average volume of inter - bank spot inquiry transactions decreased to $37.517 billion. The collection and settlement exchange rate rose to 63.12%, and the payment and purchase exchange rate decreased by 3.5 percentage points. The forward foreign exchange settlement signing amount increased by about $10.375 billion, and the forward foreign exchange purchase signing amount decreased by about $4.607 billion, pushing the forward net foreign exchange settlement balance to a new high [14]. - **Analysis of Foreign Exchange Settlement and Sales Structure**: - **Bank's Own Foreign Exchange Settlement and Sales**: In September, the bank's own foreign exchange settlement and sales changed from a surplus to a deficit of $734 million, which might be related to position management and forward performance. The activities of the bank's own foreign exchange settlement and sales had limited impact on the overall trend of foreign exchange settlement and sales [12][20]. - **Bank's Agency Foreign Exchange Settlement and Sales**: In September, the difference in domestic banks' agency foreign - related payments and receipts changed from a surplus to a deficit of $308.9 million. The surplus of the current account increased from $41.113 billion to $52.879 billion, with the goods trade surplus rising to $80.481 billion. The deficit of the capital and financial account expanded from $38.8 billion to $57.791 billion [24]. - **Deconstruction of September's Foreign Exchange Settlement and Sales**: - **Securities Investment**: In September, although the deficit of the capital and financial account in agency foreign - related payments and receipts expanded, the trading activity through the Stock Connect mechanism increased. The trading volume of Northbound Stock Connect reached 3.179574 trillion yuan, and the trading volume of Southbound Stock Connect was 6.830467 trillion yuan. The custody volume of RMB bonds by overseas investors also rebounded, reaching about 2.782832 trillion yuan by the end of August [26]. - **Goods Trade**: In September, goods trade under the current account was the main contributor. The global manufacturing PMI dropped to 50.8, indicating a slowdown in expansion. The US manufacturing PMI was 52.0, while China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4, remaining below the boom - bust line for six consecutive months. The uneven global manufacturing recovery limited the driving effect of external demand on China's exports [31]. Recent Views on Exchange Rates - **Short - term**: The US government shutdown led to the delay of major economic data release. The market re - evaluated economic momentum in a "data - lacking" state, and the US dollar entered an expectation - gaming stage. The exchange rate trend reflected a range - bound pattern under the phased repair of the Sino - US expectation difference. It is expected that the USD/CNY will remain in the range of 7.10 - 7.15, and the RMB has moderate appreciation momentum in the short term [4]. - **Medium - term**: The high - quality growth target of the 15th Five - Year Plan will be an important support for the long - term stability of the RMB. If domestic policies continue the path of stable growth centered on technological innovation and industrial upgrading, and the US growth slows down under fiscal constraints and the lag effect of monetary policy, the central parity of the RMB may rise moderately to around 7.00 [6].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Chinese Economy - **Key Focus**: Economic growth, consumption, fixed asset investment (FAI), property market, and trade dynamics Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Q3 GDP Growth**: The GDP growth for Q3 2025 softened to **4.8% YoY**, down from **5.2% in Q2**. This decline was attributed to weaker consumption and fixed asset investment, despite solid exports and industrial production [2][3][8] 2. **Deflation Trends**: Deflation persisted in Q3, with the GDP deflator narrowing slightly to **-1.0% YoY** from **-1.2% in Q2**. This indicates ongoing price pressures in the economy [2][8] 3. **Export Performance**: Exports showed resilience, growing **6.6% YoY** in Q3, up from **6.2% in Q2**. However, expectations for Q4 suggest a slowdown in export growth due to high base effects and global economic conditions [8][14] 4. **Consumption and Retail Sales**: Retail sales growth moderated to **3% YoY** in September, down from **3.4% in August**. The slowdown was influenced by high base effects from previous trade-in subsidies [10][11] 5. **Fixed Asset Investment**: FAI contracted by **-6.2% YoY** in Q3, a significant decline from **+2.1% YoY in Q2**. This contraction was driven by weaker manufacturing and infrastructure investments [13][30] 6. **Property Market Decline**: The property market continued to weaken, with property sales down **-10.5% YoY** in September. Property investment contracted by **-21.3% YoY** [9][30] 7. **Policy Easing Measures**: The government announced the issuance of **RMB 500 billion** in special bonds for infrastructure and strategic projects, alongside expected monetary policy easing with potential rate cuts [4][36] 8. **Future Growth Projections**: Q4 GDP growth is anticipated to decelerate further to around **4% YoY**, leading to a full-year growth estimate of **4.8%** for 2025 [3][30] Additional Important Insights 1. **Household Income and Consumption**: The household survey indicated slower growth in disposable income and consumer expenditures, which may further dampen consumption growth [2][10] 2. **Trade Relations**: Ongoing US-China trade tensions could impact export growth, with potential tariff increases posing risks to economic performance [28][29] 3. **Long-term Economic Planning**: The upcoming 4th Plenary Session is expected to set a slightly lower GDP growth target of **4.5-5.0%** for the next five years, focusing on high-quality growth and consumption [5][37] This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the Chinese economy.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that foreign institutions are optimistic about the A-share market, predicting a slow bull market and advising investors to shift from "selling high" to "buying low" [1][2][3] - Goldman Sachs believes that the MSCI China Index has rebounded 80% from its cycle low at the end of 2022, indicating a more sustainable upward trend for the Chinese stock market [2][3] - Morgan Stanley maintains a positive outlook for the CSI 300 Index until the end of 2026, driven by a gradual shift of household asset allocation towards the stock market [3] Group 2 - Foreign institutions are focusing on the "14th Five-Year Plan," which is expected to bring new opportunities to the A-share market, emphasizing the importance of expanding domestic consumption [4][5] - Morgan Stanley highlights the theme of "anti-involution" as a potential key focus of the "14th Five-Year Plan," which may include strategic goals for promoting high-quality growth and new productive forces [5] - UBS analysts suggest that the growth style may outperform the value style in the medium term, with a favorable risk-return profile for investing in the ChiNext Index [6] Group 3 - The focus on technology growth and "anti-involution" themes is increasing among foreign institutions, with a recommendation to prioritize growth stocks, particularly in private enterprises and AI sectors [6][7] - The report indicates that while themes related to supply-side factors have been well captured this year, opportunities in "anti-involution" and service consumption remain as additional themes [7]

Group 1 - UBS maintains an overweight rating on China within emerging markets, citing faster revenue and earnings growth compared to India, and improving capital return rates in the MSCI China index [1] - A-shares have experienced a style shift from "growth" to "value dividend" since October, influenced by US-China trade tensions and profit-taking in the tech sector, but the medium-term outlook for A-shares remains positive [1][3] - Foreign investors are closely monitoring China's 14th Five-Year Plan, particularly aspects related to "anti-involution," consumption promotion, high-quality growth, and the development of new productive forces [1][11] Group 2 - A-shares are showing structural differentiation, with major indices fluctuating, but foreign investors believe there is still high allocation value in the market despite recent tariff impacts [3][4] - The market's sensitivity to US-China trade tensions has decreased, and there is an expectation of policy measures to stabilize the market if significant volatility occurs [4] - Foreign investors favor industry leaders, with significant holdings in companies like Kweichow Moutai, Ping An, and Wuliangye, indicating a preference for stable, high-quality stocks [6][7] Group 3 - Foreign investors are increasing their positions in leading stocks, with notable increases in holdings for companies like Siyi Electric and Hai Da Group during the third quarter [8][6] - UBS expresses a preference for A-shares over H-shares due to their defensive nature against geopolitical tensions, maintaining a focus on growth styles as the main investment theme [10] - The upcoming policies in the 14th Five-Year Plan are expected to create potential opportunities in "anti-involution" and service consumption, which could drive cyclical improvements in various industries [12]

2025.10.21 本文字数：3357，阅读时长大约6分钟 作者 |第一财经 周楠 A股三大指数21日集体收涨，上证指数再次收复3900点。多家外资近日表态，继续看好中国市场，有国 际大行喊出"超配中国"。 瑞银日前公开表示，在新兴市场中继续给予中国超配评级，理由是，与另一新兴市场印度相比，中国 （企业）营收增长更快，每股收益增长同样较快，"即使忽略中国的AI及互联网股票，MSCI中国指数中 其余股票的资本回报率（ROIC）也在改善"。 瑞银证券中国股票策略分析师孟磊21日对第一财经记者表示，10月以来，A股经历了从"科技成 长"向"价值红利"的风格切换，影响因素包括中美贸易再次出现摩擦、投资者对组合进行再平衡，科技 板块前期涨幅较大、部分投资者获利了结等。但他认为，A股中期表现依然向好，"成长"风格可能跑 赢"价值"风格。 第一财经同时了解到，外资高度关注中国"十五五"规划，特别是"反内卷"、促消费、高质量增长和发展 新质生产力等方面的情况。 第一财经记者梳理上市公司三季报时还发现，部分外资三季度确实在行动，"瞄准"A股龙头股跑步入 场，部分个股的外资持股比例维持较高水平。比如，思源电气（002028.S ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a collective rise, with foreign investors expressing optimism about China's market, particularly highlighting the potential for growth in the A-share index compared to other emerging markets like India [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance and Investor Sentiment - The A-share indices collectively rose on the 21st, with the Shanghai Composite Index reclaiming the 3900-point mark [1]. - UBS has maintained an "overweight" rating on China within emerging markets, citing faster revenue and earnings growth compared to India, and improvements in capital return rates for the MSCI China Index [1][3]. - Since October, A-shares have shifted from a "technology growth" style to a "value dividend" style, influenced by factors such as renewed US-China trade tensions and profit-taking by investors [1][3]. Group 2: Foreign Investment Trends - Foreign investors have been actively targeting leading A-share stocks, with significant holdings in companies like Siyuan Electric, Huaming Equipment, and Hongfa Technology, each having over 24% foreign ownership [2][6]. - As of the end of September, major foreign-favored stocks included Kweichow Moutai, Ping An Insurance, and Wuliangye, with foreign institutional holdings reaching 85, 83, and 81 respectively [6]. - The banking sector remains a strong focus for foreign investors, with seven of the top ten A-share companies by foreign holdings being banks [6][7]. Group 3: Market Outlook and Strategic Focus - UBS believes that the A-share market will continue to perform well in the medium term, with growth styles likely to outperform value styles [9]. - Investors are encouraged to focus on companies with strong fundamentals and pricing power to navigate uncertainties in the trade environment [10]. - The upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to provide investment opportunities, particularly in areas like "anti-involution" and service consumption, which may drive cyclical improvements in various industries [10][11].

Group 1 - UBS maintains an overweight rating for China in emerging markets, citing faster revenue and earnings growth compared to India, and improving capital return rates in the MSCI China index [1][3] - A-share indices collectively rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index recovering above 3900 points, indicating positive sentiment from foreign investors towards the Chinese market [1][3] - Foreign investors are focusing on China's 14th Five-Year Plan, particularly on themes like "anti-involution," consumption promotion, high-quality growth, and the development of new productivity [1][10] Group 2 - Foreign capital has been actively entering the A-share market, particularly targeting leading stocks, with significant foreign ownership in companies like Siyuan Electric and Huaming Equipment, where foreign holdings exceed 24% [2][6] - The A-share market has shown structural differentiation since October, with foreign investors not overly concerned about the impacts of recent tariff changes, suggesting that A-shares still hold high allocation value [3][4] - UBS and other institutions believe that the current market fluctuations present opportunities for long-term investors, especially in sectors with stable earnings growth [9][10] Group 3 - Leading stocks remain the favorite among foreign investors, with significant foreign institutional holdings in companies like Kweichow Moutai and Ping An Insurance, indicating strong interest in industry leaders [6][7] - As of the end of September, foreign holdings in A-shares exceeded 100 billion yuan for 42 stocks, with CATL leading at 265.66 billion yuan, highlighting the preference for high-value companies [7][8] - The focus on growth stocks is expected to continue, with UBS suggesting that growth styles may outperform value styles in the medium term, providing a favorable risk-return profile for investors [9][10] Group 4 - The upcoming 14th Five-Year Plan is anticipated to emphasize supply-side measures and demand stimulation, with a focus on enhancing consumer income and improving the social security system [11] - The "anti-involution" theme is expected to drive cyclical improvements across various industries, potentially impacting the overall earnings targets for the CSI 300 index by 2025 [10][11]