周三北美盘尾盘，ADP数据意外下跌，增强了美国下周降息的预期，国际白银价格创下历史新高的 58.98美元后回落，最终收涨0.02%，报58.45美元/盎司。尽管在数据强化了投资者对美联储将于下周降 息的预期后，美元走软。 尽管国际白银在收复58.00美元之前跌至57.54美元的日低点，但上升趋势仍然保持不变。看涨势头依然 存在，但价格走势和相对强弱指标(RSI)之间的"温和背离"可能为回调铺平道路。 若回调行情触发，空方将首先瞄准前期阻力趋势线转化的支撑区域53.80-54.00美元，进而测试50日均线 50.25美元。 反之，若买盘强势突破59.00美元关口，下一目标将看向60.00美元，并有望刷新历史高位。 周四(12月4日)亚市盘中，国际白银货窄幅震荡，最新国际白银价格报58.54美元/盎司，上涨0.15%，截 至发稿最高触及58.75美元/盎司，最低下探至58.28美元/盎司，目前来看，国际银价盘内短线偏向震荡 整理。周三疲软的美国就业数据支撑银价走高，白银价格刷新历史高点，盘中一度达到58.97美元。 【要闻速递】 11月美国ADP月度就业报告显示，就业人数减少3.2万人，而市场原本预期增加4万人。 ...

Market Overview - The three major U.S. stock indices opened lower on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones turning positive while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq experienced slight declines [1] - Major tech stocks mostly fell, with Nvidia and Amazon dropping over 1% and Microsoft declining nearly 3% due to reported reductions in AI software sales quotas amid customer reluctance [3] - Netflix shares fell by 6% following the sale of 375,470 shares by its chairman Reed Hastings [3] Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market saw a collective surge, with Bitcoin rising above $92,000, reflecting a 3.89% increase [6][7] - Ethereum also experienced a significant rise of 6.67%, reaching $3,085, while other cryptocurrencies like Solana and XRP saw increases of 6.69% and 4.23% respectively [7] Economic Indicators - The U.S. "small non-farm" data exceeded expectations, indicating a surprising decrease of 32,000 jobs in the private sector for November [6] - The market is beginning to feel the impact of the potential new Federal Reserve chair, with Kevin Hassett being the leading candidate for the position, which may lead to a more dovish monetary policy [8]

金融类 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 股指： 昨日，A股市场震荡回调，有色和TMT板块跌幅居前。Wind全A下跌0.64%，成交额1.61万亿元，中证 1000指数下跌1%，中证500指数下跌0.87%，沪深300指数下跌0.48%，上证50指数下跌0.51%。随着6月 以来的流动性行情告一段落，市场重新聚焦基本面逻辑，目前以AI为首的新质生产力题材普遍对未来 三年的增长水平存在乐观预期，尤其是科技领域的上游硬件制造环节，供需错配下涨价预期明显，中期 盈利能力可观。但是，对应题材自6月以来涨幅均较大，临近年底缺乏进一步事件性催化，自11月逐渐 进入震荡行情。另一方面，以消费和周期题材为首的传统经济领域仍然处在震荡复苏的过程中，尽管存 在一些补涨的逻辑，但短期很难进入基本面牛市。海外科技股同样存在预期分化，英伟达业绩指引继续 强劲，谷歌也发布了升级版大模型，但AI应用层持续盈利能力受到质疑。随着美联储主席换届临近， 2026年如能超预期降息可能继续推动科技板块强势运行。在此背景下，市场成交量和波动率逐渐降低， 风险偏好下降，预计指数短期以震荡为主。 国债： 昨日国债期货收盘， ...

铜： 隔夜内外铜价冲高回落，国内精铜现货进口维系亏损。宏观方面，美国总统特朗普周二在白宫内阁会议 上表示，明年年初公布美联储新任主席，并在一场活动上暗示人选为哈塞特，市场认为鸽派代表人物哈 塞特若当选，将强化市场对鸽派押注，但货币刺激与通胀如何平衡则面临挑战。国内方面，关注即将召 开的中央经济工作会议。基本面方面，国内12月电解铜预估产量116.88万吨，环比增加5.96%，同比增 加6.69%，国内冶炼企业年底继续有冲产量的动作；需求方面，因铜价持续高位，终端订单有所放缓， 市场维系刚性采购需求。库存方面，LME库存增加2375吨至161800吨；Comex库存增加2351吨至391851 吨；SHFE铜仓单下降927吨至30568吨；BC铜仓单下降623吨至4879吨。美联储12月降息充分定价下， 宏观是否仍能维系乐观情绪未知，但从微观角度看，精矿短缺的故事支撑铜维系高估值，特别是CSPT 声明再次搅动国内精铜供给预期，但随着淡季来临，微观依然看不到需求的快速释放，因此价格能否持 续回升存在不确定性。 镍&不锈钢： 镍&不锈钢：隔夜LME镍跌0.91%报14740美元/吨，沪镍跌0.58%报117060元 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent release of the Federal Reserve's Beige Book serves as a critical indicator for the future direction of U.S. monetary policy, especially following a prolonged government shutdown and a lack of economic data [2][3]. Economic Activity - The Beige Book indicates that most of the twelve Federal Reserve districts experienced little change in economic activity compared to the previous period, with two districts showing "moderate decline" and one showing "modest growth" [2]. - Overall consumer spending in the U.S. has declined, except for high-end retail, while manufacturing activity has generally increased, although tariffs and uncertainty surrounding them remain obstacles [2][3]. Labor Market - Approximately half of the districts reported a weakening in labor demand, with wage growth remaining slow [2][3]. Price Pressures - The report highlights that rising costs due to tariffs have put pressure on manufacturing and retail sectors, leading to increased input costs [2][3]. Market Reactions - Following the Beige Book's release, Wall Street interpreted the contents as a clear signal for potential "hawkish rate cuts," resulting in significant gains across major U.S. stock indices [3][4]. - The Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen by 11.48%, the Nasdaq by 20.22%, and the S&P 500 by 15.83% year-to-date, reflecting the market's positive response to anticipated monetary easing [3]. Monetary Policy Outlook - The probability of the Federal Reserve restarting rate cuts in December has surged to 85%, with expectations that the Fed will prioritize achieving a 2% inflation target while also promoting full employment and economic growth [4][5]. - There is an ongoing debate within the Federal Reserve regarding the approach to inflation, with "hawks" advocating for a tougher stance and "doves" favoring a more lenient approach [4][5]. Economic Perspectives - There is a growing consensus that the Federal Reserve may continue to lower interest rates and increase tolerance for inflation to address the evident economic slowdown [5]. - Some economists argue that inflation can lead to higher wages and costs without necessarily eroding purchasing power, suggesting that a moderate level of inflation could benefit consumption, particularly for younger, debt-laden demographics [5][6]. Leadership Changes - The impending change in leadership at the Federal Reserve has amplified the consensus for potential rate cuts, with current White House economic officials advocating for immediate action based on available data [6].

Core Conclusion - The composition of the FOMC's 12 voting members is likely to be 4 doves, 4 hawks, and 4 neutrals, indicating a marginally dovish shift compared to the current composition of 3 doves, 4 neutrals, and 5 hawks [2][8] Group 1: FOMC Personnel Changes - The current Fed Chair Powell's term ends in May next year, with five candidates considered for the position, all of whom are dovish [3][9] - The candidates' winning probabilities are as follows: Hassett (57%), Waller (23%), Walsh (14%), Riedel (4%), and Bowman (1%) [3][9] - Powell's decision to remain as a board member after stepping down as chair could limit the selection of the new chair [3][11] Group 2: Board of Governors - Among the current governors, Waller, Milan, and Bowman are dovish, while Barr is hawkish, and Powell, Jefferson, and Cook are neutral [4][12] - Milan is likely to have his term extended, with low probability of Cook being dismissed [4][13] - The new chair's selection and Powell's potential continuation as a board member will influence the board's composition [4][14] Group 3: Regional Federal Reserve Presidents - The current regional Fed presidents are all hawkish, while the incoming presidents for next year include a neutral and three hawks [5][15] - Trump faces challenges in altering the appointments of regional Fed presidents through the board, making it difficult to change the FOMC's policy stance [6][16]

Core Viewpoint - The data released yesterday is clearly leaning towards a "dovish" stance from the Federal Reserve [1] Group 1 - The recent data indicates a shift in the Federal Reserve's approach, suggesting a more accommodative monetary policy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's Governor Ueda Kazuo indicated that the continued weakness of the yen may further increase inflation, as import prices rise due to the yen's depreciation, leading companies to be more willing to raise wages and product prices [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Implications - Ueda emphasized that the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on prices is more significant than in the past, necessitating the central bank to remain highly vigilant [1] - There is a growing inclination towards supporting an interest rate hike in December, especially if Ueda votes in favor, aligning with two hawkish committee members who called for a rate increase in the October meeting [1] Group 2: Committee Dynamics - Committee member Koeda Junko expressed hawkish views, indicating rising concerns about inflation risks within the policy-making body [1] - Although Deputy Governor Iwata Noriyuki maintained the status quo in the last meeting, he is still viewed as leaning towards hawkish policies [1] - Currently, only Noguchi Akira holds a firm dovish stance, while the new member, who is seen as centrist, is expected to align with the mainstream opinion led by Ueda [1]

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming changes in the Federal Reserve's leadership, particularly the retirement of Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, may lead to a more dovish stance in monetary policy, influencing the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) towards potential interest rate cuts [1][2]. Group 1: Leadership Changes - Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic announced his retirement effective February next year, leaving a key position currently held by a hawkish member [1]. - The appointment of a more dovish successor could shift the FOMC's stance towards further rate cuts, despite Bostic's non-voting status until 2027 [1]. - The Federal Reserve Board is expected to approve the reappointment of all 12 regional Fed presidents for new five-year terms starting March 1 [1]. Group 2: Potential Impact of Supreme Court Ruling - A Supreme Court ruling in January regarding the potential dismissal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook by Trump could create another vacancy, allowing for the appointment of a new member aligned with lower interest rate policies [2]. - Analysts do not anticipate dramatic changes in the confirmation process for regional Fed presidents, despite the potential for a new appointee [2]. Group 3: Current Voting Members' Stance - All four current voting regional Fed presidents lean towards a hawkish stance, with concerns about inflation remaining high [4][5]. - Boston Fed President Susan Collins and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem support rate cuts but emphasize caution due to inflation concerns [5]. - Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmieding and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee express higher thresholds for further rate cuts, citing persistent inflation [5]. Group 4: Future Voting Members' Perspectives - Incoming voting members, including the Philadelphia Fed President, may lean hawkish, with Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari expressing reservations about further rate cuts [6]. - Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Dallas Fed President Lori Logan also show hesitance towards rate cuts, focusing on inflation issues [6]. Group 5: Expected Divisions within the Committee - The composition of the regional Fed presidents is expected to be more hawkish, while the Board of Governors may lean dovish, leading to potential divisions within the committee [7]. - Three distinct factions are anticipated: a dovish group led by the new Fed Chair and certain governors, a hawkish group from regional presidents, and a more neutral group comprising other governors [7].

Core Insights - The main driver of rising yields is nominal economic growth, which is distinct from the yield increases caused by policy tightening [1] - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain current policy rates for an extended period, as indicated by Boston Fed President Susan Collins [1] - The uncertainty surrounding the December meeting outcomes is heightened due to a lack of official economic data, exacerbated by the government shutdown [1] Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Policy - Susan Collins emphasized that further easing should have a "high threshold" and suggested that policy rates may remain unchanged for a while [1] - Fed Vice Chairman Jefferson highlighted the need for caution as the Fed approaches neutral rates, indicating that the lack of data makes it prudent to be cautious [1] - There are currently 6 voting members supporting the maintenance of rates, while only 3 are in favor of a rate cut, with 3 non-voting members taking a wait-and-see approach [1] Market Reactions - The market's shift in expectations for rate cuts is driven more by the absence of data rather than positive economic indicators [1] - The current environment is characterized by a hawkish tilt in the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) response mechanism, despite a lack of positive adjustments in economic outlook [1] - Risk assets are feeling uneasy due to this hawkish sentiment, contrasting with the ideal scenario of a dovish Fed and a strong economy [1] Economic Indicators - The stock market's recent performance has been supported by a loose Financial Conditions Index (FCI) and AI-related stocks [1] - A tightening FCI driven by hawkish tendencies, coupled with rising real yields, could lead to challenging times ahead for the market [1]