美联储前副主席克拉里达：美联储FOMC的决策偏鸽派。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming selection of the next Federal Reserve Chair is becoming increasingly significant, with potential candidates including Scott Bessent, Kevin Warsh, Christopher Waller, and Judy Shelton, which may impact the Fed's independence and inflation targets [1][3]. Candidate Profiles - Christopher Waller has been a prominent figure in the Fed, advocating for a dovish stance and suggesting that tariffs will have a temporary effect on inflation, indicating a potential for interest rate cuts this year [2][3]. - Kevin Warsh, previously considered for the Fed Chair position by Trump, has criticized the Fed's quantitative easing policies and is seen as a potential candidate, although he has shown some flexibility in his recent statements regarding interest rate cuts [4][5]. - Judy Shelton, known for her controversial views advocating for a return to the gold standard and opposing Fed independence, could cause significant market volatility if nominated [6][7].

金十数据6月11日讯，"美联储传声筒"Nick Timiraos：5月CPI数据全线低于预期，核心CPI环比上升 0.13%，整体CPI环比上升0.08%。核心CPI同比增幅从2.78%升至2.79%，整体CPI从2.31%微升至 2.35%，同比数据所呈现的平稳态势夸大了这一数据的鸽派程度。 "美联储传声筒"：一个全线低于预期的五月CPI ...

Core Viewpoint - The selection of the next Federal Reserve Chair is becoming a focal point for the market, with increasing speculation around potential candidates and their implications for monetary policy [1][2][4]. Candidate Analysis - Scott Bessent, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, is being pushed by advisors within the Trump administration as a leading candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, although the White House has denied these claims [2][4]. - Current Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's term ends in May 2026, and there is growing interest in who will succeed him [5]. - Other potential candidates include Kevin Warsh, former Federal Reserve Governor; Kevin Hassett, current Director of the National Economic Council; and Chris Waller, current Federal Reserve Governor [9][10][11]. Market Impact - The concept of a "shadow Federal Reserve Chair" is emerging, indicating that the market may start reacting to the potential candidates as they become more defined [7][8]. - Deutsche Bank's report suggests that Trump's administration may favor a "dovish" candidate who aligns with his calls for interest rate cuts [13]. Candidate Preferences - Kevin Waller is noted for his dovish stance, advocating for ignoring tariff-induced inflation to prioritize interest rate cuts, which aligns with Trump's preferences [13][15]. - The report indicates that while all candidates may promise to lower rates, the real challenge lies in implementing such policies effectively [14]. Challenges Ahead - The next Federal Reserve Chair will need to navigate the complexities of maintaining the independence of the Federal Reserve while addressing political pressures [12][15]. - Candidates from within the government may face heightened scrutiny regarding their ability to uphold the Fed's independence and credibility in achieving inflation targets [15].

Group 1 - The Bank of England's recent policy stance has turned hawkish, significantly reducing expectations for interest rate cuts, with the probability of a June cut dropping from 50% to 4% [1] - Market expectations have shifted towards a greater likelihood of a rate cut in the third quarter, with current bets for an August cut averaging around 16 basis points (64%) [1] - The upcoming inflation reports may influence market expectations, with a potential downward surprise in inflation data possibly shifting sentiment back towards a dovish outlook [1] Group 2 - The short-term impact of the Bank of England's hawkish stance on the British pound is limited, with market focus shifting to the upcoming UK-EU summit, where Prime Minister Starmer aims to promote closer UK-EU relations [1] - The GBP/USD exchange rate has recently fallen below its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA50), indicating a prevailing bearish correction trend despite reaching oversold levels [1] - Any further upward movement in GBP/USD may be capped around 1.3340, with major resistance expected at 1.3405, while current trading is likely to remain within a range of 1.3220 to 1.3320 [2]

周二（5月6日）北美时段，现货黄金价格上涨靠近3400美元关口，创下近期新高，市场分析显示黄金多头似乎已重新 掌控价格走势。全球地缘政治紧张局势持续推动市场对避险资产的需求，同时本周三美联储利率决议将成为影响金价 的关键因素。数据显示，当前市场参与者预期美联储将维持利率不变的概率高达98.1%。因此，市场关注重点转向美联 储声明以及鲍威尔随后的新闻发布会。若美联储采取更为"鸽派"的立场，暗示近期可能降息，将可能对美元形成压 力，同时可能支撑贵金属价格走高。另一方面，如果美联储表示愿意继续维持利率不变，可能会对金价产生相反影 响，美元可能走强而黄金价格承压。 操作方面，目前行情突破到3400美元，技术面日线两连阳之后多头仍将进一步延续，因此操作上继续保持做多看涨， 下方有在3202上方做多单的可继续持有，目前短线支撑上移至3386一线，3386是前期阻力突破后转为支撑，早盘行情 回踩3386之上可逢低做多，继续看3430-3450一线。 本文由江沐洋供稿，以上内容属于个人建议，由于网络推送延迟性，因网络发文有时效性，文中建议仅供参考，据此 操作风险自担，转载请注明出处。 金价2025年以来一直保持稳健上升通道， ...

换资前言： 我还是那个一直走在市场一线的金晟富，不论你曾经多么辉煌，不论你曾经多么失败，但那都将成为过 去，一时失败应该是去找问题，而不是气馁，成功往往需要历练磨合，不论你是新手，还是老手，或者 是常胜将军，我相信每个人都需要学习帮助，往往成功的人是虚心好学的，拿出你的姿态，去完善自 己，这个市场想盈利不难，但是想持续盈利，我想需要花大量时间。在其职，谋其事，我一直孜孜不倦 的劝导，希望你们在这个市场能少走一点弯路，少错一单。即使我苦口婆心，但是投资的路还是要自己 走，学无止境，学到了经验才是你的财富。我很喜欢一句话，佛渡有缘人。我希望遇到能跟我一路走下 去的是有默契的人！ 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 黄金小时线图来看，亚盘符合一波续涨猛攻，午后调整至10均线3350企稳，欧盘又慢阳走高逼近亚盘高 点，这种形态依然很强，今晚大概率还有二次拉升； 以10均线3370之上作为首要支撑继续看涨，随着 每根收线，均线支撑会慢慢上移，需自己去参考；只要它不有效破位，则维持逼空拉升，3400突破也随 时会发生，冲破就容易继续猛攻至3420之上，若后半夜冲高回落，失守10均线，那么调整至中轨 ...