Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **Mid - to Long - term**: The speculative sentiment in the black - series commodity market has significantly cooled this week, with a mainly oscillating and weakening trend. The capital availability rate of construction sites has slightly increased by 0.27 percentage points but decreased by 3.36 percentage points compared to the previous period. The real - estate sector recovers slowly, and the steel demand side remains under continuous pressure. Steel supply is expected to shrink, but the short - term fundamental improvement is limited. The daily average hot - metal output has slightly increased, while the overseas ore shipment volume and the arrival volume at China's main ports have decreased. Future steel mill production restrictions are expected to affect the iron ore demand side. For glass and soda ash, the float glass start - up rate and weekly output are flat compared to last week, with continuous inventory accumulation and a weak supply - demand fundamental. Soda ash supply remains high, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand is difficult to change [69][73]. - **Short - term**: The main contracts of black - series commodities have shown an oscillating and weakening trend recently. Attention should be paid to the implementation of subsequent policies and real - estate data, and cautious and light - position operations are recommended. The main contracts of glass and soda ash have mainly oscillated within a range this week, and short - term band operations are recommended [70][74]. 3. Summary by Directory Black - series Weekly Market Review | Variety | Contract | Closing Price on 2025/8/8 | Closing Price on 2025/8/15 | Change | Percentage Change (%) | Spot Price | Basis (Unconverted) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | RB2510 | 3213 | 3188 | - 25 | - 0.78 | 3320 | 132 | | Hot - rolled coil | HC2510 | 3428 | 3439 | 11 | 0.32 | 3460 | 21 | | Iron ore | I2601 | 774 | 776 | 2.5 | 0.32 | 784 | 8 | | Coke | J2601 | 1734 | 1730 | - 4.5 | - 0.26 | 1620 | - 110 | | Coking coal | JM2601 | 1227 | 1230 | 3.0 | 0.24 | 1350 | 120 | | Glass | FG601 | 1196 | 1211 | 15 | 1.25 | 1250 | 39 | | Soda ash | SA601 | 1332 | 1395 | 63 | 4.73 | 1326 | - 69 | [3] Rebar - **Blast Furnace Profit**: On August 14, the rebar blast furnace profit was reported at 131 yuan/ton, a decrease of 46 yuan/ton compared to August 7 [7]. - **Supply Side**: As of August 15, the blast furnace start - up rate was 83.59%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points; the daily average hot - metal output was 240.66 tons, an increase of 0.34 tons; the rebar output was 220.45 tons, a decrease of 0.73 tons [15]. - **Demand Side**: In the week of August 15, the apparent consumption of rebar was reported at 1.8994 million tons, a decrease of 208,500 tons compared to the previous week. As of August 14, the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was reported at 83,767 tons [20]. - **Inventory**: In the week of August 15, the social inventory of rebar was reported at 4.1493 million tons, an increase of 264,500 tons compared to the previous week; the in - plant inventory was reported at 1.7226 million tons, an increase of 40,600 tons [25]. Iron Ore - **Supply Side**: In the week of August 8, the global shipment volume of iron ore was reported at 3.0467 million tons, a decrease of 15,100 tons compared to the previous week; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was reported at 2.5716 million tons, a decrease of 50,800 tons [30]. - **Inventory**: In the week of August 15, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was reported at 14.38157 million tons, an increase of 114,300 tons compared to the previous week; the inventory of imported iron ore at 247 steel enterprises was reported at 9.1364 million tons, an increase of 123,060 tons [33]. - **Demand Side**: In the week of August 15, the daily average ore - unloading volume of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was reported at 346,800 tons, an increase of 103,500 tons compared to the previous week. As of August 14, the trading volume at main ports in China was reported at 130,200 tons [38]. Float Glass - **Supply Side**: In the week of August 15, the number of operating float glass production lines was 223, the same as last week; the weekly output was 1,117,025 tons, the same as last week. As of August 14, the capacity utilization rate of float glass was 79.78%, the same as last week; the start - up rate of float glass was 75.34%, the same as last week [43]. - **Inventory**: In the week of August 15, the in - plant inventory of float glass was reported at 63.426 million weight boxes, an increase of 1.579 million weight boxes compared to August 8; the available days of in - plant inventory were 27.1 days, an increase of 0.7 days compared to the previous week [48]. - **Demand Side**: As of July 31, the order days of downstream glass deep - processing manufacturers were 9.55 days, an increase of 0.25 days compared to July 15 [52]. Soda Ash - **Supply Side**: In the week of August 15, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 87.32%, an increase of 1.91 percentage points compared to last week; the output was 761,300 tons, an increase of 18,400 tons compared to last week [57]. - **In - plant Inventory**: As of August 15, the in - plant inventory of soda ash was reported at 1.8938 million tons, an increase of 28,700 tons compared to August 8 [62]. - **Production and Sales Rate**: As of August 15, the production and sales rate of soda ash was reported at 96.23%, an increase of 5.54 percentage points compared to August 1 [66].

Summary of Conference Call on Black Commodity Market Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the black commodity market, focusing on coal, coke, and steel products, particularly in the context of recent market fluctuations and future expectations [1][2][27]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Dynamics**: The current price differences in black commodities are driven by the interplay between expectations and reality, with significant pressure from warehouse receipts [1][3]. 2. **Third Quarter Outlook**: The market is expected to experience wide fluctuations in the third quarter, influenced heavily by increased production from high-speed rail water [4][6]. 3. **Demand Verification**: The fourth quarter may revert to demand logic, necessitating verification of subsequent demand trends [6]. 4. **Low Inventory Impact**: Low inventory levels are crucial in supporting the industry, as all segments will replenish stock during price adjustments, reducing the pressure for price declines [7]. 5. **Export Opportunities**: Domestic price corrections have led to increased overseas demand, with export advantages when prices fall below 3,300 RMB/ton [8]. 6. **Steel Mill Orders**: Steel mills have secured orders covering August and September, limiting the incentive for price reductions despite administrative production limits [9]. 7. **Coking Coal Supply Constraints**: The coking coal market faces supply constraints due to low coal mine operating rates, providing strong bottom support for prices [10][34]. 8. **Coke Market Stability**: The fifth round of price increases for coke has been accepted, with production cuts and unfulfilled output expectations maintaining bullish sentiment [11]. 9. **August and September Trends**: August is viewed as a bullish month, while September may see a pullback if demand does not meet expectations [12]. 10. **Arbitrage Logic**: The arbitrage logic between rebar and wire rod remains intact, with potential strategies suggested for trading [13]. 11. **Steel Export Dynamics**: Recent changes in steel export opportunities have been noted, with pressure expected to remain manageable in the short term [14][21]. 12. **Policy Impact**: The political landscape and policy decisions, particularly regarding supply-side adjustments, are influencing market expectations and price stability [28][36]. 13. **Iron Ore Supply and Demand**: The iron ore market is currently in a tight balance, with supply issues affecting valuations and future price movements [30][31][32]. 14. **Price Predictions**: Future price ranges for iron ore and rebar are projected to be between 700-830 RMB/ton and 3,100-3,400 RMB/ton, respectively [23][29]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Sentiment**: The sentiment in the market is cautious, with uncertainty about whether the upward trend from the third quarter will continue into the fourth quarter [36]. - **Potential Risks**: The volatility in the coking coal market poses risks, necessitating close monitoring of supply and policy changes [35]. - **Long-term Outlook**: The overall outlook for black commodities remains focused on policy influences and macroeconomic conditions, with a need for careful observation of inventory levels and demand trends [28][36].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term macro enters a window period, the black series maintains a high - level consolidation cycle. The support from foreign ore supply weakens marginally. In August, foreign ore shipments gradually recover. Considering the current high blast furnace profits and the off - season but non - weak terminal demand, domestic demand is expected to remain relatively high in the short term. The supply and demand of iron ore are in a stage of balance, and port inventories tend to be stable or rise slightly. It is expected that the short - term iron ore futures price will fluctuate at a high level. The i2601 contract price will range from 745 yuan/ton to 780 yuan/ton, and the outer - market FE09 contract price will range from 98.5 to 103 US dollars/ton [2] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Supply - The short - term supply support weakens marginally. Foreign ore shipments will gradually enter a seasonal recovery cycle. After the maintenance period of BHP and FMG mines in Australia ends, their shipments recover, while Brazilian shipments weaken this period. The short - term arrival volume rebounds from a low level, increasing the immediate supply pressure [2] Demand - The domestic average daily hot metal output has declined for two consecutive weeks with an expanding decline. The current average daily hot metal output is 240.71 (a month - on - month decrease of 1.52). However, the current profitability rate of steel mills continues to rise, and the blast furnace profit level is relatively considerable. Short - term iron ore demand remains resilient, and the high domestic demand strongly supports the price. Attention should be paid to whether the hot metal output can remain at a high level in the later stage [2] Inventory - The daily consumption of imported ore at the steel mill end remains high. Due to the continuous rise in iron ore prices, steel mills continue to replenish their stocks. As the arrival volume drops to a relatively low - middle level, port inventories have significantly declined this period. In the future, with the recovery of shipments and the marginal weakening of hot metal output, it is expected that short - term inventories will generally tend to be stable or rise slightly [2]

Group 1 - The black commodity prices have significantly declined this week due to a retreat in market bullish sentiment, with coking coal futures dropping by 7.34% on the first trading day of August and a cumulative decline of nearly 20% for the week [1] - In the coal-coke-steel industry chain, coking coal prices have shown a strong upward trend, with the main factory price for Shanxi coking coal rising by 110 yuan/ton to a range of 1410 to 1480 yuan/ton, reflecting an increase of 8.24% compared to the previous week [3] - The overall steel market has experienced a rebound in July, with the national steel price averaging 3677 yuan/ton, an increase of 247 yuan/ton or 7.2% month-on-month [4] Group 2 - Analysts expect that infrastructure investment growth will remain resilient in August, driven by increased fiscal support and the commencement of major projects, which may lead to improved supply-demand dynamics in the steel market [5] - Despite the recent price increases, there are concerns about demand sustainability, as social steel inventories have risen by 7.8% month-on-month to 859.9 million tons by the end of July [4] - The market is anticipated to experience a correction in August due to rapid price increases, with potential for a rebound following the implementation of relevant policy measures [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Mid - to long - term: After continuous increases due to policy speculation, black - series commodities mainly showed a volatile correction this week. Market sentiment cooled, and the market logic gradually returned to fundamentals. For steel mills, the profitability rate continued to increase, daily hot metal output continued to decline, and overseas ore shipments rebounded. For glass, the start - up rate was flat with last week, and in - plant inventory continued to decline, but the fundamental changes were limited. For soda ash, production decreased month - on - month, but the oversupply situation continued, and the supply - demand fundamentals were poor, with recent fluctuations mainly following the chemical sector. Attention should be paid to the release and implementation of relevant policies [51][55]. - Short - term: The main contracts of black - series commodities had sharp price fluctuations recently, and it was recommended to operate with caution and light positions. The main contracts of glass and soda ash closed significantly lower this week, and short - term cautious observation was recommended [52][56]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Black - Series Weekly Market Review | Variety | Futures Closing Price Change | Futures Price Change Rate | Spot Price | Basis (Unconverted) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar (RB2510) | - 89 (from 3294 to 3205) | - 2.70% | 3370 | 165 | | Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2510) | - 66 (from 3456 to 3390) | - 1.91% | 3410 | 20 | | Iron Ore (I2509) | - 32 (from 811 to 779) | - 3.95% | 779 | 0 | | Coke (J2509) | - 134 (from 1735 to 1601) | - 7.72% | 1520 | - 81 | | Coking Coal (JM2509) | - 153 (from 1199 to 1046) | - 12.77% | 1250 | 205 | | Glass (FG509) | - 190 (from 1307 to 1117) | - 14.54% | 1320 | 203 | | Soda Ash (SA509) | - 161 (from 1408 to 1247) | - 11.43% | 1359 | 112 | [3] 3.2 Rebar - Profit: On July 31, the blast - furnace profit of rebar was 227 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan/ton compared to July 24 [7]. - Supply: As of August 1, the blast - furnace start - up rate was 83.46% (unchanged), the electric - furnace start - up rate was 62.82% (+0.64), daily hot metal output was 240.71 tons (- 1.52), and rebar production was 2.1106 million tons (- 0.9) [12]. - Demand: In the week of August 1, the apparent consumption of rebar was 2.0341 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 131,700 tons; the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 78,119 tons [16]. - Inventory: In the week of August 1, the social inventory of rebar was 3.8414 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 111,700 tons; the in - plant inventory was 1.6215 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 35,200 tons [20]. 3.3 Float Glass - Supply: As of August 1, the number of float - glass production lines in operation was 222 (unchanged from last week), weekly output was 1,115,225 tons (a month - on - month increase of 7050 tons). As of July 31, the capacity utilization rate was 79.78% (a month - on - month increase of 0.3 percentage points), and the start - up rate was 75% (unchanged from last week) [25]. - Inventory: On August 1, the in - plant inventory of float glass was 59.499 million weight boxes, a decrease of 2.397 million weight boxes compared to July 25; the available days of in - plant inventory were 25.5 days, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1 days [30]. - Demand: As of July 31, the order days of glass deep - processing downstream manufacturers were 9.55 days, an increase of 0.25 days compared to July 15 [34]. 3.4 Soda Ash - Supply: In the week of August 1, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 80.27%, a decrease of 2.75 percentage points compared to last week; production was 699,800 tons, a decrease of 24,000 tons compared to last week [39]. - Inventory: As of August 1, the in - plant inventory of soda ash was 1.7958 million tons, a decrease of 68,800 tons compared to July 25 [44]. - Production and Sales Rate: As of August 1, the production - sales rate of soda ash was 109.83%, an increase of 4.17 percentage points compared to July 25 [48].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current volatility in the black commodities market and the potential continuation of a strong market trend, featuring insights from a seasoned trader and founder of "Boundary Theory" [1] Group 1 - The black commodities sector is experiencing fluctuations, raising questions about the sustainability of the current strong market trend [1] - A live analysis session is being conducted by a trader with 9 years of practical trading experience, focusing on industry dynamics and future trends of black commodities [1]

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The recent increase in steel prices was triggered by factors such as coal environmental inspections in June, the "anti - involution" trading in July, and expectations from the "New Urbanization" conference. The weekly steel data on July 11 showed that production decreased with apparent demand, and inventory remained stable, indicating a balanced supply - demand situation in July. The market sentiment improved, leading to better spot demand due to traders' restocking. Future market trends depend on the tone of the Politburo meeting at the end of July and the valuation fluctuations in the futures market. The reference range for the hot - rolled coil main contract is 3150 - 3300, and for rebar is 3050 - 3150 [1]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: Steel prices generally increased. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China rose from 3160 to 3190 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil in East China increased from 3230 to 3280 yuan/ton. The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures contracts also went up [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of steel billets and some steel production processes changed. The profit of hot - rolled coils in different regions decreased, and the profit of rebar also showed a downward trend in some areas [1]. - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output decreased by 0.4% to 240.8 tons, and the production of five major steel products decreased by 1.4% to 872.7 tons. Rebar production decreased by 2.0% to 216.7 tons, while the electric - furnace production of rebar increased by 4.2% [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products remained almost unchanged, with a slight decrease in rebar inventory by 0.9% and a 0.2% increase in hot - rolled coil inventory [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: The building materials trading volume increased by 30.4% to 11.5 tons, but the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 1.4%, and the apparent demand for rebar decreased by 1.5% [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The 09 iron ore futures contract showed a strong upward trend. Although the terminal demand may weaken in the off - season, the current strong steel exports support the pig iron production. In the short term, iron ore will fluctuate with a slight upward trend, but in the long - term, a bearish view on the 09 contract remains. It is recommended to go long on the iron ore 2509 contract at low prices and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [3]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The cost of iron ore warehouse receipts and spot prices increased. For example, the cost of PB powder warehouse receipts rose from 766.7 to 792.0 yuan/ton, and the spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port increased from 725.0 to 748.0 yuan/ton. The 09 contract basis of some iron ore varieties decreased, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 6.7% [3]. - **Supply**: The global weekly iron ore shipment volume decreased by 10.8% to 2994.9 tons, while the 45 - port weekly arrival volume increased by 5.1% to 2483.9 tons. The national monthly import volume decreased by 4.9% [3]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4% to 239.8 tons, and the 45 - port daily average ore - clearing volume decreased by 2.0%. However, the national monthly pig iron and crude steel production increased [3]. - **Inventory**: The 45 - port inventory decreased by 0.4%, and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 0.8%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased by 5.3% [3]. Group 3: Coking Coal and Coke Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Both coke and coking coal futures showed an upward - fluctuating trend, and the spot market was stable with a slight upward tendency. For coke, after the fourth round of price cuts in June, the market expected the first - round price increase to be implemented. For coking coal, the domestic coking coal auction market improved, and the overall market showed a bottom - rebound trend. It is recommended to conduct short - selling hedging on the coke 2601 contract, go long on the coke 2509 contract at low prices after a pull - back, and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage for both coke and coking coal [6]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coke and coking coal futures contracts increased. For example, the coke 09 contract rose from 1456 to 1497 yuan/ton, and the coking coal 09 contract increased from 872 to 897 yuan/ton. The basis of some contracts decreased [6]. - **Supply**: The daily average coke production of the full - sample coking plants decreased by 0.4% to 64.1 tons, and that of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.6%. The raw coal and clean coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines increased [6]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4% to 239.8 tons. The demand for coke and coking coal was affected by environmental restrictions in Tangshan [6]. - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory increased slightly, with a significant decrease in the coking plant's coke inventory and increases in steel mills' and port inventories. The coking coal inventory of coal mines decreased, while that of coking plants and ports increased [6]. - **Supply - Demand Gap**: The calculated supply - demand gap of coke increased slightly by 2.9% to - 5.4 tons [6].

Core Insights - Coking coal futures have surged past the 900 mark, indicating a significant increase in demand and market activity in the black commodities sector [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Coking coal futures have shown a notable upward trend, breaking the 900 threshold, which reflects a strong market performance [1] - The black commodities sector is experiencing a sudden surge in activity, suggesting a potential shift in market dynamics [1] Group 2: Demand Factors - The increase in coking coal prices may be attributed to rising demand from the steel industry, which is a key consumer of coking coal [1] - Market analysts are observing a broader trend in black commodities, indicating that various factors are contributing to this heightened demand [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Expected to fluctuate widely with repeated expectations [4] - Rebar: Expected to fluctuate widely [4] - Hot-rolled coil: Expected to fluctuate widely [4] - Ferrosilicon: Expected to fluctuate widely with boosted spot sentiment [4] - Silicomanganese: Expected to fluctuate widely with boosted port quotations [4] - Coke: Expected to be slightly bullish with oscillations [4] - Coking coal: Expected to be slightly bullish with oscillations as inspection disturbances continue to ferment [4] - Steam coal: Expected to stabilize with oscillations as daily consumption recovers [4] - Logs: Expected to fluctuate widely with the main contract switching [4] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides investment ratings and trend analyses for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, steam coal, and logs, based on their respective fundamentals and market news [4]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's futures closing price was 716.5 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan or 1.56%. The previous day's positions were 679,900 lots, an increase of 25,675 lots. Spot prices of imported ores such as Carajás fines, PB fines, etc., all increased. The basis and spreads showed different changes [6]. - **Macro and Industry News**: From January to May, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide was 2.72043 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1% [6]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating neutral [6]. Rebar and Hot-rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: For rebar RB2510, the previous day's closing price was 2,995 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan or 0.98%. For hot-rolled coil HC2510, the previous day's closing price was 3,121 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan or 0.94%. Spot prices in different regions showed varying degrees of increase or remained unchanged. There were also changes in basis and spreads [9]. - **Macro and Industry News**: According to the weekly data of Steel Union on June 26, in terms of production, rebar increased by 5.66 tons, hot-rolled coil increased by 1.79 tons, and the total of five major varieties increased by 12.48 tons; in terms of total inventory, rebar decreased by 2.07 tons, hot-rolled coil increased by 0.99 tons, and the total of five major varieties increased by 1.14 tons; in terms of apparent demand, rebar increased by 0.72 tons, hot-rolled coil decreased by 4.44 tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 4.33 tons. In mid-June, the social inventory of five major varieties of steel in 21 cities was 7.76 million tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons or 1.3% compared with the previous period. In May, the exports of billets, steel bars, and wire rods were 1.372 million tons, 443,000 tons, and 1.018 million tons respectively, with year-on-year increases of 344.7%, 126.1%, and 27.3% respectively [10][11]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both rebar and hot-rolled coil have a trend intensity of 0, indicating neutral [11]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of different contracts of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese showed declines. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia also had corresponding changes. There were also changes in basis, spreads between near and far months, and spreads between different varieties [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: According to Ferro-Alloy Online, on June 27, the prices of 72 and 75 ferrosilicon and 6517 silicomanganese in different regions had different degrees of increase. UMK announced the manganese ore quotation to China in July 2025, with a decrease compared to June. South32 announced the offer price of South African semi-carbonate lumps in August 2025, with an increase compared to the previous month. A steel mill in Jiangsu finalized the purchase price of 75B ferrosilicon at 5,570 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous round. As of this Friday, the manganese ore inventory in Tianjin Port increased by 9,100 tons, while that in Qinzhou Port decreased by 14,600 tons, and the total inventory decreased by 25,500 tons [14][15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese have a trend intensity of 0, indicating neutral [15]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's futures closing prices of coking coal JM2509 and coke J2509 increased. Spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions showed different changes, and there were also changes in basis and spreads [17]. - **Price and Position Information**: The prices of coking coal in northern ports and the CCI metallurgical coal index on June 27 had corresponding changes. In terms of positions, on June 27, from the positions of the top 20 members of the Dalian Commodity Exchange, the long positions of the coking coal JM2509 contract increased by 2,107 lots, and the short positions increased by 1,830 lots; the long positions of the coke J2509 contract increased by 775 lots, and the short positions increased by 1,266 lots [17][19]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both coke and coking coal have a trend intensity of 0, indicating neutral [19]. Steam Coal - **Previous Day's Domestic Market**: The steam coal ZC2507 had no trading the previous day. The previous opening price was 931.6 yuan/ton, the highest was 931.6 yuan/ton, the lowest was 840 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 840 yuan/ton, a decrease of 51.4 yuan/ton compared to the previous settlement price, with 18 lots traded and 0 lots held [22]. - **Fundamentals**: The prices of imported steam coal in southern ports and domestic steam coal in production areas are provided. In terms of positions, on June 27, from the positions of the top 20 members of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, the long and short positions of the steam coal ZC2507 contract both decreased by 0 lots [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of steam coal is 0, indicating neutral [24]. Logs - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different contracts of logs showed different degrees of increase or decrease. The prices of log spot markets in different regions remained mostly unchanged [25]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On June 26, the US dollar index fell below the 97.0 mark, down 0.72% intraday, hitting a new low since February 2022 [27]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating neutral [27].

Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report - Black Series by Guotai Junan Futures on June 27, 2025, covering multiple commodities in the black series [1]. Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate within a range due to repeated expectations [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2][7]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to have wide - range fluctuations boosted by spot sentiment [2][11]. - Coke is expected to be volatile and on a stronger trend as sentiment is released [2][14]. - Coking coal is expected to be volatile and on a stronger trend as inspection disturbances continue to ferment [2][15]. - Steam coal is expected to have wide - range fluctuations as demand is yet to be released [2][19]. - Logs are expected to see intensified gaming as the main contract approaches delivery [2][23]. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's futures price closed at 705.5 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton, or 0.43%. The open - interest decreased by 17,723 lots. Spot prices of imported and domestic ores were mostly stable. The basis and spreads had minor changes [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On June 26, the US dollar index fell below 97.0, down 0.72% intraday, hitting a new low since February 2022 [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: Rebar RB2510 closed at 2,973 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton, or 0.10%. Hot - rolled coil HC2510 closed at 3,103 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton, or 0.39%. Spot prices in different regions had minor changes. The basis and spreads also changed [7]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On June 26, steel output increased, total inventory increased slightly, and apparent demand decreased. In mid - June, the social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities decreased slightly. In May, exports of billets, rebars, and wire rods increased significantly. In May 2025, national steel production had different trends [8][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of different contracts had small increases. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia increased. The basis and spreads changed [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There were price quotes for different grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions. UMK's July 2025 manganese ore quotation to China decreased. Xinyu Iron and Steel's new ferrosilicon purchase price increased [12]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 for both, indicating a slightly stronger trend [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Coking coal JM2509 closed at 819.5 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton, or 1.86%. Coke J2509 closed at 1,395.5 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton, or 0.58%. Spot prices of coking coal and coke had minor changes. The basis and spreads changed [15]. - **Price and Position**: There were quotes for coking coal in northern ports and CCI metallurgical coal indices. On June 26, the long - position of coking coal JM2509 increased more than the short - position, while the long - position of coke J2509 decreased and the short - position increased [15][17]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for coke and 1 for coking coal, indicating a neutral trend for coke and a slightly stronger trend for coking coal [17]. Steam Coal - **Previous Day's Trading**: The ZC2507 contract had no trading. The previous opening price was 931.6 yuan/ton, the highest was 931.6 yuan/ton, the lowest was 840 yuan/ton, and it closed at 840 yuan/ton, down 51.4 yuan/ton from the previous settlement price [20]. - **Fundamentals**: There were quotes for imported steam coal at southern ports and domestic steam coal at production areas. On June 26, the long - and short - positions of the ZC2507 contract remained unchanged [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [22]. Logs - **Fundamentals**: The prices, trading volumes, and open - interests of different contracts had various changes. Spot prices of different types of logs in different regions were mostly stable [23]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On June 26, the US dollar index fell below 97.0, down 0.72% intraday, hitting a new low since February 2022 [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [25].