Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The recent increase in steel prices was triggered by factors such as coal environmental inspections in June, the "anti - involution" trading in July, and expectations from the "New Urbanization" conference. The weekly steel data on July 11 showed that production decreased with apparent demand, and inventory remained stable, indicating a balanced supply - demand situation in July. The market sentiment improved, leading to better spot demand due to traders' restocking. Future market trends depend on the tone of the Politburo meeting at the end of July and the valuation fluctuations in the futures market. The reference range for the hot - rolled coil main contract is 3150 - 3300, and for rebar is 3050 - 3150 [1]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: Steel prices generally increased. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China rose from 3160 to 3190 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil in East China increased from 3230 to 3280 yuan/ton. The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures contracts also went up [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of steel billets and some steel production processes changed. The profit of hot - rolled coils in different regions decreased, and the profit of rebar also showed a downward trend in some areas [1]. - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output decreased by 0.4% to 240.8 tons, and the production of five major steel products decreased by 1.4% to 872.7 tons. Rebar production decreased by 2.0% to 216.7 tons, while the electric - furnace production of rebar increased by 4.2% [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products remained almost unchanged, with a slight decrease in rebar inventory by 0.9% and a 0.2% increase in hot - rolled coil inventory [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: The building materials trading volume increased by 30.4% to 11.5 tons, but the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 1.4%, and the apparent demand for rebar decreased by 1.5% [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The 09 iron ore futures contract showed a strong upward trend. Although the terminal demand may weaken in the off - season, the current strong steel exports support the pig iron production. In the short term, iron ore will fluctuate with a slight upward trend, but in the long - term, a bearish view on the 09 contract remains. It is recommended to go long on the iron ore 2509 contract at low prices and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage [3]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The cost of iron ore warehouse receipts and spot prices increased. For example, the cost of PB powder warehouse receipts rose from 766.7 to 792.0 yuan/ton, and the spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port increased from 725.0 to 748.0 yuan/ton. The 09 contract basis of some iron ore varieties decreased, and the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 6.7% [3]. - **Supply**: The global weekly iron ore shipment volume decreased by 10.8% to 2994.9 tons, while the 45 - port weekly arrival volume increased by 5.1% to 2483.9 tons. The national monthly import volume decreased by 4.9% [3]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4% to 239.8 tons, and the 45 - port daily average ore - clearing volume decreased by 2.0%. However, the national monthly pig iron and crude steel production increased [3]. - **Inventory**: The 45 - port inventory decreased by 0.4%, and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 0.8%. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased by 5.3% [3]. Group 3: Coking Coal and Coke Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Both coke and coking coal futures showed an upward - fluctuating trend, and the spot market was stable with a slight upward tendency. For coke, after the fourth round of price cuts in June, the market expected the first - round price increase to be implemented. For coking coal, the domestic coking coal auction market improved, and the overall market showed a bottom - rebound trend. It is recommended to conduct short - selling hedging on the coke 2601 contract, go long on the coke 2509 contract at low prices after a pull - back, and conduct a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage for both coke and coking coal [6]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coke and coking coal futures contracts increased. For example, the coke 09 contract rose from 1456 to 1497 yuan/ton, and the coking coal 09 contract increased from 872 to 897 yuan/ton. The basis of some contracts decreased [6]. - **Supply**: The daily average coke production of the full - sample coking plants decreased by 0.4% to 64.1 tons, and that of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.6%. The raw coal and clean coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines increased [6]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.4% to 239.8 tons. The demand for coke and coking coal was affected by environmental restrictions in Tangshan [6]. - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory increased slightly, with a significant decrease in the coking plant's coke inventory and increases in steel mills' and port inventories. The coking coal inventory of coal mines decreased, while that of coking plants and ports increased [6]. - **Supply - Demand Gap**: The calculated supply - demand gap of coke increased slightly by 2.9% to - 5.4 tons [6].

Core Insights - Coking coal futures have surged past the 900 mark, indicating a significant increase in demand and market activity in the black commodities sector [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Coking coal futures have shown a notable upward trend, breaking the 900 threshold, which reflects a strong market performance [1] - The black commodities sector is experiencing a sudden surge in activity, suggesting a potential shift in market dynamics [1] Group 2: Demand Factors - The increase in coking coal prices may be attributed to rising demand from the steel industry, which is a key consumer of coking coal [1] - Market analysts are observing a broader trend in black commodities, indicating that various factors are contributing to this heightened demand [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Expected to fluctuate widely with repeated expectations [4] - Rebar: Expected to fluctuate widely [4] - Hot-rolled coil: Expected to fluctuate widely [4] - Ferrosilicon: Expected to fluctuate widely with boosted spot sentiment [4] - Silicomanganese: Expected to fluctuate widely with boosted port quotations [4] - Coke: Expected to be slightly bullish with oscillations [4] - Coking coal: Expected to be slightly bullish with oscillations as inspection disturbances continue to ferment [4] - Steam coal: Expected to stabilize with oscillations as daily consumption recovers [4] - Logs: Expected to fluctuate widely with the main contract switching [4] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides investment ratings and trend analyses for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, steam coal, and logs, based on their respective fundamentals and market news [4]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's futures closing price was 716.5 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan or 1.56%. The previous day's positions were 679,900 lots, an increase of 25,675 lots. Spot prices of imported ores such as Carajás fines, PB fines, etc., all increased. The basis and spreads showed different changes [6]. - **Macro and Industry News**: From January to May, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide was 2.72043 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1% [6]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating neutral [6]. Rebar and Hot-rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: For rebar RB2510, the previous day's closing price was 2,995 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan or 0.98%. For hot-rolled coil HC2510, the previous day's closing price was 3,121 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan or 0.94%. Spot prices in different regions showed varying degrees of increase or remained unchanged. There were also changes in basis and spreads [9]. - **Macro and Industry News**: According to the weekly data of Steel Union on June 26, in terms of production, rebar increased by 5.66 tons, hot-rolled coil increased by 1.79 tons, and the total of five major varieties increased by 12.48 tons; in terms of total inventory, rebar decreased by 2.07 tons, hot-rolled coil increased by 0.99 tons, and the total of five major varieties increased by 1.14 tons; in terms of apparent demand, rebar increased by 0.72 tons, hot-rolled coil decreased by 4.44 tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 4.33 tons. In mid-June, the social inventory of five major varieties of steel in 21 cities was 7.76 million tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons or 1.3% compared with the previous period. In May, the exports of billets, steel bars, and wire rods were 1.372 million tons, 443,000 tons, and 1.018 million tons respectively, with year-on-year increases of 344.7%, 126.1%, and 27.3% respectively [10][11]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both rebar and hot-rolled coil have a trend intensity of 0, indicating neutral [11]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of different contracts of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese showed declines. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia also had corresponding changes. There were also changes in basis, spreads between near and far months, and spreads between different varieties [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: According to Ferro-Alloy Online, on June 27, the prices of 72 and 75 ferrosilicon and 6517 silicomanganese in different regions had different degrees of increase. UMK announced the manganese ore quotation to China in July 2025, with a decrease compared to June. South32 announced the offer price of South African semi-carbonate lumps in August 2025, with an increase compared to the previous month. A steel mill in Jiangsu finalized the purchase price of 75B ferrosilicon at 5,570 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton compared to the previous round. As of this Friday, the manganese ore inventory in Tianjin Port increased by 9,100 tons, while that in Qinzhou Port decreased by 14,600 tons, and the total inventory decreased by 25,500 tons [14][15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese have a trend intensity of 0, indicating neutral [15]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's futures closing prices of coking coal JM2509 and coke J2509 increased. Spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions showed different changes, and there were also changes in basis and spreads [17]. - **Price and Position Information**: The prices of coking coal in northern ports and the CCI metallurgical coal index on June 27 had corresponding changes. In terms of positions, on June 27, from the positions of the top 20 members of the Dalian Commodity Exchange, the long positions of the coking coal JM2509 contract increased by 2,107 lots, and the short positions increased by 1,830 lots; the long positions of the coke J2509 contract increased by 775 lots, and the short positions increased by 1,266 lots [17][19]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both coke and coking coal have a trend intensity of 0, indicating neutral [19]. Steam Coal - **Previous Day's Domestic Market**: The steam coal ZC2507 had no trading the previous day. The previous opening price was 931.6 yuan/ton, the highest was 931.6 yuan/ton, the lowest was 840 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 840 yuan/ton, a decrease of 51.4 yuan/ton compared to the previous settlement price, with 18 lots traded and 0 lots held [22]. - **Fundamentals**: The prices of imported steam coal in southern ports and domestic steam coal in production areas are provided. In terms of positions, on June 27, from the positions of the top 20 members of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, the long and short positions of the steam coal ZC2507 contract both decreased by 0 lots [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of steam coal is 0, indicating neutral [24]. Logs - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different contracts of logs showed different degrees of increase or decrease. The prices of log spot markets in different regions remained mostly unchanged [25]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On June 26, the US dollar index fell below the 97.0 mark, down 0.72% intraday, hitting a new low since February 2022 [27]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating neutral [27].

Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report - Black Series by Guotai Junan Futures on June 27, 2025, covering multiple commodities in the black series [1]. Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate within a range due to repeated expectations [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2][7]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to have wide - range fluctuations boosted by spot sentiment [2][11]. - Coke is expected to be volatile and on a stronger trend as sentiment is released [2][14]. - Coking coal is expected to be volatile and on a stronger trend as inspection disturbances continue to ferment [2][15]. - Steam coal is expected to have wide - range fluctuations as demand is yet to be released [2][19]. - Logs are expected to see intensified gaming as the main contract approaches delivery [2][23]. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's futures price closed at 705.5 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton, or 0.43%. The open - interest decreased by 17,723 lots. Spot prices of imported and domestic ores were mostly stable. The basis and spreads had minor changes [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On June 26, the US dollar index fell below 97.0, down 0.72% intraday, hitting a new low since February 2022 [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: Rebar RB2510 closed at 2,973 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton, or 0.10%. Hot - rolled coil HC2510 closed at 3,103 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton, or 0.39%. Spot prices in different regions had minor changes. The basis and spreads also changed [7]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On June 26, steel output increased, total inventory increased slightly, and apparent demand decreased. In mid - June, the social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities decreased slightly. In May, exports of billets, rebars, and wire rods increased significantly. In May 2025, national steel production had different trends [8][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of different contracts had small increases. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia increased. The basis and spreads changed [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: There were price quotes for different grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions. UMK's July 2025 manganese ore quotation to China decreased. Xinyu Iron and Steel's new ferrosilicon purchase price increased [12]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 for both, indicating a slightly stronger trend [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Coking coal JM2509 closed at 819.5 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton, or 1.86%. Coke J2509 closed at 1,395.5 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton, or 0.58%. Spot prices of coking coal and coke had minor changes. The basis and spreads changed [15]. - **Price and Position**: There were quotes for coking coal in northern ports and CCI metallurgical coal indices. On June 26, the long - position of coking coal JM2509 increased more than the short - position, while the long - position of coke J2509 decreased and the short - position increased [15][17]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for coke and 1 for coking coal, indicating a neutral trend for coke and a slightly stronger trend for coking coal [17]. Steam Coal - **Previous Day's Trading**: The ZC2507 contract had no trading. The previous opening price was 931.6 yuan/ton, the highest was 931.6 yuan/ton, the lowest was 840 yuan/ton, and it closed at 840 yuan/ton, down 51.4 yuan/ton from the previous settlement price [20]. - **Fundamentals**: There were quotes for imported steam coal at southern ports and domestic steam coal at production areas. On June 26, the long - and short - positions of the ZC2507 contract remained unchanged [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [22]. Logs - **Fundamentals**: The prices, trading volumes, and open - interests of different contracts had various changes. Spot prices of different types of logs in different regions were mostly stable [23]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On June 26, the US dollar index fell below 97.0, down 0.72% intraday, hitting a new low since February 2022 [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [25].