Core Viewpoint - Tianfu Communication is planning to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with founder Zou Zhinong at the forefront of this initiative, following significant growth driven by AI demand and a surge in stock price [1][10]. Company Background - Zou Zhinong, born in a rural family in Jiangxi, founded Tianfu Communication in 2005 after identifying a gap in the market for ceramic sleeves used in optical fiber connections, which were previously dominated by Japanese companies [2][3]. - The company initially focused on developing a ceramic sleeve product, overcoming technical challenges to achieve cost-effective production and replace imports [2][3]. Business Development - Tianfu Communication has expanded its business into two core segments: passive optical devices and advanced optical packaging, serving various sectors including AI data centers and telecommunications [3]. - The company has established a global presence with headquarters in Suzhou and Singapore, and production bases in Jiangxi and Thailand, exporting products to over 20 countries [3]. Financial Performance - Since its listing on the Growth Enterprise Market in 2015, Tianfu Communication has seen its market capitalization soar, reaching over 1600 billion yuan with a stock price increase of over 220% this year [6][11]. - The company reported a revenue of 3.9 billion yuan for the current year, a 63.63% increase year-on-year, attributed to the rising demand for optical devices driven by AI advancements [9]. Market Position and Strategy - Tianfu Communication positions itself as a core supplier of optical components rather than competing in the optical module market, allowing it to benefit from the overall growth in the industry without direct competition [9]. - The company has secured high-end optical chip production capacity from Lumentum, a supplier for Google, indicating strong future growth potential as demand for optical modules increases [10]. Industry Context - The surge in AI applications has significantly boosted the demand for optical modules, with Tianfu Communication benefiting from this trend alongside other companies in the sector [8][11]. - The competitive landscape includes notable players like Nvidia, with Tianfu Communication providing essential components that support the functionality of AI systems [9].

Group 1: Economic Outlook and Technological Advancements - The theme of the conference is "China's Determination in Changing Circumstances," focusing on predictions and strategies for the future [1] - Morgan Stanley's Chief Economist for China, Xing Zhiqiang, expresses confidence in China's technological self-reliance, particularly in sectors like electric vehicles and green transformation, highlighting China's first-mover advantage [1][3] - The Chinese automotive industry has become a global leader, showcasing the effectiveness of China's industrial cluster capabilities [3] Group 2: AI Development and Competitive Landscape - Xing Zhiqiang emphasizes confidence in China's AI sector, noting that despite some shortcomings in GPU computing power, China can leverage its data advantages and talent pool to improve algorithms [2][6] - China produces approximately half of the world's AI talent, with 5 million engineering graduates annually, surpassing the combined total of the US, Europe, and Japan [5] - The efficiency of China's AI models is comparable to those of the US, despite China investing only about 1/10 of the amount the US does in AI infrastructure [7][8] Group 3: Real Estate Market Strategies - To stabilize the real estate market, Xing Zhiqiang suggests implementing inventory reduction policies in first- and second-tier cities, particularly those with population inflows and stable rental yields [2][11] - Proposed measures include interest subsidies for homebuyers, potentially reducing the burden on consumers and aligning rental yields with mortgage rates [11] - The importance of real estate in breaking the low-price cycle is highlighted, drawing parallels to Japan's experience in the 1990s [10] Group 4: Consumer Spending and Social Security - Long-term consumer spending growth requires reforms in the social security system to alleviate concerns for residents, particularly for low- and middle-income groups [12] - Strengthening social security and ensuring equitable distribution are essential for releasing consumer potential [12] - The need for policies that support housing, education, and healthcare access is emphasized to enhance consumer confidence and spending [12]

2025 年 12 月 19 日 破局与重构格局下，配置逻辑再演绎 ---2026 年铜期货年度行情展望 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 报告导读： 君 安 期 货 我们的观点：预计 2026 年铜价将保持坚挺状态，可能依然存在上升空间，主要因美联储降息将托底经济，且供需存在缺口。 从宏观上看，美联储货币政策持续宽松，流动性将边际回暖。从微观上看，精铜供需均存在结构性变化，但供需从 2025 年 的过剩转为 2026 年的缺口。 研 究 所 我们的逻辑：美国产业政策和技术革命等领域的投资对利率和原材料等成本不敏感，持续投资具备确定性。同时，美国通胀 已经从高位回落，维持美国高利率的必要性下降，给了美联储更多信心。基本面上，预计全球冶炼原料短缺，影响精铜产量， 使得精铜供应从过剩转为缺口。从供应端看，铜矿生产扰动较大，进口废铜增速放缓，导致精铜供应增速放缓。从消费端看， 新质生产力和新能源行业贡献铜消费增量明显。美国数据中心建设引领行业趋势，持续带动铜的新增消费量 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment in the Hong Kong stock market has led to a surge in new fund issuance, with many funds shortening their fundraising periods to capitalize on the market dip, indicating a strong belief in the investment value of Hong Kong stocks [1][5]. Fund Issuance Trends - New funds are significantly shortening their fundraising periods compared to previous practices, with examples including the 富国港股精选混合 fund, which moved its deadline from December 19 to December 10, raising 1.83 billion yuan [2]. - Other funds, such as 鹏扬基金 and 路博迈基金, have also adjusted their fundraising timelines, reflecting a broader trend of rapid fundraising in the current market environment [2]. Rapid Fund Deployment - New funds are not only closing fundraising early but are also quickly building their positions in the market. For instance, the 汇添富恒指港股通ETF achieved a 69.53% stock position just a week before its listing [3]. - This contrasts with previous cautious strategies where funds maintained low positions prior to listing, indicating a shift in approach due to market conditions [3]. Market Sentiment and Strategy Adjustments - The adjustment in fundraising strategies is driven by significant market corrections, with many funds seizing the opportunity to invest in fundamentally strong companies despite recent price declines [4]. - The rapid changes in fundraising strategies, such as those seen with 鑫元基金, highlight the dynamic nature of market conditions and the urgency to capture rebound opportunities [4]. Positive Outlook on Hong Kong Stocks - Multiple fund managers express optimism about the Hong Kong market, viewing the current adjustments as a favorable entry point for future growth, particularly in sectors like AI, internet, and innovative pharmaceuticals [5][6]. - The valuation of the 恒生科技指数 is noted to be significantly lower than that of comparable indices, suggesting a high potential for returns [5]. - Specific sectors identified for investment include technology growth, financial services, and cyclical stocks, indicating a strategic focus on areas with perceived value [5].

（编辑 丛可心） 证券日报网讯 12月16日，永杰新材在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司产品主要应用于新能源锂 电池、电子电器和车辆轻量化等高端领域，其中动力锂电池结构件用铝板带被认定为国家制造业单项冠 军产品，因AI人工智能的快速发展，公司阳极氧化料、液冷板等热传输材料取得较好增长。公司产品 目前没有应用在航空航天领域。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rising long-term bond yields in major economies, indicating a lack of market confidence and potential financial instability, which could lead to a global financial crisis driven by debt issues [1][16][17]. Group 1: Long-term Bond Yields - Major economies are experiencing record high long-term bond yields, with the US 10-year Treasury yield surpassing 4.15%, Japan's 30-year yield reaching 3.445%, and Germany's 10-year yield at 2.836% [1]. - Rising yields reflect a market that is selling off bonds, necessitating higher returns to attract buyers, which could lead to a vicious cycle of increasing yields and declining confidence [2][18]. Group 2: Debt Dynamics - The high levels of debt in Western economies are largely driven by past economic growth fueled by borrowing, with the US playing a central role in this dynamic [4]. - The US government has accumulated a debt of $38 trillion, with annual interest payments alone amounting to $1.2 trillion [5]. - The global reliance on the US dollar as the world's reserve currency creates a closed loop where global earnings in dollars are reinvested into US Treasury bonds, allowing the US to continue its spending [6][7]. Group 3: Inflation and Interest Rates - The US has faced rising domestic inflation due to extensive quantitative easing (QE) measures and tariff increases, prompting the Federal Reserve to initiate a cycle of interest rate hikes [9][12]. - The challenge for the US government is balancing the need to control inflation while managing rising interest payments on its debt, which consumes a significant portion of fiscal revenue [12][15]. Group 4: Global Economic Implications - The dilemma facing major economies is whether to prioritize inflation control or economic growth, with potential repercussions for the global financial system [21][22]. - The situation is exacerbated by the interconnectedness of the global economy, where issues in the US can lead to widespread financial distress [17][18]. Group 5: Investment Strategies - The article suggests that in light of rising inflation and debt concerns, investors should focus on assets that generate real cash flow and can withstand inflation, rather than relying on long-term bonds [31]. - It emphasizes the importance of reducing debt and maintaining cash flow flexibility in a high-volatility environment [32]. - The need for a new economic growth breakthrough, particularly through technological advancements like AI, is highlighted as essential for overcoming current economic challenges [30][31].

近期，国际铜价持续刷新历史高位，伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜期货价格年内累计涨幅超30%。与此同时，全球铜库存告急，LME可用库存一度跌破10 万吨关键水平，引发市场对"铜荒"的担忧。 被称为"新石油"的铜，价格缘何大涨？其战略价值几何？供需矛盾如何缓解？围绕这些热点，科技日报记者采访了相关专家。 第一问：产业转型期缘何铜"不可替代"？ 铜的重要性，源于其独特的物理特性与全球产业变革的深度绑定，并成为清洁能源、数字经济、高端制造领域的刚需资源。 "铜等新资源矿产，是当代的'软黄金'，在新能源汽车、半导体芯片、国防科技等领域，不可替代、不可或缺。"长期从事铜等战略性矿产找矿研究的中国 工程院院士唐菊兴说。 从能源转型维度看，铜是脱碳进程的基石。国际能源署2025年发布的《关键矿产与能源转型》报告指出，每兆瓦陆上风电项目需铜3—5吨，光伏项目需铜 4—5吨，而一辆纯电动汽车的用铜量约80公斤，是传统燃油车的4—5倍。这意味着全球新能源汽车渗透率每提升1个百分点，铜需求将新增数十万吨。在 全球智能电网建设中，变压器、电缆等核心设备的铜耗量占比超过20%，可谓"无铜则无电气化，更无碳中和"。 2025年5月，联合国贸易 ...

中新网青岛12月10日电(记者 刘越)"嚯，好一个大家伙！" 刚刚踏入山东未来机器人有限公司的厂区内，"牢记嘱托·逐梦深蓝"网络主题宣传活动采访团成员们瞬 间就被一台"钢铁巨兽"攥住了目光。 只见它身形魁梧，黑白履带坚实有力，白色舱体上的黄色饰条勾勒出利落的工业线条。密集外露的管线 与精密的电控模块、推进器，无不彰显着其"海底工程师"的专业身份。 山东未来机器人有限公司厂区内的深海1500米铺缆作业机器人。中新网记者 刘越 摄 这台静卧于厂区的庞然大物，蕴含着山东深海科技自主创新的硬核实力。从硬核深海装备到创新试验平 台，从生态海湾到全域布局，采访团在威海触摸到了经略海洋的生动脉搏，更窥见山东向海图强的坚实 步伐。 科技赋能 深海"重器"强势突围 一条持续投入研发的攻坚之路，叠加从国家到地方的政策东风，让企业在深海赛道上实现了加速跑。而 一家突破国外垄断的深海科技企业的诞生，亦是山东这片热土致力于经略海洋、持续优化创新生态、培 育新质生产力的生动成果。 向海图强 走近观察，这台装备的技术含金量，远超出第一眼的视觉震撼。 山东未来机器人有限公司项目部总监姜立斌介绍，眼前这台深海1500米铺缆作业机器人是公司的" ...

"铜等新资源矿产，是当代的'软黄金'，在新能源汽车、半导体芯片、国防科技等领域，不可替代、不 可或缺。"长期从事铜等战略性矿产找矿研究的中国工程院院士唐菊兴说。 近期，国际铜价持续刷新历史高位，伦敦金属交易所(LME)铜期货价格年内累计涨幅超30%。与此同 时，全球铜库存告急，LME可用库存一度跌破10万吨关键水平，引发市场对"铜荒"的担忧。 被称为"新石油"的铜，价格缘何大涨?其战略价值几何?供需矛盾如何缓解?围绕这些热点，科技日报记 者采访了相关专家。 第一问：产业转型期缘何铜"不可替代"? 铜的重要性，源于其独特的物理特性与全球产业变革的深度绑定，并成为清洁能源、数字经济、高端制 造领域的刚需资源。 实际上，全球铜矿资源丰富，但分布极不均衡。 "全球约有558座运营铜矿山，2025年总产能约2930万吨;2024年全球铜矿含铜产量达到2291万吨，同比 增长2.3%。"中国有色金属工业协会副秘书长兼重金属部主任段绍甫介绍，2025年1至9月，全球铜矿产 量继续增长，部分新建项目逐步进入产能释放期。 但与此同时，全球多数优质矿山服务年限超过50年，资源禀赋、开采难度不断提升。全球铜矿品位由 2005年的1 ...

Core Insights - The article presents a deep conversation with the renowned entrepreneur and investor Duan Yongping, focusing on his philosophy of "being true to oneself" and its application in business, investment, and personal development [6][7]. Investment Logic: Understanding Business is Key - Duan emphasizes that the core of investment is understanding the business, sharing insights from his experience buying stocks like NetEase and Moutai, highlighting the importance of business models and corporate culture in investment decisions [18][21][23]. Corporate Culture and Succession: Integrity, Rationality, and Long-term Vision - The success of companies like OPPO and vivo is attributed to their hiring principle of prioritizing cultural fit over mere capability, and the importance of a user-oriented culture that focuses on doing the right things over profit maximization [24][28][27]. Marketing Philosophy: Honesty and Efficient Communication - Duan advocates for a straightforward marketing approach that avoids any form of deception, emphasizing the need to communicate effectively with users [45][50]. Education Perspective: Security and Boundaries - He discusses the importance of providing unconditional love to children while establishing boundaries, arguing against physical punishment as a means of discipline [60][65][68]. Reflection on Luck, Effort, and Understanding - Duan reflects on the role of luck in success, asserting that while opportunities exist, they must be met with effort and understanding of one's field [69][71][72]. Insights on AI and the Future: Tool or Threat? - The conversation touches on the rapid development of AI, recognizing its potential to enhance efficiency while also questioning its long-term implications for society [80]. Long-term Mindset: The Essence of a Calm Heart - Duan defines a calm heart as rationality and long-term thinking, suggesting that maintaining a long-term perspective can help navigate external distractions and challenges [82].