7月CPI、PPI数据出来了。7月CPI同比0%，好于预期-0.1%，也就是说和去年差不多，没涨也没跌。环 比-0.1%，弱于季节性。 八大项中，除食品项明显弱于季节性外，其余分项表现强于季节性。食品项价格明显偏弱，对CPI的拉 动大幅下行，虽然猪肉、鲜菜价格基本持平，但在基数效应的影响下，同比拉动率明显下滑。 7月核心CPI同比增加0.8%升至1年半以来最高，主要受需求修复及商品补贴结束的影响，服务和消费品 支撑核心CPI修复。核心CPI环比为0.4%，略强于季节性。服务方面，暑期出行需求旺盛(交通通信环比 +1.5%、教育文娱环比+1.3%)。毕业季也带动房租季节性上涨0.1%，但仍持续弱于季节性。交通工具燃 料3.5%,强于季节性，主要反映前期的油价上涨，家用器具(2.2%)、通信工具(0.3%)、交通工具表现均强 于季节性，延续前月上行趋势，可能与前期降价促销后的价格修复有关，汽车补贴也有收敛迹象，快递 涨价也对终端价格有一定带动。 再来看看PPI数据，7月PPI同比-3.6%，低于预期-3.4%，持平于前值-3.60%。环比-0.2%，较上月提升 0.2pct。PPI生产资料环比-0.2%，同比-4 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core Viewpoints - The low PPI data indicates that enterprises are absorbing part of the impact of tariffs. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September is rising, and Fed Chairman Powell may be removed. Geopolitical factors are still changeable. Gold and silver are recommended for hedging by buying on dips, and shorting the gold-silver ratio at high levels is advised [1][8][9] Summary by Related Contents Macro Data - On July 16, 2025, the US 6 - month PPI annual rate was 2.3%, the lowest since September 2024, and the monthly rate was 0%, the lowest since January. The EU proposed a nearly 2 - trillion - euro (2.3 trillion US dollars) budget for the next seven years [1] Futures Market - On July 16, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 778.00 yuan/gram, closed at 776.66 yuan/gram, down 0.48% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night - session closed at 779.28 yuan/gram, up 0.36% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 9,195.00 yuan/kilogram, closed at 9,152.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.79% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 764,716 lots, and the open interest was 430,521 lots. The night - session closed at 9,162 yuan/kilogram, up 0.02% from the afternoon close [2] Treasury Yields and Spreads - On July 16, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.50%, up 0.07% from the previous trading day. The 10 - year and 2 - year spread was 0.58%, up 3 basis points from the previous trading day [3] Exchange Positions and Volume Changes - On July 16, 2025, in the Au2508 contract, long positions decreased by 3,078 lots, and short positions decreased by 300 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts was 330,492 lots, up 14.60% from the previous trading day. In the Ag2508 contract, long positions decreased by 7,400 lots, and short positions decreased by 6,340 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 998,507 lots, up 0.78% from the previous trading day [4] ETF Holdings - On the previous trading day, the gold ETF holdings were 950.79 tons, up 3.15 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 14,819.29 tons, down 36.73 tons from the previous trading day [5] Arbitrage Tracking - On July 16, 2025, the domestic gold premium was 12.10 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 598.89 yuan/kilogram. The ratio of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold and silver main contract prices was about 84.86, up 0.31% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 87.81, up 1.81% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Data - On July 16, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 27,070 kilograms, down 9.97% from the previous trading day. The silver trading volume was 483,798 kilograms, down 1.22% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 8,366 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 6,600 kilograms [7]

Group 1 - The PPI data release caused a short-term decline in the US Dollar Index (DXY) by over ten points, currently reported at 98.62 [1]

Group 1 - The gold market continued its weak trend, with spot gold falling to around $3327 per ounce, down 0.5% from the previous trading day, and futures gold recording a 0.7% decline [1] - The June CPI data in the U.S. met market expectations, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year level of 2.7%, indicating that inflation is not "out of control" [3] - Concerns about rising inflation are growing, as the June CPI represents the strongest monthly growth in the past six months, despite not deviating from market expectations [3] Group 2 - President Trump emphasized the need for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, suggesting that consumer prices are low and should warrant a rate cut, which creates a policy expectation in the market [3] - The market is increasingly anticipating potential new tariffs from Trump, with proposed tariffs of up to 30% on goods from the EU and Mexico, which could lead to input inflation and increased price pressure [3] - The upcoming PPI data is crucial, as a strong rebound could influence whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates in September, potentially putting further pressure on gold prices [3][4] Group 3 - With U.S. Treasury yields stabilizing and some safe-haven funds returning to fixed-income assets, along with a strong dollar index, gold is facing additional headwinds [4] - Silver, platinum, and palladium also reflect a market waiting for clearer macro signals, with silver down 0.9% and platinum and palladium showing slight increases, indicating short-term technical corrections rather than a trend reversal [4] - Gold is currently in a delicate phase of mixed factors and increasing expectation divergence, lacking strong support from inflation protection buying and not being favored due to heightened risk aversion [4]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have seen a moderate increase due to a weakening dollar, as investors await clearer trade negotiations between the U.S. and its trading partners, along with upcoming PPI inflation data that may provide further guidance on the Federal Reserve's policy outlook [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Analysts note that the dollar has softened ahead of the U.S. PPI data release, leading traders to adopt a cautious stance after recent gains, which has contributed to the moderate rise in gold prices [1] - Despite new tariffs announced by Trump, the gold market has repeatedly fallen below the $3,400 mark, indicating potential resistance at this level [1] Group 2: Future Projections - ANZ Bank has projected that gold prices may consolidate in the short term but are expected to rise again to $3,600 per ounce by the end of the year [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a decline in silver prices, with the latest closing price at $37.70 per ounce, down 1.13% from the previous day [1] - As of July 15, the silver ETF holdings decreased to 14,856.02 tons, a reduction of 110.22 tons from the previous day, reflecting a bearish sentiment in the market [2] - The recent CPI data showed a month-on-month increase of 0.3% in June, which is the largest rise since January, leading to slight adjustments in market expectations regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][3] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's cautious stance on inflation suggests that the Fed may remain careful regarding interest rate cuts, despite the moderate inflation data [3] - The upcoming PPI data is anticipated to provide further market guidance, with potential implications for interest rate expectations and gold prices [3] - The silver market experienced volatility, opening at $38.16, reaching a high of $38.39, and closing at $37.70, indicating a significant downward movement after an initial rise [4]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury yields experienced a decline, with the 10-year yield dropping to 4.4472% and the 2-year yield falling to 3.9629%, indicating a shift in investor sentiment and market dynamics [1] Group 1: Treasury Yield Movements - The 10-year Treasury yield decreased by 8.91 basis points, closing at 4.4472% after a day of continuous decline [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield fell by 8.79 basis points, ending at 3.9629%, with a notable drop starting at 14:00 [1] - The 2/10 year Treasury yield spread remained roughly stable at +48.227 basis points, with significant fluctuations following the release of PPI data [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the release of U.S. retail sales data at 20:30, there was a brief uptick in yields before they hit a new daily low [1] - The 10-year yield reached a daily low of 4.4374% at 01:13, reflecting ongoing market adjustments [1] - The yield spread peaked at +51.942 basis points at 20:54 after the PPI data was published, indicating increased market volatility [1]

Core Viewpoint - The release of the U.S. PPI data has resulted in minimal short-term fluctuations in the DXY dollar index [1] Group 1 - The PPI data is a significant economic indicator that can influence market sentiment and currency valuation [1] - The dollar index (DXY) reflects the strength of the U.S. dollar against a basket of currencies, and its stability post-PPI release suggests limited immediate market reaction [1]