Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 index futures declined by 0.4% following the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) data, reaching a pre-market low point [1] Group 1 - The decline in S&P 500 index futures indicates market reaction to economic data [1]

Market Performance - The three major indices closed in the green, with both the Shanghai and Shenzhen indices reaching new annual closing highs[1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.34% to close at 3647.55 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.46% to 11291.43 points[1] - The ChiNext Index saw a significant gain of 1.96%, closing at 2379.82 points[1] - Total trading volume exceeded 1.8 trillion yuan, indicating strong market activity[1] Sector Performance - The majority of the Shenwan I-level industries experienced gains, with the top performers being Electric Equipment (+2.04%), Communication (+1.95%), and Computer (+1.94%)[7] - Conversely, the banking sector declined by 1.01%, and both Oil & Petrochemicals and Coal sectors saw minor decreases of 0.41% and 0.35%, respectively[7] Market Breadth - A total of 4,188 stocks advanced, representing 75.88% of the market, while 1,068 stocks declined[5] - The market saw 85 stocks hit the daily limit up, while 12 stocks hit the limit down[5] Economic Indicators - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained flat year-on-year in July, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 3.6%[2]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - July CPI year-on-year is 0%, better than the expected -0.1%, indicating stability compared to last year [1] - Month-on-month CPI decreased by 0.1%, weaker than seasonal trends, with food prices showing significant weakness [1] - Core CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year, the highest in 1.5 years, driven by demand recovery and the end of commodity subsidies [1] Group 2: PPI Analysis - July PPI year-on-year is -3.6%, below the expected -3.4%, consistent with the previous value [2] - Month-on-month PPI decreased by 0.2%, showing a slight improvement of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [2] - Specific industries like oil extraction and processing showed positive month-on-month changes, while non-metallic mining and manufacturing declined [2] Group 3: Macro Economic Outlook - The low CPI and PPI indicate that overall inflation remains low, allowing for a moderately loose monetary policy [3] - The bond market is expected to see a gradual upward correction in convertible bond valuations due to increased demand for fixed income [3] - The issuance pace of local government special bonds may accelerate, creating temporary supply pressure, but strong demand from long-term stable funds remains [3]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - July CPI year-on-year is 0%, better than the expected -0.1%, indicating stability compared to last year [1] - Month-on-month CPI decreased by 0.1%, weaker than seasonal trends, with food prices showing significant weakness [1] - Core CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year, reaching the highest level in 1.5 years, driven by demand recovery and the end of commodity subsidies [1] Group 2: PPI Analysis - July PPI year-on-year is -3.6%, lower than the expected -3.4%, consistent with the previous value [2] - Month-on-month PPI decreased by 0.2%, showing a 0.2 percentage point improvement from the previous month [2] - The decline in PPI is primarily due to pressures from energy, black metals, and construction materials [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - The low CPI and PPI indicate that overall inflation remains low, creating space for maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy [3] - The central bank is expected to continue using various tools to ensure reasonable liquidity, supporting the bond market's fundamentals [3] - Despite short-term market corrections due to risk appetite, the medium to long-term bond market outlook remains positive, influenced by economic fundamentals and policy direction [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core Viewpoints - The low PPI data indicates that enterprises are absorbing part of the impact of tariffs. The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September is rising, and Fed Chairman Powell may be removed. Geopolitical factors are still changeable. Gold and silver are recommended for hedging by buying on dips, and shorting the gold-silver ratio at high levels is advised [1][8][9] Summary by Related Contents Macro Data - On July 16, 2025, the US 6 - month PPI annual rate was 2.3%, the lowest since September 2024, and the monthly rate was 0%, the lowest since January. The EU proposed a nearly 2 - trillion - euro (2.3 trillion US dollars) budget for the next seven years [1] Futures Market - On July 16, 2025, the Shanghai gold main contract opened at 778.00 yuan/gram, closed at 776.66 yuan/gram, down 0.48% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night - session closed at 779.28 yuan/gram, up 0.36% from the afternoon close. The Shanghai silver main contract opened at 9,195.00 yuan/kilogram, closed at 9,152.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.79% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 764,716 lots, and the open interest was 430,521 lots. The night - session closed at 9,162 yuan/kilogram, up 0.02% from the afternoon close [2] Treasury Yields and Spreads - On July 16, 2025, the US 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.50%, up 0.07% from the previous trading day. The 10 - year and 2 - year spread was 0.58%, up 3 basis points from the previous trading day [3] Exchange Positions and Volume Changes - On July 16, 2025, in the Au2508 contract, long positions decreased by 3,078 lots, and short positions decreased by 300 lots. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts was 330,492 lots, up 14.60% from the previous trading day. In the Ag2508 contract, long positions decreased by 7,400 lots, and short positions decreased by 6,340 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts was 998,507 lots, up 0.78% from the previous trading day [4] ETF Holdings - On the previous trading day, the gold ETF holdings were 950.79 tons, up 3.15 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 14,819.29 tons, down 36.73 tons from the previous trading day [5] Arbitrage Tracking - On July 16, 2025, the domestic gold premium was 12.10 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 598.89 yuan/kilogram. The ratio of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold and silver main contract prices was about 84.86, up 0.31% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 87.81, up 1.81% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Data - On July 16, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 27,070 kilograms, down 9.97% from the previous trading day. The silver trading volume was 483,798 kilograms, down 1.22% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 8,366 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 6,600 kilograms [7]

Group 1 - The PPI data release caused a short-term decline in the US Dollar Index (DXY) by over ten points, currently reported at 98.62 [1]

Group 1 - The gold market continued its weak trend, with spot gold falling to around $3327 per ounce, down 0.5% from the previous trading day, and futures gold recording a 0.7% decline [1] - The June CPI data in the U.S. met market expectations, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year level of 2.7%, indicating that inflation is not "out of control" [3] - Concerns about rising inflation are growing, as the June CPI represents the strongest monthly growth in the past six months, despite not deviating from market expectations [3] Group 2 - President Trump emphasized the need for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, suggesting that consumer prices are low and should warrant a rate cut, which creates a policy expectation in the market [3] - The market is increasingly anticipating potential new tariffs from Trump, with proposed tariffs of up to 30% on goods from the EU and Mexico, which could lead to input inflation and increased price pressure [3] - The upcoming PPI data is crucial, as a strong rebound could influence whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates in September, potentially putting further pressure on gold prices [3][4] Group 3 - With U.S. Treasury yields stabilizing and some safe-haven funds returning to fixed-income assets, along with a strong dollar index, gold is facing additional headwinds [4] - Silver, platinum, and palladium also reflect a market waiting for clearer macro signals, with silver down 0.9% and platinum and palladium showing slight increases, indicating short-term technical corrections rather than a trend reversal [4] - Gold is currently in a delicate phase of mixed factors and increasing expectation divergence, lacking strong support from inflation protection buying and not being favored due to heightened risk aversion [4]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have seen a moderate increase due to a weakening dollar, as investors await clearer trade negotiations between the U.S. and its trading partners, along with upcoming PPI inflation data that may provide further guidance on the Federal Reserve's policy outlook [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Analysts note that the dollar has softened ahead of the U.S. PPI data release, leading traders to adopt a cautious stance after recent gains, which has contributed to the moderate rise in gold prices [1] - Despite new tariffs announced by Trump, the gold market has repeatedly fallen below the $3,400 mark, indicating potential resistance at this level [1] Group 2: Future Projections - ANZ Bank has projected that gold prices may consolidate in the short term but are expected to rise again to $3,600 per ounce by the end of the year [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a decline in silver prices, with the latest closing price at $37.70 per ounce, down 1.13% from the previous day [1] - As of July 15, the silver ETF holdings decreased to 14,856.02 tons, a reduction of 110.22 tons from the previous day, reflecting a bearish sentiment in the market [2] - The recent CPI data showed a month-on-month increase of 0.3% in June, which is the largest rise since January, leading to slight adjustments in market expectations regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][3] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's cautious stance on inflation suggests that the Fed may remain careful regarding interest rate cuts, despite the moderate inflation data [3] - The upcoming PPI data is anticipated to provide further market guidance, with potential implications for interest rate expectations and gold prices [3] - The silver market experienced volatility, opening at $38.16, reaching a high of $38.39, and closing at $37.70, indicating a significant downward movement after an initial rise [4]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury yields experienced a decline, with the 10-year yield dropping to 4.4472% and the 2-year yield falling to 3.9629%, indicating a shift in investor sentiment and market dynamics [1] Group 1: Treasury Yield Movements - The 10-year Treasury yield decreased by 8.91 basis points, closing at 4.4472% after a day of continuous decline [1] - The 2-year Treasury yield fell by 8.79 basis points, ending at 3.9629%, with a notable drop starting at 14:00 [1] - The 2/10 year Treasury yield spread remained roughly stable at +48.227 basis points, with significant fluctuations following the release of PPI data [1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the release of U.S. retail sales data at 20:30, there was a brief uptick in yields before they hit a new daily low [1] - The 10-year yield reached a daily low of 4.4374% at 01:13, reflecting ongoing market adjustments [1] - The yield spread peaked at +51.942 basis points at 20:54 after the PPI data was published, indicating increased market volatility [1]