Core Insights - The U.S. long-term bond funds are experiencing the largest capital outflow in five years, with a net outflow of $11 billion in Q2 2025, marking the highest since the market turmoil of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 [1] - This sell-off reverses a trend of average inflows of $20 billion over the previous 12 quarters, indicating deep investor anxiety regarding the long-term value of U.S. Treasuries [1] - The outflow reflects broader concerns about the long-term fiscal outlook, exacerbated by rising debt levels, inflation, and supply issues [1][2][3] Group 1: Debt Concerns - The U.S. is facing a "debt tsunami," with projections of trillions in additional debt over the next decade due to tax reforms, leading to accelerated Treasury issuance to cover deficits [1] - Market trust in fiscal sustainability is rapidly eroding, as highlighted by Goldman Sachs' chief credit strategist [1] Group 2: Inflation Pressures - Tariffs imposed by the Trump administration are expected to trigger imported inflation, which poses a significant threat to long-term bonds [2] - Long-term bonds are particularly sensitive to inflation, as rising prices erode the real purchasing power of fixed interest payments [2] Group 3: Supply-Demand Imbalance - The U.S. Treasury's accelerated borrowing to fill deficits has led to a supply-demand imbalance in long-term bonds, with prices dropping approximately 1% this quarter and 30-year yields nearing 4.82% [3] - Bill Gross warns that the 10-year Treasury yield is unlikely to break below 4.25% due to fiscal deficits and a weak dollar contributing to inflation [3] Group 4: Shift to Short-Term Bonds - In contrast to long-term bonds, short-term Treasury funds attracted over $39 billion this quarter, indicating a significant shift in investor strategy [4] - Investors are opting for shorter maturities to lock in yields while avoiding long-term inflation risks, with expectations of delayed rate cuts by the Federal Reserve until 2026 [4] - The preference for liquidity is heightened due to geopolitical tensions and tariff uncertainties, leading to a focus on more liquid short-term assets [4] Group 5: Global Implications - The sell-off in long-term U.S. Treasuries is prompting a global reallocation of capital, with institutions like PIMCO reducing exposure to the dollar and long-term bonds [5] - Following a downgrade of the U.S. sovereign rating by Moody's, sovereign funds are accelerating diversification into gold and non-U.S. bonds, with the 10-year Treasury yield spiking to 4.49% [5] - There is an increasing demand for risk compensation, as investors anticipate needing higher returns on the long end of the yield curve, despite the core status of U.S. Treasuries remaining intact [5] Group 6: Historical Context - The current scale of Treasury sell-offs has surpassed the "taper tantrum" of 2013 and the bond market crash of 2022, suggesting that if U.S. fiscal discipline continues to falter, the process of "de-dollarization" may accelerate, reshaping the global financial landscape [6]

分析师 汪 毅 证券研究报告 | 投资策略研究*专题报告 2025 年 06 月 30 日 投资策略研究 无法复刻的广场协议之下，杠铃权重再审视——周度策略行业配置 观点 一周热点事件复盘：数据映证美国经济"滞胀"，中国首张稳定币中资券 商牌照落地，小米 YU7 订单热度远超预期。本周（2025 年 6 月 23 日-2025 年6 月27日）A股呈现上扬姿态，有突破平台的迹象。上证指数周涨1.91%， 深证成指周涨 3.73%，创业板指周涨 5.69%，科创 50 周涨 3.16%，全市场 日均成交额上升到 1.49 万亿元。本周稳定币概念股成为最活跃的板块。 前半周受香港《稳定币条例》8 月生效、国泰君安国际获批虚拟资产全牌 照等政策利好刺激，板块热度升高。但后半周国际清算银行（BIS）和欧 洲央行警示稳定币的洗钱风险及金融稳定性隐患，叠加美国 SEC 强化审计 要求，导致市场情绪骤降，Circle 股价单日暴跌超 10%，国泰君安国际股 价亦有所回落，板块内出现显著分化。市场风格方面，A 股整体风险偏好 有明显回暖，政策驱动效应在券商板块和军工板块相对显著，在交易情绪 整体转暖的背景下，前期上涨较多的银 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年06月30日 相关研究报告 宏观经济专题研究 去美元化下的央行购金行为研究 去美元化下的储备资产重分配。（1）GDP 与货币国际地位的关联及例外 情况。理论上，各国 GDP 份额与外汇交易份额应呈相关性。但中国和美 国是明显例外，中国 GDP 占比 16.67%，外汇储备占比仅 2.29%；美国 GDP 占比 26.10%，外汇储备占比却达 58.42%，两国货币化水平均大幅偏离 经济地位。（2）金价与美元储备地位的关系。中长期看，金价与美元 储备地位高度相关，美元储备占比上升时金价往往下降，反之则上涨。 （3）央行购金行为的趋势。2022 年以来，各国央行黄金需求大增， 2011-2021 年央行年均黄金需求 509.1 吨，2022-2024 年平均达 1072.3 吨。2024 年各国央行持有的黄金储备接近布雷顿森林体系时代水平，按 市场价格计算，黄金成为全球第二大储备资产，仅次于美元。买入黄金 的央行主要是波兰、土耳其、印度和中国等新兴国家央行，2022 年后新 兴国家央行大幅增持黄金。 如何观测央行购金行为。（1）官方黄金储备数据的局限性。人民银行官 方黄金储备数据存在延 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market narrative surrounding Newmont Corporation (NEM.US) is misled by short-term concerns such as high all-in sustaining costs (AISC) and disappointing production guidance, overlooking the significant internal transformations the company has undergone in the past 18 months [1][27] Strategic Transformation - Following the $16.8 billion acquisition of Newcrest, Newmont has become the world's leading gold producer, establishing four core competitive advantages: unmatched scale effects, enhanced bargaining power with suppliers, and long-term cost resilience [2][3] Asset Portfolio Revamp - The true value of acquiring Newcrest lies in the asset optimization it triggered, with Newmont divesting six non-core assets expected to yield up to $4.3 billion, thereby strengthening its balance sheet and focusing on ten core tier-one assets [3][4] Realization of Synergies - Newmont has already achieved $500 million in synergy targets ahead of schedule, with operational efficiencies expected to continue reducing costs as integration progresses [5][19] Geographic Risk Diversification - The acquisition has allowed Newmont to restructure its asset portfolio in stable jurisdictions, effectively mitigating geopolitical risks associated with mining operations [6][9] Value Convergence Effect - If gold prices remain above $3,000 per ounce, the combined advantages of procurement, asset quality, operational synergies, and geographic stability will lead to unexpected profitability and margin growth [7][10] Gold Market Dynamics - Central bank gold purchases have been a significant driver of the current gold bull market, with 244 tons bought in Q1 2025, reflecting a strategic shift towards de-dollarization amid geopolitical tensions [11][12] Supply Constraints - The gold supply side faces unprecedented bottlenecks, with insufficient exploration investment and resource nationalism increasing operational challenges, leading to a structural supply-demand gap that supports high gold prices [13][14] Cash Flow Analysis - Newmont's free cash flow (FCF) generation capability is a core indicator of its transformation, with record FCF of $1.2 billion in Q1 2025, driven by high gold prices and optimized operations [19][20] Shareholder Returns - Newmont has established a shareholder-centric capital allocation model, maintaining a stable dividend and aggressive share buybacks, which enhance shareholder value and support stock price [21][23] Valuation Analysis - Despite its strong cash flow generation capabilities, Newmont's current valuation is significantly lower than historical averages, indicating potential upside as the market begins to recognize its long-term value creation narrative [24][27]

创近一个月新低后，现货黄金突然大反攻！ 盘中创近1月新低，午后反攻 6月30日，现货黄金盘中一度跌一个月新低，随后上涨突破3290美元/盎司，截至15:03，报3292.403美元/盎司，日内涨超0.5%。 受国际金价此前下跌拖累，国内品牌金饰价格全线跌破1000元/克心理关口。周大福、周生生、周六福等品牌足金饰品报价集中在978元/克至990元/克区 间。 | | | 国内现货 国际现货 黄金实物 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品牌 | 银行 | 回收 | | | | 品牌 | | | 价格(元/克) 日涨跌幅 | | | 周大福 | | | 989 | -0.90% | | 老凤祥 | | | 990 | -1.20% | | 周六福 | | | 978 | 0.00% | | 周生生 | | | 984 | -1.20% | | 六福珠宝 | | | 989 | -0.90% | | 美支章 | | | 989 | -0.90% | | 老廊 | | | 987 | -0.90% | A股黄金板块开盘震荡下挫，临近收盘跌幅收窄，最终下跌0.51%。其中赤 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31 号 黄金关注驱动博弈，白银谨慎对待 投资观点： -- 报告日期 2025-6-30 半年度报告 ⚫ 核心观点 黄金：中长期上涨趋势不变，但中短期驱动存在博弈。从长期 视角来看，特朗普对"外加征关税+对内减税"的政策组合将会继续 推升美国联邦政府债务规模，加剧美元信用长期走弱风险，叠加美 联储降息临近、全球地缘局势复杂、全球央行购金延续等，金价中 枢中长期上行趋势不变。但在经历了上半年波澜壮阔的行情后，黄 金中短期的驱动开始存在博弈。主要体现在：（1）在当下美国经济 尚未陷入衰退背景下，下半年关税政策谈判结果及实施和对内税改 法案推行对美国经济的相互对冲程度，市场将博弈美国经济滞胀 OR 中性偏弱，从而对金价运行节奏构成影响。（2）当前美国就业相对 稳健、通胀相对温和，但关税对通胀的滞后性影响仍存，因此我们 认为在评估完夏季数据前，美联储很难调整货币政策立场。降息预 期料将继续支撑贵金属，但时点或偏晚以及空间或有限下，则仍会 掣肘金价的短期上行空间。（3）尽管"去美元化"的宏大叙事将会 继续压制美元指数，但考虑到美元与美债收益率的背离以及美国相 对欧日经济增速差或仍然 ...

2025 年 6 月 30 日星期一 重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号 23 层； 023-67070250 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-50591197 地址： 电话： 1 市场有风险 投资需谨慎 | | 日 水 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 国债: | | 4 | | 股指: | | 4 | | 贵金属: | . | C ST | | 螺纹、热卷: | | C ST | | 铁矿石: | | ( | | | 焦煤焦炭: | | | 铁合金: | | ا ے | | 原油: | | 8 | | 燃料油: | | C | | 合成橡胶: | | C | | 天然橡胶: | | C | | PVC: | .. | | | 尿素: | .. | | | 对二甲苯 PX: | ... 11 | | | PTA: | .. | | | 乙二醇: | . | | | 短纤: | .. | | | 瓶片: | .. | | | 纯碱: | .. | | | 玻璃: | .. | | | 烧碱: | .. | | | 纸浆: | .. | | | 碳酸锂 · | | ...

去美元化下的储备资产重分配。（1）GDP 与货币国际地位的关联及例外 情况。理论上，各国 GDP 份额与外汇交易份额应呈相关性。但中国和美 国是明显例外，中国 GDP 占比 16.67%，外汇储备占比仅 2.29%；美国 GDP 占比 26.10%，外汇储备占比却达 58.42%，两国货币化水平均大幅偏离 经济地位。（2）金价与美元储备地位的关系。中长期看，金价与美元 储备地位高度相关，美元储备占比上升时金价往往下降，反之则上涨。 （3）央行购金行为的趋势。2022 年以来，各国央行黄金需求大增， 2011-2021 年央行年均黄金需求 509.1 吨，2022-2024 年平均达 1072.3 吨。2024 年各国央行持有的黄金储备接近布雷顿森林体系时代水平，按 市场价格计算，黄金成为全球第二大储备资产，仅次于美元。买入黄金 的央行主要是波兰、土耳其、印度和中国等新兴国家央行，2022 年后新 兴国家央行大幅增持黄金。 如何观测央行购金行为。（1）官方黄金储备数据的局限性。人民银行官 方黄金储备数据存在延迟，如 2022 年 5-10 月英国对华黄金出口逐步放 量至 7.34 万千克，但中国人民银行公布的官 ...

Core Insights - Gold has emerged as the best-performing asset class in the first half of the year, with spot gold prices rising by 25% [1] - The price of gold has been on a continuous upward trend for three years, with significant increases observed in 2023 and 2024 [2] - Major financial institutions like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs have optimistic forecasts for gold prices, predicting substantial increases in the coming years [3][4] Group 1: Price Trends and Predictions - Spot gold opened at $2,623 per ounce in 2023 and reached a peak of $3,499.45 per ounce on April 22, marking a rise of over 30% [1] - By June 30, 2023, the spot gold price was quoted at $3,280 per ounce, reflecting an 80% increase since the beginning of the year [1] - JPMorgan forecasts that gold prices could reach $6,000 per ounce by 2029, indicating an 80% increase from current levels [2][3] Group 2: Factors Driving Gold Prices - The migration of funds from U.S. assets to gold could create a supply-demand imbalance, as even a small percentage shift (0.5%) could lead to a demand exceeding annual gold production [3] - The acceleration of de-dollarization is evident, with central bank reserves of dollars expected to drop to 57.4% in 2024, while gold reserves are projected to rise to 18.3% [3] - Technical analysis shows that gold prices have doubled from $1,451 to $3,000 in just five years, indicating a faster growth rate compared to previous bull markets [3] Group 3: Central Bank Activity - Gold has become the second-largest reserve asset for global central banks, with significant increases in gold purchases expected to continue [5][6] - Central banks are projected to purchase over 1,000 tons of gold for the third consecutive year, with a notable increase in demand from emerging markets [6][7] - A recent survey indicates that over 90% of central banks plan to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, the highest percentage since the survey began in 2019 [7]

·西南期货：贵金属的长期牛市趋势有望延续 ·西南期货表示，当前全球贸易金融环境错综复杂，关税存在巨大不确定性。"逆全球化"和"去美元 化"大趋势，利好黄金的配置价值和避险价值。短期内，黄金价格走势受地缘政治冲突的影响。因此贵 金属的长期牛市趋势有望延续，考虑做多黄金期货。 ·铜冠金源期货：预计短期金银价格近期将延续调整 ·银河期货：贵金属总体上仍然处于震荡调整之中 ·RJO Futures：风险偏好改善占据主导背景下金价或进一步回落 ·FXStreet：风险偏好改善金价短期仍可能进一步下跌长期仍保持看涨基调 【机构分析】 ·铜冠金源期货表示，当前中东地缘风险缓和，尽管美加贸易关系再度紧张，但中美贸易关系有所缓 和，且美国核心PCE超预期上涨也支持美联储主席鲍威尔表示没有降息紧迫性的观点，降低市场宽松预 期，都对避险资产形成压力，预计短期金银价格近期将延续调整。 ·银河期货表示，近日，市场的焦点逐渐从伊以冲突转回美联储的货币政策路径以及关税谈判期是否可 能延长。货币政策路径方面，大多数美联储官员的发言暂时维持观望态度，但提及秋季可能降息，市场 对于下半年的降息预期有所提升，对下半年降息次数的押注上升至三次。总体 ...