半导体 半导体 2025 年 06 月 23 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 -38% -19% 0% 19% 38% 58% 77% 2024-06 2024-10 2025-02 半导体 沪深300 数据来源：聚源 相关研究报告 《半导体行业月度点评：下游回暖， 景气度改善可期—行业点评报告》 -2025.4.27 《关税反制政策落地，模拟芯片国产 化进程有望加速—行业点评报告》 -2025.4.7 《下游需求回暖+市场流动性注入，看 好 SoC 板块机会—行业点评报告》 -2024.10.9 半导体材料跟踪点评：盛合晶微进入辅导验收阶段， 关注先进封装材料投资机会 ——行业点评报告 陈蓉芳（分析师） 陈瑜熙（分析师） chenrongfang@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524120002 chenyuxi@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525020003 国产高端半导体封测龙头盛合晶微 IPO 进入辅导验收阶段 行 业 研 究 据证监会披露平台显示，盛合晶微 IPO 辅导状态变更为辅导验收。盛合晶微是 国内高端半导体封测龙头，核心业务聚焦中段硅片制造和三维集成先进封装环 节。 ...

中期策略：蓄力新高——聚焦龙头化、国产化、全球 20250622 摘要 全球资金呈现去美元化趋势，回流配置中国市场，包括港股和 A 股资产， 且自 2024 年 9 月以来，中国政策组合拳及与港交所联动，加速资本市 场制度改革，科创板、创业板制度变化积极拥抱科技新兴行业。 中国股票市场在基本面、产业、流动性、风险偏好和政策制度变化等多 重因素驱动下，有望迎来新的高点，行业配置方面，PCB、海外算力等 领域备受关注，同时"龙头化、国产化和全球化"成为未来发展的重要 方向。 弱美元周期下，美债需求下降，中日两国对美债和美股净流入减少，资 金流向黄金市场以规避地缘冲突风险。国内政策偏向稳定，宏观经济修 复需等待企业端贷款脉冲上行。 外资和国内资金是推动权益资产上行的重要增量，外资持有市值维持在 3 万亿以上，内资对港股定价权提升，南向资金成交占比维持高位，新 消费、新经济领域成为内资重点投资方向。 Q&A 当前中国经济面临哪些挑战和机遇？ 当前中国经济面临的挑战主要来自宏观经济基本面的压力，特别是贸易战之后， 地方消费数据、PMI 等指标表现不佳。短期内，传统经济层面仍处于摸底过程。 然而，从更长周期来看，中国的产 ...

关注半导体，脑机接口，深海科技 20250622 摘要 中伊冲突升级、陆家嘴论坛政策兑现以及沪指技术阻力位等多重因素叠 加，导致 A 股市场风险偏好下降，沪指承压。 宏观经济基本面复苏乏力，5 月社零数据虽超预期但持续性存疑，装备 制造业表现相对较好，地产等其他分项依然面临压力，制约市场上行空 间。 市场内生结构问题显现，小微盘超额收益持续走高导致拥挤度提升，量 化策略调整加剧小微盘下跌，拖累大盘表现，市场脆弱性增加。 季末及中报期前夕，资金从 Q1 的 TMT 方向转向 Q2 的新消费和创新药 方向，短期性价比不高导致部分资金离场，影响大盘走势和成交量。 港股流动性驱动特征明显，港元贬值引发市场对金管局收紧流动性的担 忧，新消费和创新药板块拥挤度较高，新股破发，港股整体调整对 A 股 产生联动效应。 A 股市场本周整体疲弱，仅红利或蓝筹价值板块相对抗跌，资金避险情 绪升温，流向银行和保险板块，地缘事件驱动油气、油运板块走强。 芯片半导体行业表现较强，科创板分层政策支持未盈利硬科技企业上市， 中美博弈加速芯片制造材料设备国产化，存储领域国产化预期提升。 Q&A 本周 A 股市场表现如何？有哪些主要影响因素？ ...

电子行业：部分存储涨价，AI 和国产化驱动行业增长 20250622 摘要 DRAM 市场预计 2025 年二至三季度持续上涨，受原厂停产 DDR3/ DDR4、补货需求及关税政策影响，服务器 DDR4 模组及消费电子 DDR4 颗粒涨幅显著。NAND Flash 方面，二季度受国际形势影响价格 上涨，三季度企业级 SSD 需求将成主要支撑。 AI 技术驱动存储市场高速增长，预计全球 AI 驱动存储市场将从 2024 年 的 287 亿美元激增至 2034 年的 2,552 亿美元，年复合增长率达 22.4%。中国存储产业链有望受益于 AI 自主可控政策，在利基 DRAM、NAND 和 NOR Flash 领域持续开拓。 HBM 相较传统内存具备更高带宽、更低功耗等优势，为端侧 AI 提供更 适配的存储方案。预计 2025 年 HBM 占据全球 DRAM 总产能比例超 10%，产值占比超 30%，市场规模预计从 2024 年的 6,979 亿增长到 2029 年的 8,934 亿，年复合增长率约为 5%。 CXL 技术通过内存池化等特性改善计算系统内部组件间通讯效率，预计 到 2028 年 CXL 新增市场规 ...

复合肥、尿素、氟化工、催化剂 20250622 摘要 三季度制冷剂长协价格落地，R32 报价 50,000 元/吨，410A 报价 49,000 元/吨，较二季度分别上涨 4,000 元/吨和 2,000 元/吨，虽略低 于内外贸零售价，但符合预期，对三季度业绩影响有限，出口需求和维 修市场是主要驱动力。 复合肥行业一季度销量超预期，头部企业业绩增长，二季度销量和吨毛 利预计优于预期。磷酸一铵及磷酸二铵出口价格上涨，预计二季度复合 肥企业业绩同比持稳或小幅增长，上半年同比增长，头部集中度提升是 关键因素。 国际尿素市场受俄乌战争影响，供给端受限，埃及、伊朗等地停产加剧 紧张，推动价格上涨。尽管北美需求减弱，但印度招标、欧洲和巴西的 需求接力支撑市场，国内尿素配额价值显著提升。 华鲁恒升价差底部回暖，前期风险释放，荆州布局高附加值产品，德州 关注提质增效，预计明年三季度投产贡献利润。己内酰胺副产带动相关 产品盈利提升，值得关注。 Q&A 近期国际局势对氟化工制冷剂市场的影响如何？ 二季度空调产销持续超预期，主流制冷剂价格在二季度呈现持续上涨态势。根 据首都在线最新报价，本周 R32 的零售和外贸价格已涨至每吨 ...

公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 近日，索尼发布2024财年业绩报告，因2024年主要客户销售额不及预期，叠加中国高端CIS厂商 竞争加剧，致使其CIS市场份额与上一年持平，原本计划在2025年实现60%市场份额的目标只能 无奈推迟。 这一消息不仅折射出当下CIS市场的格局变动，更串联起行业数十载的起伏轨迹。 回顾CIS市场发展史，可谓波澜起伏。早期，索尼、三星等日韩大厂凭借先发优势和技术壁垒在CIS 领域独占鳌头，几乎处于垄断地位。然而，随着时间推移和市场需求推动，以韦尔股份、思特威、格 科微等为代表的中国企业如雨后春笋般迅速崛起，在安防、车载、消费等领域突破技术瓶颈，正从追 赶者向竞争者蜕变。 如今，在全球CIS市场的版图中，中国高端CIS逐渐崭露头角，从日韩独大到中外对垒，正不断冲击 着原有的市场格局。 全球CIS竞争格局，变迁 在CIS产业早期，各国企业在该领域可谓多点开花。 1970年代，CCD（电荷耦合器件）技术率先实现图像传感商业化，但成本高昂且功耗较大。1976 年，中国台湾工研院引入CMOS工艺技术，开启了亚洲半导体产业的早期探索。 但市场风云变幻，中国厂商开始强势崛起，极大地 ...

Industry Overview - Isophthalic acid (PIA) is a white crystalline powder or needle-like crystal, widely used in various downstream applications, with polyester bottle chips being the largest demand market, accounting for over 40% of annual consumption [1][9] - China is the world's largest producer, consumer, and exporter of polyester bottle chips, providing a vast space for the isophthalic acid industry [1][9] - The production of polyester bottle chips is expected to grow by 18.17% year-on-year in 2024, reaching 15.49 million tons, which will drive a 13.52% increase in domestic isophthalic acid apparent consumption [1][9] Production and Capacity - The isophthalic acid industry in China entered a capacity expansion cycle from 2020 to 2021, with major players like Hengyi Petrochemical and Ningbo Taihua completing new capacity construction [7] - From 2022 to 2024, the production capacity is expected to stabilize at around 550,000 tons, with no new production facilities added during this period [7][19] Import and Export Dynamics - Historically, China has relied heavily on imports to meet isophthalic acid demand, with import volumes consistently above 200,000 tons [11] - However, in 2024, due to a significant increase in domestic production, imports are projected to decrease to 234,600 tons, a year-on-year decline of 12.89% [11] - The dependency on imports will drop to 34.47%, a significant reduction from 85% in 2018, indicating improved domestic production capabilities [11] Competitive Landscape - The isophthalic acid industry is characterized by high barriers to entry, with a concentrated oligopoly structure where a few companies dominate the market [13] - In 2024, Hengyi Petrochemical and Ningbo Taihua are expected to control over 90% of the total production capacity, with Hengyi Petrochemical leading at 300,000 tons, accounting for 54.55% of the total capacity [13][15] Market Demand Trends - The demand for isophthalic acid is expected to continue growing, driven by its applications in polyester bottle chips, alkyd resins, and unsaturated polyester resins [20] - The increasing production capacity of polyester bottle chips will further boost the demand for isophthalic acid [20] - Additionally, the push for high-performance materials in pharmaceuticals and electronic chemicals will create new growth points for market demand [20] Environmental and Sustainability Considerations - The isophthalic acid industry is facing pressure to transition towards greener and more sustainable practices due to stricter environmental regulations [21] - Companies are investing in environmentally friendly technologies and cleaner production processes to reduce waste and emissions [21] - Government policies are encouraging the adoption of green refining technologies, promoting a low-carbon and environmentally friendly development direction for the industry [21]

Group 1: Company Insights - Sains Environmental Co., Ltd. specializes in heavy metal pollution prevention, with a positive growth trend in its EPC business and stable gross margin levels [1] - The operational service business is experiencing high growth due to a number of EPC projects transitioning to the operational phase, with a strong upward trend expected to continue this year [1] - Xianheng International's core competitive advantages include a service penetration strategy, multi-channel brand promotion, high R&D investment, and team building [2] Group 2: Financial Performance - Xianheng International's cumulative cash dividend ratio over the past three accounting years is as high as 200%, with a planned dividend of 0.36 yuan per share in 2024, totaling 145 million yuan [2] - The company aims to enhance sales gross margin and control costs by deepening scenario recognition, introducing professional talent, optimizing the supply chain, and expanding into new fields [2] Group 3: Investment Management - Panjing Investment, established in 2016, is recognized as one of China's leading private equity fund managers, focusing on investment opportunities in Chinese listed companies and having a broad layout in overseas markets, especially in Chinese concept stocks [3] - The company emphasizes research-driven investment decisions, building a leading internal research team and maintaining strong relationships with top brokerage research institutions [3]

Core Viewpoint - The new materials industry is experiencing rapid growth, with significant opportunities arising from technological advancements, policy support, and the need for domestic production capabilities in response to international trade tensions [2][9][13]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The global new materials industry reached a value of $2.8 trillion in 2019, with a competitive landscape divided into three tiers: developed countries in the first tier, rapidly developing countries like China in the second tier, and emerging economies in the third tier [8][12]. - China's new materials industry generated a total output value of 6.4 trillion yuan in 2021, with an average annual growth rate of 23.1% from 2010 to 2021, and is projected to reach 7.5 trillion yuan in 2022 [9][10]. Group 2: Semiconductor Sector - The global semiconductor market was valued at $595 billion in 2021, with expectations to grow to $790 billion by 2026, driven by advancements in 5G and automotive electronics [3][16]. - The semiconductor materials market in China reached $11.9 billion in 2021, growing by 22.2% year-on-year, indicating a significant increase in domestic demand [31][32]. Group 3: Display Materials - The global OLED materials market is expected to grow from approximately $900 million in 2019 to about $2.6 billion by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23.6% [4]. - Domestic companies like Wanrun and Ruile New Materials are leading suppliers in the liquid crystal and OLED material sectors, with significant market shares [4][15]. Group 4: New Energy Materials - The new energy sector is rapidly evolving, with key materials such as composite copper foil, conductive carbon black, and sodium battery materials expected to see substantial market growth [5][15]. - The market for photovoltaic materials is projected to reach 20 billion yuan by 2025, driven by increasing demand for solar energy solutions [15]. Group 5: Environmental Materials - Traditional chemical applications are witnessing upgrades, with domestic companies like Zhongchumai and Jianlong Weina capitalizing on opportunities in molecular sieves and lubricating oil additives [6][15]. - Aerogels, known for their exceptional insulation properties, are gaining traction in construction and electric vehicle markets, with companies like Chenguang New Materials entering this space [6][15].

【DT新材料】 获悉，6月19日， 中科科乐 菏 泽生产基地迎来重要时刻— 首车乙烯基聚烯烃弹性体（EPOE）产品正式发运出厂 ，标志着我国高端聚烯烃材料国产化突破从"技术研发"迈向"市场应用"。 不同于传统依赖α-烯烃的合成路线，中科科乐基于 完全原创的镍基催化剂技 术，开创突破性的E-POE工艺，以乙烯作为单一原料，使用国产化助剂、常规的聚合装置及工艺即可实现 POE的制备 。旗下产品涉及聚烯烃弹性体、环烯烃共聚物和超高分子量聚乙烯等。 据悉，2024年11月，中科科乐5000吨/年乙烯基聚烯烃弹性体中试装置圆满中交，标志着 技术从"实验室小试"迈向"规模化量产"。短短半年时间，团队完成装置调试、试生产、客户送样等全流程。 除此之外，公司2025年还有多个在建项目新进展： 3月24日 ， 中科科乐聚烯烃弹性体封装材料总部（二期）项目 获得 合肥高新区经发局批复备案。项目建成后将主要生产满足光伏封装胶膜、聚丙烯增韧和混合塑料回收增容的 聚烯烃弹性体，实现高端聚烯烃的完全国产化。 说明 ： 本文 部分素材来自于能之光及网络公开信息，由作者重新编写，系作者个人观点，本平台发布仅为了传达一种不同观点，不代表对该观 ...