Group 1: Economic Downside Risks - The U.S. GDP for Q1 2025 showed an unexpected decline with a quarter-on-quarter annualized rate of -0.3%, against an expectation of -0.2% and a previous value of +2.4%[2] - Tariffs are identified as the largest source of uncertainty for economic downturn, with the U.S. accounting for 16% of global imports and 1/3 of global final consumption goods imports[3] - If U.S. import growth declines by more than 5% this year, it could significantly pressure the global economy, as historical data shows only three instances in the past 30 years where import growth fell below -5% during recession periods[4] Group 2: Consumer Spending Risks - The wealth effect in the U.S. is highly sensitive to stock market performance; a 10.4% drop in the Nasdaq in Q1 2025 could lead to a reduction in excess wealth by 27%-61%[5] - If the Nasdaq continues to decline or remains flat, consumer resilience may be severely impacted, with expectations for future stock and housing prices weakening[6] - In 2025, the growth rate of residents' salary income is expected to weaken to approximately 4.5%, down from 4.8% in 2024, indicating a challenging income environment for consumers[6] Group 3: Financial Market Risks - The U.S. financial market faces multiple risks, including tight liquidity in the money market and high leverage ratios, which could amplify market volatility and impact economic growth[8] - The potential for further financial market fluctuations exists, particularly in the context of significant political uncertainties such as tariffs[8] Group 4: Potential Upside Risks - Private investment may present a potential upside risk, as real estate investment is expected to stabilize within 1-2 years following the Fed's interest rate cuts[9] - Capital expenditures from major U.S. tech companies are projected to increase, with a 19% upward revision for 2025 compared to earlier forecasts, indicating continued investment in the AI sector[9]

金十数据5月7日讯，华创证券首席分析师姚佩表示，本次会议内容可分为两大部分：一是支持实体经 济，二是支持资本市场。针对实体经济的支持包括总量和结构两方面。总量方面，降准降息落地。结构 方面，中国央行在资金投向方面拥有更大的灵活性和指引性，当前更多倾向于科技创新和扩内需。针对 资本市场的支持主要体现在对"平准基金"和中长线资金入市的进一步坚定。姚佩认为，"一行一局一 会"打出组合拳，后续各部委或密集召开新闻发布会，可能形成"一揽子"政策的加速落地。对股市来 说，短期风险偏好的稳定比基本面修复更重要，此刻不必悲观，量比价更重要。过去10个交易日A股日 均成交额1.1万亿元，未来一到两周市场若持续放量，将构建更扎实的底部，带来风险偏好的加强和向 上反弹的信心。 华创证券："一行一局一会"打出组合拳 将带来市场风险偏好的加强 ...

Group 1: Market Risks and Responses - The Trump administration's policies since 2025 have led to increased volatility in domestic and international financial markets, particularly following the announcement of the "reciprocal tariff" policy in April, which raised recession fears for the US economy [1] - Although the implementation of the "reciprocal tariff" policy was postponed for 90 days, the underlying risks remain, prompting the need for domestic enterprises to adopt strategies to manage these risks effectively [1] Group 2: Derivative Tools and Strategic Management - China has established a comprehensive commodity industry chain, and the application of futures tools has evolved from basic risk hedging to more integrated risk management strategies [2] - By the end of 2024, 1,408 listed companies in China had announced hedging strategies, indicating a growing trend in utilizing futures for risk management [2] Group 3: Price Discovery and Market Analysis - China's futures market includes 71 listed commodity futures and 146 total futures and options, with over 2.5 million investors and a margin scale of 1.6 trillion yuan, providing valuable price signals for enterprises [3] - The characteristics of the price signals in the futures market—broad, long, precise, and deep—enable companies to enhance their market analysis and strategic planning [3] Group 4: Risk Management Tools - The futures market offers various risk hedging tools, including on-exchange futures, options, and over-the-counter swaps, allowing for personalized and refined risk management services for enterprises [4] - Companies in oversupplied sectors can utilize options strategies to improve sales prices while managing the risks associated with price increases [4] Group 5: Transitioning to Certainty in Operations - Enterprises can shift from a reliance on spot markets to a diversified approach that includes futures, options, and basis management, enhancing stability in their operations [6] - This transition allows for a multi-faceted management approach, incorporating exposure management, basis management, volatility management, and scale management [6] Group 6: Enhanced Risk Management Practices - The recent volatility in commodity prices has heightened the need for improved risk management capabilities within companies, necessitating a structured approach to managing both predictable and unpredictable risks [7] - Companies should develop or refine their risk management processes to better handle market uncertainties [7] Group 7: Collaborative Ecosystem Development - China's futures market has developed a mature service ecosystem, and enterprises are encouraged to collaborate with various institutions to create a synergistic business model that integrates price, tools, funds, information, and goods [8] - Futures companies are focusing on enhancing their service capabilities, emphasizing professional and detail-oriented intermediary services to improve client engagement [8] Group 8: Customized Risk Management Solutions - Futures companies are tasked with providing tailored risk management solutions that align with the unique needs of enterprises, utilizing a combination of futures, options, and swaps to optimize risk management strategies [9] - The integration of financial technology, such as AI and big data, is being leveraged to offer real-time risk monitoring and dynamic strategy adjustments for enterprises [9] Group 9: Trading Service Innovations - The competitive landscape of futures brokerage has led companies to seek new growth avenues, utilizing their research and risk management strengths to enhance client wealth and participate in risk-managed procurement and sales [10] - This approach allows futures companies to better serve the operational needs of enterprises while also creating new revenue streams [10]

廖市无双：节后市场能否走出主升浪？20250505 摘要 • 上证指数在 3,140-3,500 点区间震荡，中枢约 3,330-3,340 点，清明节 后下翻修复，上方套牢盘集中在 3,300 点以上，反弹阻力逐渐增大，形成 楔形形态，补缺口难度增加。关注外部利好能否加速突破，否则可能转折 向下。 • 节前三个交易日市场窄幅震荡，上证 50 微跌，成长指数反弹。上证 50 已 补缺口并超涨，蓝筹股指数未能表达趋势性变化，区间震荡偏空。恒生科 技指数压力位对应跳空缺口上沿，受中美贸易紧张局势影响，存在抛售压 力，预计 4 月 27 日前仍区间震荡。 • 未来市场走势以区间震荡为主，支撑位在跳空缺口下沿，压力位在跳空缺 口上沿（约 3,350-3,340 点）。中证 500、1,000 和国证 2000 震荡反映 市场交易心理，投资者认为"有缺必补"，且前期风险偏好低，集中在自 主可控、内需板块，风险偏好回升后，这些板块成为补涨主战场。 • 市场风险偏好提高，成长风格优于价值风格。上证 50 已补缺，中证 1,000、国证 2000 仍有较大缺口。前期受压制的 AI、机器人等题材开始 表现强劲，资金转向需要补涨 ...

今年，美国的对冲基金疯狂地做空私募贷款机构，而且已经赚了17亿美元。 5月4日，据媒体报道，今年以来，美国的七家最大直接贷款机构（如阿波罗全球管理公司、Ares资管公 司和Blue Owl资本公司）正面临空头投资者的强力冲击。据S3 Partners LLC的数据，空头投资者从这些 机构的押注中已经获得了17亿美元的账面收益。 "如果我们真的陷入经济衰退，另类资产管理公司的风险将非常大。如果公司收入下降，现 金流下降，这意味着杠杆率上升，自由现金流就会消失。" 有人悲观就有人乐观。穆迪评级私募信贷团队副总裁Clay Montgomery表示，商业发展公司（一种私人 贷款机构）杠杆率低，就算经济衰退要减记投资组合，也有资本缓冲。但从股价表现来看，资产管理公 司的股价今年普遍疲软。 PIK贷款的高估问题 除此之外，还有一个不容忽视的潜在风险——直接贷款的估值。国际清算银行去年指出，向美国证券交 易委员会报告数据的私募信贷基金中，只有40%使用第三方评估。 管理620亿美元资产的Adams Street的Jeffrey Diehl和Bill Sacher上周在一份报告中写道： 私募贷款机构的运作模式通常是为中小企业 ...

金价周四(5月1日)暴跌至两周低点，主因是贸易紧张局势有趋缓的迹象。由于市场风险偏好改善，周四北美交易时段金价一度 暴跌2%。美国与其他国家之间的贸易紧张局势有所缓解，令投资者在本周剩余时间保持乐观。加上美元走强、美债收益率飙升 也打击了金价。 5.1号策略通知了3267空单，最高反弹3252没有挂上！实仓学院通知3236进场，止盈3215！ | 赵兴言: 黄金破位下跌征兆已现! 黄金回调仍在继续! | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-05-01 10:54:44 定时发布:立即发布 | 嵩顶 | 修改 | 册除 | | 贵金属 ◎ 财经号阅读 4644 审核状态:审核通过 | | | | | 赵兴言：黄金四测3260关键支撑! 破位则有大瀑布了! | | | | | 2025-04-30 20:42:31 | 謂顶 | 修改 | 删除 | | 贵金属 ◎ 财经号阅读 3349 审核状态:审核通过 | | | | | 赵兴言：全网公开，黄金3323-26空单再度迎来收获！ | | | | | 2025-04-30 16:34:12 定时发布:立即发布 | 嵩顶 | ...

由于市场风险偏好整体改善和美国制造业景气指数带来支撑，1日美元兑一揽子货币全面走高，美元指 数在隔夜市场上涨，当日上午涨幅显著扩大，随后窄幅盘整，尾盘时美元指数显著上涨。 衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天上涨0.78%，在汇市尾市收于100.246。 美国供应管理学会当日发布的数据显示，美国4月份制造业景气指数为48.7，高于市场预期的47.9，但低 于3月份的49。 Jayati Bharadwaj说，此前已经指出美元可能在近期反弹，这可能为做空美元提供更好的入场条件。特朗 普政府可能已经意识到他们在关税政策上用力过猛，并正在试图刻画进行潜在谈判的图景。 截至纽约汇市尾市，1欧元兑换1.1286美元，低于前一交易日的1.1348美元；1英镑兑换1.3278美元，低 于前一交易日的1.3339美元。 1美元兑换145.68日元，高于前一交易日的142.77日元；1美元兑换0.8316瑞士法郎，高于前一交易日的 0.8229瑞士法郎；1美元兑换1.3848加元，高于前一交易日的1.3785加元；1美元兑换9.7566瑞典克朗，高 于前一交易日的9.6559瑞典克朗。 （文章来源：新华财经） 这一数据公布后， ...

作者 东方金诚 研究发展部 分析师 瞿瑞 分析师 白雪 时间 2024 年 4 月 29 日 关税预期进一步放缓，金价明显回调 黄金周报（2025.4.21-2025.4.27） 核心观点 关税预期进一步放缓，避险情绪回落，叠加多头获利了结， 上周金价有所回调。上周五（4 月 25 日），沪金主力期货价格 较前周五下跌 0.48%至 787.20 元/克，黄金 T+D 现货价格下跌 0.29%至 784.93 元/克；上周五，COMEX 黄金主力期货价格较前 周四（4 月 17 日）下跌 0.33%至 3330.20 美元/盎司；伦敦金 现货价格较前周四下跌 0.24%至 3318.76 美元/盎司。具体来 看，随着金价上行至历史高位区间，市场恐高情绪引发部分资 金获利了结，进而导致金价下跌。同时，美国财长贝森特暗示 中美贸易紧张局势有望很快缓解，加之特朗普表示无意解雇美 联储主席鲍威尔，带动市场风险偏好回升，美元指数有所反弹， 对金价造成一定压制。整体上看，受市场关税预期进一步缓和、 避险情绪回落以及资金获利了结影响，上周金价明显回调。 本周（4 月 28 日当周）黄金价格或将震荡调整。近期金价冲 上历史高 ...

周二(4月29日)欧市盘中，国际黄金继续维持区间震荡，截至发稿报3324.49美元/盎司，跌幅0.58%，今 日金价开盘于3341.30美元/盎司，最高上探3348.36美元/盎司，最低触及3304.69美元/盎司。 【要闻速递】 尽管市场风险偏好短暂回升，市场仍保持高度关注美联储政策路径。市场普遍预期美联储将在6月恢复 降息周期，全年或将实施三次降息。 "在当前不确定性环境下，黄金仍是应对利率和地缘双重风险的核心配置。"OANDA分析师Craig Erlam 指出。 此外，俄罗斯单方面宣布将在5月8日实施72小时停火，但乌克兰方面并未回应，地缘局势缓和，为黄金 提供潜在支撑。 巴克莱策略师在一份报告中说，该行仍然建议投资者买入五年期美国国债，为美联储降低利率做准备。 巴克莱建议投资者在4月中旬重新建立五年期美国国债的多头头寸，而在4月2日关税公告公布后，鉴于 价格重新定价和更高的不确定性，投资者已转为中性。 【黄金技术分析】 黄金周一下跌在3268.00之上受到支持，上涨在3353.00之下遇阻，意味着欧美短线下跌后有可能保持上 涨的走势。如果黄金今天下跌在3293.00之上企稳，后市上涨的目标将会指向33 ...

智通财经4月29日电，惠誉称，美国保险公司面临更高的损失成本和贸易战带来的市场风险。 ...