Core Insights - The report from State Street Global Advisors indicates that the probability of spot gold surpassing $5,000 per ounce this year has exceeded 30% due to recent price momentum and geopolitical dynamics [1] - By 2026, gold is expected to be in a favorable position supported by factors such as rising global debt burdens, Federal Reserve policy direction, and potential volatility shocks [1] - The correlation between U.S. stocks and bonds is likely to remain positive in 2026, which could increase the allocation of gold in investment portfolios as investors seek liquidity alternatives [1] - Central bank demand for gold is anticipated to support physical demand, providing a stable anchor for the precious metals market [1]

这些不确定因素的累积效应，使得黄金的支撑背景短期内难以改变。值得注意的是，美国最高法院即将就特朗普根据《国际紧急经济权力法》实施的关税政 策做出裁决，最快在本周公布，这可能进一步影响全球贸易格局和通胀预期。在地缘风险高企的时期，黄金的历史角色就是充当"危机保险"，其价格往往与 风险事件正相关，这次多重地缘冲突的交织，无疑为金价提供了额外的上涨动能。美联储政策与通胀展望：降息预期支撑黄金长期牛市美联储的政策路径是 影响黄金价格的关键变量。尽管美联储预计在1月27-28日的会议上维持利率不变，但市场仍预期今年晚些时候将再降息两次，这提振了对黄金的需求。纽约 联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯在周一的讲话中，进一步澄清了这一前景。他指出，当前通胀受关税等因素影响有所上行，约上升0.5个百分点，主要由美国民众承 担，但潜在趋势有利，并未出现广泛物价压力。他预计通胀率将在2026年上半年达到峰值，随后逐渐放缓，并在2027年回落至2%的目标水平。 美元短期面临交错因素，包括稳定的宏观背景与地缘风险的支撑，但美联储独立性风险和关税裁决预期将推动美元走软，这间接利好黄金。综上所述，黄金 价格一度突破4600美元大关，是多重不确定性合力 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the USD/CHF exchange rate, influenced by diverging monetary policies of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and the Federal Reserve, as well as economic fundamentals and market sentiment [2][3][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Divergence - The Swiss National Bank has maintained a low inflation environment, with a 2025 inflation rate of only 0.2%, the lowest in five years, and a core inflation rate of just 0.5%, significantly below the central bank's implicit target [2]. - The SNB has cut interest rates six times since 2024, bringing the key rate to 0.0% in June 2025, and has kept rates unchanged in September and December [2]. - Market expectations suggest that the SNB may have room for further easing in 2026, with the March meeting potentially being a window for policy adjustment, which could exert downward pressure on the Swiss franc [2]. Group 2: Economic Fundamentals - The Swiss economy is characterized by low growth and low inflation, with 2025 economic growth expected to remain moderate and no significant recession risks, but insufficient recovery momentum [3]. - The traditional safe-haven appeal of the Swiss franc has been subdued due to stable global risk sentiment, reducing its demand as a safe-haven currency [3]. - The strong Swiss franc has led to a 1.6% decrease in import prices, further suppressing domestic inflation and creating a "low inflation-stable rate" cycle that limits the franc's volatility [3]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - The USD/CHF exchange rate has been oscillating within the 0.87-0.88 range, with balanced bullish and bearish forces [3]. - Some institutions believe that the resilience of Federal Reserve policies will support an upward movement in the exchange rate, targeting 0.8850, while others argue that limited easing space from the SNB and insufficient rebound momentum for the USD may restrict significant upward movement [3]. - Technical indicators show a clear short-term oscillation pattern for USD/CHF, with key support levels at 0.8740 and 0.8700, and resistance levels at 0.8780 and 0.8820 [4].

Core Insights - The current U.S. labor market is undergoing a structural adjustment, with non-farm payroll data indicating a divergence that reshapes Federal Reserve policy expectations and triggers a new round of global asset market dynamics [2] Group 1: Non-Farm Data Analysis - In September, non-farm payrolls increased by 119,000, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 51,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, indicating a rare divergence of rising employment alongside increasing unemployment [3] - The increase in labor supply, with approximately 500,000 workers re-entering the market, counteracted the positive effects of new job creation, leading to this data divergence [3] - Statistical peculiarities, such as a 75.6% response rate from surveyed companies in August and the late reporting of employment data, contributed to the inflated job numbers in September [3] Group 2: December Non-Farm Report Insights - The December non-farm report showed a seasonally adjusted increase of only 50,000 jobs, below the market expectation of 60,000, with the unemployment rate at 4.4% [4] - The total non-farm employment increase for 2025 was only 584,000, the weakest performance since 2020, significantly lower than the 2 million increase in 2024 [4] - The three-month moving average indicated a decline of 22,000 jobs, suggesting potential suppression of consumer spending [4] Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy Implications - The non-farm data has been pivotal in shaping market expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate adjustments, with a significant drop in the probability of a rate cut in January from 11.6% to 2.8% [6] - The market's cautious stance reflects a balance between economic resilience and policy uncertainty, as indicated by the high yields on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds [9] Group 4: Asset Market Reactions - The precious metals market saw gold prices rise above $4,600 per ounce, driven by soft non-farm data and geopolitical risks, while silver prices also reached historical highs [7] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 1.2%, showing a typical negative correlation with precious metal prices, while the stock market may see renewed support for growth stocks if labor market weakness persists [9] Group 5: Comprehensive Data Analysis Approach - A multi-dimensional analysis approach is emphasized, focusing on employment quality, labor participation rate dynamics, and cross-verification with other economic indicators to avoid misinterpretation of single data points [10][13] - The upcoming December CPI data is expected to play a crucial role in determining future Federal Reserve policy, with potential implications for market discussions on policy easing [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For electrolytic aluminum, although the new jobs in the US employment data were lower than expected, the unemployment rate decreased. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged this month. Geopolitical risks in Venezuela have increased the premium of resource products, and the overall sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market is high. On the supply side, new domestic and Indonesian production capacities continue to release increments, and Australia's Tomago aluminum plant may face the risk of non - renewal of power contracts in 2028. On the consumption side, the weekly aluminum processing operating rate remains low, and the State Administration of Taxation announced the cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaics. Aluminum ingot inventories increased by 54,000 tons to 714,000 tons compared to before the holiday, and aluminum rod inventories increased by 30,500 tons to 169,500 tons. Affected by the macro - environment and capital rotation effect, aluminum prices have risen rapidly. The policy issued over the weekend indicates that the cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaics after April may trigger a short - term rush in the photovoltaic industry, leading to a phased increase in sector consumption. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate favorably, with a support level of 23,500 yuan/ton. [3][8] - For cast aluminum, last week, the operating rate of aluminum alloy continued to decline to 58% due to repeated regional environmental protection controls and insufficient orders. On the consumption side, downstream buyers are clearly reluctant to buy at high prices, generally choosing to digest inventories, postpone purchases, or only maintain rigid demand, and some even plan to stop production early, resulting in light market transactions. The exchange inventory increased slightly by 334 tons to 70,000 tons. The pattern of weak supply and demand for cast aluminum continues, but cost support remains strong, so it will maintain a favorable short - term fluctuation. In the medium term, as the macro - bullish atmosphere is gradually digested and capital calms down, cast aluminum may enter a high - level consolidation stage. [3][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data - The LME 3 - month aluminum price rose from 2,997 yuan/ton on December 31, 2025, to 3,149 yuan/ton on January 9, 2026, an increase of 152 yuan/ton. The SHFE aluminum continuous - three contract price rose from 22,980 dollars/ton to 24,420 dollars/ton, an increase of 1,440 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London aluminum ratio increased from 7.7 to 7.8. The LME spot premium increased from - 27.5 dollars/ton to 8.3 dollars/ton. The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 13,925 tons to 497,825 tons, while the SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory increased by 12,407 tons to 90,912 tons. [5] - The spot average price rose from 22,370 yuan/ton to 23,860 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,490 yuan/ton. The spot premium increased from - 210 yuan/ton to - 110 yuan/ton. The South China storage spot average price rose from 22,293 yuan/ton to 23,876 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,582.7 yuan/ton. The Shanghai - Guangdong price difference decreased from 77 yuan/ton to - 16 yuan/ton, a decrease of 92.7 yuan/ton. [5] - The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased from 64.5 tons to 71.4 tons, an increase of 6.9 tons. The theoretical average cost of electrolytic aluminum decreased from 15,888.96 yuan/ton to 15,851.64 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37.3 yuan/ton, and the weekly average profit of electrolytic aluminum increased from 6,481.04 yuan/ton to 8,008.36 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,527.3 yuan/ton. [5] - The SMM spot price of cast aluminum rose from 22,450 yuan/ton to 23,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,250 yuan/ton, and the Baotai spot price of cast aluminum rose from 22,000 yuan/ton to 23,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,300 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference in Foshan increased from 2,009 yuan/ton to 2,761 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai, it increased from 3,084 yuan/ton to 3,836 yuan/ton, both with an increase of 752 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 334 tons to 69,922 tons. [5] 3.2 Market Review - The weekly average price of the electrolytic aluminum spot market was 21,968 yuan/ton, up 238 yuan/ton from last week; the weekly average price of the South China storage spot was 21,882 yuan/ton, up 254 yuan/ton from last week. [6] - Macro - economically, the seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls in the US in December 2025 increased by 50,000, lower than the market expectation of 60,000. The November data was revised down by 8,000 to an increase of 56,000, and the October data was further revised down from a decrease of 105,000 to a decrease of 173,000. The unemployment rate in December dropped to 4.4%, lower than the expected 4.5%. After the data was released, the market expected that the possibility of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January was almost zero. [6] - The US ISM manufacturing index in December 2025 decreased slightly from 48.2 to 47.9, remaining below 50 for 10 consecutive months and reaching a new low since October 2024. The ISM services PMI index in December rose 1.8 points to 54.4, the highest level since October 2024. The preliminary value of the eurozone CPI in December 2025 slowed to 2%, in line with market expectations. The core CPI slowed from 2.4% in November to 2.3%, and the closely - watched services inflation rate also dropped from 3.5% to 3.4%. [6][7] - On the consumption side of electrolytic aluminum, the operating rate of the domestic downstream aluminum processing industry increased by 0.2 percentage points to 60.1% month - on - month. The operating rates of various aluminum - processing sectors were differentiated, but overall, it presented a pattern of "alleviated supply - side disturbances and intensified demand - side suppression". High aluminum prices became the core factor suppressing downstream consumption and the recovery of the industry's operating rate. [7] - In terms of electrolytic aluminum inventory, on January 8, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots increased by 54,000 tons to 714,000 tons compared to before the holiday, and the inventory of aluminum rods increased by 30,500 tons to 169,500 tons. [7] - For cast aluminum, the SMM spot price of cast aluminum alloy on Friday was 23,700 yuan/ton, up 1,250 yuan/ton from last Friday. The spot price of Jiangxi Baotai ADC12 was 23,300 yuan/ton, up 1,300 yuan/ton from last Friday. The refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum was 2,761 yuan/ton, up 752 yuan/ton from last Friday, and the refined - scrap price difference of Shanghai machine - made primary aluminum was 2,664 yuan/ton, up 548 yuan/ton from last Friday. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises last week decreased to 58% month - on - month. The exchange warehouse receipt inventory was 70,000 tons, up 334 tons from last Friday. [7] 3.3 Market Outlook - Similar to the core viewpoints, for electrolytic aluminum, prices are expected to fluctuate favorably with a support level of 23,500 yuan/ton. For cast aluminum, it will maintain a favorable short - term fluctuation and may enter a high - level consolidation stage in the medium term. [8][9] 3.4 Industry News - Vietnam's first electrolytic aluminum project, the Dac Nong electrolytic aluminum plant project, is initially planned to be completed and put into production in early July 2026. [11] - Anhui Ruixing Metal Materials Co., Ltd. plans to build a project with an annual production capacity of 100,000 tons of recycled aluminum, and the project is currently in the environmental impact report acceptance and publicity stage. [11] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of Taxation issued an announcement on adjusting the export tax rebate policy for photovoltaic products. As of April 1, 2026, the VAT export tax rebates for photovoltaic and other products will be cancelled. [11][12] 3.5 Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including the price trends of LME 3 - month aluminum and SHFE aluminum continuous - three contracts, the Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium, Shanghai - Guangdong price difference, electrolytic aluminum cost - profit, inventory seasonal changes, and cast aluminum - related prices, refined - scrap price differences, and exchange inventories. [13][24][32]

"前阵子抢都抢不到的黄金，现在居然降价了！"2026开年，持续火热的黄金市场迎来降温，国际现货黄金在4490美元/盎司附近震荡，国内金价跟着回调， 上海黄金交易所、各大金店和银行的价格都出现松动。对想入手黄金的人来说，这波回调是抄底机会还是陷阱？国内最新金价到底多少？央行购金放缓、美 联储政策摇摆背后，普通人该怎么操作？用大白话一次性说透。 先看最核心的国内最新金价，不同渠道价格差异不小，一张表就能看明白： ? 上海黄金交易所：Au99.99报价约1005元/克，Au(T D)跌破1005元，沪金期货主力合约1007元左右，比上周高点回落了2?%； ? 品牌金店（足金999）：全国平均价1386元/克，比上个月降了50多块。深圳水贝作为黄金集散地，价格低至1245元/克，北京、上海、广州等一线城市在 1283-1290元之间，海南因税费和消费环境，价格仍坚挺在1302元； ? 银行金条：工商银行、建设银行维持在1021元/克左右，中国银行1024元/克，中国黄金工艺金条1020元/克，整体波动不大； 如果是长期投资者（打算持有3年以上），这波回调确实是个机会。世界黄金协会预测，2026年金价可能再涨15?0% ...

【导读】科技股暴涨，白银暴涨，石油暴涨 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，今晚继续关注海外市场的表现。 美股上涨 1月9日晚间，美股三大指数盘中拉升，道指涨超100点，纳指涨约0.5%，标普500指数涨约0.4%。 美国12月就业报告显示，上月非农新增就业仅5万人，低于道琼斯调查的经济学家预期的7.3万人。虽然数据略弱于预期，但也 说明美国经济仍在"慢慢往前挪"，投资者预期后续经济增速有望回升。 另外，失业率小幅降至4.4%，而经济学家此前预测为4.5%。交易员将此解读为经济改善可能会更快到来。 | 均价:43.99 最新:44.00 +2.89 +7.03% | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 44.99 | | 9.44% | | 成交明细 | | | 44.00 | | 7.08% | 10:42 | 44.01 | 2816 | | | | | 10:42 | 44.01 | 57 | | 43,05 | | 4.72% | 10:42 | 44.02 | 1084 | | 42.08 | | 2.36% | 10:42 | 44.02 ...

正是这种担忧促使美联储在过去三次会议上连续降息。该报告巩固了市场对美联储将在1月27日至28日 会议上按兵不动的预期，但疲软的招聘数据也确保了关于劳动力市场健康状况的争论远未结束。" 这种乏力的就业增长步伐凸显了2025年劳动力市场'雇佣缓慢、解雇亦缓慢'的动态特征。然而，失业率 的下降暂时缓解了对劳动力市场恶化的极度担忧。 【"新美联储通讯社"：非农报告为美联储本月按兵不动提供充足理由】"新美联储通讯社"Nick Timiraos 最新撰文："今晚12月的就业报告为美联储官员在本月的会议上维持观望态度提供了充足理由，非农就 业总人数仅增长5万人，私营部门雇佣的三个月平均值降至2.9万人，这是全年的第二低增速。 ...

格隆汇1月9日丨Principal资产管理公司的首席全球策略师西玛·沙赫表示，虽然目前很难说美国劳动力市 场已经崩溃，但目前的情况仍远未明朗。工资增长低于预期，此前几个月的数据也被下调，这使得三个 月的平均增长跌入负值区间。虽然劳动力供应趋紧或许能解释部分原因，但持续的失业情况很难让人感 到乐观。美国经济可能需要美联储提供更多的支持——但并非立即提供。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the U.S. labor market shows initial signs of stability, leading Goldman Sachs Asset Management to anticipate that the Federal Reserve will likely maintain its current policy stance [1] - The improvement in the unemployment rate is attributed to individual employees leaving early due to "delayed resignation" policies and data distortions, rather than indicating systemic weakness [1] - It is expected that the Federal Reserve will not change its policy for now, but there may be two rate cuts in the remaining time of 2026 [1]