Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance reflects its desire for clearer insights into fiscal and trade policies and economic responses before making further interest rate adjustments [3][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Cautious Approach - The Federal Reserve has maintained a cautious approach to interest rate adjustments, recognizing the complexity and uncertainty of the current economic situation [3][6]. - Changes in fiscal policy, trade tensions, and economic data fluctuations can significantly impact interest rate decisions, prompting the Fed to wait for more data before acting [3][4]. Group 2: Market's Rate Cut Expectations - Despite the Fed's cautious stance leading traders to withdraw bets on a rate cut in June, there remains a market expectation for a rate cut before the end of September, with probabilities slightly above 50% [4][5]. - This expectation reflects market concerns about the economic outlook, anticipating that a slowdown in inflation could lead the Fed to adopt a more accommodative policy [4][5]. Group 3: Inflation and Economic Uncertainty - The uncertainty surrounding inflation and economic conditions is a critical factor influencing the Fed's decision-making process [5][6]. - If inflation slows, the Fed may consider providing more support to the economy through rate cuts; conversely, if inflation remains high, the Fed might keep rates unchanged or even consider further increases [5][6]. - Economic deterioration, such as slowing growth or rising unemployment, could compel the Fed to implement rate cuts or other stimulus measures to stabilize the economy [5].

周二(5月27日)本交易日国际黄金日内维持震荡走势，今日开盘报3342.46美元/盎司，最高触及3350.03美元/盎司，最低触及3324.34美元/盎司，截止当前金价 报3325.49美元/盎司，涨幅-0.50%。黄金ETF基金（159937）盘中涨幅-0.31%，换手率1.54%，成交金额4.41亿。（数据来源：Wind） 北京首创期货指出，近期鲍威尔提出调整美联储政策框架理论上对金价有一定利空，但今年美联储对金价的影响力并不大。特朗普大而美法案通过，短期而 言，减缓了市场对经济的担忧，利空金价，但长期而言，美国杠杆率将进一步上升，长线视角利多金价。国际货币制度的松动，央行增持黄金，全球地缘局 势复杂，全球经济下行压力增加，是推动金价长期上行的主要因素。从基本面角度看，中长期变量没有发生根本性改变，从技术面角度看，黄金的中长期涨 势也没有任何改变。短期行情进入高位整理，回踩60日均线后仍是做多机会。 黄金ETF基金（159937）通过投资上海黄金交易所AU9999现货合约，实现与国内金价的高度拟合，具有低门槛、低成本和交易形式多样化等特点，支持T+0 交易。长期来看，黄金中枢随信用货币规模而稳定抬升，以及 ...

操作策略： 1.黄金建议回调3320-3325区域做多，止损在3312，目标看3355-3385，破位持有 受特朗普宣布暂停对欧盟加征高关税影响，市场避险情绪降温，现货黄金开盘后震荡下行，货币政策方面，欧洲 央行管委西姆库斯称6月仍存降息可能，美联储卡什卡利则表示9月前利率调整方向"尚不确定"。最新CME"美联 储观察"数据显示，6月维持利率不变的概率为94.4%，降息25个基点的概率为5.6%；7月累计降息25个基点的概率 升至23.9%，累计降息50个基点的概率仅为1.1%。综合来看，当前美国与多国的贸易谈判持续推进，翁富豪建议 大家重点关注谈判进展及地缘局势变化对黄金市场的影响。 从技术面分析来看，月线级别呈现四连阳走势，前三个上涨月后均出现单月回调，当前已连续四个月收涨，五月 份翁老师提醒需重点关注市场风险。周线级别显示黄金在3160区域获得有效支撑，中期看多观点维持不变，只有 跌破该支撑位才会转为下行压力。日线级别当前支撑位于3278区域，价格在此上方运行则保持上行趋势。四小时 级别关键支撑在3320-3325区间，这也是昨日低点位置，正如预期价格在此止跌回升，只要不跌破该区间就继续 关注上行走势； ...

贵金属： 金银价格步入整理。特朗普将把欧盟面临 50%关税的最后期限延长至7月9日，令担忧情绪降 温，上周五特朗普一度威胁对欧盟关税提高到50%，一度刺激黄金走高。上周美国众议院以微弱优势通 过税改法案，未来十年将增加联邦债务约3.8万亿美元，对美国债务问题的担忧发酵。5月开始公布的经 济数据将逐渐反馈关税冲击带来的影响，预计数据将呈现更将明显的滞胀态势，短期经济数据的表现影 响有限。美联储难有快速动作，但随着政策框架的修改，或为未来宽松进行铺垫。考虑市场正处于期待 关税冲突降温的阶段，而美联储短期内难有快速降息，黄金白银步入持续整理阶段。但黄金长期驱动仍 然明确提供支撑，短期内有关关税谈判扰动，美国债务问题发酵或是美联储重新QE等动作，都会提供 反弹动力，整体上呈现偏强震荡态势。 铜 ： 夜盘铜价收涨。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶炼产量。根据国家统计局数据来 看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电网带动电力投资高增长，家电产量延续增长，需关注出口变化，新 能源渗透率提升有望巩固汽车铜需求，地产数据降幅缩窄。铜价短期可能宽幅波动，关注美国关税谈判 进展，以及美元、人民币汇率、库存和基差等变化。 首席点评 ...

首席点评：集运再度回落 中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发《关于完善中国特色现代企业制度的意见》。《意见》提出，完善 企业收入分配制度，推动企业健全工资合理增长机制，深化国有企业工资分配制度改革，在符合条件的 国有企业推行工资总额预算周期制管理。推动上市公司开展中长期激励，制定稳定、长期的现金分红政 策。强化控股股东对公司的诚信义务，支持上市公司引入持股比例 5%以上的机构投资者作为积极股 东。美国总统特朗普表示，同意财政部长贝森特最近的评论，即美国不需要将纺织制造业带回境内。希 望在美国制造"大物件"，并提到芯片、计算机和人工智能。特朗普还威胁称，他正在考虑从哈佛大学撤 出30亿美元的拨款，并将其拨给全美各地的职业学校。美联储短期内难有快速降息，黄金白银步入持续 整理阶段。但黄金长期驱动仍然明确提供支撑，短期内有关关税谈判扰动，美国债务问题发酵或是美联 储重新QE等动作，都会提供反弹动力，整体上呈现偏强震荡态势。 重点品种： 贵金属、沪铜、集运 贵金属： 金银价格步入整理。特朗普将把欧盟面临 50%关税的最后期限延长至7月9日，令担忧情绪降 温，上周五特朗普一度威胁对欧盟关税提高到50%，一度刺激黄金走高。上 ...

黄金今年是不断创历史的一年，元旦节后黄金多空都达到了极致，尤其是进入到4月份之后这种走势更是陷入癫狂；过去100单日涨跌100美元的稀有行情现 在成了家常便饭，日内V型反转，倒V走势成了常态！一天波动比过去一个月还要大，15分钟图相当于之前的日线！ 止损，永远是对的，错了也对！ 死扛，永远是错的，对了也错！ 横批：止损无条件！ 如果没有交易原则，那么，一切技术等于零！ 黄金，今天日内而言，美国阵亡将士纪念日，贵金属市场提前休市，美股全天休市，所以重点在亚欧盘！今天早盘开盘回落，3365区域构成短期阻力，下方 于3330-35强弱分界区域获得支撑；因此，接下来短线先看3365--3330区间折腾，操作上无所谓多空，区间高抛低吸，上破则可跟进一波短线多单，下破跟进 一波空单！ 沪金和融通金，上周四周五建议有跟随国际黄金在3150区域抄底多单的可以获利了结，并可以轻仓先空。接下来，继续关注高空机会，毕竟黄金逐步逼近大 扫荡上边缘，多单暂定义为短线！沪金主力合约，压力785--92--800--810--815--830，支撑777-772--765--756--740--732！融通金价格略低4元上下/克。 白银， ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing extreme volatility, with significant price fluctuations becoming commonplace, driven by various macroeconomic factors such as trade wars, geopolitical tensions, central bank gold purchases, and economic recession fears [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - Gold has seen unprecedented daily price movements, with fluctuations of $100 becoming routine, indicating a highly speculative environment [1]. - The recent trading session showed a high of 3345 and a low of 3279, with a total daily range of $66, which is considered normal for recent market conditions [1][3]. Group 2: Trading Strategies - Investors are advised to adopt strict stop-loss strategies and to be flexible in their trading approach, whether going long or short, as long as there are solid reasons for their positions [1]. - Key support levels to watch include the 3280 area, with potential pullbacks to 3250-55 or even 3200 if the market declines [5][7]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The market is currently at a critical juncture, with the 3315 area acting as a resistance level and the 3280 area serving as a support level [7]. - The trading strategy should involve buying near support levels and selling at resistance, with specific attention to the 5-day and 10-day moving averages for additional support [5][7].

期货热点追踪 黄金3250美元支撑暗藏玄机！市场押注美联储9月出手，金银铜未来价格走势如何？ 相关链接 ...

美联储理事沃勒：非常有信心目前的政策方向是正确的。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The Shanghai copper futures main contract shows a volatile trend, with decreasing open interest, spot premium, and weakening basis. Globally, the supply of copper concentrates remains tight, while domestic copper mine port inventories are increasing, and domestic smelters' production is stable. The supply is slightly increasing due to sufficient domestic raw material supply and favorable copper prices. However, downstream consumption has limited room for improvement as copper prices are high, copper product processing plants have fewer new orders and lower operating rates, and buyers are cautious. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may see a slight increase in supply, a slowdown in demand, and a small accumulation of industry inventory. The options market sentiment is bearish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 77,920 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price is 9,507 dollars/ton, down 26.5 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is 250 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the open interest of the Shanghai copper main contract is 153,061 lots, down 10,259 lots. The top 20 futures positions of Shanghai copper are 8,104 lots, up 1,294 lots. The LME copper inventory is 168,825 tons, down 1,925 tons; the SHFE cathode copper inventory is 108,142 tons, up 27,437 tons; the SHFE cathode copper warrant is 31,754 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 78,085 yuan/ton, down 375 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 78,165 yuan/ton, down 340 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) price is 110 dollars/ton, unchanged; the Yangshan copper average premium is 93 dollars/ton, down 3 dollars. The CU main contract basis is 165 yuan/ton, down 195 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is 14.01 dollars/ton, up 10.85 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ores and concentrates is 292.44 million tons per month, up 53.13 million tons. The domestic copper smelter's rough smelting fee (TC) is - 43.05 dollars/kiloton, up 0.06 dollars. The copper concentrate price in Jiangxi is 68,800 yuan/metal ton, up 170 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 69,500 yuan/metal ton, up 170 yuan. The southern and northern processing fees for blister copper are 700 yuan/ton and 750 yuan/ton respectively, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined copper is 125.40 million tons, up 0.60 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 440,000 tons per month, down 30,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons per week, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 55,390 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 66,800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 540 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The monthly output of copper products is 208.10 million tons, down 4.42 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 956.22 billion yuan per month, up 520.01 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 27,729.57 billion yuan per month, up 7,825.40 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,167,000,000 pieces, down 30,199,900 pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 9.97%, down 1.20%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 23.99%, down 0.19%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 12.99%, down 0.0117%. The put - call ratio of at - the - money options is 0.85, down 0.046 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In April, the second - hand housing market in core cities maintained a certain level of activity, but "trading at lower prices" was the mainstream. The average price of second - hand residential properties in 100 cities was 13,892 yuan/square meter, with the month - on - month decline widening to 0.69% and a year - on - year decline of 7.23%. The second - hand housing prices in first - tier cities decreased by 0.36% month - on - month. Shanghai issued a special action plan to boost consumption, including measures such as promoting consumer goods replacement, supporting automobile and home appliance consumption, and increasing the supply of affordable rental housing. In the first quarter, the total sales volume of new energy vehicles globally reached 4.02 million, a year - on - year increase of 39%, accounting for 18.4% of global automobile sales. Two Fed officials emphasized patience in adjusting policies. The ECB warned of a potential "fundamental institutional change" due to Trump's tariff policies. China supported 33 least - developed African countries in using the zero - tariff policy, and the import volume from these countries reached 21.42 billion dollars from December 1 last year to March this year, a year - on - year increase of 15.2% [2].