【资讯导读】 ·美联储金融稳定调查：关税和政策不确定性升为首要风险 ·鲍威尔再次强调"独立性" ·香港金管局：香港金融体系保持稳健 ·俄罗斯央行维持基准利率在21.00%不变 ·加拿大2月零售销售环比降0.4%，预期降0.4%，前值降0.6%；核心零售销售环比升0.5%，预期降 0.4%，前值从升0.2%修正为升0.1%。 ·英国3月季调后零售销售环比升0.4%，预期降0.4%，前值从升1.0%修正为升0.7%；同比升2.6%，预期 升1.8%，前值升2.2%。 ·英国4月Gfk消费者信心指数-23，预期-22，前值-19。 【全球市场动态】 【市场资讯】 ·4月25日，美联储发布了一年一度的《金融稳定报告》。这是自特朗普重返白宫以来，美联储首次对金 融风险进行半年一次的调查。在报告的《金融稳定突出风险调查》一节中，高达73%的受访者将"全球 贸易风险"列为首要担忧，这一比例达到去年11月报告的两倍多，同时也有半数受访者对"政策不确定 性"表达担忧。在去年报告中位列榜首的"美国政府债务可持续性"只能屈居第三。 ·美联储主席鲍威尔强调，央行必须远离政治干预，以确保能够专注于保持通胀稳定和高就业率。美联 储26日 ...

美联储重磅报告发布。 4月25日，美联储发布了一年一度的《金融稳定报告》（以下简称"报告"）。这是自特朗普重返白宫以 来，美联储首次对金融风险进行半年一次的调查。报告针对与资产估值压力相关的风险发出警告，报告 指出，当前美国股票市场和住宅市场的估值仍然处于高位，各期限美国国债收益率仍处于2008年以来的 高位。 当天，美联储主席鲍威尔出席国际货币基金组织会议时再次强调了美联储的独立性，以便能够专注于保 持通胀稳定和实现高就业。 《金融稳定报告》发布 企业和家庭借贷方面，当前家庭债务占GDP比例接近20年低点，抵押贷款杠杆率远低于2000年代中期峰 值，债务偿还收入比低于疫情前。与此同时，信用卡和汽车贷款拖欠率高于疫情前，次级借款人拖欠率 上升，学生贷款还款压力可能增加。 总体而言，若利率上升，可能增加消费者和企业债务偿还压力，导致金融机构固定利率证券公允价值损 失，抑制信贷供应。此外，全球经济增长显著放缓，可能打击投资者信心，导致风险资产抛售，削弱企 业和家庭偿债能力，限制政府应对能力。美联储还表示，网络攻击可能破坏金融市场基础设施和服务提 供，通过机构间依赖放大风险，影响清算结算和数据安全。 鲍威尔再次强调 ...

美联储金融稳定报告：全球贸易战和政策不确定性是金融稳定的最大风险 美联储周五公布的最新金融稳定报告显示，全球贸易风险上升、总体政策不确定性以及美国债务的可持 续性高居美国金融体系潜在风险的榜首。这是自特朗普重返白宫以来，美联储首次对金融风险进行半年 一次的调查。73%的受访者表示，全球贸易风险是他们最担心的问题，这一比例是11月份报告的两倍 多。半数受访者认为，总体政策不确定性是最令人担忧的问题，这一比例较去年同期有所上升。调查还 发现，与近期市场动荡相关的问题受到了更多关注，27%的受访者担心美国国债市场的运转，高于去年 秋季的17%。外国对美国资产的撤资和美元的价值也在担忧名单上上升。 ...

来源 | 智堡Mikko 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 本文翻译自鲍威尔在芝加哥经济俱乐部 的演讲与问答 摘要 一、经济现状与货币政策 1 经济基本面： 2 政策挑战： 二、贸易政策与市场影响 1 关税效应： 2 金融市场反应： 三、劳动力市场与长期风险 1 当前状态： 2 潜在威胁： • 美国经济保持稳固，劳动力市场接近充分就业，失业率稳定在4%左右。 • 通胀已从2022年峰值显著回落，但仍略高于2%的目标（核心PCE为2.6%）。 • 新政府政策（贸易、移民、财政、监管）带来高度不确定性，可能加剧通胀并抑制增长。 • 关税可能导致价格水平一次性上涨，若传导至消费者预期，或引发持续性通胀风险。 • 美联储需平衡双重使命（就业与通胀），警惕政策目标冲突（如高失业率与高通胀并存）。 • 已宣布的关税幅度超预期，直接影响包括： • 通胀抬升：进口成本增加可能转嫁给消费者。 • 供应链扰动：若导致关键商品短缺（如半导体），可能延长通胀压力。 • 企业普遍反映"政策不确定性"抑制投资决策，可能拖累长期经济增长。 • 股市波动加剧（VIX指数攀升），债券市场出现避险与收益率上升的背离现象。 • 美联储强调市 ...

在论坛期间， 施南德 还接受了 中央电视台财经频道专访 。谈及当前国际经贸环境，施南德表示 挑战的确与机遇并存 ，特别是在面临挑战时，创新往往迸发活 力，创造新的模式。虽然经济增长的模式和速度各不相同，但 亚洲整体处于全球经济增长的中心 。 色 。 博鳌亚洲论坛2025年年会 上周五在海南博鳌落幕。论坛期间， 高盛亚太区（除日本外）总裁施南德(Kevin Sneader) 参与了由国际货币基金组织原副总裁朱 民所主持的 "不稳定世界中寻找货币与金融稳定" 分论坛，探讨亚洲经济体如何应对发达经济体货币政策的外溢效应、如何有效应对公共债务和私人部门债务 压力以维护金融稳定。 施南德 在分论坛上分享了他 对全球货币及财政政策的看法，分析亚洲及中国在全球经济增长及众多上下行风险因素中扮演的关键角 " 亚洲仍是全球增长的中心 ——看清这一点非常重要。 我们能清晰地看到对中国经济增长前景的乐观情绪显著增强 ，东南亚区域在全球制造业经济中也愈发 成熟。尽管世界经济逆风而行，亚洲依旧是世界经济增长的中心。" 施南德 在接受央视采访时表示。 施南德 在采访中也提及，自去年9月中国政府推出增量经济刺激政策以来，伴随持续的货币和财 ...

Group 1: Domestic News - The People's Bank of China held a financial stability meeting emphasizing risk prevention as a core theme for financial work, aiming to enhance risk monitoring and establish a robust financial stability framework [2] - The Ministry of Finance plans to invest 500 billion yuan to increase the capital of four major banks, indicating imminent issuance of special government bonds for capital replenishment [2] Group 2: Regulatory Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) released new guidelines to improve the quality and transparency of information disclosure by listed companies, responding to market demands and enhancing governance [4] - The China Securities Association introduced revised risk management norms for securities companies, focusing on the management of off-exchange derivatives and their underlying assets [5] Group 3: International News - In the U.S., the core PCE price index rose to 2.79% year-on-year, the highest since December 2024, indicating inflationary pressures that may influence monetary policy [8] - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index fell to a two-year low, with long-term inflation expectations reaching a 32-year high, reflecting consumer concerns over economic conditions [9] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The bond market showed mixed performance, with short-term bonds recovering slightly while long-term bonds weakened due to uncertainty in monetary policy [13] - The convertible bond market followed the equity market's downward trend, with most convertible bonds declining in value [20] Group 5: Overseas Bond Market - U.S. Treasury yields fell across all maturities, with the 10-year yield down 11 basis points to 4.27%, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [22] - Major European economies also saw a decline in 10-year government bond yields, reflecting a broader trend of decreasing yields in developed markets [25]

Core Viewpoint - The meeting of the People's Bank of China (PBOC) focused on financial stability work for 2025, emphasizing the need to enhance risk monitoring and management while supporting high-quality financial development and the construction of a financial powerhouse [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Stability Work - The PBOC aims to implement the decisions of the Central Committee and the State Council, summarizing the financial stability work of 2024 and analyzing the current financial situation [2]. - The overall operation of China's financial sector is stable, with financial risks being controllable and indicators of financial institutions operating within reasonable ranges [2]. Risk Management - The meeting highlighted the importance of risk prevention and control as a permanent theme in financial work, focusing on timely and effective measures to mitigate key financial risks and external shocks [3]. - There is a commitment to enhancing technology-driven risk monitoring and improving the assessment and identification mechanisms for systemic risks [3]. Policy Tools and Framework - The PBOC plans to explore and expand its macro-prudential and financial stability functions, enriching the policy toolbox for maintaining financial stability [3]. - The establishment of a responsibility mechanism for financial risk disposal that aligns incentives and constraints is emphasized, along with the need to bolster resources like the deposit insurance fund and financial stability guarantee fund [3].

Market Dynamics - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the need to prevent and resolve financial risks in key areas, supporting the stable development of capital markets[1] - From March 10 to March 14, the price of cold-rolled stainless steel sheets in Wuxi increased by 300 yuan, with four-foot sheets priced at 13,200 yuan and five-foot sheets at 13,300 yuan[1] - On March 14, the trading volume of SS2505 reached 192,000 lots, an increase of 51,894 lots, while the open interest decreased by 482 lots[1] Fundamental Analysis - The mainstream transaction price of high-nickel iron rose to 1,000 yuan per nickel, indicating a continued increase in costs for 304 stainless steel[2] - Downstream demand remains stable, with stainless steel crude steel production in February increasing month-on-month, and March production expected to continue rising[2] - The market is characterized by a supply-demand imbalance, with high inventory levels and weak demand expectations[2] Production and Inventory - In February 2025, the crude steel production from 43 stainless steel plants was 3.1453 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 9.92% but a year-on-year increase of 23.5%[18] - The total social inventory of stainless steel in major markets increased by 0.36% week-on-week, with cold-rolled stainless steel inventory rising by 0.89%[19] - As of March 14, the delivery warehouse inventory reached 197,237 tons, indicating a significant increase of 41,471 tons from the previous week[19] Price Trends - The price of cold-rolled stainless steel sheets in Wuxi increased by 100 yuan to 13,620 yuan per ton, reflecting a 0.74% rise week-on-week[15] - The market sentiment remains optimistic, with prices generally trending upwards despite some resistance from downstream buyers[12] - The overall market is experiencing a price increase due to rising costs from upstream materials and a supportive policy environment[22]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Strong Buy" with an expectation that stock performance will exceed market performance by over 20% within six months [65]. Core Insights - The government work report from the recent National People's Congress (NPC) clearly outlines economic targets and specifies a plan to issue special government bonds worth 500 billion yuan to support the capital replenishment of state-owned commercial banks, which will enhance their capital base and risk resilience while increasing support for the real economy [6][15]. - The NPC's economic theme press conference highlighted future policy guidance, indicating a more proactive fiscal policy and potential adjustments in monetary policy, including possible interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [19][20]. - The expansion of the AIC (Asset Investment Company) equity investment pilot program is expected to facilitate the diversification of financial services and support for small and medium-sized banks, enhancing their participation in the financial market [23][26]. Summary by Sections Economic Targets and Policy Guidance - The NPC's government work report sets GDP growth targets at around 5% for 2025, with a focus on maintaining financial stability and addressing risks in the financial sector [17]. - The fiscal policy will be more aggressive, with a focus on supporting state-owned banks and reducing local government debt risks [19][20]. AIC Equity Investment Pilot Expansion - The recent notification from the National Financial Supervision Administration expands the AIC equity investment pilot, allowing for broader participation from small and medium-sized banks and enhancing support for technology innovation and private enterprises [23][24]. - The pilot program aims to attract more social capital and improve operational efficiency, thereby supporting the development of a diversified financing system for technology enterprises [26]. Market Performance - The banking, securities, insurance, and fintech indices have shown positive weekly changes of +1.13%, +0.73%, +1.72%, and +5.81% respectively, indicating a favorable market environment [39]. - The average daily trading volume for stock funds reached 20.33 billion yuan, reflecting active market engagement [51].