Group 1 - The Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow model projects a second-quarter GDP growth rate of 2.2%, down from a previous estimate of 2.4% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the domestic economy, highlighting three main lines: export under trade friction, investment and consumption driven by policy stimulus, and the real endogenous power of the economy. It notes a temporary phase of "grabbing exports 2.0" due to easing US-China trade tensions, with a focus on the resilience of the economy in the second quarter [2]. Group 1: Consumption Trends - There is a divergence in the growth rates of subsidized and non-subsidized consumption, with service consumption growth gradually declining, indicating little change in endogenous consumption momentum. From January to April, retail sales grew by 4.7% year-on-year, with "trade-in" consumption contributing 1.1 percentage points to this growth [3]. - The growth rate of service consumption has decreased from 20% in 2023 to 6.2% in 2024 and 5.1% in April 2025, suggesting a plateau after a rebound [3]. - The consumption subsidy policy is expected to support retail sales growth in the second quarter, with an anticipated increase of 4.5%-5% in retail sales and a final consumption growth of 4.3% [28]. Group 2: Real Estate Market - The 924 policy in real estate has shown a diminishing effect, with sales facing adjustment pressures. From January to April, the cumulative year-on-year change in domestic commercial housing sales area was -2.8%, a significant improvement from -17.1% in 2024 [12]. - The second-hand housing market has performed better, with a year-on-year increase of 21.1% in transaction area from October 2024 to March 2025, raising the proportion of second-hand housing sales [12]. - However, by April, second-hand housing sales began to cool down, with a year-on-year decrease of 22.6% in 11 sample cities, indicating a potential downturn in the market [12]. Group 3: Investment and Economic Growth - Despite little change in endogenous economic momentum, consumption subsidies and export initiatives are expected to significantly support the economy in the second quarter, with a projected GDP growth rate of 5.2% for the quarter [28]. - Fixed asset investment growth is expected to stabilize around 4%, supported by "equipment updates" and related projects, with manufacturing and infrastructure investments showing year-on-year increases of 8.8% and 10.9%, respectively [28]. - The article anticipates a 3%-5% growth in exports in the second quarter, despite facing high base effects [30].

Group 1 - The Indonesian Finance Minister projects GDP growth for 2026 to be between 5.2% and 5.8% [1] - The expected yield on 10-year government bonds in 2026 is forecasted to be in the range of 6.6% to 7.2% [1]

关于本栏目 高频数据难懂？挖掘信息不易？【图说经济】每周一期，与您一同从高频数据库中抽丝剥茧，看 懂全球经济的新变化。如需底层数据库，欢迎联系国金宏观团队。 本期Headline 洛杉矶港口进口与预期同时回落 韩国 5 月前 10 日出口大幅下滑 中国出口仍然维持韧性 国内商品价格下行压力延续 服务业高频好转，有望带动 GDP 增速小幅企稳 美国港口进口与预期同时回落 5月4日 -5月10日，美国洛杉矶港口船舶停靠数量下滑至16艘，4月均值为21.3艘；港口集装箱 进口吞吐量环比下滑-124%，已经连续两周大幅下滑，当周同比增速下滑至32.1%，4月末同 比为56%。 此外，美国洛杉矶港执行董事塞洛卡表示洛杉矶港原本预计5月份将有80艘船只抵达，但其中 20%已被取消。截至目前，客户已经取消了6月份的13个航次。 洛杉矶港进口量下滑或主要反映中美直接贸易往来在持续快速降温。 据统计，中国货物占洛 杉矶港业务量的45%，涵盖家具、玩具及电子产品等。 | | | 03 节后第一周，中国离港船舶数量和载重量维持韧性。 5月4日-5月10日，中国20大港口离港船舶数量均值为199.9艘，上周均值为203.6艘，同 比 ...

Economic Overview - China's GDP growth rate shows a trend of "stability with improvement," with Q1 GDP reaching 31.8758 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.2% [1] - The overall price level remains stable, with the national Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.1% in Q1 [1] Changes in Banking and Finance - Deposit interest rates are decreasing, marking the end of the "easy earnings" era for savers, with the 3-year deposit rate dropping from 3.15% to 1.9% [6] - The reduction in interest rates aims to encourage consumers to invest and spend, while also lowering financing costs for businesses and homebuyers [6] - It is recommended to invest in government bonds, bond funds, and low-risk bank wealth management products as deposit rates are expected to continue declining [6] Real Estate Market Dynamics - The government plans to introduce 6 million affordable housing units over the next five years, averaging 1.2 million units per year, to meet the needs of low-income groups [8] - The pricing of affordable housing will be significantly lower than that of surrounding commercial housing, which is expected to divert demand from the commercial housing market and exert downward pressure on housing prices [8] Social Changes - Marriage registration processes will become simpler starting in 2025, potentially leading to a rebound in marriage rates as couples can register with just their ID cards and without needing to return to their household registration locations [10] - The expected increase in marriage registrations may help reverse the declining trend in marriage rates seen in recent years [10] Technological Advancements - The era of "AI democratization" has arrived, with AI technologies increasingly integrated into daily life, such as in delivery services, customer service, and manufacturing [12] - Businesses are encouraged to adapt to these changes by acquiring new skills to remain competitive in a rapidly evolving job market [12]

并没有看到美国关税对一季度GDP增速造成了特别冲击。 日本首席贸易谈判代表、经济再生大臣赤泽亮正：目标是尽可能快地与美国达成贸易协议。 敦促美国重新考虑关税的立场没有变化。 ...

Group 1 - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model projects a 2.5% growth rate for the US GDP in the second quarter, an increase from the previous estimate of 2.2% [1]

重要新闻 1. 国务院关税税则委员会：调整对原产于美国的进口商品加征关税措施 国务院关税税则委员会公布公告，自2025年5月14日12时01分起，调整《国务院关税税则委员会关于对 原产于美国的进口商品加征关税的公告》（税委会公告2025年第4号）规定的加征关税税率，由34%调 整为10%，在90天内暂停实施24%的对美加征关税税率。自2025年5月14日12时01分起，停止实施《国 务院关税税则委员会关于调整对原产于美国的进口商品加征关税措施的公告》（税委会公告2025年第5 号）和《国务院关税税则委员会关于调整对原产于美国的进口商品加征关税措施的公告》（税委会公告 2025年第6号）规定的加征关税措施。 2. 市场监管总局等五部门约谈外卖平台企业 近日，市场监管总局会同中央社会工作部、中央网信办、人力资源社会保障部、商务部，针对当前外卖 行业竞争中存在的突出问题，约谈京东、美团、饿了么等平台企业。要求相关平台企业严格遵守《中华 人民共和国电子商务法》《中华人民共和国反不正当竞争法》《中华人民共和国食品安全法》等法律法 规规定，严格落实主体责任，主动履行社会责任，加强内部管理，合法规范经营，公平有序竞争，共同 ...

Economic Overview - In the first quarter of this year, China's economy continued to show a stable recovery, with a year-on-year growth of 5.4%, surpassing last year's overall growth of 5% and the first quarter's growth of 5.3% [1] - Economic performance varied across cities, with regions like Yulin, Luoyang, Qujing, and Liuzhou experiencing negative GDP growth compared to the same period last year [1] City-Specific Analysis Yulin: Energy Cycle - Yulin's GDP has grown from over 200 billion to over 700 billion in the past decade, with a peak increase of over 100 billion in a single year [6] - The city's economy is heavily reliant on fossil energy, contributing significantly to its GDP, with 80% of Shaanxi's coal and 70% of its natural gas produced in Yulin [9] - In Q1, Yulin's actual GDP growth was 5.6%, but nominal GDP decreased by 0.42%, largely due to falling coal prices [9] Luoyang: Industrial Restructuring - Luoyang's GDP for Q1 was 135.54 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.9%, but a decrease of nearly 1.9 billion compared to the same period last year [10] - The city has faced continuous negative GDP growth for two consecutive years, attributed to declining prices in various sectors [10][11] - Luoyang's traditional industries, such as steel and chemicals, are under pressure from price declines, necessitating a shift towards high-value industries [13] Qujing: Awaiting Recovery - Qujing's GDP has declined for two consecutive years, with a reduction of 10.9 billion in Q1 [17] - The city, traditionally reliant on resource-based industries, is facing challenges as both traditional and emerging sectors experience downturns [17] - Corruption issues have also impacted local economic development, with significant investigations into local officials [17] Liuzhou: Industrial Revival - Liuzhou's GDP for Q1 was 72.003 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 4.6%, but a decrease of 1.62 billion compared to last year [19] - The city has seen a decline in several key industrial outputs, indicating a stagnation in economic growth since 2018 [20][22] - Liuzhou is attempting to transition from traditional industries to emerging sectors like new energy and materials, but the pace of change is slow [25][26]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The report is optimistic that alumina will remain in a low - level oscillation this month, and the aluminum price will fluctuate weakly this month [3][68][69] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Alumina futures stopped falling this month after three months of decline. The main contract fluctuated narrowly between 2800 - 2900 yuan/ton, and closed at 2729 yuan/ton at the end of the month, down 9.03%. The monthly structure changed from a slight Contango to a Back structure in the near - term [9] - The Shanghai Aluminum futures price dropped from 20500 yuan/ton to 18960 yuan/ton at the beginning of April and then fluctuated between 19500 - 20000 yuan/ton, closing at 19910 yuan/ton at the end of the month, down 2.71%. LME aluminum fell to 2300 US dollars/ton at the beginning of the month and then rebounded slightly, closing at 2392 US dollars/ton, down 5.75%. The Shanghai - LME aluminum ratio fluctuated between 8.27 and 8.17, with an import loss of about 1000 yuan/ton [10] 2. Macroeconomics 2.1 Overseas - The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 4.25 - 4.5% in May. The US tariff policy is in a 90 - day chaotic period of suspending the collection of "reciprocal tariffs". The US imposes a 145% tariff on Chinese goods and may impose a 245% tariff, while exempting some goods from a 125% "reciprocal tariff". The progress of Sino - US trade negotiations is slow [13] - In April, the US added 177,000 non - farm jobs, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%. The core PCE in March increased by 2.65% year - on - year. The real GDP in the first quarter of 2025 decreased by 0.3% quarter - on - quarter. The manufacturing PMI in April was 48.7%. The consumer confidence index and the enterprise capital investment intention index both hit new lows since 2020 [14] - The eurozone inflation rate dropped to 2.2% in April. The first - quarter GDP increased by 0.4% quarter - on - quarter and 1.2% year - on - year. The US tariff is expected to have a negative impact on the European economy, and the GDP growth in the second and third quarters is expected to stagnate or only increase by 0.1% [15] 2.2 Domestic - In the first quarter of 2025, China's GDP increased by 5.4% year - on - year. In March, the year - on - year growth rates of social retail sales, fixed - asset investment, and industrial added value all exceeded expectations. The real estate development investment decreased by 9.9% year - on - year, and the new - built commercial housing sales area decreased by 3% year - on - year [16][17] - In March, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 2.5% year - on - year. M2 increased by 7.0% year - on - year, and social financing stock increased by 8.4% year - on - year. The year - on - year growth rates of industrial enterprise revenue and profit both improved [17] - The Politburo meeting in April set a positive tone, and subsequent reserve requirements and interest rates were cut, releasing a signal of "moderate easing" [18] 3. Alumina Market Analysis 3.1 Bauxite - Inland mines continued to resume production in April. Due to the decline in alumina prices, inland enterprises lowered the bauxite procurement base price. By the end of April, the bauxite prices in Shanxi, Henan, Guizhou, and Guangxi all decreased compared with the previous month [23] - In the first quarter of 2025, China's bauxite imports increased by about 1.075 billion tons compared with the same period last year, with an increase of about 940 million tons from Guinea. The main import countries are Guinea (77.3%) and Australia (16.6%). The bauxite price is under pressure [24] 3.2 Alumina Supply - In March 2025, China's alumina production was 7.558 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. In April, there were batch maintenance and production cuts, and new capacities in Hebei and Guangxi were put into production. It is expected that the daily output in April will be slightly lower than that in March, and the production will be about 7.3 million tons [25] - In March 2024, China's alumina exports were 144,100 tons, and imports were 303,800 tons. The export window closed in late February, and the export volume in April is expected to decrease [26] 3.3 Alumina Inventory and Spot - By the end of April, the alumina futures exchange inventory was 271,000 tons, a decrease of 28,000 tons from the previous month, and the exchange factory inventory was 7,200 tons, a decrease of 2,400 tons from the previous month [26] - In April, the alumina spot premium initially remained around 200 yuan/ton and then fell to around 100 yuan/ton. The overall transaction was light [26] 3.4 Alumina Cost and Profit - In March 2025, the average fully - taxed cost of China's alumina industry was 3209.58 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.44% and a year - on - year increase of 14.11%. The decline in raw material prices led to a slight decrease in costs [27] 3.5 Alumina Viewpoint - The large - scale production cuts in mid - April helped the alumina price stop falling. In May, there were batch maintenance and production cuts in the south, and new production of 1.6 million tons in the north began. The alumina market is expected to oscillate at a low level this month, and attention should be paid to the fluctuations in the supply - demand balance [3][28][29] 4. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Analysis 4.1 Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - In March 2025, China's primary aluminum production was 3.7116 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.1%. In April, there were both production increases and decreases. It is estimated that the production in April was about 3.615 million tons [42] - In March 2025, the global (excluding China) alumina production was 4.821 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.66%. It is expected that the production in April will be 4.713 million tons [42] - In March 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were about 222,000 tons, and exports were about 9,000 tons. The net import is expected to remain high in April [43] 4.2 Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory - By April 30, the aluminum ingot inventory was 614,000 tons, and the aluminum rod inventory was 151,000 tons. The total social inventory decreased by 296,000 tons from the previous month [43] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 77,000 tons to 69,000 tons by the end of April [44] 4.3 Electrolytic Aluminum Spot - In April, the electrolytic aluminum spot price was basically at a premium, with a maximum premium of 60 yuan/ton and a minimum slight discount of 10 yuan/ton. The LME discount fluctuated between - 20 and - 40 US dollars/ton [45] 4.4 Electrolytic Aluminum Cost and Profit - In April, the theoretical average fully - taxed cost of China's electrolytic aluminum industry was 16,448.79 yuan/ton, a decrease of 699.4 yuan/ton from the previous month. The monthly theoretical profit was 3,467.4 yuan/ton, a decrease of 108.21 yuan/ton from the previous month [48] 5. Consumption Analysis 5.1 Aluminum Processing - In April, the aluminum processing industry still performed well, but there was obvious structural differentiation. The production and orders of building profiles, industrial profiles, and aluminum cables increased, while the production of aluminum plate, strip, and foil and aluminum alloy maintained stability. The decline in the aluminum price center of gravity partially alleviated the replenishment cost pressure, but the demand transmission lag suppressed the replenishment willingness [62] 5.2 Domestic Terminal Consumption - From January to March, the national real estate development investment decreased by 9.9% year - on - year, and the new - start, construction, and completion areas all decreased year - on - year [63] - In March, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 1.237 million, a year - on - year increase of 40.1%. From January to March, the sales volume was 3.075 million, a year - on - year increase of 47.1% [63] - In March, the completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 95.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 24.8%. In April, the aluminum cable enterprises had sufficient orders, and new orders are expected to land in late May [64] - In March 2025, the newly - added photovoltaic installed capacity was 20.24GW, a year - on - year increase of 124.39%. From January to March, the cumulative newly - added installed capacity was 59.71GW, a year - on - year increase of 30.54% [65] 5.3 Aluminum Product Exports - In March 2025, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 506,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.17% and a month - on - month increase of 24.02%. From January to March, the cumulative exports were 1.365 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.6%. The export volume is expected to decline month - on - month [66] 6. Market Outlook - Macroeconomically, the US economic outlook is uncertain, and the Fed is difficult to cut interest rates. China's monetary policy has released a signal of "moderate easing" [68] - Alumina is expected to oscillate at a low level this month, and attention should be paid to the supply - demand balance [68] - For electrolytic aluminum, the supply increases slightly, the consumption is at the end of the seasonal peak season, and the inventory starts to accumulate after the May Day holiday. The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate weakly this month [69]