本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者张萌 卢梦雪 北京报道 "终于抢到2%以上的大额存单了！" 8月20日，90后投资者小吴告诉记者，由于认为当前存款利率偏低，她已蹲守多家银行的大额存单转让 区近半个月。"这周开始，明显感觉转让的大额存单多了起来。" 小吴最终成功购入某股份银行的大额存单，原年利率为2.1%，但因转让方让利，她的实际年化收益率 超过了2.15%。 记者注意到，近期银行大额存单转让区"热闹"起来。有转让者不惜折价转让，或是将刚购入数日的大额 存单火速挂牌，引来不少小吴一样的投资者"蹲守"。 北京财富管理行业协会特约研究员杨海平向《华夏时报》记者分析称，近期大额存单转让量增加与股市 回暖有显著的关联性，他同时判断，在存款利率下行与股市赚钱效应驱动下，"存款搬家"进入股市的现 象在现阶段将会延续。 大额存单"拼手速"，资金跑步入市重现 "大额存单转让随时放出，只要有人转让上面就可以看到。" 8月21日，记者以投资者身份向平安银行咨询相关业务。目前，该行在售的大额存单均为20万元起存， 其中1年期和2年期利率为1.4%，3年期利率为1.7%。然而，在该行大额存单转让区，利率高于在售产品 的转 ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced an upward trend last week, with major indices rising and trading volume remaining high [1] - Among the 31 Shenwan first-level industries, communication, electronics, and non-bank financials performed relatively well [1] Macro Data Analysis - In July 2025, the central bank reported a decrease in new RMB loans by 50 billion, against a market expectation of a decrease of 15 billion, with a previous value of 22,400 billion [4] - The total social financing scale was 11,600 billion, below the market expectation of 14,100 billion and significantly lower than the previous value of 41,993 billion [4] - M2 year-on-year growth was 8.8%, exceeding the market expectation of 8.3% [4] - A notable increase in government bond financing by 12,440 billion year-on-year, indicating a strong driving force [4] - A significant decline in household deposits by 11,100 billion year-on-year, suggesting a trend of "deposit migration" [4] Economic Indicators - The industrial added value for July increased by 5.7% year-on-year, but decreased by 1.1 percentage points month-on-month [5] - Retail sales for July reached 3.9 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, but also a month-on-month decline of 1.1 percentage points [5] - Fixed asset investment from January to July grew by 1.6% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [5] - Manufacturing investment saw a cumulative year-on-year decline of 6.2%, marking four consecutive months of slowdown [6] Market Strategy Outlook - The market showed strong fluctuations last week, with liquidity remaining ample and a bullish sentiment prevailing [7] - The current two-margin balance as a percentage of total A-share market capitalization is 2.08%, significantly lower than the 5% seen in 2015 [7] - Despite concerns over potential economic downturns in Q3, the supportive monetary policy and low-interest environment continue to foster liquidity [7] Long-term Perspectives - The long-term dynamics of the US-China relationship have been established, with international capital markets questioning the US government's governance capabilities [8] - Opportunities may arise in domestic demand, technology, and overseas expansion, particularly for undervalued stocks [8] Industry Insights - Defensive dividend sectors are recommended for allocation, while a "barbell strategy" remains effective in the current market environment [9] - The banking sector is showing signs of stabilization, with expectations of increased insurance capital inflow supporting dividend sectors [9] - In the offensive sector, technology remains a focus, especially with potential trading opportunities arising from domestic policy stability [9]

Core Viewpoint - The current market sentiment reflects a "slow bull" trend, with expectations for the A-share market to continue its upward trajectory for at least another one to two years, despite retail investors' skepticism and anxiety about market peaks [3][6][7]. Market Sentiment - Retail investors are experiencing anxiety and hesitation due to past bear market memories, leading to erratic trading behaviors [5][7]. - There is a significant divide in opinions among retail investors regarding the market's future, with discussions centered around whether the 4000-point mark represents a new beginning or an impending end to the bull market [7][9]. Historical Analysis - Historical data indicates that bull markets often begin amid skepticism and end in excitement, with the "five-year cycle theory" suggesting that significant market lows occur in years ending in 4 and 9 [6][10]. - The analysis of past bull markets shows that the A-share index is expected to maintain an upward trend until at least 2027, based on historical patterns [6][10]. Market Drivers - The current bull market is driven by institutional reforms, optimized capital structures, and economic transitions, differing from previous bull markets that relied heavily on rapid economic growth and corporate profit improvements [10][11]. - The shift in corporate behavior towards dividend distribution rather than reinvestment is seen as a key factor in supporting long-term market value [10][11]. Capital Flow Dynamics - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" is emerging, where residents are expected to shift their savings from low-yielding assets to equities, potentially enhancing market liquidity and supporting a sustained upward trend [11][12]. - Analysts suggest that the current environment presents a significant opportunity for equity markets to attract capital as traditional investment avenues like real estate become less favorable [12].

有人认为4000点是牛市的起点，也有人认为，4000点也可能是牛市的终点。 "前段时间，雅江水电站概念股暴涨，在座各位赚到钱了吗？" 在近日的一场投教活动上，主讲嘉宾向台下听众提出这个问题时，台下一片静谧，竟无一人举手。 "牛市里赚不到钱，甚至亏钱。"这种疤痕效应正笼罩在散户的头顶。这段时间，上证指数站上3700点且为突破3800点而蓄力时，"慢牛"行情已成为机构的 共识，各家券商均认为，这波行情起码还要再延续个一两年。 然而，散户的期待值却明显低了很多，在社交平台上，"这轮牛市什么时候结束"成为当下讨论的焦点，有人认为4000点是牛市的起点，也有人认为，4000 点也可能是牛市的终点。 在质疑声中开始，在兴奋中结束 "这段时间，很多投资者非常焦虑，由于过去几年熊市糟糕的记忆，市场涨一点就跑，跑了之后发现市场继续走强，又要追回来，然后再跑，反复操 作。"招商证券首席策略分析师张夏说，要想走出这种焦虑，一个最直接的解决方案就是，知道市场的顶部在哪里。 然而，很难有人能够精准预测牛市的顶部。一场牛市，往往在人们的质疑声中开始，在兴奋中结束。历史数据就成为了预测本轮牛市的一个重要的参考 项。 张夏以万得全A指数作为 ...

有人认为4000点是牛市的起点，也有人认为，4000点也可能是牛市的终点。 "前段时间，雅江水电站概念股暴涨，在座各位赚到钱了吗？" 在近日的一场投教活动上，主讲嘉宾向台下听众提出这个问题时，台下一片静谧，竟无一人举手。 "牛市里赚不到钱，甚至亏钱。"这种疤痕效应正笼罩在散户的头顶。这段时间，上证指数站上3700点且 为突破3800点而蓄力时，"慢牛"行情已成为机构的共识，各家券商均认为，这波行情起码还要再延续个 一两年。 然而，散户的期待值却明显低了很多，在社交平台上，"这轮牛市什么时候结束"成为当下讨论的焦点， 有人认为4000点是牛市的起点，也有人认为，4000点也可能是牛市的终点。 在质疑声中开始，在兴奋中结束 "这段时间，很多投资者非常焦虑，由于过去几年熊市糟糕的记忆，市场涨一点就跑，跑了之后发现市 场继续走强，又要追回来，然后再跑，反复操作。"招商证券首席策略分析师张夏说，要想走出这种焦 虑，一个最直接的解决方案就是，知道市场的顶部在哪里。 然而，很难有人能够精准预测牛市的顶部。一场牛市，往往在人们的质疑声中开始，在兴奋中结束。历 史数据就成为了预测本轮牛市的一个重要的参考项。 同时，一部分此前作 ...

Group 1: Economic Performance - China's economy achieved a growth rate of 5.3% in the first half of the year, despite challenges from global trade uncertainties and the transition of economic drivers [1] - In July, the total import and export value reached 39,102 billion yuan, with exports growing by 8.0% and imports by 4.8% [5] - The first seven months of 2023 saw a total import and export value of 256,969 billion yuan, with exports increasing by 7.3% [5] Group 2: Financial Data and Trends - In July, the social financing scale increased by 1.16 trillion yuan, with government bond financing being the main contributor [3] - The M2 growth rate reached 8.8% in July, while M1 rebounded to 5.6%, indicating a shift in residents' risk preferences [4] - The July financial data showed a notable divergence, with government bond financing supporting the rise in social financing scale [4] Group 3: Consumption and Investment - In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 38,780 billion yuan, growing by 3.7%, marking a decline in growth rate for two consecutive months [6] - Manufacturing investment growth slowed to 6.2% year-on-year for the first seven months, with a decline of 0.3% in July [7] - Real estate investment decreased by 12% year-on-year in the first seven months, indicating ongoing adjustments in supply and demand [7] Group 4: Policy Outlook - The central political bureau emphasized the need for stable and flexible macroeconomic policies to support employment, businesses, and market expectations [8] - The central bank's monetary policy report highlighted the importance of structural monetary policy tools to support key sectors and enhance consumption [9] - The focus on "precise drip irrigation" in monetary policy aims to optimize credit structures and support the real economy effectively [9]

Group 1: Economic Overview - China's economy achieved a growth rate of 5.3% in the first half of the year, despite challenges from global trade uncertainties and the transition of economic drivers [1] - The July economic data showed strong export performance, while some fluctuations were observed in consumption and investment [1][5] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose in July, indicating a positive market sentiment and the beginning of a profitability effect in the stock market [1] Group 2: Social Financing and Credit - In July, the social financing scale increased by 1.16 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 389.3 billion yuan, although loans decreased significantly [2] - The decline in loans indicates a weak overall demand in the macro economy, attributed to ongoing adjustments in the real estate sector and a reduction in production across various industries [2][6] - The M2 growth rate reached 8.8% in July, while M1 rebounded to 5.6%, reflecting a shift in residents' risk preferences and a movement of funds towards the stock market [3] Group 3: External Trade - In July, the total import and export value reached 39,102 billion yuan, with exports growing by 8.0% year-on-year, driven by proactive measures from foreign trade enterprises in anticipation of potential U.S. tariff changes [4] - Despite strong export growth, external demand remains uncertain due to fluctuating U.S. government tariff policies [4] Group 4: Domestic Consumption and Investment - July retail sales totaled 38,780 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, with notable fluctuations in consumption patterns [5] - Manufacturing investment growth slowed to 6.2% year-on-year in the first seven months, with a significant decline in July [6] - Real estate investment continued to decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 12% in the first seven months, indicating ongoing adjustments in supply and demand [6] Group 5: Policy Outlook - The central government emphasized the need for stable and flexible macroeconomic policies to support employment, businesses, and market expectations [7] - Structural monetary policy tools are expected to play a crucial role in supporting the economy, particularly in targeted areas such as technology innovation and consumption [8] - The focus on "precise drip irrigation" in monetary policy aims to optimize the credit structure and enhance the effectiveness of financial support to the real economy [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant increase in non-bank deposits and the shift of funds from fixed-income products to equity markets, driven by the rising stock market and the phenomenon of "deposit migration" [1][3][5]. Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In the first seven months of the year, RMB deposits increased by 18.44 trillion yuan, with household deposits rising by 9.66 trillion yuan and non-bank financial institution deposits increasing by 4.69 trillion yuan [3]. - In July alone, RMB deposits increased by 500 billion yuan, with household deposits decreasing by 1.11 trillion yuan and non-bank deposits increasing by 2.14 trillion yuan [3]. - The year-on-year comparison shows that in July, household deposits decreased by 7.8 billion yuan while non-bank deposits increased by 1.39 trillion yuan [3]. Group 2: Factors Driving Deposit Migration - The migration of deposits is attributed to several factors, including the end of the mid-year bank assessment, a significant return of household deposits to wealth management products, and the recent rise in the stock market [3][4]. - The trend of deposit activation is evident, with M1 growth rising to 5.6% in July, up from 2.3% in May, indicating a shift away from fixed-term deposits [4]. - The increase in non-bank deposits is also linked to the rapid growth of margin accounts at brokerage firms, suggesting that funds are being prepared for entry into the stock market [4]. Group 3: Market Activity and Fund Adjustments - The A-share market has seen a surge in trading activity, with daily trading volumes exceeding 2 trillion yuan since August, indicating a more active capital market [4]. - A total of 54 funds or asset management products have adjusted their net asset value precision due to large redemptions, reflecting the impact of the shift from fixed-income to equity markets [6][8]. - The recent trend shows that over 70% of newly established funds are equity-based, with many funds ending their fundraising early to quickly enter the market [9].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a significant increase in trading volume and a shift of deposits from traditional savings to non-bank financial products, indicating a trend of "deposit migration" driven by rising stock market performance and changing investor preferences [1][2][3]. Group 1: Deposit Migration - In July, RMB deposits increased by 500 billion yuan, with household deposits decreasing by 1.1 trillion yuan and non-bank deposits increasing by 2.14 trillion yuan, highlighting a significant shift in deposit behavior [2][3]. - The increase in non-bank deposits is attributed to a growing interest in equity markets, as investors move funds from fixed-income products to stocks and other financial instruments [3][4]. - Historical patterns show that deposit migration often occurs during periods of low interest rates and rising stock markets, with previous instances noted in 2007, 2009, 2014-2015, and 2021-2024 [4]. Group 2: Market Activity - The A-share market has seen daily trading volumes exceed 2 trillion yuan since August, indicating heightened market activity and investor engagement [4][8]. - The number of new accounts opened on the Shanghai Stock Exchange increased by 26% compared to May, although it remains below the peak levels of October last year [4]. - The recent surge in equity fund launches, with over 70% being equity funds, reflects strong investor confidence and a robust market outlook [8]. Group 3: Fund Redemption and Adjustments - A significant number of funds have adjusted their net asset value precision due to large-scale redemptions, with 54 funds reported to have made such adjustments since July [5][7]. - The redemption wave in fixed-income products is driven by a shift in investor preference towards equities, as well as high concentration of institutional investors in certain bond funds, leading to liquidity management issues [7]. - Fund managers are responding to redemption pressures by increasing the precision of net asset values to mitigate the impact on investors [6][7].

Macro and Strategy - The report analyzes the current bull market in the ChiNext index, noting that it has risen by 21.69% year-to-date as of August 18, 2025, with comparisons to previous bull markets in 2015, 2013, and 2020, which had significantly higher gains [8][3] - The report highlights the differences between the bull markets of 2013-2015, characterized by broad-based gains, and the more structural gains seen from 2018-2021, where a lower percentage of stocks saw significant increases [8] Light Industry Manufacturing - The light industry manufacturing weekly report indicates that the price of boxboard and corrugated paper continues to rise, with July furniture retail sales in the U.S. increasing by 5.1% year-on-year [3][10] - Domestic prices for hardwood pulp have risen slightly, while cultural paper and white cardboard prices remain under pressure due to supply and demand dynamics [9][10] - The report notes that China's furniture exports increased by 3.0% year-on-year in July, with expectations for recovery in the export chain due to recent tariff extensions and upcoming U.S. interest rate cuts [10][11] Automotive Industry - The automotive industry report indicates that vehicle production and sales in July 2025 were 2.591 million and 2.593 million units, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 13.3% and 14.7% [13] - The report highlights a strong pre-sale for the new Tank 500 model, indicating robust consumer interest [13] - The report suggests a focus on the performance of the automotive sector's mid-year results, with a notable increase in wholesale vehicle sales in early August [14] Copper Industry - The report on Tongling Nonferrous Metals indicates a 34% year-on-year decline in net profit for the first half of 2025, despite a revenue increase of 6.4% to 76.1 billion yuan [21][22] - The company has become the largest copper smelting company globally, with a production capacity of 2.2 million tons following the commissioning of a new copper smelting project [22] - The report anticipates a significant increase in copper production capacity with the upcoming commissioning of the Mirador copper mine's second phase [23] Gold Industry - The report on Shanjin International shows a 42.14% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, with net profit rising by 48.43% [24] - The report notes that the company is on track to meet its annual gold production target of at least 8 tons, despite a slight decline in production in the first half [24][25] - The report highlights the potential for future growth through acquisitions and new projects, particularly in Namibia and other regions [25] Electronic and Battery Materials - The report on Shengquan Group indicates a 51.19% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by strong performance in advanced electronic materials and battery materials [31][32] - The company has expanded its market share in synthetic resin and advanced materials, with significant growth in sales volume [32][33] - The report emphasizes the company's ongoing development of new products and applications in the biomass sector, with new projects expected to launch in the near future [34] Medical Aesthetics - The report on Aimeike shows a 21.59% year-on-year decline in revenue for the first half of 2025, with net profit down by 29.57% [35][36] - The company is facing increased competition in the medical aesthetics market, but it is expanding its product line through acquisitions and new product development [36][37] - The report suggests that while short-term challenges exist, the long-term growth potential remains strong due to increasing consumer demand for medical aesthetics [37] Beverage Industry - The report on Yanghe Distillery indicates a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with a focus on maintaining pricing power and controlling production volume [38]