2025年10月30日，商务部新闻发言人就中美吉隆坡经贸磋商联合安排答记者问介绍了中美经贸团队通过吉隆坡磋商达成的成果共识 [1]。主要包括关税、出口管制、航运附加费等内容，我们认为，中美吉隆坡磋商的成果共识有助于稳定经贸关系，改善我国外循环， 也会降低市场风险溢价。中金公司总量（宏观、策略、外汇）以及行业（交运、大宗商品、科技、有色、互联网、纺服、家电）为您联 合解读。 2025.10.30 | 中金公司研究部 02 中金研究 CICC Research 宏观走势和投资机会——简评"十五五"规划建议 中金点睛"本周精选"栏目将带您回顾本周深受读者欢迎的研究报告。 01 中金研究 CICC Research 联合解读中美经贸磋商成果 >>点击图片查看全文<< >>点击图片查看全文<< 10月28日，《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》及说明发布[2]，对"十五五"的地位、方针、目标、任 务等问题做了系统阐述。"十五五"具有承前启后的重要地位，达到2035年远景目标需要增长保持在合理区间。在经济新旧动能转换、地 缘冲突易发多发等背景下，未来五年供给侧创新要求更高，百尺竿头更进一步，更注重 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is focusing on "stabilizing scale and optimizing structure" to address challenges such as "deposit migration" and narrowing interest margins, while also seizing opportunities in the capital market to boost income from wealth management and custody services [1][2]. Deposit Management - As of the end of September, the total deposit scale of the company reached 5.83 trillion yuan, an increase of 302.4 billion yuan since the beginning of the year [2]. - The interest rate on deposits for the first three quarters was 1.71%, down 5 basis points from the first half of the year [2]. - The company plans to stabilize deposit scale by controlling the growth of high-cost deposits and enhancing customer engagement to increase low-cost transaction deposits [2]. Interest Income and Net Interest Margin - The net interest margin for the first three quarters was 1.72%, a decrease of 10 basis points compared to the same period in 2024 [3]. - The interest income for the first three quarters was 1,109.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 0.56%, with the decline rate narrowing by 0.96 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [3]. Non-Interest Income Growth - The company achieved net fee and commission income of 200.81 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 3.79% [4]. - Wealth management sales revenue reached 4.2 billion yuan, growing by 7.7% year-on-year, driven by a recovery in the capital market [4]. - Credit card income saw a reduced decline, with a total of 6.7 billion yuan in intermediary income, benefiting from integrated customer acquisition strategies [4]. Risk Management - As of the end of September, the non-performing loan balance was 645.60 billion yuan, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.08%, reflecting a slight increase from the end of the previous year [7]. - The company reported a significant reduction in new non-performing assets in key areas such as real estate and credit cards, indicating improved risk management [8]. - The company expects a decrease in new non-performing loans for the year, maintaining a stable and controllable asset quality [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant investment opportunities in China as highlighted by the "14th Five-Year Plan," emphasizing the strategic focus on technology, consumption, green initiatives, and security as key investment themes for global capital [3][14]. Group 1: Investment Opportunities - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is seen as a guiding framework for China's development over the next five years, attracting global capital interest [14]. - Experts agree that the shift from "going out" to becoming "global enterprises" represents a major investment opportunity, with Chinese companies achieving world-leading capabilities in industrial and technological sectors [14]. - The demand for risk asset allocation has notably increased, as evidenced by the rapid growth of multi-asset allocation strategies [9]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The relationship between Hong Kong and A-share markets is characterized by a complementary and mutually beneficial development pattern, with Hong Kong's ECM financing reaching $76 billion since 2025, making it the largest globally [12]. - The current bull market is transitioning from being liquidity-driven to being supported by institutional reforms and fundamental improvements [12]. - The "capital bridge" strategy is emphasized, showcasing the role of foreign institutions in facilitating cross-border investments and enhancing market connectivity [9][10]. Group 3: Strategic Insights - The decline of "American exceptionalism" is prompting global capital to focus on China, with concerns about U.S. fiscal deficits and regulatory uncertainties [6]. - The strategic partnership between foreign and Chinese financial institutions is crucial for promoting the development of capital markets and enhancing financial infrastructure connectivity [10]. - A clear and sustainable planning approach is highlighted as a unique advantage for both enterprises and governments, reinforcing the attractiveness of the Chinese market [15]. Group 4: Recommendations for Investors - Experts recommend a long-term investment philosophy to navigate market volatility, advocating for diversified strategies to mitigate risks [16]. - The low percentage of stock allocation among Chinese households (11%) indicates significant potential for growth in equity investments [16]. - The emphasis on consumer spending and the creation of new consumption scenarios is seen as a key driver for economic growth under the "14th Five-Year Plan" [15].

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant impact of the recent interest rate cuts by major banks, leading to a substantial outflow of deposits and a surge in bank wealth management products [1] - The "fixed income plus" (固收+) products have emerged as a preferred investment solution in a low-interest-rate environment, combining stable returns with growth potential [3][4] Group 1: Industry Trends - In May, the five major banks simultaneously lowered deposit rates, resulting in a net decrease of 1.1 trillion yuan in household deposits within two months [1] - Bank wealth management scale increased by approximately 2 trillion yuan month-on-month, reaching 32.67 trillion yuan, significantly exceeding historical averages [1] - Zhongyin Wealth Management has shown remarkable performance, with a net increase of over 170 billion yuan in a single month, positioning itself among the top wealth management subsidiaries [1] Group 2: Product Development - "Fixed income plus" products are designed to provide stable returns through a combination of fixed income assets and a portion allocated to higher-risk assets like stocks and commodities [3] - Zhongyin Wealth Management's "Stable Wealth Fixed Income Enhancement" series allocates over 80% to fixed income assets while cautiously investing 20% in equities and other assets to enhance overall returns [3] - The company has developed a diverse product matrix, including passive stock index tracking strategies, pension finance products, and global allocation strategy products to meet various investor needs [4] Group 3: Investment Guidance - Investors are advised to focus on three core dimensions when selecting "fixed income plus" products: asset allocation ratio, historical performance of strategies, and the capabilities of the management team [5] - The asset allocation ratio between fixed income and enhanced assets directly influences the risk-return profile of the product [5] - The future outlook for the bond market is positive, but volatility in equity assets remains, suggesting that a "long-term hold" strategy may be a prudent choice [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q3 2025, the "deposit shift" boosted the scale of bank wealth management to grow beyond expectations. The market is dominated by fixed - income wealth management products, but hybrid products showed significant growth momentum. The scale of "fixed - income +" wealth management products also increased [1][12][18]. - In Q3 2025, cash and bank deposits were increased on the asset side, and the proportion of bonds decreased. The leverage ratio of wealth management products dropped to a recent low [24][25]. - In the future, the scale of bank wealth management is expected to continue growing due to the "comparison effect" caused by the decline in deposit interest rates. The wealth management industry needs to build a more refined and systematic asset allocation and risk management system [2][27][30]. - In the short term, credit bonds may fluctuate under the influence of factors such as Sino - US trade negotiations, the new public fund fee policy, and the stock - bond seesaw. The short - to - medium - term credit bonds still have allocation value, and long - term and ultra - long - term bonds may have room for spread compression [3][39]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025 Q3 Bank Wealth Management Market Observation 3.1.1 Liability Side - As of the end of Q3 2025, the total market wealth management product scale was 32.13 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9.42%, and a single - quarter increase of 1.46 trillion yuan in Q3, higher than the same period in history [12]. - The year - on - year growth of wealth management scale deviated from the weekly high - frequency data of Puyi Standard. The large growth in wealth management scale in Q3 with a general performance in the bond market was due to the mismatch between wealth management asset allocation and the bond market structure. Wealth management mainly held short - term credit bonds [15]. - Fixed - income wealth management products dominated the market, while hybrid products showed significant growth in Q3. The scale of "fixed - income +" wealth management products reached 17.83 trillion yuan, accounting for 57.8% of the total wealth management scale [18]. - The proportion of wealth management products of wealth management companies increased quarter by quarter, exceeding 90% at the end of Q3 [20]. 3.1.2 Asset Side - As of the end of Q3 2025, the proportion of cash and bank deposits rose to 27.5%, and the proportion of bonds, the largest allocated asset, decreased to 40.4%, a 1.4 - percentage - point decrease from the end of Q2 [24]. - The leverage ratio of wealth management products dropped to 106.65%, a year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter decrease of 0.84 and 0.8 percentage points respectively [25]. 3.1.3 Summary and Outlook - In Q3 2025, the bank wealth management market performed well, with a strong year - on - year scale growth. Fixed - income products contributed the largest scale increment, and the layout of equity - related products increased [26]. - In the future, the scale of bank wealth management is expected to grow, and the wealth management industry needs to build a more refined and systematic asset allocation and risk management system [27][30]. 3.2 Credit Bond Yield Overview - From October 20 - 24, 2025, credit bond yields mostly declined. Non - financial credit bonds performed better than financial bonds, and long - term non - financial credit bonds performed better than short - to - medium - term ones [4][31]. - In terms of different varieties, the yields of urban investment bonds all declined, with long - term bonds performing better. The yields of most industrial bonds declined, and the overall performance was weaker than that of urban investment bonds. The yields of most financial bonds increased [31][32]. 3.3 Primary Market 3.3.1 Issuance Volume - From October 20 - 24, 2025, the credit bond issuance scale increased both year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter, and the net financing scale increased quarter - on - quarter and decreased year - on - year. The net financing scale of urban investment bonds and financial bonds increased quarter - on - quarter, while that of industrial bonds decreased [43]. 3.3.2 Issuance Cost - The average credit bond issuance interest rate decreased quarter - on - quarter. The average issuance interest rates of industrial bonds and financial bonds decreased by 0.8bp and 10bp respectively, while that of urban investment bonds increased by 1.3bp [50]. 3.3.3 Issuance Term - The average credit bond issuance term increased quarter - on - quarter. The average issuance terms of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds increased by 0.19 years, 0.04 years, and 0.04 years respectively [51]. 3.3.4 Cancellation of Issuance - From October 20 - 24, 2025, the number and scale of cancelled credit bond issuances increased quarter - on - quarter [52]. 3.4 Secondary Market 3.4.1 Trading Volume - Except for the decline in the trading volume of bank perpetual bonds and insurance sub - bonds, the trading volume of other credit bond varieties rebounded. The trading volume of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds increased by more than 100 billion yuan [59]. 3.4.2 Trading Liquidity - The turnover rates of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds all decreased. For urban investment bonds, the turnover rate of bonds with a term of less than 1 year decreased the most; for industrial bonds, the turnover rates of bonds with terms of less than 1 year, 1 - 3 years, and more than 10 years decreased; for financial bonds, the turnover rates of bonds with terms of 3 - 5 years and 5 - 7 years decreased, while others increased [61]. 3.4.3 Spread Tracking - Except for a slight 1bp widening of the 10 - year AAA - rated urban investment bonds, the spreads of other urban investment bonds narrowed. The 7 - year bonds had the largest narrowing amplitude, up to 10bp [68]. - Except for the widening of the spread of AAA - rated automobile industry in industrial bonds, the spreads of other industries narrowed. The average narrowing amplitude of AAA - rated industrial bonds was slightly smaller than that of AA - rated ones [73]. - The spreads of bank secondary capital bonds and perpetual bonds mostly narrowed, and the spreads of securities firm sub - bonds and insurance sub - bonds also mostly narrowed [74][75]. 3.5 Weekly Hot Bonds Overview - The top 20 urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and financial bonds in terms of liquidity scores were selected for investors' reference [78]. 3.6 Credit Rating Adjustment Review - According to domestic rating agencies, there were no bond rating adjustments last week [83].

Core Insights - The banking wealth management market has reached a historical high, with the total scale of existing wealth management products exceeding 32 trillion yuan for the first time as of September 2025 [1][2] - The growth in the wealth management market is attributed to the establishment of wealth management subsidiaries by banks and the shift of small and medium-sized banks towards agency sales due to regulatory requirements [1][6] Market Growth - As of the end of Q3 2025, the total scale of wealth management products reached 32.13 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.18 trillion yuan since the beginning of the year and a net increase of 1.46 trillion yuan since the end of Q2 [2] - Fourteen wealth management companies with scales exceeding 1 trillion yuan contributed significantly to market growth, accounting for approximately 80% of the total increase in the first three quarters [2] - The number of investors holding wealth management products reached 139 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.70% [2] Product Composition - Fixed income products dominate the wealth management market, with a total scale of 31.21 trillion yuan, representing 97.14% of all wealth management products [3] - The mixed and equity wealth management products, which include a certain proportion of stocks and public funds, account for less than 3% of the total product scale [3] - The performance of the A-share market has positively impacted the growth of equity-related wealth management products, with mixed products increasing by nearly 1 trillion yuan since the beginning of the year [3] Asset Allocation - The total assets of investors in wealth management products reached 34.33 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.53% [4] - The proportion of equity assets in the total asset allocation is 2.1%, while public funds account for 3.9%, with the latter increasing by 1 percentage point since the beginning of the year [4] Regulatory Environment - As of September 2025, 32 wealth management companies have been approved to operate, indicating a potential expansion in the market after years of no new licenses being issued [6] - Some small and medium-sized banks are seeking to establish their own wealth management companies despite challenges such as talent shortages and limited market scale [6][7] - The number of banks with existing self-operated products has decreased to 181, reflecting a trend towards agency sales among smaller banks [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the narrative of "deposit migration" in China, where residents are shifting funds from low-return deposits to higher-return investments like stocks, potentially creating a positive feedback loop that could stimulate consumption and domestic demand [2][4]. Group 1: Deposit Migration and Wealth Effect - In July and August, there was a notable decrease of 1.3 trillion yuan in residents' demand deposits, while non-bank deposits increased by 3.3 trillion yuan, indicating a possible flow of funds into capital markets [4]. - The M1 money supply has been rising, suggesting that previously fixed-term deposits are being "activated" and could be available for market entry [4]. - Despite the activation of deposits, the speed of market entry has slowed, as evidenced by a 1 trillion yuan decrease in non-bank deposits in September [4]. Group 2: Consumption and Market Participation - The wealth effect has not yet materialized, as consumption during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival was weaker than expected, with key retail and catering enterprises reporting only a 2.7% year-on-year increase in sales [5]. - The number of new A-share accounts opened from June to September increased from 1.65 million to 2.94 million, but this is still significantly lower than the peak of 6.85 million in October of the previous year [5]. Group 3: Lessons from Japan's 1990s - The article draws parallels between the current low-interest environment in China and Japan's experience in the 1990s, where despite low returns, residents did not significantly increase their stock market participation [12][27]. - In Japan, even during three bull markets in the 1990s, the proportion of household financial assets allocated to stocks did not increase, indicating a lack of sustained market engagement [13][14]. Group 4: Factors Affecting Market Participation - The article identifies three main pressures that affected Japanese residents' willingness to invest in the stock market: declining income expectations, high precautionary savings, and rising debt burdens [27][28]. - Declining income expectations were driven by a challenging job market and stagnant wages, leading to reduced risk tolerance among residents [28][29]. - High precautionary savings were influenced by concerns over the sustainability of Japan's public pension system, prompting residents to favor low-risk assets [37][38]. - Rising debt burdens, particularly from housing loans, further constrained residents' ability and willingness to invest in stocks [44][46]. Group 5: Implications for China - The article suggests that for "deposit migration" and the wealth effect to be sustainable in China, policies should focus on improving income expectations, enhancing the pension system, and alleviating debt burdens [51][52]. - Recent government initiatives aimed at promoting quality employment and strengthening labor protections are seen as steps in the right direction [52][55]. - Continued efforts to develop a robust pension system could reduce residents' precautionary savings and encourage more investment in the stock market [53][54].

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the articles is that the low interest rate environment in China is driving residents to shift their savings from traditional bank deposits to wealth management products, leading to a significant growth in the wealth management market, which reached a record high of 32.13 trillion yuan [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Growth and Trends - The total scale of bank wealth management products reached 32.13 trillion yuan, marking a historical high, with a quarterly increase of 1.46 trillion yuan [3][4]. - The number of existing wealth management products has grown to 43,900, an increase of 10.01% year-on-year, indicating a shift in residents' investment mindset from "savings thinking" to "investment thinking" [3][4]. - Fixed income products remain the cornerstone of the wealth management market, accounting for 97.14% of the total scale, while mixed products and equity products have a much smaller share [4][6]. Group 2: Investor Behavior and Education - There is a notable trend of clients seeking to transition from deposits to wealth management, with banks actively engaging clients to recommend stable wealth management products [5][6]. - The shift in investment behavior reflects a growing demand for net value-based products, which are perceived as more attractive compared to declining deposit rates [6][7]. - Investor education remains crucial as many individuals still hold onto traditional savings mindsets, leading to potential panic during market fluctuations [9][10]. Group 3: Regulatory and Economic Context - The People's Bank of China has implemented a market-oriented deposit rate adjustment mechanism, contributing to the decline in deposit rates and encouraging the shift towards wealth management products [6][7]. - The ongoing changes in the wealth management landscape are influenced by macroeconomic conditions and regulatory policies aimed at enhancing the attractiveness of capital markets [8][10]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Recommendations - The future of wealth management in China will depend on the ability of financial institutions to innovate products that meet the dual demands for stable returns and liquidity [10]. - Financial institutions are encouraged to enhance their research capabilities and investor education to better manage client expectations and improve asset allocation strategies [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the investment banking and brokerage industry [7] Core Insights - The industry is entering a period of concentrated third-quarter report disclosures, with the market remaining at high levels, indicating that brokerage firms are likely to continue their high growth trend, presenting investment opportunities [2][4] - In the insurance sector, profit growth for the top companies in the first three quarters has been significantly revised upward compared to previous expectations, with notable investment returns alleviating short-term concerns. This supports the logic of deposit migration, increased equity allocation, and improved new policy costs, enhancing the certainty of long-term ROE improvement and accelerating valuation recovery [2][4] - The overall cost-effectiveness of investment is gradually improving, aligning with the judgment of a long-term upward turning point [2][4] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The non-bank financial index increased by 2.0% this week, with a year-to-date increase of 8.1%, although it ranks lower in relative performance against the CSI 300 index [5] - The market's trading activity has decreased, with an average daily turnover of 17,973.14 billion yuan, down 18.04% week-on-week [5] Insurance Sector - The cumulative premium income for the insurance industry in August 2025 reached 47,999 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.63%, with life insurance premiums growing by 11.43% [23][24] - The total assets of the insurance industry as of August 2025 were 40.11 trillion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.32% [28][29] Brokerage Firms - The report recommends stable profit growth and dividend rates for companies such as Jiangsu Jinzu, China Ping An, and China Pacific Insurance, highlighting their strong market positions [4] - Additional recommendations include New China Life, China Life, Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing, CITIC Securities, Dongfang Caifu, Tonghuashun, and Jiufang Zhitu Holdings based on their performance elasticity and valuation levels [4] Market Trends - The report notes a recovery in the equity market, with the CSI 300 index rising by 3.24% and the ChiNext index by 8.05% [42][47] - The financing scale for equity and bond markets showed a rebound in September, with equity financing reaching 416.34 billion yuan, up 86.6% month-on-month [54]

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the articles is that the low interest rate environment in China is driving residents to shift their savings from traditional bank deposits to wealth management products, leading to a significant growth in the wealth management market, which reached a record high of 32.13 trillion yuan by the end of Q3 2025 [1][3][7]. Market Growth - The total scale of wealth management products increased by 1.46 trillion yuan in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 9.42% [3][4]. - As of the end of Q3 2025, there were 181 banks and 32 wealth management companies offering a total of 43,900 wealth management products, marking a 10.01% increase in the number of products year-on-year [3][4]. Product Composition - Fixed income products remain the cornerstone of the wealth management market, with a total scale of 31.21 trillion yuan, accounting for 97.14% of all wealth management products [4]. - Mixed products accounted for 2.58% of the total, while equity and commodity derivatives products represented a small fraction, indicating a cautious approach from ordinary investors towards high-risk assets [4]. Investor Behavior - The shift from "savings thinking" to "investment thinking" among residents is evident, as they seek to balance capital preservation and returns amid declining deposit rates [7][10]. - The trend of "deposit migration" is ongoing, with banks adapting their product strategies to attract funds, particularly through "fixed income plus" products that combine bonds with equities to enhance returns [7][8]. Regulatory and Market Context - The People's Bank of China has implemented a market-oriented deposit rate adjustment mechanism, which has contributed to the decline in deposit rates, making wealth management products more attractive [7][8]. - Despite the overall increase in wealth management products, there are fluctuations in deposit flows, reflecting the dynamic nature of residents' asset allocation behavior [8][9]. Investor Education and Product Innovation - There is a pressing need for enhanced investor education and product innovation as the market transitions to a net value-based model, moving away from guaranteed returns [10][11]. - Financial institutions are encouraged to develop mid-to-low risk products that meet the dual demand for stable returns and liquidity, while also improving their research capabilities to better guide asset allocation [11][12].