报告说，关税政策对服装和纺织品价格的影响尤为严重。鞋类价格短期内将上涨39%，服装价格将上涨 37%。从长期来看，这两类商品价格将分别上涨19%和18%。 报告预计，受关税政策拖累，美国实际国内生产总值增速今明两年将分别下降0.5个百分点。另外，关 税政策将导致美国失业率到今年年底上升0.3个百分点。到2026年年底，失业率将上升0.7个百分点。 越来越多专家担心，美国普通民众不得不承担高关税的严重代价。 美国摩根大通资产管理全球市场战略分析师米拉·潘迪特7日说，高关税带来的成本中有大约60%的比例 将转嫁给消费者。 新华社记者宿亮 美国商务部长卢特尼克7日接受记者采访时表示，随着"对等关税"生效，预计美国每月将"入账"至少500 亿美元的关税收入。他说，此前一个月，美国已因新的关税措施获得300亿美元收入。 美国总统特朗普当天也在社交媒体发帖，称"数十亿美元的资金将开始流入美国""关税正以我们想象不 到的水平流入美国"。 然而，一些投资分析师和智库看到的美国经济图景，与美国政府的描述完全不同。 投资机构动态经济战略公司首席执行官约翰·席尔瓦表示，今年4月初，美国颁布"对等关税"以来，企业 招聘停滞，通胀压力 ...

Core Points - The article discusses the escalation of tariffs by the United States under President Trump's administration, particularly targeting India and Brazil, which have formed a united front against these tariffs [1][2][4] - The average tariff rate in the U.S. has increased significantly from 2.3% to 15.2%, marking the highest level since World War II [1] - India is facing a potential tariff rate of up to 50% due to Trump's recent announcements, which has prompted strong responses from Indian leadership [2][3] - Brazil is also experiencing a substantial increase in tariffs, with rates rising to 50% on many products, leading President Lula to seek national support for affected businesses [4][6] - Both countries are exploring closer ties with BRICS nations and other global partners to counteract U.S. economic pressure [8][13] Summary by Sections U.S. Tariff Policy - President Trump announced the implementation of "reciprocal tariffs," which have led to increased tariffs on nearly all trade partners, particularly affecting India and Brazil [1] - The U.S. tariff rate has reached its highest level in decades, with significant implications for international trade dynamics [1] India's Response - Indian Prime Minister Modi emphasized that the interests of Indian farmers are a top priority and that India will not yield to U.S. pressure [2] - The Indian government has labeled the U.S. tariff actions as "unfair" and is prepared to take necessary actions to protect its national interests [2] - There is a strong sentiment in India against U.S. actions, with calls for closer cooperation with BRICS nations and other international partners [8][11] Brazil's Position - Brazilian President Lula has firmly rejected the idea of negotiating under pressure from the U.S. and is focused on providing support to affected industries [4][6] - Lula's administration is also considering collaboration with BRICS countries to address the challenges posed by U.S. tariffs [8][13] International Relations - Both India and Brazil are looking to strengthen their strategic partnerships and trade relations with other countries, particularly within the BRICS framework [8][11] - The article highlights a potential shift in global alliances as countries respond to U.S. economic policies, with India and Brazil taking a leading role in advocating for multilateralism [8][13]

Core Viewpoint - The World Trade Organization (WTO) predicts a 0.9% growth in global merchandise trade by 2025, an improvement from the previous forecast of -0.2%, but still below the pre-tariff estimate of 2.7% [2][3]. Trade Growth Projections - The increase in the 2025 trade forecast is primarily attributed to a surge in U.S. imports in the first quarter, driven by expectations of tariff hikes [3][12]. - The WTO expects trade volume growth to decline from 2.5% to 1.8% for the next year due to the impact of higher tariffs [3][12]. - Asian economies are projected to be the main contributors to global trade growth in 2025, although their contribution will be lower than previously estimated [7]. - North America is expected to negatively impact global trade growth in 2025 and 2026, but the negative effect for this year is less severe than earlier predictions due to higher-than-expected U.S. imports [7][8]. Tariff Impact - The recent tariff adjustments are expected to exert increasing pressure on global trade, particularly from the higher tariffs that took effect on August 7 [11][13]. - The WTO notes that the overall negative impact of tariffs has worsened compared to earlier forecasts, influenced by various factors including exemptions for certain products [13]. - The U.S. imports are expected to see a significant increase of 11% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, primarily due to advance purchasing and inventory accumulation [12]. Economic Conditions - The global macroeconomic outlook has improved compared to earlier predictions, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and lower oil prices, which may benefit manufacturing economies [12][13]. - The European region's contribution to trade has shifted from a moderate positive to a slightly negative outlook for 2025 [7].

Core Viewpoint - The WTO has revised its global goods trade growth forecast for 2025 to 0.9%, an improvement from the previous prediction of -0.2%, but still below the pre-tariff increase estimate of 2.7% [1] Group 1: Trade Growth Factors - The increase in the 2025 trade forecast is primarily attributed to a surge in U.S. imports, driven by anticipatory purchasing ahead of tariff hikes [1][5] - The global macroeconomic outlook has improved, benefiting from a weaker dollar and lower oil prices, which support manufacturing growth [7] - However, the recent tariff adjustments are expected to exert a negative impact on global trade, particularly in the latter half of 2025 and into 2026 [7] Group 2: Regional Contributions - Asian economies are projected to remain the largest positive contributors to global goods trade growth in 2025, although their contribution for 2026 is expected to be lower than previously estimated [4] - North America is anticipated to have a negative impact on global trade growth in 2025 and 2026, although the negative effect for this year is less severe than earlier estimates due to higher-than-expected U.S. import levels [4] - Europe is shifting from a moderate positive contribution to a slightly negative one for trade in 2025, with exports and imports showing weaker growth than previously forecasted [4] Group 3: Tariff Impact - The WTO's previous forecast of a 0.2% contraction in trade for 2025 was based on earlier tariff measures, including the suspension of "reciprocal tariffs" by the U.S. [5] - The implementation of higher tariffs on steel and aluminum has led to a downward revision of trade growth expectations, with the latest tariffs expected to increasingly pressure trade volumes [5][6] - The positive effects of anticipatory purchasing and inventory accumulation are expected to diminish over time, leading to a decline in import demand in the latter half of 2025 [6]

Core Viewpoint - The high tariffs imposed by the U.S. government are expected to generate significant revenue, but the actual economic impact is detrimental, leading to a situation described as "picking up sesame seeds while losing watermelons" [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Impact - The average effective tariff rate in the U.S. has reached 18.6%, the highest since 1933, with a projected short-term price increase of 1.8%, costing households approximately $2,400 [2]. - The tariffs are expected to decrease the U.S. GDP growth rate by 0.5 percentage points over the next two years and increase the unemployment rate by 0.3 percentage points by the end of this year [2]. - Approximately 60% of the costs associated with high tariffs will be passed on to consumers, significantly impacting their purchasing power [3]. Group 2: Industry Reactions - Many U.S. businesses reliant on imports are being adversely affected by the tariffs, leading to increased costs and disrupted supply chains [3][4]. - The tariffs have caused a surge in the trade deficit as importers stockpiled goods before the tariffs took effect, indicating a negative trend in trade dynamics [4]. - The belief that tariffs will boost U.S. manufacturing is challenged, as they are instead causing pain for manufacturers due to increased raw material costs [3].

Group 1: Economic Overview - The U.S. GDP for Q2 2025 shows an annualized growth rate of 3.0%, exceeding Bloomberg's consensus of 2.6% and Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate of 2.9% [1] - The seasonally adjusted GDP amount for Q2 is $5.9 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of 2% and a quarter-on-quarter annualized growth of 3% [1] - The GDP growth rate is positioned as the 5th highest in the last 14 quarters, indicating a relatively strong performance [1] Group 2: GDP Composition - Personal consumption accounts for approximately 68% of GDP, private investment around 18%, government spending about 17%, and net exports at -3% [2] - Retail sales in June reached $720 billion, with a month-on-month increase of 0.6% and a cumulative total of $4.2 trillion for the first half of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.3% [2] - Core retail sales, which make up about three-quarters of total sales, amounted to $533 billion in June, with a year-on-year increase of 4.1% [2] Group 3: Trade and Investment Dynamics - The reduction in trade deficit contributed significantly to GDP growth, with Q2 trade deficit shrinking from $3,906 billion in Q1 to $1,921 billion in Q2, a decrease of 51% [4] - Q2 exports totaled $846.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6%, while imports decreased by 2% [4] - Private investment saw a significant decline, with a year-on-year rate of -15.6% in Q2, contributing negatively to GDP [6] Group 4: Labor Market Insights - July saw only 70,000 new non-farm jobs added, significantly below expectations, with previous months' figures revised downwards [5] - The unemployment rate, while low at 4.2%, is showing signs of a potential increase, indicating underlying labor market weaknesses [5] - The labor market's performance is critical as it reflects the overall economic health and consumer spending capacity [5] Group 5: Economic Challenges - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" is expected to negatively impact personal consumption, private investment, and net exports in the short term [3] - The overall economic growth appears to be uneven, with concerns about the sustainability of the current growth trajectory [4] - The real estate market is cooling, with new home sales down 4% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, indicating potential challenges in the housing sector [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the new phase of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on various trade partners, highlighting the significant increase in tariff rates and its implications for international trade and specific industries [2][3][4]. Tariff Implementation - On August 7, the Trump administration's new tariffs came into effect, raising the average tariff rate to 17.3%, the highest level since 1935 [2]. - Tariff rates vary significantly by country, with Laos and Myanmar facing a 40% tariff, while countries like the UK face a 10% tariff [5][8]. Specific Tariff Rates - The article lists specific tariff rates for various countries, including 39% for Switzerland, 35% for Serbia, and 30% for South Africa, among others [5][8]. - Brazil will see a 40% tariff on most products, with certain exceptions for specific goods [5][6]. Impact on Key Industries - The Trump administration plans to impose a 100% tariff on semiconductor imports, although details on implementation remain unclear [3][14]. - A potential 250% tariff on pharmaceuticals is also mentioned, aimed at encouraging domestic production [17][20]. Legislative Authority and Implications - The article discusses the broad authority granted to the President under the 232 investigation and IEEPA, raising questions about the limits of this power [3][19]. - Experts note that the high tariff rates are unprecedented and could significantly impact global supply chains, particularly in the semiconductor and pharmaceutical sectors [10][20]. Negotiation and Trade Relations - Some countries, like Switzerland, attempted last-minute negotiations to avoid high tariffs but were unsuccessful [7][8]. - The article mentions that Mexico has a 90-day negotiation period regarding the 35% tariff due to its participation in the USMCA [11].

Core Points - The U.S. has implemented new "reciprocal tariffs" on 69 trade partners, with rates ranging from 10% to 41%, causing widespread criticism and concern among affected countries [1][2][3] - The tariffs are seen as a continuation of the U.S. administration's aggressive trade policy, with specific countries like Brazil, Switzerland, India, and Japan facing particularly high rates [2][3][4] - The trade agreements reached with countries like South Korea and the EU are under scrutiny, with concerns about the fairness and execution of these agreements [5][6] Summary by Category Tariff Implementation - The new tariffs, effective from August 7, include a 15% rate for 40 countries, while 10 countries face rates of 19% or 20% [1] - Brazil faces a combined tariff rate of 50% due to additional tariffs imposed on its products [2] - Switzerland is subjected to a 39% tariff, the highest among European nations, raising alarms about its economic impact [2] Reactions from Affected Countries - Brazil's President Lula has stated that the country will not yield to U.S. pressure and has sought consultations through the WTO [2] - India's government has condemned the U.S. tariffs as unfair and has pledged to protect its national interests [3] - South Korea's agreement with the U.S. has faced criticism domestically for perceived excessive concessions [3] Trade Agreement Concerns - Japan's trade agreement with the U.S. is facing challenges, as the newly announced tariffs contradict prior agreements, leading to calls for correction [4] - The EU's agreement with the U.S. has been criticized for signaling weakness and excessive concessions, particularly from Germany [5] - Analysts suggest that the U.S. may continue to apply pressure on countries to reach trade agreements, but the long-term sustainability of such policies remains uncertain [6]

Market Overview - The Tokyo stock market indices continued to consolidate on July 4, with the Nikkei 225 index closing up 0.06% and the Tokyo Stock Exchange Price Index down 0.04% [1][2] - Influenced by the rise of three major US stock indices overnight, the Tokyo market opened higher, with the Nikkei index briefly surpassing 40,000 points [1] Trade Negotiations Impact - The market faced pressure due to the uncertainty surrounding the Japan-US trade negotiations, particularly with the deadline for the suspension of "reciprocal tariffs" approaching [1] Sector Performance - At the close, the Nikkei index rose by 24.98 points to 39,810.88 points, while the Tokyo Stock Exchange index fell by 1.04 points to 2,827.95 points [2] - Most of the 33 industry sectors on the Tokyo Stock Exchange saw gains, with the electric and gas industry, banking, and securities and commodity futures trading sectors leading the increases [2] - Conversely, sectors such as marine transportation, steel, and non-ferrous metals experienced declines [2]

Core Viewpoint - Fitch Ratings has adjusted the rating outlook of six Chinese state-owned banks' non-bank financial subsidiaries from "negative" to "stable" [1] Group 1: Company Ratings and Performance - The six financial subsidiaries include four leasing companies: ICBC Financial Leasing, Bank of Communications Financial Leasing, CCB Financial Leasing, and BOCA Aviation [1] - BOCA Aviation, a state-owned enterprise, focuses on aircraft leasing and has achieved a 100% aircraft utilization rate for the first time in five years, with a total of 829 aircraft and engines [1] - ICBC Financial Leasing owns over 500 aircraft, including four C919s, while Bank of Communications Financial Leasing has a fleet of 298 aircraft [1] Group 2: Industry Challenges and Risks - Aircraft leasing companies face risks from tariff changes, which can significantly impact procurement costs [3] - The recent announcement of a "reciprocal tariff" policy by the U.S. government could increase the cost of Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft from approximately $120 million to over $200 million [3] - In 2024, China is expected to import approximately $12.167 billion worth of helicopters, aircraft, and parts, with over 50% coming from the U.S. [3] Group 3: Strategic Recommendations - Aviation leasing companies should review existing contracts to assess tax cost implications and utilize tariff exclusion rules [5] - It is crucial for companies to clarify tax burden responsibilities in contracts to avoid disputes and renegotiations [5] - Companies are advised to negotiate supplementary agreements to address new tax burdens and reduce uncertainties [5]