Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 900 billion yuan MLF operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, with a net injection of 200 billion yuan in October, aligning with market expectations [1][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Liquidity Management - The PBOC's MLF operation reflects a coordinated effort between monetary and fiscal policies to support government bond issuance and meet credit demand from enterprises and households [4][5]. - The central bank's continued injection of medium-term liquidity is a response to rising market interest rates and tightening liquidity in the banking system, aiming to stabilize market expectations [4][5]. - The total amount of long-term liquidity remains unchanged despite a slight decrease in the net MLF injection to 200 billion yuan, marking the eighth net injection this year [5][6]. Group 2: Economic Outlook and Future Expectations - Analysts expect the PBOC may implement a new round of reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts in the fourth quarter to further support economic growth and stabilize employment [7][8]. - The necessity for increased monetary policy support is rising due to external uncertainties and the high base effect from last year's policies [7][8]. - The overall liquidity in the market is expected to remain stable and ample, with limited upward pressure on market interest rates towards the end of the year [7][8]. Group 3: Loan Growth and Sector Support - In the third quarter of 2025, fixed asset loans increased by 5.06 trillion yuan, with a total balance of 77.55 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7% [9][10]. - The balance of loans to small and micro enterprises reached 36.09 trillion yuan, growing by 12.2% year-on-year, indicating strong support for this sector [10]. - The PBOC's focus on supporting technology-oriented small and medium enterprises is evident, with a loan balance of 3.56 trillion yuan, growing by 22.3% year-on-year [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Amidst complex international situations and ongoing Sino-US negotiations, the domestic index trend remains relatively independent. The release of the "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes scientific and technological innovation and domestic demand expansion, leading to a significant rebound in the technology sector. In the long - term, the domestic market is driven by liquidity, with continuous inflows of incremental funds, and the stock index has upward momentum after consolidation [3]. - The US has entered a new interest - rate cut cycle, which is conducive to RMB appreciation and foreign capital inflows. Current policies to stabilize the capital market are positive, and new technologies and consumption are driving the economic outlook to stabilize and recover. After the risk - free rate drops to a low level, long - term funds and retail investors will enter a new investment cycle. It is recommended to focus on technology - growth sectors such as semiconductors and AI computing power, and also pay attention to the rotation value of low - valuation defensive sectors like finance (securities) and consumption [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Performance - This week, domestic stock indices rebounded significantly, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high for the year. The Nasdaq rose 2.32%, the S&P 500 rose 1.92%, the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 5.28%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.88%, the ChiNext Index soared 8.05%, and the STAR 50 Index rose 7.27% as of October 24, 2025. Most of the 81 Shenwan primary industry indices rose, with the communications, electronics, and power equipment sectors rising significantly, while only the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and food and beverage sectors declined [11][15]. 2. Liquidity - In September, government bonds supported social financing, the return of wealth management funds boosted M2, while M1 remained sluggish. The "gap" between M1 and M2 continued to narrow. The core support for the increase in social financing in September came from government bond issuance, while weak RMB loans were the main drag. The recovery of real - economy financing demand still needs time. In September, the new social financing increment was 3.76 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 372.2 billion yuan, and the stock of social financing balance was 402.19 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.0%. The growth rate slightly declined by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The new government bonds in September were 1.54 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 543.7 billion yuan [13][16]. - The fund rate (DR007) remained low, and 300 billion yuan of MLF was net - injected in September. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond was around 1.7%. As of the end of September, the M2 balance was 209.48 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%, and the M1 balance was 82.82 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 7.4% [16]. 3. Trading Data and Sentiment - This week, trading volume in the two markets decreased, but the heavy trading on Friday drove the index to rebound. The average daily trading volume (MA5) of the two markets remained around 2 trillion yuan, and liquidity is an important factor supporting the current index and needs continuous monitoring. The number of new accounts opened showed fluctuations from January to August, with 1.57 million in January, 2.88 million in February, 3.06 million in March, 1.92 million in April, 1.555 million in May, 1.6464 million in June, 1.9636 million in July, and 2.6503 million in August [23][25]. 4. Index Valuation - As of October 24, 2025, the absolute valuation of the index is at a low level. The latest PE of the Shanghai Composite Index is 16.94, with a quantile of 87.30, and the PE of the entire A - share market is 22.59, with a quantile of 88.43. Among the major stock indices, the valuation quantiles are in the order of CSI 1000 < CSI 500 < SSE 300 < SSE 50 [32]. 5. Index Industry Weights - As of June 30, 2025, in the SSE 50, the weights of the banking, non - banking finance, and food and beverage sectors are relatively high, at 21.34%, 15.48%, and 13.88% respectively, and the electronics industry has become the fourth - largest weighted industry. In the SSE 300, the weights are more dispersed, with the top three weighted industries being banking, non - banking finance, and electronics. In the CSI 500, the top three weighted industries are electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and non - banking finance. In the CSI 1000, the top three weighted industries are electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and computer [45][46]. 6. Other Overseas and Domestic Policy Tracking - Domestic policy tracking: In 2025, the government work report and the Two Sessions in March set the economic growth target at 3% and the CPI increase at around 2%. A moderately loose monetary policy and a more proactive fiscal policy were proposed, with a deficit ratio of about 4% and the issuance of 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra - long - term special treasury bonds. In May, the reserve requirement ratio was cut by 0.5 percentage points, the policy rate was lowered by 0.1 percentage points, and the provident fund rate was cut by 0.35 percentage points. A 500 - billion - yuan loan for service consumption and elderly care was established. In September, the achievements of the financial industry during the "14th Five - Year Plan" were summarized, and further reforms in the capital market, such as those in the STAR Market, ChiNext, and Beijing Stock Exchange, were promoted [50][51]. - Overseas policy tracking: The US is about to enter a new interest - rate cut cycle, with a 25 - BP cut in September. As of October 19, the probability of another rate cut in October by the Fed exceeded 30%, and there are still two potential rate cuts this year. China has implemented "long - arm jurisdiction" and strengthened rare - earth controls, which has led to Trump's counter - measures of imposing additional tariffs. A video call was held between China and the US on October 18 [52][53].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is injecting 900 billion MLF (Medium-term Lending Facility) to provide liquidity to banks, which is expected to stabilize financing costs for enterprises and support the A-share market [1][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Impact - The injection of 900 billion MLF is essentially a measure to alleviate liquidity constraints for banks, ensuring they do not tighten credit excessively [3]. - This policy action is aimed at maintaining stable expectations in the market, indicating that there will not be sudden disruptions in funding availability [3]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - Long-term investors should not treat this monetary policy as a short-term trading opportunity but rather as a signal to hold onto fundamentally sound stocks with reasonable valuations [3]. - The focus should be on following policy signals and core logic to maintain stable long-term positions in the market [3].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is implementing measures to maintain liquidity in the banking system, including a 900 billion yuan Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation, reflecting a proactive monetary policy stance to support economic growth and stabilize market expectations [1][2]. Group 1: MLF Operations - On October 27, the PBOC will conduct a 900 billion yuan MLF operation with a one-year term, marking the eighth consecutive month of increased MLF operations [1]. - With 700 billion yuan of MLF maturing in October, the net injection of liquidity will amount to 200 billion yuan after the MLF operation [1]. - The total net liquidity injection for October is projected to reach 600 billion yuan, maintaining a high level consistent with September [1]. Group 2: Government Bonds and Financing - The current phase involves significant government bond issuance, with an expected net financing scale of over one trillion yuan in October due to the arrangement of 500 billion yuan for local government debt [1][2]. - The PBOC's actions are seen as a coordination between monetary and fiscal policies, aimed at enhancing effective investment and addressing existing debt [1]. Group 3: Market Conditions and Interest Rates - Recent market conditions have led to an increase in medium to long-term interest rates, with liquidity tightening in the banking system [2]. - The PBOC's continued MLF operations signal a commitment to maintaining liquidity and stabilizing the bond market [2]. - The overall interest rate environment has been characterized by fluctuations above 1.8% for long-term bonds, indicating a high-level oscillation [2]. Group 4: Future Monetary Policy Outlook - Analysts anticipate that the PBOC may implement further quantitative easing measures, including potential reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and continued use of MLF and reverse repos to inject liquidity [2]. - The fourth quarter is expected to see enhanced monetary policy tools to support economic growth and stabilize the real estate market [2].

王青表示，受股市向好等因素影响，近期中长端市场利率普遍有所上行，银行体系流动性有所收紧。央行通过MLF等政策 工具加大资金投放，也有助于稳定市场预期，保持市场流动性充裕。此外，央行持续实施中期流动性净投放，也在释放数量型 货币政策工具持续加力的政策信号，显示货币政策延续支持性立场。 中信证券首席经济学家明明对《证券日报》记者表示，10月份以来，利率整体呈现高位震荡态势，长债利率在1.8%以上波 动。央行加量续做MLF，一定程度上体现了呵护流动性以及稳定债市的意图。 日前召开的中国人民银行货币政策委员会2025年第三季度例会在研究下阶段货币政策主要思路时提出，保持流动性充裕， 引导金融机构加大货币信贷投放力度，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹配。 王青认为，综合当前经济增长动能变化、物价走势，以及更大力度推动房地产市场止跌回稳的要求，预计四季度数量型货 币政策工具会进一步发力，央行有可能实施新一轮降准，并适时恢复国债买卖。同时，四季度央行还将综合运用买断式逆回购 和MLF操作，持续向市场注入中期流动性，这意味着年底前市场流动性将继续处于充裕状态，市场利率上行空间不大。 本报记者 ...

Market Overview - The risk scoring for the stock market by Zhongtai Asset Management is 45.79, a significant drop from 62.77 last month, primarily due to a notable decline in market sentiment [2] - The valuation of the CSI 300 index has increased to 64.74 from 61.90 last month, marking a continuous rise in the overall valuation center for six months [2] - There is a clear differentiation in valuations across sectors, with industries like steel, electronics, real estate, and others remaining above the historical 60th percentile, while the agriculture sector remains below the 10th percentile [2] Economic Indicators - Market expectation scores have slightly improved to 55.00 from 50.00 last month, driven by better-than-expected import and export growth in September [3] - Economic growth has slowed since Q3, but there is no acceleration in the downturn compared to the same period last year [3] - The global liquidity environment is becoming more accommodative due to the Federal Reserve's preventive rate cuts, but geopolitical conflicts and uneven recovery among major economies add uncertainty to the domestic economic environment [3] Market Sentiment - Market sentiment has experienced a drastic decline to 22.24 from 70.03 last month, indicating a shift from a significantly positive to a low sentiment range [5] - Various sentiment indicators have shown a cooling trend, with margin financing scores dropping significantly and retail fund inflows into the equity market slowing down [5] - The current market presents a mixed pattern of rising valuation centers, stable expectations, and sharply declining sentiment, suggesting a need for investors to approach market indicators with rationality [5] Bond Market Analysis - The risk scoring for the bond market is 61.7, reflecting a continuation of weak economic data, particularly in consumption [7] - Fixed asset investment growth has turned negative for the first time since the pandemic, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 0.5% [8] - The overall liquidity in the market has shown signs of marginal weakening, with a decline in social financing growth since July [9] Key Economic Data - In Q3 2025, the actual GDP growth rate is 4.8%, with nominal GDP growth at 3.7% [8] - The industrial value-added growth in September is reported at 6.5%, while retail sales growth is at 3.0% [8] - The total social financing in September is 3.53 trillion yuan, with new RMB loans amounting to 1.61 trillion yuan [9]

Market Overview - Global equity and bond markets experienced an overall increase in Q3 2025, with domestic indices like ChiNext and Sci-Tech 50 leading the gains [1] - The A-share market showed strong performance, particularly in the technology TMT and advanced manufacturing sectors, which rose by 37.2% and 27.1% respectively [1] - The trading logic for the market is influenced by reduced policy disturbances from the US government, alleviated growth and inflation concerns, and a favorable liquidity environment [1] Macro Analysis - The US economy is expected to grow by 1.8% in 2025, a significant decrease from the nearly 3% growth rate of the previous three years, but still away from recession [2] - Inflation in the US remains under control, with the core PCE expected to rise moderately starting mid-2025 [2] - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts are anticipated to support economic resilience in the US [3] Chinese Economy - Domestic demand has weakened, while external demand remains stable, with industrial output growth slowing in July and August [4] - Fixed asset investment shows stable demand, but new home sales are still poor, and the unemployment rate has slightly increased [5] - Inflation in China is showing signs of improvement, with PPI declines expected to narrow [6] Asset Analysis - Bond yields have risen significantly in Q3, driven by pressures on the liability side, with long-term rates increasing more than short-term rates [7] - The bond market is expected to return to being driven by economic fundamentals after the release of liability pressures [7] - The credit environment remains relatively loose, with a slight increase in social financing growth [6] A-share Market - The A-share market has shown a strong upward trend, with significant capital inflows and a focus on the technology TMT sector [11] - Earnings expectations for Q3 are stable, but there may be high base pressure in Q4 [11] - The overall market valuation has exceeded historical averages, indicating potential volatility [11] Investment Strategy - The recommendation is to overweight equities while maintaining a standard allocation to bonds, focusing on sectors with high growth potential such as AI and semiconductors [15] - For bonds, a balanced approach is suggested, with an emphasis on short to medium-term high-yield options [16] - In the A-share market, a more balanced allocation strategy is advised, considering the recent significant gains [17]

1. 公开市场操作 央行公告称， 10 月 22 日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了 1382 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，操作利率 1.40% ，投标量 1382 亿元，中标量 1382 亿元。 Wind 数据显示，当日 435 亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放 947 亿元。 （*数据来源：Wind-央行动态PBOC） 2. 资金面 央行 公开市场逆回购连续两日净投放，不过力度有限，随着税期及月末临近，银行间市场周三资金面稍显敛意但未脱稳势，存款类机构隔夜回购利率继 续在 1.31% 位置徘徊；匿名点击（ X-repo ）系统上，隔夜报价小升至 1.32% ，供给仍较为有限。非银机构以存单及信用债等抵押融入隔夜，报价在 1.4% 左右，暂变化不大。交易员指出， 央行 呵护下，流动性并无大碍，料在国库现金及 MLF （ 中期借贷便利 ）等续做下，资金整体压力可控。 海外方面，最新美国隔夜融资担保利率为 4.16% 。 （IMM） // 债市综述 // （*数据来源：Wind-国际货币资金情绪指数、资金综合屏） 3. 同业存单 全国和主要股份制银行一年期同业存单最新成交在 1.67% 附近，较上日小幅上行。 ...

Group 1: China Economic Outlook - The company holds an optimistic view on China's economic prospects, driven by government support for large tech platforms and a focus on technological self-sufficiency [1][16] - There is significant potential for innovation across the entire technology value chain, particularly in semiconductors and artificial intelligence [1][16] - The recovery in the real estate market is expected to boost consumer confidence, contributing to a positive economic outlook [16] Group 2: Gold Market Insights - Gold prices have seen a significant increase, with a notable rise from $3,700 to around $4,380 in October, attracting international investor attention [1][3] - The company suggests maintaining a 5% allocation of gold in investment portfolios, advising against increasing this proportion despite recent strong performance [2][6][7] - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive, with expectations of upward price movement despite potential short-term adjustments [4][5] Group 3: U.S. Economic Analysis - The U.S. economy is transitioning from consumer-driven growth to investment-driven growth, supported by the AI boom and manufacturing reshoring [10][11] - Concerns exist regarding the credit market, particularly in private credit sectors where transparency is low, posing potential risks [15] - The company anticipates a slight economic slowdown in the U.S., with growth rates projected to decline to around 1.7% or 1.8% by the end of 2025 [10][11] Group 4: Investment Themes and Strategies - The restructuring of global supply chains and the pursuit of strategic autonomy will be key themes over the next decade, influencing investment strategies [18][22] - The company emphasizes the importance of identifying companies with sustainable business models in the tech and healthcare sectors, particularly those leveraging AI [20][21] - There is a focus on sectors with lower valuations in China, such as technology and biotechnology, which are expected to present attractive investment opportunities [17][21]

10月22日，港股调整蓄势，接连2日收涨的恒生科技盘中一度跌超1.5%。主流ETF方面，A股同赛道规 模最大的恒生科技指数ETF（513180）跟随指数跌超2%，持仓股中，网易、比亚迪电子、京东健康、 金山软件、百度集团、联想集团等领跌。 中信证券（香港）指出，2025年四季度投资主题是流动性与政策"协奏曲"。其中流动性叙事方面，该机 构认为，美联储降息周期重启，预防式降息有利于股市上涨。复盘1984年以来美联储的9轮降息周期， 在预防式降息周期中，港股市场往往具有显著弹性，主要系港股投资者结构多元，是内外资金交汇点， 在预防式降息周期当中，政策和盈利预期传导快。 此外，港股市场具备了国内完整的AI产业链公司（包括基础设施、软硬件、应用），叠加越来越多的 优质龙头A股企业赴港上市，港股基本面的触底反弹，其判断港股仍将受益于境内外市场的流动性外溢 和AI叙事的持续催化，仍有估值扩张空间，2024年初以来的长牛行情预计延续。 而港股科技板块的预期弹性更高。此外，除了估值的视角，港股科技的价格走势也同样呈现为高性价比 区域。最后，AI创新和投入也夯实了恒生科技指数业绩增长的预期。展望2026年，港股基本面预计触 底 ...