策略报告 | 投资策略 银行大规模定增 证券研究报告 微观流动性跟踪(2025.6.9-2025.6.22) 投资要点：六月伊以冲突逐步缓和，美联储已有两位官员表示可能尽快降息，同时中美贸易依然 处于谈判阶段，外围风险暂缓。从资金面来看，偏股型公募基金新发份额较上期回暖，存量股票 型 ETF 净赎回额收窄，南向资金持续净流入，表明投资者信心增加，风险偏好提升，但当前依然 处于攻坚阶段，同时近期多家商业银行大规模定增也带动融资规模显著提升。后续一方面需关注 中美谈判是否持续有新进展，另一方面关注国内下个月的中央政治局会议对当前局势的最新研判。 ⚫ 微观流动性整体：偏股公募新发份额回暖，南向资金持续净流入。 本期资金供给合计 292 亿元，资金需求 4513 亿元，整体对于市场净流出 4221 亿元。1）偏股 型公募新发份额回暖；2）南向资金持续净流入；3）融资规模显著提升主因多家商业银行增发。 ⚫ 股权融资：融资规模显著提升。 以发行日统计，本期股权融资规模 4,307.79 亿元，上期 IPO+再融资整体募资规模达 52.59 亿 元，本期较上期整体募资规模大幅上升，主因本期中国银行、交通银行、邮储银行均有大 ...

流动性日报 | 2025-06-27 市场流动性概况 2025-06-26，股指板块成交4550.19亿元，较上一交易日变动-26.80%；持仓金额10135.30亿元，较上一交易日变动 -4.83%；成交持仓比为44.51%。 国债板块成交2499.35亿元，较上一交易日变动-30.48%；持仓金额8863.54亿元，较上一交易日变动-0.05%；成交持 仓比为28.93%。 基本金属板块成交2959.58亿元，较上一交易日变动+30.63%；持仓金额3963.72亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.46%； 成交持仓比为119.65%。 贵金属板块成交3209.22亿元，较上一交易日变动-20.27%；持仓金额4362.72亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.27%；成 交持仓比为79.15%。 能源化工板块成交5462.92亿元，较上一交易日变动+4.83%；持仓金额3913.21亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.13%；成 交持仓比为97.88%。 农产品板块成交3397.47亿元，较上一交易日变动+12.62%；持仓金额5595.45亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.13%；成 交持仓比为60.37%。 黑色建材板块成交185 ...

离岸人民币同业拆息利率全线上涨 HKMA日间回购协议流动性被用逾八成 金十数据6月27日讯，衡量离岸人民币流动性的关键指标--离岸人民币香港银行同业拆息周五显示：主 要期限利率全线上行；其中隔夜Hibor涨18个基点至2.02212%，创5月30日以来新高。另外香港金管局 (HKMA)200亿元人民币的日间回购协议流动性已被调用逾八成。一周期Hibor涨18个基点至2.06061%， 触及4月7日以来高位；两周期Hibor升15个基点至2.02848%，至4月9日以来高点；一年期Hibor升9个基 点至2.07515%，创4月25日以来新高。点击链接查看历史数据>> 相关链接 美元/离岸人民币 ...

2025. 6 深圳私享会 洪总发言： 谈到下半年的看法，今年上半年我经历了一个非常有意思的年份。如果大家 有跟踪我的报告，会发现在去年年底以及今年 2 月份和 3 月份的时候，我们都给 各位发出了非常明显的预警。整个全球市场，不仅仅是美国市场，包括我们中国 的 A 股市场和港股市场，都经历了非常严重的非理性下跌。 所以如果你现在看看，上证指数现在大概在 3400 点左右，没有到 3400 点， 恒生指数大概在 24000 点左右。但是如果我手上有仓位，要经历这么一波下跌， 尤其是在四月份的时候，当我向投资人汇报投资业绩的时候，数据会非常难看。 往往在历史性暴跌的时候，是最容易发生赎回的时候。投资人在这种关键时刻是 最没有耐心继续持有的时候。往往是在历史性低点的时候，赎回的压力会导致整 个投资组合的进一步暴跌。就像你的投资组合，即便你觉得以后还是会涨回来， 但是到了月底，面对投资人时已经是"全军覆没"了，因为很多投资人已经把仓位 赎回了。 而且赎回的时候往往是先从表现最好的持仓开始。所以等赎回完了之后，你 手里可能优质仓位没有了，最好的仓位全部被卖掉，因为只有表现好的资产才会 在最危机的时候有流动性。所以我们 ...

ETF进化论 市场流动性收紧？ 原创 阅读全文 ...

Market Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index showed divergence in moving averages, indicating a high probability of market adjustment on the specified date [1] - The market initially adjusted due to poor performance of Chinese concept stocks in the US overnight, followed by a volatile upward movement driven by fund inertia [1] - By the end of the trading day, over 3,600 stocks declined while only about 1,600 rose, confirming the previous day's analysis [1] Economic Indicators - Despite rising expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, the logic of domestic liquidity easing remains unchanged, suggesting a positive mid-term outlook for the market [1] - The MACD indicator showed a golden cross, but the market experienced a volume contraction adjustment, which is considered a normal fluctuation process [1] Sector Performance - The innovative drug sector performed poorly due to skepticism about the low upfront payments received by leading stocks, raising doubts about the prospects of innovative drugs going overseas [2] - The battery sector initially rose due to quantitative fund support but later experienced a pullback, impacting overall sector sentiment [2] - The military industry sector, expected to strengthen due to news from Iran, also followed the overall market decline, indicating weakness [2] Investment Opportunities - Nvidia and Broadcom reaching new highs is a positive signal for related hardware sectors in the A-share market, although valuations of related stocks are no longer considered undervalued, warranting caution from investors [2]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a collective decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.22%, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.48%, and the ChiNext Index down by 0.66%, while the total market turnover was 16,231 billion yuan, a decrease of 163 billion yuan from the previous day [1][17]. Banking Sector Performance - The banking sector reached new highs, with major banks such as ICBC, Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, and others continuing to climb. The banking sector has seen a year-to-date increase of 16.94%, leading among 31 primary industries [3]. Hong Kong Monetary Authority Intervention - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) intervened by purchasing 9.42 billion HKD due to the Hong Kong dollar's exchange rate triggering the "weak side convertibility guarantee." This marked the first intervention since May 2023, resulting in a decrease in the banking system's liquidity to 164.098 billion HKD [4][6]. Hibor Rate Movements - Following the HKMA's intervention, the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (Hibor) saw a significant rise, with the overnight Hibor increasing from 0.02071% to 0.03750%, marking a daily increase of 1.688 basis points. The one-month Hibor also rose for the fourth consecutive day, reaching 0.96554% [4][6]. ETF Market Activity - The market saw significant inflows into several ETFs, particularly in the financial sector, with notable net inflows into the China A500 ETF and various Hong Kong financial ETFs. The total net inflow for the week into the China A500 ETF was 78.32 billion yuan [20][22]. U.S. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Outlook - Expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve have increased, with several officials indicating support for a rate cut in July. The upcoming economic data for June and July will be crucial in determining the Fed's actions [11][12][16].

Group 1 - Global large investors are preparing for the traditional trading lull with unusual caution due to oil price volatility risks and potential tariff impacts, which could disrupt market complacency and lead to a repeat of last August's market crash [1] - As the July 9 deadline for US-EU tariff negotiations approaches, asset management firms are increasing portfolio protection, with a lack of consensus on baseline tax rates suggesting that blind optimism regarding trade risks may not last [1] - HSBC's Chief Investment Officer, Xavier Baraton, expressed concerns that the optimistic expectations priced into the market may fall short in the next three months, prompting strategies such as buying put options to hedge risks [1] Group 2 - The market's calm trading environment is partly attributed to the relationship between VIX and risk asset prices, influenced by automated trading funds that buy stocks when VIX declines and sell when it rises, which was a factor in last August's flash crash [2] - Royal London Asset Management's multi-asset head, Trevor Greetham, noted that while their automated systems are signaling stock purchases, fund managers have opted to sell some stocks to manage portfolio risk [2] - UBS's European equity strategy head, Gerry Fowler, indicated that options pricing suggests traders are betting on increased daily stock market volatility, warning that this summer may not be an ideal time for vacations due to various catalysts [3]

| CTE HERE | | | 日度策略参考 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 行业板块 | 品种 | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | | | | | 短期内,a股市场流动性尚可,加上地缘政治冲突大幅缓解,海外 | | | | | 扰动减弱,股指预计偏强震荡。 | | 宏观金融 | 国债) | | 资产需和弱经济利好债期。但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 空间。 | | | | | 市场风险偏好改善,金价短期或承压;但地缘和关税等不确定性 | | | | 農汤 | 仍高企,金价或难持续下挫,料震荡运行。 | | | 白银 | 震荡 | 银价短期震荡为主。 | | | 37 | | 近期美联储多位官员发表鸽派言论。再出口窗口打开情况下,铜 库存有望进一步下滑，铜价短期震荡偏强运行。 | | | | | 近期国内电解铝库存水平偏低,而下游需求进入淡季,铝价震荡 | | | | 農汤 | 运行。 | | | | | 氧化铝现货价格持续回调,但盘面价格更弱,期货维持贴水,限 | | | 氢化铝 | 黑汤 | 制下方空间。另一方面,冶炼端(现货)利润尚可,产量提升, | | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The small-cap indices, represented by the CSI 1000 and CSI 2000, have shown strong performance with significant inflows into related ETF products, indicating a robust market sentiment and potential investment opportunities in these segments [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The CSI 1000 index saw 9 stocks hitting the daily limit up, while the CSI 2000 had 28 stocks, reflecting a strong upward trend with respective gains of 0.47% and 0.72% [1]. - The CSI 1000 Enhanced ETF (159680) received a substantial inflow of 3 million in a single transaction, totaling a net inflow of 22.43 million over the past two trading days [1]. Group 2: ETF Performance - Both the CSI 1000 Enhanced ETF (159680) and the CSI 2000 Enhanced ETF (159552) have outperformed their benchmark indices, achieving excess returns of 7.36% and 13.41% respectively from the beginning of the year to June 25 [3]. Group 3: Driving Forces - The market's performance is driven by three main engines: 1. Liquidity and policy support, with multiple reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates enhancing market liquidity, benefiting small and micro enterprises [3][4]. 2. Enhanced strategies in ETFs that utilize active management to generate excess returns through industry rotation, stock selection, and risk control [6]. 3. A favorable environment for growth sectors, with policies supporting AI, robotics, military, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals, aligning with the majority of the components in the CSI 1000 and CSI 2000 indices [4]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The current market conditions resemble the bullish sentiment of September 2022, suggesting that growth stocks within the CSI 1000 and CSI 2000 indices are likely to be key focus areas for investors [7]. - Enhanced ETFs are positioned as offensive allocations in investment portfolios, with recommendations to balance risk by pairing with dividend or bank stocks for a better experience [8].