Group 1: Market Overview - The S&P 500 index rose by 1.5% last week, driven by signs of easing in the US-China trade war[11] - The Nasdaq 100 increased by 2.0%, while the Russell 2000 saw a rise of 3.2%[11] - The trade war has shown signs of thawing, with a meeting between US and Chinese officials being viewed as a significant step towards negotiations[11] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The US consumer confidence index surged from 85.7 in April to 98 in May, marking the first increase since November of the previous year[20] - The April Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 0.1% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 2.5%[25] - The unemployment rate slightly increased from 4.187% in April to 4.244% in May, indicating a rise in joblessness despite a modest increase in non-farm payrolls[35] Group 3: Market Risks - There is a persistent trend of de-dollarization in global liquidity, as investors show reduced confidence in US dollar assets[16] - The ISM manufacturing PMI fell to 48.5 in May, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector for the third consecutive month[41] - The forecast for S&P 500 earnings per share (EPS) has been revised downwards by approximately 4.0% in April and May, reflecting concerns over inflation and tariffs[46]

Group 1 - The number of initial unemployment claims in the U.S. rose to 247,000, the highest level in eight months, indicating potential job market weakness due to trade policy uncertainties [1][3] - Many companies, including Procter & Gamble, Dow, Starbucks, Southwest Airlines, Microsoft, and Meta, have announced significant layoffs, with Procter & Gamble planning to cut 7,000 jobs, approximately 15% of its non-production workforce [2] - The U.S. private sector added only 37,000 jobs in May, significantly below the expected 115,000, marking the lowest level since the beginning of 2023, reflecting a slowdown in hiring [3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve has maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.3% for the third consecutive time, with concerns about rising unemployment and inflation complicating its dual mandate [1] - Economic uncertainty stemming from the Trump administration's trade policies has led to decreased employer hiring intentions, contributing to a softening labor market [3][4] - Reports indicate that states like Kentucky and Tennessee have seen a notable increase in unemployment claims, potentially linked to layoffs in the automotive sector due to import tariffs [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: US May ADP employment growth fell short of expectations and the previous value; OECD cut the global growth forecast for the second time this year, slashing the US economic growth forecast from 2.8% to 1.6%. After the China - US tariff relief, US consumer confidence was significantly boosted, but the improvement in the labor market was limited, and the long - term economic resilience still needed to be observed [6]. - Domestic macro: Against the backdrop of the continued implementation of the "rush export/trans - shipment" and "two new" policies, the profits and PMI of manufacturing enterprises generally maintained strong resilience. The trade friction easing and policies supported the overall stability of manufacturing production and operation [6]. - Asset views: For major asset classes, maintain the view of more hedging and more volatility overseas and a structural market in China. Strategically allocate gold and non - US dollar assets. Overseas, even if Trump's tariffs are blocked, it cannot solve the fundamental deficit problem in the US. In China, the growth - stabilizing policy remains steadfast, and the second - quarter economic growth rate is supported by export resilience and the tariff - easing window period. The bond market still has value for dip - buying after the capital pressure eases. The stock market and commodities return to the fundamental logic, showing short - term range - bound fluctuations [6]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Essentials - Overseas: US May ADP employment increased by 37,000, lower than the expected 110,000 and the previous value of 62,000. The number of job vacancies in April increased, and the consumer confidence index in May jumped from 85.7 to 98.0, but the labor market improvement was limited [6]. - Domestic: From January to April, the total profit of large - scale industrial enterprises was 2.11702 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. The manufacturing PMI in May was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points month - on - month [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Macro - Domestic: Moderate reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and short - term fiscal implementation of established policies [8]. - Overseas: The inflation expectation structure flattened, the economic growth expectation improved, and the stagflation trading cooled down [8]. 3.2.2 Finance - Stock index futures: Focus on local large - consumption hotspots, with market sentiment oscillating [8]. - Stock index options: Volatility declined continuously, and cautious covered call strategies were recommended, with the market oscillating [8]. - Treasury bond futures: Treasury bond futures rose collectively, and the market oscillated [8]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: Due to the better - than - expected progress of China - US negotiations, precious metals continued to adjust in the short term, with the market oscillating [8]. 3.2.4 Shipping - Container shipping to Europe: Attention was paid to the game between peak - season expectations and the implementation of price increases, with the market oscillating [8]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - Steel: Pessimistic demand expectations and a downward - moving cost support, with the market oscillating [8]. - Iron ore: Overseas shipments increased, and the price oscillated [8]. - Coke: As the off - season deepened, there was still an expectation of price cuts, with the market oscillating and falling [8]. - Coking coal: Upstream inventory accumulation intensified, and the price remained weak, with the market oscillating and falling [8]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: Inventory continued to accumulate, and the copper price oscillated at a high level, with the market oscillating and rising [8]. - Alumina: The event of mining license revocation was not yet finalized, and the alumina contract oscillated at a high level, with the market oscillating and falling [8]. - Aluminum: With the easing of trade tensions, the aluminum price oscillated strongly [8]. 3.2.7 Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Supply pressure persisted, and attention was paid to macro and geopolitical disturbances, with the market oscillating [11]. - LPG: Demand remained weak, and PG was in short - term bottom - finishing, with the market oscillating [11]. - Asphalt: The asphalt futures price was overestimated and awaited a decline [11]. - Methanol: Coal prices temporarily stabilized, and methanol oscillated [11]. 3.2.8 Agriculture - Oils: There was an expectation of improvement in China - Canada trade relations, but rapeseed oil still performed weakly, with the market oscillating [11]. - Protein meal: The spot market sentiment cooled down, and the contract price followed the correction, with the market oscillating [11]. - Corn/Starch: The trading was dull, and the futures price oscillated [11]. - Pork: The supply for slaughter increased, and the pork price continued to fall, with the market oscillating and falling [11].

澳大利亚4月零售销售额环比意外下降0.1%，远低于市场预期的增长0.3%，结束连续三个月增长态势。 数据显示，当月零售总额达372亿澳元（239.1亿美元），同比增速放缓至3.8%。澳大利亚统计局指出， 异常温暖天气延缓冬装采购，服装零售下降明显。百货商店因缺乏促销活动表现疲软，仅食品杂货和餐 饮消费因昆士兰洪水后补偿性支出有所回升。尽管通胀降温且利率下调，消费疲软态势持续。零售销售 约占家庭消费35%，其低迷预示二季度经济开局乏力。去年消费对经济增长几无贡献，创近衰退水平纪 录。这促使澳洲联储5月降息25个基点至3.85%，市场预计年内还将至少降息三次至3.10%。但2月首次 降息效果有限，一季度零售量基本持平。联储已下调今年消费预期，但仍寄望于减税、通胀放缓及借贷 成本下降的组合效应。近期特朗普关税政策引发的市场动荡进一步抑制消费者信心，4月信心指数骤 跌。 周二（6月3日）亚市早盘，澳元/美元下跌，目前交投于0.64附近，截止北京时间11:31分，澳元/美元报 价0.6465，下跌0.38%，上一交易日澳元/美元收盘报0.6489。澳大利亚4月零售意外下滑消费者紧缩开支 强化降息预期。 在0.6365- ...

日本央行行长植田和男：如果美国关税损害出口商的利润，可能会对家庭和企业产生更广泛的影响，例 如削弱消费者信心。 ...

Group 1 - The Taiwan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose by 2.1 percentage points to 51% in May, indicating a shift from contraction to expansion compared to April [1] - The future outlook index for May is at 40.9%, marking the second consecutive month of contraction [1] - Among the five components of the PMI, new orders and employment remain in contraction, while production activity has shifted to expansion [1] Group 2 - In the manufacturing sector, three industries—electronics and optics, electrical and mechanical equipment, and chemicals and biotechnology—are experiencing expansion, while transportation, basic raw materials, and food and textiles are still in contraction [1] - The Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (NMI) rose by 0.9 percentage points to 51.9% in May, marking three consecutive months of expansion [1] - Factors such as conservative business outlook, stock market corrections, and low consumer confidence are impacting economic trends [2]

Core Viewpoint - The consumer confidence index in the U.S. for May remained stable compared to April, ending a four-month decline, influenced by temporary tariff suspensions that boosted optimism [1] Group 1: Consumer Confidence - The consumer confidence index for May was roughly flat compared to April, marking the end of a four-month downward trend [1] - Initial data in early May indicated a decline in confidence, but a recovery was observed in the latter half of the month due to the temporary suspension of certain tariffs [1] - Consumers showed improved expectations regarding the business environment after mid-May, likely a direct result of adjustments in trade policy [1] Group 2: Financial Outlook - Despite the positive changes in consumer confidence, overall income stagnation led to a decrease in satisfaction with personal financial situations, offsetting the optimistic trends [1] - Generally, consumers do not perceive the economic outlook as worse than the previous month, yet they maintain a high level of concern about the future [1]

智通财经APP获悉，美国消费者在4月份开始"踩刹车"，而通胀保持温和，这与经济放缓趋势相符。美 国经济分析局周五公布的数据显示，4月经通胀因素调整后的个人支出增长0.1%，上月增长0.7%。与此 同时，美联储青睐的通胀指标依然温和。不包括食品和能源的核心个人消费支出(PCE)物价指数环比上 涨0.1%，同比则上涨2.5%，是四年多来最小的年度涨幅。 | Metric | Actual | Estimate | | --- | --- | --- | | PCE price index (MoM) | +0.1% | +0.1% | | Core PCE price index (MoM) | +0.1% | +0.1% | | PCE price index (YoY) | +2.1% | +2.2% | | Core PCE price index (YoY) | +2.5% | +2.5% | | Real consumer spending (MoM) | +0.1% | 0.0% | 周五公布的另一项数据显示，进口下降近20%，导致美国4月份商品贸易逆差大幅收窄。 这些数据表明，在经历了近两年来支出最 ...

据央视新闻，美国联邦巡回上诉法院当地时间5月29日批准特朗普政府的请求，暂时中止美国国际贸易法院此 前做出的禁止执行特朗普政府对多国加征关税措施的行政令的裁决。自美国国际贸易法院28日裁定禁止执行美 政府多个关税行政令后，特朗普政府多名官员就指责这一裁决，提起了上诉。 当地时间29日，白宫新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特称，美国国际贸易法院"叫停"特朗普政府多个关税行政令的裁决 是"司法越权"。她还称，美国政府已经提出了一项紧急动议，要求在上诉期间暂缓执行判决，并立即采取行政 措施，以最终推翻美国国际贸易法院的裁决。 当天，美国白宫经济顾问哈塞特和白宫贸易顾问纳瓦罗也称，即便法院的裁决继续有效，特朗普政府也会用其 他法律来实施关税政策。 当地时间5月29日，美国联邦巡回上诉法院批准特朗普政府的请求，暂时搁置美国国际贸易法院此前做出的禁 止执行特朗普政府依据《国际紧急经济权力法》对多国加征关税措施的行政令的裁决。 联邦巡回上诉法院在裁决书中说，美国政府的请求已获批准，在本法院审议相关动议文件期间，美国国际贸易 法院在这些案件中作出的判决和永久性禁令将暂时中止，直至另行通知。 特朗普政府早些时候向该上诉法院表示，如果禁止关 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported net sales of $400.4 million for Q4 2025, a decline of 11.7% compared to the prior year [4][14] - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $47.1 million, representing 11.8% of net sales, down from 12.1% in the same period last year [7][17] - Adjusted net income was $24 million or $1.61 per diluted share, compared to $28.2 million or $1.78 per diluted share last year [17] - The gross profit margin decreased by 160 basis points to 17% of net sales from 18.6% in the prior year [15] - For the full fiscal year, net sales were $1.7 billion, a decrease of 7.5% year-over-year [19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Remodel net sales decreased by 10.4% in Q4, with home centers and dealer distributors both declining by approximately 10-11% [14] - New construction net sales decreased by 13.4% for the quarter compared to last year [14] - The home center business saw a low single-digit negative comp, while the pro business reported a positive comp for the quarter [5] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Existing home sales fell by 0.5% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4 million in April 2025, with a year-over-year decline of 2% [4] - The NAHB housing market index dropped to 34 in May, marking the lowest level since November 2023 [6] - Single-family housing starts experienced negative comps from January to April [6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company focuses on three main pillars: growth, digital transformation, and platform design [10] - Key accomplishments include product innovation, capacity investments, and channel expansion despite a challenging macroeconomic environment [10] - The company is enhancing its manufacturing capabilities and transitioning independent distributor customers to a new brand [11][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expects demand trends to remain challenging, with net sales outlook ranging from low single-digit declines to low single-digit increases for fiscal year 2026 [9][21] - The company anticipates that as mortgage rates decline and consumer confidence increases, there will be a potential for higher ticket home projects [9] - Management highlighted the importance of removing uncertainty related to tariffs for future growth [50] Other Important Information - The company repurchased 1.17 million shares for $96.7 million during fiscal year 2025, representing about 7.5% of outstanding shares [20] - Free cash flow totaled $65.7 million for the fiscal year, down from $138.5 million in the prior year [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of tariffs on full year guidance - Management indicated that the outlook was significantly influenced by tariffs, estimating a cost impact of approximately $20 million [27][28] Question: Improvement in gross margins - The improvement in gross margins was attributed to operational adjustments made in Q4 following a challenging Q3 [30][31] Question: Revenue guidance assumptions for end markets - The revenue guidance assumes a consistent recovery across both remodel and new construction markets, with expectations for better performance in the second half of fiscal year 2026 [37][38] Question: Cost considerations beyond tariffs - Management acknowledged potential commodity inflation and labor costs as additional factors impacting guidance [44] Question: Savings from facility closure - The closure of a components facility is expected to yield annual savings of $5-6 million in EBITDA [46]