20年期美债收益率涨3.23个基点，30年期美债收益率涨3.65个基点。 周一（5月5日，非农就业报告发布之后一个交易日）纽约尾盘，美国10年期国债收益率涨2.92个基点， 报4.3375%，北京时间19:37跌至4.2869%刷新日低之后反弹，01:41刷新日高至4.3687%。 三年期美债收益率涨0.57个基点，五年期美债收益率涨1.74个基点，七年期美债收益率涨2.61个基点。 两年期美债收益率涨1.24个基点，报3.8364%，20:12刷新日低至3.7868%，22:00发布美国ISM非制造业 数据时短线拉升，02:09刷新日高至3.8550%。 2/10年期美债收益率利差涨1.67个基点，报+49.903个基点。 ...

2025年5月2日，离岸人民币兑美元大幅上涨超过500点，日内涨幅超过0.7%，报7.226。同日，港股市场 表现强劲，恒生指数收涨1.74%，恒生科技指数收涨3.08%。科网股全线大涨，小米集团涨超6%，阿里 巴巴涨3.8%，腾讯涨2.56%，金山云涨超4%。 中国人民银行副行长邹澜在4月28日的国新办新闻发布会上表示，关注到近期美债市场出现波动，长期 以来，我国外汇储备以安全、流动、保值增值为目标，按照市场化、专业化原则，在国际金融市场开展 投资。邹澜还表示，下阶段，人民银行将继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策，加力支持实体经济；同时， 坚持以市场供求为基础、参考一篮子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度。坚持市场在汇率形成中的 决定性作用，增强外汇市场的韧性，稳定市场预期，加强市场管理。 本文源自：金融界 作者：观察君 美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特在当地时间5月1日表示，美国国债市场正在发出信号，美联储应该降低利 率。贝森特指出，两年期美债收益率目前低于联邦基金利率，这是一个明确的信号，表明市场认为美联 储应降息。截至14：00，两年期美债收益率报3.717%，而基准联邦基金利率为4.33%。美联储目前将联 邦基 ...

当地时间周四，美国财政部长贝森特在接受媒体采访时表示，两年期美债收益率发出美联储应该降息的 信号： 美国国债市场正在发出美联储应该降息的信号。我们看到两年期美债收益率已低于联邦基 金利率。这表明市场认为美联储应该考虑降息。 贝森特的最新表态呼应了美国总统特朗普。特朗普此前多次批评鲍威尔今年未降息，认为能源和其他物 价的下降足以支持降息。 当天，美国高通胀吹哨人、前美国财政部长萨默斯 驳斥：不能靠市场指导，下周降息大错。 市场对贝森特提到的"两年期美债收益率发出美联储应该降息的信号"也不买单， 美国两年期国债收益率 盘中涨幅扩大至10个基点，报3.7%。 美国 前 财政部长萨默斯驳斥 周四，美国高通胀吹哨人、前美国财政部长萨默斯表示， 债券市场的定价并不等于对美联储应否调整 利率的判断。他强调，如果政策制定者在下周放松政策，将是一个"非常严重的错误"。 萨默斯表示，如果之前已经开始降息，那将是一个严重错误，而在即将召开的会议上降息同样会是一个 非常严重的错误。若在5月7日降息，将削弱市场对美联储抗击通胀决心的信心，从而推高长期借贷成 本。 "新美联储通讯社"点评 有"新美联储通讯社"之称的知名财经记者Nick ...

周二（4月29日）纽约尾盘，美国10年期基准国债收益率下跌3.66个基点，报4.1716%，日内交投于 4.2428%-4.1620%区间。 两年期美债收益率跌4.29个基点，报3.6499%，日内交投于3.7132%-3.6458%区间。 ...

与此同时，美国4月谘商会消费者信心指数降至86，创2020年5月份以来新低。 美国3月JOLTS职位空缺降至719.2万人，创2024年9月份以来新低，预期略微回落至750万人，前值756.8万人。 彭博数据显示，两年期美债收益率跌穿3.65%刷新日低，日内整体跌超4个基点。 数据发布后，美国10年期国债收益率跌至4.1736%刷新日低，日内整体跌幅扩大至超过3个基点。 ...

智通财经APP注意到，上周，标普500指数一度突破摩根士丹利设定的5500点阻力位，这主要受到中美 之间可能降低关税和美联储政策转向的乐观情绪推动。不过分析师警告称，这种突破行情仍然脆弱。 摩根士丹利分析师建议超配美股而非国际股票，尤其是容易受到美元走势影响的欧洲和日本股票。威尔 逊总结道："美国企业盈利的稳定性、质量因子优势以及潜在的汇率利好，在这个波动加剧的周期末段 创造了相对优势。" 摩根士丹利首席美股策略师兼首席投资官迈克尔.威尔逊在报告中指出："要持续突破5600-5650点区间， 需要四个催化剂取得实质性进展：关税实质性减免、美联储转向鸽派、长期利率低于4%且不伴随衰退 信号，以及盈利预期上调。" 他重申："投资者应该利用市场波动来增加优质资产配置——包括防御股和精选周期股——而不是追逐 那些缺乏基本面确认的突破行情。" 债券与股票相关性变化使得收益率走势对市场方向至关重要，近期10年期美债收益率的波动凸显了周期 末段的风险。摩根士丹利分析师指出："如果10年期收益率因期限溢价压缩而跌破4%，可能推动股市上 涨，但如果收益率超过4.5%，则可能引发避险行为。" 报告还强调，劳动力市场稳定是避免摩根 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a growing pessimism among American consumers regarding their financial situation, employment prospects, and the overall economy, leading to reduced spending on major purchases [3][5] - A series of economic data releases are anticipated this week, including job vacancies, GDP, personal income and spending, and non-farm payroll data, which will provide insights into how businesses and consumers are adjusting to higher tariffs [4][6] - The likelihood of an economic recession in the next 12 months is projected at 55%, as indicated by RSM US, reflecting consumer fears of rising prices and economic slowdown [3] Group 2 - The Michigan Consumer Confidence Index showed a slight increase in late April, following the temporary suspension of some tariffs, but it remains the weakest in 32 months [4] - Gallup's recent survey revealed a record 53% of Americans feel their financial situation is deteriorating, surpassing the previous record set during the pandemic [5] - In the European market, bond yields showed mixed movements, with German bonds declining while Italian and French bonds mostly increased [5]

央行邹澜：对我国外储影响有限 4月28日上午，在国新办举行的新闻发布会上，中国人民银行副行长邹澜指出：近一段时间，美国宣布对多个经济体大幅加征关税，严重侵犯各国正当权 益，严重损害以规则为基础的多边治理体制，严重冲击全球经济秩序，破坏全球经济长期稳定增长。同时，也引发了全球金融市场剧烈波动，投资者对美元 资产的风险情绪上升，美元指数大幅下行，美债收益率上升，美国股市波动加剧，全球资产组合在区域间重新配置。 "从我国来看，经济开局良好，延续回升向好态势，金融体系保持稳健，金融市场展现出较强的韧性，运行平稳，人民币对美元汇率运行在7.3元左右。"邹 澜表示，长期以来，我国外汇储备以安全、流动、保值增值为目标，按照市场化、专业化原则，在国际金融市场开展投资，实现了投资组合较为有效的分散 化，单一市场、单一资产的变动，对我国外汇储备的影响总体有限。 2025年4月以来，美国国债市场经历了显著的波动。 4月初，受对等关税政策和美国经济软数据不佳的影响，2年期和10年期国债收益率分别降至3.44%和3.86%。之后，随着避险情绪的释放和中国采取反制措 施，市场对通胀的担忧加剧，加之美国交易商资金拆出意愿下降，回购市场流动 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall global risk appetite is rising as U.S. Treasury yields decline. In China, the economy started well in Q1, and the government will adopt more proactive macro - policies, which will support the domestic market risk appetite in the short term. Different asset classes have different trends and investment suggestions [2][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Financial - Overseas: The U.S. President plans to set "fair" tariff prices, and a trade agreement is expected to be reached in three to four weeks. Market expectations of a缓和 in the Sino - U.S. trade war and speculation about the Fed's potential interest - rate cuts have led to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields and an increase in global risk appetite. - Domestic: The Q1 domestic economy was better than expected, and the industrial enterprise profits in March turned positive year - on - year. The Politburo meeting signaled more proactive macro - policies, which will support the domestic market risk appetite in the short term. For assets, the stock index may rebound in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; the treasury bond may fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; the black commodity may fluctuate weakly in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; the non - ferrous metals may rebound in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; the energy and chemical products may rebound in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; the precious metals may fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long [2]. Stock Index - The domestic stock market declined slightly due to the drag of sectors such as precious metals, energy metals, and biomedicine. However, the good economic start in Q1 and the expected proactive macro - policies will support the domestic market risk appetite in the short term. It is advisable to be cautiously long in the short term [3]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market was volatile last week. Gold reached a record high and then fell back. Uncertainty in tariff policies and the ambiguity of the Fed's interest - rate cut path have increased the volatility of precious metals. In the long - term, the upward trend of gold remains unchanged, but in the short term, it may be volatile. Silver may follow gold passively and be weaker than gold. Key economic data in the U.S. need to be monitored next week [3][5]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot and futures prices of steel rebounded on Friday, but the apparent consumption of five major steel products declined, and the demand may have peaked. Although there are rumors of crude steel reduction, the steel output is still rising, and the short - term steel market may fluctuate within a range [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore declined on Friday. The iron - water output is high, but there are rumors of crude steel reduction, and the supply of iron ore may increase in the second quarter. It is advisable to view the short - term iron ore market as a range - bound one and pay attention to the peak of iron - water output [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron were flat. The demand for ferroalloys is okay, but the supply is declining. The short - term prices of ferroalloys may fluctuate within a range [7][8]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The oil price will remain in a narrow - range shock in the short term. Although there is support from current demand and inventory reduction, the increase in supply may put pressure on the price if demand weakens later [9]. - **Asphalt**: The short - term driving factors come from the macro - environment and crude oil. The asphalt supply is at a low level, and the demand has been slightly boosted before May Day. It will continue to fluctuate with crude oil [9]. - **PX**: After the stabilization of crude oil prices, the PX price rebounded. It will maintain a tight - balance state and may test the pressure level, showing a volatile pattern [9]. - **PTA**: The downstream start - up is high, but the terminal start - up is declining. The short - term price may rebound slightly but is limited by downstream conditions and will mainly fluctuate [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The obvious inventory - reduction time of ethylene glycol will be postponed, and it will maintain a weak - shock pattern [12]. - **Short - Fiber**: The demand is weak, and the short - fiber will maintain a weak - level shock [12]. - **Methanol**: The supply is less than expected, and the demand has led to inventory decline before the festival. The short - term price will repair in a shock, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously [12]. - **PP**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction of PP is not prominent, but there may be a negative demand feedback in the long - term. Attention should be paid to the maintenance progress [12]. - **LLDPE**: The PE downstream is basically stable. It is expected to fluctuate weakly before the festival, and it is advisable to wait and see cautiously [12]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The Politburo meeting proposed more proactive macro - policies, and the U.S. may lower tariffs on China. The supply of copper is at a high level, and the demand is in the peak season with declining inventory. The short - term market sentiment may be boosted, but the medium - term rebound height is limited [13]. - **Aluminum**: The production of electrolytic aluminum is at a high level, and the demand is strong with declining inventory. It is advisable to take partial profits on previous long positions [14]. - **Tin**: The supply may increase, and the demand is differentiated. The short - term price may rebound, but the rebound height is limited due to macro risks and the news of production resumption in Wa State [14]. Agricultural Products - **U.S. Soybeans**: The net long positions of U.S. soybean funds are increasing. Weather conditions in the U.S. soybean - producing areas need to be monitored, and the price may be easy to rise and difficult to fall at the beginning of sowing [15]. - **Soybean Meal**: The spot basis of domestic soybean meal has declined, and the short - term decline space of the 09 contract may be limited. It is advisable to reduce the short - position risk exposure [15]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic oil - mill start - up is low, and the soybean oil inventory is decreasing rapidly. The rapeseed oil is in the off - season with high inventory and weak basis [16][17]. - **Palm Oil**: If the U.S. biofuel policy is favorable, the palm oil demand is expected to be stable. The production of Malaysian palm oil is increasing, and the price may fluctuate within a range and be relatively strong [17]. - **Pigs**: The market is mainly trading seasonal trends. The spot price may be under pressure before May Day, and the futures may be dominated by risk - aversion sentiment and decline [17]. - **Corn**: Drought in Henan has led to a strong rebound in the corn price. The upper limit of the price range is restricted by weak demand and high inventory, while the lower limit is supported by low inventory in production areas, risk premium, and policy expectations. There is a possibility of the C05 contract declining to narrow the basis [18].

中原期货研究所 晨会纪要 2025 第（75）期 发布日期：2025-04-28 | 投资咨询业务资格 | | | --- | --- | | 证监发【2014】217 | 号 | | 中原期货研究所 | 0371-58620081 | | 0371-58620083 | | | 公司官方微信 | | 1 公司官方微信 中原期货研究所 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2025/4/28 | 2025/4/25 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 959.00 | 956.00 | 3.0 | 0.314 | | | 焦炭 | 1,577.00 | 1,566.00 | 11.0 | 0.702 | | | 天然橡胶 | 14,795.00 | 14,720.00 | 75.0 | 0.510 | | | 20号胶 | 12,355.00 | 12,300.00 | 55.0 | Q.447 | | | 塑料 | 7,154.00 | 7,150.00 | 4.0 | 0.056 ...