Core Viewpoint - Powell's dovish remarks are expected to support Asian stock and currency markets, with potential for a strong start in the upcoming week [1][2] Group 1: Market Reactions - Asian stock markets are likely to be buoyed by increased expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, particularly ahead of the September FOMC meeting [1] - The US stock market saw significant gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching a new high for the year, influenced by Powell's comments [1] - Emerging market currencies ended a six-day decline due to a substantial depreciation of the US dollar following Powell's statements [1] Group 2: Analyst Insights - Gerald Gan from Reed Capital suggests that if the trend of increasing rate cut expectations continues, Asian markets will be positively impacted, with controlled yen appreciation not severely affecting Japanese risk assets [1] - Priyanka Kishore from Asia Decoded notes that while a weaker dollar may temporarily boost Asian currencies, sustained gains depend on the Fed committing to more extensive easing policies [1] - Hebe Chen from Vantage Markets indicates that Powell's signals could help mend underlying market vulnerabilities, particularly in tech-heavy markets like Japan and Taiwan, where sentiment is fragile [1] - Jamie Halse from Senjin Capital believes that lower US rates may lead to capital flowing out of the US in search of higher returns, benefiting other regions [1] Group 3: Currency and Interest Rate Dynamics - Anna Wu from VanEck Associates highlights that Powell's moderate stance has alleviated barriers to a September rate cut, positively affecting stock and short-term bond markets [2] - Tim Waterer from KCM Trade emphasizes that the prospect of declining US rates may encourage investors to seek returns elsewhere, which is favorable for Asian economies [2] - Marito Ueda from SBI Liquidity Market points out that while Powell's comments suggest a possible rate cut, they are contingent on data, and the dollar-yen exchange rate may not break its volatility range [2] - Kazuya Fujiwara from Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities notes that Japanese government bond prices may stabilize due to US rate declines, but upside potential is limited due to expectations of BOJ rate hikes [2] - Yusuke Matsuo from Mizuho Securities states that the BOJ is considering rate hikes while the Fed is contemplating cuts, leading to a divergence in policy directions [2]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index is stabilizing at a high level, currently reported at 98.67, with a slight increase of 0.01%. However, there are indications that the dollar may weaken further as the Federal Reserve appears ready to restart interest rate cuts despite persistent inflation [1]. Group 1 - Recent rebound in the dollar is attributed to accelerated business activity and a significant increase in manufacturing orders, which reached an 18-month high, offsetting some weak employment data and reinforcing the dollar's safe-haven status [1]. - Concerns over disappointing July non-farm payroll data and worries about the independence of the Federal Reserve have led to market expectations for quicker and larger rate cuts, creating fertile ground for dollar depreciation amid rising inflation [1]. Group 2 - Technically, the dollar index faced resistance below 98.70 and found support above 98.15, suggesting a potential for an upward trend after a short-term decline. If the index stabilizes above 98.30 today, the upward target could be between 98.80 and 99.00 [1]. - Short-term resistance levels for the dollar index are identified at 98.75-98.80, with significant resistance at 98.95-99.00. Conversely, short-term support is noted at 98.30-98.35, with important support at 98.00-98.05 [1].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Bank of America indicates that the US dollar may weaken further as the Federal Reserve appears ready to restart interest rate cuts despite persistent inflation [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The disappointing non-farm payroll data for July and concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve have led to market expectations for quicker and larger rate cuts, even as inflation shows signs of stickiness [1] - The potential for interest rate cuts amid rising inflation creates a favorable environment for the depreciation of the dollar [1] Group 2: Currency Forecast - Bank of America forecasts that the EUR/USD exchange rate will rise from the current level of 1.1620 to 1.20 by the end of the year, and further to 1.25 by the end of 2026 [1]

美元贬值、美股新高、美联储主席换届……四十年前的历史正在重现，"黑色星期一"会卷土重来吗？ 今年以来，随着特朗普重返白宫，美元汇率持续走弱，美元指数累计下跌近10%，美元兑主要货币汇率一度跌至近三年低点。 如今，在美联储主席同样面临"换届"、政策利率路径前景趋于复杂之际，美股市场是否会再次走上40年前的"老路"？ 与此同时，在宽松预期升温、贸易局势缓和等因素的驱动下，标普、纳指已屡创历史新高。 而历史上，在1985年"广场协议"签署后，美国市场同样经历了一段"美元大跌、美股大涨"的相似历程。 据追风交易台消息，野村证券首席经济学家Richard Koo在近日发布的研报中指出，1985年的"广场协议"开启了一段美元急剧贬值、美国股市却屡创新高 的反常繁荣，这和当前美股的繁荣景象"非常相似"。 报告显示，在"广场协议"签署后的17个月内，美元对日元下跌36.5%，对德国马克、法国法郎和意大利里拉等主要欧洲货币下跌30.8%至36.6%。尽管各国 实体经济被迫进行重大调整，但美国股价却如同今日一般持续冲上历史新高。 这种看似矛盾的繁荣，很大程度上得益于当时市场对通胀并未失控的判断，尤其是当时的美联储主席保罗·沃克尔 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article draws parallels between the current economic situation and historical events from 40 years ago, particularly focusing on the potential for a repeat of the "Black Monday" stock market crash due to factors such as a weakening dollar and changes in Federal Reserve leadership [2][8]. Group 1: Economic Context - The dollar index has declined nearly 10% this year, reaching a three-year low against major currencies, coinciding with Trump's return to the White House [2]. - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have reached new historical highs, driven by expectations of monetary easing and improved trade conditions [4]. Group 2: Historical Comparison - The article references the "Plaza Accord" of 1985, which led to a significant depreciation of the dollar while the U.S. stock market experienced substantial gains, with the dollar falling 36.5% against the yen and 30.8% to 36.6% against other major currencies over 17 months [5][10]. - Despite the dollar's decline, U.S. import prices did not rise significantly due to exporters' strategies to maintain market share, coupled with falling international oil prices that helped control inflation [11][12]. Group 3: Market Confidence and Leadership - Market confidence during the 1985-1987 period was largely attributed to then-Fed Chairman Paul Volcker's reputation for controlling inflation, which reassured investors [6][13]. - The transition to Alan Greenspan as Fed Chairman in 1987 led to a lack of decisive action when the dollar fell below critical levels, contributing to market instability and the eventual crash [16][17]. Group 4: Implications for Current Markets - The article suggests that if Volcker had remained in charge, the "Black Monday" crash might have been avoided due to his proactive approach to monetary policy [18]. - The analysis emphasizes the importance of the Fed Chairman's credibility and the market's trust in the central bank's commitment to controlling inflation, indicating that even minor policy missteps can lead to significant market turmoil [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View of the Report - The major indices of the two markets had a strong consolidation on Tuesday to repair technical indicators, and the trading volume remained high. Hedge funds' net buying of Chinese stocks last week reached the highest level in seven weeks, making China the market with the largest capital inflow on the platform since August. The year 2025 has seen a "quantitative boom" in the quantitative circle. Continuous capital inflows will drive the stock market to maintain an upward trend [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Tuesday, the major indices of the two markets had a strong consolidation, showing mixed trends to repair technical indicators. The trading volume was 2.58 trillion yuan, still relatively high. The CSI 1000 Index closed at 7,242 points, up 5 points or 0.07%; the CSI 500 Index closed at 6,655 points, down 12 points or -0.19%; the SSE 300 Index closed at 4,223 points, down 16 points or -0.38%; the SSE 50 Index closed at 2,812 points, down 26 points or -0.93%. Among industry and theme ETFs, those with the highest gains were Communication ETF, Gem Artificial Intelligence ETF Cathay, 5G ETF, Cloud 50 ETF, and Robot 50 ETF, while those with the highest losses were Tianhong Innovative Drug ETF, Leading Military Industry ETF, and Southern Securities ETF. Among the sector indices of the two markets, those with the highest gains were consumer electronics, home appliance parts, communication equipment, motor manufacturing, and industrial Internet index, while those with the highest losses were medical services, glass fiber, insurance, aviation equipment, and securities index. The settlement funds of stock index futures for the CSI 1000, SSE 300, CSI 500, and SSE 50 indices had net outflows of 5.5 billion, 5.1 billion, 1.8 billion, and 0.9 billion yuan respectively [1]. Important Information - The State Council meeting emphasized continuously stimulating consumption potential, systematically clearing restrictive measures in the consumption field, and accelerating the cultivation and expansion of new growth points such as service consumption and new - type consumption. It also aimed to increase effective investment, give play to the leading and driving role of major projects, and actively promote private investment [1]. - Data from Goldman Sachs' Prime Brokerage (GS PB) showed that hedge funds' net buying of Chinese stocks last week reached the highest level in seven weeks, making China the market with the largest capital inflow on the platform since August [1]. - In just eight months of 2025, the quantitative circle has witnessed a "quantitative boom" comparable to 2019 and even surpassing 2020. Many quantitative institutions have quietly enjoyed a "silent bull market" with substantial floating profits [1]. - According to data compiled by Zishitang, among 53 quantitative private equity funds' CSI 500 enhanced products (with institutional scale all above 1 billion yuan, including 26 "10 - billion - scale giants"), the average return in 2025 was about 28.4%, while the CSI 500 Index only rose 10.4% during the same period [1]. - Zhaopin data showed that in the second quarter, the number of recruitment positions in the humanoid robot field increased by 398.1% year - on - year, far leading the growth rate. Technical talents proficient in algorithms and mechanical structure design have become highly sought - after in the job market [1]. - Apollo's chief economist said that consumer spending usually accounts for 70% of the US GDP, and private consumption is usually the main driving force for US GDP growth. However, in the first half of the year, the contribution of data center investment to US GDP growth was the same as that of consumer spending. The contribution of consumer spending has been declining, while that of data center construction has been rising [1]. - The drag effect of US trade tariffs is becoming increasingly apparent in Europe. In June, the exports of the 27 EU countries to the US decreased by 10% year - on - year to just over 40 billion euros (about 46.8 billion US dollars), the lowest level in two years [2]. - JPMorgan Chase said that multiple alternative inflation indicators showed that inflation not only failed to continue to decline, but the sticky part of core inflation was accelerating again, and a considerable part of its persistence was not related to tariffs. Unless the economy falls into recession, the persistent inflation will not support the Fed to take more aggressive easing policies [2]. - Goldman Sachs said that among the S&P 500 component stocks that have announced their earnings reports, 60% of the companies' earnings per share exceeded expectations by more than one standard deviation, mainly due to companies' multiple strategies such as supplier negotiations, supply chain adjustments, cost cuts, and passing on price increases to consumers, and the weakening of the US dollar provided additional impetus for corporate sales growth [2]. Market Logic - The major indices of the two markets had a strong consolidation on Tuesday to repair technical indicators. Hedge funds' net buying of Chinese stocks last week reached the highest level in seven weeks, making China the market with the largest capital inflow on the platform since August. The Shanghai Composite Index hit a nearly 10 - year high on Monday, and the total A - share market capitalization of A - share companies exceeded 100 trillion yuan, a record high. The year 2025 has seen a "quantitative boom" in the quantitative circle, and many quantitative institutions have enjoyed a "silent bull market" with floating profits [2]. Future Market Outlook - The major indices of the two markets had a strong consolidation on Tuesday to repair technical indicators, and the trading volume remained high. The State Council meeting emphasized measures to stimulate consumption and investment. Hedge funds' net buying of Chinese stocks reached a seven - week high. Goldman Sachs believes that the Chinese humanoid robot industry is iterating products at an amazing speed with a clearer commercialization path. The Fed may use currency depreciation to deal with debt, and the probability of a September interest rate cut by the Fed has risen to 100%. The "de - Americanization" of global financial asset reallocation is expected to accelerate the inflow of international funds into A - shares. The strong consolidation of major indices after continuous rises is a normal technical trend, and continuous capital inflows will drive the stock market to maintain an upward trend [2]. Trading Strategy - Stock index futures directional trading: The strong consolidation of major indices after continuous rises is a normal technical trend, and continuous capital inflows will drive the stock market to maintain an upward trend [2]. - Stock index options trading: With continuous capital inflows, investors can choose to buy out - of - the - money long - term call options on growth - type stock indices [2].

Group 1: Gold Price Forecast - UBS has raised its gold price target by $100 to $3,600 per ounce by the end of March 2026, and by $200 to $3,700 per ounce by the end of June 2026, maintaining the same forecast for September 2026 [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Expectations - Russell Investments suggests that the upcoming Jackson Hole meeting may temper expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, with a possibility of a 25 basis point cut in September rather than 50 basis points [1] - CICC indicates that the Federal Reserve will remain cautious in its rate cut decisions, with internal divisions and external pressures suggesting that significant cuts are unlikely due to concerns over "stagflation" [4] Group 3: Impact of Tariffs on Inflation and Currency - Deutsche Bank warns that U.S. tariffs may increase inflation and weaken the dollar, as companies might pass on tariff costs to consumers, potentially leading to reduced consumer spending [2] - Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce reports that U.S. tariffs on European and UK goods have caused government bond yield curves to steepen, as investors demand higher compensation for holding long-term bonds [1] Group 4: Economic Growth Risks - Fitch Ratings states that higher U.S. tariffs could threaten India's projected economic growth of 6.5% for the fiscal year, particularly affecting sectors like IT services and construction if tariffs remain elevated [3] - CICC notes that the overall valuation of A-shares is reasonable and not overvalued, with the Shanghai Composite Index's dynamic P/E ratio at around 12.2 times, indicating a moderate valuation compared to global markets [6] Group 5: Financial Market Trends - CITIC Securities reports a significant increase in bank wealth management products, with a growth of approximately 2 trillion yuan to 32.67 trillion yuan by the end of July 2025, driven by high-interest deposits maturing [8] - CITIC Securities also highlights that the price of rare earths is expected to stabilize and potentially increase, supported by strong demand from sectors like electric vehicles and consumer electronics [9]

Market Trends & Exchange Rate Dynamics - The possibility exists for the RMB to appreciate further against the USD, potentially breaking through the 7 level [1] - Scenarios driving RMB appreciation include a weakening US economy, Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and a general decline in market confidence in the USD [1] - A potential improvement in US-China trade relations, such as a second-phase trade agreement, could also boost market confidence and push the RMB higher [1] - The multi-lateral exchange rate trend of the RMB is a result, not a target [1] Policy & Stance - China is not deliberately devaluing its exchange rate to support exports [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant reduction in the defensive hedging strategies of global investors against the risk of US dollar depreciation, returning to levels close to those before the tariff shocks in early April [1][2] - The hedge ratio, a key indicator of market hedging intensity, has decreased to 21.6%, down approximately 2 percentage points from May, reflecting a phase of retreat from the previous hedging surge triggered by tariff policies [1][2] - Despite ongoing structural pressures on the dollar, the current hedge ratio has not reached a threshold that would trigger large-scale hedging actions, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [1][2] Group 2 - The unexpected cooling of hedging demand challenges the traditional perception of the dollar as a safe-haven asset, as both US stocks and the dollar experienced a rare simultaneous decline in April [2] - Institutional investors are now more inclined to base their currency hedging strategies on long-term data rather than short-term fluctuations, which has contributed to the current low levels of hedging activity [2] - The recent strong performance of the dollar, coupled with a significant rebound in the US stock market, has further diminished the immediate motivation for investors to hedge [2] Group 3 - High hedging costs have become a limiting factor, with the three-month dollar hedging cost for Eurozone investors rising from a low of 1.31% last September to over 2.4% between June and July, currently remaining above 2.20% [3] - Despite the dollar's recent strength, Wall Street forex strategists maintain a bearish long-term outlook for the dollar, citing concerns over the sustainability of its current rebound [3] - Historical precedents suggest that a decline in the dollar often begins before the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, indicating a potential for further depreciation in the future [3]

Core Viewpoint - Current data indicates that the impact of tariffs on U.S. inflation remains relatively mild, with core CPI in May-June 2025 falling short of expectations, showing a month-on-month increase of only 0.1-0.2% [1] Group 1: Tariff Impact on Inflation - The limited impact of tariffs on inflation is attributed to several factors: significant inventory accumulation by companies, a temporary buffer against rising tariffs, a weighted import tariff rate lower than theoretical values, weak corporate demand, and low service inflation [1] - It is expected that tariffs will moderately increase U.S. core inflation in the third quarter, although there is market disagreement regarding the magnitude and duration of this inflation rise [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve is likely to restart the interest rate cut cycle in September, despite anticipated inflation recovery in the third quarter having limited constraints on the Fed's rate cuts in 2025 [1] - Short-term inflation recovery is expected to have a limited impact on U.S. Treasury yields, although the implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" Act may still exert pressure on these yields [1] Group 3: Broader Economic Considerations - Attention should be paid to potential buffers created by financial deregulation, expansion of stablecoins, and changes in U.S. Treasury issuance structure, which may influence the economic landscape [1] - The long-term outlook suggests that the U.S. dollar may face depreciation pressure [1]