Core Viewpoint - The spring market is reaching its peak, with investors optimistic about the strategy to expand domestic demand and the expectation of a strong start to the year [1] Market Performance - This week, the stock market saw a significant increase in trading volume, indicating that new capital is entering the market [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rebounded significantly, reaching a new high for this round of market activity, while the Shenzhen Component Index experienced an even larger rebound, also hitting a new high for the year [1] - The average daily trading volume for both markets exceeded 28 trillion yuan this week, a substantial increase compared to the previous week [1] Sector Highlights - Market hotspots this week were primarily concentrated in the military and TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sectors [1] - The ratio of the CSI 2000 to the CSI 300 (after normalization) was 1.42, continuing to rise since the end of 2025 [1] - Small-cap and technology stocks led the gains throughout the week [1] Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index completed a small double bottom pattern and is currently challenging higher target levels [1] - The index experienced downward adjustments in late November and mid-December 2025, with the rebound process now underway, having surpassed the target level of the small double bottom pattern [1] - Future attention should be paid to the volume-price relationship, similar to the double bottom pattern [1]

Market Overview - In December 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index experienced a rebound, closing at 3968.84 points, up 2.06% from the end of November 2025. The average daily trading volume decreased by 4.1% to 774.1 billion yuan [5][6]. - The CSI 300 Index also rebounded in December, closing at 4629.94 points, with a 2.28% increase. The average daily trading volume fell by 8% to 426.5 billion yuan [5][6]. January Market Analysis and Outlook Fundamental Drivers - The PMI index returned to the expansion zone in December 2025, with a manufacturing PMI of 50.1%, indicating a marginal improvement in the economic fundamentals after nine months [7]. Equity Risk Premium - The equity risk premium for the CSI 300 Index fell to 5.57 at the end of December, ending a two-month upward trend. This suggests potential for further decline in risk premium, contingent on clear signals of fundamental improvement [9]. Market Profitability - The number of stocks with gains exceeding 20% increased to 357 in December, a 64% rise from the previous month, indicating a resurgence in market profitability [11]. Volume-Price Relationship - The relationship between volume and price remains crucial for sustaining upward trends, as both experienced a rebound in December despite lower trading volumes [13]. Average Transaction Price - The average transaction price on the Shanghai Stock Exchange reached a new high of 16.58 yuan per share, influenced by the listing of high-priced new stocks [15]. Major Market Index Predictions Shanghai Composite Index - The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to continue its rebound, fluctuating around the 60-day moving average, with significant support established at previous market highs [17]. CSI 300 Index - The CSI 300 Index is also anticipated to challenge previous highs, with resistance levels identified at the range of the second half of 2021 [19].

Market Overview - A-shares opened mixed with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.35%, Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.47%, and the ChiNext Index down by 0.13% [1] - Sectors such as commercial aerospace, AI applications, and precious metals saw significant gains, while sectors like aquaculture, copper foil/copper clad laminate, and oil & petrochemicals experienced declines [1] Institutional Insights - CITIC Securities suggests that the current market is characterized by a rotation of themes and small-cap stocks, with a lack of individual stock pricing power [2] - The market is expected to remain in a configuration and quantitative funding-rich environment, with a need for clearer fundamental signals to drive a one-sided trend [2] - The consensus is that significant policy changes are unlikely, but the complexity of the external trade environment may necessitate adjustments in domestic demand policies [2] - The critical window for structural adjustment decisions is anticipated between late March and April [2] AI Industry Developments - CITIC Jiantou highlights that the commercialization process of AI companies is expected to accelerate, driven by recent financing activities and policy support in China [3] - The launch of new AI models and applications is anticipated to spark a new wave of interest in AI, particularly in areas such as search & marketing, coding, multi-modal applications, agents, and AI for science [3] Spring Market Outlook - Huatai Securities notes that the spring market may still have room for growth, driven by increased risk appetite and a continuation of the spring rally [4] - The trading structure is becoming more concentrated, suggesting that some hot sectors may need to alleviate pressure from overcrowding [4] - Recommendations include focusing on high-cost performance sectors, particularly those benefiting from improvements in external demand, such as gaming, duty-free, batteries, engineering machinery, and agricultural chemicals [4]

股指期货周报：春季行情确立 研究员：孙锋 期货从业证号：F0211891 投资咨询证号：Z0000567 目录 第一部分 周度核心要点分析及策略推荐 2 第二部分 周度数据追踪 5 GALAXY FUTURES 1 一周要闻 GALAXY FUTURES 2 国常会：部署实施财政金融协同促内需一揽子政策。 人民日报钟才平：统筹促消费和扩投资，建设强大国内市场。 财政部、税务总局发布公告，自2026年4月1日起，取消光伏等产品增值税出口退税。自2026年4月1日起至2026 年12月31日，将电池产品的增值税出口退税率由9%下调至6%；2027年1月1日起，取消电池产品增值税出口退 税。 2025年12月份，居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨0.8%，回升至2023年3月份以来最高，扣除 食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%。工业生产者出厂价格指数（PPI）环比上涨0.2%，同比下降1.9%。 12月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为50.1%，比上月上升0.9个百分点，升至扩张区间。 2025年12月，美国非农就业人数喜忧参半，增加5万人，预期7万人；失业率降至4.4%。数据公布后，美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten-year high of 4100 points as of January 9, 2026, indicating a potential "spring market" phase for investors [4][9]. Group 1: Dividend ETFs Performance - The latest dividend yield for the S&P A-share Dividend ETF is 4.76% [1]. - The S&P A-share Dividend ETF has shown a one-year return of 20.6% and a year-to-date return of 10.77% [1]. - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Low Volatility Dividend ETF has a one-year return of 11.76% and a recent return of 25.3% over the last month [2][7]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to adopt a "barbell strategy," combining high-dividend and quality cash flow assets to stabilize during market corrections while also investing in high-growth assets aligned with industry trends and policy directions [4][9]. - The A500 Low Volatility Dividend ETF has shown a one-year return of 5.05% and a recent return of 0.21% over the last week [2][7]. Group 3: Cash Flow ETFs - The 300 Cash Flow ETF, which excludes financials and real estate, has a one-year return of 14.29% [3][8]. - The performance of the 300 Cash Flow ETF indicates a strong position in large-cap blue-chip stocks, reflecting its strategy of tracking the CSI 300 Free Cash Flow Index [3][8].

Group 1 - The core of the recent A-share market rally is driven by a combination of policy expectations, industry trends, capital flow, and market sentiment, indicating a multi-dimensional resonance [2][3] - The influx of capital is evident, with significant net inflows from northbound funds and daily trading volumes increasing from 1.7 trillion yuan to over 3 trillion yuan, creating a positive feedback loop in the market [2][3] - Institutional investors are adopting a dual strategy of offensive and defensive positions, focusing on sectors like AI and cyclical industries while also ensuring safety margins in their portfolios [5][6][7] Group 2 - The market outlook remains optimistic as institutions expect the spring rally to continue, with a focus on high-growth areas such as AI applications, commercial aerospace, and innovative pharmaceuticals [8][9] - Personal investors are advised to rely on professional management, focus on long-term trends, and utilize standardized investment tools like ETFs to mitigate selection difficulties [9][10] - The current market environment emphasizes the importance of maintaining investment discipline and avoiding emotional trading, with a call for investors to set clear profit and loss thresholds [9][10][11]

Group 1: Capital Market Developments - The 30th China Capital Market Forum highlighted the importance of the 14th Five-Year Plan for advancing China's modernization and building a strong financial nation, with a focus on risk prevention, strong regulation, and high-quality development [1] - As of January 11, 2026, 108 A-share companies disclosed their 2025 earnings forecasts, with 60 companies showing positive expectations, resulting in a positive growth trend overall [1] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced that A-share companies are expected to distribute a record cash dividend of 2.55 trillion yuan in 2025, reflecting improved profitability and cash flow [2] Group 2: Pharmaceutical Innovations - Zai Lab announced the approval of its innovative product, a human thyroid-stimulating hormone beta injection, marking a significant milestone in China's domestic innovative drug development [3] - The National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) plans to enhance support for innovative drugs, focusing on new mechanisms and targets to facilitate their approval and market entry [3] Group 3: Stock Market Performance - The A-share market has seen a significant upward trend since December 17, 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index surpassing 4100 points, the highest since July 2015 [4] - The market's strong performance is attributed to multiple factors, including policy support, capital influx, and industry trends, with a notable increase in trading volume [5] - Public funds have seen substantial inflows, with over 450 billion yuan entering the market since the beginning of 2026, indicating a shift in investment strategies [6] Group 4: Foreign Investment Trends - There is a growing enthusiasm among global investors for Chinese assets, driven by stable fundamentals, attractive valuations, and ongoing market liberalization [8] - Foreign capital is increasingly focusing on companies with strong R&D capabilities and global presence, particularly in the technology sector [8] Group 5: ETF Market Dynamics - The theme-based ETFs have gained significant traction, with a net inflow of 9.519 billion yuan and an average net value growth rate of 6.6% since the start of 2026 [9] - The public fund industry is moving towards differentiated product offerings, aiming to provide investors with more precise asset allocation tools [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the A-share market continues to rise with increased trading volume, driven by heightened risk appetite and the ongoing spring rally [1] - The strong momentum effect suggests that there may still be room for the spring market to grow, but the trading structure is becoming concentrated, indicating a potential shift towards rotation in the market [1] - As the earnings forecast window approaches, it is recommended to focus on high cost-performance sectors, particularly those benefiting from improvements in external demand and themes with relatively low crowding [1] Group 2 - Specific industries to watch include gaming, duty-free, batteries, construction machinery, and agrochemicals [1] - The mid-term allocation strategy remains unchanged, with a focus on accumulating upstream resource stocks in the power chain during dips [1]

人民财讯1月12日电，华泰证券指出，上周，A股延续放量上涨，突破前高，风险偏好提升驱动的春季 躁动继续演绎。展望看，华泰证券认为，强动量效应下，春季行情或仍有空间，但从行业涨跌幅标准 差、成交额占比以及杠杆资金和ETF的动向看，交易结构较为集中，部分热点板块或需消化拥挤度压 力，行情转向轮动的概率逐步上升。业绩预告窗口期将至，建议结合基本面预期，寻找高性价比方向， 聚焦外需链景气改善品种以及后续有催化且拥挤度相对低的主题，具体到行业层面，建议关注游戏、免 税、电池、工程机械、农化。中期配置思路不变，电力链上游资源品逢低吸筹。 ...

Group 1 - The current A-share market ecosystem is undergoing systematic restructuring, with a solid foundation for a "long bull, slow bull" market being established. The strategic position of the capital market has significantly improved, and the institutional framework is becoming more refined, providing a solid guarantee for stable market operations [5][14] - The "New Nine Articles" are promoting a transformation of the market from being financing-led to a balanced focus on both financing and investment, leading to continuous improvements in the quality of listed companies and investor protection [5] - The profitability of core assets is showing signs of a turning point, with both technology and traditional sectors presenting structural opportunities, and the matching of valuation and profitability is improving [5] Group 2 - The spring market is expected to gradually unfold, supported by factors that have driven previous market activity, including liquidity factors such as margin trading and insurance capital, which are anticipated to continue into January [6] - The macroeconomic environment, including the previous appreciation of the RMB, is creating a favorable atmosphere for liquidity and risk appetite, with potential catalysts such as policy adjustments and improvements in fundamental data expected in January [6] - After a two-month earnings window, listed companies will once again face fundamental verification as they enter the earnings forecast disclosure window in January [6] Group 3 - A-share market is expected to maintain an upward trend, with structural inflows of incremental funds anticipated in January, supported by the appreciation of the RMB and foreign capital positioning at the year-end [7] - Market sentiment appears slightly subdued, with industry preferences concentrated in sectors such as non-ferrous metals and defense, suggesting that investors should focus on large-cap styles and policy-related industry opportunities [7] Group 4 - The commercial aerospace industry is expected to enter a period of explosive growth, with the current phase being the initial stage of large-scale infrastructure development, accelerating towards commercial applications [13] - The "Space Power" goal is clearly defined, with national strategic support guiding the industry, and the low-orbit satellite internet constellation is set to begin high-density networking by 2025, marking a critical window for large-scale networking from 2025 to 2027 [13] Group 5 - A weak dollar cycle is expected to boost the performance of A/H shares, as it drives domestic exports and improves corporate profits, with global liquidity easing valuations and funds favoring high-growth emerging markets [14] - Structural improvements in sectors such as technology and domestic demand are anticipated to benefit from corporate profit recovery, leading to a rebound in these areas [14]