交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年12月16日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 1、基本面：非农数据前夕，银价反弹；美国三大股指小幅收跌，欧洲三大股指收 盘全线上涨；美债收益率涨跌不一，10年期美债收益率跌0.78个基点报4.174%；美 元指数跌0.12%报98.28，离岸人民币对美元升值报7.0434；COMEX白银期货涨3.42% 报64.13美元/盎司；中性 6、预期：市场等待非农数据，或影响美联储1月是否降息，美联储主席候选人或有 变动，银价反弹。沪银溢价收敛至300元/克，沪银情绪降温。高位银价将继续震 荡，关注今日非农数据。 2、基差：白银期货14795，现货14884，基差 ...

Well, in contrast to the gold market, the silver market is obviously much smaller. Um, but silver has also had an extraordinary run, pushing through $60 an ounce for the first time uh last week. A historic rally.Right now, it's trading around 63 $64. Um, what do you what is your take on what's driven silver higher. >> Yeah, in terms of traded value, it's about 15% of the size or the value of of the gold market.you're on a sort of weekly trade, but it's it's it's actually grown into a very very significant i ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Core Viewpoints - The precious metal market is generally strong, with the London gold price rising continuously and the decline of the London silver price significantly narrowing. After the Fed's interest rate cut was fulfilled as expected, silver reached multiple historical highs and then had a short - term correction due to the squeeze caused by the continuous shortage of global physical silver inventory and the boost of the Fed's interest rate cut expectations. The Fed has internal differences on whether to worry more about inflation or the employment market, and FOMC officials currently do not show a high willingness to continue cutting interest rates. In the short term, considering that the market has fully priced in the Fed's interest rate cut, the recent pulsed upward movement of silver may increase the short - term correction risk, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to stabilize and rebound in the short term. The London gold is expected to have an upper resistance level of $4350 per ounce and a lower support level of $4250 per ounce; the London silver is expected to have an upper resistance level of $64.5 per ounce and a lower support level of $59 per ounce [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract is 970.66 yuan/gram, up 12.5 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract is 14793 yuan/kilogram, down 99 yuan. The main contract positions of Shanghai gold are 203,038 hands, down 836 hands; the main contract positions of Shanghai silver are 7,206 hands, down 196 hands. The main contract trading volume of Shanghai gold is 439,719 hands, up 147,983 hands; the main contract trading volume of Shanghai silver is 2,357,087 hands, up 630,503 hands. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai gold is 91,302 kilograms, unchanged; the warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai silver is 820,921 kilograms, up 36,893 kilograms [2] Spot Market - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 0 yuan, unchanged; the spot price of Huatong No.1 silver is 14,638 yuan, down 83 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract is - 970.66 yuan/gram, down 964.25 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract is - 155 yuan/gram, up 16 yuan [2] Supply and Demand Situation - The SPDR gold ETF holdings are 1053.12 tons, up 2.29 tons; the SLV silver ETF holdings are 16,102.90 tons, up 19.74 tons. The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC are 210,339 contracts, up 3,270 contracts; the non - commercial net positions of silver in CFTC are 34,016 contracts, up 1,030 contracts. The total quarterly supply of gold is 1313.07 tons, up 86.24 tons; the total annual supply of silver is 32,056 tons, up 482 tons. The total quarterly demand for gold is 1257.90 tons, up 174.15 tons; the total annual demand for silver is 35,716 tons, down 491 tons [2] Macro Data - The US dollar index is 98.40, up 0.04; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 1.93, up 0.04. The VIX volatility index is 15.74, up 0.89; the CBOE gold volatility index is 21.46, up 0.49. The ratio of the S&P 500 to the gold price is 1.57, down 0.06; the gold - silver ratio is 67.38, down 0.72 [2] Industry News - Multiple Fed officials spoke. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said inflation is no longer the biggest enemy, and the downside risk of employment is more worthy of concern. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said he voted against the interest rate cut on Wednesday to wait for more data and expects more interest rate cuts next year than the median forecast. Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester both said they hope the policy remains moderately restrictive. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January next year is 24.4%, and the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 75.6%. By March next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point interest rate cut is 41.9%, the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 49.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point interest rate cut is 8.3%. The Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda and other senior officials have repeatedly signaled support for an interest rate hike. Although there is no clear opposition within the policy committee, the central bank said it will comprehensively evaluate potential market risks such as sharp stock market fluctuations and a sharp appreciation of the yen before making a final decision. If this interest rate hike is implemented, it will be the Bank of Japan's second increase in the policy rate since January 2025, after an 11 - month interval [2] Key Points to Watch - December 15, 21:30, US December New York Fed Manufacturing Index; December 15, 23:00, US December NAHB Housing Market Index; December 16, 21:30, US November Non - farm Payrolls Report [2]

"此外，白银现货的紧张也导致期现结构的变化。"顾佳男表示，10月前后，伦敦现货白银较期货一度出 现高升水，显示现货极端紧张。 12月10日，COMEX白银期货和沪银均创历史新高！COMEX白银期货价格最高突破62美元／盎司；截 至当日收盘，沪银期货主力合约报收于14373元／千克，涨幅达5.44%。 随着贵金属价格的上涨，港股市场上相关个股多数走强。截至发稿，灵宝黄金涨9.36%、中国白银集团 涨7.46%、珠峰黄金涨3.78%、赤峰黄金涨1.32%。 海通期货研究所总经理助理顾佳男表示，近日白银价格在黄金高位盘整的状态下大幅飙升，金银比已降 至70附近，接近2023年的低点，但当前全球经济增长势头远不及2022—2023年，仅用经济增长这一因素 无法完全解释金银比的下降。 "白银价格大幅上涨的主要原因是需求端的结构性变化。"顾佳男分析称，今年以来，白银需求端出现了 两个极为重要的变化。一是美国年初加征关税，并把白银列入关键矿物，导致很多贸易商从年初开始大 幅从海外进口白银至美国。白银隐含租赁利率在10月一度飙升超过35%，尽管近期仍维持在6%左右， 但已远超短期融资成本，这表明现货市场出借意愿极低，库存紧张 ...

早上好，先来关注下地缘局势和特朗普的最新表态。 泰国军队称空袭柬埔寨两处军事目标 据央视新闻消息，泰国陆军第一军区13日在社交媒体发文说，当地时间13日16时09分，该军区陆军部队 联合空军对柬方两处军事目标实施空袭，成功摧毁一处弹药库和一处防空通信系统。 泰国海军发言人13日表示，海军舰队于当天凌晨在泰国湾开展军事行动，旨在削弱并遏制柬方在戈公省 一带的军事能力，保障泰国湾沿岸民众的生命与财产安全。 另据泰国国防部发言人及卫生部官员13日在有关泰柬边境局势的新闻发布会上通报，此轮泰柬冲突已造 成15名泰国士兵死亡、超过270名士兵受伤。截至当天上午，7名平民死亡，民众转移超26万人。 此外，当地时间12月13日下午，泰国总理阿努廷回应了马来西亚总理安瓦尔关于13日22时泰柬边境停火 的说法。 阿努廷表示，目前尚未收到相关消息，现在各种信息传播很多，建议以泰国军方发布的正式声明为准。 阿努廷还表示，目前尚未开始任何停火谈判，也还未到那个阶段。 此前，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体平台"真实社交"上表示，他当天早上分别与泰国总理阿努廷和柬埔寨 首相洪玛奈通话，讨论两国边境冲突的最新情况。特朗普称，两国领导人已同意从当 ...

Group 1 - The global central banks have slowed down their gold purchases, leading to a loss of upward momentum in the gold market [1] - In December, the price of gold in the Shanghai Gold Exchange dropped to 950 yuan per gram, while retail prices from various jewelers ranged from 1232 to 1328 yuan per gram [1] - The silver market has seen a surprising increase, with silver contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rising over 10% this month, causing some funds to shift from silver to gold options [1] Group 2 - The gold and platinum prices at various stores, such as Baoqing Silver Building and Sun Gold Store, are relatively low, with gold priced at 1146 to 1258 yuan per gram [2] - The gold futures main contract fluctuated around 958 yuan per gram, showing a typical bullish flag pattern, indicating increased buying interest in gold bars [4] - Analysts noted that the gold-silver ratio has dropped below 70:1, historically leading to a 12% increase in gold prices over the following 40 days [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in silver prices is driven by a combination of financial and industrial factors, with significant implications for investors and market dynamics [5][12]. Group 1: Price Movements and Market Reactions - A Shanghai investor purchased 20 kilograms of physical silver at approximately 11 yuan per gram, and with current prices exceeding 13 yuan per gram, the investor has realized a paper profit of 60,000 yuan [1]. - Silver prices reached a historic high of 60.83 USD per ounce in early December, with a year-to-date increase of over 110%, while gold's increase was around 60% [3]. - In Shenzhen, the demand for silver bars and silver products has surged, with some merchants selling dozens of kilograms of silver this month [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current surge in silver prices is attributed to both financial attributes, influenced by U.S. Federal Reserve policy expectations, and industrial demand, particularly from the photovoltaic sector [5][11]. - The London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) reported a significant decline in silver inventories, with a drop of 300 tons in October alone, leading to the lowest levels since 2016 [7]. - The World Silver Association anticipates a continued annual deficit in the silver market through 2025 due to constrained supply and rising demand [7]. Group 3: Investment Considerations - Analysts suggest that the current market dynamics create a high volatility environment for silver, with ETF holdings and speculative positions at elevated levels [9][12]. - Investment in silver is seen as a dual-attribute asset, combining financial and industrial characteristics, which has attracted investors seeking alternatives amid limited returns from other investment channels [11][12]. - UBS has raised its silver price target for 2026 to between 58 and 60 USD per ounce, with potential for prices to reach 65 USD per ounce [14].

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surged for the fourth consecutive day, driven by ETF inflows, momentum trading strategies, and tight physical market conditions, positioning silver for its best year since 1979 [2][4]. Group 1: Price Movement and Market Dynamics - Silver prices reached a historical high above $64, with a weekly increase of approximately 10%, influenced by dovish signals from the Federal Reserve [2]. - The recent price surge occurred after a significant short squeeze in the London silver market, where ETF inflows and exports to India depleted already low inventories [4]. - The gold-silver ratio fell to its lowest level since 2021, approximately 1:67, indicating a relative cheapness of silver [4]. Group 2: Speculative Activity and Options Market - There is a notable increase in bullish options buying, with total open interest in call options for the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) reaching its highest level since 2020 [5]. - The cost of purchasing call options has surged to multi-year highs compared to put options, indicating strong speculative interest [5]. - A significant number of call options with a strike price of $57 are set to expire, potentially prompting traders to buy stocks to rebalance their positions [5]. Group 3: Industrial Demand and Future Outlook - The Silver Institute reported an expected surge in industrial applications, particularly in solar photovoltaics and electric vehicles, which may drive future demand [6]. - The sharp rise in silver prices could potentially weaken industrial demand, as silver now constitutes about one-quarter of the cost structure in photovoltaics [6]. - Year-to-date, silver prices have increased by 120%, outpacing gold's 65% rise, with ETFs adding 35 million ounces of silver holdings in the past month [7].

Group 1 - Silver futures reached a historic peak of $63.25 per ounce on December 11, with a year-to-date increase of 112%, significantly outperforming gold and platinum [1][3] - The surge in silver prices is driven by a combination of Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and a structural supply-demand imbalance, with a projected shortfall of over 6,000 tons by 2025 [3][5] - The photovoltaic industry is the largest driver of silver demand, with usage expected to double by 2025, accounting for 55% of total demand [5] Group 2 - The current silver market dynamics are influenced by a split in the Federal Reserve's policy, with differing opinions on interest rate adjustments among officials [7] - The iShares Silver Trust ETF saw a significant inflow of $1 billion in a week, indicating strong investor confidence in the long-term trend [7] - The gold-silver ratio has dropped to 68.22, suggesting potential for silver price recovery [9] Group 3 - Investment strategies for silver include ETFs for beginners, futures for experienced traders, and mining stocks for long-term investors [10][11] - Risks include technological disruptions in the photovoltaic sector and potential policy shifts from the Federal Reserve that could impact silver prices [13] - Opportunities lie in the potential recovery of the gold-silver ratio and increasing demand from green energy sectors [14] Group 4 - The current silver price surge reflects a broader restructuring of the global credit system and the impact of the energy transition [20] - The market is divided on whether silver is experiencing a bubble or a legitimate revaluation, with concerns about ETF holdings exceeding physical inventory [18]

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have reached a historic high of over $64 per ounce, attracting significant attention from investors, with analysts suggesting that this "poor man's gold" still has substantial upside potential [1][2]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Michele Schneider, Chief Market Strategist at MarketGauge, has re-entered the silver market with an entry price of approximately $48 per ounce after previously liquidating her positions [1]. - The recent surge in silver prices has prompted Schneider to raise her stop-loss levels, indicating a bullish sentiment towards the metal [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Schneider emphasizes that the current silver price has not yet reached its appropriate high, citing a significant supply gap as a major concern, with demand expected to continue growing while supply remains extremely limited [2]. - The electrification of the global economy is driving silver's importance as a key industrial metal, with technology companies projected to invest $700 billion in expanding AI infrastructure, which may be hindered by insufficient silver supply [2]. Group 3: Investment Outlook - Schneider views silver as a value investment within the precious metals market, noting that despite prices exceeding $64 per ounce, it remains undervalued compared to gold [2]. - Historical gold-silver ratios suggest that silver has considerable room for price appreciation, with Schneider predicting that the gold-silver ratio could drop to around 40, indicating a potential significant rise in silver prices [2]. Group 4: Economic Influences - The recent 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 3.50%-3.75%, is expected to support continued strong retail investment demand for silver [3]. - Schneider anticipates a shift towards more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, which, combined with rising inflation and declining real yields, could exert pressure on the dollar and bolster hard assets like silver and gold [3].