盘前要闻 1、八部门：到2027年中国人工智能关键核心技术实现安全可靠供给 类型：行业 情绪影响：正面 工信部等八部门印发《"人工智能+制造"专项行动实施意见》，意见指出，到2027年，我国人工智能关 键核心技术实现安全可靠供给。意见还指出，推动智能芯片软硬协同发展，支持突破高端训练芯片、人 工智能服务器、智算云操作系统等关键核心技术。 2、锂电"反内卷"力度升级：多部门联合召开动力储能电池行业座谈会 类型：行业 情绪影响：正面 1月7日，多部门联合召开动力和储能电池行业座谈会，研究部署规范产业竞争秩序相关工作。有知情人 士透露，参会企业包括国内Top10的动力电池企业、几家头部储能电池企业和集成商等，共计10余家。 有参会人士透露，此次会议总体围绕行业"反内卷"工作，包括要求企业实现控产能、管价格战、保护专 利等内容。 3、央行今日开展1.1万亿买断式逆回购操作，专家称月内将继续注入流动性 类型：宏观 情绪影响：正面 机构观点 央行1月8日将开展11000亿元买断式逆回购操作，期限为3个月。考虑到今日有11000亿买断式逆回购到 期，本次操作为等量续作。专家预计央行将于1月15日左右开展6个月期买断式逆回购 ...

Group 1 - The central bank has increased its gold reserves to 74.15 million ounces as of December 2025, marking a continuous increase for 14 months since November 2024 [1][2] - The increase in gold holdings is attributed to changes in the global political and economic landscape, leading to a potential long-term rise in international gold prices [1][3] - The World Gold Council forecasts a 15% to 30% increase in gold prices in 2026, driven by investment demand, particularly through gold ETFs, despite weak demand from jewelry and technology sectors [3][8] Group 2 - In 2025, gold prices surged from $1,826 per ounce to around $4,460, with a peak of $4,550, resulting in a more than 60% increase, the highest annual gain in 46 years [3][6] - Analysts predict that the structural bull market for gold remains solid, with potential price fluctuations due to technical factors, but long-term value is expected to rise amid global economic uncertainties [6][7] - Major investment banks, including Bank of America and Goldman Sachs, project gold prices to reach between $4,900 and $5,000 per ounce in 2026, emphasizing the importance of gold as a hedge in investment portfolios [7][8]

Core Insights - Despite gold reaching historical highs in 2025, both institutional and retail investors in the U.S. show surprising indifference towards precious metal holdings, indicating a significant structural opportunity for price increases [1][3] - Current holdings are far from saturation, suggesting a "configuration gap" that allows for substantial upward movement in gold prices [1][3] Market Data - U.S. investors' gold ETF holdings are currently 6 basis points lower than the historical peak in 2012 [1][4] - In Q2 of this year, gold ETFs accounted for only 0.17% of U.S. private financial portfolios, which is negligible compared to the over $100 trillion stock and bond market [1][4] - More than half of large institutions managing over $100 million do not hold any gold ETFs, with long-term investors averaging only 20 basis points in allocation [4] Institutional Recommendations - Major Wall Street firms like UBS, Morgan Stanley, and BlackRock are actively advocating for increased gold positions, with notable investors like Ray Dalio viewing gold as a core strategic asset against macroeconomic uncertainties [2][4] - The gap between "sell-side recommendations" and "buy-side underexposure" is evolving into a strong catalyst for the next phase of gold price surges [2][4] Technological Developments - Tether's recent launch of the Scudo unit, which tokenizes gold and breaks it down to one-thousandth of an ounce, aims to address measurement challenges in daily commercial transactions [2][4] - This improvement in payment infrastructure is transitioning gold from a mere "store of value" to a "medium of exchange," expanding its application within the modern financial system [2][4] Long-term Outlook - The severe underexposure of institutional holdings combined with ongoing upgrades in trading infrastructure forms a dual engine for long-term gold price increases [5] - With persistent inflationary pressures and rising risk aversion, the current gold price breakout may signify the beginning of a redefined role for gold [5] - The upward momentum in the precious metals market appears to remain strong, as both silver and spot gold continue to reach new highs [5]

Core Viewpoint - The rare earth and precious metals sectors are experiencing significant price increases, driven by supply constraints and strong demand, particularly in the context of China's regulatory measures and global economic conditions [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The National Securities Nonferrous Metals Industry Index (399395) rose by 1.88%, with notable gains in individual stocks such as Rare Earth (600259) up 10.00%, Shengtun Mining (600711) up 9.01%, and Xingye Silver Tin (000426) up 7.57% [1]. - The Nonferrous ETF Fund (159880) increased by 2.01%, marking its fifth consecutive rise, with the latest price reported at 2.13 yuan [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - On the supply side, domestic rare earth supply regulation is expected to smooth out the issuance of quotas, while overseas supply is projected to continue growing as new projects come online [2]. - Demand for rare earths is anticipated to remain strong, particularly from the electric vehicle sector and robotics, further emphasizing the scarcity of resources and potentially driving prices higher [2]. Group 3: Gold and Silver Market Insights - Global central banks continue to increase their gold holdings, which supports the ongoing bullish trend in gold prices, especially during periods of interest rate cuts [2]. - Silver ETF holdings are expected to rise significantly by 2025, driven by its financial attributes, which will likely contribute to an increase in silver prices [2]. Group 4: Index Composition - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Securities Nonferrous Metals Industry Index (399395) include Zijin Mining (601899), Luoyang Molybdenum (603993), and Northern Rare Earth (600111), collectively accounting for 51.65% of the index [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that UBS has identified a "high-level frenzy" in the gold market, with a target price of $4,750 per ounce by 2026, and believes that the current upward trend in gold prices is not yet over despite concerns of nearing its peak [1][4] - The recent surge in gold prices is significantly influenced by the performance of platinum group metals, with platinum, silver, and palladium experiencing greater price increases, which has amplified the upward movement of gold in a thin liquidity market [2] - UBS highlights three core drivers supporting the long-term bullish outlook for gold: declining U.S. real interest rates, rising term premiums in developed markets, and strong demand for asset diversification [4][5] Group 2 - Demand for gold is being supported by multiple factors, including a long-term increase in Chinese investment in gold as confidence in traditional assets declines, with approximately $48 trillion in broad money shifting towards gold and equity markets [6] - Central banks and supranational institutions continue to purchase gold, with emerging market central banks likely to increase their gold reserves, providing a safety net for gold prices [7] - Private investment in gold remains stable, with consistent inflows into gold ETFs, indicating a rational approach to asset diversification among private investors, while gold mining stocks are seen as undervalued and have potential for price correction [8] Group 3 - UBS outlines three clear signals that would indicate the end of the gold price rally: the availability of Russian foreign exchange reserves for the central bank's use, the completion of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle, and increased certainty in global fiscal policies [9][10]

Group 1 - Gold and silver prices have surged at the beginning of 2026, with COMEX silver futures rising over 10% and gold futures increasing over 3% within just four trading days [1][2] - Predictions suggest that gold prices could reach $5000 per ounce and silver could hit $100 per ounce due to factors such as geopolitical tensions, central bank purchases, and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][6][7] - The precious metals sector has become a leading performer in the A-share market at the start of 2026, with significant inflows into gold and silver ETFs, including a single-day inflow of over 10 billion yuan into gold ETFs [3][4] Group 2 - The current gold bull market has lasted for three years, driven by geopolitical factors, central bank gold purchases, and weakening dollar credibility [4] - International institutions maintain an optimistic outlook for gold prices, with forecasts suggesting a potential decline to $4200 per ounce in Q1 2026, followed by a recovery to $4900 by the end of the year [5] - Silver's price performance is expected to be strong in 2026, supported by industrial demand in sectors such as photovoltaics and new energy, alongside financial attributes [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The volatility in global financial markets remains high as of January 6, 2026, with gold maintaining its status as a core safe-haven asset and a key source for investors to achieve excess returns (Alpha) [1][4] Group 1: Gold Market Outlook - The average price of gold is projected to remain high at $4,538 per ounce in 2026 according to leading industry analysis models [1][4] - The tightening situation in the gold mining industry is expected to worsen, with a forecasted 2% decline in production from 13 major North American gold miners, bringing output down to 19.2 million ounces [5] - The all-in sustaining cost (AISC) is anticipated to rise by 3% to around $1,600 per ounce, yet producers' profit outlook remains strong due to rising gold prices, with total EBITDA expected to increase by 41% to $65 billion in 2026 [5] Group 2: Silver Market Potential - The current gold-silver ratio of approximately 59 indicates that silver's upside potential has not been fully realized [2][5] - Historical analysis suggests that if the gold-silver ratio returns to the 2011 level of 32, silver prices could rise to $135, and if it mirrors the 1980 level of 14, prices could potentially exceed $309 [2][5] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Despite market concerns about high gold prices, the end of the gold bull market will depend on the disappearance of fundamental drivers rather than price levels [6] - High-net-worth professional investors currently hold only 0.5% of their portfolios in gold, significantly below the reasonable level, suggesting that increasing gold holdings to 20% or even 30% is a more prudent strategy [6] - Central banks' ongoing gold purchasing trend is expected to continue into 2026, with an ideal average allocation in official reserves being 30%, up from the current 15% [6] Group 4: Future Projections - Gold is viewed as both a shield against extreme risks and a spear for enhancing investment portfolio performance, with increasing retail investment demand and institutional buying supporting a potential surge in gold prices towards the $5,000 mark [3][6]

中国商报（记者 王彤旭 文/图）近期，黄金屡上热搜。2026年1月6日，周生生上调部分定价类金饰价格。据悉，周生生此次涨价幅度在200元 至1500元/款。 在刚刚过去的2025年，黄金成为全球金融市场最耀眼的"明星"，上演了一场波澜壮阔的牛市行情。2026年，黄金走势如何？业内人士认为， 从国际金价屡破历史纪录，到A股黄金股集体走强；从各国央行持续增持，到国内消费市场结构重塑，黄金市场在多重因素共振下迎来历史 性突破。 全面开花的牛市行情 回顾2025年，国际黄金价格迎来史诗级上涨，创下自1979年石油危机以来的最大年度涨幅。 截至2025年年末，伦敦现货黄金报4373.499美元/盎司，全年累计涨幅达67%，其间超50次刷新历史新高，一度逼近4600美元/盎司关口。从关 键节点来看，金价3月14日历史性突破3000美元/盎司，4月快速攀升至3500美元/盎司上方，年中经历短暂回调后，9月开启新一轮强势上涨， 10月8日突破4000美元/盎司整数关口，12月下旬站稳4500美元/盎司平台，上涨势头贯穿全年。 伴随着金价走强，其他贵金属同步走高，国际白银期价年内上涨约150%，一度突破80美元/盎司，铂金期货 ...

今日周二，黄金开盘先行走低，受到避险拉升后的获利了结，以及市场等待本周非农等重磅数据的公 布，而有所观望。 反之，如数据减弱降息前景，但只要没有完全消退降息预期，也都是多头的入场机会，再加上地缘局势 这十多年来一直都是处于不确定和升级的预期当中，目前市场也普遍预期美联储在2026年将至少降息两 次。特别是在宽松周期中，当下通胀率超过2%时，黄金价格回归历史平均上涨13%来看。金价2026仍 将维持牛市发展。 日图；金价昨日大幅反弹重返短期均线之上，多头占据优势，虽有缺口回补的风险，但在回补之前，仍 先维持正常的支撑看涨思路，下方关注5/10日均线支撑为多单入场位，上方关注布林带上轨或新高为目 标。 但如果地缘政治紧张局势进一步扩大，或美国经济数据强化了美联储将采取更激进宽松政策的预期，黄 金很可能再次挑战历史新高，并再度连续攀升。 综合来看，当下仍处于央行持续购金，避险需求和宽松周期等的共振局面，历史经验告诉我们，这将会 导致黄金的上涨空间和牛市动力继续延续和扩大。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market continues its strong momentum from 2025, driven by geopolitical tensions and expectations of lower interest rates from the Federal Reserve, with gold prices potentially exceeding $5,000 in 2026 [2][3] Market Analysis - Gold prices reached approximately $4,460 per ounce, with a significant increase attributed to geopolitical risks following U.S. military actions in Venezuela [1][2] - Silver prices also surged, rising 5.2% to $76.58 per ounce, with a remarkable annual increase of 147% in 2025 due to structural shortages and industrial demand [2] - The market is awaiting the release of key U.S. economic data, including the December non-farm payrolls, which could influence future Federal Reserve policies [2][3] Technical Analysis - The recent trading session showed a strong upward trend in gold and silver, with expectations for continued bullish momentum as long as key support levels hold [3][5] - The "head and shoulders" pattern in gold indicates a bullish outlook, with a target price of $4,500 in the near term [3][5] - Key support levels are identified around $4,405 to $4,395, while resistance is noted at approximately $4,491 [5][6] Trading Strategies - Suggested strategies include entering long positions on pullbacks to $4,425-$4,430 and short positions on rebounds near $4,490-$4,495, with specific stop-loss levels to manage risk [6]