Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Report's Core Viewpoints - Since Q3 2025, there has been a prevalent bearish sentiment in the bond market, with long - term bonds significantly adjusted and the term spread of ultra - long bonds notably widened. The current central economic work conference indicates that the current situation is still in a cycle of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the bond market in 2026 may perform better than expected [2]. - The net financing scale of government bonds in 2026 may slightly expand, with the deficit rate likely to remain around 4%. Under debt resolution, the financing demand of urban investment and credit demand may continue to be weak [2]. - The importance of social financing growth rate may decline, and the future may gradually淡化 the total social financing target and shift more towards interest rate regulation. It is expected that the social financing increment in 2026 will be around 34 trillion yuan, and the social financing growth rate will gradually drop to about 7.3% [2]. - Currently, the conditions for a further reduction in policy interest rates may be met. It is recommended to patiently wait for the policy interest rate cut, and it is expected that the policy interest rate will be cut by about 20BP in 2026, with a possible 10BP cut in the first quarter [2]. - It is recommended to focus on the allocation value of 5Y bank capital bonds and ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds [3]. Summaries Based on Related Content Bond Market Situation - As of December 11, the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds increased by 22BP compared to January 2, the yield of 30 - year treasury bonds increased by 38BP, and the yield of 5 - year commercial bank secondary capital bonds (AAA -) increased by 44BP. The "30Y - 10Y" treasury bond term spread reached 39BP on December 11, close to the upper limit of the [10,43]BP range since early 2023 [2]. Government Bond Financing - The central economic work conference's statement implies that the deficit rate in 2026 may remain around 4%, and the net issuance scale of government bonds may remain relatively stable. It is expected that the net financing scale of government bonds in 2026 will be about 14.5 trillion yuan, a slight increase year - on - year [2]. Social Financing - The central economic work conference did not mention the matching of social financing scale and money supply growth with economic growth and price level targets as in 2024. It is expected that the social financing increment in 2026 will be about 34 trillion yuan, and the social financing growth rate will gradually drop to about 7.3% [2]. Policy Interest Rate - The conditions for a policy interest rate cut may be met. The Fed cut interest rates by 75BP in the second half of the year, the Sino - US interest rate spread inversion has been significantly alleviated, the RMB exchange rate has changed from depreciation to a slight appreciation, the cost rate of banks' interest - bearing liabilities has declined steadily, and the economy is under downward pressure [2]. Bond Market Outlook - In 2026, the bond market may perform better than expected. It is expected that the policy interest rate will be cut by about 20BP in 2026, with a possible 10BP cut in the first quarter. In the long - term, the yield of 30Y treasury bonds is expected to fall below 2% [2][3]. Investment Recommendations - Currently, it is recommended to focus on the allocation value of 5Y bank capital bonds and ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds [3]

会议强调，要高标准高质量编制好财政"十五五"规划、会计"十五五"规划。临近岁末年初，要支持扎实 做好困难群众帮扶救助、安全生产、应急救灾等工作，下大气力兜牢民生底线。 财政部党组成员，中央纪委国家监委驻财政部纪检监察组负责同志，部机关各司局主要负责同志参加会 议。 更多解读查看专题： SFC 来源丨财政部网站 12月12日，财政部党组书记、部长蓝佛安主持召开党组会议，传达学习中央经济工作会议精神，研究财 政部门贯彻落实工作。 会议认为，这次的中央经济工作会议，是党的二十届四中全会之后中央召开的一次重要会议。习近平总 书记在会议上发表的重要讲话，全面总结2025年经济工作，深刻分析当前国内外形势，系统部署2026年 工作，具有很强的战略性、思想性、指导性，既举旗定向、指明"十五五"开局路径，又谋篇布局、擘画 明年抓落实重点，为做好财政工作指明了前进方向、提供了根本遵循。财政部门要深入学习贯彻习近平 总书记重要讲话精神和中央经济工作会议精神，深刻领会党中央对当前形势的重大判断，切实增强做好 经济财政工作的责任感使命感，进一步把思想、认识、行动统一到党中央决策部署上来，落实到研究预 算安排、实施财政政策、推进财税改 ...

智通财经APP获悉，据财政部消息，12月12日，财政部党组书记、部长蓝佛安主持召开党组会议，传达 学习中央经济工作会议精神，研究财政部门贯彻落实工作。会议指出，按照中央经济工作会议部署安 排，明年政策取向上，要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和 跨周期调节力度，提升宏观经济治理效能。财政部门要准确把握明年经济工作的总体要求和政策取向， 保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量，提高政策精准性和有效性。用好用足各类政府债券资 金，发行超长期特别国债，持续支持"两重"建设、"两新"工作。 原文如下： 财政部党组召开会议传达学习中央经济工作会议精神 12月12日，财政部党组书记、部长蓝佛安主持召开党组会议，传达学习中央经济工作会议精神，研究财 政部门贯彻落实工作。 会议认为，这次的中央经济工作会议，是党的二十届四中全会之后中央召开的一次重要会议。习近平总 书记在会议上发表的重要讲话，全面总结2025年经济工作，深刻分析当前国内外形势，系统部署2026年 工作，具有很强的战略性、思想性、指导性，既举旗定向、指明"十五五"开局路径，又谋篇布局、擘画 明年抓落实重点，为做好财政工作指明了 ...

中央经济工作会议指出，明年继续实施更加积极的财政政策。如何理解明年财政政策的取向？来看专家的解读。 中央经济工作会议指出，要继续实施更加积极的财政政策，保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量。专家表示，明年的财政政策取向与2025年保持了 一致。 中国财政科学研究院院长 杨志勇：明年继续实施更加积极的财政政策，这是基于对国内外经济形势判断所作出的选择。这也可以看到政策是一以贯之的， 是保持相当力度的。跟明年的经济工作的目标来说是相称的，它能够支撑经济目标的实现。 粤开证券首席经济学家 研究院院长 罗志恒：从量的角度，我们要确保必要的财政赤字规模、新增债务总规模以及必要的财政支出力度。通过政府的支出， 比如政府采购以及基建工程项目来扩大社会的总需求，来形成我们居民部门、企业部门的收入，推动经济运行的循环。第二个就是结构的优化，要坚持将投 资于物和投资于人的结合，提高居民的医疗、教育和养老，这样的话居民的后顾之忧得到了缓解，进而有利于去释放潜在的消费需求。 优化"两新""两重"政策 提高财政资金使用效率 实施更加积极的财政政策，如何确保财政资金使用更加高效，让每一分钱都花到刀刃上？继续来看专家的解读。 中央经济 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy in the coming year, maintaining necessary fiscal deficits, total debt scale, and overall expenditure levels, aligning with the goals set for 2025 [4]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy Direction - The fiscal policy direction for next year is consistent with the goals for 2025, focusing on ensuring necessary fiscal deficits and new debt scales, as well as maintaining fiscal expenditure intensity [4]. - The proactive fiscal policy aims to expand social demand through government spending, such as procurement and infrastructure projects, which will generate income for households and businesses, thus promoting economic circulation [6]. Group 2: Structural Optimization - The policy emphasizes the combination of investment in physical assets and human capital, improving healthcare, education, and elderly care, which alleviates residents' concerns and releases potential consumer demand [6]. - The continuation of a proactive fiscal policy is a strategic choice based on assessments of domestic and international economic conditions, supporting the achievement of economic targets [7]. Group 3: Efficiency of Fiscal Fund Utilization - The conference highlights the need to strengthen fiscal management, optimize expenditure structures, and standardize tax incentives and fiscal subsidy policies to enhance the efficiency of fiscal fund utilization [11]. - Optimizing expenditure structures will free up financial resources that can be directed towards improving public welfare, including healthcare, education, and elderly care [13]. Group 4: Market Integration - Standardizing tax incentives and fiscal subsidies is crucial for promoting the modernization of fiscal and tax systems and facilitating the construction of a unified national market [15]. - The optimization of "two new" and "two heavy" policies aims to enhance consumer experience and ensure that major projects deliver greater benefits, ultimately driving a rebound in consumption and investment [17].

12月13日，2025-2026中国经济年会召开，主题为"贯彻落实中央经济工作会议精神，以高质量发展 为'十五五'开好局"。中央财办分管日常工作的副主任、中央农办主任韩文秀，国家发展改革委副秘书 长肖渭明，中国国际经济交流中心副理事长王一鸣发表演讲。 韩文秀：明年还将根据形势变化 出台实施增量政策 韩文秀表示，做好明年经济工作，要坚持稳中求进，提质增效，加大逆周期和跨周期调节，切实提升宏 观经济治理效能。去年9月26日中央政治局会议以来，先后出台实施了一系列政策措施，明年还将根据 形势变化出台实施增量政策。要协同发挥存量政策和增量政策的集成效应，推动经济稳中向好。市场经 济很大程度上是预期经济，要健全预期管理机制，做好经济宣传和舆论引导，及时回应市场关切，有效 提振社会信心。 具体而言，韩文秀表示，要继续实施更加积极的财政政策。要保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出 总量。既着眼当前，用好用足政策空间，也为应对未来风险留有余地，确保财政可持续。现在一些地方 财政困难，要建立健全增收节支机制，增强地方自主财力，兜牢基层"三保"底线。要优化支出结构，强 化国家重大战略的财力保障，推动更多资金资源投资于人，统筹用好 ...

央视网消息：中央经济工作会议指出，2026年继续实施更加积极的财政政策。如何理解2026年财政政策的取向？ 中央经济工作会议指出，要继续实施更加积极的财政政策，保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量。专家表示，2026年的财政政策取向 与2025年保持了一致。 提高财政资金使用效率 更多资金投到民生 中国财政科学研究院院长杨志勇表示，2026年继续实施更加积极的财政政策，这是基于对国内外经济形势判断所作出的选择。这也可以看到政 策是一以贯之的，是保持相当力度的。跟2026年的经济工作的目标来说是相称的，它能够支撑经济目标的实现。 粤开证券首席经济学家、研究院院长罗志恒表示，从量的角度，要确保必要的财政赤字规模，新增债务总规模以及必要的财政支出力度。通过 政府的支出，比如政府采购以及基建工程项目来扩大社会的总需求，形成居民部门、企业部门的收入，推动经济运行的循环。第二是结构的优 化，要坚持将投资于物和投资于人的结合，提高居民的医疗、教育和养老，这样居民的后顾之忧得到了缓解，进而有利于去释放潜在的消费需 求。 实施更加积极的财政政策，如何确保财政资金使用更加高效，让每一分钱都花到"刀刃"上？ 中央经济工作会议指 ...

Group 1 - The core message emphasizes the need to address overdue corporate payments and prevent future occurrences, while promoting a unified national market and fair competition [1] - The government aims to optimize the implementation of the "two new" policies, granting local authorities more autonomy [1][2] - The focus is on enhancing consumer spending through initiatives like the "old-for-new" policy and increasing the supply of quality goods and services [2] Group 2 - The government plans to synchronize income growth with economic growth, maintaining stability in employment and prices [3] - There is a commitment to expand both exports and imports, fostering sustainable foreign trade development [4] - A proactive fiscal policy will be maintained, ensuring necessary fiscal deficits and debt levels while supporting domestic demand [5] Group 3 - The government has made progress in risk mitigation in key areas, including the orderly replacement of local government hidden debts and the completion of housing delivery tasks [7] - China's GDP is projected to reach approximately 140 trillion yuan this year, with major economic indicators performing better than expected [7][8] - The government emphasizes the importance of innovation and technology in driving industrial upgrades and creating new growth points [2][8] Group 4 - The government outlines five essential principles for economic work under new circumstances, focusing on maximizing economic potential, combining policy support with reform, and ensuring effective management [6][8] - There is a strong emphasis on investing in both physical and human capital to enhance overall development and well-being [8] - The government aims to strengthen its own economy to better respond to external challenges and enhance its competitive position globally [8]

当前，我国经济面临国内有效需求不足、国内供强需弱矛盾突出，以及外部环境复杂性、严峻 性、不确定性上升的双重挑战。在此背景下，更好统筹国内经济工作与国际经贸斗争，加快建 设强大国内市场，增强国内大循环内生动力和可靠性，已成为夯实发展根基、应对风险挑战的 必然选择。 近日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行。会议确定，明年经济工作抓好八项重点任务，其中， "坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场"居于首位。 根据会议部署，围绕建设强大国内市场的目标，明年将继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽 松的货币政策。这将为内需扩张创造适宜环境。在财政政策方面，会议提出，保持必要的财政 赤字、债务总规模和支出总量，以及"重视解决地方财政困难"等。这预示着中央财政将承担更 多责任，发挥更大的主导与兜底作用。在货币政策方面，政策将以促进经济稳定增长与物价合 理回升为重要考量，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保持流动性充裕，畅通货币政策 传导机制等。 今年以来，社会消费品零售总额增速有所下滑，既反映了促消费政策的边际效应变化，也受基 数抬高等因素影响，明年稳消费需付出更大努力。在提振消费方面，在供给端，会议提出深入 实施提振消费专项行动，扩大优 ...

Group 1 - The central bank's latest data shows that M2 and social financing scale growth rates remain high, creating a favorable monetary environment for economic recovery [2][8] - As of the end of November, the broad money (M2) balance reached 336.99 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.0%, which is 0.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year [2] - The total social financing scale stood at 440.07 trillion yuan, growing by 8.5% year-on-year, which is 0.7 percentage points higher than the previous year [2] Group 2 - Government bond financing has significantly contributed to the growth of social financing, with net financing of government bonds reaching 13.15 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.61 trillion yuan year-on-year [3] - The total new government debt for the year is projected to be 11.86 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan compared to last year [3][4] - Direct financing through corporate bonds and equity financing is also accelerating, with corporate bond financing amounting to 2.24 trillion yuan, an increase of 312.5 billion yuan year-on-year [3] Group 3 - The growth rate of loans has shown a downward trend, with a total increase of 15.36 trillion yuan in RMB loans in the first eleven months [5][6] - The increase in loans to the real economy was 14.93 trillion yuan, which is 1.28 trillion yuan less than the previous year [6] - The decline in loan growth is attributed to various factors, including the replacement of loans by diversified financing methods and the impact of local government debt [6][7] Group 4 - The current social financing scale and M2 growth rates are approximately double the nominal GDP growth rate, indicating a moderately loose monetary policy environment [8] - The central bank has maintained a stable funding environment and supported the smooth issuance of government bonds through comprehensive measures [9] - Coordination between monetary and fiscal policies is emphasized as crucial for supporting economic stability and structural adjustments [9]